Lessons from the Tequila Crisis
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Mexico's Economic Competitiveness Strategy at a Geopolitical Inflection
A NEW ADMINISTRATION CONFRONTS A CHANGING WORLD: MEXICO’S ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS STRATEGY AT A GEOPOLITICAL INFLECTION POINT CHRISTOPHER WILSON GOVERNANCE | MAY 2019 A NEW ADMINISTRATION CONFRONTS A CHANGING WORLD: MEXICO’S ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS STRATEGY AT A GEOPOLITICAL INFLECTION POINT CHRISTOPHER WILSON EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Some three decades ago, Mexico made a bet on the global economy, and at a time when populism and protectionism are on the rise, the payoff is at risk. In response, Mexico must double down on its openness while addressing the critical structural problems, including corruption and inequality, that inhibit its domestic economy and led to the sweeping electoral victory of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) in 2018. This essay reviews Mexico’s economic progress and the challenges ahead as a new administration takes office at a time of significant stress on regional and global economic institutions. For more than a half-century following the Mexican Revolution, the country’s foreign policy was based on the principal of noninterventionism, a not so subtle way of telling the United States and others not to meddle in Mexico’s domestic affairs. The economic equivalent was Mexico’s policy of import substitution, which raised tariffs and barriers to foreign investment designed to protect the country’s domestic industries from international competition. The two combined to make Mexico an insular country, and despite the significant economic expansion achieved in the decades following World War II, by the 1970s, Mexico’s economy and politics were showing signs of strain. In the following decade, Mexico’s relationship with the world was flipped on its head. -
Becle, S.A.B. De C.V
[Translation for informational purposes only] ANNUAL REPORT FILED IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE GENERAL PROVISIONS APPLICABLE TO ISSUERS OF SECURITIES AND TO OTHER PARTICIPANTS IN THE SECURITIES MARKET, FOR THE YEAR ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2018. BECLE, S.A.B. DE C.V. Guillermo González Camarena No.800-4, Col. Zedec Santa Fe, C.P. 01210, Mexico City, Mexico “CUERVO” Securities Representing the Capital Stock of the Issuer Characteristics Market in which they are registered Single Series Shares of Common Stock Bolsa Mexicana de Valores, S.A.B. de C.V. The securities of the issuer referred to above are registered in the National Securities Registry (Registro Nacional de Valores). Registration in the National Securities Registry (Registro Nacional de Valores) does not certify the soundness of the securities or the solvency of the issuer, or the accuracy or veracity of the information contained in the prospectus, and it does not validate the actions that, as applicable, have been performed in contravention of applicable law. [Translation for informational purposes only] TABLE OF CONTENTS 1) Overview 4 A) GLOSSARY OF TERMS AND DEFINITIONS 4 B) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7 C) RISK FACTORS 22 D) OTHER SECURITIES 42 E) MATERIAL CHANGES TO THE RIGHTS OF SECURITIES REGISTERED IN THE NATIONAL SECURITIES REGISTRY 43 F) PUBLIC DOCUMENTS 44 2) THE COMPANY 45 A) HISTORY AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE COMPANY 45 B) BUSINESS DESCRIPTION 49 i) Main Activity 49 ii) Distribution Channels 61 iii) Patents, licenses, brands and other agreements 63 iv) Main customers 64 v) Applicable law -
Foreign Entry and the Mexican Banking System
These Are the Good Old Days: Foreign Entry and the Mexican Banking System Stephen Haber Aldo Musacchio Working Paper 13-062 January 10, 2013 Copyright © 2013 by Stephen Haber and Aldo Musacchio Working papers are in draft form. This working paper is distributed for purposes of comment and discussion only. It may not be reproduced without permission of the copyright holder. Copies of working papers are available from the author. These Are the Good Old Days: Foreign Entry and the Mexican Banking System Stephen Haber And Aldo Musacchio** ** Haber is Peter and Helen Bing Senior Fellow of the Hoover Institution and A.A. and Jeanne Welch Milligan Professor, Department of Political Science, Stanford University. He is also a Research Economist at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Musacchio is an Associate Professor of Business, Government, and the International Economy at the Harvard Business School, and a Research Fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research. 1 SUMMARY THESE ARE THE GOOD OLD DAYS: FOREIGN ENTRY AND THE MEXICAN BANKING SYSTEM In 1997, the Mexican government reversed long-standing policies and allowed foreign banks to purchase Mexico’s largest commercial banks and relaxed restrictions on the founding of new, foreign-owned banks. The result has been a dramatic shift in the ownership structure of Mexico’s banks. For instance, while in 1991 only one percent of bank assets in Mexico were foreign owned, today they control 74 percent of assets. In no other country in the world has the penetration of foreign banks been as rapid or as far-reaching as in Mexico. -
The Twin Crises: the Causes of Banking and Balance of Payments Problems
Munich Personal RePEc Archive The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems Reinhart, Carmen and Kaminsky, Graciela University of Maryland, College Park, Department of Economics June 1999 Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/14081/ MPRA Paper No. 14081, posted 15 Mar 2009 03:10 UTC The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems Graciela L. Kaminsky George Washington University Carmen M. Reinhart* University of Maryland First Draft: December 1995 This Version: November, 1998 A revised version was published in: American Economic Review Vol. 89 No. 3, June 1999, 473-500. In the wake of the Mexican and Asian currency turmoil, the subject of financial crises has come to the forefront of academic and policy discussions. This paper analyzes the links between banking and currency crises. We find that: problems in the banking sector typically precede a currency crisis--the currency crisis deepens the banking crisis, activating a vicious spiral; financial liberalization often precedes banking crises. The anatomy of these episodes suggests that crises occur as the economy enters a recession, following a prolonged boom in economic activity that was fueled by credit, capital inflows and accompanied by an overvalued currency. JEL F30, F41 * We thank two anonymous referees for very helpful suggestions. We also thank Guillermo Calvo, Rudiger Dornbusch, Peter Montiel, Vincent Reinhart, John Rogers, Andrew Rose and seminar participants at Banco de México, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve -
Cooperation Arrangement Between the Institute for the Protection of Bank Savings and the Single Resolution Board
COOPERATION ARRANGEMENT BETWEEN THE INSTITUTE FOR THE PROTECTION OF BANK SAVINGS AND THE SINGLE RESOLUTION BOARD In view of the growing globalisation of the world’s financial markets and the increase in cross- border operations and activities of financial institutions, the Institute for the Protection of Bank Savings of the United Mexican States (Instituto para la Protección al Ahorro Bancario - “IPAB”) and the Single Resolution Board (“SRB”) have reached this Cooperation Arrangement (“CA”) on the exchange of information and cooperation in connection with the Resolution planning and the implementation of such planning with respect to Entities with cross-border operations. The IPAB and the SRB express, through this CA, their willingness to cooperate with each other in the interest of fulfilling their respective statutory objectives; enhancing communication and cooperation; assisting each other in the planning and the conduct of an orderly Resolution of an Entity; and maintaining confidence and financial stability in Mexico and the European Banking Union. SECTION ONE: DEFINITIONS 1. For the purpose of this CA the following definitions apply: A. “Authority” means the IPAB or the SRB; (i) “Requested Authority” means the Authority to whom a request is made under this CA; and (ii) “Requesting Authority” means the Authority making a request under this CA. B. “Authorities” means the IPAB and the SRB; C. “Entity” or “Entities” means any credit institution, entity, body or group which is under the direct scope of responsibilities of either of the two Authorities, according to Articles 1 and 67, Section I, of the Banking Savings Protection Law (“Ley de Protección al Ahorro Bancario”) in conjunction with Article 2 of the SRM Regulation respectively; D. -
Is There a Threat of Twin Currency and Debt Crises In
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Bauer, Christian; Herz, Bernhard; Karb, Volker Working Paper Are twin currency and debt crises special? BGPE Discussion Paper, No. 19 Provided in Cooperation with: Friedrich-Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg (FAU), Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE) Suggested Citation: Bauer, Christian; Herz, Bernhard; Karb, Volker (2006) : Are twin currency and debt crises special?, BGPE Discussion Paper, No. 19, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE), Nürnberg This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/73377 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu BGPE Discussion Paper No. 19 Are twin currency and debt crisis special? Christian Bauer Bernhard Herz Volker Karb September 2006 ISSN 1863-5733 Editor: Prof. -
Executive Summary Mexico Has Undertaken Significant Reforms Over
Executive Summary Mexico has undertaken significant reforms over the past year in matters of financial regulation, taxation, anti-trust, energy, and telecommunications as part of the broad Pact for Mexico initiated by President Enrique Pena-Nieto. By the end of 2013, the government had passed a number of constitutional reforms intended to encourage foreign investment and more competition as well as increase the country’s tax base. Despite the government’s projections for economic growth exceeding 3 percent, Mexico closed 2013 at a more modest 1.1% and much lower than the 3.9% growth during the prior year. While economic growth in Mexico typically slows during the first year of a new administration, weakness in the U.S. economy – which consumes more than 80 percent of Mexico’s exports – also contributed to the slowdown. The most significant changes in Mexico’s investment outlook have been in the energy and telecommunications sectors. Prior to the constitutional reform, the state-controlled oil company, Pemex, had a monopoly on all hydrocarbon activity in the country. New legislation will allow the company to partner with private sector firms, and some of the country’s oil fields will be opened to outside exploration and development. In telecommunications, reforms are intended to improve competition and diminish concentration in the sector through the creation of a new, constitutionally autonomous regulator with the authority to order divestitures, enforce regulations, and apply targeted sanctions on companies it deems dominant in the market. During the past year, Mexico also enacted changes in the treatment of maquiladora businesses, increased the value-added tax (VAT) in the border region from 11 percent to 16 percent, and imposed a number of new taxes including on junk food, mining activity, and on high-earning individuals. -
Mexico Real Estate Outlook 2H18
Mexico Real Estate Outlook Second half 2018 Mexico Unit Contents 1. Summary 3 2. Market Conditions 4 2.a Building surprises with a boost to construction 4 2.b The mortgage market, due to the end of the contraction period. 13 3. Special topics 26 3.a Construction performance below its potential 26 3.b An approach to the prices faced by builders 31 3.c Population, lag and employment; their contribution to the state distribution of the mortgage market 35 4. Statistical annex 42 5. Special topics included in previous issues 46 Closing date: 10 October 2018 Mexico Real Estate Outlook – Second half 2018 2 1. Summary In our previous edition of Mexico Real Estate Outlook, we forecasted that construction GDP would fall in 2017 and not grow during 2018. The first part of our forecast was confirmed, but the rest of it was not, at least until the middle of this year, 2018. The GDP of construction closed 2017 with a fall of 1.1% in the annual rate. This is a result of the 10% decline in civil works and the slowdown in building that only improved 0.4%, both in annual terms. However, for the second quarter of 2018, the construction sector has an accumulated advance of 2%. Civil works are behaving as expected, even on negative ground, explained primarily by low investment in infrastructure works despite the announcement of the most ambitious infrastructure plan of the latest investments, which simply failed. Thus, only building remains as a driver of construction. The level of prices of construction materials has accelerated over the last few months, reaching almost 10%. -
Ben S Bernanke: Celebrating 20 Years of the Bank of Mexico's
Ben S Bernanke: Celebrating 20 years of the Bank of Mexico’s independence Remarks by Mr Ben S Bernanke, Chairman of the Board of Governors of the US Federal Reserve System, at the “Central bank independence – progress and challenges”, a conference sponsored by the Bank of Mexico, Mexico City, (via prerecorded video), 14 October 2013. * * * It is a pleasure to offer a few remarks at this conference marking the 20th anniversary of the Bank of Mexico’s independence. In August 1993, Mexico’s congress approved changes to the country’s constitution that granted policy autonomy to the Bank of Mexico and made price stability its primary mandate. Over the past two decades, these actions, along with a number of other constructive steps taken by Mexican policymakers, have paid substantial dividends in terms of improved economic performance. At the time that the Mexican congress changed the status and mandate of the central bank, the nation’s economy had been suffering periodic bouts of economic instability for many years. The 1970s through the mid-1990s in particular were marked by episodes of high inflation, boom-and-bust cycles, and financial crises. Indeed, shortly after the new Bank of Mexico law went into effect in April 1994, the Mexican economy entered the throes of the so- called peso crisis. However, the changes to the monetary policy framework, along with greater fiscal discipline and the adoption of a more flexible exchange rate, soon bore fruit. Notably, inflation fell to single-digit levels by the early 2000s. And in 2001 the Bank of Mexico formally adopted an inflation-targeting regime, which – outside of some temporary fluctuations – has succeeded in keeping inflation at around 4 percent. -
Kaminsky and Reinhart Revisited
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Lang, Michael Working Paper The early warnings of balance-of-payments problems: Kaminsky and Reinhart revisited Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series, No. 205 Provided in Cooperation with: Frankfurt School of Finance and Management Suggested Citation: Lang, Michael (2013) : The early warnings of balance-of-payments problems: Kaminsky and Reinhart revisited, Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series, No. 205, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, Frankfurt a. M. This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/85379 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu Frankfurt School – Working Paper Series No. 205 The Early Warnings of Balance-of- Payments problems: Kaminsky and Reinhart Revisited by Michael Lang August 2013 Sonnemannstr. -
The Mexican Peso Crisis of 1995 and Its Aftermath
6 The Mexican Peso Crisis of 1995 and Its Aftermath The financial rescue of Mexico in 1995 constitutes the most extensive use ever made of the ESF to supply credit to a foreign government. The Treasury made $20 billion available to Mexico, and Mexico’s maximum drawings peaked at $11.5 billion in medium-term loans, all of which were repaid by January 1997.1 Despite a drop in income for many social groups in Mexico, the economic results suggest that the rescue was dramatically successful. The episode nonetheless raised far-reaching and vociferously debated questions about the role of the ESF in financial rescues and produced temporary constraints on the Treasury’s discretion to use the account. Origins of the Crisis In response to fundamental policy reforms under the Carlos Salinas administration, and in anticipation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) entering into force at the beginning of 1994, large amounts of capital flowed into the Mexican economy during the early part of the decade. Mexico received more foreign investment during this period than any of the other emerging markets. While the Mexican govern- ment had made substantial progress in implementing reforms and had greatly reduced the rate of inflation, it had also made a number of mis- 1. In addition, the Federal Reserve advanced $1 billion to Mexico, bringing total maximum drawings from the United States to $12.5 billion. 61 Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com takes: the banking system was weak, and monetary policy had become overexpansionary, the current account deficit too high, external debt too short-term, and official exchange-rate exposure too large. -
Understanding the Korean and Thai Currency Crises
Understanding the Korean and Thai currency crises Craig Burnside, Martin Eichenbaum, and Sergio Rebelo Introduction and summary In the body of the article, we provide the empirical In late 1997, Southeast Asia was rocked by banking background for our analysis. We begin by motivating and currency crises. While dramatic in scope and in- empirically the importance of past banking crises as tensity, this episode was only the latest in a series a source of government liabilities. We then briefly re- of twin crises. Other prominent examples include view the salient features of the recent crises in Korea Argentina (1980), Chile (1981), Uruguay (1981), and Thailand. These can be summarized as follows. Finland (1991), Sweden (1991), and Mexico (1994). 1. Both currency crises were difficult to predict on In this article, we review and interpret the recent the basis of standard economic indicators, such Korean and Thai experiences, focusing on the pivotal as inflation rates, monetary growth rates, or past role of unfunded contingent government liabilities. government deficits. We concentrate on the Korean and Thai cases both 2. Neither banking crisis was difficult to anticipate, because their crises were severe and because neither certainly not if one used publicly available infor- country appeared to be a likely candidate for a currency mation about the market value of financial firms crisis, at least not from the perspective of standard in Korea and Thailand. economic models. In addition to being of independent interest, the 3. When the crises came, they came with a vengeance. lessons learned from the Korean and Thai episodes The Korean won and Thai baht rapidly depreciated should be useful in predicting and averting future twin by over 50 percent and 80 percent, respectively, crises.1 In a nutshell, these lessons are as follows.