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The Waves of the Technological Innovations of the Modern Age and the Present Crisis As the End of the Wave of the Informational Technological Revolution

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The Waves of the Technological Innovations of the Modern Age and the Present Crisis As the End of the Wave of the Informational Technological Revolution 32 DANIEL Šmihula The waves of the technological innovations of the modern age and the present crisis as the end of the wave of the informational technological revolution The article is about new views on the theory of “long waves” and specially from the point of view of technological progress importance of which is stressed. It developed a new conception of waves of technological innovations in a modern society (from 1600 AD). The last- 5th wave (based on a progress in informatics and telecomunications) is just coming to an end. Today eco- nomic crisis 2008() must be seen also as the crisis of the end of the cycle of innovations. It could be overcome by a new technological revolution (post-informational technological revolution) which could start about 2015. Key words: Crisis, innovation, invention, Kondratieffs cycles, long waves, post-informatio- nal technological revolution, technological progress, waves of technological innovation. 1. Introduction The term “information revolution”1, which achieved widespread currency in the period 1960– 80, reflected the penetration of computers and information technology into the economy and everyday life. This revolution was sometime supposed to represent a change in the structure of society as momentous as the Neolithic revolution 9 000 years ago, or the industrial revolution at the start of the nineteenth century.2 Since 1980 the society that developed as a result of this change has been known as the post- industrial society, initially as a result of the influence of the American professor of Sociology Daniel Bell (born 1919)3. Later, under the influence of Heidi and Alvin Toffler, the terms third wave society4, super-industrial society and information society came into use. According to their concept, which has become a commonplace, humanity has passed through four societies or sta- ges of development5: 1 FREEMAN, C.: Die Computerrevolution in den langen Zyklen der ökonomischen Entwicklung, München, Carl Friedrich von Siemens Stiftung, 1985, p. 31 2 See: TOFFLER, A.: The Third Wave, New York, Bantam Books, 1980, pp. 5-11 3 Daniel Bell, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Bell 4 TOFFLER, A.: The Third Wave, New York, Bantam Books, 1980, pp. 5-11 5 TOFFLER, A.: Šok z budoucnosti (Future Shock), Praha, Práce, 1992, pp.13-15 and TOFFLER, A.: The Third Wave, New York, Bantam Books, 1980, pp. 13-16 STUDIA POLITICA SLOVACA The waves of the technological innovations of the modern age and the present crisis... 33 1. hunter-gatherer, 2. agrarian (first wave society), 3. industrial (second wave society) 4. informational (third wave society) In each case the catalyst for change was a new form of technology: agriculture, mechanical production and information-communication technologies. There are legitimate grounds for criticizing such a model: The division of history into such stages is somewhat oversimplified. It is clear that the so-cal- led industrial society continued to be dependent on agriculture, just as the informational society was dependent on industry and in fact the birth of every new sector depends on and is accompa- nied by progress in other sectors: the industrial revolution would not have been possible without a significant increase in the productivity of agriculture, which freed the labour force, and the in- formation revolution includes progress in industry (new production technologies without which the mass production of computers would be impossible, while at the same time information tech- nology permits entirely new procedures in production, breeding and so on). At any given time the model over-generalizes previous experience while making excessive extrapolations from current developments. And- what is more- since 18th century every generation has believed that in its own present time it was experiencing “the eve of the new age”- and more just, “better” and democratic, of course6. We simply have a natural tendency to exaggerate an importance of changes of our own era. 7 Many expectations laid in the “Third wave” simply failed.8 It would be more correct to say that since the seventeenth- eighteenth centuries we9 have lived in a modern society which is characterized by a non-stop stream of technological innovations (and economic growth10) and that industrial and information society are both just stages in the development of modern society. Technological progress11 and innovations is integral and con- stant part of such modern society and its economy. However the first “modern” or “western” countries were Netherlands12 and England (in 17th and 18th centuries) and the area of modernity had to spread step by step: Western Europe and 6 For example, Tofflers illusions on decline of power of elites in the Third wave society. See: Toffler, Alvin, The Third Wave, New York, Bantam Books, 1980, pp. 67-68 7 ARON, R.: Opium intelektuálů, Praha, Mladá fronta, 2001, p. 208 8 See for example: TOFFLER, A.: The Third Wave, New York, Bantam Books, 1980, pp. 100-361 9 At least Europeans, because this modernization started in Europe – from reason which are out of scope of this article. See: LANDES, D. S.: Bohatství a bída národů (The Wealth and Poverty of Nations), Praha, BB/art s.r.o., 2004, p. 493, Jourdin, Michel Mollat du, Evropa a moře (L´ Europe et la mer), Bratislava, Archa, 1994, pp. 128-164, 274-285 and KENNEDY, P.: Vzestup a pád velmocí (The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers), Praha, Nakladatelství Lidové noviny, 1996, pp. 21-52 10 FREEMAN, C. L.: As Time Goes By, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2001, pp.26-27 11 For definition of technological progress see: Dosi, Giovanni, Orsenigo, Luigi, „Coordination and transformation: an overview of structures, behaviours and change in evolutionary environmnets“, in Dosi, Giovanni, Freeman, Christopher, NELSON, R.: Silverberg, Gerald, Soete, Luc (editors), Technical Change and Economic Theory, London, Pinter Pub- lishers, 1988, pp. 15-16 12 KENNEDY, P.: Vzestup a pád velmocí (The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers), Praha, Nakladatelství Lidové noviny, 1996, p. 94 STUDIA POLITICA SLOVACA 34 Štúdie a analýzy Northern America in 1800-1850, Scandinavia and Germany13 in 1850-1900, Japan14, Latin Ame- rica15, South, Central and Eastern Europe in 1900-2000 (This process was in Central and Eastern Europe delayed by the communist experiment.)16 and several former Third world countries in 1980- 2005 (Hong- cong, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea, Turkey, parts of China, and India).17 All following description of economic and technical developments concerns parts of the world which were “in” the modern society in a given time. A new technology or innovation (in the broadest meaning)18 makes possible to exploit much more natural resources in more effective way. It is fully equivalent to “…a gigantic expansion of resource supplies”.19 A rapid and long-term economic growth is therefore usually a result of new technological in- novations in industry and economy.20 It is almost generally accepted, that technology (in proper social conditions) is the critical factor in the long term economic development of modern indus- trial societies.21 And in the economy without additional sources from “outside” (what our planet today is- all parts of the planet are discovered and distributed) a progress of technologies (in the broadest meaning) has stayed as the only significant engine of long-term economic growth.22 All manipulations with low taxation, inflation, low interest rates etc. (instruments of the “business cycle”) can really speed up an economic growth – but without innovations in technology they can not help to shift the maximal potential limit of production on conditions of the given natural sources and existing technologies23 -this limit will be reached only more quickly. (Of course, presented financial “tricks” almost always stimulate even a demand for new technologies and their development- especially of the economy is approaching to the described maximal potential limit of production.) In this context a more accurate model would be the so-called Kondratieffs long cycles24. These cycles in the modern post-agrarian economy were reinforced in the work of the Russian econo- 13 LANDES, D. S.: Bohatství a bída národů (The Wealth and Poverty of Nations), Praha, BB/art s.r.o., 2004, pp. 292-305 14 Tamže, 2004, pp. 371 15 Tamže, pp.322 16 BEREND, I. T.: An Economic History of Twentieth-Century Europe, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2006, pp. 172-189 17 KENNEDY, P.: Svět v 21. století (Preparing for the Twenty-First Century), Praha, Nakladatelství Lidové noviny, 1996, 35 18 As a new technical device, organizational method, financial instrument etc. which enable higher efficiency and better exploiting of sources. See: Freeman, Christopher, Perez, Carlota, „Structural crisis of adjustment, business cycles and in- vetment behaviour.“ in Dosi, Giovanni, Freeman, Christopher, Nelson, Richard, Silverberg, Gerald, Soete, Luc (editors), Technical Change and Economic Theory, London, Pinter Publishers, 1988, pp. 45-49 19 ROSeNbeRG, N.: „The Impact of Technological Innovation: A Historical View“ in Landau, Ralph, Rosenberg, Nathan (editors), The Positive Sum Strategy, Washington, National Academy Press, 1986, p. 22 20 FREEMAN, C.: Die Computerrevolution in den langen Zyklen der ökonomischen Entwicklung, München, Carl Friedrich von Siemens Stiftung, 1985, pp.18-20 and Kondratieff, Nikolai, The Long Wave Cycle, New York, Richardson&Snyder, 1984, p. 66 21 LANDAU, R., ROSeNbeRG, N. (editors): The Positive Sum Strategy, Washington, National Academy Press, 1986, p.vi and 7-10 22 BOSKIN, J. M.: „Macroeconomics, Technology, and economic Growth: An Intraduction to Some Important Issues“ in Landau, Ralph, Rosenberg, Nathan (editors), The Positive Sum Strategy, Washington, National Academy Press, 1986, p. 36 23 REEDER, C. b.: „The effect of Recent Macroeconomic Policies on Innovation and Productivity“ in Landau, Ralph, ROSeNbeRG, N. (editors): The Positive Sum Strategy, Washington, National Academy Press, 1986, pp. 89-91 24 KONDRatiEFF, N.: The Long Wave Cycle, New York, Richardson&Snyder, 1984, pp. 25-29 STUDIA POLITICA SLOVACA The waves of the technological innovations of the modern age and the present crisis..
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