Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Black Carbon, and Aerosols ������������������������������������������������������������������������611

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Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Black Carbon, and Aerosols ������������������������������������������������������������������������611 8 Transport Coordinating Lead Authors: Ralph Sims (New Zealand), Roberto Schaeffer (Brazil) Lead Authors: Felix Creutzig (Germany), Xochitl Cruz-Núñez (Mexico), Marcio D’Agosto (Brazil), Delia Dimitriu (Romania / UK), Maria Josefina Figueroa Meza (Venezuela / Denmark), Lew Fulton (USA), Shigeki Kobayashi (Japan), Oliver Lah (Germany), Alan McKinnon (UK / Germany), Peter Newman (Australia), Minggao Ouyang (China), James Jay Schauer (USA), Daniel Sperling (USA), Geetam Tiwari (India) Contributing Authors: Adjo A. Amekudzi (USA), Bruno Soares Moreira Cesar Borba (Brazil), Helena Chum (Brazil / USA), Philippe Crist (France / USA), Han Hao (China), Jennifer Helfrich (USA), Thomas Longden (Australia / Italy), André Frossard Pereira de Lucena (Brazil), Paul Peeters (Netherlands), Richard Plevin (USA), Steve Plotkin (USA), Robert Sausen (Germany) Review Editors: Elizabeth Deakin (USA), Suzana Kahn Ribeiro (Brazil) Chapter Science Assistant: Bruno Soares Moreira Cesar Borba (Brazil) This chapter should be cited as: Sims R., R. Schaeffer, F. Creutzig, X. Cruz-Núñez, M. D’Agosto, D. Dimitriu, M. J. Figueroa Meza, L. Fulton, S. Kobayashi, O. Lah, A. McKinnon, P. Newman, M. Ouyang, J. J. Schauer, D. Sperling, and G. Tiwari, 2014: Transport. In: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovern- mental Panel on Climate Change [Edenhofer, O., R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, K. Seyboth, A. Adler, I. Baum, S. Brunner, P. Eickemeier, B. Kriemann, J. Savolainen, S. Schlömer, C. von Stechow, T. Zwickel and J.C. Minx (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. 599 Transport Chapter 8 Contents Executive Summary � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 603 8 8�1 Freight and passenger transport (land, air, sea and water) � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 605 8�1�1 The context for transport of passengers and freight � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 606 8�1�2 Energy demands and direct / indirect emissions � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 608 8�2 New developments in emission trends and drivers � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 610 8�2�1 Trends � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 611 8.2.1.1 Non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions, black carbon, and aerosols ������������������������������������������������������������������������611 8�2�2 Drivers � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 612 8�3 Mitigation technology options, practices and behavioural aspects � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 613 8�3�1 Energy intensity reduction — incremental vehicle technologies � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 613 8.3.1.1 Light duty vehicles ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������613 8.3.1.2 Heavy-duty vehicles ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������613 8.3.1.3 Rail, waterborne craft, and aircraft ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������614 8�3�2 Energy intensity reduction — advanced propulsion systems � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 614 8.3.2.1 Road vehicles — battery and fuel cell ­­electric-drives ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������614 8.3.2.2 Rail, waterborne craft, and aircraft ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������615 8�3�3 Fuel carbon intensity reduction � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 615 8�3�4 Comparative analysis � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 616 8�3�5 Behavioural aspects � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 616 8�4 Infrastructure and systemic perspectives� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 618 8�4�1 Path dependencies of infrastructure and GHG emission impacts � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 618 8�4�2 Path dependencies of urban form and mobility � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 619 8.4.2.1 Modal shift opportunities for passengers ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������620 8.4.2.2 Modal shift opportunities for freight ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������621 600 Chapter 8 Transport 8�5 Climate change feedback and interaction with adaptation � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 622 8�5�1 Accessibility and feasibility of transport routes � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 622 8�5�2 Relocation of production and reconfiguration of global supply chains � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 622 8�5�3 Fuel combustion and technologies � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 622 8 8�5�4 Transport infrastructure � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 623 8�6 Costs and potentials � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 630 8�7 Co-benefits, risks and spillovers � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 630 8�7�1 Socio-economic, environmental, and health effects � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 633 8�7�2 Technical risks and uncertainties � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 633 8�7�3 Technological spillovers � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 633 8�8 Barriers and opportunities � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 633 8�8�1 Barriers and opportunities to reduce GHGs by technologies and practices � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 633 8�8�2 Financing low-carbon transport � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 636 8�8�3 Institutional, cultural, and legal barriers and opportunities � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 636 8�9 Sectoral implications of transformation pathways and sustainable development � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 637 8�9�1 Long term stabilization goals — integrated and sectoral perspectives � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 637 8�9�2 Sustainable development � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 641 8�10 Sectoral policies � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 642 8�10�1 Road transport � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �
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