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Projecting Marine Fish Production and Catch Potential in Bangladesh in the 21 Century Under Long-Term Environmental Change and M

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Projecting Marine Fish Production and Catch Potential in Bangladesh in the 21 Century Under Long-Term Environmental Change and M 1 Projecting marine fish production and catch potential in Bangladesh in the 21 st century 2 under long-term environmental change and management scenarios 3 Jose A. Fernandes 1, Susan Kay 1, Mostafa A.R. Hossain 2, Munir Ahmed 3, William W.L. 4 Cheung 4, Attila N. Lazar 5, Manuel Barange 1 5 6 7 1. Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, Plymouth, U.K. PL13 DH 8 2. Department of Fish, Biology and Genetics. Bangladesh Agricultural University, 9 Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh. 10 3. TARA, 1 Purbachal Road, Nartheast Badda, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh 11 4. Fisheries Centre, AERL 2202 Main Mall, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, 12 B.C., Canada, V6T 1Z4 13 5. Faculty of Engineering and Environment, University of Southampton, University Road, 14 Southampton, Hampshire, United Kingdom, SO17 1BJ. 15 16 17 18 Abstract 19 20 The fisheries sector is crucial to the Bangladeshi economy and wellbeing, accounting for 21 4.4% of national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 22.8% of agriculture sector production, 22 and supplying ca. 60% of the national animal protein intake. Fish is vital to the 16 million 23 Bangladeshis living near the coast, a number that has doubled since the 1980s. Here we 24 develop and apply tools to project the long term productive capacity of Bangladesh marine 25 fisheries under climate and fisheries management scenarios, based on downscaling a global 26 climate model, using associated river flow and nutrient loading estimates, projecting high 27 resolution changes in physical and biochemical ocean properties, and eventually projecting 28 fish production and catch potential under different fishing mortality targets. We place 29 particular interest on Hilsa shad (Tenualosa ilisha ), which accounts for ca. 11% of total 30 catches, and Bombay duck (Harpadon nehereus ), a low price fish that is the second highest 31 catch in Bangladesh and is highly consumed by low income communities. It is concluded that 32 the impacts of climate change, under greenhouse emissions scenario A1B, are likely to reduce 33 the potential fish production in the Bangladesh Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) by less than 34 10%. However, these impacts are larger for the two target species. Under sustainable 35 management practices we expect Hilsa shad catches to show a minor decline in potential 36 catch by 2030 but a significant (25%) decline by 2060. However, if overexploitation is 37 allowed catches are projected to fall much further, by almost 95% by 2060, compared to the 38 Business as Usual scenario for the start of the 21 st century. For Bombay duck, potential 39 catches by 2060 under sustainable scenarios will produce a decline of less than 20% 40 compared to current catches. The results demonstrate that management can mitigate or 41 exacerbate the effects of climate change on ecosystem productivity. 42 43 Introduction 44 Bangladesh is recognized as being highly vulnerable to the potential impacts of global and 45 regional climate change due to its geographic location and low-lying topography, putting it at 46 risk of extreme flooding and weather events. The Bangladesh delta region is home to over 47 500 million of some of the poorest people worldwide (FAO, 2007), who rely on the rich 48 ecosystem services available (Newton et al., 2007; Shamsuddoha and Chowdhury, 2007). The 49 coastal population of Bangladesh has doubled since the 1980s, now reaching in excess of 16 50 million (~ 10 % of the total population), most of them experiencing both poverty and 51 environmental vulnerability. It is known that in economic systems close to or below the 52 poverty line, both subsistence and cash elements of the economy rely disproportionately on 53 ecosystem services (Newton et al., 2007; Allison, 2009). Understanding the effects of climate 54 change on ecosystem services is thus particularly relevant in poor regions (Nicholls et al., 55 2015). 56 57 Fisheries play an important provisioning service in Bangladesh, supplying 60% of the protein 58 intake (DoF, 2013). Fisheries catches can be divided into marine ( ca. 17%), inland open 59 water or captured ( ca. 28%) and closed water or cultured ( ca. 55%). Inland open water 60 includes river and estuaries, the Sundarbans mangrove area, shallow marshy lakes known as 61 Beels, Kaptai Lake and seasonally flooded plains. Inland closed water corresponds to ponds, 62 semi-enclosed water bodies, lakes and shrimp/prawn farms. Although cultured fisheries 63 dominate the catch data, these depend strongly on river and marine ecosystems for the 64 provision of larvae and juveniles. Marine catches come from the Bangladesh Exclusive 65 Economic Zone (EEZ), which covers an area of 86,392 km 2, and represent an important 66 economic activity, with 0.55 Mt of fish production in 2011. About 225 trawlers and 52,514 67 mechanized and non-mechanized boats are engaged in fishing (DoF, 2013). Climate change 68 has been predicted to decrease the productive potential of fisheries in South and Southeast 69 Asia (Barange et al., 2014). Understanding how this impact translates into the future 70 provision of fish products in Bangladesh is crucial for the sustainability of fisheries 71 dependent communities in coming decades. 72 73 In this paper we assess the impacts of climate change on Bangladesh’s fish resources by 74 quantifying the cumulative physical, biological and ecological impacts in the EEZ of 75 Bangladesh over the 21 st century, and how these affect the fish production potential in the 76 coastal zone. We include a set of contrasting management and exploitation scenarios for the 77 EEZ of Bangladesh to project plausible scenarios of fish production by 2060 that combine 78 sustainable management and environmental impacts. These scenarios are specifically focused 79 on the two species that provide the largest marine and inland catches, Hilsa shad, Tenualosa 80 ilisha, and Bombay duck, Harpadon nehereus. The management scenarios are intended to 81 inform fisheries managers in Bangladesh in the pursuit of sustainable management strategies 82 under a future dominated by climate change. 83 84 Hilsa shad is a euryhaline anadromous shad found in marine, coastal and freshwater 85 environments, often schooling in coastal waters. Hilsa is the single most important fish 86 species in Bangladesh, accounting for more than 10% of the total national fish production, 87 and responsible for about 1% of Bangladesh’s GDP. About 460,000 fishers of 148 Upazilas 88 (sub-districts) are directly employed in Hilsa fishing with an indirect employment of about 89 2.5 million people in the wider Hilsa sector (trading, processing etc.). Bombay duck is the 90 second highest catch in Bangladesh and a much cheaper fish than Hilsa Shad ( approx. 65 91 BDT.kg -1 vs 430 BDT.kg -1, unpublished data). As it is cheap and still caught in abundance, 92 Bombay duck, currently, is one of the most preferred fish for poor and middle class 93 consumers all over the coast (on average, 14% of all daily sales is Bombay duck). Dried 94 Bombay duck is also regarded as the number one dried fish and is very popular, particularly 95 in the eastern part of the coast. It is a very soft and highly perishable table fish and also 96 valuable in laminated or dried from. 97 98 Growth of human populations and changes in global consumption patterns will continue to 99 place heavy demands on fish populations (Delgado et al., 2003), particularly in fish- 100 dependent regions like Bangladesh (Toufique and Belton 2014). Here we used quantitative 101 scenarios of climate and socio-economic changes in the Bangladeshi marine ecosystem and 102 its major fish species to assist in the development of adaptation measures. 103 104 105 106 Material and Methods 107 108 In order to provide estimates of fish production potential under climate change we used a 109 combination of atmospheric, hydrological, ocean circulation and ocean biogeochemical 110 models, driving changes in ocean productivity and fisheries potential (Fig. 1). These models 111 produce yearly time steps and spatially resolved results. The Bay of Bengal (BoB) physico- 112 biogeochemical model simulates the cycling of the main nutrients through the benthic and 113 planktonic pelagic ecosystems. Outputs from this model drive two fisheries models: a size- 114 spectrum model to provide time-series of total marine fish production by size, and a species- 115 based model to compute total marine production of the main species by size. The effects of 116 human activities and fisheries management policies were explored through fishing mortality 117 scenarios. Details of each model are provided below. 118 119 Climate and hydrological models 120 Previous climate modelling studies in this region have tended to focus on the wider Indian 121 subcontinent rather than Bangladesh. Most studies project a generic increase in atmospheric 122 temperature, annual rainfall and heavy precipitation events. Climate data for this study was 123 taken from the UK Met Office regional climate model (RCM) HadRM3P, which is 124 dynamically downscaled from the global circulation model HadCM3 (Caesar et al., 2015). 125 The greenhouse gas emission scenario used here is the Special Report on Emissions 126 Scenarios (SRES) A1B (IPCC 2007), a medium-high emissions scenario developed for 127 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 3rd and 4 th Assessment Reports, which 128 still underpins research into climate impacts. In order to capture some of the model 129 uncertainties we considered three different climate projections from a 17-member ensemble 130 of HadCM3 runs (Caesar et al 2015). The three climate model runs selected correspond to a 131 range of possible future outcomes for the Bay of Bengal, between the standard (Q0), drier 132 and warmer (Q16) and intermediate rainfall and temperature (Q8) projections (Caesar et al., 133 2015).
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