Projecting Marine Fish Production and Catch Potential in Bangladesh in the 21 Century Under Long-Term Environmental Change and M
1 Projecting marine fish production and catch potential in Bangladesh in the 21 st century 2 under long-term environmental change and management scenarios 3 Jose A. Fernandes 1, Susan Kay 1, Mostafa A.R. Hossain 2, Munir Ahmed 3, William W.L. 4 Cheung 4, Attila N. Lazar 5, Manuel Barange 1 5 6 7 1. Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, Plymouth, U.K. PL13 DH 8 2. Department of Fish, Biology and Genetics. Bangladesh Agricultural University, 9 Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh. 10 3. TARA, 1 Purbachal Road, Nartheast Badda, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh 11 4. Fisheries Centre, AERL 2202 Main Mall, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, 12 B.C., Canada, V6T 1Z4 13 5. Faculty of Engineering and Environment, University of Southampton, University Road, 14 Southampton, Hampshire, United Kingdom, SO17 1BJ. 15 16 17 18 Abstract 19 20 The fisheries sector is crucial to the Bangladeshi economy and wellbeing, accounting for 21 4.4% of national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 22.8% of agriculture sector production, 22 and supplying ca. 60% of the national animal protein intake. Fish is vital to the 16 million 23 Bangladeshis living near the coast, a number that has doubled since the 1980s. Here we 24 develop and apply tools to project the long term productive capacity of Bangladesh marine 25 fisheries under climate and fisheries management scenarios, based on downscaling a global 26 climate model, using associated river flow and nutrient loading estimates, projecting high 27 resolution changes in physical and biochemical ocean properties, and eventually projecting 28 fish production and catch potential under different fishing mortality targets.
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