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The United States in the Indo-​Pacific: Obama's Legacy and the Trump Transition

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The United States in the Indo-​Pacific: Obama's Legacy and the Trump Transition i The United States in the Indo- Pacific ii iii The United States in the Indo- Pacific Obama’s legacy and the Trump transition Edited by Oliver Turner and Inderjeet Parmar Manchester University Press iv Copyright © Manchester University Press 2020 While copyright in the volume as a whole is vested in Manchester University Press, copyright in individual chapters belongs to their respective authors. This electronic version has been made freely available under a Creative (CC-BY-NC-ND) licence, which permits non-commercial use, distribution and reproduction provided the editor(s), chapter author(s) and Manchester University Press are fully cited and no modifi cations or adaptations are made. Details of the licence can be viewed at https:// creativecommons.org/ licenses/ by- nc- nd/ 4.0/ Published by Manchester University Press Altrincham Street, Manchester M1 7JA www.manchesteruniversitypress.co.uk British Library Cataloguing- in- Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library ISBN 978 1 5261 3501 8 hardback ISBN 978 1 5261 3503 2 paperback ISBN 978 1 5261 3502 5 open access First published 2020 The publisher has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for any external or third- party internet websites referred to in this book, and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate. Cover image: © Rob Pinney Typeset by Newgen Publishing UK v Contents List of figures vii List of contributors viii List of abbreviations xi Introduction: The United States in the Asia and Indo- Pacifics 1 Inderjeet Parmar Part I Obama’s legacy in Asia and the Pacific 11 1 US imperial hegemony in the American Pacific 13 Oliver Turner 2 Humanitarian hawk meets rising dragon: Obama’s legacy in US China policy 29 Peter Gries 3 The Obama administration and India 44 Christopher K. Colley and Sumit Ganguly 4 Obama and Japan: An endangered legacy 63 Matteo Dian 5 Obama, Trump and North Korea 79 Bruce Cumings 6 The United States and Australia: Deepening ties and securitising cyberspace 94 Maryanne Kelton and Zac Rogers 7 Obama’s legacy in US– ASEAN relations: Promises and perils 111 Prashanth Parameswaran 8 The Obama administration and the East Asia Summit: Exception, not transformation 125 Malcolm Cook Part II The United States in Asia and the Pacific under Trump 141 9 Obama, Trump and US politics and diplomacy towards Asia 143 Robert Sutter 10 Security policy in Asia from Obama to Trump: Autopilot, neglect or worse? 161 Nick Bisley vi vi Contents 11 A grand strategic transition? Obama, Trump and the Asia Pacific political economy 177 Michael Mastanduno Part III From Obama to Trump in Asia and the Pacific: The practitioners’ view 193 12 From Obama to Trump, and beyond: Washington’s painful search for a credible China policy 195 Börje Ljunggren 13 Multilateralism to transactionalism: America and Trump in the Asia Pacific 210 Ketan Patel and Christian Hansmeyer 14 Obama and Trump’s marine machismo in the Indo- Pacific 226 Atul Bhardwaj Conclusion: Legacies and transitions in the twenty- first-century Indo- Pacific 241 Inderjeet Parmar and Oliver Turner Index 253 vii Figures 3.1 Indian favourability ratings of the United States. (Calculated from Pew Research Center, ‘Global Attitudes and Trends’, www.pewglobal.org/ question- search/ ?qid=885&cntIDs=@20- @20.5- @20.1- &stdIDs=, accessed 10 March 2019.) 49 3.2 Indian favourability ratings of Americans. (Calculated from Pew Research Center, ‘Global Attitudes and Trends’, www.pewglobal.org/ question- search/ ?qid=824&cntIDs=@20- @20.5- @20.1- &stdIDs=, accessed 10 March 2019. For 2017 data see www.pewglobal.org/ database/ indicator/ 2/ country/ 100/ , accessed 10 March 2019.) 49 3.3 Indian confidence in the American president. (Calculated from Pew Research Center, ‘Global Attitudes and Trends’, www.pewglobal.org/ question- search/ ?qid=724&cntIDs=@20- @20.5- @20.1- &stdIDs=, accessed 10 March 2019.) 50 3.4 American trade with India under Bush and Obama. (Calculated from Bureau of Economic Analysis, ‘International Economic Accounts’, www.bea.gov/ international/ index.htm#trade, accessed 10 March 2019.) 52 3.5 Bilateral Indo- US FDI. (Calculated from Bureau of Economic Analysis, ‘International Economic Accounts’, www.bea.gov/ international/ index.htm#trade, accessed 10 March 2019.) 53 3.6 Sino- Indian bilateral trade. (Calculated from World Bank, ‘World Integrated Trade Solution’, https:// wits.worldbank.org/ Country Profile/ en/ Country/ IND/ StartYear/ 2013/ EndYear/ 2017/ TradeFlow/ Export/ Indicator/ XPRT- TRD- VL/ Partner/ CHN/ Product/ All- Groups, accessed 10 March 2019.) 55 3.7 Indian arms imports in SIPRI’s trend indicator values. (Calculated from ‘SIPRI Arms Transfer Database’, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, www.sipri.org/ databases/ armstransfers, accessed 10 March 2019. SIPRI calculates these values in the Trend Indicator Value. See ‘SIPRI Arms Transfer Database – Methodology’, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, www.sipri.org/ databases/ armstransfers/ background, accessed 10 March 2019.) 57 viii Contributors Atul Bhardwaj is a former Indian naval officer and an Honorary Research Fellow at City, University of London. He is also an Adjunct Fellow at the Institute of Chinese Studies, Delhi. He holds a PhD in History from Ambedkar University, Delhi. He is the author of India- America Relations (1942–62): Rooted in the Liberal International Order (Routledge, 2019). Nick Bisley is the Head of Humanities and Social Sciences and Professor of International Relations at La Trobe University, Australia. Christopher K. Colley is an Assistant Professor at the National Defense College of the United Arab Emirates. His research focuses on the international relations and security of the Indo- Pacific with a particular focus on China and India. He holds a PhD in Political Science from Indiana University Bloomington and an MA in Chinese studies from Renmin University of China in Beijing. Malcolm Cook is a Senior Fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. Malcolm has worked in Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Australia and Singapore with a focus on regional security in East Asia. Bruce Cumings is Gustavus F. and Ann M. Swift Distinguished Service Professor in History, at the University of Chicago. He is the author of numerable books and articles, including The Origins of the Korean War, volumes one and two (Princeton University Press, 1981 and 1990) and Dominion from Sea to Sea: Pacific Ascendancy and American Power (Yale University Press, 2009). Matteo Dian is an Assistant Professor at the University of Bologna, Italy. His work on US foreign policy in East Asia and Japanese and Chinese foreign policies appears in Pacific Review, International Relations and International Politics, among others. His most recent monograph is New Regional Initiatives in Chinese Foreign Policy: The Incoming Pluralism of Global Governance (Palgrave Macmillan, 2018, with Silvia Menegazzi). Sumit Ganguly is a Distinguished Professor of Political Science and holds the Tagore Chair in Indian Cultures and Civilizations at Indiana University, Bloomington. Professor Ganguly is also a Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia, a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. ix Contributors ix Peter Gries is the Lee Kai Hung Chair and founding Director of the Manchester China Institute, and Professor of Chinese politics at the University of Manchester. He is author of The Politics of American Foreign Policy: How Ideology Divides Liberals and Conservatives over Foreign Affairs (Stanford University Press, 2014) and China’s New Nationalism: Pride, Politics, and Diplomacy (University of California Press, 2004). He is also co-editor of State and Society in 21st Century China (Routledge, 2004) and Chinese Politics: State, Society and the Market (Routledge, 2010). Christian Hansmeyer is one of the founding members of Greater Pacific Capital and a senior investment manager based in Shanghai. Previously, he worked in the investment banking division of Goldman Sachs. Maryanne Kelton is Senior Lecturer in International Relations at the Jeff Bleich Centre for the US Alliance in Digital Technology, Security, and Governance at Flinders University of South Australia. Börje Ljunggren is former Swedish Ambassador to China and Vietnam, and former Head of the Asia Department of the Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs and the Swedish International Development Agency. He is an Associate of the Asia Center at Harvard University and the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, and author of Den Kinesiska Drömmen – Xi, Makten Och Utmaningarna (The Chinese Dream – Xi, Power and Challenges, Hjalmarson & Högberg, 2017). Michael Mastanduno is Nelson Rockefeller Professor of Government at Dartmouth College. His recent work on international relations theory and US foreign policy has appeared in Security Studies and British Journal of Politics and International Relations. Prashanth Parameswaran is a Fellow at the Wilson Center’s Asia Program and senior editor at The Diplomat magazine based in Washington, DC. His work on Southeast Asia, Asian security issues, and US foreign policy in the Asia Pacific has appeared in a range of publications in the United States and in Asia. Inderjeet Parmar is Professor of International Politics and Head of the Department of International Politics at City, University of London. He is a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences (FAcSS) and a former president of the British International Studies Association. His latest book is Foundations of the American Century: Ford, Carnegie, and Rockefeller Foundations in the Rise of American Power (Columbia University Press, 2012). Ketan Patel is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Greater Pacific Capital and was previously a Managing Director at Goldman Sachs. His career spans industry, consulting and investment banking. He is the author of The Master Strategist (Arrow Books, 2011). x x Contributors Zac Rogers is Research Lead at the Jeff Bleich Centre for the US Alliance in Digital Technology, Security, and Governance at Flinders University of South Australia.
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