1
Annex RAP PUBLICATION: 2001/14
APDC/01/REP
REPORT OF THE
FAO ASIA-PACIFIC CONFERENCE ON EARLY WARNING, PREVENTION, PREPAREDNESS AND MANAGEMENT OF DISASTERS IN FOOD AND AGRICULTURE
Chiangmai, Thailand, 12 to 15 June 2001
FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS REGIONAL OFFICE FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Opinions expressed in this publication are those of the author alone and do not imply any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO.
NOTICE OF COPYRIGHT
The copyright in this publication is vested in the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. This publication may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, by any method or process, without written permission from the copyright holder. Applications for such permission with a statement of the purpose and extent of the reproduction desired should be made through and addressed to the Senior Food Systems Economist, FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, Maliwan Mansion, Phra Athit Road, Bangkok 10200, Thailand.
FAO 2001
ii iii CONTENTS
Page
I. ORGANIZATIONAL MATTERS ...... 1
II. STRENGTHENING EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS FOR FOOD AND AGRICULTURE IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC ...... 1
III. AGRO-METEOROLOGICAL MODELS AND REMOTE SENSING FOR CROP MONITORING AND FORECASTING IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC ...... 3
IV. RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT FOR FLOOD AND DROUGHT PREVENTION AND MITIGATION IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC ...... 5
V. FOREST FIRE PREVENTION AND PREPAREDNESS IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC ...... 6
VI. PASTORAL RISK MANAGEMENT FOR DISASTER PREVENTION AND PREPAREDNESS IN CENTRAL ASIA WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO THE CASE OF MONGOLIA ...... 8
VII. REDUCING AGRICULTURAL VULNERABILITY TO STORMS WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO FARMING SYSTEMS AND METHODS ...... 10
VIII. LONG-RANGE CLIMATE FORECASTS FOR AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC...... 11
IX. ASIA FIVIMS FOR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS ...... 13
X. DEVELOPING FARMING SYSTEMS AND BEST PRACTICES FOR DROUGHT-PRONE AREAS ...... 15
XI. DEVELOPING FARMING SYSTEMS AND BEST PRACTICES FOR FLOOD-PRONE AREAS ...... 17
XII. DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR ANIMAL HEALTH ...... 19
XIII. MANAGING THE CONTINUUM OF RELIEF, REHABILITATION, RECONSTRUCTION AND RECOVERY ACTIVITIES FOLLOWING DISASTERS IN FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ...... 20
v CONTENTS (continued)
Page
XIV. LEVERAGING SUPPORT FOR DISASTER MANAGEMENT WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO FOOD AND NUTRITION ASSISTANCE AND WOMEN...... 22
XV. SPECIAL MINISTERIAL BRIEFINGS ON DISASTER EARLY WARNING, PREVENTION, PREPAREDNESS AND MANAGEMENT 26
Annex I APDC/01/Info. 3 Ð List of Delegates ...... 27
Annex II Opening Statement of the Representative of the Minister of Agriculture and Cooperatives, Thailand ...... 41
Annex III Keynote Speech by the Assistant Director-General and FAO Regional Representative for Asia and the Pacific ...... 45
Annex IV APDC/01/1 Ð Agenda...... 51
Annex V APDC/01/Info. 2 Ð List of Documents ...... 53
Annex VI APDC/01/2 Ð Strengthening Early Warning Systems for Food and Agriculture in Asia and the Pacific ...... 55
Annex VII APDC/01/3 Ð Agro-Meteorological Models and Remote Sensing for Crop Monitoring and Forecasting in Asia and the Pacific 75
Annex VIII APDC/01/4 Ð River Basin Management for Flood and Drought Prevention and Mitigation in Asia and the Pacific...... 93
Annex IX APDC/01/5 Ð Forest Fire Prevention and Preparedness in Asia and the Pacific...... 155
Annex X APDC/01/6 Ð Pastoral Risk Management for Disaster Prevention and Preparedness in Central Asia with Special Reference to the Case of Mongolia ...... 181
Annex XI APDC/01/7 Ð Reducing Agricultural Vulnerability to Storms, with Special Reference to Farming Systems and Methods ...... 207
vi CONTENTS (continued)
Page
Annex XII APDC/01/8 Ð Long-Range Climate Forecasts for Agriculture and Food Security Planning and Management in Asia and the Pacific ...... 241
Annex XIII APDC/01/9 Ð Asia FIVIMS for Disaster Preparedness ...... 267
Annex XIV APDC/01/10 Ð Developing Farming Systems and Best Practices for Drought-Prone Areas ...... 289
Annex XV APDC/01/11 Ð Developing Farming Systems and Best Practices for Flood-Prone Areas ...... 321
Annex XVI APDC/01/12 Ð Disaster Risk Management Strategies for Animal Health...... 339
Annex XVII APDC/01/13 Ð Managing the Continuum of Relief, Rehabilitation, Reconstruction and Recovery Activities Following Disasters in Food and Agriculture ...... 353
Annex XVIII APDC/01/14/A Ð Leveraging Support for Disaster Management with Special Reference to Food and Nutrition Assistance...... 371
Annex XIX APDC/01/14/B Ð Leveraging Support for Disaster Management with Special Reference to Women...... 381
Annex XX APDC/01/Info. 4 Ð Disasters in Asia and the Pacific: An Overview ...... 405
vii I. ORGANIZATIONAL MATTERS
1. The Asia-Pacific Conference on Early Warning, Prevention, Preparedness and Management of Disasters in Food and Agriculture was convened by FAO from 12 to 15 June, 2001 at the Amari Rincome Hotel in Chiangmai, Thailand. Participants from eighteen member countries of FAO, and representatives form six international organizations and NGOs attended the Conference. The list of delegates is attached as Annex I.
2. Mr. Tongchai Petcharatana, Representative of the Minister of Agriculture and Cooperatives, Thailand, delivered the opening address. The Assistant Director-General and FAO Regional Representative for Asia and the Pacific presented the keynote statement. The opening address and keynote statement are attached as Annexes II and III respectively.
3. The Conference elected three participants with ministerial rank, namely, H.E. Mr. It Nody, Under-Secretary of State, Ministry of Agriculture, Cambodia; H.E. Mr. Sompal, Member of Planning Commission, India; and H.E. Mr. D.M. Jayaratne, Minister of Agriculture, Sri Lanka as co-chairpersons. The Conference also elected Mr. Samuel M. Contreras, Chief, Water Resources Management Division, Bureau of Soils and Water Management, Philippines as rapporteur.
4. The Conference adopted its agenda and timetable as attached in Annex IV. The list of documents is attached as Annex V.
II. STRENGTHENING EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS FOR FOOD AND AGRICULTURE IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC
5. The Conference considered agenda item 3 on Strengthening Early Warning Systems (EWS) for Food and Agriculture in Asia and the Pacific, based on Secretariat document APDC/01/2 (attached as Annex VI).
6. It discussed the role of EWS in preventing and mitigating disaster-induced food insecurity; basic elements of an effective EWS; and the guidance gleaned from the experiences of FAO’s Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS).
7. The Conference noted that the nature of food and agricultural emergencies has changed over the past 20 years. Man-made disasters such as war, civil strife, economic crisis, and the plunder of natural resources have become as worrisome as natural hazards that cause food insecurity. This shift from primarily supply-driven to both supply and demand-driven crises requires that EWS also change its structural and functional organization to remain effective.
1 8. It further observed that fortunately, new technologies have raised the state of the art significantly. In this regard, GIEWS methodologies, tools and technologies such as the country cereal balance sheet, the rapid assessment mission, the geographic information system, satellite imagery and the electronic news service that are integrated in the GIEWS Workstation were discussed. With the use of this system that is linked to a unique reference database, analysts can assess rainfall and vegetation, supply and utilization and other indicators to provide warnings of impending disasters. A suggestion was made that methodologies for assessing food availability and accessibility at the local level should be improved.
9. The Conference learnt that FAO’s staple foods supply utilization accounts are updated on a continuous basis. Such accounts provide forecasts of up to one year on stocks, production, net trade and use.
10. An FAO GIEWS expert gave a demonstration on the Workstation’s capabilities and products. He also distributed a CD Rom of Work Station data on 20 countries. It was learnt that, currently, an interactive website known as GeoWeb giving users access to GIEWS data bases and tools is being developed. The Conference expressed appreciation for this far-reaching FAO contribution to National Early Warning Systems (NEWS).
11. The Conference commended FAO on its work in crop and food supply assessment in many Asian countries. Evaluation and warning of impending food shortages in disaster-prone Asian countries would assist in mobilizing much-needed international food aid. In this context, it was noted that in seriously affected countries, such as DPR Korea, FAO usually undertakes two missions a year to update its assessments on a continuous basis.
12. The Conference reiterated the need for GIEWS’ four basic ingredients for a strong EWS, namely, collaboration and cooperation, institutional capacity building, state-of-the-art technology and effective information-response linkage. These criteria would lay the foundation for neutral and objective assessment, partnership with multi-lateral and bilateral donors, close contact with major players and advocacy through the media.
13. Given the rising frequency and impact of food and agricultural disasters from natural hazards and man-made calamities, the Conference felt that it is timely for countries to review their NEWS with a view to making faster and more substantial improvements. FAO’s work in establishing/strengthening NEWS in several South Asian countries was noted. The Conference called upon donors to support projects aimed at establishing and strengthening NEWS.
14. It further emphasized the growing effect of macro-economic factors such as interest and exchange rates, labour wages, general price levels, trade developments and other factors that impinge on food security. The poverty and hunger associated with the recent Asian financial crisis, civil unrest, border conflicts and structural
2 adjustments and economic transitions are good examples. The Conference recommended that NEWS extend their coverage to give due attention to macro-economic factors and forces.
15. The Conference pointed out that natural hazards and economic crises are often regional in extent. Collective action in providing early warning would improve cost-effectiveness. It recommended that a Regional Technical Cooperation Network on EWS be set up to develop a regional strategy for EWS, a system for information exchange and a mechanism for joint capacity building.
16. It observed however that NEWS must first be effective in order for a regional network on EWS to work.
III. AGRO-METEOROLOGICAL MODELS AND REMOTE SENSING FOR CROP MONITORING AND FORECASTING IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC
17. The Conference discussed agenda item 4 on Agro-meteorological Models and Remote Sensing for Crop Monitoring and Forecasting in Asia and the Pacific, based on Secretariat document APDC/01/3 (attached as Annex VII). It learnt that the year-to-year variability in crop yields is attributed to several factors, namely, trend; direct and indirect weather effects including pests, diseases and weeds; and on-farm management. The trend incorporates the results of technology, improved varieties, mechanisation, use of inputs, etc.
18. Depending on the level of aggregation of yield statistics and the level of development of the agricultural sector, the trend can account for a larger part of yield and production variability. It is frequently above 90 per cent, with only a minor part of the variability being left to direct and indirect weather effects. In many developing countries on the other hand, particularly in semi-arid areas, the trend’s lowest level of aggregation, i.e., the technology component, is much less marked, and the weather effect on yield is still predominant. Susceptibility to the vagaries of weather may even increase as marginal and subsistence farmers pass through a transition phase towards more market-oriented farming.
19. The Conference also observed that at national and global levels, the total crop loss due to the micro-variability of weather (chronic losses) greatly exceeds loss arising from extreme and violent events. Although the latter may lead to intense human suffering, and sometimes complete crop loss, they usually occur within a limited area.
20. Inadequate and unstable food supplies caused by unfavourable weather call for improved monitoring and forecasting of crop conditions. The Conference noted that agro-meteorological modelling technology, methods and tools have developed rapidly in recent years, driven by advances in communications, computers and modern sources of data (e.g., satellite imagery and weather radar). These developments have given
3 rise to major tools for crop yield-weather simulation, namely, process-oriented models, GIS techniques, geostatistics and random weather generators (RWG).
21. The Conference studied process-oriented models such as CERES, WOFOST, EPIC, etc. that were developed in a research context for very small areas, for instance, on a single field. In the context of FAO’s crop yield forecasting philosophy, their usefulness lies primarily in providing some value-added variables in classical yield functions (e.g. regression models) in combination with GIS techniques, geostatistics and RWG.
22. The use of vegetation indices as a variable in quantitative crop yield forecasting has been disappointing. However, satellite-derived vegetation indices and cloud information have proven their potential as auxiliary variables for stratification, zoning and area averaging of point data. There are also promising developments in satellite inputs such as radar to estimate moisture and direct satellite observations on crop stage, soil, surface temperature, etc. as inputs to simulation models.
23. The Conference concluded that available leading crop simulation models are very complex. They require considerable simplification for application in the context of crop monitoring and forecasting systems for food security. The Conference recommended that researchers focus on:
a) simple models using weather and crop variables that are actually available operationally; b) models which can be used at spatial scales required by food monitoring and forecasting systems, i.e., essential administrative units of various levels, starting from the lowest; c) models and methods specifically geared towards the rapid assessment of extreme weather on agriculture, as well as crop forecasting tools for disaster conditions; d) models which include the effects of pathogens and weeds on crops; and e) models which are non-parametric and ruled-based.
24. The Conference highlighted the need to improve the availability of standard and modern real-time data in crop monitoring and forecasting systems, including the estimation of cropped areas as well as those affected by disasters. It concurred that a modular design should be adopted for crop monitoring and forecasting systems, and there should be compatibility of tools. It recommended that as a first step, concerned workers harmonise data files and work towards achieving a universal self-documented format.
25. The Conference called for a wide and effective dissemination of crop monitoring and forecasting methodologies. It further urged regional collaboration to identify and exchange new agro-meteorological and remote sensing tools.
4 IV. RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT FOR FLOOD AND DROUGHT PREVENTION AND MITIGATION IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC
26. The Conference discussed agenda item 5 on River Basin Management for Flood and Drought Prevention and Mitigation in Asia and the Pacific, based on Secretariat document APDC/01/4 (attached as Annex VIII). It focused on the importance of river basin management strategies for flood and drought prevention and mitigation, and discussed the nature of floods and droughts in agriculture, current strategies, experiences, trends in approaches, techniques and practices, and lessons learnt.
27. The Conference agreed that it is important to establish or strengthen integrated water management institutions at the river basin level. This is to enable an integrated approach to the management of flood and drought problems within the river basin.
28. The Conference also agreed that local communities should be empowered to participate in the planning, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of river basin management. It recommended that governments pursue the devolution of natural resource management down to the community level.
29. The Conference observed that the management of hydrological risks is a complex exercise and its complexity is increasing. It is determined by climate variability, floods and low flows, day-to-day increment of flows, abstractions and releases and pollution loads. The efficient management of such intricacies requires the modernization of water institutions and distribution systems that provides farmers with more flexibility in responding to floods and droughts. In this regard, the Conference recommended that governments give priority to modernizing the following areas:
a) water rights and allocation rules to agriculture under normal and drought circumstances; b) devolution and transfer of irrigation systems to users; c) development of technologically advanced irrigation systems; d) investment in irrigation systems; e) productive farming systems in terms of water-use; and f) integrated mapping of hazards with land use.
30. The Conference agreed that in order to achieve modernization, it is necessary for developing countries to review and improve the legal, institutional and policy framework governing water resources and their use.
31. In this context, the Conference raised the issue of water pricing. It agreed that raising the price of water in itself is not a solution. Along with appropriate pricing, improved cropping patterns and efficient water use are necessary. In other words, there should be comprehensive demand management of water resources.
5 32. In connection with the modernization thrust, the Conference underscored the persistent issue of water sharing among riparian countries. It called upon regional economic cooperation networks such as the Mekong Committee, SAARC and others to create conditions for the resolution of this controversial issue.
33. The Conference noted that developing integrated systems would take time. Developing countries may adopt short and medium term strategies to address urgent emerging problems such as over-exploitation of ground water in South and Southeast Asia.
34. The Conference emphasized that floods and droughts should be considered together in river basin management strategies. In other words, there should be an integrated package of preventive and mitigation measures for both floods and droughts at the river basin level.
35. The importance of scale was also raised. The Conference agreed that management strategies that worked for small areas might not be appropriate for large areas.
36. The Conference raised the problem of inadequate data for management, forecasting and modeling. It called upon governments to give high priority to developing, strengthening and sustaining hydrological, hydro-meteorological, agro-meteorological and ground water monitoring services. It further suggested that the dissemination of information be improved.
37. With regard to research and development (R&D), the Conference recommended that the following areas be earmarked for intensive work:
a) water management under monsoon conditions aimed at raising the productivity of water, including flood water; b) operational catchment hydrology and land-water linkage modeling; c) adaptive strategies pursued by individuals and communities; d) rural ground water and urban water demand management; e) impact of water management strategies on natural resources; and f) watershed management.
V. FOREST FIRE PREVENTION AND PREPAREDNESS IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC
38. The Conference deliberated on agenda item 6 on Forest Fire Prevention and Preparedness in Asia and the Pacific, based on the background information provided by Secretariat document APDC/01/5 (attached as Annex IX).
39. It highlighted the susceptibility of large areas of savannah and mixed forest grasslands in North and Central Asia, and agricultural land and forests in the region’s
6 humid tropics to fires. Although not all fires end up as disasters, they can cause significant losses in agricultural production, assets and employment. However, there is limited information on the incidence, extent and damage caused in the food and agricultural sector. The Conference recommended that governments assess the magnitude of the fire problem comprehensively, taking into consideration direct and indirect losses, the short and long-term impact, and its seasonal and spatial distribution.
40. The Conference, in examining ways and means of protecting farmland, forests and livelihoods from fires, recognized the diversity of their causes and effects. Each disaster is socio-economically and ecologically unique. All of them must be studied for lessons to be learnt. It stressed the importance of the participatory approach that involves all stakeholders, i.e., the government, NGO, private enterprise and vulnerable communities in planning and implementing action plans.
41. A prerequisite for the successful protection of farming systems, natural resources and livelihoods, is a comprehensive, consistent and sound body of laws, and rules and regulations. Such a legal package must be based on the people’s capacities and needs. It generally does not exist in developing countries. The Conference recommended that governments review and reinforce the laws, rules and regulations governing the prevention and fighting of fires in the agricultural and forestry sector.
42. This major thrust could be followed by a stock taking of current policies, programmes and practices with a view to their improvement. The Conference recommended that governments institute a comprehensive policy package and set up an agenda for technology transfer within the framework of TCDC.
43. With regard to the basic elements of a national strategy and action plan, the Conference stressed the following:
a) institute forest, grassland and agricultural fires research, training and extension; b) include the fire factor in land-use legislation, planning and implementation; c) build awareness and understanding of the causes and effects of forest and agricultural fires among all stakeholders; d) introduce community-based management in fire prevention, early warning, preparedness, mitigation, relief and assistance for sustainable recovery; and e) put in place a fire monitoring and reporting system.
44. The Conference noted the possible linkage of drought with forest and agricultural fires. It learnt that in South East Asia, plantation fires often occur during long periods of drought. The Conference suggested that attention be paid to this linkage for better risk management.
7 45. It observed that not all fires are bad. There are also good fires. These include controlled fires for new planting and replanting of various crops. In this context, the issue of slash and burn agriculture was raised. The Conference agreed that the solution lies in providing improved and/or alternative livelihood systems to the concerned communities. This strategy includes among other measures, the following provisions:
a) access by tribal communities to and use of land without forest cover; b) opportunities to collect, process and sell minor forest products including herbs and medicinal plants; c) alternative fuels; d) new employment opportunities; and e) other environmentally friendly rights.
46. The Conference recognized that forest fires could conserve bio-diversity. It called for more research in this area.
VI. PASTORAL RISK MANAGEMENT FOR DISASTER PREVENTION AND PREPAREDNESS IN CENTRAL ASIA WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO THE CASE OF MONGOLIA
47. The Conference considered agenda item 7 on Pastoral Risk Management for Disaster Prevention and Preparedness in Central Asia with Special reference to the case of Mongolia, based on Secretariat document APDC/01/6 (attached as Annex X). It covered concepts and institutional approaches to pastoral risk management. Discussions were supported by findings from FAO’s fieldwork in Mongolia, China and Kyrgyzstan since 1995.
48. The Conference learnt that most Central Asian countries paid more attention to post-disaster relief than to risk reduction and the prevention of disasters. It agreed that the balance should shift in favour of preparedness and mitigation.
49. The Conference also learnt that governments have tended to decrease support for managing risks of herders who are experiencing an on-going economic transition. It agreed that the government’s role in establishing and enforcing legal and policy regimes, as well as technical and funding support for improving preparedness should be strengthened.
50. The Conference noted that research in Central Asia underscored the overwhelming importance of institutional capacity and organization. Collaboration and coordination within and between all levels of administration should be strengthened. Furthermore, cooperation among government, NGOs and CSOs should be encouraged. Practical modalities for sharing responsibilities and benefits, the participatory approach and capacity building are critical in pastoral risk management. The Conference urged
8 governments to be cognizant of the need for appropriate institutions and effective organizations.
51. The Conference realized that the on-going economic transition has placed increasing responsibility for preparedness on individual households. At the same time, customary herder practices for mutual assistance in disasters are weakening. The Conference recommended that governments support traditional institutions, arrangements and mechanisms that promote collective self-reliance in disasters.
52. In discussing risks, the Conference underscored the importance of paying due attention to the carrying capacity of the land. The numbers of animals must be monitored, planned and controlled to avoid overgrazing. In this regard, the Conference identified poverty, decreasing mobility of pastoralists and the declining quantity and quality of pastures as major risk increasing factors. These should be taken into account in risk management strategies.
53. In the area of risk management planning, the Conference noted that pastoral risk management could be conceptualized in three phases, namely, risk preparedness, responding to disasters and recovering from disasters.
54. To improve pastoral risk preparedness, the Conference advocated:
a) strengthening herder organizations; b) establishing appropriate savings, credit and insurance services; c) adopting herd management techniques that avoid risk; d) providing incentive systems to reduce overgrazing; e) encouraging participatory technology development; f) improving coordination at all administrative levels; g) instituting long term weather forecasting; h) developing markets; i) creating grazing reserves; j) setting up strategic fodder reserves; k) maintaining herd mobility; l) improving herders’ risk planning capacities; and m) building physical infrastructure.
55. The Conference also stressed the importance of annual planning for risk preparedness. In this regard, it called for better winter preparation by herders, annual storage of fodder, pasture allocation by season and early warning.
56. In the discussion on responding to disasters in pastoral areas, the Conference agreed on the need for more and better coordination of emergency management; herder mobility; access to emergency fodder and grazing reserves; labour inputs; and emergency food distribution.
9 57. On recovering from disasters in pastoral areas, the Conference urged governments to pay special attention to developing credit facilities for animal re-stocking and alternative livelihood opportunities for impoverished herders; and short-term consumption assistance programmes.
58. In connection with sustainable recovery, the Conference urged more R&D in:
a) conversion of marginal and unproductive crop land back into pasture land; and b) development of mixed farming systems for pastoral communities in productive areas.
59. The Conference noted that, so far, “risks” have been used with different meanings in various papers and contexts. It suggested that this term be clearly defined.
VII. REDUCING AGRICULTURAL VULNERABILITY TO STORMS WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO FARMING SYSTEMS AND METHODS
60. The Conference exchanged views on agenda item 8 on Reducing Agricultural Vulnerability to Storms with Special Reference to Farming Systems and Methods, based on Secretariat document APDC/01/7 (attached as Annex XI). The exchange covered storm incidence and impact, concepts pertaining to agricultural vulnerability, and strategy for reducing agricultural vulnerability to storms.
61. The Conference observed that storm-related disasters have increased in frequency and intensity. The last 10 years experienced a 300 per cent rise in the number of persons affected by storms and floods. Windstorm and flood-related disasters accounted for 60 per cent of total economic loss caused by natural disasters worldwide in 2000. This loss seriously affected the agricultural, forestry and fisheries sectors. More effective agriculture/fisheries-specific preparedness and mitigation measures for storms are urgently needed.
62. The Conference examined the broad spectrum of FAO’s experiences in disaster work and agreed that the participatory approach that reaches the local community is essential for success. In other words, national action plans must be based on community plans for awareness and capacity building and mitigation measures.
63. In endeavoring to reduce agricultural vulnerability to storms, the Conference stressed the importance of adopting a farming and livelihood systems approach. Only with such a systems approach can livelihood vulnerability analysis comprehensively cover farm and non-farm resources, and all sources of income and gender aspects.
64. As an entry point, the Conference suggested that farming systems vulnerability maps be developed by overlaying farming systems maps with hazard risk maps. This would show which farming systems were vulnerable to what disasters and where.
10 65. With regard to mitigation strategies, the Conference emphasized that actions need to be taken at different levels, i.e., at the global, regional, national, sub-national, farm, farm household and crop/livestock level. These actions should be consistent and clearly specified for every level. For example, improved land preparation methods at the crop enterprise level should be supported by R&D at the farming systems level, land-use planning at the sub-national level, and so on.
66. The Conference observed that fiscal and monetary incentives could change farming systems and alter the patterns of vulnerability. Macro-economic policies must enhance resilience to storms and storm-related disasters. It recommended that concerned countries should begin by making sure the policies encourage investment in storm resistant infrastructure, production patterns and other activities and, simultaneously discourage unsuitable agriculture, production intensification and logging in storm-swept areas.
67. In this regard, the Conference highlighted the importance of land-use planning in countries susceptible to storms. It urged capacity building, better coordination and collaboration among concerned institutions and participatory action on the ground in this task.
68. The Conference, in addressing responses to the agricultural sector, pointed out that the information required for farming systems-based mitigation plans is highly complex and location-specific. Therefore, traditional knowledge was highlighted as a key source for developing agricultural vulnerability reduction strategies.
69. The Conference emphasized that there is a need for a comprehensive and in-depth study of local farming systems and methods that increase resilience to storm disasters. It also called for an increase in the R&D of appropriate plant varieties and animal species, cropping patterns and mixes, agronomic practices and conservation measures. Decision-making processes at farm and household levels in the face of disaster should also be examined.
VIII. LONG-RANGE CLIMATE FORECASTS FOR AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC
70. The Conference conferred on agenda item 9 on Long-range Climate Forecasts for Agriculture and Food Security Planning and Management in Asia and the Pacific, based on the background information provided by Secretariat documents APDC/01/8 and APDC/01/Info. 4 (attached as Annexes XII and XX) prepared by the Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre. It discussed the evolution of long-term forecasts; recent advances in El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions; and opportunities and constraints for using ENSO index-based forecasts for the management of agriculture and food security.
11 71. The Conference noted that climate associated uncertainties inherent in agricultural systems underline the need for advance information on climate behaviour to facilitate risk management. Recent advances in climate prediction show much promise. However, the 1997-98 El Niño experiences revealed that a large gap exists between the potential value of forecast information and the actual utilization of such information for managing agricultural systems. Applications of climate predictions have so far been of limited benefit to societies. For example, an observation was made that long-term climate forecasts have been of limited use in India due to the large number of microclimate zones. There is a need to take concerted action to benefit from the progress made in climate prediction.
72. The Conference recognized that climate forecasts have some limitations. Skillful forecasts are available only for some seasons and regions. For example, while in some areas there are clear relationships between ENSO indices and local climate variables, other areas do not exhibit linear relationships. It would take some time to obtain climate forecasts with greater geographic resolution that cover all factors governing climate variability. It is therefore necessary to delimit specific climate zones highly sensitive to ENSO indices; and also where specific relationships exist between ENSO indices and local climatic variability. The Conference called for delimitation of climate sensitive zones, sectors and seasons to facilitate the application of forecast information at the local level.
73. In this regard, the Conference noted that long-term climate forecasting is difficult in middle latitudes. It has been relatively easier in low latitude countries. For example, Java, Mindanao, and parts of Vietnam are relatively more sensitive to ENSO developments. The Conference stressed the importance of medium-term climate forecasting in less sensitive countries.
74. The Conference observed that a commonly recognized problem in the application of climate forecasts in the agricultural community is that currently available seasonal forecasts are at too large a scale to be useful for site level planning. Both spatial and temporal scales need to be refined for agricultural management applications. There is a need to downscale the global ENSO index based forecast into local level climate outlook products. These climate outlook products need to be further downscaled, keeping in view the specific vulnerabilities at the local level with reference to different seasons and different cropping systems. The Conference suggested that concerned international technical agencies assist national research organizations translate ENSO forecast information into applicable format for specific uses at the end user level.
75. The Conference realized that most research efforts have been directed from the climate and agro-ecological communities. They tend to involve a top-down approach, wherein users are sought for available forecast information. However, a bottom-up approach is more appropriate. In this approach, each situation is examined to identify niches and needs for climate forecasts. The Conference stressed the importance of articulating users’ needs.
12 76. The Conference further recognized that the communication of forecast information has been a major constraint. It suggested that countries accord high priority to improving the communications systems, keeping in mind the socio-cultural peculiarities of communities for whom the forecasts are intended to benefit.
77. The Conference agreed that even when reliable climate forecasts were communicated effectively, farmers, on many occasions, did not take the necessary preparatory actions. This has been attributed to the lack of resources, technology and motivation on their part, and shortcomings in policies and programmes on the part of governments. The Conference called upon governments of disaster prone countries to eliminate resource, technology and policy/programme constraints that hamper effective response to climate forecasts.
78. The Conference agreed that a long-term forecast would provide an indication of the behaviour of rainfall during the course of a season. However, there could be meso-scale intra-seasonal oscillations that might result in long dry/wet spells/cyclones and storms. Farmers could encounter such disturbances in the course of a cropping season. A long-term climate forecast system integrated with a short-range weather monitoring system would ensure a flow of practical, effective and user-friendly information.
79. The Conference stressed the importance of the systems approach to climate forecast and application. The application of climate prediction information requires a detailed consideration of the roles and interactions among the climatic, ecological and social factors involved. This includes climate observation systems; choice of climate prediction tools; design of climate forecast products to suit user needs; communication of the forecast products; crop climate models; and institutional constraints and social settings in which the decisions are made. The Conference called for the institutionalization of cooperative action among producers of climate information, concerned R&D agencies, policy makers and end users.
80. The Conference urged specialized agencies and regional organizations to help build capacity for translating global ENSO index based forecast information into locally applicable information for decision-making. It further recommended that concerned technical agencies help to close the gap between climate forecast information generation and the beneficial utilization of such information.
IX. ASIA FIVIMS FOR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS
81. The Conference discussed agenda item 10 on Asia FIVIMS for Disaster Preparedness, based on Secretariat document APDC/01/9 (attached as Annex XIII). It recalled that the Food Insecurity and Vulnerability Information Mapping System (FIVIMS) was conceived and recommended by the World Food Summit in 1996. The aim was to set up an integrated information system to show the extent (who, where and why) of undernourishment from the highest to the lowest levels in order to propose
13 effective solutions. It learnt that to support this initiative, the FAO Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) implemented the project entitled Asia FIVIMS with trust funds provided by the government of Japan.
82. The Conference was informed that Asia’s FIVIMS is being implemented in collaboration with the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). This enabled it to geo-reference the CRED Emergency Events Database (EMDAT) of 12,000 mass natural and technological disasters worldwide from 1900 up to the present. The project has, so far, geo-referenced 992 disaster events or 2,422 cumulative provincial units covering the 1990-99 period. This result will be used to draw up disaster frequency maps; assess vulnerability to natural hazards; and assist in the estimation of impact on vulnerable peoples.
83. The Conference further noted that the Asia-FIVIMS findings would be disseminated through an internet-based tool known as the Asia Key Indicators Data System (KIDS).
84. It was informed that with the use of this methodology as well as available local knowledge and information on natural disasters, geo-referencing could be extended down to the second or third administrative levels, i.e., the districts or communes.
85. The Conference agreed that more effort is needed to understand the linkages between frequency of natural disasters and chronic food insecurity. To support this effort, it recommended that governments establish and make operational their national FIVIMS.
86. It also suggested that in setting up national FIVIMS, governments may wish to take the critical path of awareness building, identification of focal points, networking, assessing user needs, evaluating existing national information systems, preparing a strategy and action plan, getting political commitment and linking up with the global FIVIMS. These crucial steps are contained in the “Guidelines for National FIVIMS: Background and Principle” published by the Inter-agency Working Group on FIVIMS.
87. In making this recommendation, the Conference stressed that care should be taken to ensure that there is close collaboration with all domestic and international players. This would help mobilize efforts for a common cause, promote technical cooperation and cultivate best practices.
88. In this connection, the Conference recognized the overwhelming importance of rice in the food security of the Asia and Pacific region. Rice based livelihoods, in fact, determine the household food security of the majority of peoples in this region. The Conference suggested that improvements of rice-based livelihoods, raising productivity and generating employment and incomes should be accorded high priority in national development plans. Other commodity-based livelihoods may also be prioritized in accordance with local cropping patterns.
14 89. The Conference welcomed the forthcoming East and Southeast Asian study on rice production, consumption, stocking and trade in rice.
90. The Conference recognized with appreciation the support of the government of Japan for the Asia-FIVIMS project and the FAO Special Programme on Food Security (SPFS) in selected low-income food-deficit countries in Asia and the Pacific.
X. DEVELOPING FARMING SYSTEMS AND BEST PRACTICES FOR DROUGHT-PRONE AREAS
91. The Conference discussed agenda item 11 on Developing Farming Systems and Best Practices for Drought-Prone Areas, based on the background information provided by Secretariat document APDC/01/10 (attached as Annex XIV). In the discussions, it covered causes, frequency and impact of droughts, current farming systems, strategy and new approaches and methods.
92. The Conference learnt that drought-prone countries in the region experience wide annual fluctuations in productivity and output. The prevalence of subsistence agriculture in these countries exacerbates the vulnerability of farming systems and livelihoods. 93. The Conference also learnt that the frequency and impact of droughts have increased over the years. This is attributed to the movement of people to marginal lands, agricultural intensification, growing water scarcity and climate change. It agreed that drought-related disasters would worsen unless drastic interventions are taken immediately. 94. The Conference observed that the urgency of drought combating action, at the outset, varies in time and with the country and area. Also, many public and private agencies deal with the problem. In such circumstances, efforts are often sporadic and fragmented and they lead to nowhere. The importance of continuous integrated actions was emphasized. The Conference called for the establishment of task forces/partnerships/consortia of all public and private stakeholders to solve the drought problem. 95. The Conference recognized that existing response programmes for drought-prone areas tend to be limited in scope and depth. They typically focus on immediate needs such as drinking water, food, crop and livestock loss prevention, and short-term employment. The assistance given is generally inadequate and understandably, limited to accessible peoples and areas. The Conference urged new approaches, strategies and methods to protect farming systems, resources and livelihoods in drought-prone areas.
96. In considering recent drought-fighting measures for agriculture, the Conference highlighted the importance of prioritizing areas and peoples for resource allocation. Otherwise, resources would be spread too thinly to be effective. The Conference
15 recommended that vulnerable areas should be prioritized on the basis of agro-ecological zones. Within the selected areas, issues for R&D and drought-combating actions should also be prioritized.
97. The Conference agreed that from the economic perspective, integrated watershed management coupled with enterprise diversification based on carrying capacity and product value addition should be the main thrust. This line of action would ensure optimum resource-use, sustainability and income maximization. The Conference recommended that governments give high priority to watershed management, water harvesting and conservation, crop and livestock diversification, agro-forestry and agro-industry development.
98. The Conference underscored the importance of farmer participation in R&D. Only when farmers, scientists and extension workers operate as a team could new technologies suitable for local conditions emerge in drought-prone areas. The Conference recommended that R&D institutions undertake more on-farm research, with the full participation of farmers in indigenous knowledge assessment and adoption, resource appraisal, problem identification and programme implementation.
99. On farming systems and best practices, the Conference considered old and newly emerging technologies for drought preparedness and mitigation. It covered contingency crop planning, in-situ rain water harvesting, village and farm ponds, underground cisterns, crops, varieties and cropping systems, crop combinations, weed management, planting density, soil and crop management, integrated nutrient management, alternative land-use systems and others. The Conference recommended that governments and concerned institutions accord high priority to R&D of drought- resistant technologies and practices.
100. The Conference recognized that early warning, continuous monitoring and decision support systems are integral components of a programme to protect farmers’ livelihoods. Only if these components are effective, can farming adjustments and corrections be made in time; and optimal decisions taken to maximize returns/minimize losses, especially with mid-season and terminal droughts. The Conference suggested that special attention be paid to the establishment of a national early warning system for drought management, and a decision support system based on crop growth models, drought mitigation technologies, market forecasts and resource information.
101. The Conference also realized that appropriate R&D strategy and action plans are critical for sustainable development of arid areas. To support sound planning, it recommended that the action plans be applied to selected areas based on the same watershed, or having similar farming or other key characteristics. It further suggested that R&D plans be divided into short, medium and long-term activities.
102. In this regard, the Conference went on to identify gaps in research and technology development. It recommended additional work for a number of areas on a priority basis in the Asia-Pacific Region, namely, identification of research subjects/ issues in each agro-ecological zone; early warning and decision support systems; soil
16 quality enhancement; agro-bio-diversity issues; farming systems; participatory technology development; and technology assessment and refinement in drought management.
XI. DEVELOPING FARMING SYSTEMS AND BEST PRACTICES FOR FLOOD-PRONE AREAS
103. The Conference discussed agenda item 12 on Developing Farming Systems and Best Practices for Flood-prone areas in Asia and the Pacific, based on Secretariat document APDC/01/11 (attached as Annex XV).
104. The Conference noted that an estimated 13 million ha of agricultural, flood-prone land in South and Southeast Asia are located mostly in Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia. They are flood-prone as a result of rainwater accumulation, river discharge and tidal movements.
105. The Conference observed that traditionally vulnerable peoples have developed unique livelihood systems to cope with floods. This usually involves complex farming systems of crops, livestock and fisheries. Recent interventions with water control structures and farming technologies have led to significant improvements in productivity, employment and incomes. But there are also some negative results. To ensure sustainable improvements in peoples’ livelihoods and to protect natural resources, the Conference agreed that it is vital to combine advanced technologies with indigenous knowledge systems. The Conference recommended the participatory approach in developing farming systems and best practices in flood-prone agriculture.
106. The Conference agreed that flood control structures have not eliminated floods. They can only change the conditions and circumstances of floods. Since large agricultural populations live in flood-prone areas, governments should give high priority to the R&D of farming systems and best practices. In this regard, the Conference urged more funding of this neglected sub-sector.
107. The Conference concurred that there are two basic approaches to raising productivity in flood-prone areas. One is the engineering approach using embankments, dykes, and sluices and other structures. The other is the agronomic approach that focuses on high yields and flood pre-empting methods. The general practice is to combine the two. Improvements should be considered in this light.
108. Looking at possible improvements, the Conference highlighted the importance of post-monsoon drainage in areas such as Northeast Bangladesh, Cambodia and parts of Vietnam. If excess water can be drained quickly by January, a high-yielding rice crop of short-duration can be transplanted and harvested by the end of April each year. There would be no loss of growing time and the danger of flash floods would be minimized.
17 109. To avoid flood damage, the Conference pointed to the need for high yielding rice varieties that mature early. It added that the introduction of cold tolerance through breeding would help to reduce the growing period.
110. In this regard, the Conference underscored the importance of genetic conservation. Genes for flood and other stress tolerance should be conserved in gene banks as well as in-situ. The high priority given to bio-diversity and gene conservation would pay huge dividends in future breeding programmes for disaster-prone areas.
111. The Conference observed that for flood-prone areas, more advanced technologies are available for rice in the dry season than in the wet season. For example, limited advances have been made on deepwater rice cultivation.
112. In the search for productive and environmentally friendly farming systems and best practices in flood-prone areas, the Conference recommended that the following merited intensified R&D:
a) improvement of rice varieties especially deepwater rice; b) suitable cropping patterns, sequences and mixes; c) improvement of varieties of subsidiary crops such as maize, soybean, mung-bean, cowpea and other pulses, kenaf, forage, etc.; d) breeding of quick-growing fish species; e) combinations of livestock, poultry and fish; and f) optimal farming practices and methods such as seed storage and selection, “soil block” seedling production, zero tillage for non-rice crops, integrated pest management, integrated soil nutrient management and cost-effective harvesting, threshing, field transportation, storage and others.
113. The Conference agreed that the engineering approach has provided improved conditions for agriculture in flood-prone areas. Farming systems and practices must make the best use of the improved conditions for higher productivity, incomes and food security. They must, at the same time, be environmentally friendly and protect natural resources. To realize this dual objective, the Conference recommended that governments, concerned R&D agencies, NGOs and international aid organizations collaborate to:
a) build awareness of eco-technology; b) mobilize resources for investment; c) formulate participatory action plans; d) build technological capacity; e) set up or strengthen implementing mechanisms; and f) reinforce decision support systems (DSS).
18 XII. DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR ANIMAL HEALTH
114. The Conference considered agenda item 13 on Disaster Risk Management Strategies for Animal Health, based on Secretariat document APDC/01/12 (attached as Annex XVI). It observed that in the past 15 years, animal disease emergencies, especially infectious and vector-borne animal diseases, have increased in frequency and impact. Even developed countries have become more vulnerable.
115. The Conference agreed that the worsening situation could be attributed to livestock production intensification; diminishing animal health support services; livestock movements; and climate change. Population growth, socio-political instability, migration and increasing trade have also aggravated the problems. Earlier dependence on isolation for limiting the spread of diseases is no longer workable.
116. The Conference concurred that a new perspective on animal disease outbreaks is necessary. It called for integrated systems for prediction, early detection and risk-based surveillance for early warning. This would lead to structured responses to contain disease outbreaks.
117. FAO established the EMPRESS livestock programme to support the development of such integrated systems. The vision is to promote the effective containment and control of the most serious epidemic livestock diseases, as well as newly emerging diseases, by progressive elimination on a regional and global basis, through international cooperation involving early warning, early and rapid reaction, enabling research and coordination. The Conference recommended that governments establish and/or reinforce integrated livestock disease surveillance and response systems.
118. In this task, the Conference urged that governments pay special attention to developing a national outbreak response plan to deal with known and emerging communicable livestock diseases, including zoonoses. The national outbreak response plan should have a focal authority for the declaration of outbreaks, a standing task force, a field network of trained personnel, an information dissemination system and a mechanism for cooperation between human and animal health services.
119. The Conference also called upon countries to follow the EMPRESS code of conduct in dealing with emergencies referred to as Good Emergency Management Practice (GEMP). GEMP is the sum total of structures, procedures and management practices leading to early detection, prediction of likely spread, prompt limitation, targeted control and elimination, with subsequent re-establishment of verifiable “freedom from infection” in accordance with the International Animal Health Code.
120. The Conference earmarked the following areas for concerted intensive study:
a) causes of new diseases and reappearance of old diseases;
19 b) loss of disease resistance owing to cross breeding of indigenous and imported animals; c) conservation of native breeds and selective breeding; d) diseases caused by inappropriate feeds and feeding practices; and e) globalization of diseases due to economic and trade developments.
XIII. MANAGING THE CONTINUUM OF RELIEF, REHABILITATION, RECONSTRUCTION AND RECOVERY ACTIVITIES FOLLOWING DISASTERS IN FOOD AND AGRICULTURE
121. The Conference deliberated on agenda item 14 on Managing the Continuum of Relief, Rehabilitation, Reconstruction and Recovery Activities Following Disasters in Food and Agriculture, based on the background information provided by Secretariat document APDC/01/13 (attached as Annex XVII). It considered the nature and scope of disasters, the emergency cycle, tasks and emerging issues.
122. The Conference noted that natural and man-made disasters have increased in recent years. It acknowledged that the people most severely affected by them are often those living in rural areas, and it is generally the resource poor that is the most vulnerable. Pre and post-relief interventions are becoming increasingly important. In this regard, the difficulty of intervening in disaster situations when governments’ capacities have been weakened was raised. The Conference learnt that even in such chaotic circumstances, FAO has been able to undertake disaster preparedness, mitigation and recovery activities. In Afghanistan, for example, the Organization worked with local communities in seed multiplication, livestock development and support to animal health and other sustainable agricultural enterprises.
123. The Conference acknowledged that interventions in emergencies could be described as a sequence of events with distinct phases including early warning, prevention, preparedness, impact assessment, relief, rehabilitation, reconstruction and sustainable recovery. This sequence has sometimes been referred to as the disaster cycle. The Conference agreed that the continuity of these events, one merging into another, i.e., the relief-development continuum means that development objectives cannot be pushed aside during emergencies. The linkage of relief and rehabilitation/ reconstruction/recovery activities is important. It offers a way to return to a situation where food and agricultural development can take place.
124. The Conference agreed that there is an urgent need to strengthen the management of disaster cycle interventions. It stressed that governments must allocate sufficient resources for this purpose. This prerequisite is critical in order to reduce dependence on aid, adopt a self-reliant approach and ensure swift agricultural recovery. Specifically, the Conference agreed to support FAO’s plans to enhance preparedness and response to emergencies by:
20 a) strengthening disaster preparedness and the ability to mitigate the impact of emergencies; b) forecasting and providing early warning of adverse conditions in the food and agricultural sectors and of impending food emergencies; c) assessing needs and formulating and implementing programmes for agricultural relief and rehabilitation, and formulating policies and investment frameworks that favour the transition from emergency relief to reconstruction and development in food and agriculture; and d) strengthening local capacities and coping mechanisms to reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience.
125. The Conference also agreed that the groundwork on disaster prevention could help to strengthen disaster management. Improvements in forecasting techniques and the reduction of vulnerability could minimize the impact and complexity of disasters. In this regard, the Conference called upon FAO and other concerned international agencies to support prevention activities at the country level.
126. In discussing how to strengthen disaster management, the Conference stressed that it is important to adopt an approach that addresses the root causes of disasters rather than the consequences. This would not only cause a higher priority to be given to resource allocation; but also place short-term activities in the context of medium and long term development programmes.
127. The Conference emphasized the importance of paying more attention to the following, when adopting an approach that addresses the root causes of disasters:
a) linkages between poverty and vulnerability to disasters; b) sustainable natural resource management including, among others, institution of common property regimes; c) rural financial services aimed at investments in risk reduction schemes and employment diversification; and d) innovative mechanisms such as rural financial services, insurance schemes and food-for-work programmes.
128. The Conference agreed that a comprehensive policy package that integrates to all possible extents, disaster intervention, natural resource conservation and sustainable agriculture and rural development policies, is essential for cost-effective disaster management. It called upon governments to give high priority to formulating such integrated policy regimes.
129. The Conference reiterated that the participatory approach is necessary to ensure effective disaster management. It urged governments and NGOs to decentralize and empower local institutions and communities to assess needs, support coping mechanisms and draw up rehabilitation/reconstruction/recovery activities suitable for local conditions.
21 130. The quality of the original assessment of needs is critical. It sets the tone for mitigation, rehabilitation and sustainable recovery activities. Therefore it is vital to incorporate local participation.
31. The Conference agreed that the participatory approach requires capacity building at the local level. Individuals in the community, especially women, must be trained in new technologies, as well as be involved in the mobilization of local traditional knowledge for disaster management. The Conference recommended that countries develop disaster management training programmes within the framework of TCDC.
132. The Conference observed that fragmentation, duplication and independence characterize many disaster management programmes at national and international levels. It highlighted the need for improved coordination and collaboration among disaster workers. In this regard, it recommended that countries establish or strengthen interagency capacities for disaster management and coordination.
133. The Conference emphasized that access to information improves the management of disasters. Knowledge of the nature of specific disasters, their impacts, past responses and results and new technical developments would help to avoid mistakes and pitfalls and promote innovations. The sharing and dissemination of information and know-how in the field of agricultural disasters should be encouraged. In this regard, the Conference suggested that governments set up/strengthen information networks on disasters to build awareness and raise capacity for disaster handling.
134. The Conference noted that disaster assistance to countries in all eight phases of the disaster cycle, namely, early warning, prevention, preparedness, impact and needs assessment, relief, rehabilitation, reconstruction and sustainable recovery is an integral part of FAO’s mandate. In this work, FAO’s thrusts have been to raise vulnerable peoples’ resilience and capacity to cope with disasters, and foster the transition from relief to recovery in agricultural livelihood systems. The Conference recommended that member governments collaborate in these activities within the framework of the WFS Commitments and the FAO Strategic Framework and Medium Term Plan.
XIV. LEVERAGING SUPPORT FOR DISASTER MANAGEMENT WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO FOOD AND NUTRITION ASSISTANCE AND WOMEN
135. The Conference considered agenda item 15 on Leveraging Support for Disaster Management with Special Reference to Food and Nutrition Assistance and Women, based on Secretariat documents APDC/01/14/A and APDC/01/14/B (attached as Annexes XVIII and XIX).
22 A. FOOD AND NUTRITION ASSISTANCE
136. The Conference discussed the impact of disasters on household food security and nutrition, and the incorporation of nutrition considerations in disaster management.
137. The Conference noted that disasters affect household food security and nutrition by their negative impact on people’s access to food and health care. In a disaster situation, there is hunger, malnutrition, morbidity and mortality. These, together with the breakdown of the local economy, lead to disruptions in livelihood systems. It is therefore important that nutrition intervention be regarded as an integral component of disaster management programmes.
138. The Conference agreed that such interventions must be based on the damages caused by disasters to household food security and nutrition systems. Typically, there is displacement from homes, loss of productive assets, decline in labour capacity, destruction of agricultural infrastructure, reduction in food availability, disruption of health services and increased risks of diseases, food contamination, mental health problems and diminished care for children and other vulnerable groups among others. The result is malnutrition and deficiency disorders in many forms including protein-energy malnutrition, vitamin A deficiency, iodine deficiency, anemia, scurvy, pellegra, beriberi and others.
139. To address these problems, it is important to gain a good understanding of livelihood systems in the areas exposed to such risk. In this regard, the Conference agreed that special attention should be paid to identifying the key factors that influence the nutritional status of those affected in previous disasters, and the impact of emergency relief and rehabilitation programmes on them. It underscored the importance of interaction among major players such as the FAO, WFP and UNICEF.
140. The Conference was aware of the coping strategies adopted by households during emergencies. These include consumption of immature crops, “wild” foods, seed stocks and contaminated foods, emigration of adults in search of work, sending away of children and other survival measures. The Conference drew attention to the need for study, selection and promotion of appropriate coping mechanisms. They are derived from local culture and can contribute to the formulation of alternative strategies.
141. The Conference highlighted another much-neglected component of disaster management, namely, risk-aversion. In traditional farming systems, mixed farming, diversity of crops and farm animals, home vegetable gardening, multiple cropping and other subsistence-oriented practices provide some protection against natural hazards. They are more resilient in aberrant weather conditions and provide more diversified and balanced diets. With increasing commercialization in agriculture, mixed farming is replaced by cash cropping and mono cropping. This trend should be reversed. The Conference recommended that R&D in mixed farming systems for risk-minimization in disaster-prone areas be given high priority.
23 142. Following an examination of specific food security and nutrition enhancing activities at the household level, the Conference underscored the importance of food processing. Besides, preserving food for a rainy day, dried, smoked, fermented and canned fish, meat, fruits, vegetables, roots, tubers, etc. can raise household incomes, improve diets and provide work especially for women. The Conference urged more government technical and funding support for research and extension in food processing and preservation at the farm household level.
143. To strengthen disaster management through nutrition support, community-based organizations providing health care services should be reinforced. This would make possible continuous dissemination of information and counseling on food sources, nutrition guidance, employment opportunities, availability of food, health and welfare assistance, etc. The Conference called upon governments to give high priority to the decentralization of health care and other services.
144. The Conference recognized that emergency food assistance, and the provision of water, shelter and medical treatment are crucial in the immediate aftermath of disasters. Failure to deliver quickly, comprehensively and effectively is common among developing countries. The Conference recommended that governments set up or strengthen emergency relief systems including stand-by relief units, rules of procedure, physical facilities and transport infrastructure for pre-positioned food stocks and medical supplies, and local leadership contacts.
145. The Conference advocated the strengthening of Food-for-Work (FFW) programmes to help disaster victims secure access to food and assist their return to sustainable livelihoods. In this regard, it suggested a participatory approach, the adoption of a shelf of FFW projects ready for implementation, and focus on activities that are agriculturally productive. The Conference also noted the need for strengthening other disaster alleviating services such as public food distribution systems, health and education.
146. Nutrition information cannot be covered by one-time assessments in the immediate aftermath of disasters. In reality, nutrition information is most needed several months after the occurrence of disasters, as households try to cope either with or without success. Information is needed to alert areas suffering from malnutrition, vulnerable households that are affected and to plan for assistance. But such attention has moved elsewhere. The Conference recommended that governments set up food and nutrition surveillance systems in disaster-prone areas.
147. In addition to nutrition surveillance, the Conference highlighted the need for nutrition education among vulnerable peoples. Such training and extension would build awareness of the value of traditional foods, as well as their balanced and healthy consumption among vulnerable peoples. In this regard, the Conference learnt that FAO has initiated a food composition network to promote the development and adoption of balanced diets especially in developing countries.
24 B. WOMEN
148. The Conference discussed ways and means of improving disaster management through gender positive policy and programme interventions. It noted that gendered development processes, roles and social milieus following disasters differ in their impact on women and men, with women bearing the heavier burden. The Conference emphasized the need for a shift in approach and substance in disaster preparedness and management, so as to reflect the critical role of women in emergency situations. 149. The Conference stressed the importance of distinguishing sex and gender in considering ways and means of mainstreaming the role of women in disaster management. 150. After considering from a social viewpoint, the vulnerabilities and capacities of women and men in disasters, the Conference called for changes to redress imbalances. They include those that deny or limit women’s access to capital, support services, facilities, movements and other rights that preclude or constrain them from assuming a more responsible and active role. This task requires changes in concepts and tools, institutions, legal systems, social values and attitudes, and support services and infrastructure.
151. The Conference agreed that conceptually, the socially accepted role of woman as a subordinate partner in disaster management should be challenged. It advocated mainstreaming gender through gender analysis and the use of gender statistics. 152. The Conference highlighted the importance of legal considerations in re-balancing the roles of women and men in disaster management. It called for action to incorporate gender perspectives into legal formulations and administrative directives in disaster management. 153. The Conference concurred on the need to change social values and attitudes regarding gendered constructions of masculinity and femininity. More androgynous personalities, reciprocity in gender relations, sharing of responsibilities and diffusion of roles would provide an improved cost-effective environment in disaster management.
154. The Conference realized that in many countries, purely technocratic paradigms of disaster management, emphasis on relief operations and top-down gender-blind approach that treated victims as passive subjects are the norm. An institutional shift towards vulnerability and capacity analysis, the participatory approach and gender planning and analysis to obtain the best out of the community are needed to leverage disaster management.
155. The Conference also recognized that an integral component of the package of measures to mainstream women in disaster management is to improve access to support services and facilities. In this regard, special consideration is needed for poor households, especially women-headed households. The Conference urged governments and NGOs to recognize and stress the role of women as prime movers in household
25 disaster management in their delivery programmes and mechanisms. These should also include increased female participation and training of both men and women.
156. In making the conceptual, attitudinal, legal, institutional and servicing changes, the Conference stressed that all players including the government, NGOs, CSOs, religious bodies, business, and the general public must be aware of the crucial need for collective action.
157. The Conference was informed of the work currently undertaken by FAO in cooperation with WFP to prepare guidelines for mainstreaming gender in responding to disasters.
XV. SPECIAL MINISTERIAL BRIEFINGS ON DISASTER EARLY WARNING, PREVENTION, PREPAREDNESS AND MANAGEMENT
158. The Conference was briefed by H.E. Mr. It Nody, Under Secretary of State, Ministry of Agriculture, Cambodia; H.E. Mr. Sompal, Member of the Planning Commission, India; and H.E. Mr. D.M. Jayaratne, Minister of Agriculture, Sri Lanka. The briefings covered the situation and prospects of disaster early warning, prevention, preparedness and management in their respective countries.
159. The Conference noted the following priorities of the three countries:
a) mobilization of political commitment and funding; b) building awareness at all levels; c) implementation of innovations to protect farmers’ livelihoods in areas such as school curricula, comprehensive crop insurance, crop forecasting systems, food loss prevention, plant and animal quarantine, etc.; d) better governance and more efficient bureaucracy; e) implementation of national and regional strategies to protect natural resources and livelihood systems especially in the rice sector; f) transfer of technology in early warning and disaster management within the framework of TCDC; and g) collective self-reliance in combating disasters.
160. The Conference urged FAO to assist disaster-prone countries in developing programmes and projects in disaster early warning, prevention, preparedness and agricultural relief and rehabilitation after this Conference. As a start, it requested FAO to document and disseminate country experiences in disaster management, highlighting successes and failures.
26 Annex I APDC/01/Info. 3
LIST OF DELEGATES
BANGLADESH Mr. Muhammad Ahsan Kabir Chowdhury Joint Secretary Ministry of Agriculture Bhaban No. 4, 4th Floor Bangladesh Secretariat Dhaka Tel.: 8619339
CAMBODIA H.E. Mr. It Nody Under-Secretary of State Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Street 200 Norodom Blvd Phnom Penh Fax.: 855-23217320 Tel.: 855-012876778
Mr. Vann Hong Chief International Cooperation Office Department of Planning, Statistics and International Cooperation Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Street 200 Norodom Blvd Phnom Penh Tel.: 855-01187440 E-Mail: [email protected]
CHINA Mr. Wu Hongyao Director Agricultural Information Division Department of Crop Production Ministry of Agriculture 11, Nongzhanguan Nanli Beijing 100026 Fax.: 65018272 Tel.: 64192855 E-Mail: [email protected]
27 CHINA Mr. Yang Zhi Grassland Administration Officer Bureau of Animal Production and Health Ministry of Agriculture 11, Nongzhanguan Nanli Beijing 100026 Fax.: 0086-10-64192869 Tel.: 0086-10-64192830 E-Mail: [email protected] Mr. Zheng Dawei Professor College of Resources and Environment China Agricultural University P.O. Box 100094 Beijing Fax.: 86-10-62891016 Tel.: 86-10-62891406 E-Mail: [email protected] Mr. Ren Ronghua Deputy Division Chief C1015, Guohong Building State Administration of Grain A11, Muxudi Beili Jia, Xicheng District Beijing 100038 Fax.: 63906077 Tel.: 63906076, 63906065 E-Mail: [email protected] DPR KOREA Mr. Mun Jong Nam Counselor and Permanent Representative to ESCAP Embassy of DPR of Korea 14 Mooban Suanlaemtong 2 (Soi 28) Pattanakan Road, Prakhanong Bangkok 10250 Fax.: 662-3186333 Tel.: 662-3192686 FIJI Mr. Mataiasi Dinavuso Senior Agricultural Officer Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forest P.O. Box 358 Rodwell Road Suva Tel.: 384233 Ext. 271
28 INDIA H.E. Mr. Sompal Member of Planning Commission Government of India Yojana Bhawan Parliament Street New Delhi 110001 Fax.: 91-11-3714317 Tel.: 91-11-3710040 E-Mail: [email protected] INDONESIA Mr. Yun Tjahyana Head Domestic Procurement Programme National Logistic Agency (BULOG) Jalan Jenderal Gatot Subroto 49 P.O. Box 2345 Jakarta 12950 Tel.: 062-021-5252209 JAPAN Mr. Masao Matsumoto First Secretary Embassy of Japan 1674 New Petchburi Road Bangkok 10320 Fax.: 2539863 Tel.: 2526151 Ext. 253 E-Mail: [email protected] LAOS Mr. Anonth Khamhung Director-General Department of Planning Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry Lane Xang Avenue Vientiane Tel.: 021-415363 MALAYSIA Mrs. Rozanah Asmah bte Abd. Samad Veterinary Officer Department of Veterinary Services Level 8 & 9, Block A Wisma Chase Perdana Off. Jalan Semantan Damansara Heights 50630 Kuala Lumpur Fax.: 603-2535804 Tel.: 603-2540077 Ext. 194 E-Mail: [email protected]
29 MYANMAR U Thein Lwin General Manager Myanmar Agricultural Produce Trading (MAPT) 70 Pansodan Street, Kyanktada Township 11182 Yangon Fax.: 951-289587, 285518 Tel.: 951-254031, 510364 E-Mail: [email protected]
NEPAL Mr. Bhabani Raj Panday General Manager Nepal Food Corporation (NFC) Central Office, Bhadrakali Plaza Kathmandu, G.P.O. Box 987 Fax.: 977-1-262498 Tel.: 248883, 248891, 262992
PAKISTAN Mr. Iftikhar Hussain Shah Deputy Head of Mission Embassy of Pakistan 31, Soi Nana Nua (Soi 3) Sukhumvit Road Bangkok 10110 Fax.: 2530290 Tel.: 2530288-9
PAPUA NEW GUINEA Mr. Philip Pondikou Deputy Secretary Corporate Services Department of Agriculture and Livestock P.O. Box 417 Konedobu Fax.: 3211387 Tel.: 3211286
PHILIPPINES Mr. Samuel M. Contreras Supervising Agriculturalist Water Resources Management Division Bureau of Soils and Water Management SRDC Building, Elliptical Road corner Visayas Avenue Diliman, Quezon City Tel.: 9230462 E-Mail: [email protected]
30 PHILIPPINES Ms. Adelina B. Arellano Assistant Director Business Development and Promotion National Food Authority (NFA) 101E. Rodriguez Sr. Avenue Quezon City Fax.: 632-7115630 Tel.: 632-7121605, 7123341-9 E-Mail: [email protected]
SRI LANKA H.E. Mr. D.M. Jayaratne Minister for Agriculture Ministry of Agriculture Govijana Mandiraya, 80/5 Rajamalwatte Avenue Battaramulla
Dr. N.K. Atapattu Director Ministry of Agriculture Govijana Mandiraya, 80/5 Rajamalwatte Avenue Battaramulla Fax.: 94-1-8722096 Tel.: 94-1-878675 E-Mail: [email protected]
Mr. W.D. Gunatilaka Food Commissioner Food Commissioner’s Department 330 Union Place Colombo 2 Fax.: 94-1-434291 Tel.: 01-329842
THAILAND Mr. Manu Srikhajon Soil and Water Conservation Specialist Land Development Department Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives Bangkhen Bangkok Tel.: 5790067
31 THAILAND Dr. Songsak Srianujata Associate Professor and Director Institution of Nutrition Mahidol University Salaya, Phutthamonthon Nakhon Pathom 73170 Thailand
Mr. Pinit Korsieporn Director Foreign Agricultural Relations Division Office of the Permanent Secretary Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives (MOAC) Rajdamnern Nok Avenue Bangkok 10200 Fax.: 662-2816996 Tel.: 662-6299061, 2811109, 2815955 Ext. 136 E-Mail: [email protected]
Mrs. Ruangluk Indrambarya Planning and Special Projects Division Office of the Permanent Secretary Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives (MOAC) Rajdamnern Nok Avenue Bangkok 10200
Mr. Lerponk Misikaman Director Agricultural Cooperative Division Cooperative Promotion Department 12 Krungkasem Road, Theves Bangkok 10200 Fax.: 2817900 Tel.: 2818120 E-Mail: [email protected]
Dr. Chalerm Sindhusake Director Surveillance Center for Agricultural Disaster and Plant Pests (SCADAP) Department of Agriculture Fax.: 9405650 Tel.: 9405651 E-Mail: [email protected] or [email protected]
32 THAILAND Mr. Surasak Vanachayangkul Chief Chiangmai Land Reform Center 65 Suthep Road, Suthep District Chiangmai Tel.: 053-274606, 283611
Mr. Thada Sukhapunnaphan Director Hydrology and Water Management Center for Upper Northern Region Royal Irrigation Department 27/30 Thung Hotel Road A. Muang, Chiangmai 50000 Fax.: 053-248925 Tel.: 053-248925 E-Mail: [email protected]
Mr. Supan Karnchanasutham Director Remote Sensing and GIS Sub-Division Office of Agricultural Economics, MOAC Chatuchak, Bangkok 10900 Fax.: 9407036 Tel.: 9407035 E-Mail: [email protected]
Mr. Veerasak Udomchoke Deputy Director Earth Technology Division Department of general Science Faculty of Science Kasetsart University Bangkok Fax.: 5793711 Tel.: 9428381 E-Mail: [email protected]
Mr. Anawat Sukhotanang Senior Forestry Official Royal Forest Department MOAC
33 THAILAND Mrs. Prajuab Lewchalermvong Senior Plan and Policy Analyst Foreign Agricultural Relations Division Office of the Permanent Secretary MOAC Mr. Decha Jenkollop Senior Policy and Plan Analyst Planning Division Department of Livestock Development Bangkok 10400 Fax.: 6534926 Tel.: 6534462 Mrs. Natharin Sangthong Home Economist Agricultural Administrative Development Division Department of Agricultural Extension Phaholyothin, Chatuchak Bangkok 10220 Fax.: 5614828 Tel.: 9406113 Mr. Kongthat Janchai Policy and Plan Analyst Natural Resources and Biodiversity Institute Office of the Permanent Secretary MOAC Mr. Yuttachai Anuluxtipun Agronomist 7 Land Development Department Phaholyothin Road Chatuchak, Bangkok 10900 Fax.: 9100214 Tel.: 5791970 E-Mail: [email protected] Mr. Jullapun Nonsrichai Vice President Public Warehouse Organization (PWO) Ministry of Commerce Maharaj Road Bangkok 10200 Fax.: 6236041 Tel.: 6236041, 8152755
34 THAILAND Ms. Chachanok Subsermsri Secretary Public Warehouse Organization (PWO) Ministry of Commerce Maharaj Road Bangkok 10200
Mr. Saran Permpool President Maejo University Chiangmai 50290 Fax.: 6653-498861 Tel.: 6653-498130, 878038-50 Ext. 1100 E-Mail: [email protected]
Mr. Tanakorn Pramoolpol Northern Region, Civil Defence Center 199 Moo 1, A. DoiSaket Chiangmai Fax.: 053-291042 Tel.: 053-291042, 291283
USA Ms. Regina L. Davis Senior Emergency Coordinator U.S. Mission/Rome Via Sardegna 49 00187 Rome ITALY Fax.: 3906-4674-2306 Tel.: 3906-4674-3515 E-Mail: [email protected]
RESOURCE PERSONS
Dr. H.P. Singh Director Central Research Institute for Dry Land Areas (CRIDA) Santoshnagar, Hyderabad, AP 500 059 INDIA Tel.: 040-91-4530177, 4532262 E-Mail: [email protected]
35 Dr. Peter Francis Moore Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) P.O. Box 6596 JKPWB Jakarta INDONESIA Fax.: 62-0251-622600 Tel.: 62-0251-622622 E-Mail: [email protected] Dr. Jean D’Cunha United Nations Development Fund for Women (UNIFEM) ESCAP, UN Building Rajdamnern Avenue Bangkok 10200 Fax.: 2806030 Tel.: 2882225, 2803810 E-Mail: [email protected]
NGOS, REGIONAL AND OTHER INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATIONS
CI ROAP Dr. Alice Escalante-de Cruz Project Officer (Food Safety) Consumers International Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific (CI ROAP) 5-1 Wisma WIM, 7 Jalan Abang Haji Openg Taman Tun Dr. Ismail 60000 Kuala Lumpur MALAYSIA Fax.: 603-77268599 Tel.: 603-77261599 E-Mail: [email protected] CIRDAP Dr. Mya Maung Director-General Centre on Integrated Rural Development for Asia and the Pacific (CIRDAP) Chameli House, 17 Topkhana Road Dhaka 1000 BANGLADESH Fax.: 880-2-9562035 Tel.: 880-2-9563384 E-Mail: [email protected]
36 MRC Mr. Bun Veasna Programme Officer Officer-in-Charge of Water Resources and Hydrology Programme Mekong River Commission Secretariat 364 Monivong Blvd. Sangkat Phsar Doem Thkouv Phnom Penh CAMBODIA Fax.: 855-23-720972 Tel.: 855-23-720979 E-Mail: [email protected]
APO Dr. Manuel S.J. de Leon Senior Programme Officer Agriculture Department Asian Productivity Organization (APO) 1-2-10 Hirakawacho, Chiyoda-ku Tokyo 102-0093 JAPAN Fax.: 81-3-52263954 Tel.: 81-3-52263924 E-Mail: [email protected]
ADPC Mr. A.R. Subbiah Technical Adviser Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) P.O. Box 4, Klong Luang, Pathumthani 12120 THAILAND Fax.: 66-2-5245360 Tel.: 66-2-5245357 E-Mail: [email protected]
Mr. Kamal Kishore Director Information, Research and Network Support Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) P.O. Box 4, Klong Luang, Pathumthani 12120 THAILAND Fax.: 66-2-5245360 Tel.: 66-2-5245354 Ext. 405 E-Mail: [email protected]
37 FAO (Rome)
Mr. Andrew Nadeau GIEWS Technical Coordinator Global Information and Early Warning Service (ESCG) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Viale delle Terme di Caracalla 00100 Rome E-Mail: [email protected]
Mr. Naoki Minamiguchi Vulnerability Analysis Coordinator, ESCG FAO Rome E-Mail: [email protected]
Mr. Guenter Hemrich Consultant, Food Systems Economist Food Security and Agricultural Projects Analysis Service (ESAF) FAO Rome E-Mail: [email protected]
Mr. Stephan Baas Rural Institutions and Participation Service (SDAR) FAO Rome E-Mail: [email protected]
Mr. Rene Gommes SDRN FAO Rome E-Mail: [email protected]
Mr. Thomas Laurent Senior Operation Officer Special Relief Operations Service (TCOR) FAO Rome E-Mail: [email protected]
38 FAO (Bangkok)
Dr. R.B. Singh Assistant Director-General and FAO Regional Representative for Asia and the Pacific FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific (FAO RAP) 39, Phra Atit Road Bangkok 10200 Fax.: 662-2800445 Tel.: 662-2817844 E-Mail: [email protected]
Mr. Dong Qingsong Deputy Regional Representative E-Mail: [email protected]
Mr. N.M. Hla Chief Management Support Unit (RAPX) E-Mail: [email protected]
Dr. B.K. Nandi Senior Food and Nutrition Officer E-Mail: [email protected]
Mr. D. Hoffmann Senior Animal Production and Health Officer E-Mail: [email protected]
Mr. T. Facon Water Management Officer E-Mail: [email protected]
Mr. D. de Vleeschauwer Information Officer E-Mail: [email protected]
Mr. Lee Nung Wan Policy Officer
Mr. T.C. Ti Senior Food Systems Economist E-Mail: [email protected]
39 RECOFTC Mr. David Ganz FAO APO (FONP) RECOFTC C/o Kasetsart University P.O. Box 1111 Bangkok 10903 Tel.: 9405700 Ext. 1249 E-Mail: [email protected]
Ms. Dararat Vibulcharoenkitja
Ms. Cristina Sriratana
Mr. Wichai Nomkhuntode
AFMA
Mr. M.R. Satyal Executive Director Association of Food Marketing Agencies in Asia and the Pacific (AFMA) 39, Phra Atit Road Bangkok 10200 Fax.: 662-6291203 Tel.: 662-6291203, 2817844 Ext. 350 E-Mail: [email protected]
Ms. Nopphan Weeraphan
Ms. Sutisa Loganit
40 Annex II
OPENING STATEMENT OF THE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE MINISTER OF AGRICULTURE AND COOPERATIVES, THAILAND, AT THE ASIA-PACIFIC CONFERENCE ON EARLY WARNING, PREVENTION, PREPAREDNESS AND MANAGEMENT OF DISASTERS IN FOOD AND AGRICULTURE
Excellencies, Distinguished Delegates, Ladies and Gentlemen,
1. Due to an unavoidable engagement in Bangkok, H.E. Chucheep Hansaward, Minister of Agriculture and Cooperatives has instructed me to convey his message to all of you at the Asia-Pacific Conference on Early Warning, Prevention, Preparedness and Management of Disasters in Food and Agriculture. I then read this message:
2. On behalf of the people of Thailand, I welcome you to the city of Chiangmai. It is a privilege and an honour for our country that FAO has chosen Chiangmai as the venue for this important Conference. And we are happy that so many ministers, high officials and experts have come to participate in this meeting.
3. The subject of this Conference, Early Warning, Prevention, Preparedness and Management of Disasters is indeed of paramount importance to Thailand and I believe the whole world. Increasingly, governments, NGOs and civil societies have become aware of the drag on economic and social development caused by natural and man-made disasters.
4. Thailand may not be as vulnerable as several other countries in this Region – like those located in the “Ring of Fire” and the Typhoon belt. Or those large countries with extreme weather conditions and dense populations living in marginal lands. But we also suffer floods, droughts, landslides, forest and plantation fires, deforestation, water erosion, and plant, animal and fish disease outbreaks among others. Every year unfortunate communities especially the rural people in some parts of the country experience disaster-induced losses of life and property. We are well aware of the suffering of the disaster-prone peoples in Asia and the Pacific and the rest of the World. Thailand supports any and all actions to prevent, mitigate and speed recovery from disasters that befall them.
5. The Conference I have been informed, is intended to mobilize commitment to step-up the work to protect farming systems, natural resources and livelihoods. Such
41 an initiative, arising from the Asia-Pacific Region, is timely and strategic. This is because Asia and the Pacific is the most disaster-prone region in the World. Nearly half the reported disasters in the decade of the nineties occurred here. Eighty per cent of the 150 million people world-wide killed, injured, rendered homeless and otherwise affected in the past 25 years were Asians and Pacific Islanders. This contrasts with three per cent Africans, five per cent Europeans and 13 per cent North and South Americans.
6. Frequency of disasters is high and impacts intense because of climatic, geographic and natural resource diversity, high population density and poverty. Increasingly, environmental degradation, climate change and settlement of marginal lands are making people vulnerable to natural hazards. The Region is subject to almost every conceivable natural hazard. And worst, it is increasingly susceptible to man-made disasters such as war, civil strife, economic crisis and plunder of natural resources.
7. The devastation is disproportionately high in the agricultural sector. Apart from death and injury, damage and loss of standing crops, livestock, food stocks, tools, equipment, buildings, irrigation and drainage systems, transportation networks and other capital occur. There is underemployment and unemployment leading to destitution and undernutrition. Emigration to cities follow. The ill-effects are transmitted from farm to the rural communities and eventually to cities as many vulnerable economies are agriculture-based. For many low-income food-deficit countries, years of painstaking economic development can be erased by a series of natural disasters. Some of their vulnerable peoples never recover completely. There are many examples of such disaster-impoverished communities and countries in this Region. The communities in Central Asia suffering their third consecutive year of drought this year; frequent flood victims in the river deltas of South Asia; and Pacific Islanders inhabiting cyclone-susceptible areas are cases in point. The disasters in fact are getting worst.
8. What can we do to turn the tide? At this critical juncture, I believe we can start by building peoples awareness of disasters Ð their causes, impact and prevention. Only with heightened awareness on the part of governments, NGOs and the general public can the participatory approach be adopted to actively combat food and agricultural disasters.
9. Next we can re-align disaster programmes from response to prevention and preparedness. It means in effect, to shift from the current focus on relief and mitigation activities to all-round early warning, prevention, preparedness, relief, rehabilitation and sustainable recovery activities. In other words, we must integrate disaster prevention with agricultural development. Success will require changes in attitudes, funding sources and methods of resource allocation. The belief that agricultural disasters can be prevented; a culture of self-reliance; and the practice of participatory governance will be essential.
42 10. To make a difference, it is also essential to mobilize sufficient resources to implement action plans effectively. In some low-income developing economies, governments find it difficult even to meet recurrent budgetary expenditures. Others can only put resources together for marginal development activity. In such unfavourable circumstances, finding investment funds for disaster prevention and preparedness will be hard. There are many other priorities. It is nevertheless important that we recognize this difficulty and seek ways and means to overcome it. Better agricultural development planning, higher private sector investment, more farmers’ inputs and increased NGO contributions are some avenues that are being followed.
11. These fundamental issues inevitably come up in any discussion on disasters. I have no doubt that they will emerge in this Conference. Thailand, and the rest of the World await your findings and recommendations. We are confident that you will launch this initiative on food and agricultural disasters successfully and forge guidelines that will direct our work at the country, regional and international levels.
12. Before I complete this opening statement, I wish to acknowledge the presence of three ministers. They are: H.E. Mr. It Nody, Cambodia; H.E. D.M. Jayaratne, Sri Lanka; and H.E. Mr. Sompal, India. Their august presence gives this Conference a very high profile indeed. It is testimony to the importance of this gathering. I feel extremetly regretful for not being able to meet all of you at this meeting personally.
13. I would like to thank FAO for organizing this Conference. FAO’s Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific has once again shown its sensitivity and responsiveness to the needs of this Region. The focus on the Food and Agricultural disasters is opportune and sound.
14. Last but not least, I would also like to point out to you that rice is the major staple food crop for the majority of the people in Asia. About 90 per cent of the global rice output is produced and consumed in the region. Given the importance of the continuous availability of rice for the large number of population in East Asia and the fluctuation of the supply of rice there is a need to review the current rice production, trading and stock holding status in this region. Therefore Thailand will take a lead role in studying these issues in the near future.
15. Finally, on behalf of the people of Thailand, I wish all representatives and experts fruitful discussions. As visitors from afar, you should also enjoy yourself outside this Conference hall. I, on behalf of the residents of Chiangmai, offer our help in any we can.
Thank you. I declare the Conference open.
43 (44 blank) Annex III
KEYNOTE SPEECH BY THE ASSISTANT DIRECTOR-GENERAL AND FAO REGIONAL REPRESENTATIVE FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC AT THE ASIA-PACIFIC CONFERENCE ON EARLY WARNING, PREVENTION, PREPAREDNESS AND MANAGEMENT OF DISASTERS IN FOOD AND AGRICULTURE MANAGEMENT OF DISASTERS: NEED FOR PLANNING, PERSEVERANCE AND INNOVATION
Excellencies, Distinguished Participants and Friends,
1. On behalf of FAO, I welcome you to this Asia-Pacific Conference on Early Warning, Prevention, Preparedness and Management of Disasters in Food and Agriculture. It is encouraging indeed to see so many countries and organizations represented at such high levels. Here, I would like to acknowledge the presence of the Minister of Agriculture, Sri Lanka, H.E. Mr. Jayaratne; Member of Planning Commission, India, H.E. Mr. Sompal; and Under-Secretary of State, Cambodia, H.E. Mr. It Nody. Your presence as well as the participation of senior most officials in the field of disaster mitigation, shows that we were right to heed the calls to action at the 25th FAO Regional Conference for Asia and the Pacific. Some of you may recall that no less than twelve Regional Conference delegations urged FAO to renew and reinforce efforts to help countries overcome disasters in Yokohama last August.
2. We have responded quickly. This is partly because the incidence and impact of disasters have increased significantly in recent years. Recurrent droughts, storms, floods, mudslides, tsunamis, earthquakes, forest fires, volcanic eruptions, and other natural disasters have caused more devastation in this Region in the last decade than any other in history. To convey a measure of the scale of the problem, let me quote some figures. Each year 150 to 263 disasters were reported in the nineties. About 130 million people were killed, injured, rendered homeless or otherwise seriously affected by natural disasters in the last two and a half decades in Asia. Right now, Large parts of Iran, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and several Central Asian countries are going into their second or third consecutive years of drought. The DPR Korea and Mongolia are suffering the after-effects of an extremely harsh winter following earlier disastrous years of alternating floods and droughts. And some parts of South East Asia may experience cereal production shortfalls owing to third to fourth quarter storms and
45 widespread flooding last year. In recent years, armed conflict, civil unrest and economic crises have also emerged as major causes of deprivation, hunger and dislocation of people.
3. FAO has responded by convening this Conference also because we realized that there is a need to focus attention on the damage done to food and agriculture. The ravages in the sector can be sudden or gradual. But the harm done to the livelihoods of farming communities is extensive. Droughts for example, come stealthily, cause standing crop and pasture losses and leave long-lasting after-effects in depleted reservoirs, lowered water tables and in some places salt intrusion of soils. Floods wash away people, houses and equipment as well as standing crops, stocks and livestock; wiping off years of asset building by farmers. Similarly storms, tsunamis, mudslides, fires, earthquakes and volcano eruptions kill people, reduce agricultural assets and cause unemployment and underemployment in the agricultural sector for years to come. The losses thus caused to biodiversity are at times not only colossal but also permanent.
4. Yet, governments of many vulnerable countries have not done enough to contain agricultural disasters and speedy recovery from them. Perhaps because immediate needs for drinking water, food, clothing and shelter as well as basic health services have taken up all available resources. Certainly because the prevailing mindset had been that agricultural disasters must be accepted as part of the cycle of good and bad harvests. And there is very little one can do about the weather and other factors and forces that cause disasters.
5. Such resignation is unacceptable. There is much that we can do in the early warning, prevention, preparedness and management of agricultural disasters to limit the damage to rural livelihoods. Present day technology and tools can prevent weather aberrations from turning into agricultural disasters. New planting materials and best practices can make farming systems resilient in natural calamities. Furthermore reinforced institutions, programmes, and legal provisions and instruments can help people cope and live with disasters and recover from them quickly.
6. Some examples will make these contentions clearer. Early warning systems based on agro-meteorological models, satellite imagery, statistical analysis and other observations like the ENSO are being used to provide hazard alerts up to a year ahead. FAO’s Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) has taken the lead in this field. Its GIEWS Workstation has customized tools to combine various data from multiple sources to identify emerging disaster areas down to sub-national level.
7. Revolutionary farming systems built on innovations in watershed management, plant varieties and cropping cycles, contingency crop planning and soil and nutrient management have been tested and applied in disaster-prone areas. FAO has assisted many Asia-Pacific countries to adopt such disaster-resilient farming systems. Noteworthy are our efforts within the framework of the Special Programme on Food Security in 15 countries of the Region. In this Programme, we undertake phased
46 introduction of natural resource management, efficient water-use, sustainable cropping systems, and diversification of income sources. Several countries have moved on to the expansion phase of the programme. Several more have asked to join.
8. Comprehensive risk management in agricultural communities is being developed. It involves identification and assessment of different risks leading to preparatory measures for risk reduction. FAO’s pioneering work among pastoral communities in Central Asia is receiving growing attention and interest.
9. Disaster management is now viewed as a continuum of early warning, prevention, preparedness, mitigation, relief, rehabilitation, reconstruction and sustainable recovery activities. This new approach combines disaster management with overall development activities. FAO has a road map for integrating these eight phases of the disaster cycle with agricultural development activities. Increasingly disaster-prone countries as well as concerned organizations are learning and adopting this approach.
10. There has been increasing recognition and conviction that we must know who and where the vulnerable people are and why before we can make any headway in improving food security. Identifying disaster-prone peoples is a major part of this essential task. Establishing national, regional and global Food Insecurity and Vulnerability Information Mapping Systems (FIVIMS) is currently being attempted as a follow-up to the World Food Summit. FAO is the prime mover of this multi-country and multi-agency venture. Our work in Asia will be presented at this Conference.
11. Mr. Chairman, these and other technological and management advances mean that we do not have to accept the inevitability of food and agricultural disasters. We can change traditional passive tolerance of natural disasters to more action-oriented resistance among the vulnerable farming communities. To succeed in mobilizing grassroots support for disaster reduction, we in FAO feel that planning, perseverance and innovation are critical.
12. Planning based on a proper perspective of agricultural disasters is critical because there are short, medium and long-term measures to be taken. So far the majority of disaster-prone developing countries have concentrated on immediate relief measures and some medium-term agricultural rehabilitation actions. These usually include the three urgent and basic actions of distributing food and water, supplying seed and other agricultural inputs and repairing canals, dykes, roads and other physical infrastructure. But they are not enough. More long-term programmes are needed. They include programmes for awareness building, raising early warning capabilities, strengthening agro-meteorology work, research and development of farming systems, improvement of natural resource management and provision of agriculture disaster support services. These can come about only with a long-term perspective plan. Such a long-term perspective plan must make disaster prevention and preparedness part and parcel of agricultural sector development.
47 13. Persistence and perseverance are needed on the part of disaster workers and local leaders because resources are always limited. Resources are especially scarce for investment in agricultural disaster prevention and preparedness Ð the results of which are not immediately visible and benefit only the poor and silent deprived rural communities. Concerned workers must adopt a strategy for continuous resource mobilization through partnership building and participatory action. The work of FAO’s Special Relief Operations Service at the global level is a good example. A focal point with strong capacity for resource mobilization at the national level is important in some disaster-prone countries.
14. Innovation among agricultural workers and farmers is the third important ingredient for success in combating agricultural disasters. Historically, early warning of floods and droughts seldom led to mitigation of the impending disasters. Thus over six months advance alerts of the last El Nino induced flooding did not lead to fruitful mitigating measures in several South-East Asian countries. Also, early knowledge of the coming drought in several Near-east countries last year, produced little in the way of improved water management, cropping systems and cultural practices among vulnerable communities. This poor response could be due to anyone or combination of reasons. The non-performance reasons include limited dissemination of the alert, inaction of officials and agricultural extension workers, technology constraints, scarcity of resources and inertia of the farmers. We in FAO believe that the basic technology as well as the communications infrastructure is available. It requires innovation and participatory action to transfer available technology to field practice. Invention and innovation are traits that must be nurtured among agricultural workers and farmers.
15. FAO has convened this Conference precisely to see how together, we can cultivate planning, perseverance and innovation in protecting farming systems, natural resources and livelihoods in disaster-prone areas. With the help of concerned institutions like the Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre, the Central Research institute for Dryland Agriculture of India and the Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council, we will be presenting 15 technical papers. These will outline the latest developments in the early warning, prevention preparedness and management of agricultural disasters particularly those caused by droughts, floods, storms, fires and livestock diseases.
16. In the next four days you are expected to come up with recommendations to guide FAO’s work in this major Priority Area for Inter-disciplinary Action of the Organization. We also look to this Conference to give direction to countries in their national programmes for early warning, prevention, preparedness and management of food and agricultural disasters. Specifically, we seek your advice on:
● Awareness and commitment building in government, farming communities and civil society; ● Resource mobilization for research, development and investment; ● Technology assessment, refinement and transfer; ● Formulation of national strategies and action plans; and
48 ● Collective self-reliance in disaster assistance within the framework of Word Food Summit follow-up.
17. Mr. Chairman, Distinguished Participants, Ladies and Gentlemen, in conclusion, let me stress that this is an important Conference for FAO and its member countries. It will highlight the current neglect and fragmented nature of agricultural preparedness work. And bring to the fore the urgent need for a strategy and action plan on food and agricultural disasters and the resources to implement it. Hopefully, the Conference will generate the interest and commitment of all stakeholders and players.
18. Finally, let me thank the Royal Government of Thailand and the Governor of Chiangmai for allowing FAO to hold this Conference in this beautiful city. I am grateful to the Distinguished Representative of the Minister of Agriculture and Cooperatives of Thailand, Mr. Tongchai Petcharatana, for delivering the Opening Statement of this Conference on behalf of the Minister of Agriculture and Cooperatives. I would also like to thank our member countries and international organizations for sending their representatives to this Conference. As head of this Regional Office, allow me to thank the Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre, individual consultants and FAO’s in-house specialists for preparing the technical background papers and for coming all the way to serve as resource persons. In particular, I must admire, Mr. T.C. Ti, Secretary of the Conference, in brilliantly guiding and putting together the technical programme. My appreciation and gratitude go lastly to the Association of Food and Agricultural Marketing Agencies in Asia and the Pacific and its able Executive Director, Mr. M.R. Satyal, for helping us to organize this Conference.
19. I hope you will enjoy this city and its beautiful people as much as the likely to be exciting discussions in the Conference.
Thank you for your attention.
49 (50 blank) Annex IV APDC/01/1
AGENDA
Opening Session
A. ORGANIZATIONAL AND OTHER GENERAL MATTERS
1. Election of Chairman, Vice-Chairman, and Rapporteur 2. Adoption of Agenda and Timetable
B. ITEMS FOR CONSIDERATION
SESSION I: EARLY WARNING
3. Strengthening Early Warning Systems for Food and Agriculture in Asia and the Pacific (T.C. Ti, FAO-RAP/Andrew Nadeau, FAO-ESCG) 4. Agro-meteorological Models and Remote Sensing for Crop Monitoring and Forecasting in Asia and the Pacific (Rene Gommes, FAO-SDRN)
SESSION II: PREVENTION
5. River Basin Management for Flood and Drought Prevention and Mitigation in Asia and the Pacific (T. Facon, FAO-RAP) 6. Forest Fire Prevention and Preparedness in Asia and the Pacific (Peter Moore, Center for International Forestry Research, Indonesia) 7. Pastoral Risk Management for Disaster Prevention and Preparedness in Central Asia Ð with Special Reference to the Case of Mongolia (Stephan Baas, FAO-SDAR) 8. Reducing Agricultural Vulnerability to Storms with Special Reference to Farming Systems and Methods (Guenter Hemrich, FAO-ESAF)
51 SESSION III: PREPAREDNESS
9. Long-range Climate Forecasts for Agriculture and Food Security Planning and Management in Asia and the Pacific (A.R. Subbiah and Kamal Kishore, Asian Disaster Preparedness Center, Thailand) 10. Asia FIVIMS for Disaster Preparedness (Naoki Minamiguchi, FAO-ESCG) 11. Developing Farming Systems and Best Practices for Drought-prone Areas (H.P. Singh, Central Research Institute for Dry Land Areas, India) 12. Developing Farming Systems and Best Practices for Flood-prone Areas (M.A. Razzaque, Bangladesh Agricultural Research Coulcil, Bangladesh) 13. Disaster Risk Management Strategies for Animal Health (Denis Hoffmann, FAO-RAP)
SESSION IV: MANAGEMENT OF DISASTERS
14. Managing the Continuum of Relief, Rehabilitation, Reconstruction and Recovery Activities following Disasters in Food and Agriculture (Thomas Laurent, FAO-TCOR) 15. Leveraging Support for Disaster Management with Special Reference to Food/Nutrition Assistance and Women (B.K. Nandi, FAO-RAP/Jean D’Cunha, UNIFEM, Thailand) 16. Drafting Committee 17. Adoption of the Report
52 Annex V APDC/01/Info. 2
LIST OF DOCUMENTS
Document No. Title Provisional Agenda Item No.
APDC/01/1 Provisional Agenda and Timetable 2
APDC/01/2 Strengthening Early Warning Systems 3 for Food and Agriculture in Asia and the Pacific
APDC/01/3 Agro-Meteorological Models and Remote 4 Sensing for Crop Monitoring and Forecasting in Asia and the Pacific
APDC/01/4 River Basin Management for Flood and 5 Drought Prevention and Mitigation in Asia and the Pacific
APDC/01/5 Forest Fire Prevention and Preparedness 6 in Asia and the Pacific
APDC/01/6 Pastoral Risk Management for Disaster 7 Prevention and Preparedness in Central Asia Ð with Special Reference to the Cast of Mongolia
APDC/01/7 Reducing Agricultural Vulnerability to 8 Storms with Special Reference to Farming Systems and Methods
APDC/01/8 Long-range Climate Forecasts for 9 Agriculture and Food Security Planning and Management in Asia and the Pacific
APDC/01/9 Asia FIVIMS for Disaster Preparedness 10
APDC/01/10 Developing Farming Systems and Best 11 Practices for Drought-prone Areas
APDC/01/11 Developing Farming Systems and Best 12 Practices for Flood-prone Areas
53 APDC/01/12 Disaster Risk Management Strategies for 13 Animal Health
APDC/01/13 Managing the Continuum of Relief, 14 Rehabilitation, Reconstruction and Recovery Activities following Disasters in Food and Agriculture
APDC/01/14/A Leveraging Support for Disaster 15 Management with Special Reference to Food and Nutrition Assistance
APDC/01/14/B Leveraging Support for Disaster Management with Special Reference to Women
APDC/01/Info. 1 Information Note
APDC/01/Info. 2 List of Documents
APDC/01/Info. 3 List of Delegates
APDC/01/Info. 4 Disasters in Asia and the Pacific: An Overview
APDC/01/REP Report of the Conference
54 Annex VI APDC/01/2
STRENGTHENING EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS FOR FOOD AND AGRICULTURE IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC*
ABSTRACT
This paper outlines the role of an effective early warning system in mitigating the food insecurity impact of natural and man-made disasters. It is observed that the nature of food and agricultural emergencies has been changing over the past twenty years. We now face threats to food security not only from natural hazards but increasingly so from man-made disasters or the combination of the two. Selected case studies are used to elaborate the nature of the crisis, the type and the timeliness of early warning information issued and the information- response linkages forged to alleviate human suffering and loss of life. The paper also underlines the basic elements for effective functioning of an early warning system. These relate to collaboration, use of state-of-the-art technology, development of objective methodologies for assessments and effective early warning-response linkages. In the end, of course, the worth of any early warning system is determined by its usefulness to the end users and its role in timely mobilisation of relief assistance for the affected populations. In this respect GIEWS’ experience around the globe could provide a useful guide for national early warning systems.
* Prepared by the Global Information and Early Warning Service.
55 CONTENTS
Page 1. INTRODUCTION ...... 57
2. THE CHANGING PROFILE OF FOOD EMERGENCIES ...... 57
3. GLOBAL INFORMATION AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEM ON FOOD AND AGRICULTURE (GIEWS) ...... 60 3.1 Main Elements of an Effective Early Warning System ...... 61 3.2 Early Warning Technology/Methodology and Impact Assessment ...... 62 3.3 Challenges Facing Early Warning Systems ...... 64
4. SELECTED CASE STUDIES FROM GIEWS ...... 65 4.1 The Case of Natural Disasters due to Floods in Bangladesh ..... 65 4.2 The Case of Food Insecurity due to Economic Crisis in Indonesia ...... 66 4.3 The Case of Economic Decline and Natural Disasters in Democratic People’s Republic of Korea...... 67
5. NATIONAL EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND GIEWS ...... 69 5.1 National Early Warning Systems (NEWS) ...... 69 5.2 Linkages between GIEWS and NEWS ...... 70
6. EARLY WARNING, ASSESSMENT AND RESPONSE ...... 71 6.1 Early Warning and Emergency Preparedness ...... 72
7. CONCLUDING COMMENTS ...... 73
56 1. INTRODUCTION
1. In spite of FAO’s deep commitment and the international community’s significant efforts to eradicate world hunger, a disturbing gap still exists and today millions of people throughout the world, particularly in developing countries, do not have enough food to meet even basic nutritional needs. Although global food supplies have increased substantially, peoples’ access remains heavily constrained by deep-rooted problems associated with poverty, including slow economic growth and lagging productivity and population pressure. In these circumstances, the delicate balance between having enough food to meet even minimum needs and facing severe food shortages can easily be upset by natural and man-made disasters and economic shocks.
2. There is little doubt that the need for an effective early warning system at both national and global levels is more pertinent today than ever before. As population pressure and competition for scarce resources, (including international food and humanitarian aid) grow, the disastrous impact of natural and man made catastrophes is becoming all the more apparent. The last few years have also shown that the periodicity of disasters, probably also linked to events such as El Niño and global warming, appears to be increasing in frequency and magnitude. Indeed, there are indications that agriculture is becoming more vulnerable to environmental hazards, including frequent floods, droughts, cyclones, and storms, that can damage life and property and severely reduce agricultural production and people’s food security. Changes in average climate conditions and increased climate variability can have not only short term impacts, but also significant long-term effects on agriculture and food production in many parts of the world. Particularly vulnerable are low-income populations that depend on isolated agricultural systems and who have very limited coping capabilities, especially in countries that are poorly integrated into world markets.
3. The objective of this paper, therefore, is to outline the role of an effective Early Warning System in the emergency preparedness and in mobilising assistance for mitigation of the food insecurity impact of such calamities.
2. THE CHANGING PROFILE OF FOOD EMERGENCIES
4. World-wide in 2000 there was an increase in the number of food emergencies with the number of countries facing serious food shortages even higher than in the disastrous drought year of 1984. In Asia, the incidence of food and humanitarian emergencies increased phenomenally last year, due to a succession of natural disasters including the earth-quake in India and tremendous devastation in a number of countries following widespread floods. The region was also affected by continuing drought, which saw a decline in food production in key producing areas, including China, India and Pakistan. Luckily, these countries have been successful in the last two decades in raising food production and hence could effectively deal with the shortfall in food
57 supplies. Moreover, in many countries of the region progress has been made in reducing the proportion of undernourished people, though their numbers still remain very large.
5. Food supply problems have been exacerbated this year by the worst winter weather in decades in a number of countries in the region. In addition, a growing phenomena in the profile of food shortages in the region, in the last decade or so, has been economic disruption, particularly in the transitional economies, such as Armenia, Azerbaijan, as well as those low-income food-deficit countries hit by the financial crisis in 1997/1998.
6. The Emergency Operations (EMOPs) for food aid jointly approved by the FAO Director-General and WFP Executive Director and executed by WFP account for only a subset of the total disasters in the world, but none-the-less provide important proxy information for the extent and the nature of emergencies. The EMOPs data shows that globally, over last 7 years, about one-half of the people covered under such emergency operations were from Asia followed by 40 per cent from Africa, 10 per cent from Europe and only 1 per cent from Latin America (see Figure 1). On the budget side, Asian emergency food aid operations amounted to about 35 per cent (see Figure 2). Africa, of course, due to the prolonged structural stagnation of agricultural sectors and general economies in many countries and the highly precarious food situation, had almost half of these emergency operations.
LATIN LATIN AMERICA AMERICA EUROPE 1% 1% 10% EUROPE 15%
AFRICA 40% AFRICA 49% ASIA ASIA 35% 49%
Figure 1. Distribution of Total Figure 2. Distribution of Total Budget Beneficiaries of Jointly Approved of Jointly Approved EMOPs by Region, EMOPs by Region, 1994-2000 1994-2000
7. Since the 1980s, there has also been a significant shift in the major causes of food emergencies. Whereas natural disasters were the major reason formerly, during the 1990s man-made disasters, including war/civil disturbances, financial and economic crises, gained considerably in importance and by last year were the underlying cause
58 of nearly 50 per cent of global food emergencies (see Figure 3). The number of people affected by food emergencies has also tended to rise. As of early 2001, for example, it is estimated that some 62 million people are affected by food emergencies of varying intensity compared to 52 million a year earlier.
40
35 Man-Made Disasters Natural Disasters 30
25
20
15
10 (Number of Affected Countries) Affected (Number of 5
0
1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Figure 3. Trends in Causes of Global Food Emergencies, 1981-2000
WORLD 8. Using the EMOPs data again Crop Failure & as a yardstick, it can be seen that only Droughts War & Civil Strife 29% 18 per cent of emergencies food 48% assistance operations (in value terms) in Asia were classified as of Sudden Natural man-made causes such as war, civil Disasters 23% strife and economic crisis (see Figure 4). It should be noted that not AFRICA all economic crises in Asia led to food Crop Failure & insecurity requiring outside food Droughts assistance. By contrast, similar War & Civil Strife 18% 57% figures for the man-made disaster Sudden Natural category world wide were 48 per cent Disasters 25% and in Africa were 57 per cent. In Asia, the majority (53 per cent) of the ASIA emergencies requiring food aid were due to crop failures (mostly due to War & Civil Strife Crop Failure & droughts) and additional 29 per cent 18% Droughts 53% were due to sudden natural disasters Sudden Natural (mostly floods) during the 1994-2000 Disasters 29% period. The proportion of sudden natural disasters in Asia is more-or- Figure 4. Major Reasons for EMOPs less comparable to such disasters in Involving Multilateral Food Aid, Africa as well as world wide. 1994-2000
59 3. GLOBAL INFORMATION AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEM ON FOOD AND AGRICULTURE (GIEWS)
9. GIEWS was established in 1975 in the wake of the world food crisis of the early seventies on the recommendation of the World Food Conference (1974). These recommendations were endorsed at the Twenty-Ninth Session of the UN General Assembly. The ultimate aim of GIEWS is to avert hunger and suffering by providing accurate, timely and apposite information on food supply and demand to policy makers and policy analysts. Strict early warning, in this context, is the prediction of food crises before they happen. The System monitors the global food supply and demand in order to provide timely warnings of impending food supply problems facing individual countries.
10. The System continually receives economic, political and agricultural information from a wide variety of official and unofficial sources. Institutional links and information-sharing agreements have been established with several UN Organisations, 116 governments, 4 regional organisations and over 60 NGOs. The System maintains regular contact with FAO’s regional, subregional and country offices, and most of FAO’s technical units for information sharing and for the development of methodologies. In recent years, the decentralisation of FAO has strengthened reporting systems from the field. FAO offices world wide provide information to and from governmental and intergovernmental authorities, compile regular situation reports and once-off communications. FAO field offices also assist in the dissemination of GIEWS publications.
11. The System’s crop monitoring activities are supported by FAO’s Environment and Natural Resources Service which provides near real-time satellite images through FAO’s Africa Real Time Environmental Monitoring Information System (ARTEMIS), and also agrometeorological assessments conducted by the Agrometeorology Group. The Emergency Centre for Locust Operations (ECLO) and the Emergency Prevention System for Transboundary Animal and Plant Pests and Diseases (EMPRES) provide GIEWS with information on migratory pest movements and control operations on a regular basis. The System draws on analyses provided by commodity specialists, within the Commodities and Trade Division, for information on a variety of food commodities. Regular contact is also maintained with Food Security and Agricultural Projects Analysis Service. The Service is responsible for planning and backstopping FAO-supported Regional and National Early Systems.
12. The System has a true global coverage, though particular emphasis is placed on countries and regions where food emergencies are most likely to occur. In countries without an early warning system, GIEWS relies on a direct flow of information from the appropriate technical services within the government, on FAO field staff and on NGOs. Efforts are continually being made to cultivate and consolidate these links, but gaps sometimes occur in the System’s information coverage, and it is necessary to dispatch specialised information-gathering missions.
60 13. GIEWS’ activities concentrate on: (a) Monitoring of complex set of factors responsible for causing food insecurity in the world at global, regional, national and sub-national levels. This is typically achieved through rapid assessment missions and co-ordination with other information gathering agencies in the field, at national as well as international levels. (b) Analysis of the extensive information on the current world food supply/demand problems as well as the database accumulated in the past quarter century is one of the System’s exceptional assets. It is always important to put the current situation in perspective, especially when evaluating the magnitude of an emergency. This data set is all the more important given that in some countries consistent data have not been collected in the past and/or have been lost or are unreliable. (c) Dissemination of processed vital information to the policy makers. This is achieved primarily through GIEWS’ core publications “Food Outlook”, “Foodcrops and Shortages”, and “Food Supply Situation and Crop Prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa”. Numerous Special Reports and Special Alerts are also produced. These publications are freely available to all on its Internet site at the address http://www.fao.org/giews/.
3.1 Main Elements of an Effective Early Warning System
14. Based on its long experience, GIEWS has found the following main elements as necessary for an effective early warning system:
a) Collaboration: An effective early warning system has to form backward linkages on the input side with various national and international agencies/ units working on the early warning related information so as not to duplicate the effort, and forward linkages on the output side with the major donors (or assistance units in the national context), policy makers and media, in order to deliver information efficiently and generate quick response. Cooperation and feed-back mechanism with the end users is also essential in this collaborative process to help improve the quality of information sought for early warning purposes. b) State-of-the-art Technology: Taking advantage of the advances in the information technology, an early warning system has to rely on most modern technology to the extent possible for monitoring, analysis and dissemination of the relevant information. An example of such technology, developed and adopted by GIEWS, is a computer workstation for data management and early warning analysis, ranging from crop monitoring using up-to-date satellite images to estimating food import requirements. There is usually trade-off between the thoroughness of the information and the time required to collect, process and make that information available to users for effective response. Hence, use of modern technology can help us buy more time for action in alleviating the food insecurity effects of disasters.
61 c) Objective Methodology for Monitoring: In order to enhance the objectivity and the credibility of food supply assessments an early warning system requires well developed and field tested methodology that is clear in purpose and fairly straightforward in its application field. This may include a set of guidelines for conducting crop and food supply assessments, along with proven operational procedures as well as ready made packages of background information for effective monitoring under various circumstances and scenarios. d) Early Warning-Response Linkage: Early warning system without the follow-up response would be a purely academic exercise with little practical value. Therefore, it is vital that the early assessment and warning is linked to the response mechanism so that the end goal of helping people being affected by the crisis is achieved.
3.2 Early Warning Technology/Methodology and Impact Assessment
15. In the last 25 years, the “science” of early warning has necessarily evolved in terms of the methodologies and technologies used. This advance has been in response to:
● the changing determinants of food insecurity for example the expanding role of the private sector, globalisation and the effects of changing purchasing power of different groups within a country or region. These in turn have put a different onus on food security.
● tremendous advances in digital technology and the speed and manner in which data can be assimilated, analysed and disseminated.
3.2.1 Geographic Information Systems (GIS)
16. Modern early warning systems make effective use of up-to-date satellite-based data to monitor the current growing season on a regular basis and to identify trends in these data which denote possible precursors to problems such as drought. These data are visualised and analysed by GIEWS and other early warning systems using computer-based Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Although the use of satellite information can make a significant contribution to early warning in many situations, to fully utilise its potential, it not only has to be an integral part of an integrated analysis system, but also be easily accessible at reasonably low cost through user friendly PC-based platforms.
3.2.2 The GIEWS Workstation
17. With the need to manage and analyse information from many different sources ranging from in-country reports to global satellite images, GIEWS, with funding and support from the EC, has developed an integrated information system known as the
62 “GIEWS Workstation”. The Workstation is composed of custom software designed for early warning which have increased the speed and efficiency of analysis and information dissemination. It provides an excellent example of an integrated information system combining: a) WinDisp, a public domain GIS developed by GIEWS for analysing near real-time satellite images for crop monitoring, b) country cereal balance sheets, and c) an electronic news service. The system is also linked to a unique reference database with relevant information on food security at global, regional, national and sub-national levels, allowing analysts to consult various crop calendars, crop statistics, administrative maps, and demographic information.
18. Using WinDisp’s satellite image analysis and map overlay functions, analysts can assess rainfall and vegetation information in areas important for staple food crops and pastoral lands. In arid and semi-arid parts of the world, satellite technology has been extremely useful in monitoring vegetation condition throughout the growing season, and allowing for comparison with images from former years and the norm. The use of satellite images as an input to early warning analysis was first introduced for monitoring arid and semi-arid areas of sub-Saharan Africa updated on a 10-day basis. These consisted of low-resolution (8-km) vegetation index (NDVI) images to assess vegetation conditions, and cold cloud duration (CCD) images as a proxy estimate for rainfall. Since 1998, GIEWS has access to global coverage, 10-day, 1-kilometre resolution NDVI images from the VEGETATION instrument on-board the SPOT-4 satellite. The SPOT-4 based NDVI were invaluable in ascertaining the extent of the drought in 1999 and 2000 in several Asian countries.
19. GIEWS is currently developing an interactive website known as GeoWeb which would allow users to access GIEWS databases and tools over the Internet in English, French and Spanish. GeoWeb allows users to develop their own maps on demand by combining the latest satellite images and digital maps, gain access to early warning information organised by country, and to query other Internet sites for relevant information. Several options exist which enable users to view, chart and map data.
3.2.3 Rapid Assessment Missions
20. In addition to regular monitoring and reporting activities using GIS and other information tools, an activity that is becoming increasingly important in early warning is rapid crop and food supply assessment missions (CFSAMs). These are normally fielded in respect to particular emergency activities and are a key element in information gathering pertinent to specific situations. The main objective of the missions is to assess the food supply situation over a marketing year at the national level, the level of food deficit and the amount of food aid required to meet emergency needs. Increasingly, experience of joint FAO/WFP missions has shown that to better target food intervention an assessment at sub-national level is important to identify which population groups will be the most susceptible to food shortages. The role of the CFSAMs should be understood in the context of ongoing local, national early warning and food information systems and the continuous monitoring of FAO/GIEWS. They are complementary to
63 ongoing long-term information strengthening activities and should not be viewed as a substitute for these activities. In recent years, the GIEWS has actively encouraged the employment of experts under TCDC schemes for its missions. On average the System undertakes some 30 CFSAMs a year although the number has increased in recent years and most are to sub-Saharan Africa. In the Asia Region, (including central Asia), over the past two years such missions have been fielded to Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cambodia, East Timor, Laos, DPR Korea, Indonesia, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
3.3 Challenges Facing Early Warning Systems
21. A combination of several factors such as: a) the changing nature of disasters and causes of food insecurity problems, b) an appreciation of growing resource constraints and c) the revolution in information technology, mean that early warning systems will have to be both adaptive and innovative in meeting the challenges of providing timely warning in preparedness and disaster mitigation. Systems will need to evolve in order to deal with growing hardships caused by natural disasters, man-made disasters and in some cases by the combination of the two. Methodologies are evolving to deal with food insecurities caused by transition from state-controlled/ centrally planned economies to more market oriented ones, due to economic crises and reforms, international sanctions, etc. This recognises that the problem of food security is not only related to production but also to access to food, market integration and purchasing power.
22. In the future, it is hoped that the methodological tools and database can be enhanced by a greater emphasis on non-cereal foods (the current emphasis is towards cereals) in order to capture changes in the capacity to access food supplies. National level monitoring has tended to focus on the biological and meteorological determinants of food supply. Now, with most of the world’s food markets operated by private sector, the importance of the economic and policy framework influencing production, trade and stock, has come to the fore. The early warning systems need to move towards a better understanding of the impact of domestic policies (sectoral and macroeconomic) on prices, supply and demand. There is also a need to strengthen an early warning system’s capacity to analyse the implications of world price movements for food demand in the LIFDCs.
23. Another aspect that is becoming increasingly clear is the need for better targeting mechanism of identification of vulnerable people. From the late eighties onwards, there has been a decline in world food aid resources, reflecting underlying changes in price and stock policies in the donor countries. Food aid has become a scarce resource and donors are ever keen to see that it is used only when it is most needed and delivered to the most needy. To this end, GIEWS has collaborated with Save the Children (UK), WFP’s Vulnerability Assessment and Mapping Unit (VAM), the Food Insecurity and Vulnerability Information and Mapping Systems (FIVIMS) developed out of the World Food Summit of 1996, and numerous national and
64 international organisations, in an effort to reach a common understanding on the appropriate tools for localised food security monitoring. The process of developing and harmonising such tools is in its infancy and remains a priority and challenge for the coming years.
24. In achieving this it is clear that no one system can operate in isolation but needs to be part of an intricate and reciprocal system, of information sharing, at both national and global level. This linkage is also essential in underpinning the process of warning with response. As these types of linkages have traditionally been weak, more concerted efforts by Governments, Donors and International Organisations will be essential to strengthen the linkages between early warning and relief response to deal with emergencies.
4. SELECTED CASE STUDIES FROM GIEWS
25. To illustrate the dynamic role that an early warning system can play, the following three case studies are presented. These relevant Asian cases are selected to demonstrate the diverse nature of emergencies covered and the national and international assistance mobilised to mitigate the effects of disasters and safeguard the food security of the affected populations.
4.1 The Case of Natural Disasters due to Floods in Bangladesh
26. During July 1998, as a result of exceptionally heavy rains in the basin areas of the rivers Brahmaputra, Ganges and Meghna, water levels rose rapidly in the downstream flood plain of Bangladesh. During the following two months three major floods occurred and about 50 per cent of the country was under water for periods of up to 67 days, at depths of up to three metres. The Aus rice crop harvest was interrupted, the planting of Aman crops was delayed and, in some areas, was never completed. Devastation was caused, not only to cropped areas, but also to rural people, their homes and their livestock. GIEWS issued a special alert in August 1998 on the impact of the floods on the food and agriculture sector in Bangladesh and other Asian countries. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food supply Assessment Mission was rapidly dispatched to assess the food supply situation and forecast food production, import requirements and food aid needs for 1998/99. The flood-related crop losses were estimated at 2.2 million tonnes of rice. The mission described the food supply situation resulting from losses as extremely serious in the flood-affected areas.
27. The floods affected the livelihoods of 25 to 30 million people either directly (losses of crops and livestock, destruction of houses, loss of property, etc.) or indirectly (reduced employment opportunities for day labourers, increased food prices, income reducing effects of high interest payments for loans, etc.). For landowners and sharecroppers (especially for those who had paid cash advances for land-rent) the direct effects were the most severe. The indirect effects were even felt in less affected surrounding areas causing wide spread food insecurity in the country.
65 28. A full-scale rescue and relief operation was launched by the government by mobilising the army for the rescue operations and distribution of food to the flood victims. However, the magnitude of the disaster was well beyond the capacity of the government to cope. Hence the early warning information on objective impact assessment and intense publicity contributed to the mobilisation of resources on a large scale. WFP’s emergency food-aid operation followed with a total budget of about US$ 114 million including some 460,000 tonnes of food intended to benefit 19 million people during 1998 and 1999. Agricultural rehabilitation assistance was also provided to the country.
4.2 The Case of Food Insecurity due to Economic Crisis in Indonesia
29. Along with other countries of Asia, Indonesia was affected by economic crisis in mid-1997. This crisis greatly increased the vulnerability of large sections of the population to food insecurity. Consequently, from a position of favourable economic growth in 1996 when the GDP grew at 8 per cent, the economy contracted by 15 per cent in 1998.
30. The recession, especially in the service, manufacturing and construction sectors, and lower domestic demand, resulted in a dramatic increase in unemployment. The number of unemployed rose to an estimated 20 million or 22 per cent of the workforce by the end of 1998. The ensuing problems were most acute amongst urban workers, where the loss in employment resulted in a dramatic decrease in purchasing power. Many unemployed urban workers moved to rural areas, thus exerting further pressure on the limited services in these areas.
31. To make matters worse, Indonesia in 1997/98 experienced the worst El Niño- induced drought in 50 years resulting in further reduction in rice production. Consequently rapid inflation, particularly of rice and other food prices during 1997 and 1998 (see Figure 5), followed and quickly eroded the real value of incomes of
350 Food Rice 300
250
200
150
100
Jan.98 Jan.99 Mar.97 May 97 July 97 Sept.97 Nov.97 Mar.98 May 98 July 98 Sept.98 Nov.98 Figure 5. Indonesia Ð Rice and Food Price Index (March 1997 = 100)
66 those lucky enough to be in work. A UNDP/ILO study estimated that the combination of stagnant wages and incomes and high inflation resulted in around 100 million people (48 per cent of the population) falling below the poverty line by the end of 1998.
32. The high and growing number of poor people in Indonesia and the prospects of the country entering next year with a substantial proportion of the population below the poverty line meant that urgent action and interventions were needed both to reduce poverty and to restructure and stimulate the economy, especially agriculture and food production. As part of this process, in June 1998 a Memorandum on Economic and Financial Policies was agreed to by the Government and IMF. This included measures to shore up purchasing power, control inflation, restore the banking system and strengthen institutions involved in managing the crisis. These reforms were seen as essential in stimulating agriculture and manufacturing and generating employment.
33. In addition to escalation of food prices, a high price variation among the various regions was observed. This was principally attributed to political uncertainty, market failures as traders were reluctant to buy, stock and transport rice and the declining role of BULOG, the National Logistics Planning Agency. Food imports rose dramatically from under 2 million tonnes in 1995-97 average to over 6 million tonnes in 1998/99.
34. To cushion the negative impact of food shortages, the Government introduced a special programme, to provide 10 kg of rice/family at a subsidised rate of RP 1,000/kg, for up to 17 million of the poorest families (or 85 million people). FAO/GIEWS took the following concrete steps to mitigate the impact:
● Special Alerts were issued in September 1997 and in February 1998; ● FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission (first ever mission of this kind in Indonesia) was fielded in April 1998 and another one in April 1999; ● advanced summaries of assessment were communicated to the World Bank and IMF; and ● extensive media links and major donor contacts were created. All of these efforts contributed in considerable amount to the mobilization of emergency food aid at the bilateral (principally by Japan) and multilateral levels.
4.3 The Case of Economic Decline and Natural Disasters in Democratic People’s Republic of Korea
35. This case study is an example of the role played by GIEWS in enhancing the food security of DPR Korea, affected by economic decline and natural disasters. Since 1995, DPR has faced a serious food crisis due to the combined effect of natural hazards and economic decline. The disintegration of the USSR, and much of its traditional barter trade, and the rapid pace of economic liberalisation in China and
67 much of the eastern bloc have effectively led to the cessation of privileged economic ties with these countries, on which the DPK’s economy depended heavily in the past.
36. These economic problems have manifested themselves in falling productivity and output in the agriculture sector, as domestic production of fertilisers and imports of essential chemical and other inputs, like fuel and spare parts, have fallen appreciably in recent years. In addition to these, food production is constrained by geography, land availability and climate, which have resulted in a system of agriculture which is characterised by short fallow periods and very limited crop rotations. Inevitably such a system has led to declining soil fertility and a precarious situation where more fertilisers and chemicals are needed to maintain output, but less are available because the country cannot afford imports. As a result, yields have declined. The fine balance in agriculture, therefore, is easily upset by natural calamities which have affected agricultural production in most years since 1995. A serious food emergency developed in 1995, when widespread floods destroyed large crop areas and vital agricultural structures. Again in July 1996 a re-occurrence of extensive flooding reduced domestic food production further and exacerbated the ongoing emergency situation. Recurring drought and harsh winters in subsequent years also took their toll.
37. Prevailing input and land constraints mean that the country simply cannot produce enough food grains to meet demand and hence has a growing dependence on imports. The capacity to import food commercially, however, is highly constrained by the weak economy, the consequent lack of foreign exchange and large international debt. These factors together have meant that DPR Korea had to resort to measures such as the use of barter trade to counter food supply problems. The terms of trade against such transactions, however, mean that it is costly in resource terms, whilst its unpredictability and lack of sustainability mean that it does little to offer a long-term solution.
38. During these difficult years, the Government and the people of DPR Korea have also made tremendous efforts to cope with the hardships stemming from food shortages. From a national perspective these efforts include, prioritising agriculture and food production in national planning, mass mobilisation of people to address agricultural needs, greater emphasis for planting individual household plots, increased autonomy to provinces to import food, through barter, from China, foreign remittances from ethnic Koreans abroad and campaigns to promote consumption of non-traditional foods, such as potatoes. The double cropping programme, undertaken with FAO’s assistance, has also enabled an additional crop of wheat and barley to be produced, in the months immediately preceding the main planting season of rice and maize. This, together with larger production of potatoes, has helped reduce somewhat the burden of food shortages during the critical lean period from June to September.
39. Throughout the emergency, FAO/GIEWS jointly with WFP has played an important role not only in alerting the international community of the extent of the problem but also in promoting response. Since 1995, 11 joint FAO/WFP missions were fielded to DPR Korea and the findings of these missions were instrumental in
68 mobilising substantial food assistance to the country. At the multilateral level, DPR Korea received over the last six years total assistance worth about US$ 1.22 billion which makes it the single largest beneficiary of the emergency operations executed by WFP. In addition, agricultural rehabilitation assistance was also mobilised, but it remains seriously short of the requirement.
5. NATIONAL EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND GIEWS
40. National governments have the ultimate responsibility for ensuring that all citizens are food secure. Currently, however, although many countries have shown interest, not all in the Asia region have functioning early warning systems. Indeed even among countries that had established systems earlier some have lapsed. Logically, therefore, the need for having recognised units within the institutional structure in a given country would be the first step in strengthening the effectiveness of early warning in Asia.
5.1 National Early Warning Systems (NEWS)
41. With changes in the profile of disasters and the possible increase in the frequency of their occurrence, Governments in Asia are aware of the need for achieving food security to ensure access to adequate food to all. Monitoring of the variables that determine the balance between availability of food and ensuring sufficient supplies, especially to those that are vulnerable and most in need in a post emergency situation basically constitutes the essence of early warning. The fundamental rationale is that pro-active interventions, including warnings, are far better than poorly executed and costly actions post event. An effective early warning system will lead to considerable time and cost savings in managing disasters. It will allow sufficient lead time for relief interventions and disaster mitigation. The cost savings will be especially important to countries facing foreign exchange constraints and having under developed infrastructure. In addition NEWS can allow proper pre-positioning of food stocks to cope with future emergencies more effectively. NEWS will continuously feed information on supply and demand parameters and continual updates to the policy makers to help make appropriate decisions on measures affecting imports and exports. But the over-riding benefit of an efficient early warning system would be the reduction in human hardships and possible loss of life.
42. A Regional Technical Cooperation Network for national early warning would provide much needed mechanism for efficient and continuous exchange of information and experiences as well as joint activities in the field of early warning and food information. This may also help to formulate a regional strategy to deal with more regional disasters and ensuing food emergencies.
69 5.2 Linkages between GIEWS and NEWS
43. Once Governments have agreed on the need to establish or strengthen NEWS, the next step would be to establish strong reciprocal linkages with GIEWS to enable technical development of systems and information flows. With GIEWS assistance in the provision of technology, computer software and technical support information systems could be developed in countries, which would form the basis of information exchange. With effective NEWS or regional early warning systems (REWS), would there then be a need for a global system? GIEWS asserts that while national and regional systems are essential and strengthening them is a priority, a global system is necessary for the following reasons:
● Objectivity and independence: Food information and assessment are often politically sensitive. National governments can suppress details of food crises, especially when they reflect poorly on national policies. Sometimes Governments may exaggerate requests for food assistance. An independent and objective body is able to assess the plausibility of information and the current and prospective food supply situation, which is acceptable internationally.
● Comparative perspective: National authorities may have their own definitions of emergencies and methods for quantifying requirements. This makes it difficult to compare requests for international assistance from different countries. By applying common definitions and methods, GIEWS is able to identify priority areas for attention and assistance.
● Technical assistance: GIEWS can provide technical expertise and know-how on monitoring, analysis and dissemination of the relevant information to the REWS and NEWS. It has developed a methodology “Guidelines for Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions” along with several other products.
● Easy access to information on cross-border risks: Many of the factors determining food security do not respect borders. Domestic policy-makers are often interested in knowing what is happening to world markets, as this will affect imports, exports and local prices. They need to know about cross-border pest risks. GIEWS provides the latest information on regional issues.
● Provision of information on world markets and in neighbouring countries: Information on the global food supply/demand situation, conditions in the regional countries and cross-border movement of food can be difficult or costly to obtain. GIEWS ensures that an analysis at the country, regional and global level is available to all interested parties, free of charge.
● Assessments in civil strife and war-torn countries: In conflict situations Government institutions may collapse. Data can be lost with no structures for collection and reporting. Such was the situation in Rwanda in 1994,
70 Somalia since 1992, and most recently Kosovo and East Timor. GIEWS acts as a “backup” in these cases.
● Advocacy role: Regrettably, humanitarian concerns are sometimes over-shadowed by political and resource concerns. GIEWS with its widely recognised neutral assessments, performs an important role in advocacy, through its regular reporting and its contacts with major donors and the news media, for all countries in need of humanitarian assistance.
6. EARLY WARNING, ASSESSMENT AND RESPONSE
44. An early warning system can never be judged in isolation from the decisions that it supports. Although effective early warning is a prerequisite for timely/effective response, the two are not fundamentally linked. Early warning and response facilities are often housed in different offices or agencies. This is advantageous, as early warning thereby maintains its independence and claims to objectivity. The downside is that early warning systems have little direct control over the outcome. Having an effective early warning system is no guarantee that interventions will follow. As the international media frequently show, famine, starvation and malnutrition continue to haunt many parts of the world. Sadly food resources are not always mobilised in sufficient volume, or they arrive too late to prevent human misery or in some cases to save lives. War or civil strife often hamper logistic operations so much that relief programmes fail to reach the most needy. However, without objective information and early warning there is no chance that timely and appropriate action will be taken to avoid suffering.
45. While there is no way to guarantee that responses will be adequate and appropriate, GIEWS strives to ensure that the early warning response link is continuously maintained and strengthened. Since its inception, it has monitored and reported on responses to food crises, highlighting areas where responses fall short of requirements and pressuring the concerned authorities to act. In general, the effective link to the response system is forged in the following three dimensions:
● Partnership with WFP: Strong working relations have been developed and maintained with WFP, the food aid arm of the UN. Close GIEWS and WFP co-ordination including joint missions to assess the food supply situation and needs, including food imports and aid requirements, help to ensure that reports and appeals for food assistance are consistent and well supported by up-to-date analysis. This forms GIEWS crucial link in the response mechanism at the multilateral level. The value of food aid emergency operations jointly approved by the FAO Director-General and WFP Executive Director during the past 7 year period totalled about US$ 6.15 billion, with an annual average of about US$ 1 billion in recent years. About 35 per cent of this aid was budgeted for Asia. In all 17 out of the total of 44 food aid recipient countries were from Asia and were fairly evenly distributed on the frequency chart during this period.
71 ● Regular Donor Contacts: GIEWS plays a prominent advocacy role in the donor community. Part of the process is about cultivating and maintaining regular informal communications. Another important dimension is transparency Ð meaning that donors have a clear idea of why assistance is needed and how the requirements have been quantified. Typically, consultation with representatives of major donor agencies in the country takes place prior to the field visits by the missions, they are invited to join as observers in the field and finally they are de-briefed about the findings of the field missions. Final findings are quickly communicated to the donor agencies and occasional formal meetings are held with them to mobilise assistance.
● Media Alerts and Reports: Special alerts and reports sensitising the international community about looming disasters are issued. The media have come to trust and depend on serious rapid assessments provided by GIEWS. GIEWS performs an important role in advocacy, through its regular reporting and through the news media, for all countries in need of food assistance, regardless of their political status. GIEWS has cultivated links with national and international news media groups. In recent years the media profile of the System has risen, expanding both the reach and the impact of early warning signals.
6.1 Early Warning and Emergency Preparedness
46. As far as the emergency preparedness is concerned, only a few countries in the world strive to prepare themselves to deal with food emergencies. Some of the measures considered include maintaining buffer stocks, emergency food reserve funds and other alternatives which require careful evaluation in light of each country’s capacity and preferences in dealing with national food security issue. What needs to be emphasised here is that the value of information and early warnings is even more critical in such cases due to substantially long time required for deliveries to the emergency victims.
47. The priority for early warning systems (both national and global) is of course to ensure that in a given situation, especially in a post emergency scenario, that those who need food assistance most, receive it. In this regard, more and more it is the national capacity of Governments and its institutions that will determine as to what extent food shortages are countered since resources for food assistance are largely from domestic sources and far exceed those through international food aid. The strategy for emergency preparedness to deal with food insecurity in the long term, of course, lies in countries developing their abilities in correcting the underlying causes of disasters on one hand (for example man-made factors such as war, civil strife, etc. and natural factors such as floods, deforestation, etc.) and building their own technical capacity to increase agricultural productivity on the others.
72 48. It is clear, however, that in order to avoid waste, food assistance programmes will have to become more efficient and effective in order to do more with less resources. The driving principles of efficient food aid interventions need to provide timely, appropriate and adequate relief interventions, to targeted populations keeping in mind that the main casualties of emergencies are normally women and children. Constant monitoring and identification of the most vulnerable peoples is carried out by VAM Units of WFP, FIVIMS developed out of the World Food Summit of 1996, and numerous national and international organisations.
7. CONCLUDING COMMENTS
49. Emergencies causing severe food insecurity in developing countries are complex involving multitude of factors and typically require fairly long time to formulate human response. Since the time is of the essence an effective early warning system is essential to understand the nature of the disaster and to collect, process and provide the vital information to the decision makers as quickly and as complete as possible. Fortunately over the years, the technology available to us has also improved. In this regard, FAO has gained substantial experience in the early warning technology through its GIEWS. The proposals made in the paper are to further establish and strengthen the linkage with national early warning systems in all countries of Asia and the Pacific to form an effective regional network.
50. This is even more important today since the nature of emergencies world wide is changing as we find globally there are likely to be just as many man-made disasters as there are natural ones. This changing nature of the emergencies requires the early warning systems to change and evolve in accord with the problems of food insecurity created by disasters and/or crises are not only supply driven but are also demand driven.
51. The past 25 years of experience of GIEWS has shown that the key ingredients of a strong and effective early warning system are Ð collaboration, institutional capacity building, state-of-the-art technology, and effective information-response linkage. The System has demonstrated that neutral and objective assessments, partnership with multilateral donor organisations, close contacts with major donor agencies and advocacy through media alerts and reports can help mitigate the disastrous effects on a large numbers of vulnerable people.
73 Annex VII APDC/01/3
AGRO-METEOROLOGICAL MODELS AND REMOTE SENSING FOR CROP MONITORING AND FORECASTING IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC*
1. INTRODUCTION
1. The first section of this note provides some insight into the rather intricate subject of determining the actual role of weather in crop yield variability in quantitative terms.
2. The following sections give an overview on the methods currently used to assess the impact of weather conditions on crop yields quantitatively: they include mainly crop-weather modelling combined with new sources of information such as remote sensing.
3. As in many other areas, crop modelling technology, tools and methods have undergone rapid developments in the recent years, an evolution mainly driven by technology, from computers to communications. With the due caveats listed below, the following can be seen as major tools available in crop-weather impact assessments: (1) Process-oriented models, (2) GIS techniques, geostatistics and random weather generators (RWG), and (3) Satellite inputs.
4. Process-oriented models were mostly designed in a research context for use at the scale of a field. They require considerable simplification to be usable under operational conditions. GIS techniques, geostatistics and RWGs are now well established tools. They have become part of all agrometeorological modelling of weather impacts on crops. Satellite inputs are somehow lagging behind both their potential and their reputation. This can be explained by several factors, including cost, lack of proper information of users, and the availability of the products.
2. WHAT ARE THE FACTORS BEHIND THE INTER-ANNUAL VARIABILITY OF YIELDS?
5. Time series analysis of agricultural statistics shows that the inter-annual variability of crop yields roughly stems from three sources: (i) trend, (ii) direct weather factors and (iii) indirect weather effects, pests, diseases, weed competition,
* Prepared by René Gommes, Senior Agrometeorologist, Environment and Natural Resources Service (SDRN).
75 Managed production etc. The issue of weather impact “Wild” production on food availability is further complicated by the fact that weather plays a part at several Harvest levels of the food production chain, as illustrated below in Storage figure 1. 6. The spectrum of the Distribution sources of weather-induced Transformation variability is thus rather wide and includes a number of direct and Transport indirect factors: it includes water availability and sunshine, pollination, animal and crop pests and diseases, trafficability, Consumption transport of pathogens by wind, irrigation, food storage, phenology, Figure 1. Agrometeorology deals with all the etc. weather-sensitive components of the chain leading from production to consumption of 7. The relative importance of all agricultural products, specifically the listed sources of the variability including animals and plants (after of food production depends largely Gommes, 1998a) on the general socio-economic setting. In many developing countries, the technology component is not very marked, and some countries among the poorest show no yield trend at all. This is a situation where the impact of weather can have dramatic conditions and threaten the food security of millions of people. When the same farmers will be gradually forced by circumstances to adapt to more commercial farming, they will go through a transition phase where their vulnerability to weather vagaries will increase.
8. Where the agricultural sector is more advanced (mechanisation, irrigation, improved varieties and advanced on-farm decision-making, etc.) the trend accounts for a large portion of the variability of yield (80 per cent and more). Figure 2 illustrates this behaviour in the instance of Bangladesh. The remaining 20 per cent (or less) is shared about equally between weather, and pests and diseases (Oerke et. al., 1994), of which many are also weather dependent. If the trend is removed from the time series, we can therefore assume that the largest fraction of the residual variability is due to weather.
9. The relative importance of weather variability also largely depends on the scale adopted for the assessment. At the low levels of aggregation, the variability increases, as shown in figures 3 and 4, while at the national level, where several cropping seasons and typologies are aggregated, the effect of weather is far less marked.
76 3.5
3
2.5 R2 = 0.9566 2
1.5
Yield (Tons/Ha) Yield 1
0.5
0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Figure 2. Trends of total rice yields in Bangladesh since 1972
3.5 Aus 2 3 Aman R = 0.8577 Boro 2.5
2 R2 = 0.8258
1.5
Yield (Tons/Ha) Yield 1 R2 = 0.7938 0.5
0 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Figure 3. Trends in rice crop yields in Bangladesh according to cultivation typology: early monsoon crop (Aus), late monsoon (Aman) and irrigated winter crop (Boro)
1000
950
900
850
800 R2 = 0.2762 HYV yield in Kg/Acre 750
700
1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997
Figure 4. T-Aman rice yields in Rajshahi upazila (district) between 1985 and 1998
77 10. Extreme agrometeorological events are factors, which often are at the same time rare (low statistical frequency) and characterised by high intensities. They include for instance large pest outbreaks, fire, torrential rains, tropical cyclones, etc. They can provoke massive destruction of infrastructure, crops, livestock, fishing gear, etc. and the loss of human life (Gommes, 1999a, 1999c).
11. A most important observation regards the impact of extreme factors. Normally, in spite of the massive destruction they can bring about at the local level and at a very precise time, their impact remains far less that the losses brought about by the chronic deficiencies of weather such as droughts, local pest attacks, biodegradation of agricultural materials, hail, etc.
12. Extreme events are not dealt with in this paper for methodological reasons1 and because far more losses are associated with the chronic and inconspicuous effects of climate variability.
3. CROP YIELD SIMULATION MODELS AND STATISTICAL “ MODELS”
13. A model is a programme (and the science behind it) that simulates (predicts) the behaviour (output) of a plant (e.g. yield) based on environmental conditions (inputs, incl. management) and variables describing the plant’s ecophysiology (parameters). There is in fact a large variety of models (as well as associated problems) which cannot be described here (refer to Gommes 1999b).
14. Figure 5 schematically illustrates the operation of a typical model: a model “ estimates” the effects of management and environment on plant growth and development. In practice, a model is an accounting system that keeps track of the amount of biomass stored in the different organs. On a daily basis, such variables as leaf area, sunshine, water and nutrient availability are compared to each other and the model determines the amount of plant material (biomass) that can be accumulated (daily growth, to be added to the old biomass). The daily growth is subsequently distributed among plant organs. The next day, the new biomass is exposed to the environmental conditions, etc.
15. Models must be calibrated, i.e. verified and fine tuned by comparison against a number of actually measured parameters, for instance soil moisture, soil nutrient content, actual biomass accumulation and yield, etc.
1 The effects of extreme factors on agriculture are difficult to model because of their sporadic nature. Preventive measures and warning systems require investments that exceed by orders of magnitude those used for the “normal” meteorological factors. In addition, extreme factors are normally dealt with by the National Meteorological Services in the Ministry of Transport, Public Works etc., and only rarely in Ministries of Agriculture.
78 Management Environment Model
SUNSHINE
SOIL MOISTURE, NUTRIENTS
Daily biomass LEAF ROOT accumulation (growth) BIOMASS BIOMASS
Partitioning of biomass between plant organs (phenology)
Figure 5. Schematic representation of a crop simulation model showing the interaction between environmental factors, crop growth and development, and management
16. Statistical “models” are multiple regression equations used to estimate crop yield as a function of one or more agrometeorological variables, for instance − Yield = 5 + 0.03RainMarch 010. TC, June with yield in tons Ha-1, March rainfall in mm and June temperature in °C. Beyond their simplicity, their main advantage is the fact that calculations can be done manually, and in the fact that data requirements are limited. The main disadvantage is their poor performance outside the range of values for which they have been calibrated. They often also lead to unrealistic forecasts when care is not taken to give greater priority to the agronomic significance than to statistical significance. The equation above, for instance, suggests that low March rainfall (a negative factor) could be corrected by below zero temperatures in June (frost), which obviously does not make sense.
17. Another disadvantage is the need to derive a series of equations to be used in sequence as the cropping season develops. For an overview of regression methods, including their validation, refer to Palm and Dagnelie (1993) and to Palm (1997a).
18. Many of the disadvantages of the regression methods can be avoided when value-added variables are used instead of the raw agrometeorological variables, as is done normally in crop forecasting systems set up with FAO assistance. Such a value-added variable would be, for instance, actual crop evapotranspiration, a variable
79 known to be linked directly with the amount of solar radiation absorbed by the plant under satisfactory water supply conditions or light water stress. Value-added variables are often obtained through the use of simple simulation models.
4. GIS TECHNIQUES, GEOSTATISTICS AND RANDOM WEATHER GENERATORS (RWG)
19. Models operate based on data from a specific location (a point), but crop forecasts need to be issued for larger administrative regions, such as districts, provinces, etc. The set of techniques wich are used to convert point data to larger areas belong to geostatistics (statistics of spatial data) and to Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Finally, weather conditions are normally not known at the exact location where a model is run. Geostatistical tools are now widely used to estimate weather condition at the location where a model is being run, although there is no meteorological station.
20. Since forecasts are issued while the crop is still growing in the field, there is also the need to estimate what the likely weather will be between the time of the forecast and harvest. For instance, assume that we are forecasting the yield of a crop planted in November and due to be harvested in May. Assume we are currently at the end of February, so that the actual weather conditions from November to February are known. We have to make some assumption for the “future” weather between March and May: we need i.e. a set of 30 or 50 years of weather data that may realistically occur. This will result in 30 or 50 yield estimates, the average of which can be taken as the current forecast.
21. There are several techniques, but a very common one is to resort to Random Weather Generator, a computer programme that generates synthetic weather series for a given location, based on the historical data for the station being investigated. In the words of Göbel (1995), synthetic series are not forecasts of what will happen in the future but rather samples of sequences of events which might happen.
22. They are extremely useful for many applications, from risk evaluation to crop forecasting.
23. RWG simulate the correlation and stochastic processes (Markov chains) that are present in the historical data. The processes are controlled by coefficients that are site specific. The coefficients driving a generator may be mapped (spatially interpolated) like any other variable, thus providing the possibility to generate synthetic weather covering large areas. Note that in most cases there is no spatial coherence in the thus generated fields.
24. Of the associated models and tools, Geographic Information Systems have become ubiquitous. GIS techniques are used to prepare the spatial input data for the regional applications; they are used after model runs to format and present the output and analyses.
80 5. REMOTE SENSING AND OTHER NEW DATA SOURCES
5.1 Overview
25. There is clear complementarity between simulation models and satellite data. First, because remote sensing can contribute to estimating surface agrometeorological variables2. Secondly there is now also a tendency to use satellite inputs in crop modelling (Seguin, 1992; Nieuwenhuis et. al., 1996; Stott, 1996; Cleevers and van Leeuwen, 1997). In spite of current shortcomings of the proposed methods, there is little doubt that with improving spatial and spectral resolutions, progress will be made in the area of water balance components (soil moisture) and biomass estimations (LAI and conversion efficiencies). An overview of the potential sources of data is shown in Figure 6, according to the concepts presented by Seguin (1992).
26. Early attempts to use satellite data in crop forecasting focused mainly on Vegetation Indices (VI), i.e. satellite-derived indices that are related to living green biomass. While the qualitative use of VIs has become routine in many countries, their quantitative use in crop yield forecasting has remained disappointing, due to well understood factors. It is suggested that one of the largest potentials for VIs and other satellite inputs such as cloud information lie in their use as auxiliary variables for stratification and zoning, and in area averaging of point data in combination with GIS and geostatistics.
27. In many circumstances, in particular in many developing countries, fields tend to be small and irregular in size and shape, crops are often mixed, etc. so that the sensors measure essentially a mix of crops and natural vegetation. It is then generally assumed that crops follow greenness patterns similar to vegetation. This is a reasonable assumption in areas where vegetation shows marked seasonality, for instance in semi-arid areas. Many of the difficulties listed disappear at higher spatial resolutions.
5.2 Vegetation indices
28. All vegetation indices are based on the fact that plants are green: they reflect a much larger proportion of white sunlight in the green part of the spectrum than in the blue and in the red portions. In fact, plants contain varying proportions of Chlorophyll-a (absorbing mainly the blue between 0.38-0.45 µm and the red around 0.675 µm) and Chlorophyll-b (0.41-0.47 µm and 0.61 µm). Plants reflect a much larger proportion of light in the near infrared, so that they appear normally very bright when seen through a near infrared filter or sensor. Figure 7 compares the reflectance3 of different types of surfaces in the red and near infrared.
2 They include rainfall, in combination with ground observations, actual evapotranspiration, leaf temperature. 3 The reflectance is the percentage of the incident radiation (including light) that is reflected. The word is also sometimes used to indicate the intensity of reflected radiance.
81 Canopy water content Actual Biomass evapotranspiration Surface moisture
Surface temperature Brightness temperature Backscattering coefficient Reflectance
Passive Active MW MW
-7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 λ
Infrared Radio
UV Microwave VHF HF Far Visible Ther- mal Near
0.3-0.9 µm 10-13 µm 2.5 cm-3.8 m µ 8.0-9.0 m 1.0-5.0 µm 1.2-1.3 µm 1.5-1.8 µm 2.0-2.4 µm 3.5-4.0 µm
Figure 6. Remote sensing sources of crop weather modelling inputs. λ indicates the exponent of the wavelength in m (-6 corresponds to a µm, -2 to a cm, etc.). The bottom line shows the main atmospheric windows, i.e. parts of the spectrum to which there is little absorption in the atmosphere. The absorption is mainly due to CO2 (thermal infrared) and water vapour. MW stands for microwave. Note that Radar satellites belong to Active MW.
82 Veg. norm 30 Veg. stress S
25 H2O
20
15 Reflectance
10
5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 µm
Figure 7. Reflectance spectrum4 of stressed vegetation, healthy vegetation
(veg. Norm), soil (S) and a water surface H2O. The arrow indicates the second (red) peak of absorption of chlorophyll.
29. It is obvious that the spectra of the different surfaces illustrated in figure 7 are characteristic for the surface and constitute their “spectral signature”. In principle, it should thus be easy to identify the surfaces simply by comparing their reflectance.
30. Things are not so easy, for several reasons. To start with, the spectral signatures are obtained experimentally on the ground under known conditions of irradiance5. The radiance measured by satellites has undergone qualitative changes (wavelength) and changes in intensity in the atmosphere. Further, the irradiance varies as well as a function of atmospheric conditions and angle of incidence (which is to say: the time of the day).
31. Many vegetation indices are thus “normalised” to correct for at least the most obvious atmospheric and soil effects, as in the popular Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI).
32. NDVI can be computed whenever red and near infrared reflectance (i.e. reflected radiance) are available, from such satellites as the LANDSAT-TM, SPOT and NOAA-AVHRR.
33. NDVI can be used to derive phenological information in the absence of ground data. Note that due to the presence of clouds, many readings have to be discarded, which may pose some serious problems in monsoon climates. The operational procedure is, therefore, to use only the maximum values for each pixel during a certain
4 The remote sensing jargon also calls the reflectance spectrum spectral reflectance. 5 Irradiance is the incident radiance, normally as sunlight.
83 period (for instance ten days). It is therefore also a common practice to smoothen the NDVI curves, often by drawing an envelope around the cloud of observations.
34. Assuming that crops and natural vegetation are synchronised, planting can be considered to take place at the dekad when NDVI starts increasing again after the dry season, or a fixed number of dekads after D (for instance D+4), or when NDVI crosses a locally determined threshold.
35. NDVI and other vegetation indices can, of course, be computed at any scale: companies in the USA have started providing very detailed NDVI maps of farms on a subscription basis at the metric scale.
5.3 Surface temperature and evapotranspiration
36. Because of its relevance for soil water balance calculations, a lot of interest is dedicated to the related subjects of estimation of ETP and surface temperatures using satellite data (Kustas and Norman, 1996; Bastiaansen et. al., 1996). The surface temperature Ts is the temperature of the layer of air immediately in contact with the leaf, and Ta is the conventional air temperature measured in a screen. 37. The interest in the difference between surface and air temperatures goes back to the work on Jackson’s CWSI (Crop Water Stress Index; Jackson et. al., 1981). The concept of CWSI is very similar to the FAO Water Satisfaction Index (WSI) introduced by Frère and Popov (1979) as a monitoring tool derived from a water balance calculation over the whole cycle6.
38. It can be shown (Laguette, 1995, 1997) that, for a given net radiation, there is a direct link between actual evapotranspiration and Ts-Ta, as Ts-Ta is a measure of the sensible heat flux which indicates how much energy is available for evapotranspiration. A large difference indicates reduced evapotranspiration and stomatal closure. A small difference indicates that water supply is adequate and that plants actually evapotranspire. In general, low temperature differences indicate healthy and photosynthesising crops.
5.4 Cold Cloud Duration (CCD)
39. Cold Cloud Duration (CCD) is determined using the geostationary satellites of the METEOSAT or GMS types. Because low cloud-top temperature thresholds correspond to high elevations, there are relatively very little atmospheric effects to be corrected in CCD when compared with NDVI.
40. GMS-4 is a Japanese satellite in geostationary orbit over the equator at approximately 140E. The satellite, which covers most of Asia and the western Pacific
6 Needless say that the are marked scaling effect when passing from CWSI to WSI.
84 Ocean, is equipped with the Visible and Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer (VISSR) imaging sensor, which uses the spin motion of the satellite to scan the earth in the East-West direction. GMS begins a North-South scan every hour on the half-hour, with four additional scans daily for wind estimation.
41. CCD has been used extensively in a food security context to estimate rainfall using various techniques. It is defined, for each pixel and for a given period (usually ten days), as the number of hours during the temperature was below a “cold” temperature threshold around -40°C, which corresponds to convective clouds with high vertical extension assumed to produce rainfall. The technique has been used to estimate rainfall with good results in tropical countries only. For a general introduction to the subject, refer to Bellon and Austin, 1986; Adler and Negri, 1988; Dugdale et. al., 1991; Snijders, 1991; Guillot, 1995, Petty and Krajewski, 1996.
42. Although the relation between the solar radiation reaching the ground and clouds is far from direct (Li et. al., 1995), the development of more or less empirical methods is progressing, usually with much better results than with rainfall (Lourens et. al., 1995; Wald, 1996; Supit and van Kappel, 1998), among others because the role of clouds in radiation interception is far more direct than in rainfall production. In addition, the methods, once they have been properly calibrated, apply in tropical and temperate countries alike.
43. The original approach was to try and estimate rainfall based on CCD only, -1 assuming a constant intensity Ri (mm hour ). Because of the large spatial and temporal variability of Ri, the method is now being replaced by more or less real-time calibration against ground data, using CCD as an auxiliary variable in the spatial interpolation of raingauge measurements.
5.5 Observations by microwave satellites
44. The use of satellites for the direct estimation of surface moisture involves a number of difficulties (Nemani et. al., 1993).
45. Active microwave (or radar) satellites operating in the centimetric range of wavelengths are relatively unhindered by clouds, and satellites such as ERS-1 and JERS-1 have been providing images of the earth since the early Nineties (Bouman, 1995). Radar is an active sensor in that it emits a bean or energy which is analysed after having been scattered back by the surface: it provides information about the surface, either crop canopy structure or soil surface. Regarding crops, active microwave responds well to row spacing and orientation, and even to leaf orientation. Little operational use has so far been made of the technique because of its large sensitivity to such factors as wind effects on the surface, including leaf orientation.
46. Much hope is placed in the technique to estimate soil surface moisture directly and possibly crop water content of certain plants. For the estimation of soil moisture, refer to Wagner et. al., 1999a, 1999b. Regarding the use of radar remote sensing, often
85 combined with visible imagery, for crop modelling and yield forecasting, see Huete, 1988; Clevers, 1989; Le Toan et. al., 1989; van Leeuwen and Clevers, 1994; Clevers, et. al., 1994; Bouman, 1995; Doraiswamy and Cook, 1995; Clevers and van Leeuwen, 1996, et Clevers, 1997.
47. Passive microwave measure the centimetric radiation emitted by the surface. It used to determine the brightness temperature7, or effective temperature that can be used in biomass estimations.
5.6 Ground-based weather radar
48. Weather radar, like microwave satellites, operates in the centimetric range. The technique basically measures rainfall intensity within a radius of about 100-km around the station, sometimes less. Its main advantage is that the spatial distribution of rain over short time intervals can be determined with a significantly better accuracy than with any other technique. As with satellite rainfall estimates, the best results are achieved over relatively long time intervals (days and beyond) after calibration against ground data. A reference quoted by Keane (1998) indicates that in shower conditions, radar calibrated against two raingauges over 1,000 km2 achieved the same accuracy as 50 raingauges.
5.7 Satellite Enhanced Data Interpolation (SEDI)
49. The SEDI interpolation method originated in an FAO context, the Harare based Regional Remote Sensing Project. It was originally developed to interpolate rainfall data collected at station level using the additional information provided by METEOSAT CCD. The methods proved powerful and versatile, and it is now regularly used to spatially interpolate other parameters as well (e.g. potential evapotranspiration, crop yields, actual crop evapotranspiration estimates, etc.).
50. SEDI takes advantage of the correlation between the variable to interpolate and an environmental variable, for instance NDVI/biomass and agricultural yields. One of the ways to approach this is co-kriging, a variant of kriging using one or more auxiliary variable and exploiting both the spatial features of the variable to be interpolated and the correlations between the variable and the auxiliary variables (Bogaert et. al., 1995).
51. Three requirements are a prerequisite for the application of the SEDI method:
● The availability of the parameter to interpolate as point data at different geographical locations (e.g. rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, crop yields). In the present case of statistical variables, they were assigned a co-ordinate corresponding to the centre of gravity of the administrative unit;
7 Brightness temperature is the temperature of a blackbody radiating the same amount of energy per unit area at the wavelengths under consideration as the observed body.
86 ● The availability of a background parameter in the form of a regularly spaced grid (or field) for the same geographical area (e.g. the above- mentioned NDVI variables, altitude).
● A monotonous relation, at least locally, between the two parameters (negative or positive; Yield/NDVI is positive, temperature/altitude would be negative). A Spearman rank correlation test can reveal whether a relation exists, and how strong this relation is.
6. CONCLUSIONS
(1) The leading crop simulation models (CERES, WOFOST, EPIC, and CROPSYST…) are far too complex for Early Warning use. If they are to be used routinely in the real world, models should focus on weather and crop variables that are actually available in the real world. Such models would also be scale-specific models, i.e. they would have been designed for their use over large areas (provinces, districts) rather than fields.
(2) New tools are needed, and some old tools should be modernised. Researchers should pay more attention to the development of non-parametric and rule based models, because of their simplicity of calibration and use, and low cost. More attention should also be given to efficiency than to fashion: for instance, regression models are not obsolete, but they need being integrated into monitoring systems in combination with the newer tools like GIS, geostatistics, random weather generators.
(3) Efforts must be made to give more attention to new real-time data in crop monitoring and forecasting systems. This includes satellite indicators and weather radar, but also direct (and possibly automatic) measurements on crops and weather at ground stations, or through aircraft remote sensing.
(4) A modular design should be adopted for crop monitoring and crop forecasting systems, as well as a greater inter-compatibility of tools. Users should be in a position to assemble their monitoring and forecasting systems by using building blocks (modules), for instance the root component of CERES, the assimilation block of WOFOST, Leaf-Area Index from the MODIS satellite, etc. The first step should be the harmonisation of data files in the direction of a universal self-documented format.
(5) A new category of models should be developed to assess, at various scales, the effect of extreme weather factors that physically harm plants (frost, sandy wind, and very strong winds), and a better integration of crop, pathogens and competitors. The scale issue takes particular significance in the ambit of EW systems, as other variables they use (socio-economic, nutrition) all come with native scales that must be harmonised.
87 (6) A serious effort should be made by agrometeorologists and remote sensing experts (including the agencies operating satellites) to publicise the available methods to the experts in national agrometeorological services and food security systems. At the same time, all aspects of accessibility to the new tools and data should be improved. This includes lower cost of products.
88 7. REFERENCES
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90 Le Toan, T., H. Laur, E. Mougin and A. Lopes,1989. Multitemporal and dual polarisation observations of agricultural vegetation covers by X-band SAR images. IEEE transactions on geoscience and remote sensing, November 1989, 27(6):709-718. Li, Zhanqing, H.W. Barker and L. Moreau, 1995. The variable effect of clouds on atmospheric absorption of solar radiation. Nature, 376:486-490. Lourens, U.W., C.M. van Sandwyk, J.M. de Jager and J. Van den Berg, 1995. Accuracy of an empirical model for estimating daily irradiance in South Africa from METEOSAT imagery. Agric. Forest Meteorol., 74:75-86. Nemani, R., L. Pierce, S. Running and S. Goward, 1993. Developing satellite-derived estimates of surface moisture status. J. Appl. Meteorol. 32:548-557. Nieuwenhuis, G.J.A., A.J.W. de Wit, T. van der Wal, C.A. Mücher, and H.J.C. van Leeuwen, 1996. Integrated use of high and low resolution satellite data and crop growth models. DLO N. 127, 130 pp. Oerke, E.C., H.W. Dehne, F. Schoenbeck and A. Weber, 1994. Crop production and crop protection. Elsevier, Amsterdam. Palm, R., 1997a. Les modèles de prévision statistique: cas du modèle Eurostat- Agromet. Pp. 85-108 in: Tychon, B., and V. Tonnard, 1997. Estimation de la production agricole à une échelle régionale. Official Publications of the EU, EUR 17663, Luxembourg. 202 pp. Palm, R., 1997b. Agrometeorological models: regression and trend analysis. Pp. 67- 76 in: EU/FAO, 1997. Palm, R., and P. Dagnelie, 1993. Tendance générale et effets du climat dans la prevision des rendements agricoles des différents pays des C.E. Official Publications of the EU, EUR 15106, Luxembourg. 132 pp. Petty, G.W., and W.F. Krajewski, 1996. Satellite estimation of precipitation over land. Hydrological sciences, 41(4):433-451. Rijks, D., J.M. Terres and P. Vossen (Eds.), 1998. Agrometeorological applications for regional crop monitoring and production assessment, Official Publications of the EU, EUR 17735, Luxembourg. 516 pp. Seguin, B., 1992. Utilisation combinée de données satellitaires et de modèles agrométéorologiques. Pp. 199-206 in: Proc. Of the Conf. on the application of remote sensing to agricultural statistics. 26-27 Nov. 1991, Villa Carlotta, Belgirate, Italy. Office for Official publications of the EC, EUR 14262, Luxembourg. 380 pp. Stott, Z., 1996. Predicting sugar beet yields using satellite data. SPOT Magazine, 26:14-16. Supit, I., and R. Van Kappel, 1998. A simple method to estimate global radiation. Solar Energy, in press.
91 Van Leeuwen, H.J.C. and J.P.G.W Clevers, 1994. Synergy between optical and microwave remote sensing for crop growth monitoring. Proc. sixth international symposium physical measurements and signatures in remote sensing, Val d’Isère, France, pp. 1175-182. Wagner, W., G. Lemoine, M. Borgeaud, H. Rott, 1999. A study of vegetation cover effects on ERS Scatterometer Data, IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sensing, in press. Wagner, W., J. Noll, M. Borgeaud, H. Rott, 1999. Monitoring soil moisture over the Canadian Prairies with the ERS Scatterometer, IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sensing, in press (January 1999 issue). Wald, L., 1996. Some comments on the use of satellite data for assessing solar radiation parameters, annex to Potentials of images from geostationary satellite for the assessment of solar energy parameters. In Proceedings of the Workshop ‘satellites for solar resource information’, held in Washington, D.C., 10-11 April 1996. Edited by R. Perez and E. Maxwell, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Boulder, CO., USA, 23 p. 24-38.
92 Annex VIII APDC/01/4
RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT FOR FLOOD AND DROUGHT PREVENTION AND MITIGATION IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC*
ABSTRACT
This paper discusses management-based strategies for flood and drought prevention and mitigation, with a brief introduction on the general problems that impinge on water resource management. Floods and droughts are central to the latter and should therefore be considered in any analysis of river basin management. A detailed presentation on their nature and the types that affect Asia, their occurrence and impacts, particularly on agriculture and food production, together with the impact of climatic change on their future intensity and frequency are also given. Strategies for sustainable development, food security and environmental preservation are recommended. Regional experiences and trends and the difficulties and complexities associated with them are examined. The paper concludes with some recommendations that may assist countries in the region improve their flood and drought mitigation measures.
* Researched and prepared by Thierry Facon, RAP Regional Water Management Officer.
93 CONTENTS
Page 1. INTRODUCTION ...... 96
2. FLOODS AND DROUGHTS ...... 99 2.1 Floods ...... 99 2.2 Floods and Agricultural Production ...... 101 2.3 Drought ...... 102 2.4 Food Storage and Famine...... 103 2.5 El Niño ENSO Events ...... 104 2.6 Flood Alleviation Strategies ...... 106 2.7 Floods, Droughts and Climate Change ...... 109
3. RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT FOR FLOOD AND DROUGHT PREVENTION AND MITIGATION ...... 112 3.1 Agenda 21 ...... 112 3.2 UNCCD ...... 114 3.3 World Food Summit ...... 116 3.4 Reducing Agricultural Vulnerability to Storm-Related Disasters...... 117 3.5 World Commission on Dams ...... 118 3.6 ESCAP ...... 119 3.7 FAO-ESCAP Project ...... 120 3.7.1 Vision for South-East Asia...... 121 3.7.2 Vision for South Asia ...... 122 3.8 FAO-ESCAP Pilot Project...... 122 3.8.1 Thailand ...... 123 3.8.2 Philippines ...... 123 3.8.3 Vietnam ...... 125 3.8.4 Malaysia ...... 127 3.9 Joint Initiatives of Mekong River Commission and FAO ...... 128
4. STATE OF THE ART ...... 131 4.1 Flood Alleviation Strategies ...... 131 4.2 Surface and Groundwater Management and Accounting ...... 135 4.3 Water Management Strategies for Agriculture ...... 137
94 CONTENTS (continued)
Page
5. LIMITATIONS AND DIFFICULTIES ...... 138 5.1 Complexity ...... 138 5.2 Problem of Scale...... 139 5.3 Problems of Uncertainty...... 142 5.4 Limits for Flood or Drought Alleviation Strategies ...... 144 5.5 Myths ...... 145 5.6 Limits in Valuation Methods ...... 146 5.7 Limits in Institutions ...... 147
6. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 148
BIBLIOGRAPHY ...... 151
95 1. INTRODUCTION
1. Water flow is unevenly distributed over the earth’s surface, and much of it occurs in seasonal floods because of spatial and temporal variations in precipitation. Only an estimated 9,000 to 14,000 km3 per year (8 to 13 per cent of rainfall) can be potentially controlled with technical, social, environmental, and economically feasible water development programmes. At present, about 3,400 km3 (3 per cent) is for various uses, of which, irrigation is the most predominant, accounting for about 70 per cent of the total. Others are for domestic and industrial purposes and are largely non-consumptive in nature. Hydropower, ecosystems, navigation and recreation are also important consumers of water.
2. By 2025, a third of the developing world’s population will face severe water shortages. Even a small country like Sri Lanka can experience acute water scarcity throughout the country due to fluctuating availability and demand (Amarasinghe, Mutuwatta and Sakthivadivel, 1999). Districts such as Galle, contrary to common belief, are confronting worsening shortages. However, in many arid regions, large amounts flow out to the sea annually. Some of this flush salt and other harmful products out of the system and thus assist in maintaining the ecological quality of estuaries and coastal areas. But in many cases, floodwater is not fully utilized and it can do a great deal of harm (Keller, Sakthivadivel and Seckler, 2000). As more and more people live in flood prone areas, they tend to transform these precarious regions into climatic disaster zones. Flood and droughts represent 36 and 3 per cent respectively of estimated damages from major types of natural disasters in the 1990 to1999 decade (IFRC, 2000).
3. There is however a move in water resource management (Gleick, 2000) to efficiently tackle the problems brought about by floods and droughts by adopting fewer structural measures and placing more emphasis on ecological values. Old paradigm infrastructures are beginning to fail and water demand is changing with decreasing use particularly in developed countries. The “new paradigm” can be described as follows:
a) basic human needs must be satisfied, b) basic ecosystem requirements for water must be met, c) use of non-structural alternatives to meet demands must receive higher priority, d) economic principles must be applied more frequently, e) new supply systems, when necessary, must be flexible and efficient, and f) NGOs, individuals, independent research organizations, and all other affected stakeholders must be involved in water management.
4. This rethinking is permeating not only developed but also developing countries where efforts are being made to integrate water use and the maintenance of sound
96 ecological and environmental health. Policies and institutions are undergoing changes to increase the efficiency of water allocation. Integrated watershed management is currently recognized internationally as an important holistic approach to natural resource management, which seeks to promote the concept of sustainable development. Such an approach has been recommended in Agenda 21 for all sectors dealing with the development and management of water resources.
5. Human intervention alters the natural hydrological cycle. Freshwater ecosystem provides food, water purification, storage, recreation, cultural, aesthetic and spiritual needs. Nevertheless, for civilizations to survive, it is imperative that water use is managed efficiently. Attempts to control floods and droughts have not been quite successful and it is important to recognize that extreme weather patterns are natural phenomena that will continue to occur. It is essential to learn to live with them.
6. Watersheds are units of the landscape that contain a complex array of inter-linked and inter-dependent resources and activities that are not determined by political boundaries. Land resources such as soil, water and vegetation cannot be managed in isolation from each other. Their natural balance can be easily disrupted by changes in land use or poor planning. Proper management recognizes the successful preservation and protection of the prevailing environment. The broad objective is to develop policies that promote sustainable use of such resources, taking into consideration the economic, social and environmental issues associated with them.
7. However, in densely populated developing countries, the main organizational bottleneck lies in the extensively subdivided and tremendously diverse use of land by millions of small farmers or tenants, who often cannot look beyond the next harvest. For governments, it is almost impossible to approach them individually. In such a situation, it is sometimes argued that it is better to speak about ‘watershed development’, which not only concerns the physical resources of land and water but, to a large extent, also of human resources.
8. Except for long-term climatic changes, the average annual water supply in a river basin from past and present precipitation is constant. Thus, unless it is technically and economically feasible for trans-basin diversions or desalting of seawater, any population growth and economic activity within it will inevitably increase water scarcity (Seckler, 1996). This problem becomes even more acute when supply and demand vary dramatically for different seasons. In the wet season, when demand is low and supply plentiful, its marginal value is nil, but in the dry season, the situation is reversed.
9. The problem of water management lies in the fact that its sporadic, spatial and temporal distribution rarely coincides with demand. Whether it is for natural processes or human needs, the only way supply can match demand is through storage. A water resource system is “closed” when there is no usable water leaving it (Keller, Keller, and Seckler, 1996). Conversely, it is “open” when the reverse happens. The majority of crucial policy questions in the water resource field depend on the degree of closure of these systems, and on a thorough understanding of their integrated nature. As a
97 river basin begins to close, it becomes increasingly more difficult to save water, and tradeoffs emerge among the different opportunities for water conservation.
10. Many rivers in Asia, including those in the humid tropics are closed, semi-closed or closing rapidly. The Chao Phraya River is now almost closed for all practical purposes; there is very little unallocated water even during the wet season (Molle, 2001). The main rivers in China1 are also closing (Burke, 2000). This is also the case for the basins studied by the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) in South Asia (Molden, Sakthivadivel, and Habib, 2001). Semi-closed basins present major opportunities for adding value to water through storage. Man can create and enhance it by conserving water during tillage, constructing dams and dikes for impoundment, and artificially recharging groundwater. Regardless of the method or type of storage, the purpose is to capture water when and where its marginal value is low or, during floods when it is negative, and reallocate it for use when and where its marginal value is high.
11. Water problems comprise the single most complex constraint to increasing food production and socio-economic development in many parts of Asia and the Pacific, including India, China and Pakistan. Issues related to its distribution, consumption and price would be important challenges for land tenure in the early part of the new millennium (Riddell and Palmer, 1999). Since groundwater plays a particularly major role in achieving high yields, any emerging threats to it have serious food security implications at both local and possibly global levels. In India, irrigated groundwater areas account for approximately 50 per cent of total irrigated land and, according to some estimates, as much as 70 to 80 per cent of total agricultural production is dependent on groundwater. In many arid and semi-arid zones, it is the primary source for meeting both domestic and agricultural needs. In other regions, it assists in overcoming dry spells or periods of drought and supplements surface irrigation, thereby increasing the efficiency, reliability and flexibility of water supply and providing greater security.
12. This introduction gives a brief account of the general problems of water resource management in which flood and drought constitute the core issue. Subsequent sections of this paper will attempt to do the following:
a) describe the nature and types of flood and drought affecting Asia, their occurrence and impact on agriculture and food production, b) examine the implications of climatic change for the future, c) discuss recommendations made to promote sustainable development, food security and the environment,
1 The Report on sector consultation regarding “water in rivers” mentioned that the problem occurs even in receding rivers and associated ecological and quality disasters. The Huanghe or Yellow River did not reach the sea for some days in 1972, and in 1997, it failed to reach the sea for a total of 7 months during the entire year.
98 d) analyse regional experience and trends in drought, flood, river basin and watershed management as contained in technical publications, projects and case studies, e) give a state-of-the art account of alleviation measures, f) discuss the difficulties, complexities, uncertainties and misconceptions encountered, and g) make some recommendations that may assist countries solve some of their water problems.
2. FLOODS AND DROUGHTS
2.1 Floods
13. A flood can be defined as an excessive flow of water over land that is not usually submerged. Inundation brings disastrous consequences and can originate from various sources, including intense and prolonged rainfall, snow melt, blocking of river channels downstream by landslides or avalanches, failure of dams upstream, storm surges, abnormally high tides, and tidal waves. Table 1 describes most types of flood. The serious ones are caused by intense storms originating from tropical cyclones or widespread, prolonged and heavy rainfall from monsoon depressions. This produces inundation that lasts from a few hours to three weeks or more, depending on the catchment area and the nature of the river channel and its floodplain.
14. The following characteristics of floods govern the magnitude and cost of their disastrous effects:
a) peak depth, extent and seasonality which determines the extent of damage to buildings and crops and the feasibility and cost of mitigation measures, b) duration which determines the degree of inconvenience caused, c) rate of occurrence, which determines the effectiveness of early warning and evacuation procedures, d) velocity of flow which determines the feasibility and design of levees and preventive structures, and e) frequency which determines the long-term average costs and benefits of corrective measures.
15. Flood behaviour which involves many variable factors and influences, is an intricate hydrological process that follows the mechanics of run-off. Its complexity increases with the size of the catchment. A small upland watershed may be entirely different from a large river basin of which it is a part. There are various forms of temporary storage through which water must flow as it meanders to the catchment. As the river fills and subsequently empties, these motions delay and attenuate its flow. Floods usually peak some time after the height of a storm and they cause the river to
99 Table 1. Types of Flood2
Agent Details and Examples Rainfall Riverine or non-riverine; Slow-onset or flashflood; Convectional/frontal/orographic; Torrential rainfall floods Snow melt Riverine; Overland flow Ice melt Glacial melt water Flooding during freeze-up Riverine Flooding by ice break-up Riverine (ice-jam floods) Mud floods Floods with high sediment content; Induced by volcanic activity Coastal/sea/tidal floods Storm surges (tropical or temperate induced); Ocean swell floods; Tsunamis (induced by geological processes) Dam Dam-break flood; Dam overtopping; Failure of natural dam Sewer/urban drain flood Storm discharge to sewers and drains excess capacity Water distribution failure Burst water mains; Breaches in canals Rising water tables Land subsidence, rising sea levels, reductions in abstractions (high groundwater tables) from aquifers
swell. The overflow in very small watersheds may be a matter of minutes or at worst a few hours, but in large river basins it may be several weeks and in extreme cases, several months.
16. As the total area drained expands, the effectiveness of upstream flood control measures lessens. This is primarily because the channel system’s storage becomes more important. As the catchment size and its storage capacity grow, it determines the shape of the flood hydrograph. Thus it is possible to classify a “hydrological small” watershed as one so tiny that its sensitivities to short-term variations in rainfall intensity and changes in land use are not suppressed by its channel storage. A “hydrological large” watershed is one in which the latter governs flood behaviour and its sensitivities to rainfall and land use are largely suppressed. In terms of actual area, the upper limit for a “hydrological small” watershed may vary considerably according to the nature of the catchment, but it is probably in the range a few hundred hectares to a hundred or more square kilometers (ESCAP, 1997).
17. Riverine, flash, urban and coastal floods are most widespread in Asia. The first is common and it causes substantial damage. The densely populated floodplains of many countries experience frequent and devastating flooding. The inundation of the large river basins of the Ganges, Mekong and Yangtze is usually seasonal and may last for many weeks. This type of flooding, described as “hydrological large” is also associated with smaller drainage basins of rivers in north China, Japan and the Republic of Korea.
2 Green, Parker and Tunstall, 2000.
100 18. Flash floods are associated primarily with “hydrological small” watersheds and are usually caused by intense, short duration convective storms that produce very high rainfalls. The severity grows when their watersheds are steep and the surface infiltration capacity is low. The flood depth can be considerable and cause extensive damage. Because they occur very rapidly and with little warning, they cause substantial injury and loss of life.
19. Urban flooding can be experienced in watersheds of all sizes. When there is urban development in a catchment, storms can increase the volume and rate of run-off dramatically. This is due mainly to decreased surface infiltration capacity and concentration. Thus urbanization can significantly accelerate peak discharges during frequent storms.
20. In Asia, the most serious form of coastal flooding is from storm and tidal surges or tidal waves (tsunami). Strong winds, heavy rainfall and major flooding usually accompany them. Although their effects are restricted to a relatively narrow strip of coastline, they have the potential to cause widespread loss of life and property, particularly in densely populated coastal regions. Many disasters associated with tropical cyclones are from storm surges. Countries particularly susceptible to them are India (northern sector of the Bay of Bengal) Australia; Bangladesh; China; Hong Kong, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Thailand and the Pacific Island.
2.2 Floods and Agricultural Production
21. Floods can, on the other hand, be an advantage to agricultural areas, as normal ones which occur annually in many arable floodplains provide a vital source of moisture for crop growth, especially in arid, semi-arid and sub-tropical terrain where drought is a major problem and irrigation a necessity. One such form of irrigation is recession planting3 . In Bangladesh, agriculture depends on regular flooding. Alluvial silt is also a source of additional fertility4 . Floods benefit the ecosystem and human livelihood associated with them. However, when they occur in excess, many subsistence farmers lose their crop, productive assets and capital and may have to borrow or lose their land. Availability of low-cost credit and new technology to minimize crop loss must be introduced to assist such farmers.
3 Recession agriculture is practiced between irrigated and rain-fed agriculture. Crops are planted after peak flows on a river or lake and when the soil is fully saturated. Planting schedules fit in with the water line movement and rely on residual water stored in the soil. Recession agriculture also benefits from the natural fertility of sediments deposited by the receding water. This technique does not require any infrastructure or management except the need to allocate the limited foreshore land to cultivators. However, if the normal flood does not occur due to late rains, drought or excessive inundation, large areas cannot be harvested and food shortages and famines may occur. Such agriculture can still be found on the margins of many lakes and rivers in Asia. Its potential for improved food supplies and incomes is largely localized. 4 Crop production potential may be lowered if the deposits are rather infertile and comprise drought prone sandy matter or silt which may initially be saturated.
101 22. The crop loss per hectare, however, is much lower in urban areas and it is thus getting increasingly difficult to justify the provision of flood mitigation (or a high standard of protection) in rural areas. The economic benefits of reducing crop losses can be rather insignificant as agricultural production is heavily subsidized. However, protecting such areas from floods may also be viewed in terms of food security, alleviating poverty, avoiding migration to the cities and other desirable social objectives.
23. From an agricultural viewpoint, water management rather than flooding merits greater attention. Too much or too little water is harmful to plant growth and yield. In temperate regions, drainage may be a larger problem than flooding as crop loss due to water logging may have occurred prior to flooding. In areas protected by a dike, local flooding within it can also destroy the crops planted in it. If the soil’s water level is not regulated, then there is little advantage in attempting to control surface water. The extent of crop loss depends on when the flood occurs in the growing season and its duration. It can also prevent or delay planting of the next crop as well as damage the standing crop. In agricultural areas, it is land drainage rather than flood alleviation that offers the most benefit. Projects for the latter will have little or negative impact in cases where planting is dependent on soil moisture levels and in the absence of any drainage scheme. They may even impede the drainage of the protected area (Greene, et. al. 2000). Floodplains are an important source of grazing land, and livestock farmers may suffer from their conversion to arable land. Any loss of animals will mean that they can no longer be used for draft purposes. Although aquaculture benefits from normal floods, severe ones can destroy it.
2.3 Drought
24. It is defined as serious water shortage and implies some specification for the amount required and the purpose for its use. What constitutes aridity in a certain situation may not be the case in another. Because its nature and severity are dictated by weather conditions, it is difficult to predict its onset, intensity or likely duration. It is a recurring climatic phenomenon that should be distinguished from climatic change, although the latter determines its frequency. The vastness of the Asian continent implies a great variation in its climate, which can range from arid, semi-arid to dry sub-humid, and this makes it difficult to formulate a single strategic approach to drought management. It is thus imperative that an analysis be made regarding the risks associated with droughts in Asia especially their frequency and severity. They fall into the following categories (Mainguet, 1995):
a) meteorological, where rainfall is deficient, b) hydrological, where runoff in rivers and the lake level decrease due to both the rill wash/infiltration ratio and evaporation caused primarily by indirect meteorological droughts, and result from short-term climatic changes that are normal in dry areas, c) edaphic, where the soil infiltration rate and the capacity of seed germination decrease, and
102 d) agricultural,5 where water is deficient for planting. 25. The degree of dryness should be taken into account, namely, long-term, mid to short-term and short to mid-term, as this is often human induced and caused by land degradation. It is often difficult to diagnose the real effects of drought, even where there is general agreement that many environmental changes result more from short-term aridity rather than from long-term ones. It is more a question of whether recurring droughts are annual, biennial or multi-annual phenomena. Besides, it is difficult to differentiate climate-induced short-term environmental changes from land degradation resulting from human activities.
26. Dry lands experience violent changes in biomass (cover density and species diversity) and first-degree land degradation. These can be easily confused with the effects of human actions that cause irreversible desertification. When not aggravated by man, dry lands are resilient in that nature can, over time, restore the environment to its original state. Second-degree degradation refers to alterations made to dry land soil, and they are more difficult to discern and curb.
27. Drought is an intermittent problem experienced by all countries. Major ones occur from time to time in Australia, India and northern China, where considerable impact to the national economy is felt over a long period. Heavy loss of livestock, wildlife and natural vegetation, and human disease, starvation and extensive and permanent land degradation, are the likely outcomes of this type of natural disaster (ESCAP, 1997).
2.4 Food Shortage and Famine
28. Temperature and rainfall are critical elements determining when and how often crops can be sown. For the present, drought is the most dangerous climatic threat to production. But the environmental, socio-cultural, and political/economic causes of food shortage are inter-related. Although inadequate fertilizer or water may place limitations on production, the disruptions to fertilizer supply and irrigation systems are primarily economic in nature. Dry weather rarely leads to food shortage in the absence of armed conflict6.
5 The last two are caused by other than climatic factors. 6 It has been argued that those most exposed to food shortage tend to be located in conflict zones, where food cannot reach them. Weather and hazardous climatic or environmental conditions are less important than politics influencing food production and distribution. The economic, social, and cultural framework (what policy makers increasingly term “the enabling environment”) would be paramount to prevent natural elements from precipitating wider disasters. This opinion stems from the observation that, despite the seemingly arbitrary nature of sudden natural disasters, they do not affect all areas in the same way, even when their severity is of a similar scale. Healthy economies rapidly bounce back from shocks because they have more internal resources dedicated to mitigating the immediate and longer-term impacts on food production or distribution. Similarly, precautions that minimize the impact of disasters, such as earthquake-resistant housing and roads, are not distributed evenly either across or within countries. Some so-called “natural” disasters might be better thought of as man made. Sudden natural disasters cannot be prevented, but the effects that they have on food production and food importation are conditioned more by political and economic processes than by the intensity of the calamity (Mainguet, 1995).
103 29. The connection between drought and famine is therefore not as strong as earlier thought (UNU, 1995). Some of the complex relationships that cause food shortage are best appreciated in locations that undergo prolonged aridity. They demonstrate that this inadequacy is not inevitable in regions that experience even major production shortfalls if they have the capacity to respond adequately. Food security is a function of three factors, namely, (i) availability, (ii) stability, and (iii) the ability of individuals to get access to food. It is now apparent that starvation is due more to the inability to purchase supplies that are readily available in the market and not a matter of availability. Sen’s entitlement approach describes “famines as economic disasters, not just as food crises” (Sen, 1999, quoted in FAO, 2001) It characterized the nature and causes of the entitlement failures where such failures occur. This is similar to the sustainable livelihood approach. The critical role that access to water plays in poverty alleviation has also been highlighted. Reliable water supply is the key to farmers’ access to a wide range of development benefits. They, however, carry some degree of risk as farmers must make investments in fertilizer, seed and other inputs in order to achieve them. Such investments are often made on credit that will be lost when the water supply fails. When, for example, the groundwater level declines drastically, short-term risk exposure, primarily economic in nature, may return to the pre-irrigation era (Burke, 2000). Falling water tables affect the poor long before they have any impact on wealthy farmers and other affluent users. Thus, it is likely to have a major economic impact on farmers with limited land and other resources and would be particularly pronounced during droughts when many small ones could lose access to groundwater as their wells dry up. “Crisis” in such situations would be economic rather than related to food grain availability (FAO, 2001).
2.5 El Niño ENSO Events
30. There is increasing evidence to indicate that El Nino causes regions around the western Pacific Rim to suffer from severe drought. Its normal impact in Asia (Gommes, Bakun, and Farmer, 1998) in terms of increasing or decreasing rainfall is shown in Figures 1 and 2. In India, it is responsible for dryness during the southwest monsoon, and this reduces rice yields. In Thailand, there is similar negative impact on maize and rice. In the Philippines, aridity corresponds with the northeast monsoon season (a secondary season) and it causes poor rice yields. In Indonesia, it coincides with the dry season, which is a minor growing season, but its effects can be exacerbated by human behaviour such as open burning. Short-term drought can become long-term when water is permanently channelled away from agriculture to other uses. The reaction to extreme cases of El Nino must be seen in a broader context of developing strategies to tackle pronounced atmospheric phenomena and water-related disasters (Figure 3). It is hoped that their predictability can be significantly improved in the near future.
104 EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database (http://www.cred.be; email: [email protected]) Figure 1. Distribution of people affected by natural disasters, by country and type of phenomena, in Asia (1975-1999)
EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database (http://www.cred.be; email: [email protected]) Figure 2. Distribution of natural disasters, by country and type of phenomena, in Asia (1975-1999)
105 From Gommes, Bakun and Farmer, 1998 Figure 3. World-wide climatic impacts of warm ENSO events7
2.6 Flood Alleviation Strategies
31. The floodplains of the Asia and Pacific region are of environmental, historical and socio-economic importance. In Bangladesh 80 per cent of the total population is located in flood-prone areas. The implementation of alleviation measures must take into account regional geographical characteristics, the availability of arable land per capita, population density and economic factors (Tables 2 and 3). When farmland is scarce and population high, the potential to decrease the use of floodplains is limited. When the prevailing flood control technology is indigenous, the switch to modern alternatives will be particularly difficult in the short-term. Technology that is successful in some countries may not always be appropriate in others.
32. The following factors determine the implementation of flood control strategies in the People’s Republic of China:
a) very dense population, b) fairly intense economic activity, c) very little arable land per capita, d) landscapes and ecosystems are largely a reflection of past human activity,
7 The upper half corresponds to the northern hemisphere winter and the lower half covers impacts during April to September. D: drought; R: unusually high rainfall; W: abnormally warm periods.
106 Table 28. Arable Land Availability Per Capita in Selected Countries
Arable Land Country Per Capita (ha) Algeria 0.27 Australia 2.68 China 0.10 Germany 0.14 India 0.17 Japan 0.03 Thailand 0.29 USA 0.67 World Ð average 0.24
Table 39. Density of GDP and Population in Selected Countries
Country or State GDP/km2 Population/km2 New Jersey 10,010,810 371 Japan 6,685,702 331 France 1,600,902 104 Bangladesh 152,341 871 China 46,535 120 Australia 33,095 2 Nepal 21,930 143
e) difficulties in enforcing land and building controls imposed by central government, f) floodplains that are settled for more than a thousand years, g) high proportion of flood prone, usable land, h) adoption of a wide mix of strategies, including the earliest known examples of flood warning, over the last two thousand years, and i) preventive measures undertaken by all levels of government but predominantly by the local authority.
33. Another feature specific to Asia is the importance of rice. Floods govern its productivity level and paddy cultivation plays a vital role in the hydrological cycle of river basins, mainly through groundwater recharge, flooding and evapo-transpiration.
8 Greene, Parker and Tunstall, 2000. 9 Greene, Parker and Tunstall, 2000.
107 This is illustrated in Box 1. An assessment of land-water linkages to paddy in a drought or flood prone basin goes beyond the opinion that “rice consumes a lot of water”. Several questions arise, e.g., in hill slope management, the crucial ones center on how proper terrace management can assist in storing water at the right time and thus reduce peak flooding, and the ideal sites to build new terraces to correspond with watershed lag-time to achieve greater efficiency (FAO, 2000).
Box 1: Positive Externalities of Rice Paddy in Japan
According to research by the Mitsubishi Research Institute and others: 1. Flood prevention: total water storage capacity of paddy fields in Japan is estimated at around 4.4 × 109 m3, which is much higher than the total storage capacity of dams constructed for flood control. Peak runoff from paddy field areas is 3 times less than peak runoff from 75 per cent urbanized areas. Several municipalities therefore subsidize paddy production. This subsidy amounts to between 20 and 80 per cent of the gross income from rice production. Total benefit from paddy fields for flood prevention is equivalent to constructing flood control dams worth ´ 1.95 × 1012/year.
2. Groundwater recharge: Groundwater recharge is estimated at 160 ×10 6 m3 per day in all Japan. This supports pumping for domestic and industrial use. Benefit of groundwater recharge based on the construction of the equivalent reservoirs is estimated at ´800 ×10 9/ year. 3. Soil erosion control: 40 per cent of paddy fields are on terraced slopes. Total benefit derived from the construction of soil sedimentation dams is estimated at about ´40 ×10 9/year. 4. Preservation of landscape and biodiversity: willingness to pay in Nara Prefecture for the preservation of paddy fields is estimated at about twice the value of gross production of paddy rice. Willingness to pay for the paddy fields in mountainous areas was 74 and 91 per cent higher than those in flat areas and suburbs, respectively.
Quoted in H. Tsutsui, Multiple Functions and Diversified Use of Paddy Fields in Japan, Proceedings of the Asian Regional Workshop on Sustainable Development of Irrigation and Drainage for Rice Paddy Fields, Tokyo, 24-28 July, Japanese National Committee of ICID.
108 2.7 Floods, Droughts and Climate Change10
34. Preliminary studies show that although some human systems are affected by recent increases in floods and droughts, it is difficult to quantify their relative impacts. Climatic change (global warming) is now accepted as being responsible for bringing additional risks and pressures on water resources. Increasing sea level and other extreme weather conditions damage existing infrastructure. The former is expected to rise by 15 to 95 cm by 2100 and thus extend flooding in low-lying areas. This could result in a loss of 17.5 per cent of the land area in Bangladesh. Coastal fishing and ecosystems, aquaculture and agriculture11 would suffer. Small islands would be particularly affected. Ecosystems and agricultural zones could shift towards the poles by 150 to 550 km in the mid-latitude regions. Forests, deserts, rangelands, and other natural habitats would undergo new climatic stress. Both man and nature would need to adapt to such a scenario. Total precipitation would most likely intensify, although the local level remains uncertain. The frequency and intensity of extreme weather conditions such as storms and hurricanes may change. The most vulnerable would be those who are most sensitive to them, already under stress and with the least ability to adapt. This would be the case in developing countries with weaker economies and institutions.
35. While some regions suffer from climatic extremes, others may benefit. Added heat stress, shifting monsoons and drier soil in the tropic and sub-tropic can be expected. Soil moisture is affected by changing rainfall patterns. Higher temperatures, especially if combined with water shortage may damage some crops. Arid and semi-arid conditions may become more pronounced. Rangelands may have to alter their growing seasons. Changes in the evapo-transpiration cycle in the tropics may affect productivity and the mix of species. Soil stability and hydrological systems in mountainous terrain may be affected. Climatic change also contributes to the decline of wetlands.
36. Evaporation and intense rainfall frequency would rise. Changing precipitation patterns would determine how much water could be captured and rising intensity would mean increasing floods and runoff, with possible alterations in the distribution of surface and groundwater. Reservoirs and wells would be affected. Surface changes would affect the recharging of groundwater supplies and, in the longer term, aquifers. New patterns of runoff and evaporation would also have an impact on natural ecosystems. The local hydrology becomes more sensitive as the weather gets drier. High-latitude regions may see more runoff due to greater precipitation. The effects on the tropics would be more difficult to predict. However, there is now greater confidence
10 Information in this section is quoted from the following documents of the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) and especially from theInter -Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): Climate Change Information Sheets, July 1999; IPCC Working Group I, Third Assessment Report: Summary for Policymakers, January 2001; IPCC Working Group II, Third Assessment Report. Draft. February 2001; IPCC Working Group III, Final Draft Summary for Policymakers, Climate Change 2001, Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, February 2; The Regional Impacts of Climate Change, 2000. 11 Coastal aquifers may also be damaged as salty groundwater rises.
109 Table 4. Changes in Phenomenon Induced by Climatic Change and Degree of Confidence
Confidence in Observed Confidence in Projected Changes (latter half of the Changes in Phenomenon Changes (during the 20th century) 21st century) Likely Higher max. temperature and Very likely more hot days over nearly all land areas Very likely Higher min. temperatures, Very likely fewer cold and frost days over nearly all land areas Very likely Reduced diurnal temperature Very likely range over most land areas Likely, over many northern More intense precipitation Very likely, over many areas hemisphere mid-to high latitude land areas Likely, in a few areas Increase in continental Likely, over most mid- summer dryness and latitude continental interiors associated risk of drought Not observed in the few Increase in tropical cyclone Likely, over some areas analyses available peak intensities Insufficient data for Increase in tropical cyclone Likely, over some areas assessment mean and peak precipitation intensities in the following assertions regarding changes that are currently being observed, and predictions for the future in Asia and the Pacific (Table 4):
a) floods, droughts, forest fires, and tropical cyclones have increased temperature in tropical Asia (high confidence), b) decreasing agricultural productivity and aquaculture due to thermal and water stress, rising sea level, floods and other natural disasters would diminish food security in many countries (medium confidence), c) runoff and water availability may decrease in arid and semi-arid Asia but increase in northern Asia (medium confidence), d) rising sea level and intensity of tropical cyclones and rainfall would displace millions of people in low-lying coastal areas and accelerate flood risks (high confidence), and e) likely increase in Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability.
37. In the twentieth century, although tropical storm intensity and frequency are dominated by inter-decadal and multi-decadal variations, no significant trends were recorded. Little or small changes are expected from El Niño in the next century.
110 Despite this, global warming is likely to lead to more pronounced dry and wet weather and the number of droughts and floods would grow in many different regions of Asia.
38. For temperate Asia, projections suggest that rainfall would increase slightly (0.5-1.0 mm/day) in the north (Siberia), and by more than 1 mm/day over the Korean peninsula, Japanese islands, and southwest China. In contrast, precipitation may decline in the northern, western, and southern parts of China. Hydrological forecasts indicate that northern China would be most vulnerable to climatic changes. During years of moderate to extremely dry weather, water deficiency may seriously aggravate any existing shortages.
39. For tropical Asia, climatic change further stresses natural resources which are already over exploited by rapid urbanization, industrialization, and economic development. This leads to increasing pollution, land degradation and other environmental problems. Substantial shifts in the ecosystems of upland tropical Asia are projected. Similarly, increases in evapo-transpiration and rainfall variability would have a negative impact on the viability of freshwater wetlands. Rising sea level and sea-surface temperature would be the most probable major climatic change for coastal ecosystems. Landward migration of mangroves and tidal wetlands would destroy infrastructure and the livelihoods of many rural households. Increasing temperature and seasonal variability in precipitation would accelerate the recession of the Himalayan glaciers and increase the danger of glacial outbursts. A reduction in the flow of snow-fed rivers, accompanied by growing peak flow and sediment, would have a major impact on hydropower generation, urban water supply and agriculture. Water availability from such rivers could increase in the short term but would lessen in the long-term. Runoff from them may alter in the future, although less water from melting snow would result in a decrease in their dry-season flow. Pressure would be most acute on drier river basins and those subjected to low seasonal flows. Hydrological changes in island and coastal drainage basins are expected to be small, apart from those associated with rising sea levels. The vulnerability of arable lands to environmental hazards, including floods, droughts and cyclones would increase. The large delta regions of Bangladesh, Myanmar, Vietnam, and Thailand, and the low-lying areas of Indonesia, the Philippines, and Malaysia would be especially threatened.
40. Communities and regions that are exposed to climatic changes are also under pressure from population growth, resource depletion, and poverty. Alleviation policies and improved management of environmental risk could help promote sustainable development and equity, enhance adaptive capacity, and reduce any vulnerability to natural calamities. Thus preparedness and planning are urgently needed with or without climatic change. Better information, stronger institutions and new technologies could minimize human and material losses. For example, buildings could be erected in such a way that damage from flood and tropical cyclone could be minimized, sophisticated irrigation systems constructed to protect farmers and their crops from drought, levees removed to help maintain floodplains, and measures instituted to protect waterside vegetation, restore river channels to their natural form, and reduce water pollution.
111 3. RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT FOR FLOOD AND DROUGHT PREVENTION AND MITIGATION
3.1 Agenda 21
41. The river basin (catchment or watershed) is widely accepted internationally as the natural unit for water resource management in general, and for flood and drought-related strategies and activities in particular. This is recognized by the UNCED Conference (Rio de Janeiro, 1992) in its Agenda 21, which states “integrated water resources management, including the integration of land and water-related aspects, should be carried out at the level of the catchment basin or sub-basin.” The following quotes are from relevant chapters of this agenda.
1) Chapter 10 on Integrated Approach to the Planning and Management of Land Resources upholds that “Governments at the appropriate level, with the support of regional and international organizations, should review and, if appropriate, revise planning and management systems to facilitate an integrated approach. To do this, they should adopt planning and management systems that facilitate the integration of environmental components such as air, water, land and other natural resources, using landscape ecological planning (LANDEP) or other approaches that focus on, for example, an ecosystem or a watershed”. 2) Chapter 12 on Managing Fragile Ecosystems: Combating Desertification and Drought calls for an integrated approach to the planning and management of land resources12 . Action plans to combat desertification and drought should include management aspects of the environment and development, thus conforming to the approach of integrating national development plans and national environmental action plans, encouraging and promoting popular participation”. (The recommended unit of intervention in Chapter 12 is not clearly stated. Grass-roots action and participation may imply that the unit may comprise a geographical area managed by a community). 3) Chapter 14 on Promoting Sustainable Agriculture and Rural Development encourages “integrated planning at the watershed and landscape level to
12 Main activities envisaged are: a) combat land degradation through intensified soil conservation, afforestation and reforestation, b) develop and strengthen integrated development programmes to eradicate poverty and promote alternative livelihood systems in areas prone to desertification, c) develop comprehensive anti-desertification programmes and integrate them into national development plans and environmental planning, d) develop comprehensive drought preparedness and relief schemes, including self-help arrangements to cope with environmental refugees, and e) promote popular participation and environmental education, with focus on desertification control and management.
112 reduce soil loss and protect surface and groundwater resources from chemical pollution”. 4) Chapter 18 on Protection of the Quality and Supply of Freshwater Resources: Application of Integrated Approaches to the Development, Management and Use of Water Resources states that “the freshwater environment is characterized by the hydrological cycle, including floods and droughts, which in some regions have become more extreme and dramatic in their consequences Rational water utilization schemes for the development of surface and underground water-supply sources and other potential sources have to be supported by concurrent water conservation and wastage minimization measures. Priority, however, must be accorded to flood prevention and control measures, as well as sedimentation control where required. The holistic management of freshwater as a finite and vulnerable resource, and the integration of sectoral water plans and programmes within the framework of national economic and social policy, are of paramount importance. Integrated water resource management is based on the perception of water as an integral part of the ecosystem, a natural resource and a social and economic good, whose quantity and quality determine the nature of its utilization. Integrated water resource management, including the integration of land and water-related aspects, should be carried out at the level of the catchment basin or sub-basin.”
42. Flood and drought management, including risk analysis and environmental and social impact assessment, are priority programme areas of Agenda 21. They include:
a) establishing and strengthening institutional capabilities of countries and their legislative and regulatory arms to ensure adequate assessment of water resources, b) providing flood and drought forecasting services, c) reviewing and evaluating existing data-collection networks, including those providing real-time information on flood and drought forecasting, and d) improving data dissemination to provide forecast and warning of flood and drought to the general public and civil defence.
43. The approach prescribed in this chapter is primarily (infra-) structural, i.e., the “development and implementation of response strategies require innovative use of technological means and engineering solutions, including the installation of flood and drought warning systems and the construction of new water resource development projects such as dams, aqueducts, well fields, waste-water treatment plants, desalination works, levees, banks and drainage channels.”
113 3.2 UNCCD
44. The United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) in countries experiencing serious drought and/or desertification, particularly in Africa is the main instrument for international and regional cooperation on drought-related issues13. National action programmes may include some or all of the following measures to prepare for and mitigate the effects of drought14 :
a) establish and/or strengthen appropriate early warning systems at either local, national or joint levels, and take steps to assist environmentally displaced persons, b) strengthen drought preparedness and management, including contingency plans at all levels that take into consideration seasonal to periodic climate predictions, c) establish and/or strengthen appropriate food security systems, including storage and marketing facilities, particularly in rural areas, d) establish alternative livelihood projects that provide income in drought prone areas, and e) develop sustainable irrigation programmes for both crops and livestock.
45. Annex II on Regional Implementation Annex for Asia states that national action programmes shall “be an integral part of broader national policies for sustainable development of the affected country; involve affected populations, including local communities, in the elaboration, coordination and implementation of their action programmes through a locally driven consultative process, with the cooperation of local authorities and relevant national and non-governmental organizations; and, promote the integrated management of drainage basins, the conservation of soil resources, and the enhancement and efficient use of water resources; emphasize integrated local development programmes for affected areas, based on participatory mechanisms and on the integration of strategies for poverty eradication into efforts to combat desertification and mitigate the effects of drought.”
46. Most countries exposed to desertification are currently preparing their national action plans and making efforts to develop regional cooperation within the framework
13 UNCCD proposes the following definitions: “drought” means the naturally occurring phenomenon that exists when precipitation has been significantly below normal recorded levels, causing serious hydrological imbalances that adversely affect land resource production systems; “mitigating the effects of drought” means activities related to the prediction of drought, and intended to reduce the vulnerability of society and natural systems to drought as it relates to combating desertification. 14 Priority fields identified for action are: promotion of alternative livelihoods and improvement of national economic environments with a view to strengthening programmes aimed at the eradication of poverty and at ensuring food security; demographic dynamics; sustainable management of natural resources; sustainable agricultural practices; development and efficient use of various energy sources; institutional and legal frameworks; strengthening of capabilities for assessment and systematic observation, including hydrological and meteorological services, and capacity building, education and public awareness.
114 of this convention (see Box 2). These plans follow the cardinal principles mentioned above and they have, in fact, prompted some countries to review, through a participatory process, their socio-economic policies and integrate their drought-related strategies.
47. The India report15 illustrates the gradual shift from top-down structural strategies adopted by government agencies for rural development to an integrated and coordinated approach in the area of watershed management and recovery and relief programmes to improve the resilience of communities to future calamities.
Box 2: UNCDD Proposals for Regional Cooperation in Drought Mitigation
The Convention to Combat Desertification in Asia (UNCCD, 2001) recommends that the plan:
a) strengthen the knowledge base and develop information and monitoring systems for regions prone to desertification and drought, including the economic and social aspects of these ecosystems, b) support countries through policy research and technical assistance in their efforts to combat land degradation through intensified soil conservation, afforestation and reforestation, c) enhance capabilities of institutions of affected countries to develop integrated programmes to eradicate poverty and promote alternative livelihood systems, d) enhance governments’ capacities with sectoral representation from major groups to develop comprehensive anti-desertification programmes and integrate them into national development plans and environmental planning, e) assist countries develop comprehensive drought preparedness and drought-relief schemes, including self-help arrangements, and formulate programmes to cope with environmental refugees, and f) encourage and promote popular participation and environmental education, with focus on desertification control and management of the effects of drought. Specific projects for regional technical cooperation would include agroforestry and soil conservation, water resource management and development of early warning systems and medium-range forecasting methodologies to improve security in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas.
15 Government of India. Ministry of Environment and Forestry. 2000. National Report on Implementation of United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification. New Delhi.
115 Sector-based and component policies are gradually being harmonized. Reliance on indigenous technologies and traditional knowledge and practices to cope with drought is emphasized.
3.3 World Food Summit
48. More recently, the Rome Declaration on World Food Security and World Food Summit Plan of Action adopted at the World Food Summit called by FAO in 1996 included commitments by member countries to:
a) combat environmental threats to food security, in particular, drought and desertification, pests, erosion of biological diversity, and degradation of land and aquatic-based natural resources, restore and rehabilitate the natural resource base, including water and watersheds in depleted and overexploited areas to achieve greater production; b) monitor and promote rehabilitation and conservation of natural resources in food producing areas as well as in adjacent forest lands, non-arable lands and watersheds, and where necessary, upgrade in a sustainable manner, the productive capacity of these resources; and establish policies that create economic and social incentives to reduce degradation; c) identify the potential and improve the productive use of national land and water resources for sustainable increases in food production, taking into account the anticipated impacts of climatic variability and change on rainfall and temperature patterns; d) develop appropriate national and regional policies and plans for water and watersheds, and water management; promote economically, socially and environmentally sound irrigation systems, in particular, small-scale irrigation, and intensify sustainable rain-fed agriculture to increase cropping, reduce the impact of droughts and floods on food output, restore natural resources and preserve the quality and availability of water for other purposes, especially human consumption; e) establish soonest possible prevention and preparedness strategies for countries vulnerable to emergencies. f) prepare and/or maintain for each LIFDC, and other countries exposed to natural calamities, information database, with an analysis of the major causes of vulnerability and their consequences, making maximum use of existing data and information systems to avoid duplication of effort; g) establish, maintain and promote, soonest possible, in collaboration with non-governmental and other organizations, where appropriate, preparedness strategies and mechanisms agreed upon at the ICN, including the development and application of climatic forecast information for surveillance and early-warning of natural disasters, pest and disease;
116 h) support international efforts to develop and apply such information technology to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of emergency preparedness and response activities, create synergy and avoid duplication; i) develop such technology at appropriate community-based and regional levels; and j) pursue participatory and sustainable food, agricultural, fisheries, forestry and rural development policies and practices in potential areas, to ensure adequate and reliable food supplies from the household to global levels, and combat pests, drought and desertification.
3.4 Reducing Agricultural Vulnerability to Storm-Related Disasters
49. In a recent document prepared for the Sixteenth Session of the Committee on Agriculture, (held in Rome in March 2001), FAO developed strategies to reduce agricultural vulnerability to storm-related disasters. Floods caused by storms are (partially) covered by this document, which recognizes that, in Asia, severe ones recur during the monsoon and rainy seasons, often with disastrous consequences. Storm surge is the major cause of crop loss and in India, it accounts for more than 90 per cent of loss to life and property.
50. Factors that determine storms and floods are the water level, topography, soil types, their moisture, depth, holding and drainage capacity, land use and farming practices that influence their organic matter content and permeability. Improvements such as levelling, terracing and irrigation are other practices used to manage water flow and hold soil in place during storms and floods. Deep rooting plant such as shrub and trees can also be grown to provide more stability.
51. This paper highlights the need for a strategy to reduce agricultural vulnerability to tropical storms as the economic cost of crop and infrastructure loss may represent a substantial dent on the GDP of affected countries. This calls for a framework to intimately link disaster management schemes with long-term development programmes to prevent their retardation, loss of productive investments, protect the standard of living of affected communities, and whenever necessary, divert resources from such programmes to rehabilitate disaster-affected communities. The objectives are to avoid or minimize the risk of death, injury and suffering to people, prevent the poor from getting poorer, reduce unforeseen large-scale relief and rehabilitation expenditures, minimize disruption of the development process and ensure its sustainability with effective poverty eradication programmes by lessening the vulnerability of communities to storm disasters. Such a strategy should include long-term measures, properly integrated overall development programmes for storm and flood-prone areas and for the country as a whole, early warning and storm forecasting systems and a preparedness and rehabilitation plan in the event of such disasters, linked, where possible, to the long-term programmes. To reduce vulnerability to floods and tidal waves, land-use, agricultural, forestry and fisheries planning could incorporate more resistant crops, diversify cropping systems that offer insurance against loss, establish forestry
117 shelterbelts and tree and grass species to stabilize slopes, maintain mangrove swamps as buffer zones, conserve soil and water, and construct drainage works, windbreaks small-scale embankments, dams and canals to protect roads, settlements and arable and grazing land.
52. Intervention should be integrated and consistent at all levels, from the farm to the central government. It is necessary to involve farmers and incorporate local technology. FAO’s approach to disaster management is based on two overriding principles. One is to make communities resilient to the effects of all kinds of hazards, to reduce the compound risks they pose to modern society, and the other is to move from protection to the management of dangers by incorporating preventive measures into sustainable development. Risk assessment studies could characterize the nature of storm-related risks in vulnerable zones, and identify the steps that could be taken to mitigate them, including improved watershed management and appropriate land use.
3.5 World Commission on Dams
53. This Commission, in its final document,16 examined the role of dams in flood management and noted that the growing concern over their cost has led to support for the integrated management of floods rather than their control.17 Large dams have, however, been very effective in the case of Japan. It is difficult to fully control floods and manage their relationship with people. Therefore, it has become necessary to shift the emphasis to integrated flood management, i.e., to set objectives in term of predicting, managing and responding to them, rather than simply controlling them.
54. Such management is essentially catchment-based, where the scale of flooding would be reduced by a number of structural and non-structural methods. The former includes building infiltration and retention ponds and trenches, detention basins, and wetland areas to reduce runoff; protecting forests by reducing logging and clearing, scaling down agriculture to minimize soil erosion, landslides and channel silting; improving small-scale storage of runoff; increasing people’s coping capacities; integrating catchment and coastal zone management; instituting wise planning and zoning of floodplains and coastal areas; allowing local communities to make choices on land development and flood alleviation; and reducing the impact of humans on the environment by promoting flood disaster resilience. The latter includes preserving the best local technology and improving local capacity to respond; and addressing the problems of equity by, for example, alleviating poverty and lack of access to resources as a means of addressing flood vulnerability.
16 Dams and Development: A New Framework for Decision-Making, November 2000. 17 Dams have encouraged settlement in flood prone areas. The cost of ensuring complete protection against all floods is exceptionally high. The effectiveness of structural measures is reduced over time due to the accumulation of sediment in riverbeds and reservoirs. Floods have many beneficial uses in different river basins and the elimination or reduction of natural flooding has led to the loss of important downstream ecosystem functions, as well as the livelihood for flood-dependent communities.
118 55. The key conditions to developing and sustaining such management strategies lie in promoting public involvement, flood hazard management and emergency response agencies and devolving decision-making to the lowest level; giving a multi-functional approach to intervention funding, practicing institutional design; and encouraging local ownership of flood alleviation strategies and options for long-term success. The World Commission on Dams has given an excellent review on flood management options.18
3.6 ESCAP
56. The Economic and Social Commission of the United Nations (ESCAP) established a bureau for flood control in 1949 (currently the Water and Mineral Resources Section). Flood management is a priority area of work for ESCAP, as seen from the number of technical projects and publications on it. Recent ones provide valuable insights and guidelines on the evolution of concepts and their implementation in the region19.
57. The guidelines also deal with the institutional, legal, public, human and natural aspects of water management, and the prime responsibility of the government to safeguard policies that support them. They recommend that national, state and/or regional policies should be developed for each major category of natural resource, i.e., land-use, soil, vegetation, surface water, groundwater and vegetation-management and they should be integrated.
58. ESCAP (1999) maintained that flood management of Asia’s river basins should be made part and parcel of national development objectives. In fact, they have in recent times, become a foundation for socio-economic development, e.g., Australia’s upper Parramatta river catchment, Malaysia’s Klang river basin, Indonesia’s Brantas and Citarum river basins, Republic of Korea’s Keum river basin and Japan’s Tone-Edo river basin, etc. Flood control can also be considered as the social component of national economic development, especially where its cost is too high compared to annual government budgets or allocations for public sector investment. According priority to reducing disasters is a difficult task in the context of the national development process. This is the case for Bangladesh. Its 1995 water and flood management strategy illustrates how government policy evolved gradually over the last 30 years from a narrow focus on flood control to a wider context of flood and water management in the context of overall national goals. This strategy reflects the embodiment of cross-sectoral issues, environmental concerns and public opinion.
18 Green, C.H., Parker, D.G. and Tunstall, S.M. 2000. World Commission on Dams, Thematic Reviews Option Assessment: IV, Assessment of Flood Control and Management Options. Available at www.dams.org. 19 Manual and Guidelines for Comprehensive Flood Loss Prevention and Management, 1991. Guidelines and Manual on Land-Use Planning and Practices in Watershed Management and Disaster Reduction, 1997, and Regional Cooperation in the Twenty-First Century on Flood Control and Management in Asia and the Pacific, 1999.
119 59. Emerging flood control management trends in the region focus on comprehensive basin management, accelerated by the shrinking of many urban catchments where land use on their upper areas can exert a major influence on floods. Control measures imposed on one part of a basin can have a significant impact on the other, thus making its spatial aspects much more important. Such trends also emphasize more effective storm-water management in urban areas based on a participatory and integrated approach, efficient river administration to balance the safety level between different areas, effective enforcement of land-use regulations, cooperation between upstream and downstream areas, reconciling technical requirements for flood protection and environmental enhancement, and implementing the best methods for flood diversion channels especially during the dry season. The overall assessment of achievements in the region is that although floods remain common, frequent and severe, national authorities have established various structural and non-structural measures, including land-use guidelines and zoning, disaster-prone and risk mapping and warning systems to overcome them.
60. ESCAP noted a marked increase in awareness of the importance of disaster preparedness and in government commitments to reduce disasters in a number of countries, where infrastructure to ensure the effective mobilization of resources and sustained public participation in national efforts have been created, and national coordination committees, management systems, programmes and action plans have been established. The future of flood management is geared towards strategic control underpinned by long-term visions and objectives to be shared by all stakeholders.
3.7 FAO-ESCAP Project
61. The Vision for Food and Rural Development, prepared under the aegis of the World Water Council and presented at the Second World Water Forum (Hague, 2000), called for more investment in integrated water resources management to benefit the living environment, production base and people’s livelihood, with the active participation of rural communities within the catchment unit. The vision underlined the potential for alleviating poor communities by helping them manage water stress. Farmers around the world have developed systems to ‘harvest’ rainfall but there is great scope to improve them by on-farm water management, such as the adoption of both ‘low-tech’ (traditional) and ‘high-tech’ (modern) measures such as drip irrigation. This is also the case in semi-arid areas, where additional institutional steps could be taken to help poor farmers survive droughts, and recover from them. Crop insurance, employment and other assistance schemes are options that help recover productive assets lost during a drought. In wetter areas, focus on integrated environmental management together with flood control, drainage, soil and water conservation and afforestation can assist all farmers produce more and withstand natural disasters better.
62. The Vision also indicated that water for food production competes with other uses. The higher its usage and scarcity, the more urgent the need to integrate its management. An organization is required to allocate its use, optimise its productivity
120 and reduce competition between the various consumers and stakeholders. This would need the establishment or amendment of rules on usage, quantity and quality standards and involve co-ordination, planning decision-making, policing and control of both surface and sub-surface water pollution. This body should be under the government, have legal powers in order to protect the interest of the majority and be able to function at the sub-basin level. It should also have a clear regulatory framework with norms and standards for decision-making, a system to provide reliable information, be effective and transparent, with powers to control and sanction violations and adequate capable personnel to meet the desired goals. The Vision also called for the creation of new rural institutions for water management and poverty alleviation, such as groundwater marketing groups20 or new catchment organizations21.
63. A global Vision was also formulated based on sectors, general consultations and regional, sub-regional and national visions developed under the aegis of the technical advisory committees of the Global Water Partnership. They are important for future planning, as they reflect the consensus achieved by authorities, professionals and NGOs. This consensus is particularly firm on the principles of river basin management to contain floods and droughts. The regional and national visions take into account the findings of studies made at the global level, for instance on technology, bio-technology, new plant varieties and drought, salt- and flood-resistant crops.
3.7.1 Vision for South-East Asia22
64. Here, the aim is to sustain water resources to ensure adequate quantity and acceptable quality to meet the needs of the country in terms of health, food security, economic prosperity and the environment. It embodies access to safe and affordable supplies for hygienic and sanitation purposes, and is meant to motivate all regional economies to protect their valuable resource. To achieve this, there is a need to move towards integrated river basin management and promote equitable sharing among users and the environment. The former is regarded as the ideal venue to attain such equitability as all types of users operate within the same arena. In addition to this role, the management should lead in mitigating water-related hazards and erosion, and maintain a certain degree of ecological balance. The development of a well-informed and motivated population who understands the complex nature of water resources management is important. Thus, for the present, the central goal is to focus on
20 Irrigation systems can be developed and managed by the land poor if they are given opportunities to become water sellers. Competitive water markets that give choices to water buyers can help the poor, but this requires flexible legal arrangements that allow companies to amend their activities to help the growth of new water supply services. The long-term prognosis for competitive and affordable groundwater markets that help the poor faces uncertainty, unless public action can regulate groundwater use and energy supply in ways that complement sustainable use and equitable access. 21 In many countries, catchment-level councils are being established to negotiate water rights and responsibilities across competing sectors within the hydrographic unit of the catchment. 22 Southeast Asia Technical Advisory Committee of the Global Water Partnership, Second World Water Forum. 2000. Vision to Action Report, South Asia. Hague.
121 people’s participation, with special attention on the poor, women and children who are most affected by water shortage, pollution and floods.
3.7.2 Vision for South Asia23
65. The Vision in this region is to alleviate poverty and raise living standards, health and well-being of the entire population to sustainable levels through coordinated and integrated development and management of water resources. When achieved, it would have fostered a gender balanced social, economic, environmental and cultural life. A basin-oriented management approach including a regional body to co-operate on water resources planning and management is envisaged. At the national level, basin and irrigation organizations should be multi-disciplinary in character and focus on integrated water and land resources management where all stakeholders; local, national and regional, can participate with transparency and accountability. Women should be allowed to play a key role.
66. The Vision points out the lack of consensus between the pro-dam and anti-dam forces, although it argues that dams can be beneficial for hydro-power, irrigation, flood control, navigation and low-flow augmentation purposes in the dry season. They improve water quality by pushing saline intrusion downstream. The Vision supports the use of indigenous knowledge and traditional water harnessing technologies in management, but they should not be pitted as alternatives to large storage. It recognizes the river basin as a unit for resource planning, ecosystem and environmental sustenance, watershed conservation, and quality management of surface and groundwater. Flood protection should be dealt with at a regional level in cases where rivers flow across national boundaries, ecosystem24 and environmental demands met through allocation, and institutions created for planning and management purposes. It stresses population growth, poverty eradication, food storage and environmental concerns as key issues in management planning.25
3.8 FAO-ESCAP Pilot Project26
67. This project, initiated in 2000 is aimed at complementing global and regional visions by assisting four countries in South-East Asia, namely, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Vietnam adopt their national visions and develop priority areas through
23 Southeast Asia Technical Advisory Committee of the Global Water Partnership, Second World Water Forum. 2000. Vision to Action Report, South Asia. Hague. 24 Allocation of water to meet the needs of ecosystems, watershed development, afforestation; protection for aquatic resources and mangroves, etc. 25 Even so, not every country is expected to be self-sufficient, although it is hoped that the region as a whole could remain self-sufficient. Pakistan expects a shortfall of 28 million tons in production of all major food grains and crops by 2025. 26 Le Huu Ti and Facon, T. 2001. The FAO-ESCAP Pilot Project on National Water Visions: Synthesis of Experiences in South-East Asia, FAO-RAP.
122 strategic planning techniques. This will form the basis for developing wider regional cooperation on water resources management. Water-related disaster mitigation is a major issue for the present and the future. Country versions are given below.
3.8.1 Thailand
68. The National Water Resources Committee in its 20 July 2000 meeting endorsed Thailand’s Vision. The recommended policies are as follows:
a) create water management organizations at both national and river basin levels with supportive laws, with the former responsible for formulating national policies, monitoring and coordinating activities to achieve the set policies, while the latter prepares participatory management plans; b) emphasize suitable and equitable water allocation for all sectors to achieve basic agriculture and domestic requirements by establishing efficient and sustainable individual basin priorities under clear allocation criteria and incorporating cost sharing based on ability to pay and level of service; c) identify clearly the role of non-government and government organizations in efficient management that covers utilization, source conservation and monitoring of quality; and d) accelerate preparation of plans for flood and drought protection, damage control and rehabilitation efficiently, with proper utilization of land and other natural resources.
3.8.2 Philippines
69. In the case of the Philippines, the Vision for the 21st century (Plan 21) is to create a modern and humane society, raise the quality of life of all Filipinos and bequeath the society in an ecologically healthy state to future generations. This embodies sustainable water resources management to provide affordable and adequate needs and proper disposal. The statement for the water sector reads as follows: “By the year 2025, water resources in the Philippines are being used efficiently, allocated equitably and managed sustainably with provision for water-related disasters”.
70. The major components of water management are presently vested in several government agencies (over 30 of them) that undertake most of the water projects in the country. Each of them is, by tradition, responsible for certain aspects of water resource development. They are separate agencies dealing mainly with individual sectors such as supply, irrigation, hydropower, flood control, pollution, watershed management, etc. Each undertakes programmes exclusively within its own field of responsibility. Project identification and planning are performed to meet the targets of the agency with little or no regard for the needs of others.
123 71. The Vision’s first priority is to integrate river basin management and increase the number of authorities from 2 to 18 by the year 2025. It also envisages a legal and institutional framework for capacity building and establishing strategic and operational plans to ensure a sustainable environment, and socially equitable and economically efficient water allocation among stakeholders. It seeks alternatives to alleviate water conflicts, maximize its productivity, mitigate any adverse environmental impact and water-related hazards, maintain ecological balance and rehabilitate rivers.
72. One of the major components of its action programme is to control flooding to tolerable levels in Metro Manila and other major cities, provide adequate drainage facilities in all flood-prone areas, and coordinate the development of irrigation schemes
Box 3: Agno River Basin Development Commission
The Agno River Basin Development Commission is mandated to oversee and coordinate all development along this river and to ensure a holistic approach towards its water resources planning and management. Its functions are to: a) develop a comprehensive master plan for the river basin, b) integrate this plan with local and regional plans and investment programmes, c) implement development projects related to the basin, d) initiate, receive and recommend project proposals for the basin’s development, e) formulate, review and propose improvements in existing policies governing the basin’s development, f) commission, coordinate, monitor all planning studies and research and development in the basin; g) coordinate preventive measures and other projects among concerned government agencies, h) establish a functional information and database system including computer generated planning tools such as GIS. The programmes/projects/activities of the Commission are as follows: a) formulation of the Agno Rriver basin master plan, b) coordination and implementation of development programmes and projects, c) project monitoring and evaluation, d) development of studies for planning and decision making, e) information and database management for planning and policy decision making, f) social marketing, g) resource generation and investment programming and marketing, and h) institutional and staff development.
124 and water impounding dams to lessen flood damage and increase the production of rice and other crops. It views the cooperation with relevant government agencies as necessary to comprehensively plan for river basin management whose responsibility includes erecting control structures, practicing reforestation, relocating and preventing squatters from living along river banks, controlling lahar, dredging and silting, establishing and maintaining viable and effective garbage collection and disposal systems for areas that use rivers/waterways for drainage, and organize brigades and campaigns on disaster preparation.
3.8.3 Vietnam
73. The Red River delta had an old and vulnerable system of earth dikes that were breached by severe floods in 1945, causing deep inundation of more than 260,000 ha of paddy field. This, together with the war brought extensive damage to crops and resulted in widespread and serious famine that claimed more than 2 million lives. Since then, the government has consistently spent much of its capital resources and mobilized the people to recover from the terrible loss by restoring water control structures and strengthening flood protection dikes. This priority has been maintained in its various 5-year national plans. The Mekong River delta has several navigation channels excavated during the same period for the transport of goods, while crop cultivation relied totally on rainwater in the absence of water control structures. In the central region, highlands and mountainous areas, droughts are a regular occurrence.
74. In spite of massive efforts made to contain natural disasters, flooding in the Red River in 1995 continued to threaten sustainable development of its delta, with dire consequences on agricultural production and the whole economy. A need still exists to invest in infrastructure development, to combine water resources protection plans of the Red River delta with those of the Lo Gam and Da rivers, and to practice proper reforestation and forest protection.
75. Ecological changes and water use at the source complicates the Mekong’s flow during the dry and rainy seasons. While the influx of saltwater is widening, that of freshwater is narrowing, at a time when the demand for water in the dry season is increasing. Therefore, the urgent task is to build dykes, drains, etc. to prevent saltwater incursion. Besides agricultural development, industrialization of the Mekong River delta created a greater demand for water. While flooding of this river brings problems to its inhabitants, particularly those in newly developed areas where suitable housing is absent, it provides alluvial materials for soil fertility, and decreases the incidence of pests. This indicates a need to work out different sustainable strategies to meet the different needs of different regions. It also complicates distribution and management arising from the multiplicity of needs, to supply and save water in the dry season, prevent flooding in the rainy season, preserve the environment, treat agricultural and industrial waste and simultaneously deal with water-related issues consistently.
125 76. Besides prevailing problems, Vietnam expects water-related hazards such as severe storms to increase in frequency by 0.6 storm for each decade, and typhoons to raise the water level by 2 meters and account for 11 per cent of total storms. The sea level is predicted to increase by 0.2 cm annually, while coastal erosion and landslides are anticipated to intensify in terms of both number and strength. Daily rainfall is increasing by 500 to 700 mm or more. In internal areas such as Lai Chau and Konntum, it exceeds 300 mm. Decreasing forest areas results in more serious flooding. Flash floods also occur more often in many places, particularly in small basins. However, without any hydrological records, it is difficult to give exact calculations. The water flow in the dry season is narrowing due to decreasing rainfall, forest fires, deforestation and over exploitation of water sources. Shortage begins in February or March, which is one to two months earlier than previously.
77. Given the above scenario, the Vietnam Water Vision envisages an integrated and sustainable use of water resources and the provision of clean water for food and socio-economic development, preservation of water eco-systems, prevention and mitigation of its harmful effects and the maintenance of a reasonable pricing system. It foresees nationwide cooperation to achieve efficient and effective management, and international cooperation on shared river systems for mutual benefits.
Box 4: Implementation of the Red River Basin Vision
The March 2000 Hanoi Round Table on Water Vision made the following proposals: a) clean water, green land and a prosperous people, b) establish a Red River Basin Commission as agencies presently responsible for management of river basin water resources are fragmented among many bodies, provincial authorities and civic groups, c) consolidate all plans (sector and local) into an integrated basin plan for sustainable development, disseminate it to all stakeholders, and mobilize and encourage their participation in its implementation, and d) take priority actions to create an integrated master plan, establish a management body for the basin’s water resources within a suitable legal and institutional framework, popularise this plan, promote better control and mitigation of water-related disasters, particularly floods, enhance management role of government agencies to improve interaction between sectors and with the people, and increase public awareness of the “clean water and green land” concept and seek their involvement.
126 3.8.4 Malaysia
78. The Vision 2020 adopted by Malaysia no longer views water shortage as an issue because most flooding in the country has been mitigated through both structural and non-structural means, except in extreme cases of monsoon floods for which early warning systems and flood fighting and rescue measures are in place. In support of Vision 2020 which is to achieve developed nation status, Malaysia is conserving and managing its water resources to ensure adequate and safe supply for all (including the environment). The key objectives of this Vision are access to safe, adequate and affordable water supply to everyone, provision of sufficient amounts to ensure national food security and promote rural development, sustain economic growth within the context of knowledge based economy and e-commerce and protect the environment by preserving water resources (both surface and groundwater), natural flow regimes, biodiversity and cultural heritage as well as mitigate water related hazards.
79. Certain parts of the country experience floods even during times of water shortage.27 This is caused by excess rainwater running into streams and rivers and uncontrolled development in watershed areas and along river corridors. Excessive river sedimentation adversely affects drainage and leads to more frequent and intense flooding downstream. Flash floods are on the rise in urban centers due to the runoff characteristics of built-up areas. Absolute control is physically and economically impossible. However, mitigation measures, consistent with the cost involved, are being taken to reduce damage to a minimum. Besides the construction of dams and reservoirs and the improvement of river systems, steps to increase infiltration and/or to store excess water in small ponds and retention basins are being taken. The Drainage and Irrigation Department is producing a Storm Water Management Manual to address the incidence of flash floods in urban areas. The set of initiatives required to achieve the key objectives of the Vision is based on four challenges towards a better water future, that is, managing water resources efficiently and effectively (addressing both quantity and quality aspects), moving towards integrated river basin management, translating awareness to political will and capacities and moving towards adequate (safe) and affordable water services (befitting a developed nation status by 2020).
80. The move towards a better water future, besides being based on these four challenges, also sets out to attain certain targets that relate to the institutional and legal aspects of integrated water management, participatory approach to decision-making, development of new/innovative technologies, efficient use of water resources, extensive research and development, shift from water supply to water demand management, establishment of river basin organizations, promoting awareness, education, good databases and networking in the water sector, timely information dissemination,
27 High rainfall during monsoon periods floods large areas of the country. About 29,000 km2 or 9 per cent of the total land area in Malaysia is flood prone and this affects some 12 per cent of the population. The average annual flood damage has been estimated at RM 100 million (at 1980 prices) but this has increased due to urban expansion and the escalation of land and property values.
127 resource assessment, monitoring, ecosystems protection, flood and drought contingency plans, water quality management, frequent dialogue with stakeholders, water sector master plan and formation of a national water institute. The technologies that impinge on the water sector relate to its use and distribution, pollution, selection of drought-, pest- and salt-resistant crops that are expected to reduce its use, and subsequently, enhance supply availability by means of recycling and the application of renewable energies in this sector.
3.9 Joint Initiative of Mekong River Commission and FAO28
81. In 1995, ’96 and ‘97 heavy tropical storms and typhoons originating from the China Sea, caused disastrous flooding in Lao, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam. In Lao, about 24,000 ha of cropped land were flooded in 1994, 87,000 ha in 1995, and 76,000 ha in 1996. In 1996, 450,000 ha were flooded in Cambodia and heavy casualties occurred in the Mekong delta in Vietnam. FAO provided technical assistance to Lao PDR in 1996-1998,29 with the objectives of developing a better understanding of the dynamics of flooding, defining options for food loss prevention and formulating a strategy for flood management for its vulnerable agricultural sector.
82. The Mekong River Commission Secretariat (MRCS) is primarily responsible for planning and coordinating flood management. It cooperated with FAO in organizing a regional workshop on flood management and mitigation in the Mekong River Basin in Vientiane in March 1998. This workshop recommended the need for greater regional cooperation and for adequate technical support and resources among national governments. The Secretariat’s role is essential and its capacities require strengthening, in particular, to introduce technologically advanced techniques in flood monitoring and forecasting.
83. To overcome existing problems, it recommended identifying, classifying and mapping areas that are subject to flooding for purposes of preparedness and management. The potential offered by remote sensing to monitor and identify rapidly inundated areas and the use of GIS techniques to make inventories and analyse more systematically the impact of floods on agriculture and infrastructure should be explored. It was recognized that there was an urgent necessity to make flood management an integrated part of reservoir operation for hydropower, and that flood control works could offer more lasting solutions to flood management. Thus greater local awareness and preparedness in relief, mitigation and management is required, with proper institutional capacity at all levels to address water problems on a continuous basis, besides examining the potential to promote dry season irrigation to offset yield reduction due to flooding.
28 RAP Publication 1999/14. Flood Management and Mitigation in the Mekong River Basin. FAO, MRC Department of Irrigation, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry of Lao PDR Proceeding of the Regional Workshop, Vientiane, 19-21 March 1998. FAO, Bangkok. 29 Flood loss prevention and flood management plan for the agricultural sector, TCP/LAO/6613.
128 Box 5: Detailed Recommendations of the Vientiane Workshop on Flood Mitigation
Flood Surveys: a) integrate approach to data collection and management taking into account ground and satellite based technology, b) evaluate alternative procedures using remote sensing technologies, incorporating the hydrometric network and hydrodynamic studies, c) institute joint plan of action among regional pilot projects, d) practice real time reception of meteorological satellite data, e) promote national capacities for processing and use of flood data, and f) encourage further regional cooperation. Flood Forecasting and River Modelling: a) modernize present flood forecasting system of MRCS with new components such as pattern recognition techniques to process rainfall forecasts, distributed hydrological modelling, hydrodynamic and flow modelling etc., b) include the great lake area of Cambodia and the Mekong delta in Vietnam, c) exchange information and data transfer between regional and national centres, d) reinforce centres, and e) adopt a consistent and harmonized line of software for database management, simulation modelling and water resources planning.
● For Lao: (i) study flood phenomena on the Vientiane plain, (ii) operate reservoirs on a multipurpose basis, (iii) implement flood protection schemes based on typographic data and time dependent hydrologic simulation, and (iv) use differential GPS for topographic mapping. Flood Control Works: a) make additional studies to assess potential and feasibility of flood protection works, taking into account increased agricultural production from flood protection measures and irrigation, safety of human lives and possible impact on environment, b) ensure accuracy of topographical data base, c) strengthen local capacity in planning and implementation, including training of national and local technical staff for feasibility studies on flood control work and provision of support to local communities, and
129 Box 5: (continued)
d) develop a national framework for integrated water resources management, with adequate attention on a national water sector profile, including important potential flood control works, to ensure adequate investment and resources in this sector. Local Preparedness in Flood Control: a) develop awareness and preparedness in cooperation with local communities, b) plan community involvement to increase awareness and willingness to participate, c) furnish adequate technical and financial support, d) train provincial and district staff, and e) implement simple, low-cost irrigation technologies. National Flood Management Action Plan: a) develop a national flood management action plan, in each of the riparian countries of the Mekong river, which defines the strategies and priorities adopted, promote investment, capacity building and training at all levels, ensure cooperation between national agencies and ministries and coordinate regional cooperation and support, and b) reinforce flood management unit to define flood mitigation measures, monitor annual floods and create national and local preparedness for floods.
84. The following solutions at different levels and in different sectors were identified: a) survey and monitor flood prone areas to effectively mitigate floods, classify their depth and frequency and prepare for emergency measures to reduce or overcome damage caused by exceptional ones, b) forecast and monitor on a regional basis, c) institute proper reservoir management to optimise storage and energy production, d) invest in control works, e.g.,30 flood gates and protection dikes and make local and national investment studies to assess effectiveness of such
30 Important potential control works to reduce destruction and provide a more permanent solution to recurrent floods are: control gates to prevent back-up of high floodwater; control dams and retention dikes to protect urban areas and agricultural lands; widening and deepening tributaries and natural drains; diverting channels and retarding basins to divert floods to pre-designed wetlands where habitation and agricultural activities are absent.
130 measures taken, and provide a basis to prioritise essential investments to rehabilitate and construct flood control and water management infrastructure, e) build local awareness and preparedness at district and village levels, encourage cooperation in implementing self-help projects and making use of traditional technologies to find the most cost effective and sustainable technologies, f) diversify agricultural production and extend production basis of irrigated crops during dry season to compensate for recurrent losses due to floods, g) implement appropriate and adequate national and local mechanisms and capacity to cope with emergences and plan for long-term solutions, and h) establish a national flood management unit to consolidate strategies that include assessment, classification, monitoring, planning, etc. to contain flood damage.
4. STATE OF THE ART
4.1 Flood Alleviation Strategies
85. Such strategies have evolved in tandem with those on water management and development, and with a mix of successes and failures. In the less-developed regions of the world, the lack of access to resources and education and low income contribute to a population’s vulnerability to floods. They and other hazards need to be addressed systematically by stimulating social and economic advancement, rather than merely implementing alleviation schemes. Emphasis should be placed on a number of important areas, namely, catchment, coastal zone and floodplain management, giving local communities options regarding land development and flood alleviation, strengthening their resilience to disasters, improving their capacities to respond, preserving worthwhile indigenous technology and reducing the impact of humans on the environment.
86. Different strategies are required to tackle different types of floods. Riverine ones, e.g., are a feature of large river basins. Land-use and its control by zoning are important aspects of mitigating them and a key component to the overall integrated watershed management programme within their floodplains. Flash floods can be tackled by prohibiting affected lands from village occupancy. For urban flooding, the provision of adequate waterways and run-off detention storage sites, and prohibition of residential development in highly inundated parts are some of the measures commonly adopted. In developed urban floodplains, where the risk is extremely high, land-use planning and control are vital. Coastal flooding is location-specific and thus requires similar impositions, especially limiting or banning development in areas susceptible to storm surges.
131 87. Floods and droughts should not be managed separately. Both are natural events that bring too much or too little water. They occur in a continuous cycle, and it is common for the former to follow the latter. Multi-purpose measures are advocated rather than mere prevention and crisis management alone. River basin management may encompass changes in lifestyle patterns and industrial structure, corrections of any environmental imbalance and improvement schemes for rivers and land use. Many major structural flood protection projects have been completed, particularly on lowland rivers. However, raising embankments to reduce damage to floodplains is not the best option, while non-structural protection will grow in importance as part of sustainable river management.
88. The return period should not be used as a design standard to predict floods in any given year or a number of years. Instead, the annual probability of occurrence should be employed to ascertain their severity, and flow and level predictions expressed in probable bands rather than specific values. It is necessary to take into consideration the failure of a particular strategy and to seek solutions to alleviate or mitigate rather than protect or control. This means that any flood management strategy will have to involve a combination of different approaches rather than rely on a single one. Furthermore, reliable flood estimation is a function of the length of the stream flow gauging record, i.e., the return period that is about twice the length of the record. A 100-year flood is usually more severe than its magnitude, which probably can be predicted with greater accuracy. The economic objective is to maximize efficient use of the catchment and not to minimize flood loss. National trends on the latter do not necessarily form the basis for evaluating the success or failure of management strategies adopted by a nation. They can indicate that an efficient management policy can be accompanied by a rise in both flood loss and the cost of flood management.
89. It is important to adopt a catchment-based approach and misleading terms such as floodplain encroachment should be avoided. The question that should be asked is whether the development of a particular area of the floodplain should be encouraged, and if so, what form of management strategy should be adopted? Floodplains have competitive advantages over other areas of land, and therefore have always been centres for human settlement. Also, wetlands that develop within them contain the most valuable ecological resources on this planet.
90. Management of floods and their design are learning processes. It is essential to identify the objectives and assess the options, before designing a project and finally evaluating its economic, environmental and distributional impact (Table 5). Choices are made under uncertain conditions, due to the lack of differentiation between outcomes and/or the probabilities of each outcome. Risky decisions can usually differentiate between the probabilities and the consequences associated with each option.
91. Land use control unfortunately rarely works. The provision of incentives for development elsewhere would probably be more effective than simply attempting to stop settlement on the floodplain. Where land is heavily populated, especially under
132 Box 6: The Process of Flood Management
Flood Mitigation a) manage risk for all causes of flooding, b) establish contingency plans for evacuation routes, public service and infrastructure requirements and make critical decisions for emergency operation, c) construct and maintain defence infrastructure and implement forecasting and warning systems, d) plan and manage land use within the entire catchment, e) discourage inappropriate development within floodplains, and f) communicate with and educate public on flood risks and activate food emergency. Operational Flood Management
a) detect likely occurrence (hydro-meteorology), b) forecast future river flow conditions based on hydro-meteorological observations, c) issue warning to appropriate authorities and public on extent, severity and timing of flood, and d) respond to emergencies. Post-Flood Activities
a) provide for immediate needs of those affected, b) reconstruct damaged building, infrastructure and flood defence, c) recover and regenerate environment and economic activities in affected areas, and d) review flood management activities to improve planning for future events.
informal circumstances, imposing constraints are unlikely to be successful. Reforestation does no necessarily reduce flood risk, but forestry practices can be extremely worthwhile. Trees with high evapo-transpiration capability can be planted to lessen inundation and lower annual runoff, but this effect wears off as the forest matures. Deforestation tends to decrease evapo-transpiration and runoff concentration and thus increase annual runoff and flood peaks.
92. Modification of the water regime, a physical mitigation measure, would damage the existing ecosystem, while abandoning or changing past patterns of human intervention could cause environmental damage. Rivers are dynamic and adaptive systems, whose form varies as runoff and sediment loads change over time. They
133 Table 5. Environmental Advantages and Disadvantages of Flood Management Options31
Environment Option Advantages Disadvantages Runoff control reduces flood velocities and peak reduces low flows flows reduces soil erosion and sediment generation Reservoirs potential capture of some sediment, potential capture of some sediment, scale of reservoir I important in change in flood regime terms of both advantages and disadvantages (small bodies may be important for water birds) Detention basins depends on area adapted, typically this will have to be in the floodplain and so disbenefit depends on the value of the site Weirs increase variety in channel form small-scale effect on reservoir Artificial wetlands ecologically very valuable sediment accumulation Slowing the flood wave sediment deposit Widening the channel depends on form of new channel, depends on form if a multi-stage channel then potential benefit Deepening the channel generally very damaging, also unstable for new form, so require continuing disturbance through dredging Reducing channel generally very damaging destroying resistance most ecological value Bypass channel depends on form depends on value of the land through which the canal is cut Embankments/levees in areas where there is a long changes form of river bank above history of embankments and and below water, particularly drainage, very valuable ecosystems where bank protection is required may have been created in protected area Flood proofing may encourage settlement in a valuable area Resettlement away may allow the re-creation of resettlement area itself may either from the floodplain wetlands and natural river involve environmental loss or may result in changes in water and sediment load.
31 Green, Parker and Tunstall, 2000.
134 Table 6. Catchment Zones and Importance of Water and Sediments32
Catchment Zones Water Sediment Upland runoff generation sediment generation through soil erosion Floodplain flow regime patterns of sediment deposit, mobilization and erosion Delta area river and groundwater flows coast building versus erosion, determine limit of saltwater sediment deposit on sea floor intrusion into them
erode, transport and deposit sediment as much as they transport water. Any intervention measure must take into account these characteristics and attempts to stabilize rivers are usually an expensive exercise with little advantage (Table 6).
93. Probably no proven approach exists to manage the rehabilitation of watersheds, as they differ geographically, climatically, economically, socially and politically. Ample participatory methodologies for land resource planning have been developed at the country level, but they must be modified to suit specific situations. Publications, international texts and conventions mentioned in previous sections of this paper provide useful guidelines. There is also a wealth of information and literature on the socio-economic and technical aspects of land and water management (Lal, 1995). However caution is needed, as not all of them are based on solid scientific evidence. Thus a careful review of the exact circumstances and conditions of a particular technique and its effects are recommended, prior to adoption.
94. The impact of land use on water resources is clearly visible everywhere. Groups of upstream and downstream stakeholders are few and well organized. Thus the economic impact on them can be quantified. The benefit-sharing incentives to both groups of resource users are high enough to prevent them from resorting to other measures to solve their problems. There is thus justification for political commitment to establish upstream-downstream linkages within a strong institutional and legal framework, which allows for the implementation of benefit-sharing schemes that integrate surface and groundwater resources.
4.2 Surface and Groundwater Management and Accounting
95. It is now accepted that surface water and groundwater are interdependent and need to be considered and utilized together as a renewable resource. Influent and effluent streams, infiltration and interflow, recharge due to river flow and re-emergence of streams at lower stages of the river are manifestations of such interdependence.
32 Green, Parker and Tunstall, 2000.
135 Closed systems require increasingly efficient and effective management of both surface and groundwater water resources, and the ability to allocate and reallocate water to accommodate changing demands and priorities (Seckler, 1996).
96. One of the major advantages of storing water in underground aquifers is that it can be kept for years, with little or no evaporation loss. It can thus be used as a supplementary source of supply during drought years. It has also the benefit that storage can be near or directly under the point of use and is immediately available through pumping. The tube well revolution that has swept through agriculture capitalizes on these advantages. Another benefit of groundwater is that it is usually purified of biological pollutants as it slowly percolates down to aquifers. Thus it is the best source of drinking water, especially in rural areas of developing countries where water treatment facilities are not available. Increasing storage through a combination of groundwater and large and small surface water facilities holds great promise. Another example is the artificial recharge of groundwater (Kowsar, 2000) developed in Republic of Iran. It not only replenishes the empty aquifers on the debris cones, but also builds soils that can be used for growing food, feed, fibre and fuel-wood. This new approach to soil and water conservation in Iran’s deserts has tremendous potential. The critical issue facing many groundwater aquifers today is that the volume of withdrawal exceeds long-term recharge, resulting in rapidly declining groundwater levels in many areas.
Table 7. Comparative Advantages of Groundwater, Small Reservoir and Large Dam33
Private Groundwater Small Surface Water Large Dam Storage Reservoirs Reservoirs Advantages: Advantages: Advantages: Little evaporation loss ease of operation responsive reliable yield carryover Ubiquitous distribution to rainfall multiple use capacity low cost per m3 Operational efficiency groundwater recharge water stored multipurpose Available on demand flood control and hydropower Water quality groundwater recharge Limitations: Limitations: Limitations: Slow recharge rate high evaporation loss complex operation silting Groundwater contamination fraction relatively high high initial investment cost Cost of extraction unit cost absence of time needed to plan and Recoverable fraction over-year storage construct Key issues: Key issues: Key issues: Declining water level sedimentation adequate social and environmental Rising water level design dam safety impacts sedimentation Management of environmental impact dam safety access and use
33 Keller, Sakthivadivel and Seckler, 2000.
136 97. New and improved water accounting procedures developed at the Integrated Water Management Institute for assessing basin-level use and productivity (Molden, Sakthivadivel and Habib, 2001) offer powerful concepts and tools for identifying ways to improve productivity. Its accounting system maps outs the quantity and productivity for various purposes within a basin. This information is employed to identify the potential for conservation, and the means to increase the volume of managed supplies.
4.3 Water Management Strategies for Agriculture
98. Rain-fed agricultural areas, including those in developing countries, receive less generous and reliable natural water supply, and yields tend to be 25 to 35 per cent of their potential. Given an adequate holding size, such agriculture is able to provide a reasonable livelihood to farmers. Where rainfall is unreliable, improved farming techniques such as land levelling, ridging, etc. that increase water intake can improve the soil’s retention capacity and yields. Practices that reduce non-beneficial evaporation such as mulching can have similar effects.
99. Water harvesting34 lies somewhere between rain-fed and irrigated agriculture. It concentrates runoff from a larger land area for use in a smaller one. The objective is to capture as much water as possible and store it in the root zone. If this amount exceeds the quantity that can be stored, it results in recharging the groundwater. Although the area affected by rainfall harvesting is relatively insignificant, it can have a noticeable impact on regional food supplies and incomes.
100. Full irrigation is essential when planting during the dry season in arid, semi-arid and monsoon regions in the humid tropics. Major physical infrastructure is necessary to capture, store, transport and deliver the needed supplies. Such major works are generally managed by public agencies. Full irrigation can also be carried out on a less massive scale, using smaller water sources, wells, pump sets or alternative sources such as domestic wastewater. Farmers have developed and managed these moderate schemes according to their own set of values and rules in the past, and their modus operandi will continue to endure in the future. They adopt technologies that suit their financial and managerial capabilities.
101. Supplementary irrigation often increases yields and reduces the risk of crop failure where, under normal circumstances, reasonable yields can be expected. Farming in rain-fed terrain can be made more productive, cropping seasons extended, production failure caused by short periods of dry weather minimized and productivity expanded by irrigation during critical crop growth stages when water supply is temporarily inadequate. When dangers are reduced, farmers will be encouraged to step up the level of inputs utilized. The overall benefits can thus be very extensive.
34 RAP has developed a training programme on water harvesting (Klaus Siegert, RAPG contact person: Kluas [email protected]).
137 102. Much of the existing agricultural land in both rain-fed and irrigated regions still suffer from poor drainage and/or excessive salinity. In Southeast Asia, large tracts experience severe water logging and flooding annually, due to monsoon rains and tropical storms. Irrigation in the absence of adequate drainage has exacerbated natural drainage problems. Its improvement can, however, lead to important production advances by restoring healthy root moisture and encouraging the application of advanced agronomic practices such as high yielding varieties, fertilizers, and mechanization. Drainage has also contributed to agricultural intensification and diversification and made the sector more viable.
103. The recent recognition accorded to the value of natural wetlands has caused its reclamation to come to a virtual standstill. There are significant drawbacks to improved irrigation. Its large-scale use upstream increases the possibility of flooding and consequently damage, as well as shorten the length of time of water in the catchment and the recharge of groundwater. The resulting fall in the latter’s water table may have serious consequences on the ecosystem and bio-diversity. Thus high groundwater tables have to be maintained.
5. LIMITATIONS AND DIFFICULTIES
5.1 Complexity
104. The management of hydrological systems is a complex undertaking because of the numerous and simultaneous processes involved, their spatial variability, the spatial heterogeneity of watershed characteristics and scale effects (Kiersch, FAO, 2000). Some of these are intrinsic to the watershed itself, while others are related to hydrometeorological events. A watershed comprises a hydrographic network and a set of hill slope elements that drain water downstream. The characteristic scale of hill slope river flows is usually shorter. Moreover, most threshold effects appear within them. There is a major hiatus effect between these two sub-systems. The watershed appears to be structured, where the hydrographic network is a key point, and this is extremely important for short-term considerations such as flood management.
105. Hill slope characteristics play a major role in a watershed, as their patterns fit in with the hydrographic network. The watershed is small enough to give them importance in the entire temporal scale. Rainfall variability also complicates matters, as it interacts with the hydrographic, geometric and dynamic organization, and with the hills lope pattern.
106. Farmers or resource users tend to encounter some kind of environmental, economic and/or social risk. These are summarized in Table 8 for Central Asia. An outcome-oriented approach to classifying risk is to examine its impact on those affected. The dangers to individual households (individual risk), or all households in a given area (covariate risk) have fundamentally different consequences and thus call for different responses (Swift, 1999).
138 Table 8. Main Pastoral Risk Categories Faced by Herders in Central Asia35
Category Examples 1. Environment snow disaster, drought, fire, predation, animal disease, heavy spring rain 2. Economic animal theft, market failure, terms of trade, market channels 3. Social illness, conflict
107. Managing disasters and minimizing agricultural vulnerability (FAO, 2001) refer to actions taken prior to, during, and after a disaster. Measures to mitigate the agricultural impact of storm-related catastrophes are required for all stages of an emergency. Greater attention needs to be placed on pre-disaster efforts that strengthen the resilience of agricultural production and rural livelihood.36 As countries, communities and population sub-groups are prone to various types of natural calamities simultaneously (e.g. storm and flood) or subsequently (e.g. drought and flood), the remedies to arrest them must be integrated with those that address other kinds of disasters.
108. Traditionally, two very different categories of “actors” are involved in developing management approaches, those with a “resource focus” that leads to the development of a catchment on an “integrated water resource management (IWRM)” scale, and those with a “people focus” that emphasize “sustainable livelihoods” on a village or household scale. Each approach has its limitations. The former may not be taking into account impact at the village or household level, especially when they affect the poorest in society, while the latter, in the absence of any resource regulation, may lead to resource constraints and depletion in the catchment (Calder, 2000).
5.2 Problem of Scale
109. Recent literature (Kiersch, FAO, 2000) reviewed the impact of land use changes on downstream hydrology in the catchment area. Two conclusions are drawn from it; the impact of certain types of land use can extend beyond the field or plot to affect downstream users; and, in general, land-use impact on water resources are only measured for basins of up to a few hundred square kilometres. The size of the river basin is critical for effective management. Table 9 gives the optimal scale of meso-basins within well-defined state or national jurisdictions as 100-500 km2. Benefit-sharing arrangements are unnecessary when the land use impact does not
35 Swift, 1999. 36 Disaster mitigation and preparedness activities also play an important role at the relief and rehabilitation stage, by strengthening the resilience of agricultural systems and rural communities against future disasters through appropriate resettlement measures. However, time constraints during the post-disaster period may cause poor planning and co-ordination of recovery activities and lead to the adoption of schemes that are not sustainable in the long-run. These aspects need to be considered when deciding the appropriate placement of disaster interventions (OECD, 1994: Disaster Mitigation Guidelines).
139 Table 9. Hydrological Impact of Upland Land Use on Basin Size37
Basin size [km2] Impact Type 0.1 1 10 102 103 104 105 Average flow Ð x x x Ð Ð Ð Peak flow Ð x x x Ð Ð Ð Base flow Ð x x x Ð Ð Ð Groundwater recharge x x x x Ð Ð Ð Sediment load Ð x x x Ð Ð Ð Nutrients x x x x x Ð Ð Organic matter Ð x x x Ð Ð Ð Pathogens x x x Ð Ð Ð Ð Salinity Ð x x x x x x Pesticides x x x x x x x Heavy metals x x x x x x x Thermal regime x x Ð Ð Ð Ð Ð Legend: x = Measurable impact; Ð = No measurable impact. extend beyond the farm plot. Clearly, the relevant scale(s) will differ with regard to the type of impact. Also, environmental conditions (climatic, topographic, socio-economic, etc.) may determine the scale of impact.
110. This confirms ESCAP’s statement (1997) that when the run-off behaviour of a watershed is within the hydrologically small category, the implementation of appropriate forms of land use can be particularly effective in mitigating floods. On the other hand, if a catchment is considered hydrologically large, the effectiveness of such measures to minimize major flood disasters is severely limited, especially at the lower reaches of the basin and on the floodplain.
111. This is not meant to suggest that land-use management on the upper watershed should not be undertaken. Such management is, in fact, valuable for direct flood mitigation and may have a range of other advantages, including preserving the integrity and productivity of the catchment soil, its vegetation, wildlife habitat, quality of its ecosystem and environment, besides improving the standard of living of its community. It may not reduce major flood peaks substantially further downstream, but it may reduce catchment and stream bank erosion and transport of sediment to lower reaches. It would be necessary, if only to maintain or improve water quality throughout the entire river system.
112. Land use impacts on hydrologic regimes and sediment transport are most obvious on small spatial scales. At the same time, the number of water users who might readily benefit or suffer from this change in land use, increases with the size of
37 Kiersch, 2000.
140 the watershed. Due to the decreasing magnitude of its impact, the respective costs and benefits will be small. Effects on water quality, such as salinity and pesticide pollution, however, are equally relevant in medium-to large-scale river basins because of nutrient influx. These may affect downstream uses, including those providing drinking water to industries, fisheries and other agricultural uses.
113. Large projects in upland areas such as afforestation programmes, should be implemented to improve the ecological conditions and livelihood opportunities in mountainous terrain. Further efforts are needed to clarify or eradicate misconceptions regarding land-water linkages to facilitate political discussions on international river systems and assist mountain communities develop or maintain sustainable land use strategies and practices. A number of massive reforestation programmes are unfortunately still based on the erroneous idea that flooding problems in the plains are caused by deforestation in upland watersheds.
114. Problems of scale have intriguing consequences. The solutions depend on the scale at which one envisages a problem. For instance, its relationship to the consequences of over extracting groundwater has substantial environmental, economic and other implications (FAO, 2001). Focusing solely on macro food security concerns could divert attention from groundwater issues that are important in their own right. Viewing over-exploitation of groundwater from a global food security perspective would mean focusing attention on world and national efforts to manage and control the use of this resource base. If, on the other hand, it is regarded more as a regional concern, then the efforts made to accommodate the scarcity by moving out of agriculture, could be considered economically viable and justifiable.
115. The temporal scale of land use impact (Kiersch, 2000) is important as it determines the perceptions of such an impact as well as its economic cost. Two aspects of this are crucial; firstly, the length of time it takes for a particular land use to have an impact downstream and, secondly, in negative cases, the timeframe for remedial measures to work. The temporal scale of such impact varies widely, depending on the consequences, which may range from less than a year, as in the case of bacterial contamination, to hundreds of years as in the case of salinity. Similarly, the time scale for recovery from adverse impacts is very diverse, depending on their nature. However, in most cases, the time span needed to restore an aquatic system following an adverse impact is much longer than the period taken for an impact to appear.
116. Time-scales are of great value for observing and understanding phenomena associated with changes in land use, particularly vegetation cover and water management. Deforestation is less extensive and complete than is generally imagined. Hydrologists and climatalogists (Reynolds and Thomson, 1988) are rarely conversant with the social and economic reasons that govern this activity, and with the complete range of resultant vegetation types, their uses, or the degree of impoverishment. These two problems could be remedied by investigations that give a historic perspective of changing land use in areas selected for their hydrological and climatological significance. This is crucial as forest succession and age impinge on hydrology. For
141 example, the contrast that can be observed from the pronounced changes in water yield following the first year of deforestation, and the subsequent, often marginal effects (rarely equal to 20 per cent of the original value), when a new vegetative cover is established. Forest clearance brings on an immediate, short-term increase in discharge. Subsequent tree growth produces well-known and important alterations to surface hydrology. For natural tropical forests, rapid growth rates mean that any analogous effects would operate over greatly reduced time-scales.
117. The heterogeneity of important hydrological parameters and processes make extrapolation difficult (Reynolds and Thomson, 1988). The number of classes of soil, vegetation, or land use often increases with scale. Perceived spatial heterogeneity is thus intimately linked with scale. For instance, local soil moisture measurements cannot be applied to the entire catchment because of the small-scale variability of soil and a poor understanding of runoff characteristics. Thus simplistic models for both these processes have to be adopted. Although widely used, they are poor predictors of macro-catchment behaviour. Ideally, appropriately scaled models should be utilized for extrapolating to a larger scale. Unfortunately, the spatial and temporal variability of soils and hydrology cause risks to be very much conditioned locally (Burke, 2000), that any generalization masks the root causes of degradation. These have largely to do with the failure to recognize the broad hydro-environmental dangers that are associated with the modification of landscapes.
5.3 Problems of Uncertainty
118. Data on water balance and productivity for irrigation schemes at basin, system and farm levels are scarce and when reported, the method of derivation is not described. Such inadequacy makes it difficult to analyse its productivity (FAO, 2001). The situation as shown below is no better for groundwater resources38 (FAO, 2001).
119. The available groundwater database contains a wide range of inherent limitations, including inadequate records and limited yearly monitoring. This constrains any analysis that can be conducted on the magnitude and extent of water level fluctuations. Experience in locations such as the San Luis Valley in southern Colorado indicates that substantial uncertainty39 remains in water balance estimates despite decades of detailed monitoring and the application of appropriate models following intense discussions on water management.
120. Water balance estimates shed little light on whether users in a given region are likely to or actually face problems of scarcity. Available basic data on levels and fluctuations are generally inaccessible. Groundwater information is politically sensitive and thus subject to pressure. Consequently, objective evaluation on the extent of groundwater depletion is lacking.
38 India’s case, but the situation is similar for most countries. 39 In the SLV case, a gap of about 30 per cent remains in water balance estimates despite detailed monitoring and numerous modelling efforts made over the past three to four decades.
142 121. A wealth of resource-based information exists in most countries, but access to or use of it is often difficult. It is held by different organizations and, in some cases, by various departments or individuals within them. Spatial and non-spatial data is stored in a wide range of formats; in maps, remote-sensing images, tables, texts, yearbooks, research papers and computer discs. The spatial and temporal scales of data collected differ enormously and its quality is also extremely variable.
122. Many erroneous explanations of phenomena arise because the models used only give partial understanding of the systems involved (Ives and Isserlé, 1989). Although the physical elements underlying the models are accurate, they have little predictive value. Phenomena also depend on complex interactions between the water resource and social and economic forces that are not fully understood. Even when there is comprehension, interactions between non-linear systems often produce unpredictable and counterintuitive results. In addition, the data available for validation is frequently insufficient.
123. An example is the Ordos Plateau in the Peoples Republic of China where conflicting interpretations cannot be resolved. The plateau is a major area for sandy deposits from the Yellow River. Serious desertification and erosion add coarse, sandy deposits to the silt discharge of this river (United Nations University, 1995). It is estimated that the Ordos accounts for 10 per cent of such discharge and transports one-third of the coarse sand for the Yellow River. In short, environmental changes in this region affect deposits in the Yellow River, thereby endangering its lower areas. Disputes over the causes of such changes throughout history are apparent. Some scientists argue that natural conditions have played a dominant role, while human activities made only a slight impact. Others believe otherwise.
124. The above observations are not intended to discredit modelling efforts. They are useful tools for explaining the physical data and interpreting the results of management changes. When properly developed and calibrated with adequate data, they can provide valuable predictions. The basic scientific information necessary to structure models is, however, lacking in analyses carried out in India and many developing countries.
125. Natural resource managers have to deal with strong economic and political forces. They must often make decisions without complete knowledge of complex natural phenomena. Therefore their strategies can be challenged from time to time, as inadequate knowledge prevents accurate analyses of the effects certain activities can have on watersheds. Thus more emphasis must be placed on monitoring such impact. Table 10 shows the degree of uncertainty in which managers or decision-makers operate, especially when compelled by necessity to make crucial decisions.
126. Very few managers can, in reality, follow the guidelines recommended for disaster preparedness and mitigation to arrive at decisions in a risk-ridden situation. They are lucky if they can act under unsure conditions. Managing uncertainty and, whenever possible, either reducing it or taking it into account by avoiding strategies
143 Table 10. Decision-Making under Risk, Uncertainty or Ignorance40
Knowledge about Knowledge about Outcomes Probabilities Well-defined Ill-defined Differentiated probabilities Risk Ambiguity Undifferentiated probabilities Uncertainty Ignorance that cannot adapt to change or unpredictable forces seem particularly “risky” to begin with.
5.4 Limits to Flood or Drought Alleviation Strategies
127. Box 7 describes what is now classically known as the turn of the water screw. It explains how responses to perceived water scarcity are becoming increasingly complex. The inability of societies to adapt to shortages can be termed social water scarcity (FAO, 2000). The definition of drought is relative to demand, and is therefore ambiguously related to the notion of scarcity. However, the idea of successive turns of the screw means that, after a time, mitigation and recovery measures, and resilience are insufficient to address forthcoming scarcity, which may take the from of droughts of increasing frequency and/or occurrence. The danger is that, at a time when society must be ready to change drastically (the third turn of the screw), it is still “comfortably installed” in what appears to be a sound adaptation phase.
Box 7: Water Scarcity: “The Turn of the Water Screw”
a) Crucial scarcity is recognized purely as a natural resource scarcity and the remedy is “to get more water”. The goal is largely accomplished by large-scale engineering efforts. This is the era of “heroic engineering”; b) It is acknowledged that it may no longer be possible to develop additional large volumes of water. The effort at this stage is towards efficient measures, predominantly end-use efficiency. The goal is to get “more use per drop”; c) Concomitantly, the last turn of the screw is initiated. It often entails profound changes in national polices, since allocating efficiency means abandoning expensive schemes, such as large-scale irrigation projects that generate a low value per unit of water. The food needed for populations with high development expectations has to be imported and paid for by industrial and tertiary-sector development. The extensive restructuring necessitated at the final turn of the screw also entails larger risks of tension, possibly even conflict within countries and between sectors and population groups, which may or may not be favoured by the new socio-economic environment. FAO AGL/misc/25/2000.
40 Green, Parker and Tunstall, 2000.
144 128. It is recommended that disaster mitigation strategies, particularly for drought, should incorporate long-term adaptation measures, and not merely designed to cope with the phenomenon. ESCAP41 (1999) suggested that long-term strategic planning based on prospective studies are particularly relevant.
5.5 Myths
129. Decisions on land use and water resource are often still based on perceived wisdom (myth) rather than on established scientific reality (Calder, FAO, 2000). This is especially the case with the relationship between deforestation, reforestation and afforestation. Some of the “myths” (listed below) have recently been reviewed at a FAO e-mail conference on land-water linkages.42
130. Forests increase rainfall. There is some kind of relationship between land use controls and precipitation, but it is much less intense than imagined (forest by grass or secondary forest), although it cannot be totally dismissed. The distribution of forests is a consequence of climate and soil conditions and not the reverse.
131. Forests increase runoff. They generally decrease runoff (evaporate- and transpire more) compared with areas under shorter vegetation. There is a need to know precisely the soil type/forest cover combinations for greater accuracy.
132. Forests regulate and increase dry season flows Such need not necessarily be the case, as competing processes may result in either increased or decreased dry season flows. Effects on them are very likely to be location specific.
133. Forests reduce erosion. Man’s influence is limited in areas of high natural sediment that are caused by steep terrain. Large leaves generate large splash erosion. Disturbed forests and forest plantations may result in either increased or reduced erosion. The latter does not guarantee the same erosion benefits as natural forests. Forest cover alone is inadequate; forest quality is perhaps a more important factor.
134. Forests reduce floods. Deforestation of the Himalayas is made responsible for floods in Bangladesh and northern India. However, hydrological studies have shown that there is little connection between land use and storm flows. Theoretically, this applies for small floods, but is not significant for large storms, reduced runoff and stork response. Scale approach is the key to an understanding of highland-lowland issues. Tree planting on hill-slopes, watershed activities and extensive soil conservation measures are valuable for the hill farmer, but potentially disastrous for foreign aid agencies and national governments to undertake such activities with the conviction that they can solve the problems on the plains.
41 Ti and Facon, 2001. 42 www.fao.org/ag/agl/watershed/
145 135. Agroforestry systems increase productivity. Single cropping is better for low rainfall areas (less than 800 mm). Practices such as multiple cropping and agro-forestry that increase productivity, if successful, are likely to have downstream effects due to rising water usage. Evidence suggests that there is no difference to productivity with mixed cropping and the planting of trees. They generally lead to a reduction in biomass of any associated crop, and at best, no change in total biomass production can be expected. Recent research suggests that any decrease in crop yields due to tree competition will automatically increase the frequency of poor yield years and threaten food security: There is thus little gain in productivity by mixing trees with agricultural crops, and if there were, it would mean increasing the use of water.
136. Reforestation of dry land is useful to combat drought: In saline-prone dry land, replanting trees and shrubs in the catchment’s recharge area increases evaporation and reduces recharge and groundwater levels. This is good for salinity control. The removal of forests lessens evaporation and saline water tables rise to produce saline seeps. Nevertheless, tree and shrub planting as part of watershed programmes is frequently advocated as the key to regenerating springs and river flows.
137. Shifting cultivators are the main initiators of erosion in (previously) forested hilly areas. This is generally incorrect, although a popular belief that leads to the identification of agroforestry as a solution to erosion problems.
138. The report (Calder, FAO, 2000) concludes that there is a need for greater cooperation among agencies responsible for making policy decisions, so that erroneous opinions do not interfere with the selection of the best approaches to improve water resources. If the objective of reforestation or forestation is to improve water resources, it is unlikely to be achieved.43
5.6 Limits in Valuation Methods
139. There is a need to consider the costs and benefits of a well-preserved watershed, especially in terms of environmental goods and services44 (Eschevarria, 2000). There is also a growing importance to effectively value water resource practices and policies that promote its efficient use. Appropriate methods are available to estimate the impact in terms of water quantity. However, they are only as good as the evaluation of real impacts/effects. Information gaps and contradictory evidence, time scale and intergenerational issues, the diversity of stakeholders and distribution of benefits and
43 A programme of pine reforestation in Sri Lanka on the Mahaweli catchments was meant to regulate flows and reduce erosion. In reality, both annual and seasonal flows were reduced. This project is having the reverse effect. It increased erosion. Fortunately there was little sedimentation in the reservoir. Hill slope sediment is deposited on the lower slopes and floodplains to the benefit of paddy farmers. 44 Environmental goods and services are the conditions and processes through which natural ecosystems and their species sustain human life. They maintain biodiversity and produce such goods as seafood, forage, timber, biomass fuels, natural fibre, and many pharmaceutical and industrial products and their precursors.
146 costs in watersheds make their valuation particularly uncertain in land and water management.
5.7 Limits in Institutions
140. When confronted with the problems faced by South Asia, where solutions require actions that often span across state, national and international boundaries, existing approaches to water management (such as those adopted for the South India Water Vision) run the risk of being inadequate and slow in implementation or adoption for various reasons. Some form of cross-border collaboration (such as allocation, and joint planning and enforcement of control structures) is necessary but difficult to achieve politically. Besides, it entails major environmental costs (such as water logging associated with embankments and the necessary diversion of in-stream flows to actively recharge groundwater on a large scale). Basic scientific data on basin and aquifer hydrology that is currently unavailable, but vital in Asia, has taken western nations numerous decades to develop. In addition, some form of cooperative action by countries to conserve water and reduce demand may take many years to attain but albeit essential. Major institutional restructuring of legal systems (water rights) and organizations (dealing with irrigation, public health and engineering, etc.) is required.
141. This is another variation of the time scale problem. Strategies must achieve results to avoid further degradation or distress, or at least to maintain it at bearable or reversible levels. Reforms in water policy and legislation, and the creation of new institutions take time to institute. In the interim, institutional analysis for the design flood and drought plans must continue (Helweg, 2000). Present institutions, however imperfect, will have to be retained to assist in future improvements (Green, Parker and Tunstall, 2000).
142. The larger the watershed, the more difficult it is to keep the interest of the general public. Upland dwellers find themselves too far removed to connect with catastrophes downstream. Organizationally, basin work for large rivers is the responsibility of governments. A fundamental reason for the lack of understanding of interactions between surface and subsurface hydrology is the fact that surface hydrologists tend to concentrate on land and surface water linkages, while hydro-geologists tend to focus on land and groundwater linkages. As these studies are usually carried out independently, a number of important interactions are omitted.
143. The sharing of the costs and benefits of watershed management is critical to its viability and efficient management. This is not confined to only upstream and downstream beneficiaries. There is a need for equal distribution within a community and within households. This entails long-term planning based on sound environmental principles that are immune to economic and political change. However, all production and development strategies have social, political and environmental implications. Strong participation may be a key element for the sustainability of river basin institutions, which are subject to general political events. Many water quality problems
147 seem to become obvious only after a period of time. Due to this time lag, it is difficult or even impossible to retain the attention of the public for long. In addition, many formidable variables prevent effective management and protection of watersheds that deliver clean water to users.
144. The Haihe Basin (Burke, 2000) is subject to extreme hydrological cycles and inter-annual variability. This is characteristic of southern China’s climate where flooding has brought massive human and economic burdens. They resulted in major capital investment in structural flood control at the state and local levels, but no similar effort was made to co-ordinate basin management during times of drought. Instead, reliance on groundwater was considered sufficient, without any attempts made to smooth out peak demands and shortfalls. The resulting impact on grain production is significant, but difficult to capture, since the effects are felt both in space and time across the basin. Between 1949 and 1990, the average area hit by droughts in the Huaihe River basin was 2.5 million ha, while the severely affected region amounted to 1.3 million ha, or 20.1 and 10.6 per cent respectively of the cultivated area (12.4 million ha).
145. Response to drought entails tackling issues regarding water allocation, its priorities, restrictions and utilization. Normally, the order of priority is domestic supply, followed by environmental demand, and then services/industries’ requirements. Imposing restrictions on access or use is not as popular as protecting a user from flood damage. Priority rights can only be established after overall rights are in place.
146. In spite of growing concerns over groundwater, its extraction and past catastrophes, the creation of an institution capable of managing it has as yet to be realized. Global water management literature tends to emphasize the importance of complete organizational restructuring in the water sector and the development of “comprehensive” and “integrated” strategies. Calls to integrated water rights, markets or other frameworks that allocate limited supplies, and the formation of basin or aquifer management authorities with substantial regulatory powers are common. The focus is heavily on water resource management per se. Integrating such institutions, according to some authors, may be too narrow an approach to effectively solve even water problems.
6. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
147. The development of integrated water management systems capable of addressing problems at a basin or aquifer scale is a long-term undertaking. They are unlikely to fulfil the immediate needs of populations living in drought and flood prone areas, and develop adaptive strategies for emerging water problems in South Asia. The latter require the role of institutions that are both flexible and systematic when identifying the main forces of change at a particular time, and to propose appropriate responses that may well be outside the spheres of management.
148 148. Managing hydrological risk involves not only coping with extreme events caused by climatic variability, floods and low river flows, but also dealing with the day-to-day flow changes, extractions, releases and pollution loads. Efficient management is required with increasing water scarcity and closure of river basins. The advent of large-scale surface water storage structures, mechanized boreholes, cheap fertilizers and pesticides in the mid-20th century may have given irrigated agriculture a false sense of security. The rigidity of resource management as manifested in many recent irrigation projects reveals an oversight of the inherent variability of natural systems. Such schemes can be sustained by spreading risk equitably and transparently among resource regulators, managers and users, but it involves greater flexibility in responding to management and taking into consideration natural parameters and socio-economic settings. This flexibility is attainable by modernizing institutions and distribution systems. A clear understanding of the risks and underlying mechanisms of land and water resource management is also warranted to make the case for the equitable and transparent spread of hydrological risks and associated costs.
149. The adoption of disaster alleviation measures and correct planning techniques during early stages of design are instrumental in ensuring that they not only improve the resilience and capacity of people to cope with short-term hydrological risks, but also contribute towards the preparation for growing water scarcity and other acute situations. A comprehensive knowledge of water resource systems is essential to move away from a situation of ignorance or at best uncertainty to one of calculated risk.
150. River-basin management strategies including those for floods and droughts can be facilitated by the adoption of proper accounting techniques and the continued development of reliable hydro-meteorological, agro-meteorological and groundwater monitoring services. They provide the necessary data not only for daily management and forecasting, but also for modelling purposes and strategic planning. The ability to cope with disasters is dependent on the flow of good hydrometeorological information from data collection agencies and institutions that conduct analysis, and finally on the capability of public bodies, authorities and communities responsible for implementing protection and mitigation measures.
151. Investments in information collection, analysis and dissemination is as critical as establishing a strong institutional framework in which vital tasks are clearly mandated. When the resource base is stretched to the limit, and during times of crisis, disputes and arguments over areas of responsibility can result in loss of livelihoods and economic opportunities. It should also be recognized that hydrological risk is reflected in its impact on the financial, economic and public health/safety aspects of a country.
152. In Asia, research and development are essential on how to manage water under monsoon conditions, especially in the tropics and semi-tropics where major river basins are closing fast. The productivity of water, including floodwater as presently used, must also be assessed to determine the extent which increasing demand for irrigated agricultural production can be met by stepping up water productivity, and when growing
149 requirements need increased consumption. Any untapped discharges from basins that are open or semi-closed must be exploited and plans made to effectively capture and put this water to use.
153. Whenever feasible, combinations of small and large storage, and surface water and groundwater recharge are found to give the best systems. The lack of information on land use at local and sub-national levels also poses a constraint to adequate mitigation strategies for the agricultural sector. This needs to be remedied. Research must also be conducted on operational catchment hydrology, e.g. land-water linkage modelling, rural groundwater and conjunctive use management, relevant institutions, and on the medium- to long-term impact of strategies implemented to cope with water-related disasters on natural resources. The compatibility of this approach with integrated land and water management should be assessed.
150 BIBLIOGRAPHY
Amarasinghe, U.A., Mutuwatta, L. and Sakthivadivel, R. 1999. Water Scarcity Variations within a Country: A Case Study of Sri Lanka. Research Report 32. ISBN 92-9090-383-X. IIMI. Research Centre for Natural Resources and Animal Husbandry. 2000. Aquifer Management: A New Approach to Soil and Water Conservation in the Deserts of Iran. Shiraz. Burke, J. 2000. Land and Water Systems: Managing Hydrological Risk. Natural Resources. JNRF 24:2. Calder, I. 2000. Land-Water Linkages in Rural Watersheds. FAO Electronic Workshop, Background Paper 1: Land Use Impact on Water Resources. De Graaf, J. 2000. Land-Water Linkages in Rural Watersheds. FAO Electronic Workshop, Background Paper 5: Downstream Effects of Land Degradation and Soil and Water Conservation. ESCAP. 1997. Guidelines and Manual on Land-Use Planning and Practices in Watershed Management and Disaster Reduction. United Nations, New York. ESCAP. 1999. Regional Cooperation in the Twenty-First Century on Flood Control and Management in Asia and the Pacific. United Nations, New York. Eschavarria, M. 2000. Land-Water Linkages in Rural Watersheds. FAO Electronic Workshop, Discussion Paper 4: Valuations of Water-Related Services to Downstream Users in Rural Watersheds: Determining Values for the Use and Protection of Water Resources. FAO. 1976. A Framework for Land Evaluation. FAO Soils Bulletin No. 32. Rome. FAO. 1977. Guidelines for Watershed Management. FAO Conservation Guide 1. Rome. FAO. 1985. Watershed Management Field Manual Ð Vegetative and Soil Treatment Measures. FAO Conservation Guide 13/1. Rome. FAO. 1986. FAO Watershed Management Field Manual: Gully Control. FAO Conservation Guide 13/2. Rome. FAO. 1986. Strategies, Approaches and Systems in Integrated Watershed Management. FAO Conservation Guide 14. Rome. FAO. 1987. Guidelines for Economic Appraisal of Watershed Management Projects. FAO Conservation Guide 16. Rome. FAO. 1996. Rome Declaration on World Food Security and World Food Summit Plan of Action. Rome.
151 FAO. 2001. Committee on Agriculture. Reducing Agricultural Vulnerability to Storm-Related Disasters. Sixteenth Session. Rome. FAO. 2000. New Dimensions in Water Security-Water Society and Ecosystem Services in the 21st Century. AGL/MISC/25/2000. FAO. Water Security: Adaptive Strategies for Addressing Emerging Water Problems in South Asia (draft). Gommes, R. 1992. The Role of Agro-Meteorology in the Alleviation of Natural Disasters. FAO. Gommes, R., Bakun, A. and Farmer, G. 1998. An El Niño Primer, SD Dimensions. Green, C.H., Parker, D.G. and Tunstall, S.M. 2000. World Commission on Dams, Thematic Reviews Option Assessment. In: Assessment of Flood Control and Management Options. Gleick, P.H. 2000. The Changing Water Paradigm, a Look at Twenty-First Century Water Resources Development. Water International 25 (1) 33-39. Helweg, O.J. 2000. Water for a Growing Population, Water Supply and Groundwater Issues in Developing Countries. Water International 25 (1) 33-39. Government of India. Ministry of Environment and Forestry. 2000. National Report on Implementation of United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification. New Delhi. Ives, J.D. and Messerli, B. 1989. The Himalayan Dilemma. United Nations University Press. New York. Keller, A., Keller, J. and Seckler, D. 1996. Integrated Water Resource Systems: Theory and Policy Implications. Research Report 3. ISBN 92-9090-326-0. IIMI. Keller, A., Sakthivadivel, R. and Seckler, D. 2000. Water Scarcity and the Role of Storage in Development. Research Report 39. ISBN 92-9090-399-6. IIMI. Kiersch, B. 2000. Land-Water Linkages in Rural Watersheds. FAO Electronic Workshop, Discussion Paper 1: Land Use Impacts on Water Resources, A Literature Review. Kiersch, B. 2000. Land-Water Linkages in Rural Watersheds. FAO Electronic Workshop, Discussion Paper 2: Instruments and Mechanisms for Upstream- Downstream Linkages: A Literature Review. Lal, R. 1995. Sustainable Management of Soil Resources in the Humid Tropics. United Nations University Press. New York. Le, H.T. and Facon, T. 2000. The FAO-ESCAP Pilot Project on National Water Visions. Synthesis of Experience in Southeast Asia. FAO-ESCAP. World Water Council. 2000. A Vision of Water for Food and Rural Development.
152 Molden, D., Sakthivadivel, R. and Habib, Z. 2001. Publications & Research Output. Basin-Level Use and Productivity of Water: Examples from South Asia. Research Report 49. ISBN 92-9090-425-9. IWMI. Mainguet, M. 1995. Man-Induced Desertification? Based on a Presentation Made. UN University Lectures: 12. Tokyo. Manshard, W. and Morgan, W.B. 1988. Agricultural Expansion and Pioneer Settlements in the Humid Tropics. United Nations University. New York. Molle, F. 2001. Water Pricing in Thailand; Theory and Practice. DORIS-Delta Research Paper 7. Kasetsart University, Bangkok. RAP Publication. 1999. Flood Management and Mitigation in the Mekong River Basin. In: Proceeding of the Regional Workshop, Vientiane. 19-21 March 1998. FAO, Bangkok. Reynolds, E.R. and Thompson, F.B. 1988. Forests, Climate, and Hydrology. United Nations University. Riddell, J. and Palmer, D. 1999. S D Dimensions: The Importance of Coordinated Land Administration in the Next Millennium. Land Tenure Service. FAO. Seckler, D. 1996. The New Era of Water Resources Management: from “Dry” to “Wet” Water Savings. Research Report 1. ISBN 92-9090-325-2. IIMI. Swift, J. 1999. Pastoral Institutions and Approaches to Risk Management and Poverty Alleviation in Central Asian Countries in Transition. University of Sussex and FAO Rural Development Division. United Nations University. 1995. The Relationship Between Drought and Famine. United Nations University. New York. UNEP. 1999. Climate Change Information Sheets. UNEP. 2001. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Working Group I. Third Assessment Report. Summary for Policymakers. UNEP. 2001. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Working Group II. Third Assessment Report. Draft. UNEP. 2001. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Working Group. Final Draft Summary for Policymakers. Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. UNEP. 2000. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change. White, W.R. 2000. Water in Rivers: Flooding. A Contribution to the World Water Vision. International Association of Hydraulic Engineering and Research. Wallingford. World Commission on Dams. 2000. Dams and Development: A New Framework for Decision-Making.
153 (154 blank) Annex IX APDC/01/5
FOREST FIRE PREVENTION AND PREPAREDNESS IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC*
ABSTRACT
Large areas of savannah and mixed forest grasslands in the Asia Pacific region experience forest fires every year, particularly in the dry zones of central and northern Asia. Agricultural land, vegetation and forest in the humid tropics although less prone to small fires are also affected by large-scale outbreaks. In recent years, their impact worldwide has been rather pronounced. Not all of them are disasters. In fact the majority are used to meet objectives that are often essential to sustaining livelihood. Their impact on agriculture and other areas can be severe, especially when assessed indirectly. Addressing their effects on agriculture involves the application of sensible and tested measures and requires the participation of a wide range of stakeholders in planning. The key elements concern strategies to prevent, prepare and respond to an outbreak, and most importantly to recover from it. The governments of many countries lack an understanding of the socio-economic and human issues that surround vegetation, agriculture, communities and fires.
* Prepared by P. Durst, RAP Senior Forestry Officer; and FAO Consultant, Peter F. Moore, Coordinator Project Fire Fight South East Asia, Indonesia.
155 CONTENTS
Page 1. INTRODUCTION ...... 157 1.1 Definitions ...... 158 1.1.1 Forest Fires ...... 158 1.1.2 Farmers ...... 160 1.1.3 Fire Disasters ...... 160
2. EFFECT ON FOOD AND AGRICULTURE...... 162 2.1 Direct Impacts ...... 163 2.1.1 Agricultural Losses ...... 163 2.1.2 Other Types of Losses ...... 165 2.2 Indirect Impact...... 165
3. PROTECTING FARMLAND, FORESTRY AND LIVELIHOOD ... 165 3.1 Prevention ...... 167 3.2 Preparedness and Early Warning ...... 167 3.3 Response ...... 168 3.4 Relief, Rehabilitation and Reconstruction ...... 168 3.5 Sustainable Development ...... 169
4. BASIC ELEMENTS OF A NATIONAL STRATEGY AND ACTION PLAN ...... 169 4.1 Government ...... 169 4.1.1 Land Use Planning and the Regulatory Framework ...... 170 4.1.2 Prevention...... 170 4.1.3 Preparedness (Early Warning Systems)...... 170 4.1.4 Response...... 170 4.1.5 Restoration ...... 171 4.1.6 Assembling a Fire Management System ...... 171 4.2 Best System and Practice ...... 172
5. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 172
REFERENCES ...... 175
156 1. INTRODUCTION
1. All countries in the Asia Pacific Region experience forest fires, although the extent of their impact may not get the same attention as those in Indonesia, which were dramatically captured on film. Every year, large areas of savannah and mixed forest grassland, particularly in the dry zones of central and northern Asia are affected by fires, but few reliable figures are available to document their extent, the losses incurred and effects. Agricultural land, vegetation and forest in the humid tropics, although less prone to burning, also experience large fires, with the most serious occurring in 1997/98 in South East Asia. They are also a permanent threat in the sub temperate and temperate zones of China where the Heilongjiang fire in particular burnt more than 1.85 million hectares in 1987.
2. Fire has for hundreds of years been viewed by many as an environmental horror Ð one of the disasters humans encounter at the hands of nature. It is linked to reduced soil fertility, destruction of biodiversity, global warming and damage to forest, land resources and human assets. These contentions however, fail to make important distinctions between the different types of fires, especially the wrong ones that occur in the wrong places (Corner House, 2000).
3. The majority of outbreaks around the world are a result of human activity. It has been estimated that annually, they burn up to 500 million hectares of woodland, open forest, tropical and sub-tropical savannah, 10 to 15 million hectares of boreal and temperate forest and 20 to 40 million hectares of tropical forest (Goldammer, 1995). Most of them are intentional and are meant to achieve an objective.
4. In late 1997 and early 1998, fires in South East Asia, South and Central America, Europe, Russia, China, Australia and the USA attracted international attention. A combination of dry conditions caused by El Niño and uncontrolled burning took their toll on the world’s forest. According to the UN, “unchecked land, bush and forest fires in various parts of the world are rapidly becoming a disaster of regional and global proportions,” (UNDAC, 1998).
5. In South East Asia, from Papua New Guinea in the east to Malaysia and Indonesia in the west, fires damaged hundreds of thousands of hectares of forest and other land. They were most intense in Indonesia, where in Java, Borneo, Sulawesi, Irian Jaya and Sumatra they destroyed more than 9.5 million hectares, of which 49 per cent, or 4,655,000 ha were forested. Their economic cost was estimated to be between US$ 5 and US$ 10 billion. At their height, the smoke from them stretched over one million square kilometres and adversely affected the health of 70 million people.
6. Other tropical forests were also burnt in 1997/98. In Brazil, an estimated 3.3 million hectares of land were destroyed, of which 1.5 million were rainforest in the northern Amazonian state of Roraima. In Mexico and Central America, a further 1.5 million hectares were burnt, affecting numerous ecological reserves and national
157 parks. Millions of people throughout the region, including those from southern United States suffered from smoke. Temperate forests were also razed. In the US and Canada, more than five million hectares were damaged. In Russia, the UN estimated that fires devastated 2 million hectares. The total for 1997 and 1998 was more than 22 million hectares, of which one third was non-forested and comprised mainly agricultural land.
7. Fires and their effects have caught the attention of national and international bodies, including, the United Nations and others. The United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in Rio noted the problems of forests and fires (SCBD, 1998):
“Forests worldwide are being threatened by uncontrolled degradation and conversion to other forms of land uses, influenced by increasing human needs; agricultural expansion; and environmentally harmful mismanagement, including, lack of forest fires control, ... “(United Nations, 1992) [Chapter 11, Para. 10]
8. This was reiterated in the Eleventh World Forestry Congress (Antalya, 1998). In its declaration, countries were asked to develop and implement policies and management practices aimed at minimising destructive wildfires on forestland. FAO has, for many years, provided information and technical assistance on them to its member countries and to the international community. Fire management and its related activities and impact are considered an integral part of conserving and sustaining natural resources.
9. Publicised fires and their seasons are commonly associated with severe droughts. Their effects on agriculture, the ecosystem and livelihood of people, make them vulnerable to the impact of fire and contribute to situations (dryness and fuel build up through vegetation stress and plant death) that intensify the spread and severity of more fires. It is difficult to separate the effects of fire and drought, as the two are inter-connected and fire outbreaks are related to the prevailing degree of dryness.
1.1 Definitions
1.1.1 Forest Fires
10. Many of those discussed and of concern in the Asia Pacific region are not “forest” ones, although they are often described as such. They occur primarily in non-forested areas including agricultural, degraded lands and fallows. Often such terrain is classified as forested land, even when they are no longer forested (Bowen and Borger, 2001).
11. Scientists, policy makers and resource managers have developed certain terminologies to describe fires occurring in vegetation. They encompass those in all vegetation types including forest, grassland, scrubland and agricultural land. Intentional
158 ones to achieve human objectives are termed controlled or prescribed burns. Accidental, escaped or deliberate ones without objectives are called wildfires (Schweithelm, 1998). The two key questions regarding vegetation fires that have not been adequately answered in most parts of the world relate to who started them and for what reasons. 12. It is important to know why people start fires so that they can be persuaded to change this practice. In most cases, they are deliberately lit to achieve a management purpose. There may actually be very few, if any, “uncontrolled” ones in South East Asia, except in extreme drought years when deliberate fires may exceed the boundaries set by those who light them (Box 1). In some cases, while desirable, there is little or no opportunity to alter the frequency, area burnt or location due to the motivations for starting them and the available alternatives (Moore, 2001).
Box 1: Some community responses and actions on fires (after Vayda 1999) include: Descriptions of swidden (ladang) cultivation identify the practices of felling trees in the area to be burnt, so that the fire will not spread to adjacent abandoned sites. Kantu’ Dayaks who rely on damp conditions in the surrounding forest create firebreaks as a protective measure when necessary and they sometimes also dig small ditches on the borders of swiddens. In 1997, some Dayak shifting cultivators did not dare burn at all until after the first rains had fallen. In some communities, traditional law (adat) imposes fines on those whose fire spread to cultivated swidden plots. In the village of Teluk Pandan which is within the boundary of East Kalimantan’s Kutai National Park, the following series of rules were imposed: ❑ Notify the village head of intention to burn, ❑ Presence of all able-bodied men armed with tools and other gear from households who need to burn and those of adjacent properties to stop the fire, once started, from going out of control, ❑ Landowners who need to burn must supply the necessary food and drinks, ❑ A compensation schedule varying with the type of property (e.g. orange trees, cocoa, other corps and personal property) damaged by escaped fires is imposed, ❑ The village head who experienced the 1982/83 fires, realised that they may recur at any time in the future, and thus recommended the setting up of these rules to the community, and ❑ An analysis of the distribution of hotspots by satellite imagery indicated that most areas used for traditional or shifting cultivation experience the lowest fire incidence (Stolle et. al., 1998). This suggests that fire management by such groups is reasonably effective.
159 1.1.2 Farmers
13. The agricultural sector comprises various communities, ranging from subsistence farmers or groups of them, those who produce crops for sale to smallholders and large-scale agro-industrial enterprises that provide raw materials for larger processing industries or for export. The latter is currently responsible for fires that burn across large areas for long periods (Anderson and Bowen, 2000). Those utilised by companies appear to be less well managed and tend to escape the intended burn area, especially during drought, windy conditions or both (Schweithelm, 1998).
14. Among the “myths” associated with forest fires, Bowen and Borger (2001) noted that small farmers are not responsible for most of the “damage” caused by them. In South Sumatra they, generally, cultivate their two to four hectares farms on a permanent rotational basis and use fire each year to clear grass and other vegetation from the fallow section of their land (Bowen and Borger, 2001). There is no effective or affordable alternative to this because of the shortage of labour, income for herbicides and machinery for other cultivation practices. This specific example illustrates the positive use of fire in the Asia Pacific region. It can thus be an appropriate and productive tool for farmers and larger agricultural producers.
15. The inter-relationship between humans, fire and vegetation is a complex one and has been the subject of many studies and reports (Jackson and Moore, 1998). While some fires are started for a purpose, very few of those occurring are properly planned, and controlled. The benefits of good land management and the cost of poor practices are too diffuse. The implications and impacts of fires remain unclear and poorly understood in most cases (Box 2).
1.1.3 Fire Disasters
16. Their impact on physical and social infrastructure is significant, while that on natural assets can be disastrous with dire consequences on human subsistence (Box 3). Although their scale in China (1987), Mongolia (1996) and Indonesia (1997/98) is in the “disaster” category, this is only a label used by the media. The fires of Greece (Xanthopolous, 2001) and the United States (Mutch, 2001) during 2000 were the most extensive and difficult experienced by both countries in fifty years. They were not regarded as “disasters” in many respects, except for their ecological impact and the cost incurred in extinguishing them.
17. However in fire management, there is no precise definition for the term “disaster” or the various stages of an outbreak. This is due partly to the fact that fire is more often than not an event and, only in some cases, a natural phenomenon. When utilised regularly, it can be a domestic necessity or an agricultural tool, but it can also be a negative force, or a combination of all these. They differ from other forms of disaster such as floods and earthquakes as they can occur on a regular basis and are directly man-made.
160 Box 2: People, Ecology and Fire Ð Complexities in the Landscape
In a fascinating study entitled ‘Man, fire and wild cattle in north Cambodia’, Charles H. Wharton (1966) concluded: ‘It would appear that fire in the northern plains of Cambodia has aided in the degradation of some soils and most of the vegetation cover over the area originally clothed by sub-humid climax forests. Fire seems, however, to be an essential factor in maintaining suitable large areas of savanna forest exploitable by both herbivores and by a very small population of hardy Cambodians.’
In another study Wharton (ca 1968) concluded that: ‘the living wild cattle of Southeast Asia appear intimately dependent on an environment which is, if not entirely created by man and fire, certainly maintained by these agencies.’ McNeely (1995) described how in Sumbawa, Indonesia, annual fires helped maintained its grasslands and were responsible for their conversion from forests. The regular burning brought about conditions that favoured animal grazing and, in particular, supported a larger wild herbivore population than without it. The result was beneficial to both local hunters and biodiversity. McNeely highlighted how government conservation programmes ‘prohibited burning the savannas and hunting the main game animals… This broke down a genuine symbiosis, which had proved sustainable over long periods of time.’
Box 3: The Scale and Impact of Fires (Glover and Jessup, 1998)
The following were the total damages that arose from them: Exceeded those assessed for purposes of legal liability in the Exxon Valdez and the Bhopal gas disasters combined, Exceeded the funding required to provide Indonesia’s 120 million rural poor with basic sanitation, water and sewerage services, More than doubled the total foreign aid received by Indonesia annually, Equalled ~2.5 per cent of Indonesia’s gross national product; Singapore’s tourism losses could have fully funded the country’s community chest which supported 50 charities for three years, and
Malaysia’s losses due to haze could have financed the nation’s social programmes for three years.
161 18. The focus on larger scale fires creates primarily a reactive approach which leads to untested and poorly prepared and conceived responses. Lesser or minor ones, outside the disaster profile, offer similar opportunities (to prevent, monitor, prepare, respond and recover from them) as major ones. They can be used as test cases and checked for efficiency and valid operational response. They are thus invaluable as they form the basis for communities to apply and refine their own understanding and approaches to fire management.
19. One viewpoint upholds that “disasters” that generate large-scale social impacts are not “natural” but distinctly man-made. Hewitt (1995) postulated that those experienced by some nations were caused by development initiatives and pressures that alter their resource base, social interaction and expose their vulnerability to such calamities
20. For the past few decades, man-made changes around the world have caused the environment to become more sensitive to fire (Colfer, forthcoming). For example, many areas that were humid tropical rain forests were altered by logging, conversion and encroachment by smallholders. This exploitation reduced the humidity which was previously higher when covered with vegetation. Wind is the most crucial weather variable in fires, followed by humidity, which comes second.
21. The “disaster” brought by fire is usually very small in geographical scale, but its effects on a single farm, individual farmer or village group can spell devastation. A combination of food shortages, financial stress, dislocation (forced or voluntary) and loss of social cohesion in the community may result (Vayda, 1999). This is much greater than the “disaster” scale, but does not necessarily retain world attention.
22. The public focus on fires is reactive and the resources made available to fight them are largely opportunistic driven (and mainly confined to expensive approaches). The long-term response should concentrate on the great number of unwanted ones that damage crops and other resources and have an adverse impact on victims. They are generally small; local in scale and in most circumstances can be easily contained.
2. EFFECT ON FOOD AND AGRICULTURE
23. Although vegetation fires in Asia impinge on local, national, regional and global air quality, biodiversity and economic resources, there is, on the whole, a lack of empirical data on their seasonal and spatial distribution (Jones, 1997). Some data is available from certain countries, but most is incomplete, thus making it difficult to provide a true picture of their annual extent in the region (Moore, 2001).
24. Similarly, the economic implication arising from them is often not assessed in a systematic manner. Despite the occurrence of very large ones worldwide in recent decades, there is no process to estimate their damage and impact on any basis. The only organised attempts in Asia and the Pacific were carried out in Indonesia by the Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia and the World Wide Fund for
162 Nature (WWF) Indonesia Program, the Indonesian State Ministry for Environment (BAPEDAL) with the United Nations Development Program (BAPEDAL & UNDP, 1998) and the Asian Development Bank National Planning Development Agency of Indonesia (BAPPENAS) (ADB & BAPPENAS, 1999). Other assessments are mainly superficial and, in many instances, prominent fires and severe fire years have not been studied for their consequences on agriculture. Research in these areas at the local level only gave some insight (Vayda 1999).
2.1 Direct Impacts
2.1.1 Agricultural Losses
25. Besides the above specific studies, the Global Fire Monitoring Centre country profiles (GFMC, 2000) and other sources (Schweithelm, 1998) contain little insight on how they affect agriculture.
26. The 1996 occurrences in Mongolia numbered more than 130, and they affected 300 million ha of forest area, 500 million ha of pastureland, and more than 371,000 inhabitants. Damage included five deaths, the destruction of 56 dwellings, 2,500 livestock, 30 winter animal shelters, 70 tonnes of hay and 10 wells (UNDP, 1996). An assessment of the 1996 and 1997 devastation highlighted the need to decentralize fire management, including the development of locally organised fire fighters and the implementation of an aggressive grassroots fire prevention/management programme (Wingard and Moody, 1998).
27. In India, the estimated 65 million people who depend on the collection of non-timber produce from forests for their livelihood suffered when fire destroyed these areas. During the summer of 1995, the hills fires of Uttar Pradesh & Himachal Pradesh were very severe and burnt an area of 677,700 ha. The quantifiable timber loss was approximately Rs 17.50 crores (US$ 43 million; Rs 1 crore = 10 million rupees). The loss of soil fertility, biodiversity and employment, soil erosion, and drying up of water sources was not calculated, but described as “immeasurable but very significant” (Bahuguna, undated).
28. Estimates of agricultural losses from the 1997/98 fires in Indonesia were based on production losses in terms of years of output (Ruitenbeek, 1999). The productivity values applied were assumed to be reflective of the land values. Large-scale palm oil plantations in Indonesia have a land value of US$ 1,000/ha, which is consistent with EEPSEA/WWF’s estimate of forestland at US$ 987/ha.
29. Smallholder land is priced at approximately US$ 400/ha. This probably understates the impact of fires. Most farmers depend on land for their subsistence and, besides having to bear the loss of basic needs, fires may force them to relocate and incur additional expenses. For example, the ones in East Kalimantan compelled many to seek alternative income generating activities such as gold panning (Colfer, 2001). Mussche (2001) noted the destruction of forestland by fire. It used to be a means of
163 livelihood, provided ecological services, and played a religious or cultural role. When destroyed, this potentially important supplement to farming is lost and recovery may, if at all possible, take some years.
30. A short-term intensive study was carried out in Indonesia as part of the Asian Development Bank Technical Assistance following the 1997/98 fires. Two provinces Ð Riau and East Kalimantan, were examined. The study interviewed those whose land was burnt and it indicated that for owner-operators, the average area burnt was 1.7 ha (Riau) and 6.1 ha (E. Kalimantan). The average for village land was much higher at 333.5 ha (Riau) and 231.1 ha (E. Kalimantan). The loss calculated for households was IDR 13,704,800 (US$ 1,700). Most was incurred for fruit trees (60%) and timber (21%). The remainder (10%) for households was for food crops, buildings (very few) and vehicles (very few).
31. These figures highlight the groups that suffer most frequently, namely, smallholders, individuals and communities. Although individual loss is fiscally small, it is crucial to those who are affected by it, and when assessed as a group, the total amount of damage can be very large. The fire affecting each area is also small, and by itself, is unlikely to be traumatic or life threatening.
32. More importantly, the damage to crops continues beyond the year of its occurrence, as lost ones are replaced, entailing both establishment cost and other efforts to ensure survival. Income from perennials may cease. The sufferings borne by the local people may not be measured in monetary terms, but they remain serious. When fires happen at a time when the tree crops mature and financial returns commence, both the new technology adopted and the six to ten years of work committed to them are wiped out. Under these circumstances, farmers become disheartened and confused, and in the case of Kalimantan, they leave their holdings after such calamities.
33. In Indonesia, the loss of estate crops including re-establishment and production losses were calculated at over US$ 300 million for an area of 90,856 ha (ADB & BAPPENAS, 1999). Affected crops included oil palm, rubber, coconut, coffee, sugar, cocoa and cashews. Larger companies may have insured their crops or possess the capacity to absorb losses (although this would be limited during the economic crisis that began in 1997). Damage of this scale remains a major difficulty for the agricultural industry. This results not only in direct losses, but disrupts both current and projected raw material flow.
34. There are many instances where smallholders form part of the growing supply chain for large enterprises. They are likely to face the same fate as independent farmers, but perhaps to a lesser degree because of their access to and support from the big companies.
164 2.1.2 Other Types of Losses
35. Some non-quantifiable but identifiable losses suffered include seeds for future crops that are destroyed when the immature ones are burnt. Potential reduction in photosynthesis activity is predicted (Glover and Jessup, 1997), and prices of food, consumables and other inputs necessary to re-establish and sustain farms increase during the post-fire or drought periods.
2.2 Indirect Impact
36. Forest fires destroy the watershed, cause erosion, degrade water quality and reduce its quantity. The combined depreciation (not only for agriculture) as a result of the 1997/98 Indonesian fires has been estimated at US$ 1,767 million (ADB & BAPPENAS, 1999).
37. By far, the bulk of the financial loss came from adverse health impacts such as persistent smoke, which can be severe (GTZ, 1998). It was the worst health hazard and prevalent in peat areas which were burnt to prepare for the establishment of agricultural crops, primarily oil palm (Wakker, 1998). An estimate of all those affected showed that those engaged directly or indirectly in agriculture were worst hit, but they may have been disproportionately represented for being sited close to the fires. Nearly 3 million lost working days were calculated to have cost more than US$ 17 million (ADB & BAPPENAS, 1999).
38. Infrastructure loss is often not severe, although extensive disruption to railway lines, roads (bridges) and power and communications transmission was experienced, notably in the 1987 fires in China (Smart et. al., 1998). Here, the destruction of agricultural processing facilities and dwellings was minimal, and this was also the case with the Heilongjiang fire, which was considered exceptional, in that only a number of small cities were burnt to the ground together with their associated infrastructure and industries.
39. Tourism although not related to agriculture is an important consideration, and it can be significantly affected, as was the case with the 1997/98 fires in Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia. The loss from reduced tourist visits was estimated at US$ 111 million (Glover and Jessup, 1997).
3. PROTECTING FARMLAND, FOREST AND LIVELIHOOD
40. No one blueprint can control harmful forest fires. Each situation has its own ecological, social, economic and political characteristics that require study when developing strategies to reduce the adverse effects on people and ecosystems. Efficient fire management demands the involvement of a number of concerned stakeholders (government, non-government, community and private sectors) in the planning and implementation stages.
165 41. Although many fires could have been prevented, they will continue to occur, have an impact on agriculture and degrade forest, as long as governments fail to thoroughly examine both the direct and indirect causes underlying their occurrence. In practice, this means the public sector must device programmes that influence people’s utilisation of them, for example, by enacting and enforcing laws that emphasise their prevention and ultimately change farmers’ attitudes towards their overall use.
42. Governments must ensure that their laws and policies are fair (i.e. there is equitable sharing of costs and benefits and a recognition of community-user rights), and remove perverse incentives that encourage people to start harmful fires. They must also practise sound fire management prior to the event by equipping natural resource managers with the skills and backing to gain a solid understanding of the role of fire in the environment and to develop the know-how to utilise it productively.
43. A growing population’s continued dependence on agriculture, forest, woodland and grassland resources, coupled with an uncertain future caused by climatic changes, give added importance to fire management. The following are three basic policy alternatives: (Landsberg, 1997).
a) Fire exclusion. It eliminates outbreaks from specific areas such as agricultural land that requires protection from them. This demands a well-developed infrastructure, trained firefighters, appropriate equipment and local co-operation. b) Absence of fire suppression. This is only applicable in some wild and protected areas. Under this option, fire is allowed to perform its natural role in the ecosystem. However, it is difficult in many parts of the world due to the presence of dense populations in or near forests, woodlands and grasslands, and because public opinion has been, and mainly still is, opposed to any fire in such terrain. c) Integrated fire management. It encompasses a number of components such as determining the objectives of the area, their inclusion in plans prepared to meet them and their implementation. It is important that community leaders and members of the public be involved in this exercise. Integrated and appropriate infrastructure needs to be in place so that the prevention of, preparation for, response to and recovery from fires can be co-ordinated on a suitable scale (local, provincial, national). Fire fighting crews, including the locals where necessary, should be equipped and trained (without automatically requiring outside assistance). An awareness campaign at the national, state, urban and rural levels to educate the population in preventive measures is equally crucial.
44. A fire management framework, to be successful, requires a clear understanding of needs and identification of steps to meet the desired aims. Many models and approaches have been evolved worldwide. A general one is illustrated in Attachment 1. They have, by various ways and with varying degrees of success, attempted to fit in
166 with national and local demands and resources. Here, the key role of the government is supervisory. The framework is best built from four discrete components; namely, prevention, preparedness (or pre-suppression), response (suppression) and recovery.
45. To be effective, its evolution requires the appropriate development of:
a) Methods that utilise the abilities of the local communities and component activities for fire prevention, pre-suppression and suppression, b) Mechanisms for inter-organisational co-operation between and among all those involved and affected, including individuals, c) Co-ordination prior to and during fires, and d) A national level action plan that appropriately oversees, integrates and standardises administrative procedures, training programmes, strategies, and equipment.
46. An essential first step when evaluating fires is to analyse clearly their context and causes (both direct and indirect), those affected and other interested parties to give a true picture of the “problem” (bearing in mind that there may be a few “uncontrolled” ones in various parts of the region). Other valuable information to support a further review includes a knowledge of their history, their social, ecological and economic implications, their intensity, spread rate and duration, their environmental vulnerability (which part of the landscape is sensitive to outbreaks), and an assessment of detection and suppression capabilities.
47. This work requires maps (on vegetation type, topography, land tenure, infrastructure, ignition distribution), tools to predict their behaviour and demographic information. They may not be available from all countries.
3.1 Prevention
48. It covers all measures that help deter outbreaks or assist in reducing them. A comprehensive prevention programme will need to employ professionals to minimise risks (lessen ignition), hazards (difficulties of tackling fires when they start), and damages (assets that may be affected). Enforcement personnel focus on risks, while engineers deal with hazards and exposures. They involve legislating laws that regulate fire use, exercising controls, promoting education programmes to raise awareness, training fire users, publishing a number of relevant guides and tools, and implementing fuel reduction mechanisms (e.g. by burning, grazing and other means), and fire containment features (e.g. roads, fire and fuel breaks, etc.).
3.2 Preparedness and Early Warning
49. Preparedness (pre-suppression) means taking the necessary actions to ensure that organisations are ready to carry out preventive measures. To succeed, there must
167 be management planning, monitoring of meteorological and fuel conditions, and early warning. Following an evaluation of conditions, the state of preparedness is identified and relevant steps taken. It also includes establishing, training and equipping fire management units. This means implementing the necessary communication network, creating a fire danger rating and public notification system, building appropriate detection and suppression resources and infrastructure, and having a competent management staff.
3.3 Response
50. It demands the adoption of appropriate methods that are the key factors to the successful containment of forest fires. Thus, it is essential that effective plans exist to handle them. The authorities concerned must be able to make the right decisions from the range of options available, i.e., know the ones to suppress, while allowing others to continue burning, have clear responsibilities and co-ordination mechanisms and the ability to accelerate measures to deal with abnormal ones. The public sector must lend support by making available the resources to successfully monitor them.
51. Response (also termed fire-fighting or suppression) is tantamount to controlling and terminating unwanted fires. It usually gets the most media coverage and is influenced public and political opinion. However, relevant reactions concentrate on mobilising plans, establishing operational responsibilities, procedures and management systems, and providing information access and decision support tools.
52. The response mechanism goes through four stages, namely, detecting and reporting an outbreak, followed by the first response, then containment and control and finally mopping up and patrolling until it is safe, i.e. the assurance that the fire will not re-ignite.
3.4 Relief, Rehabilitation and Reconstruction
53. After containment, there remains the need to prevent a spiral recurrence and further degradation in the short-term, and to help re-establish the original structure, biodiversity and productivity of the burnt land in the long-term. Failure to implement appropriate restoration strategies will result in vulnerable people living under even more precarious conditions. However, in reality, they are usually accorded little attention by the media, national governments and international organisations. They can, nevertheless, be achieved with the aid of damage assessment tools, recovery assistance plans, rehabilitation of infrastructure, community welfare assistance, and by reducing economic loss (e.g. by salvaging crops, replanting and repairing infrastructure), and undertaking environmental repair.
168 3.5 Sustainable Development
54. Although fires are regarded as environmental hazards, solutions to them are predominantly economic and social in nature. In many cases, they present a classic example of the failure to establish a balance between society and the environment. A fundamental goal of all national policy with respect to them is to create a range of practical options that can be implemented by both the public and private sectors.
55. Many laudable but superficial policies produce a number of negative side effects, one of which is the persistent recurrence of fires. Governments control national assets, including forests that are regarded as natural endowments. However poor management, weak enforcement and political risks can restrict market forces that may support sustainable natural resource use and health. Agencies with small budgets are often ill equipped to manage them efficiently, and this is reflected in the low priority given to them relative to industrialization and traditional development. Benefits derived from them may not reflect their true value and are thus treated as assets to be reinvested in “growth”.
56. The public and private sectors do not recognise that fires are a manifestation of policy, management and operational failure. Their successful management is warranted as they impinge on a nation’s progress, the livelihood of its people, biodiversity conservation and are linked to policy issues and development pressures. Governments, donors, and international NGOs must therefore come to terms with this need.
4. BASIC ELEMENTS OF A NATIONAL STRATEGY AND ACTION PLAN
57. Over the past two decades, fires in the Asia and Pacific region and elsewhere have brought about a series of efforts to produce guidelines and principles for national action. Those from Indonesia are an example (ITTO, 1999).
58. It appears logical that the components of a fire management system should be applicable from the local or district to the provincial level. The government plays a key part by providing the legislative and policy framework and the structures that make it possible for consistent implementation nationwide. More importantly, this will ensure that there are adequate resources to meet any outbreak. Many of the measures needed to contain fires are not inherently complex nor do they require excessive investment.
4.1 Government
59. Its over-reaching role is one of partnership, support, establishing standards, data collation, monitoring and co-ordination. The following is primarily its responsibility:
169 4.1.1 Land Use Planning and the Regulatory Framework
60. The problems associated with fires permeate all sectors of society. To solve them, policies governing natural resource use must be equipped to meet a series of interrelated and fundamental challenges. These include capacity building in integrated planning techniques, priority setting, recognition of informal property regimes, enforcement of land-use codes (if they are in place), and careful selection and monitoring of both small and large scale land use.
61. Sustainable development principles that relate to natural resource management must be incorporated into fire management systems in a practical and tested manner, by applying the lessons learned from case studies to develop both appropriate and adequate local and national policies. Those that emerge should be directed towards stopping the outright destruction of the environment and large-scale economic loss to society.
62. The institutional framework drawn up by governments should clearly identify the land tenure system, establish fire agencies, define their jurisdiction and responsibilities and identify funding and co-ordinating arrangements for them.
4.1.2 Prevention
63. It should incorporate guidelines, have a consistent approach and the central government should be totally committed and take the lead. In short, its core role is to educate, legislate, enforce, plan, develop and finally implement adequate measures that will prevent fires. This means working in unity with the provincial and local governments and other stakeholders.
4.1.3 Preparedness (Early Warning Systems)
64. The local and provincial level government in partnership with other stakeholders are more often the relevant authorities that can prepare for outbreaks. The central government is only involved on an occasional basis, such as monitoring and predicting climate and weather conditions. The main role of the provincial and local government and other stakeholders is to mobilise and co-ordinate plans, utilise the mass media to give early warning, establish fire danger rating systems and means of public notification, provide fire detection, suppression and communication resources and infrastructure, and introduce fire training systems and tools (to ensure a competent fire management team).
4.1.4 Response
65. The initial response is entirely localised. When the local authority is unable to handle the situation, district, provincial and national involvement will be needed. In extreme or unusual circumstances, international support may also be required.
170 66. To effectively respond, the provincial and local government and other stakeholders must be able to mobilise plans including response triggers and levels, conduct operations and procedures, provide information access and decision support tools, and enforce management systems (command and control of fire-fighting and other resources).
4.1.5 Restoration
67. As with response, it is also primarily a local responsibility. Technical and administrative planning is at district, provincial or national levels, but all levels are responsible for the provision of damage assessment tools, recovery plans and infrastructure, and community welfare assistance.
68. The provincial and local government and other stakeholders are responsible for reducing economic loss (e.g. salvaging crops, replanting and infrastructure repair), and environmental repair.
4.1.6 Assembling a Fire Management System
69. Prior to developing a fire management system, it is recommended that an analysis be undertaken to ascertain the cause of fires, their locations, define the appropriate levels of fire response and use, and develop danger rating systems to support planning and operations.
70. This achievement depends to a large extent on the collection of fire data that enhances our perception of outbreaks. There are, at present, in the Asia Pacific region some sound analyses of fires from satellite data (Anderson and Bowen, 2000). Although these and other efforts are timely, their relevance is limited in the absence of local data, thus restricting further progress and development to mitigate fire disasters.
71. The process of collecting relevant data has been addressed many times and for many years by a great number of people with the relevant interest and expertise. Among them are experts from the FAO and the International Tropical Timber Organisation. The suggestions for consistent and standardised collection of core data by countries have been put forward as recommendations to FAO (1999), ITTO (1997) and the Consultative Group on Indonesian Forests (Dieterle, 1997) among others.
72. However none of the proposals made by international organisations have been implemented. The potential importance of the information to all the affected and responsible stakeholders should be made known and opportunities given to demonstrate the value of collecting simple sets of data on fires. Governments must take the initiative here.
171 4.2 Best System and Practice
73. Many large-scale plantation and agricultural industries have, on their own, evolved effective systems of fire use (Cheng Hai, 2000). In some cases this has resulted in practices that no longer use open burning (Golden Hope Plantations, nd). The active involvement of the private sector in developing and improving them is highly desirable. Their transfer to all those who require them should be supported by all stakeholders.
74. Participation by the local people, who usually possess abundant indigenous knowledge, can be considered mandatory for successful fire and natural resource management. Their involvement should be encouraged and rewarded. A good understanding of the nation’s socio-economic fabric is essential for continuous interaction and feedback. Traditional know-how may be supported by “scientific” knowledge and the blending of both may be necessary to achieve the desired goals. The technical expertise, scientific knowledge, international perspective, and financial resources required to realise them may, initially, require outside expertise that is often funded by a third party. Intervention therefore amounts to a process of negotiation with both experts and the community, with the latter perhaps restricted by ecological reality and the former constrained by socio-economic and political reality.
75. Community based management to prevent, prepare, respond and recover from fires is a potentially effective model to consider (Ganz et. al., 2001). Support from the government and community sectors is mainly through existing structures and agencies, rather than large capital investment or heavy resource commitment. Examples can be found in Lao (London, in press), Vietnam (van Chieu, in press), Mongolia (Ing, 2000), Indonesia (Abberger, in press), Thailand (Hoare, 1999), India (Sehgal, in press; Kumar, in press) and the Philippines (Castillo, in press).
76. Local level initiatives alone will not have sufficient clout to introduce national-level policy reforms. A national framework will be necessary to have the desired leverage and to sustain its existence. Notably, natural resource management, and therefore fire management, is linked to economic valuation and the challenge is in balancing social, economic and environmental demands.
5. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
77. Without a comprehensive package of policies and legal and institutional backing, fires cannot be effectively controlled and their impact on agriculture managed. An understanding of the interlocking socio-economic and human issues that surround them and the environment and the needs of various stakeholders is a key starting point (SCBD, 1998). To attain this, two initial steps conducted by an inter-disciplinary team that incorporate specific agricultural and vegetation fire expertise are essential. First, an assessment of the magnitude of the problem in collaboration with concerned stakeholders by carefully analysing available information, with the aim of providing an accurate annotation of the cost implications of forest and vegetation fires, including
172 major social, economic and environmental impacts, and identification of critical/priority provinces and areas. The second is a comprehensive review of policies, laws and regulations and institutional arrangements that are related to fires. This should be complemented by a stock-take of proven technologies and policy instruments. Based on such an assessment, policy options could be drawn up and an agenda on technology transfer at regional and national levels and capacity building assistance could be evolved.
78. The following are additional recommendations to address the issue of the impact of fires on agriculture:
a) Develop land-use laws that permit sensible but discourage their reckless use, b) Review those and economic conditions that directly result in harmful forest fires, c) Put in place reliable monitoring systems that include the ecological and human effects of fire, and report them annually in an internationally acceptable manner, d) Involve key stakeholders (especially local communities and land managers) in forest and fire management planning and, where appropriate, implementation. If necessary, assist them obtain the knowledge, skills and resources they need to participate effectively, e) Mandate and equip natural resource managers, in partnership with communities and relevant stakeholders to promote a balance between fire prevention, response and restoration, and discourage strategies that rely too heavily on fire-fighting as the primary means of dealing with forest fires, f) Build awareness among policy makers, the public and the media as to the underlying causes of such fires, their associated social and economic costs and the importance of handling them in an organised manner, and g) Support research that improves the country’s understanding of them and allocate resources to enhance comprehension of country-specific cases.
173 Attachment 1: A Generalised Fire Management System
A Fire Management Ð A Systematic Approach
System Tools System Process Components
FIRE PROBLEM ANALYSIS (Risk assessment)
Maps (vegetation type, topography, land tenure, assets, roads, landscape features, 1. Fire Likelihood Ignition history ignition distribution etc.) 2. Consequence of Fire on Assets Fire behaviour prediction tools Economic Intensity Value Spatial databases Social Spread rate Vulnerability Environmental Duration Demographic information Management Objectives
FIRE MANAGEMENT PLANNING Fire use laws/regulations, enforcement programmes Prevention Strategies Planning controls ❑ Regulate fire use, educate fire users, technology improvements, development planning controls Education programmes Mitigation Strategies Fire behaviour guides, ignition and ❑ Fuel reduction (e.g. by burning, grazing & other means) control resources, planning and ❑ Reduce asset vulnerability (e.g. through building reporting tools. construction standards) Firebreak construction guides ❑ Establish/maintain containment features (e.g. roads, fire Building construction codes and fuel breaks etc.) Preparedness Strategies Climate and weather monitoring & ❑ Early warning/predictive systems prediction ❑ Community warning mechanisms Fire Danger Rating system. ❑ Detection and response infrastructure FDR public notification means. ❑ Communications systems Detection & suppression resource needs ❑ Mobilisation & co-ordination plans assessment. ❑ Competent fire control staff Fire detection, suppression & communications resources. Response Strategies Fire training systems and tools ❑ Response triggers and levels Response mobilisation plans Operational Plans
Operational responsibilities and FIRE CONTROL OPERATIONS procedures. Detection and Reporting Strategic information access tools First Response Decision support tools Containment and Control Operational management systems Mop Up and Patrol Command and Control
Fire Damage/Loss
Damage assessment tools POST FIRE RECOVERY Recovery assistance plans and Community Welfare assistance infrastructure Economic loss reduction (e.g. salvage logging and replanting, infrastructure repair) Environmental repair
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179 (180 blank) Annex X APDC/01/6
PASTORAL RISK MANAGEMENT FOR DISASTER PREVENTION AND PREPAREDNESS IN CENTRAL ASIA WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO THE CASE OF MONGOLIA*
ABSTRACT
Pastoral production systems are important for the economies of Central Asia, but face high levels of variability and risk from environmental, as well as socio-economic and institutional causes. The most obvious risk for pastoral livestock keepers comes from periodic snow disasters, which cause high animal and human mortality. An indicator of the importance of this issue are the most recent examples of snow disasters in the winters of 1999/2000 and 2000/2001 in Mongolia, which led to losses of several million animals. Over 2,370 herding households lost all of their livestock in the winter of 1999/2000. The number of households with less than 10 animals increased by over 10,000 thus severely threatening their livelihoods and food security. However, few of the countries of Central Asia have developed adequate strategies, policies and institutions to deal explicitly with risk preparedness and management. This paper synthesizes the results of field work conducted by the Rural Institutions and Participation Service of FAO since 1995. The research focused on institutional approaches to pastoral risk management in Mongolia, China and Kyrgyzstan, within the broader context of poverty alleviation and food insecurity. This paper begins by outlining a conceptual approach that was developed to assess risk management strategies in pastoral areas of Central Asia. Drawing on five years of research findings and using recent case material from Mongolia as an example, the paper then proposes a framework for improved risk management planning. Components and institutional mechanisms essential for a comprehensive risk management strategy in pastoral areas are elaborated, with greatest attention given to risk preparedness.
* Prepared by Stephan Baas, Rural Institutions and Participation Service, FAO; Erdenebatar Batjargal, Agricultural State University, Ulanbator, Mongolia; and Jeremy Swift, Institute of Development Studies (IDS), Sussex, UK.
181 CONTENTS
Page 1. INTRODUCTION ...... 183
2. APPROACHING PASTORAL RISK MANAGEMENT IN CENTRAL ASIA ...... 185 2.1 Defining pastoral risk ...... 185 2.2 A typology of major risks faced by pastoralists ...... 185
3. CASE SMAPLE MONGOLIA Ð THE RISK OF “ZUD”...... 188 3.1 The nature and dimension of the 1999/2000 zud...... 189 3.2 Lessons learned from the 1999/2000 “zud” ...... 189
4. A FRAMEWORK FOR IMPROVED RISK MANAGEMENT PLANNING ...... 194 4.1 Phases of risk management ...... 194 4.2 Key aspects of improved risk management ...... 195
5. FINAL REMARKS AND CONCLUSIONS...... 201
REFERENCES ...... 206
182 1. INTRODUCTION
1. Extensive pastoralism plays a key role in the rural economies of most Central Asian countries. It is a key economic adaptation of using under harsh climatic conditions (long and very cold winters and dry summers), the vast grassland areas, mountains and desert steppes, involving large numbers of people, occupying extensive land areas and making a significant contribution to the national economy. In addition, contrary to the trend in other parts of the world, there has been an increase in the number of people engaged in extensive pastoralism since decollectivization in several countries in Central Asia, as economic adjustment takes place, subsidized industrial and agricultural enterprises fail, and the artificial urban economies promoted by central planning falter.
2. In Mongolia, pastoralism employs between 1/3 and 1/2 of the national population and its output constitutes 1/3 of the GDP and 1/4 of export earnings. In Kyrgyzstan, mobile livestock keeping employs 1/4 of the agricultural population. Pastoralism does not play a large part in the Chinese economy as a whole, but in several provinces and autonomous regions Ðespecially Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Tibet and Qinghai Ð extensive pastoralism is the main economic activity of millions of people and a substantial proportion of China’s livestock (in 1990, 22 per cent of all large livestock, and 37 per cent of all sheep and goats) are raised under pastoral conditions. Therefore, the development of pastoral economies in these areas is a key to poverty alleviation and improved food security, as well as to the wider goal of creating sustainable livelihoods.
3. In spite of their importance pastoral production systems in Central Asia are, however, also subject to high levels of variability and risk mainly from environmental, but also from socio-economic and institutional causes. The most obvious risk for pastoral livestock keepers comes from periodic snow disasters, which cause high animal and human mortality. The most recent examples of snow disasters causing major damage in Central Asia occurred during Mongolia in the winters of 1999/2000 and 2000/2001 associated with continued summer droughts. The harsh winters with extended snowstorms and long spells of cold came at a time when risk preparedness and management strategies were almost non-existent. An estimated 2.4 million animals died during the 1999/2000 winter. More than 2,000 herding households lost all their livestock and were thus pushed into poverty. The damages of the 2000/01 winter had not yet been fully assessed at the moment of writing this paper, but in March 2001 over 2 million animals had already died and many more were expected to die later in spring 1 .
1 Other disasters on record in Mongolia were the winter of 1944/45, when a zud killed 8.1 million animals; in 1993, 1.6 million animals were lost to zud. The same phenomenon of snow disasters is common also in other Central Asian countries. In Northwest China the high risks for the environment and production are well documented by the particularly cold winter of 1997/98 which witnessed, for instance, in Dari county, Quinghai, temperatures below -35oC for more than a month. Severe dislocations and heavy animal losses were recorded: 1,400 people, and 330,000 animals, had to make emergency moves away from the worst affected areas; over 900 animals froze to death, and nearly 12,000 died of starvation.
183 4. In addition to the direct impact on animal and human mortality, snow and other risks undermine pastoral development strategies, and are major causes of rural and urban poverty. Pastoral development will have to start anew every few years if risks are not better managed, thus reducing the effects of disasters. 5. The vulnerability of pastoral households to risks has substantially increased since decollectivization in Mongolia, China and the Central Asian countries of the former USSR. In the past, pastoral societies in the region had a range of coping mechanisms, based on customary institutions before and on state institutions2 during the socialist period, to limit the damages suffered by individual households as a result of shocks, and to reinsert impoverished households into a viable production process. However, transition governments can no longer afford the wide range of previously subsidized services. In Mongolia and Kyrgyzstan, with the liberalization of the economy starting in the early 1990s, the following changes have occurred: the employment guarantee has been removed, price control of many basic foodstuffs has been removed, the automatic resupply of collectively owned animals to households with insufficient herds has been discontinued, subsidized emergency fodder supplies no longer exist, cost-recovery for most services has been introduced, and social security guarantees have been reduced. Changes in China Ð marked by the introduction of livestock management contracts in 1983 and pasture management contracts in 1994 Ð have been less drastic, but have had a similar effect. This has meant a de facto increase in risk exposure of herding households3 . However, none of the countries of Central Asia has yet developed adequate strategies, policies and institutions dealing explicitly with risk preparedness and management. The recent example of Mongolia dramatically proves that gap: no pastoral risk management policy or strategy enacted by government existed, and the disaster situation Ð as will be shown later in this paper Ð was tackled only in an ad hoc manner. 6. This paper synthetizes the results of field work conducted since 1995 in Mongolia, China and Kyrgyzstan on institutional approaches to pastoral risk management in Central Asia, within the wider context of poverty alleviation and food insecurity4 . Taking the recent experience of Mongolia as an example, it proposes
2 During collectivization of the herding economies of the CA region from the 1920s and 1930s in the republics of the former Soviet Union, and from the 1950s in Mongolia and China, substantial safety nets were institutionalized through herding collectives which provided: employment guarantee, provision of basic non-pastoral foodstuffs at controlled prices; restocking with collectively-owned animals in case of loss; collective livestock insurance against accidental loss; collective provision of free services, such as human and veterinary health and education, including emergency fodder provision; a comprehensive system of social security, including pensions and other social security payments. During that period local community driven risk coping mechanisms lost importance and weakened. 3 The tables in Annex 1 provide the results on Changing risk responsibility in China and Kyrgyzstan following liberalization as assessed during field studies in 1998. 4 This work was conducted by the Rural Institutions and Participation Service (SDAR) of FAO in close collaboration with the Institute of Development Studies, Sussex UK, the Research and Training Institute for Animal Husbandry (RIAH), Ulanbator, Mongolia, the Center for Integrated Agricultural Development (CIAD), China Agricultural University Beijing, China, the Centre for Social Research, (CSR), Academy of Science of the Kyrgyz Republic, and the Social and Economic Research Associates, (SERA), London.
184 components and institutional mechanisms for mitigating risks and better preparedness in disaster situations, which are regularly faced by pastoral households and economies.
2. APPROACHING PASTORAL RISK MANAGEMENT IN CENTRAL ASIA
7. The following chapters outline the most important aspects, facets and dimensions for approaching systematically the issue of pastoral risk and risk management. They emphasize the different perspectives required to gain a comprehensive understanding of the complexity of risk management.
2.1 Defining pastoral risk
8. Risk is the subject of a large and rapidly growing literature. Risk in general terms refers to the occurrence of uncertain events or processes which jeopardize people’s well being and can be expected to happen at any time. The classic conception distinguishes between risk Ð defined as the probability that a particular adverse event will occur during a certain period of time, or as the result of a particular challenge Ð and damageÐ defined as a numerical measure of the expected harm or loss associated with an adverse event. The literature further distinguishes between objective risk and damage Ð past and likely future occurrence of risk and damage measured by experts Ð and perceived risk and damageÐ the way in which people anticipate future events or view past ones. Once heavy damage is caused as a result of a sudden unforeseen or foreseeable event (often referred to as ‘shock’), a disaster situation arises.
2.2 A typology of major risks faced by pastoralists
9. Risks threatening pastoral production systems have different origins. Risk can be categorized in various ways. A functional typology5 gives four main categories whereas the first category is by far the most threatening.
1. Environmental arising from snow disaster, continuous low temperatures, drought, fire, predation (especially wolves), damage cased to the vegetation by large rodents with a consequent reduction of grassland bio-mass production, heavy spring rains; 2. Economic deriving from: animal theft, market failure (household terms of trade, shock, collapse of marketing channels), structural adjustment, animal disease, lack of restocking capacity after disasters and epidemic diseases, human illness, conflicts between communities and regions regarding access to
5 Alternative ways of categorizing risks become useful once solutions and mechanisms for coordinated risk planning and management are sought. An important criterion at that stage may be the geographical scope of measures, operational entities, collaborative networks, etc., and responsibilities in risk management.
185 grassland resources, and increasing poverty faced by the herders; 3. Institutional increasing institutional corruption as a result of shrinking resources, reduced institutional planning, coordination and implementation capacities, declining government services, institutional vacuums at local level after the breakdown of collective structures, “beneficiary mentality” at local level; 4. Political declining governmental resources while there is an increasing trend in the occurrence of risks, political instability, vacuums or unclear legal frameworks, no alternative source of legitimate authority, political risk may turn into open, even armed conflict, banditry or a general breakdown in law, and change in macro-economic policies.
10. The different types of risks are inter-related and often occur at the same time or as consequence of each other: for example, snow disaster may weaken surviving animals, making them particularly susceptible to heavy spring rains, associated with heavy storms when the animals are sheared or without wool protection. Different risks can also occur in combinations: the risk of economic losses caused by drought, for example, is likely to be higher in a remote area far away from big livestock markets, where spontaneous selling of animals (as an economic coping mechanism) is more difficult. Different ecological or geographic zones may have characteristic risk features: for example, areas close to markets are much less likely to suffer from market risk than remote hinterlands, but they may be more susceptible to animal theft.
2.2.1 The levels of risks
11. Further classification of risks by levels is critical since there are no specific response systems to deal with single types of risks. Risks can occur at the micro, meso or macro level. They may affect individual households only (referred to as idiosyncratic or individual risks, at micro level), or all households in a given area (covariate risks, at meso level). Snow disasters or market collapse are covariate risks, affecting everyone in the area. Animal theft, predation or illness are generally risks faced by individuals.
12. The ability of herding households to help neighbours or kin to prepare against and/or recover from risk depends in part on the type of risk: in the case of individual risk, other households may be able to help, but in the case of covariate risk, everyone is in the same situation, and cannot. In terms of managing risk, the State (often supported externally) has in general a comparative advantage and is highly demanded to assist in and/or cover covariate risks, whereas most individual risks may be better handled by local communities, groups or individuals themselves. It is generally accepted in advanced economies that the coverage of major covariate risks is a public service that should be provided by government, while idiosyncratic risk is generally covered by individuals and the private sector.
186 2.2.2 Cultural, economic and ecological construction of risk
13. Risk is not just a series of random events striking unwary populations. Risk is culturally constructed. People in risk-prone zones, such as pastoral areas, experience risk and anticipate it in various ways depending on prior experiences, how they expect others to behave (especially their own kinship or residential community and public authorities), and on their resources and objectives. Different stakeholders in rural/ pastoral development perceive risks in different ways. In addition, their responses to a variety of ecological conditions involving the same type of risk will lead to different outcomes.
14. Herders’ attitudes to risk and their perception of the probability and magnitude of future adverse events, are partly shaped by their previous experience of risk and its outcomes, e.g. their expectations of the respective roles of government versus the local community in helping risk victims. Based on experience, these attitudes are continuously modified throughout their life. Different categories of herders perceive risks in different ways. Their perceptions are determined by a range of variables, including:
● wealth: rich herders perceive and can react to risks differently than poor herders;
● labour: herders with plentiful labour perceive and can react to risks differently that labour-scarce households; household life cycle stage is especially important in determining what any particular risk means for a particular household;
● species herded: herders of drought or snow-resistant species can afford to face the risk of drought or extreme snowfall in a different way than herders of more vulnerable species;
● ecological conditions and opportunities: herders with access to emergency reserves, if they exist, do not need to take the burden of long emergency moves;
● social security/networks/social capital: herders who have access to social services or insurance, belong to strong networks, large multi-generational families or cooperatives with good leadership, perceive and can react differently to risks than isolated households or households without such social capital;
● links to urban areas and to public administration: a particularly important category of social capital for Central Asian pastoralists in risk perception and management is constituted by kinship, patronage or economic links to the urban economy or to public administration, since this provides a strong safety net in the case of hardships.
15. The studies carried out in 1998/99 among herders and officials in Qinghai, China, provide a good example of how risk is perceived by different stakeholders.
187 Though all stakeholders confirmed the overwhelming threat resulting from heavy snowstorms, the perceptions of the different stakeholder groups regarding the importance of different types of risks to pastoral livelihoods varied significantly, as shown in the table below. Snow storms were ranked as the greatest risk, with animal thefts next, followed by wolf predation; animal disease was ranked least important, as it was considered to be under control. County and township officials who had no animals of their own ranked animal disease as the second most important risk, and animal theft least important. However, officials who had animals of their own ranked the risks in the same order as the herders. These different perceptions have important implications for policy making.
16. Risk management strategies to tackle those risks perceived as the most threatening are most likely to be supported and adopted by local stakeholders, and thus provide good entry points for interventions and the mobilization of self-help initiatives.
Risk perception by herders and officials in Dari County, China county/township officials Risk Herders* with own herd without own herd snow storms 1 1 1 animal theft 2 2 4 wolf predation 3 3 3 animal disease 4 4 2 Note: *Average of six surveys.
3. CASE SAMPLE MONGOLIA Ð THE RISK OF “ZUD”
17. “Zud” is ranked as the greatest risk by most herders in Central Asia. Definitions of zud vary. In Mongolia, the meteorological service defines zud as a snow cover of more than 25cm, a sudden, prolonged snowstorm, 2-3cm of frozen snow cover , or extreme prolonged spells of cold. As can be expected, herders have a rich vocabulary to describe and analyze zud. The main criteria are not so much the snow cover itself, as its consequences, especially in terms of animal mortality. A serious zud is one during which heavy snow freezes to a permanent ice cover which prevents the animals from grazing. Zuds are also defined by their geographic coverage (a single valley or a whole ecological or administrative zone), and by their duration (heavy zuds exceed 20 days). Mongolian herders also classify several types of zud: black zud, which does not involve snow at all, but is the freezing of surface water, which makes it inaccessible to the animals; white zud, the classic snow disaster; storm zud, when a severe snow storm lasts for several days, forming deep drifts and driving the animals down-wind where they go astray; and freezing zud, when the temperature is so low that people and animals cannot maintain their body temperature, and die of cold.
188 3.1 The nature and dimension of the 1999/2000 zud
18. From a meteorological point of view the 1999/2000 “zud” had its roots in the previous year when the country faced a severe drought. Exhausted animals had to go through a dry summer in 1999 without the possibility of developing the necessary fat to withstand the cold winter. The dry summer also prevented haymaking. First heavy snowfalls in some areas were recorded in the first days of September-October, which was much earlier than in normal years. The early, heavy snowfall was followed by exceptional warm days in November and December 1999. During these warm days, the snow cover melted and hardened creating an ice cover on pastures which hindered animal grazing. At the same time, the snow cover increased regularly. The extremely cold days in January-February 2000 worsened the situation created by the deep snow, which prevented animals from grazing almost completely.
19. Official statistics suggest that the natural disasters that occurred in Mongolia in 1999/2000 covered 13 provinces out of 21 and 157 districts of 310, which is about 70per cent of Mongolia’ s land area. In general, 452,000 people from 80,900 herding households herding 7million head of livestock were af fected to some extent by the 1999/2000 winter-spring zud. One of the specific patterns of these disasters was that the zud affected the most vulnerable areas: the Gobi, the steppe and the high, treeless mountains, where the availability of pasture and forage is limited by such ecological factors as low rainfall, low grass growth and high fluctuations in weather conditions.
20. At the national level, the total loss in terms of monetary value amounted to 91.7billion Tugriks (the official exchange rate, May 2001: 1 US$ = 1,091 Tugrik). As of 1 June 2000, total livestock loss amounted to 2.4 million heads, i.e. almost 10per cent of the total national herd. Over 2,370 herding households lost all their livestock and the number of households with less than 10 animals increased by over 10,000.
21. The disasters clearly demonstrated that the zud is the worst natural disaster in Mongolia, and is almost of equal importance to herding societies as droughts in other pastoral areas.
3.2 Lessons learned from the 1999/2000 “zud”
22. Retrospective analysis of 1999/2000 provides the following picture of several main causes that in combination caused high vulnerability and hardship for Mongolian herders.
A. Constraints and shortcomings regarding risk preparedness
23. Unclear responsibilities about risk management: After transition, the Mongolian authorities assumed that the privatization of livestock and their distribution into private hands would lead to better management and increased risk-mitigation
189 practices at decentralized levels. In conjunction with the privatization of livestock the State decided to shift major risk management responsibilities previously held by the State and cooperatives to individual livestock keepers. However, many herders still believe that the government should continue to provide risk management related services and act in the same way as during the centrally planned economy. In that sense there has been a misjudgement of the responsibilities of two major actors in the management of natural and related risks.
24. Unclear information strategy: Herders report that during the summer 1999, the government had announced its readiness and willingness to support the herding population in the case of emergencies. Herders assumed therefore that the government would provide help as the negdels (state co-operatives) did in the past.
25. Lack of decentralized fodder reserves: No permanent fodder reserves were available at decentralized level to provide supplementary fodder during emergency situations6 . High input prices and maintenance costs are the main reasons why the previously existing reserves were abandoned.
26. Exceedingly centralized emergency reserves: Some unofficial sources suggest that in 1999/2000 over 60per cent of all assistance and aid came from reserves in the central part of the country. This type of localization of important resources and coordination of their distribution added unnecessary costs to the initial prices which were unaffordable to many zud-affected herders. A quick survey7 in Uvs province identified the price of a 25kg hay bale transported from the central part (Selenge and Bulgan provinces) as 3,800-4,200 Tugriks (the official exchange rate, May 2001: 1 US$ = 1,091 Tugrik), while the same bale arriving from Bayanulgii province cost only 2,400T ugriks.
27. Lack of local preparedness: Herders lacked basic items during the “zud”, such as hay, minerals and sufficient amounts of manufactured and hand-made feed. This led to huge demands for external assistance over short periods of time, which it was impossible to provide.
28. Lack of a clear government plans to respond to emergencies: There were no clear and consistent government regulations indicating under what conditions the State would provide assistance and/or coordinate assistance received from donors and NGOs.
29. Lack of common definitions of natural disasters: A common tendency was observed that once snowfall had occurred, local administrations were urging to declare a “zud” in their territories and immediately requested higher authorities to give them
6 In Mongolia, the State Emergency Fodder Fund (SEFF) had been operational before liberalizations in all 22 provinces, with a total of 69 emergency fodder stores. By the late 1990s, responsibility, but no funds, were shifted from the central government to provincial authorities; in 2000 only two SEFFs were reported as being operational. As a result, there are insufficient emergency fodder reserves, making snow disasters much more dangerous. 7 Done by one of the authors.
190 access to the reserves and/or aid packages before the others. Consequently, local governments applied their own judgement Ð often varying from each other Ð in declaring the severity of the risk.
30. Unclear rules and procedures to declare emergency situations: The above shortcoming made it very difficult to differentiate between the severity of disaster situations and led to another set of problems. The only means to verify a disaster applied by the government was to field their staff to see and understand what had happened, and to decide what to do. Local representatives were not allowed to declare an emergency until the situation was verified by province, or sometimes district administration. This procedure tied the hands of the local authorities to act quickly enough to prevent desperate situations. People were urged to inform the authorities before taking action to mobilize their own reserves and resources.
31. Lack of early warning systems: No unified and integrated early warning systems to predict natural disasters were in place. Local meteorological stations played only a minor role in information dissemination. Most of the information flowed from district to province administration and from there to the centre. No further verifications or assessments were carried out by central government institutions.
32. Insufficient use of long-term weather forecasts: The reliability of long-term weather forecasting is still weak and was not properly used for disaster planning and risk assessment purposes.
33. Wrong timing of surveys and field assessment: Some international agencies conducted surveys in early winter to assess if there were food shortages or starvation among the rural population, including those in zud-affected areas. It is known that early winter is the only time when all Mongolian households, if not extremely poor or socially disadvantaged, enjoy peak consumption of winter food.
B. Constraints and shortcomings observed during emergency relief operations
34. Lack of coordinated system for nation-wide disaster relief planning: The information received from local administrations was often inaccurate and not up-to- date. This caused serious difficulties in operational planning and the delivery of aid to the zud-affected areas.
35. Delay in the provision of aid: This was one of the main issues of the extensive discussions that emerged among all the people involved: from herders to government officials. For example, the main bulk of assistance arrived in February 2000 when the disasters had already caused all the damage: high animal mortality, abortions, and death from freezing, as well as human starvation, including shortages of medicines, clothes and food.
191 36. Poor local coordination of aid distribution: Many herders and people who were in need of external assistance criticise the distribution of all kinds of goods as exceptionally poor. This is again connected with the lack of local preparedness and the high demands placed on such poor, local capacity. In some cases, aid shipments were either delayed or insufficient to meet and satisfy the requirements. Local governments had neither clearly identified nor planned the requirements. Instead there was a rush for everything without any differentiation between the various goods: food, fodder, medicines and other. On the other hand, the coordinating agencies distributed what they had at hand almost without planning for the next steps to be taken.
37. Very few measures were directed to long-term needs and sustainable post-shock recovery of herding households badly affected by the zud.
38. Ignoring of refugee herding households: Herders normally move from their area to another (communities, districts and provinces) to escape disasters. Traditionally, high-standing bodies of province and district administration negotiate the sharing of grazing resources with (disaster induced) refugee migrants. However, in the zud situation 1999/2000, such negotiations, if materialized at all, hardly covered any other needs which migrant refugees have Ð such as ensuring equal access to aid assistance and other inputs and the provision of social, commercial, health and education services.
39. Delivery of inappropriate goods: The delivery of items in large quantities as pursued by local distribution agents made them often close their eyes to whether the items were actually needed. In addition, distribution was not always correct and some people benefited more than others. For some households the aid obtained was, reportedly, barely enough to support them for less than a week.
40. Lacking continuity of assistance: The small quantities of fodder assistance failed to provide any real support to herders. Many herders and people had to wait for the next instalment for weeks or longer, while starvation was becoming serious and worse.
41. Different eligibility and inconsistent aid eligibility criteria: Eligibility to benefit from assistance and aid was one of the basic issues that was continuously and controversially discussed during the emergency. This was the case of national and international NGOs and other voluntary groups that used a variety of social status-based approaches and different schemes for the selection of beneficiary households: poverty, input development, human support, improved health and temporary zud-relief. These sometimes led to overlaps and ignorance, as well.
C. Government responses initiated after the 1999/2000 zud
Lessons learnt related to poor preparedness:
42. The central and provincial governments issued orders to local governments at lower level to implement measures to enhance hay-making and feed preparation for
192 the winter, animal fattening and the repair of winter and spring shelters to improve the disaster preparedness of individual herding households. However, in 2000 only over 700,000tons of natural hay and other types of animal feed were prepared, i.e. at same level of 1999. No notable increase in haymaking was achieved, due to the 2000 summer drought. There was some increase though in commercial haymaking.
43. Measures were also taken to supply more vaccines, and dipping and deworming drugs for disease prevention purposes.
44. The State provided a budget to cover the costs for herders’ children in district and village level boarding schools. This exempted many herders from compulsory payments previously imposed and allowed them to pay more attention to herding.
45. Several activities to evaluate the 1999/2000 zud were undertaken with the support of UNDP to refine relevant lessons for improving the anti-disaster capacities of central and rural structures.
46. Further, the government issued a decree (# 190 of 2000) on the assessment and declaration of zud. The decree sets out the basic rules and criteria for evaluating the severity of disasters. In addition, the participation of central and local bodies was also proposed by the decree.
47. Nation-wide appeals were launched to mobilize local organizations and people to assist zud-affected societies by providing additional inputs.
48. The government has enacted a national programme for the provision of support to improve the protection of livestock from drought and zud (# 31, 2001). This programme aims at developing better nation-wide networks of risk preparedness through improved feed and water supply, manpower development, encouraging herders and the private sector to increase their efforts for fodder production and improve livestock productivity and processing, as well as effective cooperation.
49. A new draft land law has been submitted to the parliament which places more emphasis on the rational use of natural grazing resources, including natural pastures and crop land to increase the forage supply for the livestock sector. The law contains some new elements, such as leases or long-term titling of winter and spring pastures to individual and groups of herders and auctioning crop land to different entrepreneurs to improve land conservation and use.
Lessons related to delayed government actions:
50. In 2000/2001, the government attempted, as local people confirm, to react quicker than in the previous year to the upcoming emergencies, but the 2000/2001 zud was even more extensive (19 provinces) than the previous year (13-15 provinces) thus again hampering government interventions.
193 51. Two different coordination channels were set up in order to improve the coordination and distribution of external assistance: (i) the State Emergency Standing Committee (SESC) and (ii) the Mongolian Red Cross Society.
52. In order to improve administrative procedures some progress has been made in reviewing the responsibilities of central ministries and in promoting positions of relevant ministries in SESC. This enabled decision-making and relief implementation procedures to be more efficient and integrated.
53. Finally, the government has asked some big international agencies, such as IFAD, WB, ADB and IMF, to increase the amount of loans and grants to assist Mongolia in making its livestock production more sustainable and productive, as well as less vulnerable to natural disasters.
54. However, a comprehensive risk management framework and concrete plans of action at provincial level are still missing.
4. A FRAMEWORK FOR IMPROVED RISK MANAGEMENT PLANNING
55. The framework presented below is the intermediate result of the field analysis conducted by SDAR between 1995 and 2001, reflecting as well the lessons learned from the recent disaster in Mongolia.8 It serves as an entry point for the Technical Cooperation Project “Pastoral Risk Management Strategy”, to be launched in May 2001 in Mongolia, which will be further fine-tuned and developed into a concrete plan of action in selected provinces.
4.1 Phases of risk management
56. Pastoral risk management involves three phases, each with different characteristics, actors and activities:
Phase A: Risk preparedness
57. The preparations for coping with risks in the pastoral context can be distinguished as (a) long-term strategies for risk reduction and avoidance, which prepare the herding economy and authorities on an on-going basis for stress periods, such as winter, and for unexpected shocks; and (b) annual (short-term) planning for risk, which includes activities that prepare the herding households for regular (foreseeable) stress periods such as winter.
8 A first draft of the framework was designed by the regional workshop organized by SDAR, FAO in 1998 in Mongolia on “The Role of customary pastoral institutions in risk management, poverty alleviation and food security in Central Asian countries in transition”, and has since then been further developed.
194 Phase B: Responding to risk (when disaster occurs)
58. The need to respond to risk arises once a risk turns into an acute threat and hardship. This phase requires immediate action. It is more likely that successful action can be taken if good planning and preparatory steps have been taken by all institutions involved and immediate and integrated actions are taken.
Phase C: Recovering from risk (when damage has occurred)
59. Recovery from risk is a key process, since until the household economy has recovered it remains especially vulnerable to new risks. The level of damage/loss and the support needed at this stage are determined, on the one hand, by the gravity of the calamity and, on the other hand, by the quality, quantity and co-ordination of actions during the previous stages.
4.2 Key aspects of improved risk management
60. In the following section, the main components and activities of a comprehensive risk management framework for remote pastoral areas are organized according to the three above mentioned phases of risk management. For each phase a set of activities is presented against which the current status quo in a particular study area can be assessed. Each aspect is mentioned only once: at the stage where it is considered to be of utmost importance. This, however, does not mean that some of the aspects might not be important also in other stages. Highest emphasis and attention is given to risk preparedness.
61. It is important to note here, that the various aspects presented for each phase are intended only to provide a skeleton, for the analysis and planning of any location- specific pastoral risk management strategy, in the context of which further location- and situation-specific adaptations and/or modifications may be needed.
Phase A: Risk preparedness
A.1 Long-term risk reduction and risk avoidance strategies
● Institutional development and herder organizations: The degree to which formal and informal herder organizations operate in Central Asian countries varies. In many CA countries, an effort was made during the socialist period to strengthen authority relations in a different form than during the pre-existing feudal regimes, at the expense of relations of trust and freely-established norms. A deliberate attempt was made to reduce or destroy kinship relations and other types of customary social relationships as the basis of economic activity. Today, an organizational vacuum can often be observed in the countryside hampering co-ordinated risk and
195 environmental management by herders. Often herders cooperate in daily activities, including range and risk management, through informal camp and neighbourhood groupings, however, such informal groupings are usually not recognized as economic entities and as a result have none of the legal protection or tax advantages which more formal groups may enjoy. There is a need to encourage further evolution of formal as well as informal herder organizational structures (for example through grass-roots herder associations) which facilitate local-level collective action in pastoral economic development, including risk management and environmental conservation. Livestock marketing is one area where small-scale collective action may provide a partial solution to some market failure risks. An important part of the reconstruction of liberalized herding economies in the region will be the way new types of authority relations, trusts and socially accepted norms are recreated. It is possible that this will happen partly through the creation of hybrid institutions Ð part customary, part formal Ð such as extended camps operating as micro-enterprises for commercial hay production or milk processing. It is likely that the success or failure of this reconstruction of social capital will largely determine the success of poverty-alleviation strategies and perhaps of the pastoral economy itself. Social capital is a key determinant of the ability of pastoral groupings to survive extreme risk, by facilitating collective local action, in particular since it has been recognized that social capital is a key component of any group to pursue effective economic development.
● Appropriate financial institutions. There is an urgent need for savings, credit and insurance institutions appropriate for the remote countryside. Mongolia is an example of a country that used to have a successful economic system of universal insurance against animal loss as a result of disaster, although since economic liberalization only around 10 per cent of animals have been insured. Animal insurance needs to be established in a form suitable for market conditions. Key tasks include the development of appropriate savings mechanisms for herders, especially in the context of the need to market more livestock each autumn so that fewer need to be carried through the winter-spring pasture shortage period, and appropriate credit mechanisms to provide working capital to herders (e.g. for marketing) and facilitate restocking of herds that have fallen below a viable size or for livestock fattening or other livelihood diversification strategies.
● Risk-avoiding herd management techniques: Pastoral herding technology comprise several risk-avoiding practices, including breed selection for survival, mixed species herding, and individual household hay-making and fodder reserves. These are often specific to particular eco-systems. Many of these techniques involve trade-offs with individual short-term animal productivity. There is a need to understand better these techniques,
196 perhaps through the experience of successful herders, and to provide training in such techniques for less experienced herders.
● Incentive systems to reduce animal stocking rates in areas of over-grazing: Over-grazing of pastures causing severe range deterioration and consequently a reduced fodder base is a severe problem for instance in NW China. Over-grazing and desertification have been reported on the increase in Mongolia over the last five years. Policies and approaches to promote a reduction in the number of animals in large herds and rotational grazing patterns can be powerful tools for risk mitigation in the long term.
● Participatory technology development: Existing local knowledge on risk management and pastoral livestock production can be ideally complemented and matched with farm research and extension approaches. Innovative technologies for environmental conservation and management, range monitoring and production increase, can significantly contribute to a long-term reduction of risk exposure.
● Better co-ordination of key risk actors at provincial and lower administrative levels: Key risk actors include the herders themselves, local officials at provincial and lower administrative levels, the technical services and civil defence. These actors need to be linked by a specific plan for large-scale emergencies, with an appropriate institutional backing and enough resources for an initial rapid reaction that can be implemented at short notice. There is a need for an operational definition of natural disasters, agreed by herders and officials, to trigger action, and a standing committee with specialized working groups on different risks, with herder representation.
● Long-term weather forecasting and improved broadcasting: This is already undertaken by the different Institutes of Meteorology and Hydrology in most Central Asian countries, and transmitted to the provinces and districts. Further work needs to be done, however, to ensure that the information is made available to herders and their organizations in a timely, accessible and understandable manner.
● Market development: The development of a more efficient marketing system for livestock and livestock products, for example by providing assistance to marketing co-operatives or the organization of livestock auctions at province level, would reduce market risks to herders, and would assist in responding to other types of risks. There is a role for teaching herders about the functioning of the market economy, and for improved market information.
● Creation of emergency grazing reserves at local/district level: Herders make their own decisions about pasture use, but there is an important role for local authorities in pasture allocation, settling disputes over pasture use, and in creating grazing reserves for exceptional situations. Such
197 reserves could be situated on the border between different administrative areas, and could thus be used by different groups. Some such reserves already exist, or have survived since the collective period. However, comprehensive plans need to be elaborated, in collaboration with local authorities and user groups.
● Strategic fodder storage reserves at provincial or district level: Strategic fodder emergency stores (please refer also to footnote 6) at decentralized levels are central to any pastoral risk management strategy in high risk environments. However, they need to be maintained, regularly replenished and appropriately equipped to be ready to distribute fodder to herders in emergency situations. Herders themselves could contribute in kind (or cash) on an annual basis to the production of emergency fodder for storage. It must be ensured that the stores remain genuine reserves to be used in exceptional situations and do not become a source of subsidized fodder every year.
● Pastoral mobility: Any pastoral system in the Central Asian Region requires seasonal (e.g. transhumance) and/or periodic moves of animals between different grazing areas. Policies which do not leave enough space for herd mobility reduce the chances of successful risk management and coping. There is a particular need for herd mobility during snow storms in order to move animals away from the threatened areas. Arrangements for temporary use of emergency target areas (e.g. through leases), which may require coordination at district or provincial level, need to be prepared and up-dated on a regular basis. Any long-term risk management strategy should incorporate such options.
● Herders’ risk planning capacities: Training should be provided to herders in risk planning and management, including the preparation of animals for the winter. Economic liberalization in Mongolia and Kyrgyzstan has created a situation where there are many inexperienced herders, ignorant of basic herd management, and no framework such as that provided by the former collectives, through which herders could learn and receive supervision. In Mongolia, the situation is made worse by the substantial urban-rural migration which took place after 1990, when the urban economy contracted and inexperienced people sought a new livelihood in herding.
● Physical Infrastructure: In the few areas where they do not already exist, there is an urgent need to construct winter livestock shelters (e.g. through a cost-sharing arrangement between herders and local government, as already practised through the four counter measures in China. It should be ensured however, that such shelters are affordable to all herders, even the poorest). More generally, there is a need to review available infrastructure (including transport and communications) taking into account the requirements in an emergency situation.
198 A.2 Annual planning for risk preparedness
● Winter preparation by herders: Winter preparation is an important activity undertaken by herders, and includes proper animal fattening during the short summer season, accustoming the animals progressively to the cold, making decisions on the number of animals that can be carried through the winter and early spring, and which animals should be sold or slaughtered in the autumn, preparation and stocking of hay and other animal feed, and reinforcement of winter shelters and other enclosures. Herders need assistance with this, and many new or young herders need training by more experienced herders.
● Annual winter/drought fodder storage by households: Improved hay-making techniques and local winter fodder storage realized by individual households or groups of households need to be established/ increased. Hay storage at the household level is critical for pastoralists to feed their animals through periods of frost and heavy snow. The distribution of fodder from central stores to households is often delayed or made impossible during periods of heavy snow or frost, even when such stores do exist at the community level. The four counter measures implemented in China, which establish special hayfields for individual households, is an improvement in the right direction. However, the amounts of hay currently available at household level are often insufficient to withstand extended periods of snow Ð the most critical periods. Transportation from the fields at the time of harvest and the hay storage facilities at the household level are other constraining factors. Inter-household collaborative mechanisms to support each other in hay-making and transport, and/or the strategic demarcation of additional communal hay-making areas at community level are options that may contribute to further increasing the availability of hay for herding households during winter time.
● Seasonal pasture allocation planning: This is already undertaken by county authorities, but needs to be further co-ordinated between the herders themselves, especially through further agreements between herders’ camp and neighbourhood groups regarding seasonal movements between pastures and seasonal pasture reservation.
● Early warning: There needs to be an institutional base, ideally at provincial level, to monitor potential emergencies and provide early warning to herders and provincial authorities. More accessible weather forecasting in the five to seven day range is important, but the early warning system should also include other sources of information, especially information from experienced herders. Getting warnings to herders in time for them to react is critical (use of the existing radio system is a possibility, but often radios in the countryside are not working).
199 Phase B: Responding to risk
● Co-ordinated emergency management: The central point of administrative emergency management is the provincial government, in collaboration with authorities at county level. In major emergencies, such as serious snow disasters, the army can assist in co-ordinating responses by all government actors at provincial level. But in the administrative structures emerging from liberalization, a better articulation of State and private actors is needed (including non-governmental organizations and formal and informal herders’ groupings), especially to share information, decide on priorities and make decisions about specific responses. These institutional arrangements must be created and tested in advance.
● Facilitate herder mobility and access to emergency fodder reserves/ grazing: During snow disasters and major droughts, the ability of herders to move their animals away from the affected area is even more important than at other times, but is constrained. During snow disasters, heavy machinery may be needed (usually from the army) to clear tracks. New, more easily accessible pasture areas must be selected, transportation may have to be arranged, and water and fodder provided at waypoints on the route. Special emergency services (veterinary, human health) may be needed in places where they are not normally available. Emergency fodder reserves need to be opened and delivery of emergency fodder organized.
● Labour mobilization: Some crises are more labour-intensive than other. For example, snow disasters create additional labour at household and communal level for clearing the snow, rescuing isolated animals, and moving animals. Often there is an under-employed population at county level and in county centres, which could be mobilized by local authorities to assist with these tasks during crises.
● Emergency food distribution: There is some experience in food distribution during crises in China, but such situations could become more frequent in the future and need to be adapted to the pastoral environment.
Phase C: Recovering from risk
● Appropriate credit for restocking. Some interesting experience has already been acquired in pastoral areas in China. Such experiences provide a basis for developing appropriate schemes targeted to the particular conditions of other ecological zones.
● Alternative livelihood strategies for impoverished herders: Not all poor herders will be able to return to full-time pastoralism immediately after a crisis. Interesting work is being done to develop vegetable production by former herders either as a new branch of the economy in remote pastoral areas or as a supplementary temporary source of income. This
200 and other possible ways of diversifying rural livelihoods need to be further explored.
● Assistance where necessary with short-term consumption needs: Restocking and the development of alternative livelihood strategies do not solve the immediate problem of households impoverished by a crisis and the need to feed their member’s daily. Such a situation may last for months after a crisis. There may be a role for specific public work programme, such as food-for-work or food-for-cash, as part of a wider risk management strategy.
5. FINAL REMARKS AND CONCLUSIONS
● Most Central Asian countries9 pay too little attention to risk reduction and prevention and rely too much on interventions after disaster strikes. While coping mechanisms will remain vital for dealing with unforeseen shocks, the balance however needs to shift more from coping policies to better preparedness and mitigation of risks.
● A worrying feature observed in Central Asia since transition and increased privatization is that governments (mainly due to resource constraints) tend to decrease their assistance and services to herders in preparing for and managing risks. This tendency has to be reviewed. In spite of the important role herders themselves can play in risk management under free market conditions, governments need to continue their key role of coordination and setting the policy and legal frameworks required for herders and herding communities to get better prepared for risks. As the case of Mongolia shows, it is of utmost importance that governments are constantly prepared for possible upcoming disaster situations, as well.
● Research in Central Asia stresses the overwhelming importance of the institutional and organizational dimension to improve risk management. Capacity building, transparent and partnership-based co-ordination among actors, as well as a favourable legal and policy environment, were identified as the basic determinants of sustainable pastoral development and improved risk management. The development, promotion and introduction of new technologies are also important, but with lower priority.
● Pastoral risk has to be monitored, managed and counteracted at several levels, with a well co-ordinated and integrated approach. New modalities for sharing planning and implementation responsibilities in joint risk management need to be defined at national, provincial and district levels through extensive stakeholder negotiations, including representatives from the local to the highest institutional levels.
9 As well as the disaster-related support provided by developed countries.
201 ● After transition to a market economy and privatization of assets, herders and herding communities are able to prepare for and handle idiosyncratic (individual) risks. Coping with covariate risks, however, continues to require government coordination and support.
● The main actors in day-to-day pastoral risk management in all the countries concerned are currently the herders themselves. However, this is rarely recognized and rarely acted upon. Customary herder institutions Ð such as mechanisms for immediate assistance from fellow camp members or neighbours in assuring food securityÐ constitute the main protection for herders who suffer individual livelihood losses, but as long as such institutions are not officially recognized and adequately supported, they are easily overwhelmed during major disasters covering large areas and many households.
● Risk and poverty are closely inter-related10 . Perhaps the most common route to extreme poverty in Central Asian pastoral economies is the case of labour-deficient households that are not very skilled in herd management, own small herds close to viability, and are hit by a major climatic disaster. Once present, poverty increases scale of risks and damage that may occur as result. Poor households are more vulnerable to risk. They have less capacities and means to prepare for and counteract risk. Due to lack of opportunities, poor households are often forced to use the most marginal and therefore most fragile and high-risk eco-niches, where they possibly cause severe ecological damage. Poverty alleviation strategies for pastoral areas in Central Asia need to consider risk management as an integral part.
● Risk also jeopardizes major investments by government and donors. For example, IFAD and the Mongolian Government are investing US$ 5 million
10 However, it is important to note that risk is certainly not the only determinant of poverty. In Mongolia, for instance, other major factors shaping todays poverty are that: ● some ecological areas used by pastoralists are so resource-poor that it is difficult for even the most skilled herder to be successful; ● households with insufficient labour risk poverty; this is common during certain stages of the household life cycle, especially households with large numbers of children below working age, or households where one or two old people are left after the departure of married children; ● the management skills of individual herders are an important reason for success in herding; after the decollectivization in Central Asia, many households that were allocated animals and machinery as part of the division of the assets of the former collectives, were not skilled enough in herding to build up a herd and make a living; this was particularly the case of many urban-rural migrants who left the cities in the hope of benefiting from the distribution of animals by the former collectives, but who lacked basic herd management skills; ● the initial allocation of animals to herding households at the time of decollectivization was not done by calculating the minimum size of a viable household herd, and households were often left with too small herds for subsistence; such households were trapped in poverty from the start, which no amount of herding skill could have remedied.
202 in Arkhangay and Huvsgul provinces for poverty alleviation, especially by restocking the herds of poor herders; other donors have similar restocking programmes in other provinces. A single major snow disaster could not only threaten the success of these initiatives, but could wipe out investments already made.
● Traditionally, mobility was the main strategy to avoid pastoral risks on the Central Asian steppes, at the same time successfully preventing over-grazing and environmental degradation. The mobility of pastoralists has in many places decreased substantially during the last decades for various economic as well as political reasons. This bears major environmental risks. The mobility of their livestock, but not necessarily of the whole herding households, should remain critical in the risk management strategies of Central Asian herders.
● The increasing numbers of herds and animals are often considered a recipe for mitigating production risks. However, this is a misconception. Rather than leading to long-term production increases, large herd increases often lead to over-grazing and trampling, and ultimately to a decreasing natural resource/fodder base and reduced resilience of the natural environment against the harsh climatic conditions. A reduced fodder base, however, increases long-term production risks by causing animal losses during long winters.
● The traditional analysis of risk assumes that all risk is negative, and that risk produces only losers. However, risks offer opportunities as well as threats and there are substantial rewards to certain forms of risk-taking. Thus, a herder in a cool mountain area who herds cattle instead of yaks or yak-cattle cross-breeds is likely to fare much better in producing for the market than a herder who keeps only yaks, but at the cost of substantially increased risk of losing animals in cases of exceptional or severe snowfall. Herders, like other people, are continuously trading off risk and potential loss against potential gain. They base their calculations on their perception of risk, the economic and social frameworks which surround risk-taking, the potential rewards and damages of risk-taking, and the safety nets available in case the worst happens. These calculations change as the key elements in the calculation alter the potential rewards or the potential damage11 . Better risk preparedness will increase the perception among herders to see risks not only as threads.
11 A good example of risk-related behaviour among pastoralists in CA has been observed during the last decade in Mongolia. The existence of a State Emergency Fodder Fund (SEFF) during the period of central planning led herders to reduce their own production of winter fodder, and to abandon some previous risk-avoiding livestock management practices, since there was an assurance that the State would make fodder available in most circumstances and that even if they didn’t and animals were lost, the collectives would restock the unlucky herder. When the SEFF was disbanded at the start of liberalization, there was an immediate modification in livestock management by herders towards more risk-coping practices, such as mixed-species herding, and herders started to cut hay for themselves again.
203 62. The Kyrgyzstan situation (where items are scored out of two) shows a substantial shift of risk responsibility from the government to herders following economic liberalisation. This is especially true for snow disasters, market risk, illness and accident. In China (where the scores are out of five), the changes are less dramatic, but substantial. There have been major shifts from government to individuals in the case of economic risks (animal theft and market risk), illness and accident, but the shifts in the case of most environmental risks (snow disaster and animal disease), although they have taken place, are less dramatic; the Chinese state has retained substantial responsibilities in these areas.
204 Annex 1: Changing risk responsibility in Kyrgyzstan and China following liberalisation
Table 1. Changing risk responsibility in Kyrgyzstan following liberalisation
Degree of responsibility for risk Risk Collective period Currently government individuals government individuals Environmental snow disaster ** Ð Ð ** animal disease ** Ð** predation ** Ð** Economic animal theft ** Ð** market theft ** Ð Ð ** Social illness ** Ð Ð ** accident ** Ð Ð **
Table 2. Changing risk responsibility in China following liberalisation
Degree of responsibility for risk Risk Collective period Currently government individuals government individuals Environmental snow disaster ++++ + +++ ++ animal disease ++++ + Ð ++ predation + ++++ Ð +++++ Economic animal theft Ð Ð + ++++ market theft Ð Ð + ++++ Social illness ++ +++ + ++++ accident ++ +++ + ++++
205 REFERENCES
Adams, John, 1995, Risk. London: University College London Press. Beck, Ulrich, 1992, Risk Society. London: Sage (first published in 1986 as Risikogesellschaft). Behnke, R.H., I. Scoones, C. Kerven, eds, 1993, Range Ecology at Disequilibrium: New Models of Natural Variability and Pastoral Adaptation in African Savannas. London: ODI, IIED, Commonwealth Secretariat; I. Scoones, ed., 1996, Living with Uncertainty. Bruno, M., Nurbek Omuraliev, 2001; Strengthening pastoral institutions in Kyrgyzstan for risk management and poverty alleviation; SDAR, Case study report (unpublished). Ellis, J., Chuluun, T., 1993, Cross-country survey of climate, ecology and land use among Mongolian pastoralists. Unpublished note, IDS: PALD project. FAO, 1997, Rural development in Pastoral Areas, Arkhangay Province, Mongolia. TCP/MON/4553. Terminal Statement Prepared for the Government of Mongolia. Rome: FAO. FAO, 1996, Trends in Pastoral Development in Central Asia (Buryat, Inner Mongolia, Kalmyk, Kazakstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia). Rome: FAO. Hazell, Peter 1998, “Public policy and drought management in agro-pastoral systems”, paper presented a the international symposium on Property Rights, Risk and Livestock Development, Feldafing, Germany, September 1998. Templer, G., J. Swift, P. Payne, 1993, “The changing significance of risk in the Mongolian pastoral economy.” Nomadic Peoples 33:105-122. Liu, Y., Wang G, H. 1998: Risk Management and Poverty Alleviation in Pastoral Areas of Qinghai Province China, FAO/CIAD field study report. Liu, Y., Baas, S., et al. 2000 Strengthening Pastoral Institutions in North-West China Pastoral Area to access improved Extension Services for Risk Management and Poverty Alleviation, FAO/CIAD field study report 1999. Potkanski, T., S. Szynkiewicz, 1993, The Social Context of Liberalisation in the Mongolian Pastoral Economy. Brighton, Institute of development Studies, Policy Alternatives for Livestock Development Research Report 4. and Cooper, L., 1995, Wealth and Poverty in the Mongolian Pastoral Economy. Brighton, Institute of Development Studies. Policy Alternatives for Livestock Development, Research Report. Swift , J., and Baas, S., 1999, Pastoral institutions and approaches to risk management and poverty alleviation in Central Asian countries in transition; FAO-SD website. Swallow, B., 1994 The role of mobility within the risk management strategies of pastoralists and agro-pastoralists, IIED, Gatekeeper Series no. 47.
206 Annex XI APDC/01/7
REDUCING AGRICULTURAL VULNERABILITY TO STORMS, WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO FARMING SYSTEMS AND METHODS*
ABSTRACT
This paper provides an overview of storm-related disasters in the Asia and Pacific Region, introduces key concepts pertaining to agricultural vulnerability reduction, and explores how to strengthen disaster mitigation strategies using a farming systems approach. In particular, the paper addresses the following key questions: a) what are the major determinants of agricultural vulnerability to storm-related disasters in Asia and the Pacific? b) how can farming and livelihood systems approaches contribute to agricultural vulnerability reduction? c) what are the requisite steps for a strategic approach to reducing agricultural vulnerability? It is underscored that FAO’s experience with agricultural vulnerability reduction in Asia and the Pacific points to the need to link national mitigation planning with awareness-raising, capacity-building and mitigation planning at community level. The paper then reviews how agricultural vulnerability to storms can be reduced using a farming systems approach and proposes agriculture-specific mitigation strategies at global, regional, national, sub-national, farming systems, farm/household, and crop/livestock levels.
* Researched and prepared by Günter Hemrich, FAO Consultant, ESAF. The comments and contributions of Barbara Huddleston and Amde Gebre-Michael, ESAF; Jacques Antoine, Sally Bunning and Freddy Nachtergaele, AGLL; John Dixon, AGSD; T.C. Ti, FAO RAP; Heiko Bamann, FAO SAPA; and Michele Bernardi, SDRN are highly appreciated. CONTENTS
Page 1. INTRODUCTION ...... 209
2. AGRICULTURAL VULNERABILITY TO STORM-RELATED DISASTERS IN THE ASIA AND PACIFIC REGION...... 210 2.1 Risk, Hazard and Vulnerability ...... 210 2.2 The Nature of Storms ...... 211 2.3 Storm Impact and Vulnerability in Asia and the Pacific ...... 213
3. FAO’S APPROACH TO REDUCING AGRICULTURAL VULNERABILITY TO STORM-RELATED DISASTERS ...... 218 3.1. A Strategy for Reducing Agricultural Vulnerability ...... 218 3.2 FAO’s Experience with Agricultural Vulnerability Reduction... 220
4. REDUCING AGRICULTURAL VULNERABILITY TO STORMS USING A FARMING SYSTEMS APPROACH...... 223 4.1 Farming Systems and Risk Reduction Strategies at the Farm/household Level ...... 223 4.2 Micro-Macro Linkages in Agricultural Vulnerability Reduction Strategies ...... 228
5. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 233
BIBLIOGRAPHY ...... 236
GLOSSARY ...... 238 1. INTRODUCTION
1. During the 1990s, the incidence of storm-related disasters increased in frequency and intensity. Windstorm and flood-related disasters1 combined accounted for 60 per cent of the total economic loss caused by natural disasters, according to the 2000 World Disaster Report of the International Federation of the Red Cross.2 Despite increased flood awareness and cyclone warning measures, the last 10 years have seen a 300 per cent rise in the number of individuals affected by floods and storms.
2. Storm-related disasters can severely undermine rural livelihoods. Apart from their immediate effects Ð death, injury, hunger and starvation Ð windstorms can wipe out the results of many years of infrastructure development through the destruction of roads, bridges, irrigation schemes and buildings, and seriously set back socio-economic progress. Islands are particularly vulnerable: a single storm may be sufficient to destroy an island’s infrastructure and cripple its economy.3 Storm-related disasters pose a great challenge to the global objective of reducing poverty and hunger in developing countries.
3. As far as agricultural impact is concerned, tropical storms can destroy standing crops and food stores, kill or injure livestock, damage homes and deplete the asset base of rural families. Fishing communities suffer from storms through loss of life at sea, wrecked boats and damage to landing sites and equipment. Storm effects, such as increased soil salinity after a storm surge or land slides following flash floods may affect land quality and future land productivity.
4. Many Asian and Pacific countries, and particularly those with low-lying coastal areas and high population density, are especially vulnerable to storm-related disasters. Most of the tropical cyclones with the highest recorded mortality have occurred in Bangladesh (300,000 deaths in 1970; 11,000 deaths in 1985; 140,000 deaths in 1991) and India (20,000 deaths in 1977 and 10,000 deaths in 1999).4 Given the severe disruption stemming from natural disasters, many countries have formulated National Disaster Management Plans, covering various types of disasters, sectors and agencies. Within the framework of these plans, there is an urgent need to develop agriculture sector-specific as well as storm hazard-specific mitigation strategies.
1 While floods may occur for other reasons (rapid snowmelt, tidal waves), most are caused either directly or indirectly by storms resulting in waters to rise. 2 IFRC (2000): World Disaster Report, cited from the OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database Ð www.cred.be/emdat – Université Catholique de Louvain , Brussels, Belgium. 3 FAO/TCOR Web page; http://www.fao.org/reliefoperations/disaster/storm.htm 4 WHO/WMO/UNEP (1996): Climate Change and Human Health. An Assessment Prepared by a Task Group of the World Health Organisation, the World Meteorological Organisation and the United Nations Environment Programme. Editors: McMichael, A.J.; A. Haines, R. Sloof, and S. Kovats, p. 125. 5. Recognising the serious negative impact of natural disasters on food security, the 25th FAO Regional Conference for Asia and the Pacific urged member states to make disaster prevention and mitigation an integral component of sustainable agriculture and rural development. It also recommended that FAO intensify technical assistance in disaster management to the most affected countries.5 In response to individual country requests as well as to regional conference recommendations, FAO has been assisting affected countries through the various disaster management phases on an ad hoc basis.
6. FAO’s Medium Term Plan (2002-2007) has introduced “Disaster Prevention, Mitigation and Preparedness and Post-Emergency Relief and Rehabilitation” as a Priority Area for Inter-disciplinary Action (PAIA). As a contribution to this PAIA, a paper on “Reducing Agricultural Vulnerability to Storm-related Disasters” was recently included as an agenda item of the 16th FAO Committee on Agriculture (COAG). The Committee unanimously endorsed a strategic framework for reducing agricultural vulnerability to storm-related disasters.
7. As part of these efforts, this paper provides an overview of storm-related disasters in the Asia and Pacific Region, introduces key concepts pertaining to agricultural vulnerability reduction, and explores how to strengthen disaster mitigation strategies using a farming systems approach. In particular, the paper addresses the following key questions:
What are the major determinants of agricultural vulnerability to storm-related disasters in Asia and the Pacific? How can farming and livelihood systems approaches contribute to agricultural vulnerability reduction? What are the requisite steps for a strategic approach to reducing agricultural vulnerability?
2. AGRICULTURAL VULNERABILITY TO STORM-RELATED DISASTERS IN THE ASIA AND PACIFIC REGION
2.1 Risk, Hazard and Vulnerability
8. An in-depth understanding of the concepts of hazard and vulnerability is a prerequisite for designing strategies for reducing agricultural vulnerability to storm-related disasters. The term hazard refers to an extreme natural event, such as a windstorm. A hazard may or may not result in disasters, depending on the characteristics of the system that receives its impact.
5 FAO (2000): Twenty-fifth FAO Regional Conference for Asia and the Pacific, Yokahoma, Japan, 28 August to 1 September 2000). Conference Report, p. 7. 9. Vulnerability refers to the propensity of a society to experience substantial damage, disruption and casualties as a result of a hazard. For example, a hurricane only turns into a disaster if it strikes an area with a vulnerable population and decimates its livelihood assets. Although natural disasters are triggered by the occurrence of hazardous events, human activities are often a major contributing factor in creating a disaster. Disaster risk is thus a product of the frequency and intensity of hazards and the vulnerability of a population and its livelihood systems, as illustrated in Figure 1.
Disaster
Risk = Storm Hazard x Vulnerability
Figure 1. Components of Storm-related disasters
2.2 The Nature of Storms
10. “Storm” is a generic term used to describe a large variety of atmospheric disturbances ranging from ordinary rain showers and snowstorms to thunderstorms, wind and wind-related disturbances such as gales, tornadoes, tropical cyclones and sandstorms.6 This paper focuses on ‘tropical cyclones’, which are defined as weather disturbances of tropical oceanic origin in which winds exceed 63 km/h, according to the World Meteorological Organization. When wind speed exceeds 119 km/h, the storm reaches hurricane strength (see Box 1). Tropical storms with very strong winds have different names depending on where they occur. In the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, they are known as hurricanes, in the Western Pacific (including the Philippines), as typhoons, in areas near Australia as Willy Willy and in the Indian Ocean as cyclones.
Box 1: Phases of Tropical Cyclones
Tropical disturbance: a weather system which gives rise to a specific area of cloudiness with embedded showers and thunderstorms. Tropical depression: definite counter-clockwise wind circulation with maximum sustained winds of less than 63 km/h. Tropical storm: a tropical cyclone system, with maximum sustained surface winds greater than 63 km/h, but less than 119 km/h. Hurricane: a tropical cyclone with wind speed greater than 119 km/h.
Source: FAO (2000): COAG 01/6, SDRN contribution.
6 FAO (2000): Reducing Agricultural Vulnerability to Storm-related Disasters. COAG/01/6, p. 2. 11. The most destructive force of tropical cyclones comes from the fierce winds. But these cause only part of the problem. Devastating floods from extremely heavy rainfall often accompany tropical cyclones. Flash floods of great volume and short duration may occur from a cyclone’s rain, especially in hilly or mountainous areas. In many major tropical cyclone disasters, storm surge is frequently a key factor. As the cyclone approaches the coastal area, strong on-shore winds can cause a rise of several meters in sea level; the result is water crossing the coast and flooding large areas of the interior.
12. Cyclones are borne in the hot, humid, late summer environment of the tropics (November to April in the South Pacific; June to August in the Caribbean). Tropical cyclones form in the oceans between 5 to 30 degrees north and south of the equator and tropical storm tracks are shown in Figure 2. The life span of a tropical cyclone is, on average, about six to nine days until it enters land or enters into temperate latitudes, but this may vary from a few hours to as much as three to four weeks. It is important to note that no two tropical cyclones follow the same track. Some recurve, some do not; some loop; some slow to a standstill and some accelerate. The development and tracks of cyclones can be monitored before these dissipate over the ocean or approach land. Therefore, it is possible to warn people living in coastal areas of the risk that a cyclone may occur.7
Source: Whitton, Disasters: The Anatomy of Environmental Hazards, Page 253. Cited in: University of Wisconsin, About Natural Hazards: Causes and Effects.
Figure 2. Tropical Storm Tracks
7 University of Wisconsin, Disaster Management Center: About Natural Hazards: Causes and Effects; http://epdweb.engr.wisc.edu/dmc/courses/hazards/BB02-intro.html 13. Human action may play a role in increasing the intensity and frequency of storms. It has been widely argued that climatic change is likely to lead to an increase in hydro-meteorological hazards world-wide.8 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), however, has concluded that there is no clear evidence that sustained or worldwide changes in the frequency of such events have taken place in recent decades.9 Changes in global cyclone frequency may be small in comparison to their natural variability.10 However, despite uncertainty about the specific and local effects of climate change, climatologists anticipate regional increases in the frequency of heavy precipitation events, leading to increased flooding.11
2.3 Storm Impact and Vulnerability in Asia and the Pacific
14. During the 1990s, Asia experienced 332, that is 40 per cent, of 821 windstorms reported globally, according to the World Disaster Report of the International Federation of the Red Cross.12 However, 80 per cent (185 million) of the number of people affected by windstorms globally during this period (232 million) were living in Asia. Further, the number of people killed in Asia is estimated at 185,000 or 91 per cent of the global total of 201,790. These figures illustrate the comparatively high vulnerability of Asia to storms.
15. Figure 3 shows the distribution of natural disasters in Asia by type of phenomena over the last quarter century. Red indicates the number of windstorm- related disasters and blue indicates the number of floods. The relative importance of each type of disaster can be deducted from the share in the pie chart, in conjunction with the overall size of the circle. In countries such as Bangladesh, India, the Philippines and China, windstorms and related floods pose the biggest threat of all natural disasters.
16. The occurrence of storm-related disasters has been described, to some extent, as an “accident” of geography, as some areas, and in particular developing countries, are more prone to storms that others.13 Countries most vulnerable to storm surges are
8 Building on a decade of success: Creating a culture of prevention; http://www.unisdr.org/unisdr/ culture.htm 9 WHO/WMO/UNEP (1996): Climate Change and Human Health. An Assessment Prepared by a Task Group of the World Health Organisation, the World Meteorological Organisation and the United Nations Environment Programme. Editors: McMichael, A.J.; A. Haines, R. Sloof, and S. Kovats, p. 124. For further information see also: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001): A Report of Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Summary for Policymakers at http:// www.ipcc.ch/ 10 ibid., p. 35. 11 ibid., p. xvi. 12 IFRC (2000): World Disaster Report, cited from the OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database Ð www.cred.be/emdat – Université Catholique de Louvain , Brussels, Belgium. 13 John Twigg. Disasters, Development and Vulnerability; http://www.oneworld.org/idndr/DevRisk/ Twigg.htm EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database (http://www.cred.be; email: [email protected])
Figure 3. Distribution of natural disasters, by country and type of phenomena, in Asia (1975-1999) those that experience the more severe tropical cyclones and have low-lying land along the closed and/or semi-enclosed bays facing the ocean. In the Asia and Pacific region, such countries include Bangladesh, China, India, Japan and Australia.
17. The case of Bangladesh illustrates how geographic location and characteristics are important factors of storm impact. Severe cyclone and tidal surges are common in the country’s 710 km long coastal belt and cause severe damage to life and property. Bangladesh is also the most flood-prone country in the world. In April 1991, flooding due to tidal surges caused by cyclones in the Bay of Bengal resulted in the death of 140,000 people and damaged several thousand hectares of crop and property. Figure 4 shows areas of Bangladesh exposed to storm surge and affected by cyclones. The impact of the 1991 cyclone covered an area similar to that shown as “occasionally affected” on the map in Figure 2. In August-September 1998, three major floods occurred in Bangladesh resulting in th death of 3,000 people and the loss of 10 per cent of rice production. Heavy floods also hit the country in August- September 2000.
18. The effect of cyclones is a function not only of physical characteristics such as strength, location, and timing, but equally of people’s vulnerability. The Bangladesh experience illustrates how socio-economic factors determine storm impact. With increasing population pressure and economic marginalisation, rural poor people are increasingly living in cyclone prone areas and may not be reached with warning messages early enough to be evacuated.14
19. The concept of vulnerability can be applied across various levels. As far as the national level is concerned, storm-related disasters tend to be more severe in those countries which do not have the wealth, infrastructure and institutional capacity to protect their people against tropical storms. They may face resource constraints to investing in mitigation and preparedness measures, such as scientific forecasting, safer buildings, Source: Ericksen et. al. 1993, cited in land use regulation, emergency http://www.fao.org/ag/AGL/swlwpnr/banglade/e_clim management systems and/or hz.htm#Cyclones insurance cover. Figure 4. Cyclones in Bangladesh 20. According to FAO’s Global Information and Early Warning Service (GIEWS), there has been a noticeable increase in the occurrence of typhoons and floods in the last five years. The damage in 2000 has been particularly widespread. A brief summary of examples of recent major storm-related disasters and their impact at national level can be found in Box 2.
21. At community/household level, it is the poor segments of society which suffer most from storm and flood-related disasters, since economic pressures generally force them to live in dangerous areas, such as flood plains and unstable hillsides. In addition, once the disasters take place, they have no financial or other means to protect themselves against the impact of the disasters and recover quickly. This is illustrated in an example from India in Box 3.
22. It is important to note that vulnerability is likely to change over time. High population density, economic pressures and inequity in land-tenure systems may force people to live in risk-prone areas that wee formerly not populated. The expansion of agriculture and settlements into risk-prone areas is one factor that can increase
14 Personal communication: Jacques Antoine, FAO, AGLL, April 2001. Box 2: Examples of Recent Major Storm-related Disasters
➣ In Korea DPR in 1996, widespread floods resulted in the loss of 300,000 tonnes of rice and maize. Cereal losses were equivalent to 8 per cent of average annual production. Overall, flood damage compounded by structural problems in the agriculture sector resulted in a deficit for 1996/1997 estimated at 1.83 million tonnes. ➣ In Bangladesh in 1998, three major floods resulted in 50 per cent of the country going under water for periods of up to 67 days, at depths of up to three metres. Some 3,000 people died. Rice loss was put at one million hectares or 2.2 million tonnes, equivalent to about 10 per cent of average annual production. The overall rice deficit was put at 3.6 million tonnes. ➣ In Cambodia in 2000, the worst flooding in 70 years resulted in about 270,000 hectares of rice being damaged or destroyed. A state of emergency was declared in several provinces. The area damaged was equivalent to 13 per cent of the total area planted to rice. ➣ In China in 1998, extensive flooding in the central, south-eastern and north-eastern parts of the country resulted in 22 million hectares being affected, of which 4.8 million hectares were lost. The overall grain stock situation in country remained satisfactory due to bumper harvests in preceding years. However, emergency food aid to 5.8 million people was delivered over a period of four months. ➣ In India in 1999, the worst cyclone in almost 30 years along the North Eastern state of Orissa, coupled with a second cyclone, killed 9,465 people and injured 2,260. Some 1,225,000 hectares of cropland were destroyed, 90-100 per cent of crop loss occurred in affected areas, and at least 355,000 cattle were killed. About 15 million persons were affected and 3 million homes were damaged (1.5 million of which were completely destroyed). Thousands of families lost their livelihoods as a result of the loss of livestock, agricultural land, and fishing boats. ➣ In Laos in 1996, a series of typhoons caused widespread flooding in major rice producing areas in the lowlands of Central and Southern region. Six provinces were significantly affected, accounting for nearly 94 per cent of losses in rice. Total loss in rice was estimated at some 76,000 hectares of paddy, equivalent to some 12 per cent of the annual average plantings. A rice deficit of 154,000 tonnes necessitated food aid. ➣ In the Philippines, an average of 20 tropical cyclones pass through each year. No other country experiences as large a number of tropical cyclone passages. In November 1991, typhoon Thelma caused the death of about 6,000 people. ➣ In Vietnam in 1997, typhoon Linda caused 4,000 deaths.
Source: FAO Global Information and Early Warning System for Food and Agriculture (GIEWS/ESCG). Box 3: Socio-economic Determinants of Vulnerability to Storm-related Disasters: The Differential Impact of Cyclones in the State of Andra Pradesh, India
A case study on the relative impact of a cyclone on a wealthy and a poor household situated 100 meters apart near the coast of Andra Pradesh in southern India showed that the impact was more severe on the poor household. The wealthy household had a brick house, six cattle, more than a hectare of land, and owned a small grain business and a truck. The poor household had a thatch and a pole house, an ox and a calf, and less than half a hectare of poor land. When the cyclone occurred, the wealthy householder had received a radio warning and left the area with his family and valuables in the truck. The storm surge partly destroyed his house and the roof was blown away by the wind. Three of his cattle drowned, his fields were flooded and his crops destroyed. The poor household lost the youngest child who drowned in the flood. The house was destroyed, both the animals drowned, the field was flooded and the crops were ruined. The wealthy household used its savings to rebuild the house within a week. The cattle was replaced and fields were ploughed and replanted. The poor household had no savings and had to borrow from a local money lender at exorbitant rates of interest. The household managed to buy a calf but could only plough the field late because of the problem it faced in hiring bullocks which were in short supply. The poor household had to go through a hungry period of eight months after the cyclone.
Source: Natural Disasters and the Third World. The UK National Co-ordination Committee for the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction, Oxford Centre for Disaster Studies, page 4, cited in FAO (2000): Reducing Agricultural Vulnerability to Storm-related Disasters, COAG 01/6.
vulnerability. FAO studies from Asia indicate that some countries have reached a limit in terms of available agricultural land, a fact which completely modified the vulnerability profiles.15
23. In summary, storm-related disasters need to be analysed in the context of the probability, frequency and intensity of storm hazards occurring as well as a system’s vulnerability, i.e. its propensity to experience substantial impact. Hazard risk mapping is an entry point for a more comprehensive vulnerability analysis, addressing agro-ecological, economic, social and political factors of vulnerability. Vulnerability reduction requires aspects of preparedness, such as early warning systems and contingency plans as well as measures that increase resilience of existing systems.
15 Gommes, René (1998): Climate-related Risk in Agriculture. A Note Prepared for the IPCC Expert Meeting on Risk Management Methods, Toronto, AES, Environment Canada, p. 5. 3. FAO’S APPROACH TO REDUCING AGRICULTURAL VULNERABILITY TO STORM-RELATED DISASTERS
3.1. A Strategy for Reducing Agricultural Vulnerability
24. Due to a growing international recognition that greater attention needs to be paid on preventing disasters and mitigating their effects, FAO revised the Terms of Reference of its Emergency Co-ordination Group (ECG) in 1999. The major task of the ECG is now to “ensure coherent preventive action and systematic response from all the concerned units within FAO, through enhanced collaboration at all stages in the emergency, entailing both normative elements (establishing clear and practical guidelines and procedures) and operational elements (ensuring high levels of synergy between field operations at each stage)”.16
25. Pro-active prevention has been defined as those development activities that address the underlying causes of natural disasters and human-made emergencies, according to the ECG ad hoc working group on prevention and preparedness.17 This includes support activities ranging from sound watershed management to community development, and from construction of flood control dams to nutrition education. Disaster prevention and mitigation need to be an essential component of agricultural development work in disaster prone areas and need to be systematically integrated into field projects and normative work through a concerted effort among FAO and its partners in member countries.
26. The Priority Area for Inter-disciplinary Action (PAIA) on “Disaster Prevention, Mitigation and Preparedness and Post-Emergency Relief and Rehabilitation”, which was established in FAO’s MTP 2002-2007, follows up on earlier efforts by the ad hoc working group on prevention and preparedness with a new, integrated approach to natural disaster mitigation. The PAIA was established to give due attention to co-operation across departments, concerned technical units and associated regional teams. It is a response to an increasing demand from donors and countries to work on prevention and preparedness of disasters.
27. The COAG paper on “Reducing Agricultural Vulnerability to Storm-related Disasters”18 mentioned in Section 1 proposes that each vulnerable country or region needs a strategy which: a) integrates long-term measures for reducing agricultural vulnerability to storm-related disasters within the overall development programme of the storm and flood-prone areas, and within the country as a whole, b) strengthens early warning and storm forecasting systems; and c) provides for preparedness plans for relief and rehabilitation in the event of disasters, linked, where possible, to
16 Director General’s Bulletin 99/16, http://internal.fao.org/ois/afsintranet/dgb/dgb99_16.htm 17 FAO (2000): Strengthening FAO’s Capacity to Prepare for and Respond to Emergencies. Internal Report. 18 FAO (2000): Reducing Agricultural Vulnerability to Storm-related Disasters. COAG/01/6. long-term programmes through a relief/development continuum approach. The following strategy objectives are proposed:
a) avoiding or minimising the risk of death, injury and suffering from lack of shelter and shortage of food; b) avoiding the risk of poor households getting poorer through the loss of property and sources of livelihood; c) avoiding or minimising the need for large-scale relief and rehabilitation expenditures; d) avoiding or minimising the risk of disruption of the development process through diversion of resources to relief and rehabilitation; e) ensuring a sustainable development process with effective poverty eradication programmes to reduce vulnerability of communities to storm disasters.
28. FAO’s approach to disaster management is embedded in the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR), entitled “A Safer World in the 21st Century: Risk and Disaster Reduction”19 . The main objectives of the ISDR disaster reduction strategy are to:
enable communities to become resilient to the effects of natural, technological and environmental hazards, thus reducing the compound risks they pose to social and economic vulnerabilities within modern societies; and
proceed from protection against hazards to the management of risk through the integration of risk prevention into sustainable development. 29. The following points should be borne in mind concerning the overall strategy for reducing agricultural vulnerability to storm-disasters:
⇒ Disaster management and agricultural vulnerability reduction refers to action prior to, during, and after a disaster. Similarly, measures to mitigate the agricultural impact of storm-related disasters relate to all stages of the emergency sequence, even though a focus needs to be placed on pre-disaster measures that strengthen the resilience of agricultural production and rural livelihood systems.20
19 http://www.unisdr.org/unisdr/safer.htm 20 Disaster mitigation and preparedness activities also play an important role in the relief and rehabilitation stage, by strengthening the resilience of agricultural systems and rural communities against future disasters through appropriate rehabilitation measures. However, the time pressures in a post-disaster situation increases the danger that activities will not be adequately planned or co-ordinated. Further, the interest in disaster mitigation in the period after a disaster may lead to approaches which are not sustainable in the long-run. These aspects need to be considered when deciding the appropriate placement of disaster interventions, see OECD (1994): Disaster Mitigation Guidelines, p. 16. ⇒ As countries, communities and population sub-groups may be prone to various types of disaster simultaneously (e.g. storms and floods) or subsequently (e.g. drought and flood), disaster management strategies addressing storm-related disasters need to be integrated with strategies that address other types of disaster. ⇒ Mitigation strategies need to be built on vulnerability analysis. As storm impact assessments can provide useful information on vulnerability, routine impact assessments could also identify factors of vulnerability. Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions (CFSAM) that assess the food needs of vulnerable groups after a disaster has struck could be broadened to include more analysis on factors related to vulnerability to storms. Similarly, on-going work to establish a Rapid Agricultural Disaster Assessment Routine (RADAR) should also consider factors related to vulnerability to storm disasters.21
3.2 FAO’s Experience with Agricultural Vulnerability Reduction
30. FAO has been engaged in agricultural vulnerability reduction as part of its development programme for many years. A wide range of guidelines exists on preparedness for food emergencies, covering the establishment of early warning and food security information systems, management of food security reserves and targeting and distribution policies and procedures for food aid. Guidelines on agricultural preparedness procedures for use in droughts, floods, hurricanes, cyclones, as well as water-logging of soils have also been prepared or are under preparation. An expert consultation has been held on seed security, and proposals have been made for a programme of activities in this area.22
31. A number of recent or on-going field projects address different aspects of vulnerability reduction. Below are some examples of field projects from different regions focusing on preparedness planning and vulnerability reduction:
32. Eastern Caribbean, TCP/RLA/6616: Hurricane Action Plan for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Sectors in the Eastern Caribbean (September 1997 to October 1999): The main objective of this project was to assist the eastern Caribbean states of Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, the Commonwealth of Dominica, Grenada, St Lucia, St Kitts and Nevis, St Vincent and the Grenadines, and Trinidad and Tobago in developing details of national and regional hurricane disaster preparedness and impact mitigation strategies for the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sub-sectors. The Action Plan developed under the project assists officials and decision- makers of the agriculture, fisheries and forestry sectors to establish and co-ordinate sector-specific preparedness and mitigation activities. It is based on the presumption
21 The Rapid Agricultural Disaster Assessment Routine (RADAR) is being further developed by SDRN. 22 FAO (2000): Strengthening FAO’s Capacity to Prepare for and Respond to Emergencies. Internal Report. that sound sector planning needs to be pro-active in mobilising and integrating resources, government and non-government, to reduce potential hurricane-related impacts and losses. The project also examined the role of “Geographic Information Systems (GIS) Enhancement for Hurricane Preparedness and Impact Mitigation in the Agriculture Sector”.
33. Fiji, OSRO/FIJ/901/FIN: Strengthening National Capacity for Emergency Disaster Preparedness and Mitigation in Agriculture (started June 1999; ongoing): The purpose of this project is to reduce the vulnerability of rural communities to hazards through training and awareness raising that focuses on better preparedness measures, improved food security and self-reliance. The project aims at strengthening the existing disaster management structures by:
enhancing agricultural community disaster preparedness;
setting up an information system on natural disaster preparedness and mitigation.
34. Lessons learned from Fiji point to the need to extend disaster planning from national to community level. While a system for national disaster management is more or less in place, a recent FAO backstopping report highlights that, despite those plans, discussions with agricultural extension officers, farmers and welfare workers revealed a lack of knowledge among villagers on the following aspects:
a) long-term measures to mitigate the impact of a disaster; b) action needed when an alert of an impending hazard is given; and c) how to act within the framework of individual and collective self-reliance in the village.23
35. The project builds up information resources for each specific area and link these to a national data structure for response planning and mitigation plans. The emphasis is on developing training materials to reinforce community coping capacity in agriculture to minimise the impact of natural disasters.
36. In particular the project aims to prepare the following Fiji-specific training materials:
Natural Disaster Risks and Vulnerability
Basic Elements of a Natural Disaster Preparedness and Mitigation Plan
Early Warning and Food Information Systems in Fiji
Institutional Framework for Disaster Preparedness and Mitigation
23 Ti, T.C. (2000): Strengthening of National Capacity for Emergency Preparedness and Mitigation in Agriculture (OSRO/FIJ/901/FIN). First Technical Backstopping Mission Report. FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific. Box 4: Example of Components for a Long-term Cyclone Mitigation Plan in Fiji
Vulnerability, risk and impact assessments in fisheries and agriculture, emphasising strengths and weaknesses of existing production systems.
Storm-resistant agricultural crops and practices, including the introduction of new crops, windbreaks and land protection measures.
Storm-resistant measures in the fisheries sector, such as stronger buildings and facilities, the installation of storm warning systems, supply of life-saving appliances, boat improvement, and more effective search and rescue capability.
Community actions, including food relief activities, tasks to be undertaken and procedures to enter into force in the event of storms and cyclones.
Source: List of Training Materials to be prepared under TCP/Fij/901/Fin, BTOR T.C. Ti, Senior Food Systems Economist, FAO RAP, March 2000.
Long-term and Contingency Plans for Sudden Natural Disasters, including Hurricanes and Cyclones (for details see Box 4).
37. India, TCP/IND/6712: Training in Sea Safety Development Programmes to Reduce the Loss of Life Amongst Fisherfolk During Cyclones (May 1997 to April 1999): FAO’s fisheries department has considerable experience with community level contingency planning in India. In the framework of TCP/IND/6712, training in sea safety development to reduce the loss of life amongst fisherfolk during cyclones was carried out. The project had facilitated the development of community contingency plans in 30 villages covering pre-, during- and post-cyclone phases. The development and operation of these plans by the community created a strong sense of ownership and was central to their sustainability. The importance of this work being tied in to development work in the villages was stressed. The project had tried from the outset to obtain at least 50 per cent participation of women both amongst the 20 extension officers recruited and trained as well as amongst the 750 volunteers of the 30 Storm Safety Action Groups (SSAGs) in the pilot villages. While this was not achieved, the extension officer teams (they worked in pairs), which included women, showed a clear advantage in encouraging the active participation of women in the village groups and gender issues in the plans. The poor level of literacy and education in the fishing communities combined with the style and terminology of the cyclone warnings was seen as a key factor in the lack of preparedness amongst such communities. Specific and significant improvements in these two areas coupled with the development of sound Storm Safety Action Groups reaped significant reductions in vulnerability. Key lessons learned from the project include the following:
Communication within the cyclone warning dissemination network from national and state level to the fisherfolk has been lengthy and weak and requires strengthening through better radio-based communications infrastructure.
Cyclone warnings received by fisherfolk are usually not taken seriously, because they do not understand the unpredictable nature of cyclone tracks or the intention of warnings. Therefore, widespread awareness-raising campaigns on cyclone warning need to be carried out.
Community-based disaster preparedness and management programmes based on a participatory extension approach, are required to complement national and state level plans.
Improvement of sea safety measures is critical to reducing cyclone impact on fisheries communities.24
38. In summary, FAO’s experience highlights the need to link national mitigation planning with awareness-raising, capacity-building and mitigation planning at community level.
4. REDUCING AGRICULTURAL VULNERABILITY TO STORMS USING A FARMING SYSTEMS APPROACH
4.1 Farming Systems and Risk Reduction Strategies at the Farm/household Level
39. For the purpose of this paper, farming systems are defined as categories of farms that have broadly similar resource patterns, enterprise patterns, household livelihoods and constraints, for which similar strategies for agricultural vulnerability reduction are appropriate. The farming systems approach considers agricultural production activities at the farm level, but places increased emphasis also on farm level activities not directly related to agricultural production, on community functions, support services and environmental factors.25
40. Farming systems-specific vulnerability maps, drawn by overlaying regional, national or local farming systems maps with hazard risk maps, could serve as an entry point to developing agriculture and storm-disaster specific disaster mitigation strategies. Vulnerability maps need to take into account a range of factors influencing system vulnerability to external shocks, such as variability of agricultural yields and prices,
24 Calvert, Paul (1999): Training in Sea Safety Development programmes to Reduce Loss of Life amongst Fisherfolks During Cyclones. Draft Technical Report. 25 FAO (2001): Global Farming Systems Study: Challenges and Priorities to 2030, Synthesis and Global Overview, pp. 4-5. input supply, human labour availability, and the level and character of agricultural technologies in place.26
41. An important characteristic of a farming system is the degree of crop/livestock integration. In many parts of the world, livestock serves as an insurance mechanism to crop failure. Thus, it is important to determine how this traditional safety mechanism functions when rapid onset disasters, such as windstorms, strike and how traditional coping mechanisms are affected by crop-biased relief measures, such as cereal distribution for food and seed.
42. A farming systems-based development of mitigation strategies requires a diagnostic framework, which includes livelihood analysis as well as in-depth vulnerability and risk assessment (see Section 2). Production-based approaches to mitigation need to be broadened to encompass agricultural systems- and client-oriented approaches which take into account how men and women obtain their livelihoods. Vulnerability reduction strategies require policies and programmes that address the human factor of production, as well as the livelihood systems and assets of the producers, inclusive of their vulnerability to storms and other natural disasters. Gender-differentiated coping strategies also need to be considered in mitigation planning (see Box 5).
43. FAO (1992) differentiates between two basic approaches to strategies aimed at reducing weather-related risk in agriculture: a) maximising profit; and b) stabilising production (see Box 6).27 According to Gommes (1998), risk reduction strategies can
Box 5: Gender-Differentiated Local Coping Strategies: Bangladesh
Trees play a vital role in the coping strategies of the rural poor. While there is always the risk that a tree itself will be knocked down, a grove of trees near the home both acts as a wind barrier and provides something sturdy with which people can tie themselves to during a storm. This is particularly important for women in view of the norm in Bangladesh that women stay at home (to protect family assets from damage and/or thieves) as long as possible during the approach of a storm. As such they may have to rely on nearby trees for emergency protection. Women also tend to stay in the home due to the purdah, whereby a woman is discouraged from moving freely in public, and thus going to a cyclone shelter unaccompanied by her husband.
Source: Nick Haan (1999): The Role of WFP in Mitigating Natural Disasters, A Case Study of Constraints and Opportunities in Bangladesh, p. 10.
26 Personal communication, John Dixon, Senior Farming Systems Officer, AGDP, 13 March 2001. 27 FAO (1992): The Role of Agro-meteorology in the Alleviation of Natural Disasters. Paper prepared by Gommes, Rene and Th. Nègre (1992), FAO Agrometeorology Series Working Paper, Number 2, p. 10. Box 6: Agricultural Strategies to Reduce Weather-related Risk
Strategy A
Maximising profit combined with protection against risk: This option is characterised by high infrastructure cost to contain climate risk for the construction of embankments, polders, dams, advanced storage and processing systems, disaster warning and monitoring systems, insurance against weather-related risk, etc. Strategy B
Stabilising production through time-tested methods, such as crop diversification, mixed cropping, choice of crops (e.g. root versus cereal crops, off-season crops, short-cycled varieties).
Source: FAO (1992): The Role of Agro-meteorology in the Alleviation of Natural Disasters. be defined based on the degree of subsistence- or market-orientation of a farm household (see Table 1)28 , and depend on the level of development, comparative advantages defined by agricultural policy, as well as the type and probability of disaster.29
44. Gommes’ analysis of risk reduction strategies in Table 1 does not differentiate by gender. However, given the diverse roles of men and women in food and cash crop production, gender aspects are likely to be a critical factor in the choice of risk reduction strategies, and should therefore be integrated in future work on this topic.
45. There are likely to be many gradients between ‘maximising profit’ and ‘stabilising production’ strategies as presented in Table 1. In its initial stages, the commercialisation of agriculture may limit the diversity of farming systems and may thus lead to increased vulnerability, until structural and non-structural measures are established to substitute for the built-in resilience of traditional cropping systems.
46. An example from the Pacific Islands illustrates how agricultural production systems can change as a result of macro-economic incentives, and considerably alter the patterns of vulnerability to storm-related disasters. When in 1998 kava30
28 Gommes, René (1998): Climate-related Risk in Agriculture. A Note Prepared for the IPCC Expert Meeting on Risk Management Methods, Toronto, AES, Environment Canada. 29 FAO (1992), op. cit. 30 Piper methysticum (kava kava) is a perennial plant native to the Pacific Island region, and has been used ceremonially for thousands of years. Its active substances, a series of kavalactones, are concentrated in the rootstock and roots. Islanders ingest these psychoactive chemicals by drinking cold-water infusions of chewed, ground, pounded, or otherwise macerated kava stumps and roots. In the Pacific today, although some Islanders have abandoned its use, its traditional functions are being maintained and it is being developed into an important cash crop. Table 1. Risk Reduction Strategies in Subsistence and Market-oriented Agricultural Production Systems
Subsistence-Oriented Farmer Market-oriented Farmer Strategy Stabilise production Maximise income Maximum loss Life and out-migration Debt and cessation of activity Source of risk Weather Weather, markets and policies Non-structural risk Virtually non-existent Insurance, credit, legislation avoidance mechanisms Inputs Very low, with little and slow Very significant; fast evolving technology evolving (varieties, component. mechanisation, pesticides etc.) Assets base Small Large Price of food crops Local: depends mostly on Global: they depend on local markets and production. national and international Very steep spatial gradients markets and production, of prices can be observed in and on government policies the same country; prices are often government controlled Price of industrial crops Global to some extent, but As above, but with much government agencies or other less interference of policies buyers are often in a position to pay farmers less than the actual values of their crops Role of cattle Banking system, i.e. cash Cash production reserve, source of animal products for direct consumption, but mostly from small cattle and poultry Source: Adapted from Gommes, René (1998): Climate-related Risk in Agriculture. A Note Prepared for the IPCC Expert Meeting on Risk Management Methods, Toronto, AES, Environment, p. 11. prices reached unprecedented heights throughout the Pacific, the four kava exporting countries Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga and Samoa all experienced huge increases in the value of kava exports.
47. Traditionally, kava was planted as part of a multi-crop food garden (see Box 7) at 600 to 1,000 plants per ha to minimise the dangers of disease and wind damage Ð the two greatest risks to this crop. In Vanuatu, which is currently the main kava producing area, young farmers are now planting kava, at a very high density (10,000 plants per ha), which will be harvested over a period of 5 years. At prevailing prices, these production methods generate high returns to both land and labour. However, there are also drawbacks. Wage labour has to be hired and household labour needs to be diverted from self-sufficiency. Given the high frequency of cyclones in Vanuatu and Fiji, there is a reasonable probability that one will affect an intensive kava plantation once in a five-year production cycle. The most damaging times would be years 3 and 4, when half of the crop remains to be harvested and the crops are Box 7: The Resilience of Traditional Agricultural Production Systems in the Pacific Islands
Most Pacific island countries retain strong traditional agricultural production systems. Traditional disaster mitigation has been based on multi-crop food gardens protected by forest. Gardens are planted to a variety of crops, often inter-planted as single plants or with patches of one crop. The soft yams are planted first and take pride of place where the garden offers the best conditions for their cultivation. Other crops follow: sugar cane, island cabbage, naviso, pineapple, pawpaw, water melon, tomato, chinese cabbage, sweet potato, manioc, bananas, taro, and kava. A single garden will generally contain many varieties of yam or taro and several other crops.
The resilience of Pacific island smallholder agriculture hinges on this integrated system Ð the system being stronger than the sum of its components. The systems are adjusted for resource endowments, seasonal factors, and occasional disasters caused by cyclones, drought and volcanic eruptions. This remains the basis of disaster mitigation strategies throughout the region.
Source: Adjusted from: McGregor, Andrew (1999): Linking Market Development to Farming Systems in the Pacific Islands. FAO-SAPA Publication 1999/2.
sufficiently large to be completely lost to a severe cyclone. If torrential rain accompanies the cyclone, the long-term loss from soil erosion could be even greater. The sustainability of this intensive kava production system thus remains to be seen.31
48. Agricultural officers frequently hold a vision of an export-oriented, commercialised agricultural system modelled on those of industrialised countries rather than favouring diverse gardens as described in Box 732 . The economic value of traditional food production systems tends to be unrecognised by agricultural and national planners and is usually under-estimated in national accounts.33 And yet any alteration to an agricultural system can reduce or enhance vulnerability to storm disasters.
49. When introducing improved agricultural practices, trade-offs between yield and susceptibility to natural hazards have to be borne in mind and need to feature in cost-benefit analyses. High yielding varieties, which may do well in a stable
31 For more details see: McGregor, Andrew (1999): Linking Market Development to Farming Systems in the Pacific Islands. FAO-SAPA Publication 1999/2, pp. 21-23. 32 Paulson, Deborah D. and Steve Rogers (1997): Maintaining Subsistence Security in Western Samoa, Geoforum, Vol. 28, p. 182. 33 See McGregor, Andrew (1999): Linking Market Development to Farming Systems in the Pacific Islands. FAO-SAPA Publication 1999/2, p. 9. environment may be more susceptible to the risks of natural hazards.34 However, they may allow for changes in cropping patterns so that critical stages in crop development no longer coincide with periods of elevated cyclone risk. Policy makers need to be aware of how macro-economic conditions influence decisions at farm-household level that affect the resilience of agricultural systems. The interrelationships between ecological and economic factors also need to be reflected in land use planning.
50. There are ample participatory methodologies and tools for land resource planning and management that have been developed and adapted at country level. These provide opportunities for working with planning bodies to improve their capacities to take appropriate actions (from warning to response) to reduce agricultural vulnerability to storms.35 Designing short- and long-term strategies to natural disaster mitigation is one of the critical issues that can be addressed following the principles put forth by the Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD). The CSD highlights the importance of addressing land planning and management through a holistic approach, such as ecosystem management.36
4.2 Micro-Macro Linkages in Agricultural Vulnerability Reduction Strategies
51. The case of kava in the Pacific Islands presented in Section 4.1 above illustrates the need to create strong micro-macro linkages when designing agricultural and disaster mitigation policies. Similarly, the lessons learned from FAO field projects (Section 3) point to the need to complement the preparation of national disaster mitigation plans with community plans and awareness-raising activities. Micro-macro linkages are particularly important for the agriculture-specific components of disaster mitigation plans. Farming systems analysis is a suitable approach with which to draw upon such linkages.
52. Farming systems are embedded in a hierarchy of interdependent levels, ranging from international systems to crop/livestock systems, as indicated in Table 2. Following a farming systems approach, agriculture-specific mitigation strategies can be attributed to different levels used in farming systems analysis. This illustrates that for agricultural vulnerability reduction to be effective, action should be specified for each level of the system. Measures implemented at higher levels (e.g. policy level) need to be consistent with the action and desired outcomes at lower levels (e.g. farm- household level) of the system. Examples of measures to be taken at different levels are provided in Table 2.
34 The traditional ‘aman’ rice in Bangladesh for example, has the capacity to grow up to 10 cm a day when flood levels increase, which is a characteristic that high yielding varieties do not have. 35 Personal communication, Sally Bunning, Land Resources Officer, Land and Water Division, FAO, April 2001. 36 Progress in Implementing Integrated Approaches to the Planning and Management of Land Resources. Overview of the Task Manager’s Report to CSD-8. http://faoint0b.fao.org/ag/agl/agll/poliplan/docs/ csd8summ.pdf Table 2. Farming Systems and Resilience to Storm-Related Disasters
Systems Hierarchy Examples of Action Areas for Storm Mitigation
Global Level address climate change; cyclone early warning.
Regional Level hazard risk mapping and farming systems vulnerability mapping; regional watershed management; regional mitigation policies; networks for exchange of lessons and best practices.
National Level effective networking among relevant government units and NGOs with regard to mitigation planning; integration of disaster mitigation in agricultural policies; addressing policy constraints to mitigation (land tenure, gender issues); identification of vulnerable areas, communities, households; specification of building codes and standards; mitigation awareness creation.
Sub-national Level decentralised watershed management; participatory land use planning; risk and vulnerability analysis; mitigation planning and capacity building.
Farming Systems systematise traditional knowledge on farming Level practices; identify and analyse farmer innovation; define agricultural research and extension strategies.
Farm/Household diversify livelihood sources; Level diversify agricultural production with a view to increase resilience; improve construction and create storm shelters; improved storage, preservation and processing of crops and food, particularly before the cyclone season.
Crop/Livestock apply appropriate land preparation System Level methods; select storm resistant crops and varieties. 53. There is a need to further develop the framework provided in Table 2. This could be undertaken in the context of projects aimed at developing agriculture-specific mitigation-strategies. The framework is also suitable as a tool for creating awareness among policy-makers on the importance of micro-macro linkages in disaster mitigation and could be used in workshops that involve both farmers and policy-makers from local and national levels.
54. As indicated in Table 2, vulnerability reduction measures include agricultural diversification, use of hazard-resistant agricultural practices (soil conservation, wind breaks, cropping systems), siting of highly vulnerable agricultural infrastructure in low-risk zones, and the design and construction of hazard-resistant and protective structures/infrastructure. In the fisheries sector, storm-resistant measures can include stronger buildings and facilities, supply of life-saving devices and boat improvement. Protective measures in forestry can include windbreaks, tree selection, etc. Insurance schemes for crops, livestock, fisheries or forests can also be classified as vulnerability reduction measures.37
55. The above examples can be expanded to a whole range of agricultural, forestry and fisheries practices which increase the resilience of farming, forestry and fisheries systems and reduce susceptibility to storm damage, if applied in the appropriate context. Some further examples for mitigation through the introduction of changes in agricultural systems include:
At crop/livestock system level:
introducing more storm-resistant crops (e.g. tannia, ginger and pineapple, root crops); planting of forestry windbreaks or shelterbelts; planting of tree and grass species for physical slope stabilization; refuges for livestock; growing quick-maturing local crop varieties instead of high yielding varieties on land susceptible to flooding. At farm/household level:
renting land of different types, so as to minimise the risk of any particular disaster ruining all crops; preserving a stock of seeds of quick-maturing crops for replanting; constructing brick (instead of thatch) buildings, storm shelters, fishing jetties and mooring buoys; constructing earth platforms to raise homestead ground levels; protecting homestead grounds from being washed away; planting trees close to the home stead for rescue from floods;
37 FAO (1999): Geographic Information System Enhancement for Hurricane Preparedness and Impact Mitigation. Prepared by Cassandra T. Rogers for TCP/RLA/6616. flood-resistant food storage as emergency supplies; storage areas for seeds/fertilizers; savings of both money and food; portable earthen cooking stoves; improved sanitation facilities. At community level:
drainage works where roads, settlements and arable land are vulnerable to landslide and flood following heavy rains; construction of small-scale embankments, dams, canals, improved drainage systems for the protection of arable and grazing land from flood and tidal bores in coastal areas; provision of multi-purpose community shelters; improvement of village roads/footpaths; improvement of community/market places; management and preservation of mangrove areas.38
56. Crop diversification plays a key role in increasing the resilience of agricultural systems. However, crop diversification, as well as other practical measures listed above require a suitable policy framework to strengthen the resilience of agricultural systems. Therefore the consistency and compatibility of measures taken at various level is of critical importance for effective disaster mitigation in agriculture.
57. The information required for farming systems-based mitigation plans is highly complex and location-specific and, in addition to information on livelihood strategies, includes environmental information, such as factors determining the length of the growing season (climate, land and soil types, hydrology) as well as modifications to these factors (irrigation, drainage terracing). Equally important is land use formation, such as existing vegetation and cropping patterns, agricultural management practices, inputs available, and market information. This can provide a basis for suitability assessments of crop, livestock, fisheries and forestry practices. An example of detailed land, soil and crop specific precautionary and rehabilitation measures in case of flood or cyclones in Bangladesh can be found in Brammer’s analysis of agricultural disaster management in Bangladesh.39
38 Mangrove areas protect coastal villages and crops on low lying lands (e.g. swamp taro gardens) from cyclone induced high seas/swells. Mangrove areas are not only threatened by increasing demand for lagoon areas for aquaculture purposes (e.g. fish, crab and shrimp farming) but also by extended land claims for the construction of houses and roads. In April 2001, Tonga and Samoa experienced high waves created by Cyclone “Sose” which hit Vanuatu and then travelled South towards New Caledonia. These high swells created by the tropical storm coincided with an extremely high tide and washed away houses in low lying areas in Tonga, damaged the Eua fresh produce market, the wharf and destroyed crops (Personal communication: Heiko Bamann, Farming Systems Development & Marketing Officer, FAOSAPA, 17 April 2001). 39 Brammer, Hugh (1999), Agricultural Disaster Management in Bangladesh, pp. 265-271. 58. The lack of specific environmental and land use information may be one important constraint for governments in formulating agriculture-specific mitigation plans.40 However, while government officials at national level may not be aware of location-specific land use information, farmers living in a particular area of local council members may well be aware. What is therefore needed is to systematise farmers’ traditional knowledge and the inclusion of farmers and community members in the preparation of local mitigation and preparedness plans.
59. FAO, UNEP and other institutions are collaborating in collecting information and developing specific databases, guidelines, maps, indicators, information systems and other tools and networks (e.g. agro-ecological zoning (AEZ), digital soil maps, etc.) to support national, regional and international planning and management of land resources. Considerable progress has been made in developing databases and information systems (including GIS) on land resources and use. However, efforts are still needed for land use analysis at national levels to collect existing knowledge and local, national and international experiences in a more systematic and detailed manner.41
60. National Food Insecurity and Vulnerability Information and Mapping Systems (FIVIMS) may be able to provide an umbrella for the systematic integration of agro-ecological and socio-economic information required for disaster prevention and mitigation. The FIVIMS initiative draws on existing information systems, such as crop forecasting and early warning systems, household food security and nutritional information systems, and vulnerability assessment and mapping systems. Farming systems vulnerability mapping, i.e. blending agro-ecological information, socio-economic information with storm hazard risks may well have a place in national and sub-national FIVIMS efforts. A separate agenda item will deal with related issues more in-depth.42
61. In summary, many agricultural development projects and programmes in risk-prone environments must be designed in such a way as to help reduce farmer vulnerability to losses from cyclones, floods, and other natural hazards. In fact, in natural hazard mitigation, the vast majority of disaster management activities is related to development programmes; only a small portion is related to emergency response.43 FAO and member governments should intensify efforts to mainstream disaster mitigation principles in agricultural and rural development programmes and support field level approaches for agricultural vulnerability reduction through appropriate agricultural policies.
40 ibid., p. 388. 41 Progress in Implementing Integrated Approaches to the Planning and Management of Land Resources. Overview of the Task Manager’s Report to CSD-8. http://faoint0b.fao.org/ag/agl/agll/poliplan/docs/ csd8summ.pdf 42 For more details see the conference document: Asia FIVIMS for Disaster Preparedness, APDC/01/9. 43 http://epdweb.engr.wisc.edu/dmc/courses/aimscope/AA02-01.html 5. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
1. Storm-related disasters need to be analysed in the context of the probability, frequency and intensity of storm hazards as well as system vulnerability, i. e. its propensity to experience substantial impact. Therefore, hazard mapping and early warning as well as vulnerability analysis and long-term mitigation planning are important components for reducing agricultural vulnerability to storm-related disasters. Farming systems vulnerability mapping, i.e. overlaying maps of areas prone to storms with farming systems maps could be an entry point to analysing farming systems-specific vulnerability factors and to develop corresponding mitigation and rehabilitation measures.
2. Reducing agricultural vulnerability to storm-related disasters requires action prior, during and after disasters occur. Emphasis should be laid on pre-disaster mitigation through strengthening the resilience of agricultural systems and the awareness and preparedness of risk-prone rural communities. Agriculture-specific mitigation measures prior to storm disasters need to enhance the resilience of agricultural systems. Post-cyclone measures must focus on limiting storm damage, for example, by harvesting and conserving damaged food crops or timber.
3. Given that areas prone to storm-related disasters are frequently also susceptible to other disasters (e.g. drought), mitigation measures for storm-related disasters need to be planned jointly with measures addressing the potential effects of other area-specific disaster types. This implies that the resilience of farming systems needs to be strengthened in such a way as to factor the various hazard types that may strike a particular area. Disaster management and mitigation plans for storm-related disasters therefore need be integrated in overall disaster management plans.
4. FAO’s experience has shown that storm mitigation planning at national level needs to be coupled with community awareness and training programmes and with the preparation of community level action plans. Participatory planning processes and integrated approaches that address biophysical as well as human dimensions are essential for the effective involvement of all socio-economic groups and for negotiation among different interest groups to resolve conflicts and build consensus.
5. Agriculture-specific mitigation responses require an analysis of which and how cropping and animal husbandry systems and practices may help to increase the resilience of agricultural systems, as well as how men and women obtain their livelihoods. Production-based approaches to mitigation planning therefore need to be broadened to encompass agricultural systems- and client-based approaches. Vulnerability reduction strategies require policies and programmes that address the human factor of production, as well as the livelihood systems and assets of the producers, differentiated by gender. 6. Given that information on farming systems-based mitigation plans is highly complex and location specific, traditional knowledge is a key source for the development of agricultural vulnerability reduction strategies to storm-related disasters. Men and women farmers should be active participants in the preparation of agriculture-specific mitigation plans.
7. Mitigation strategies need to be consistent across the various levels used in farming systems analysis (such as crop/livestock, farm/household, farming systems, agro-ecological regions). Global level action comprises measures related to climate change and variability. Regional level action needs to focus on cyclone early warning, regional watershed management plans, and on mediation of competition for natural resources. National level action should focus on the integration of mitigation aspects in national agricultural policies and planning and promote awareness-building among policy-makers, planners, technical specialists and rural communities. Farming/household systems level action should address agricultural and livelihood diversification and risk management. Storm mitigation measures at the farm/household and crop/ livestock systems level need to be developed specific to each location, based on local knowledge and practices. Monitoring and feedback are needed to ensure that actions and mechanisms at higher system levels reinforce interventions at lower levels.
8. Livelihood, land use and environmental information is critical for appropriate mitigation planning. The lack of information on land use and land use management practices at local and sub-national levels may pose a constraint to adequate mitigation strategies for the agricultural sector. While considerable progress has been made in developing databases and information systems on land resources and use, efforts are still needed for land use analysis at local levels. National Food Insecurity and Vulnerability Information and Mapping Systems (FIVIMS) may be able to provide an umbrella for the systematic integration of agro-ecological and socio-economic information required for disaster prevention and mitigation.
9. Macro-economic incentives can change agricultural production systems considerably and alter the patterns of vulnerability to storm-related disasters. It is important that are evaluated in terms of how they influence the resilience of agricultural systems. Trade-offs between agricultural output and susceptibility to natural hazards need to feature in cost-benefit analyses. Agricultural and economic policies need to enhance the competitiveness of agricultural practices that increase the resilience of agricultural systems to disaster shocks. Agricultural policies also need to address policy constraints to sound mitigation strategies (land tenure, policies encouraging the conversion of forests to other land use, agricultural intensification in floodplains and coastal areas, etc.). 10. The economic value of traditional food production systems and the potential trade-offs between land and labour productivity and disaster resilience tend to be largely unrecognised by agricultural officers and national planners. Therefore policy makers, provincial and district planners, extension officers and rural communities need to be made aware of how economic incentives influence farm-household decisions and the resilience of agricultural systems to storm-disasters.
11. Governments need to introduce disaster preparedness, response and mitigation into their land resources policy and planning processes and into their agricultural and environmental strategies and action plans through capacity building of planning and technical staff from national to local levels. Moreover, as a complex multidisciplinary issue, disaster management requires strengthened co-ordination between concerned institutions and the diverse sectors involved (natural resources, health, transport, etc.). BIBLIOGRAPHY
Blaikie, Piers, Terry Cannon and Ben Wisner (1994): At Risk: National Hazards, People’s Vulnerability, and Disasters. Brammer, Hugh (1999), Agricultural Disaster Management in Bangladesh. FAO (2001): Global Farming Systems Study: Challenges and Priorities to 2030, Synthesis and Global Overview. FAO (2000): Reducing Agricultural Vulnerability to Storm-related Disasters. COAG/ 01/6. FAO (2000): Twenty-fifth FAO Regional Conference for Asia and the Pacific, Yokohama, Japan, 28 August to 1 September 2000. Conference Report. FAO (2000): Strengthening FAO’s Capacity to Prepare for and Respond to Emergencies. Internal Report. FAO (1992): The Role of Agrometeorology in the Alleviation of Natural Disasters. FAO Agrometeorology Series Working Paper prepared by Gommes, Rene and Th. Nègre, Number 2. Gommes, René (1998): Climate-related Risk in Agriculture. A Note Prepared for the IPCC Expert Meeting on Risk Management Methods, Toronto, AES, Environment Canada. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001): A Report of Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Summary for Policymakers. http://www.ipcc.ch/. McGregor, Andrew (1999): Linking Market Development to Farming Systems in the Pacific Islands. FAO-SAPA Publication 1999/2. OECD (1994): Guidelines on Disaster Mitigation. Paulson, Deborah D. and Steve Rogers (1997): Maintaining Subsistence Security in Western Samoa, Geoforum, Vol. 28, pp. 173-187. SPC/UNDP/AusAID/FAO Pacific Island Forests and Trees Support Programme (1999): Proceedings of a Regional Workshop on the Management of Cyclone Damage to Forests and Trees in South Pacific Island Countries, 20-24 October 1997. RAS/97/330 Field Document No. 2 October 1999. UN Samoa (2001): Combating the Effects of Cyclones on Food Security. Theme Group on Rural Development and Food Security of the United Nations in Samoa. Edited by Lance Polu. University of Wisconsin: About Natural Hazards: Causes and Effects. http:// epdweb.engr.wisc.edu/dmc/courses/hazards/BB02-intro.html USAID (1999): Watershed Management for Hurricane Reconstruction and Natural Disaster Vulnerability Reduction, USAID Contribution to the Discussion of Ecological and Social Vulnerability Consultative Group for the Reconstruction and Transformation of Central America, Stockholm, Sweden, May 25, 1999. http://hurricane.info.usaid.gov/stockenv.htm WFP (1998): Prevention and Preparedness: Mitigating the Effects of Natural Disasters. Paper prepared by Robin Jackson, Strategy and Policy Division, WFP. World Bank (2000): World Development Report 2000/2001. Chapter 9: Managing Crisis. and Natural Disasters. WHO/WMO/UNEP (1996): Climate Change and Human Health. An Assessment Prepared by a Task Group of the World Health Organisation, the World Meteorological Organisation and the United Nations Environment Programme. Editors: McMichael, A.J.; A. Haines, R. Sloof, and S. Kovats. GLOSSARY
Alert: Notice issued indicating the probability or proximity of a dangerous event.
Contingency planning: a series of assessments and evaluations followed by the development of proposed plans of action in anticipation of a natural or human-made disaster. This involves:
1) identification of the potential threat; 2) identification of likely impact of disaster, e.g. number of people potentially affected, disruption of food or water supply, transportation system, or communication channels, damage to property, roads, health facilities, duration of disaster and itseffects; 3) anticipating and developing optimum response to such a threat, e.g., educate/alert population to potential risk, develop notification and evacuation plans, provide means of transporting people, food and medical supplies; 4) identification of existing resources, e.g. areas where shelters could be established, sources of food, water and medical supplies, communication and transportation systems, location of reconstruction equipment.
Cyclone: a large-scale closed circulation system in the earth’s atmosphere with relatively low barometric pressure and winds that blow counter-clockwise around the centre in the northern hemisphere and clockwise in the southern hemisphere. Called “cyclone” in Indian Ocean and South Pacific; “hurricane” in Western Atlantic and Eastern Pacific; “typhoon” in Western Pacific.
Disaster: occurrence of widespread severe damage, injury, or loss of life or property, with which a community cannot cope and during which the affected society undergoes severe disruption.
Eye (of the storm): the calm centre of a tropical cyclone.
Flash flood: a sudden and extreme volume of water that flows rapidly and causes inundation of land areas. It can result in heavy loss of life and destruction of property.
Hazard: physical forces (hurricane, flood, volcano, etc.) that, when in proximity to populations, may cause disasters.
Hazard maps: maps that identify types and degrees of hazards, and natural phenomena of areas that may be affected by disasters.
Landslide: a rapid or marginally rapid downhill movement of soil and rock. Mitigation: Measures taken to reduce the damage, disruption and casualties caused by disasters. Mitigation is therefore a broad notion that incorporates two other terms which are often used in the literature, namely disaster prevention, and disaster preparedness. Mitigation includes long-term measures taken to reduce the effects of disaster through alteration of the physical environment, such as floodplain zoning and control, afforestation, land terracing, torrent control, sand dune stabilization, and planting of shelterbelts or windbreaks.
Prevention: Measures aimed at impeding the occurrence of a hazard event and/or preventing such an event causing damage, disruption and casualties.
Preparedness: Measures taken in advance of an emergency that develop operational capabilities to respond rapidly to disasters and reduce to the minimum level possible the loss of human lives and other damage. Preparedness is concerned with understanding the threat, forecasting and warning; educating and training officials and the population; establishing organization for and management of disaster situations, including preparation of operational plans, training relief groups, stockpiling supplies, and earmarking necessary funds.
Relief: Immediate action taken with the objective to save lives, alleviate suffering and reduce economic losses. This includes the search, rescue and provision of shelter, water, food and medical care.
Rehabilitation: Short-term recovery of basic services and initiation of repair of basic services as well as of physical, social and economic damages.
Reconstruction: The medium and long-term repair of physical, social and economic damage and the return of affected structures to a condition equal to/or better than before the disaster.
Risk Assessment: an assessment of the chance of loss or adverse consequences when physical and social elements are exposed to potentially harmful natural hazards. The consequences include: damage, loss of economic value, loss of function, loss of natural resources, loss of ecological systems, environmental impact, deterioration of health, mortality, and morbidity. Risk assessments integrate hazard assessments with the vulnerability of the exposed elements at risk to seek reliable answers to the following questions: 1. What can happen? 2. How likely are each of the possible outcomes? 3. When the possible outcomes happen, what are the likely consequences and losses?
Vulnerability: the extent to which a country, area, community or structure risks being damaged by a disaster.
(240 blank) Annex XII APDC/01/8
LONG-RANGE CLIMATE FORECASTS FOR AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC By A.R. Subbiah Kamal Kishore Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC)* Thailand
ABSTRACT
It has long been recognized that if society could have advance information on weather, the adverse effects associated with it could be minimized. Prevalence of traditional forecast practices in various parts of the world reflects the demand for long-range forecasts to manage uncertainties associated with climate variability. Recent advancements in climate prediction promise huge benefits for the society. However, 1997-98 El Niño management experiences reveal that a large gap exists between potential value of forecast information and the actual utilisation of this information for managing agricultural systems for societal benefits. There is a need to take concerted efforts to address these gaps to take full advantage of climate prediction advances.
This paper focuses on issues relating to the evolution of long lead forecast over a period of time in the Asia-Pacific monsoon region, recent advances in ENSO prediction and its potential value for managing agricultural systems. The paper, while drawing experiences from the application of long lead forecast in recent years, also highlights emerging issues for future action.
* ADPC is a technical resource center dedicated to disaster reduction for safer communities and sustainable development in Asia and the Pacific.
241 CONTENTS
Page SECTION Ð 1 ...... 245 1.1 Evolution of long-range forecasts in the tropics...... 245 1.2 Indian monsoon ...... 245 1.3 Indonesia and Australia Monsoon ...... 246 1.4 El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction ...... 248
SECTION Ð 2 POTENTIAL VALUE OF ENSO FORECASTS ...... 250 2.1 Farm level ...... 250 2.2 Provincial level ...... 251 2.3 National level...... 251 2.4 Insights from Crop Models ...... 252 2.4.1 Australia ...... 252 2.4.2 System for Analysis Research & Training (START) in Global Change Climate Prediction for Agriculture Programme ...... 253
SECTION Ð 3 THE EXPERIENCES OF APPLICATION OF ENSO INDEX BASED LONG RANGE FORECAST ...... 254 3.1 Australia...... 255 3.2 Indonesia ...... 255 3.3 Philippines ...... 257 3.4 Vietnam ...... 258 3.5 Fiji ...... 258
SECTION Ð 4 EMERGING ISSUES ...... 259 4.1 Delimitation ENSO sensitive sectors, seasons and regions ...... 259 4.2 Utilisation of climate forecast with coarse resolution ...... 260 4.3 Articulation of users’ needs ...... 260 4.4 Integration of intra-seasonal oscillations ...... 261 4.5 A system’s approach for climate forecast and application system ...... 261
REFERENCES ...... 263
242 Abbreviations and Acronyms
ADPC Asian Disaster Preparedness Center ASMC ASEAN Specialized Meteorological Center BMG Bureau of Meteorology and Geophysics Ð Indonesia BOM Bureau of Meteorology Ð Australia BPPT Bureau of Assessment and Application of Technology CLIMAG Climate Prediction and Agriculture ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FMS Fiji Meteorological Service HMS Hydro-meteorological Service Ð Vietnam IMD India Meteorological Department IRI International Research Institute for Climate Prediction ITCZ Inter-tropical Convergence Zone MFA Most favorable areas MSA Most severely affected areas NRC National Research Council LRF Long-range Forecast PAR Philippine Area of Responsibility PAGASA Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Service Administration SOI Southern Oscillation Index SST Sea Surface Temperature START System for Analysis Research and Training TOGA Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere Program
243 While climate variability associated impacts on crop production vary from year to year, there has been a significant increase in crop production loss during certain years due to occurrence of extreme climate events. For instance, in Indonesia, the rice crop area affected by drought during 1997-98 extended up to 867,997 hectares resulting in a loss of around 3 million tonnes (Govt. of Indonesia, 2000). The reduced rice production coinciding with economic crisis lead to 300 per cent increase in price of rice. The Government of Indonesia imported around 5 million tonnes of rice in order to maintain price levels and ensure food security to substantial number of households (ADPC, 1998). In the Philippines, during 1997-98, drought affected 600,000 hectares of rice and corn lands resulting in loss of around 1.2 million tonnes of food-grain (ADPC, 1997). In Fiji, 50 per cent of the annual sugarcane production was lost affecting 200,000 farmers during 1997-98 (Kaloumaria, 2001). In Bangladesh, a severe flood in 1998 caused crop loss of around 2.2 million tonnes affecting 25 million people (FAO, 1998).
It has long been recognized if society could have advance information on weather the adverse effects associated with it could be minimized. Prevalence of traditional forecast practices in various parts of the world reflects the demand for long-range forecasts to manage uncertainties associated with climate variability. Recent advancements in the climate prediction promise huge benefits for the society. However, 1997-98 El Niño management experiences reveal that a large gap exists between potential value of forecast information and the actual utilisation of this information for managing agricultural systems for societal benefits. There is a need to take concerted efforts to address these gaps to take full advantage of climate prediction advancements.
This paper focuses on issues relating to evolution of long lead forecast over a period of time in the Asia-Pacific monsoon region, recent advances in ENSO prediction and its potential value for managing agricultural systems. The paper while drawing experiences from the application of long lead forecast in recent years also highlights emerging issues for future action.
The paper draws information from Australia, India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam. The paper is structured into the following sections.
Section Ð 1: Evolution of long lead forecast in the Asia-Pacific region
Section Ð 2: Potential value of ENSO based long lead forecasts for agriculture sector
Section Ð 3: Application experiences of long lead forecasts during 1997-98 in the Asia-Pacific region
Section Ð 4: Emerging issues for feature action in the Asia-Pacific region.
244 SECTION Ð 1
1.1 Evolution of long-range forecasts in the tropics
Traditional forecast
1. In many parts of the Asia-Pacific regions, agriculture plays a significant role in sustaining livelihood systems of the communities. The year to year variability of monsoon behaviour prompted agrarian communities to search for potential clues to put in place advance measures to manage risks. They have developed their own methods of climate forecasting based on generations of experience, local religious beliefs and close observations of their environment to anticipate weather patterns (Sukradi W., 1998). The communities rely on interpretation of cloud colour and form, animal behaviour, flowering of certain plants etc. as indicators of seasonal conditions. Many of these observations have been coded in folk songs, rhymes, and thus passed through generations. While use of these prediction methods varied from community to community, the prevalence of traditional forecasting methods reflects the demand for advance climate information to cope with climate variability in planning for agricultural operations (Eakin 2000).
1.2 Indian monsoon
2. Efforts were made to forecast monsoon behaviour one month and beyond on scientific basis in the late 19th Century in India and subsequently in Indonesia.
3. In 1877, India experienced a serious famine caused by highly deficient monsoon rainfall. In response to this, the Government of India called upon H.F. Blanford to prepare monsoon forecasts (Krishna Kumar, 1994). Thus, Blanford was the first to attempt a forecast of the monsoon based on the hypothesis that “varying extend and thickness of the Himalayan snows exercise a great and prolonged influence on the climate conditions and weather of the plains of northwest India” (Blandford 1884) The success of Blanford’s tentative forecasts during 1882-85 encouraged him to start operational Long Range Forecast (LRF) of monsoon rainfall covering the whole of India and Burma in 1886. Since then the LRF of the monsoon has become an important operational task of the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Sir John Elliot (1895) utilised the weather conditions over the whole of India and surrounding regions to prepare an elaborate forecast of the monsoon rainfall. The forecasts after 1895 were based on: (i) Himalayan snow cover, October to May (ii) local peculiarities of pre-monsoon weather in India, and (iii) local peculiarities over the Indian Ocean and Australia (Thapliyal 1987).
4. Sir Gilbert Walker (1910) did pioneering work on the Southern Oscillation and published a prediction formula for India monsoon forecasting containing 22 predictors in six forecast formulae differentiated regionally (Banerjee, 1950).
245 5. Walker also succeeded in removing the subjectivity in the earlier forecast methods by involving, for the first time, the concept of correlation in the field of LRF of monsoon rainfall. Subsequent to Walker’s work, very little progress was made in LRF of monsoon rainfall until the early 1980s. In 1988, a new forecast model known as “Parametric and Power Regression Model” was developed and put into operational use by the India Meteorological Department. This model uses 16 regional and global land-ocean-atmospheric parameters, which are physically related with the Indian monsoon. Combining these parameters, a Power Regression Model has been developed to provide quantitative monsoon rainfall forecast for the country as a whole. The values of individual parameters that go into the model calculations are based on observations over different periods specific to the individual parameters. Some of these parameters are derived from the Indian area itself, while some of them are obtained from as far as South America. For a few of the parameters, observations right up to end of May are required, while some others are known during the preceding winter itself. Thus IMD is in a position to issue the monsoon forecast only by the end of May i.e. before one month of the start of the monsoon season (June-September).
6. The forecast issued with the help of this technique since 1988 has been found to be fairly accurate. A table showing the forecast and actual performance of the monsoon since 1988 is shown in the table 1.
Table 1. Monsoon performance Ð actual and forecast (1988-1996) Rainfall for the country as a whole ( per cent of long term mean)
YEAR ACTUAL FORECAST 1988 119 113 1989 101 102 1990 106 101 1991 91 94 1992 93 92 1993 100 103 1994 110 92 1995 100 97 1996 103 96 Source: India Meteorological Department.
1.3 Indonesia and Australia Monsoon
7. The inter-annual variability of rainfall over Indonesia attracted the attention of Dutch meteorologists. As early as 1919, Braak recognized the essential relationship between long-term pressure, wind and rainfall variations in the Indonesian regions. He established that forecasting for the east monsoon rainfall (June-September) was possible with atmospheric pressure as sole indicator (Jose A.M., 1989).
246 8. Of great interest for Indonesian monsoon forecasting was Nicholl’s (1981, 1983) direct follow-up of Braak’s (1919) ideas more than 60 years earlier, namely to use Darwin pressure in the first half of the calendar year to predict Java rainfall during the second semester. Nicholl’s (1981, 1983) constructed a linear single-parameter regression model of Djakarta September-November rainfall versus Darwin August pressure during 1951-1969 and then used this relationship to predict the rainfall during each of the years 1970-1980. The model proved to be capable of explaining 44 per cent of the inter-annual rainfall variance.
9. Nicholls and Woodcock (1981) and Nicholls (1981) demonstrated that spring (September-November) rainfall in North Australia region could be predicted some months in advance by verifying successfully, earlier work of several pioneers of long-range forecasting (e.g. Walker, Braak, Berlage and Qualyle). The only predictor used in the studies was monthly mean Darwin surface pressure, observed several months earlier. Nicholls et. al., (1982) extended the earlier work by defining a date of wet-season onset in the area around Darwin and demonstrated that this onset date could also be predicted some months in advance.
10. Improvements have been made in the seasonal prediction of the Indonesian rainfall and the current scheme has been in operation since 1993. This is essentially a statistical-analogue scheme based on a very detailed analysis of rainfall data for 102 regions. The seasonal forecasts are based on the following techniques;
1. Statistical (regression) techniques based on relationships between rainfall and SOI. 2. Probability methods based on the time series of rainfall for that district. 3. Auto-regressive techniques based on the time series. 4. General synoptic experience in monitoring the situation current at the time of issuance of the forecast and the seasonal outlook of Bureau of Meteorology, Australia.
11. Most of the studies in Long-range forecasts are primarily based on statistical and empirical techniques. Diagnostic studies of historical datasets over the years have produced several predictors for monsoon rainfall forecasting. These parameters represent different components of the coupled atmosphere-ocean-land system.
12. Although a large number of predictors have been identified so far, uncertainty still prevails in identifying the best set of predictors in view of multi-co linearity, temporal variations of the relationships, lack of knowledge about the exact physical mechanisms relating to cause-and-effect.
13. These long lead forecasts have been used as general alerts to the national policy makers to mobilize resources to manage potential natural hazards.
247 1.4 El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction
14. The monsoon forecasts of Australia, India and Indonesia considered southern oscillation as one of the predictors since early part of the 20th century. However, the connection between El Niño and Southern Oscillation was appreciated in the late 1960s principally through the work of Jacob Bjerkins. He discovered the tropical coupling between El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
15. The last decade witnessed a major advance in understanding the predictability of the atmosphere at seasonal to inter-annual time-scale (Palmer and Anderson, 1993; NRC, 1996; Carson, 1998). The major impetus in current seasonal to inter-annual time scale prediction efforts was provided by the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Programme, which was carried between 1985-1994. Results from TOGA demonstrated that it is possible to predict Pacific Ocean El-Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) over time scales extending from a few months to over 1 year.
16. ENSO, is one of the known key drivers to inter-annual variability, and have been associated with worldwide extreme climate anomalies, including changes in the space-time patterns of floods, droughts, cyclone/severe storms activity, cold/hot spells etc. (Rasmusson and Wallace, 1983; Cane et at., 1986; Ogallo, 1988; Ropelewski and Halpert, 1989; NRC, 1996).
17. The following ENSO patterns have intrinsic value for predicting future climatic conditions.
18. Annual Phase locking: No two El Niño events are ever the same. They differ in intensity and duration. Yet, as research continues on El Niño – Southern Oscillation phenomena, certain patterns are discernible. One such significant pattern is that El Niño episodes are generally phase-locked to an annual cycle. This means that if an El Niño (or its reserve, La Nina) becomes established by the middle of a calendar year, it will not alter until sometime early in the following year. As a consequence, most El Niño begins and end during the period between March and June.
19. This ‘phase-locked’ pattern is particularly critical for countries like Australia Indonesia and the Philippines since such patterning has its effects on different seasonal monsoon. The most important period of rainfall occurs during crucial monsoonal months. The intensity of an El Niño episode during these months has a considerable effect on rainfall and cropping systems in virtually all areas of high production and high population (Fox J., 2000).
20. Amplified climate variability: One feature of rainfall fluctuations in areas affected by ENSO is the large inter-annual variability. Conrad (1941) examined the dependence of inter annual rainfall variability on the long-term mean annual rainfall. He found a strong relationship between relative variability (defined as the mean of the absolute deviations of annual rainfalls from the long-term mean, expressed as a
248 percentage of the long-term mean) and the long-term mean precipitation. The relative variability decreased, in general, as the mean precipitation increased. Some of these deviations were due to the influence of ENSO phenomenon on rainfall. Nicholls (1988) and Nicholls and Wong (1990) confirmed on recent data that the ENSO amplifies rainfall variability in the areas it affects, relative to other areas. The amplification factor is substantial in certain areas, which also depend upon latitude and mean rainfall.
21. Biennial cycle: The phase locking, related to a biennial cycle, is a fundamental element of ENSO variability (Rasmusson et. al. 1990). The biennial mode means the El Niño events will often be preceded and/or followed by La Nina episodes, and vice-versa. In terms of rainfall, this means that year-to-year changes in rainfall can be extreme. The change from El Niño related drought to La Nina and wet conditions can be rapid, and usually occurs early in the calendar year (Nicholls 2000).
22. Seasonal variations in predictability: The SOI has a strong degree of persistence, such that it tends to retain the same value over the following months. Thus once an ENSO event is established, its persistence from one season to another can be used as a tool to predict seasonal rainfall. For example in Indonesia, following the methodology applied to Australia by McBride and Nicholls (1983), maps of lag correlation have been produced between the SOI and Indonesian rainfall in the following season. The greatest simultaneous relationship with SOI is for both June, July, August and September, October, November rainfall has been recognized. For this reason, three-month lag correlation between SOI and these two seasonal rainfalls has been established.
23. With regard to the June, July, August rainfall, statistically significant correlations exist over the central part of the country. Thus it opens the possibility of predicting June, July, August rainfall using the average value of the SOI from March to May. On the other hand, insignificant predictive information is found for most stations located over the ‘non-monsoonal’ areas, i.e. the northern part of Sumatra and Kalimantan as well as central Irian Jaya.
24. Stronger evidence for predictability using the precursor value of SOI is found for the September, October, November rainfall. This suggests that the low 1997 September, October, November rainfall experienced by most of these stations could actually have been predicted in advance (Kirano, 1998).
25. Thus, the ability to forecast some aspects of ENSO signals for time scales of months to over one year are currently being used to extrapolate the potential occurrences ENSO related extreme weather/climate events for specific seasons and regions of the world which have strong ENSO signals. Such information now forms crucial components of early warning systems, including the planning, management and operations of agricultural activities in some parts of the tropical regions.
249 SECTION Ð 2 POTENTIAL VALUE OF ENSO FORECASTS
2.1 Farm level
26. The long range forecast could provide the indications of monsoon rainfall variability. There were at least four significant aberrations in the rainfall behaviour could upset established crop calendars and crop yields. These are:
1. The commencement of rains may be quite early or considerably delayed 2. There may be prolonged ‘breaks’ during the cropping season 3. There may be spatial and/or temporal aberrations 4. The rains may terminate considerably early or continue for longer periods.
27. To deal with the above-mentioned aberrations, the farmers could respond to forecasts to undertake the following measures:
Change variety for one with shorter or longer duration. Change crop species or mix of species, especially combinations of cash and food crops. Implement soil and water conservation techniques. Increase or decrease area planted, either total, by crop, or by upland or lowland location. Adjust timing of land preparation. Increase or decrease borrowing for inputs. Sell or purchase livestock depending on anticipated cost and availability of feed. Remain in village or migrate to seek off-farm employment or better grazing for livestock.
28. In Java and Eastern Indonesian region, for example, in El Niño years, farmers are frequently misled by initial rains, which offer promise but then cease. The false rains tempted farmers to plant. However, as the rain cease later, the crops usually die due to dry spell. Most farmers keep some seed reserves in case they are forced to plant a second time during the wet season. Rarely do farmers have sufficient seed reserves for a third attempt at planting and by the time such a third planting seems necessary, there is little likelihood of success. In most of the El Niño years, the incidences of false rains were noticed. A long lead forecast could help farmers to wait till setting in of regular rains (Fox J., 2000).
250 2.2 Provincial level
29. Water Resource Management: The water resource management managers at the catchment/watershed level/river basin level could undertake pro-active measures to manage water resources. There is a potential possibility to introduce water budgeting arrangements to prioritise water use and allocate water resources among various competitive users. In areas where water availability for irrigation purposes is scarce, a campaign can be launched to advise farmers to provide minimum irrigation only at the critical crop stages. The lead-time available could be used for augmenting water resources by constructing small scale water harvesting structures and rehabilitate old irrigation structures.
30. Compensatory Cropping Programme: This has two dimensions. One is to try to compensate the crop loss in most severely affected areas (MSA) by intensifying the production programme and increasing yield in the most favorable areas (MFA) where there was expectations of good rainfall and availability of assured irrigation sources. The second is to make up the crop loss in the same area by taking up short duration cultivars.
31. Alternate Cropping Strategy: This strategy involves shifting of crops, which could be grown on the availability of soil moisture less than normal conditions. Farmers in Indonesia usually adopt this strategy by replacing paddy crop with maize and other secondary crops. The success of this strategy could depend on the government intervention in providing input and market support to the farmers.
32. The above-mentioned approaches needed to be matched with irrigation potential and agro-climate zonation maps to evolve suitable cropping pattern, keeping in view El Niño influences on rainfall pattern in various regions.
33. The provincial level institutions would have lead-time to provide agricultural input support, credit arrangements and technical advisories to enable the farmers to undertake contingency crop plants. The provincial level administration could also provide support for marketing the agricultural products.
2.3 National level
34. The national level institutions could provide the necessary support to provincial administration and the farming communities in terms of resources. The national government can undertake policy decisions to map out potential impact areas and target resources for mitigation measures. The national government could also undertake policy measures for export/import of agricultural commodities. The National Government could undertake measures to plan for food logistics such as procurement of food grains, transport and distribution to the potentially affected areas.
251 2.4 Insights from Crop Models
35. Climate patterns translate via rainfall variability into associated crop production variability. However, rainfall anomalies are not the only determinant of yield and factors such as starting soil moisture, temperature, planting dates and timeliness of rainfall strongly influence final yields. The crop simulation models capture these effects. As there is a potential value to integrate climate forecast information into crop models, certain initiatives have been taken recently to put in place-integrated climate crop models in Australia. Based on Australian experiences, these experimental projects are being tested in certain sites of the developing countries.
36. The following paragraphs capture the potential value of integrated climate crop models in Australia and India.
2.4.1 Australia
37. Significant, physically based lag-relationships exist between an index of ENSO and future rainfall amount and temporal distribution in eastern Australia. Australian scientists have shown how phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) are related to rainfall variability and are useful for rainfall forecasting for many locations in eastern Australia. For large parts of Eastern Australia, they have shown that a rapid rise in SOI over a two months period is related to a high probability of above long-term average rainfall at certain times of the year. Conversely, a consistently negative or rapidly falling SOI pattern is related to a high probability of below average rainfall for many regions in Australia at certain times of the year. As the SOI pattern tends to be ‘phase-locked’ into the annual cycle (from autumn to autumn), the SOI phase analysis provides skill in assessing future rainfall probabilities for the season ahead.
38. The wheat crop simulations for various locations in eastern Australia pointed to a consistent median yield reduction in years of negative SOI index during May. However, provided there were adequate soil moisture reserves available at the time of planting, the simulations pointed to high chances of economically viable yields even during El-Niño years. Through a detailed on-farm monitoring programme it was established that wheat grown on good soil moisture reserves in 1997 across northeastern Australia performed well although the seasonal rainfall was substantially below average. The crops were assisted by timely rain at flowering.
39. The information from rainfall analysis, crop simulation and categorization for seasonal outlooks has been used to examine tactical production decisions relating to wheat, sorghum and chickpeas, and on decisions about potential relative benefits from planting wheat or chickpeas in particular years depending on the prevailing climate outlook. Chickpeas have a shorter growing season and a later planting date so that they are perceived as a potentially less risky option that wheat when rainfall is scarce.
252 2.4.2 System for Analysis, Research & Training (START) in Global Change Climate Prediction for Agriculture Programme
40. In September 1997, START established a task group to develop a draft strategic plan for the development and implementation of the programme on Climate Prediction and Agriculture (CLIMAG). The CLIMAG strategic plan provides a conceptual framework for the utilisation of climate prediction in agriculture. The broad strategy for conducting the project in a specific region would be
1. To determine the baseline relationship between climate variability and crop production in the region; 2. To establish awareness in the region of the potential for climate predictions to be used to increase crop yield; 3. To mobilise a multi-disciplinary team to design and execute the project in the region; 4. To identify agriculture practices in the region that may be modified through knowledge of future climate variations; 5. To design a project in which the impact of changes in agriculture practice can be quantified; 6. To conduct a trial with farmers over a number of years where climate information is used to modify agriculture practice as required; and 7. To analyse and disseminate the results of the trial.
41. The preliminary results of the CLIMAG obtained from two sites in India are given below:
42. CLIMAG, Tamil Nadu, India: Agricultural production in the Indian state of Tamil Nadu experiences problems due to erratic monsoon seasons, crop failures and improper resource management. Average annual rainfall is 640 mm with most rainfall received during two monsoon seasons, namely the southwest monsoon (172 mm; June to September) and northeast monsoon (321 mm; October to December) in the western part of Tamil Nadu State. For this part of India, the use of SOI phases has shown considerable skill. There is a significant relationship between seasonal rainfall and negative phases of SOI, with a stronger signal during the northeast monsoon. In both seasons variability is less in negative SOI phases with chances of getting at least median rainfall considerably higher than in other years. The average dry land crop production in this region is about 0.6 t/ha. The key management decisions are selection of crop, dates of sowing, land management, fertiliser rates, intercultural operations and harvesting. Seasonal climate forecast could help to increase production by making better-informed management decisions. For instance, preliminary simulation results indicated that if the median August-November rainfall probability is above 400 mm and the soil profile contains at least 50 per cent of stored soil moisture on August 15th, it is advisable to plant cotton. If the condition is not satisfied it would be better to consider planting sorghum between September 15th and October 15th, provided the median
253 September-December rainfall probability exceeds 300 mm and stored soil moisture is above 30 per cent. Otherwise millets, sunflower and chickpea could be considered.
43. CLIMAG, Andhra Pradesh, India: Groundnut is the most important oilseed crop in India with a total production of about 8.2 million hectares of which over 80 per cent is rained. Anantapur is at the heart of the groundnut region over the Indian peninsula, in the state of Andhra Pradesh, which accounts for about one third of the groundnut production of the country. The district-average yield (the district is about 10,000 sq kms and the area under groundnut covers about 8,000 sq kms) varies considerably from year to year. The yield varies from less than 500 kg/ha to 1.5 tonnes (which is considered as a failure of the crop). It has been observed that the variation in yield arises to a large extent from the variation in the total rainfall during the growing season (Gadgil S., 2000).
44. The seasonal rainfall up to 50 cm is required to sustain a successful groundnut crop. When the seasonal rainfall is below this value, there are several years with yield below 700 kg ha-1 i.e. very low yields on the farmers’ field. On the other hand when seasonal rainfall is above 50 cm, the probability of yield above 1-5 t ha-1 is over 50 per cent whereas that below 700 kg ha-1 is zero. This suggests that a prediction of whether seasonal rainfall will be below 50 cm will be useful.
45. It has been observed that the seasonal rainfall is less than 50 cm in 21 El Niño years out of 24. It is rather high only with the exceptional El Niño of 1953 during which the all India monsoon rainfall was also in excess. Thus in 87 per cent of the El Niño years, the seasonal rainfall is below the threshold of 50 cm, which implies a high probability of low levels of yield. Hence if an El Niño is predicted, it would be worthwhile to minimize on investment such as chemical fertilizers, etc. or cultivate some other crop such as horse gram. Thus a prediction for El Niño has potential for application for farm-level decisions.
46. However, it should be noted that of 58 years that are characterized by seasonal rainfall less than 50 cm only 21 coincide with El Niño. Hence while prediction of an El Niño will be of considerable use, other predictors for prediction of such years have to be explored.
47. These climate crop models are being tested in a homogeneous environment. These models provide information about the potential value of utilising climate forecast information for managing agriculture systems.
SECTION Ð 3 THE EXPERIENCES OF APPLICATION OF ENSO INDEX BASED LONG RANGE FORECAST
48. In the previous section the potential value of climate forecast information has been highlighted. The study of the actual experiences of application of forecast
254 information during 1997-98 (El Niño) in Australia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam are discussed in the succeeding paragraphs.
3.1 Australia
49. The bureau of meteorology has been preparing season climate outlooks each month for the past decade. The outlook consists of a comprehensive booklet (including tabulations of probabilistic prediction of rainfall in terciles: dry, near normal, wet). It is prepared at the start of the three month period, after a meeting involving meteorologists, oceanographers and some representatives of the agriculture sector (the main user sector for this forecast). From May 1997 the Bureau had been including indication of a likely El Niño event and hence an increase probability of low rainfall over eastern Australia. The outlook issued in early August indicates “El Niño persists: Dry weather likely to continue over south-eastern Australia. The summary went on to say that “there is a strong likelihood of significantly drier than normal conditions persisting and expanding across much of eastern and southern Australia. The tables included in the August Outlook indicated that rainfall in the dry tercile was, typically, two to three times more likely than the wet tercile. In the event, although there were areas where the August-October period was dry, there were also considerable areas with rainfall much above the average (and well into the “wet” tercile). Moreover, rainfall was good through much of the region in September, a critical time for crops.
50. A huge communication gap was noted. Part of the problem is attributable to different emphases placed by forecasters and users on certain critical words. It appears that users and forecasters interpret “likely” in different ways. Those involved in preparing the forecasts and media releases intended this to indicate that dry conditions were more probable than wet conditions, but that there was still some chance that wet conditions would occur. Many users, it appears, interpreted “likely” as “almost certainly dry, and even if it wasn’t dry then it would certainly not be wet”.
51. Lack of knowledge about interpreting and using ENSO forecasts caused many farmers to have inappropriate expectations of El Niño and took inappropriate actions to cope with it. As a result, the forecasts in some cases probably did more harm than good. It was reported that some farmers over reacted and sold large portion of their herds and not planting a crop etc. (Nichols N., 1998).
3.2 Indonesia
52. Prior to 1997, the Bureau of Meteorology and Geophysics (BMG) generally used to issue weather forecasts keeping in view meteorological parameters. From 1997 onwards, the BMG has taken the initiative to establish a broad based National Seasonal Forecasting Working Group drawing upon expertise from various sectors. This Working Group comprises BMG, Bureau of Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT), the National Space Center (LAPAN), Agriculture Research Institute and Water Resources Management Research Institute.
255 53. The Working Group draws upon forecast information from ASEAN Specialized Meteorological Centre (ASMC), IRI, BOM Australia and UK Metro Office to prepare seasonal forecast guidance that includes the following:
1. Seasonal monsoon onset forecast indicating the dates of onset of monsoon with ten days intervals for 102 meteorological regions across the entire country. 2. Monthly forecast of rainfall for 102 meteorological regions for the country. 3. Seasonal cumulative rainfall status for the entire season for 102 meteorological regions.
54. Respective climate sensitive organizations at the national level, on receipt of climate forecast information from BMG, process the outlook with reference to past impacts and disseminate processed information to provincial sectoral organizations. At present, these forecasts are used as general alert. The information is received from the field agencies to the national level user agencies only when disaster events occur. The processed forecast information received at the national level is useful for taking general precautionary measures but cannot be used for comprehensive development planning.
55. During 1997-98, the Department of Agriculture, on receipt of the information from BMG, on the likely impact of El Niño, processed the information and disseminated to provincial agencies in a routine way. The details are given below:
Day 0 : Press release of the seasonal forecast by BMG. Day 7-10 : Official receipt of BMG forecast by Ministry of Agriculture. Day 10-15 : Ministry of Agriculture forwards to provincial agriculture extension services, indicating the potential impacts and the broad brush of contingency measures to be taken. Day 23-30 : Receipt of communication by provincial agriculture services. Meeting of climate working team for deliberations about the impending drought at the provincial level. Day 30-40 : Dissemination of information by provincial Government to districts and subdistricts with general recommendations about the need for taking possible actions.
56. It may be seen that it took about 6 weeks for the forecast information to reach the farmers with some general recommendations. The farmers did not benefit from the forecast information as they planted on schedule on receipt of the first rains in September/October. The rains ceased thereafter. The farmers had to replant again and again. As a result around 900,000 hectare of crop area was reported affected by drought in varying degrees.
256 57. As no concerted efforts were taken to take lead-time provided ENSO forecast, a loss of around 3 million tonnes of rice was reported. The Government had to import 5 million tonnes of food grains to ensure food security in the country.
3.3 Philippines
58. PAGASA, the Philippine meteorological agency incorporates ENSO indices as one of the major parameters in its long range forecast scheme. The PAGASA provided early warning about 1997-98 El Niño in 1996 itself and the first drought advisory was issued in May 1997. The advisories indicate the broad weather outlook. The following are the extract of the seasonal climate forecast issued by the PAGASA in May 1997.
59. “Based on these recent evolution and forecast of the atmospheric and oceanic conditions, it can be expected that warm episode will intensify during the next several months. This climate forecast on an impending warm episode will have global scala implications and for Philippines some climate tendencies during the seasons are indicated below.
60. Southwest Monsoon Season (May 1997 to September 1997): In view of this new development, the onset of the rainy season (which normally occurs during the second half of May) is expected to be delayed by about two weeks. With this, the duration of rainy season, which normally ends during the early half of October may be short, ended, although some bursts of heavy rainfall during the rainy season could also be expected mostly in the western section of Luzon and some parts of western Visayas.
61. Northeast Monsoon Season (October 1997 to March 1998): The impending warm episode in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific will have influence on the activity of tropical cyclones in the PAR. Below normal tropical cyclone activity will most likely occur during the coming northeast monsoon months. This will cause below normal rainfall condition in a bigger portion of the country”.
62. The relevant extract of drought advisory issued by PAGASA before the commencement of the Northeast monsoon 1997-98 is given below:
63. “Based on trends, climatological studies and the present atmospheric and oceanographic situation in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, manifestations of the effects of the existing El Niño phenomenon on the Philippines climate will have its peak during the northeast monsoon season (October to March). Atmospheric sea level pressure in the eastern equatorial Pacific including the Philippines will be above the normal while sea surface temperature will be below the normal. Consequently, below normal tropical cyclone activity is expected in the PAR. With these factors, drier than normal weather conditions can be experienced in the Philippines starting October 1997 and continuing through March 1998”.
64. The expressions such as “drier than normal weather conditions” and “bigger portion” of the Philippines would experience moderate to severe drought has been
257 interpreted as that the whole of Philippines would be affected by devastating drought by the user departments. An El Niño task force was constituted at the national/ provincial and other lower levels through out the Philippines. Resources were distributed to all the regions of the country.
65. The drought impact was confined to certain areas only. The farmers did not get the location specific advisories to change the crops etc. As such, around 600,000 hectares of corn and rice lands were affected by drought. Around 1.2 million tonnes of food grain production was reported.
66. Although establishment of a comprehensive climate forecasting applications system is well under way in the Philippines, there is still a great need to develop capabilities to process forecast information into more actionable formats at the local level. The information provided by the national agencies falls short of meeting the specific needs of users at the local level.
3.4 Vietnam
67. The Hydro Meteorological Services (HMS) uses antecedent parameters such as Eurasian snow cover, ITCZ etc. for making seasonal forecasts. In recent months after the initiation of Extreme Climate Events Program, HMS has begun to start incorporating ENSO into long-range forecast information into seasonal forecasts.
68. The seasonal forecast information provided by HMS is used by climate sensitive sector agencies like agriculture, water resources, Disaster Management Center only as a general alert. A lot of progress needs to be made to make full use of climate forecast information for development planning.
3.5 Fiji
69. The primary agency for meteorological monitoring, forecasting, and research in Fiji is the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS). This organization has strong professional linkages with equivalent groups in New Zealand (NZ), Australia, and the Pacific ENSO Application Center in Hawaii. Forecasting is made using (1) general monthly rainfall pattern analysis, (2) analysis of past ENSO warm and cold events, (3) rain forecast models (both locally Ð and foreign developed), and (4) regional prediction models from foreign agencies (Kaloumaria A., 2000).
70. As no local specific action to minimise sugarcane losses which is the primary agriculture industry in Fiji has been undertaken during 1997-98, 50 per cent sugarcane production loss was reported affecting 200,000 farmers.
258 SECTION Ð 4 EMERGING ISSUES
71. The discussion in Section-2 indicates that skill in climate prediction offers considerable opportunities to managers to reap benefits (i.e. increased food production and profit and/or reduced risks). Our discussion in Section-3, however, reveals that realizing these opportunities are not straightforward as the forecasting skill is imperfect and approaches to applying the existing skill to management issues have not been developed and tested extensively. While much has been written about impacts of climate variability, there has been relatively little done in relation to applying knowledge of inherently imprecise climate predictions to modify actions ahead of likely impacts, i.e. applications of climate prediction. An effective application of a seasonal climate forecast is defined as use of forecast information leading to a change in a decision that generates improved outcomes in the system of interest.
72. A considerable body of effort in various parts of the world is now being focused on this issue of applying climate predictions to improve agricultural systems. This section will be devoted to discuss emerging issues for applying long range forecast information in the Asia-pacific region drawing lessons from the experiences of applying forecast information during 1997-98 El Niño and 1998-99 La Nina. These are:
1. Delimitation ENSO sensitive sectors, seasons and regions. 2. Utilisation of climate forecast with coarse resolution. 3. Articulation of users’ needs. 4. Integration of intra-seasonal oscillations. 5. A system’s approach for climate forecast and application system.
4.1 Delimitation ENSO sensitive sectors, seasons and regions
73. The climate exhibits only limited predictability and skilful forecast are available for some seasons and regions. While in some areas there are clear relationships between ENSO indices and local climate variables, other areas do not exhibit a linear relationship. It would take some time to obtain climate forecast with greater geographic resolution covering all factors governing the climate variability.
74. It is, therefore, necessary to delimit specific climate sensitive zones, which are relatively highly sensitive to ENSO indices, and specific relationship exists between ENSO indices and local climate variability when compared to other areas. After spatial delimitation of the geographic zones, a temporal delimitation of comparatively more ENSO sensitive season than other time periods need to be undertaken. For instance, summer season is more sensitive to ENSO than the dry season, which is by and large protected by assured irrigation systems. De-limitation of climate sensitive zones, sectors and seasons would facilitate application of forecast information at the local level.
259 75. The documentation of the past ENSO events could provide insight for mapping the specific areas likely to be affected by future El Niños. The programme on extreme climate events implemented by the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) implemented in Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam, is primarily to document the impacts of past extreme climate events and map out ENSO sensitive regions in these countries. This approach assisted the countries to prepare general vulnerability maps to manage future ENSO events.
4.2 Utilisation of climate forecast with coarse resolution
76. A commonly recognized problem in the application of climate forecasts in the agricultural community is that currently available seasonal forecasts are at too large a scale to be useful for site level planning. Both spatial and temporal scales need to be refined for agricultural management applications. There is a need to downscale the global ENSO index based forecast into local level climate outlook products. These climate outlook products need to be further downscaled, keeping in view the specific vulnerabilities at the local level with reference to different seasons and different cropping systems. The intermediary research organizations in the countries could be assisted to translate the very coarse ENSO forecast information into actionable format for specific uses at the end user level.
4.3 Articulation of users’ needs
77. Most research has been driven from the climate and agro-ecological communities, and has tended to involve a top-down approach, where uses are sought for existing forecast information, and less commonly by a bottom-up approach, where a decision situation is examined to identify niches and needs for climate forecasts. Also, most current forecast products lack the spatial, temporal and element specificity that users seek for their specific decision-making needs.
78. Users are diverse and cannot be lumped into a homogeneous set. Even within the agricultural sector, the needs of agribusinesses such as seed suppliers and grain traders vary distinctly from primary producers. Among producers, limitations in access to resources or risk exposure condition responses to new information. One characteristic of users is self-sufficiency or survival (subsistence producers) or profit maximization (commercial). This plays a critical role in what information they would be willing to use.
79. Even if locally actionable climate forecast is available, the communication of probabilistic forecast information could be problematic to the end users. There is a need to undertake a communication package keeping in view socio-cultural peculiarities of communities for whom the forecast are intended to benefit.
80. Even if locally actionable climate forecast is available and communication is also perfect, there could be following constraints for the farmers to respond to the forecast:
260 ● Lack of credit access or previous debt burden; ● Competing demands for labour; ● Limited access to ploughs, seed of suitable varieties, and other inputs; ● Limited land access; ● Untimely dissemination of forecasts: farmers need forecasts by the end of April at the latest; ● Priorities and strategies for risk aversion and risk management; ● Market access or stability of prices and demand for cash crops; ● Decision irreversibility; ● Inappropriate forecast information; ● Lack of confidence in forecast or in the source/provider of the information; ● Diversity and level of income, both on-and off-farm; and ● Local consumption preferences for crop varieties.
81. There is a need to evolve policies and programmes at the National level to address these constraints to enable the farmers to use climate forecast information.
4.4 Integration of intra-seasonal oscillations
82. The long range forecast would provide an indication of the behaviour of rainfall during the course of the season. However, there could be a meso-scale intra-seasonal oscillations which may result in long dry spells/wet spells/cyclones and storms. The farmers will encounter these disturbances in the course of the cropping season. During the course of crop growing season, certain midterm corrections will be required to minimise crop yield losses. Hence, short term forecast between 5 to 10 days will provide critical information for undertaking corrective measures.
83. A long range forecast system coupled with monitoring of seasons, weather behaviour would be necessary to taking into account intra-seasonal variabilities.
4.5 A system’s approach for climate forecast and application system
84. The application of climate prediction information requires a close consideration of the roles of and interactions among the full span of climatic, ecological and social factors involved. This includes climate observation systems, the choice of climate prediction tools, the design of climate forecast products to suit users need, communication of the forecast products, sector system models (crop climate models) the decision behaviour, institutional constraints and social settings in which the decisions are made. A continuous dialogue mechanism between climate information producers, intermediary research organizations, and policy makers and end users need to be institutionalised.
261 85. The ADPC promoted establishment of climate information and user networks in Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam. These institutional arrangements would view climate variability as a continuous phenomenon and meet before the onset of wet and dry seasons to utilise the forecast for mapping out potential impacts and undertake measures to manage the likely impacts. This co-learning process would facilitate better appreciation of climate variability, limitations of forecast skills and constraints and opportunities for utilisation of climate forecasts.
262 REFERENCES
ADPC, 1997, “El-Nino 1997-98: Strategies for Risk Reduction in Water Resources and Agricultural Sectors in the Philippines”, http://www.adpc.ait.ac.th ADPC, 1998, “La Nina 1998-99: Challenges and Opportunities for Indonesia”, http://www.adpc.ait.ac.th Basher R., 2000, “Seaonal Climate Prediction and Managing for variability”, IHDP Update, Newsletter of the IHDP, No. 2, 2000 pp. 8-9. Banerjee, A.K., Sen, P.N. and Raman, C.R.V. (1978) On foreshadowing southwest monsoon rainfall over India with midtropospheric circulation anomaly of April. Indian F. Meterol. Hydrol, Geo-phys., 29, pp. 425-431. Blanford, H.H. (1884) On the connection of Himalayan snowfall and seasons of drought in India. Proc. R. Soc. London, 37, pp. 3-22. Braak, C. 1919, ‘Atmospheric variations of short and long duration in the Malaly Archipelago and neighboring regions, and the possibility to forecast them’, Verhandelingen No. 5, Koninklijk Magnetisch en Meteorologisch Observatorium te Batavia. CLIMAG, 1999 (December), Climate Prediction and Agriculture, START Network News, Issue No. 5, pp. 4-8. Climate Prediction and Agriculture, http://www.start.org/Climag/ImplemDem.html Cane, M.A. Zebiak, S.E., Dolan, S.C., 1986, Experimental forecasts of El-Nino, Nature 321, 827-832. Carson, D.J., 1998 seasonal Forecasting. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc. 124, 1-26. Conard, V. 1941. “The variability of precipitation’. Mon. Weath. Rev., 69:5-11. Eakin H., 2000., “Seasonal Climate Forecasting and the Relevance of local Knowledge. Physical Geography forthcoming. FAO, 1998, “Special Report FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to Bangladesh, Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture, World Food Programme. Fox James J., 2000 “The impact of the 1997-98 El-Nino on Indonesia, in El-Nino – History and Crisis, edited by Richard H. Grove and Hohn Chappell, pp. 171-190. Gadgil S., “Farming Strategies for a Variable Climate Ð An Indian Case Study” in Proceedings of the Interntional Forum on Climate Prediction, Agriculture and Development, April 26-28, 2000, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Palisades New York, USA pp. 27-37. Govt. of the Philippines, 1998 “A united initiative: Task Force El-Nino”, The 1997-98 Annual Report on Task Force El-Nino Phenomenon.
263 Govt. of Indonesia, 2000, “Impact of Extreme Climate Events and Food Crop Management in Indonesia”. Hammer, G.L., 2000, A gernal approach to applying seasonal climate forecasts, in G.L. Hammer, N. Nicholls, and C. Mitchell (eds.) Application of seasonal climate forecasting in Agriculture and natural systems Ð The Australian experience Kluer Academic, The Netherlands. Hastenrath, S. (1987) Predictability of Java monsoon rainfall anomalies: a case study. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology, 26, 133-141. Hastenrath S. 1987, ‘Predictability of Java monsoon anomalies: a case study’, J. Clim. Appl. Meteor., 26, 133-141. Jose A.M., 1989 “Prediction of seasonal rainfall in the Philippines”, Ph.D. thesis, College of Science, University of the Philippine, Diliman, Quezon City. Kaloumaira A., 2001 “Fiji Country Case Study Impacts and Responses to the 1997-98 El-Nino Event” in Reducting the Impact of Environmental Emergencies through Early Warning and Preparedness: The case of the 1997-98 El-Nino, A UNEP/ NCAR/UNU/WMO/ISDR Assessment, January, 2001, pp. 91-102. Kirono, D., Tapper, N. and McBride, J. 1998, ‘Documenting Indonesian rainfall in the 1997-98 El-Nino Event’, in preparation for submission to The International Journal of Climatology. Krishna Kumar, K. (1994) Forecasting of Indian summer monsoon rainfall on smaller regional scales using canonical correlation analysis technique. Project Report, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction Pilot Project, Lamont- Doherty Earth Observatory, New York, 28 pp. Kirono, D. 1998 (personal communication) Ph.D. student at Monash University, Australia, working on Indonesian rainfall variability. McBride, J.L. and Nicholls, N. (1983) seasonal relationships between Australian rainfall and the Southern oscillation. Monthly Weather Review, 111, 1998-2004. Nicholls, N. 1981, ‘Air-sea interaction and the possibility of long-range weather prediction in the Indonesian Arcipelago’, Mon. Wea. Rev., 109, 2435-2443. Nicholls, N., 1983 ‘The Southern Oscillation and Indonesian Sea surface temperatures’, Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 424-432. Nicholls, N. and Woodcock, F. 1981. ‘Verification of an empirical long-range weather forecasting techique’. Quart. J. Roy. Met. soc. 107:973-976. Nicholls, N. 1981. ‘Air-sea interaction and the possibility of long-range weather prediction in the Indonesian Archipelago’ Mon. Weath. Rev. 109:2435-2443. Nicholls, N. 1984. ‘The Southern Oscillation and Indonesian sea-surface-temperature’. Mon. weath. Rev., 112:424-432. Nicholls, N. 1988a. ‘El-Nino – Southern Oscillation and rainfall variability’. J. Climate, 1:418-421.
264 Nicholls, N., 1985, Impact of the Southern Oscillation Australian Crops., J. Climatol. 5, 553-560. Nicholls, N. and Wong, K., 1990. ‘Dependence of rainfall variability on mean rainfall, latitude, and the Southern Oscillation’. J. Climate, 3:163-170. Nicholls, N., and Kestin T., 1999, http://www.esig.ucar.edu/lanina/report/kestin.html Nicholls, N., 2000(a) “What the instrumental and recent historical record tells us about the El-Nino Ð Southern Oscillation” in El-Nino – History and Crisis , edited by Richard H. Grove and Hohn Chappell, pp. 79-88. NRC, 1996. Learning to predict with El-Nino and Southern Oscillation. National Research Council (NRC), National Academy Press, Washington DC. Ogallo, L.A., 1988. Relationship between seasonal rainfall over East Africa and the Southern Oscillation. J. Climatol. 8, 31-43. PAGASA, 1997, “Update on seasonal climate forecast in the Philippines for 1997”, dt. 15 May, 1997. PAGASA, 1997, “Drought Advisory No. 9805-A” dt. September 1997. Palmer, T.N., Anderson, D.L.T., 1993. Scientific assessment of the prospects for seasonal forecasting a European perspective PRESAO-1, 1998. First Forum on seasonal forecasting and its applications to early warning systems for food security in West Africa, Abidjan, Cote d’Ivoire, 4-8 May 1998, ACMAD. Ramusson, E.M. Wallace. J.M., 1983, Meteorological asects of the El-Nino/southern oscillation. Science 222, 1195-1202. Ropelewski, C.F., Halpert, M.S, 1989. Precipitation patterns associated with high index of the Southern Oscillation, J. Clim. 2, 268-284. Stone R.C., and de Hoedt., G. 2000 “The development and delivery of current seasonalclimate forecasting capabilities in Australia”, in G.L. Hammer, N. Nicholls, and C. Mitchell (eds.) Application of seasonal climate forecasting in Agriculture and natural systems Ð The Australian experience Kluer Academic, The Netherlands. Sukardi W., 1998, “The meterological Meaning of Traditional Time Reckoning “Wariga” and its applications”, Jurnal Agromet, Vol. XIII No.1, Indonesian Association of Agricultural Meteorology pp. 15 to 24. Thapliyal, V (1987) Prediction of Indian monsoon variability evaluation and prospects including development of a new model. In: Ye, D., Fu, C., Chano, J. and Yoshino, M. (Eds.) Climate of China and global Climate, China Ocean Press, pp. 397-416. Walker, G.T. (1908) Correlation in seasonal variation of climate (Introduction). Mem. India Meterol, Dept. (IMD Mem.), 20 pp.117-124.
265 (266 blank) Annex XIII APDC/01/9
ASIA FIVIMS FOR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS*
ABSTRACT
The assessment of food insecurity at subnational, national, regional and global levels is of paramount importance for development planning and for directing efforts and resources to combat malnutrition and hunger. The World Food Summit (WFS), held in 1996, recognizing the need for an assessment of the extent of hunger and malnutrition, called for the development of food insecurity and vulnerability information and mapping systems (FIVIMS), indicating areas and populations affected by or at-risk of hunger and malnutrition, and elements contributing to food insecurity. To support the overall FIVIMS effort, the FAO Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) is implementing a Trust Fund Project entitled Asia FIVIMS with financial support from the Government of Japan. With the collaboration of the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), the project has so far geo-referenced a total of 992 disaster events, or 2422 cumulative number of provincial level units covering the period of 1990-1999. These geo-reference data can be used to produce disaster frequency or occurrence maps for various disaster types for Asia. The mapped data and information on disaster-prone and vulnerable areas will be disseminated to FIVIMS data users and policy makers through an Internet-based data management, sharing and analysis tool known as the Asia Key Indicator Data System (Asia KIDS) for further analysis and decision making.
* Prepared by Naoki Minamiguchi, Vulnerability Analysis Coordinator, Global Information and Early Warning Service, ESCG.
267 CONTENTS
Page 1. INTRODUCTION ...... 269 1.1 The Need for Food Insecurity and Vulnerability Assessments .. 269 1.2 The Asia FIVIMS Project and Natural Disasters Assessments .. 269
2. CRED NATURAL DISASTER DATABASE ...... 270 2.1 The Asia FIVIMS Project Ð CRED Collaboration ...... 270 2.2 The Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT)...... 271 2.3 Disaster Profile for Asia ...... 271
3. GEO-REFERENCING THE CRED EM-DAT NATURAL DISASTER DATA ...... 273 3.1 Geo-referencing Methodologies and Remodelling of the EM-DAT Database Structure ...... 274 3.2 Known Limitations ...... 274
4. IDENTIFICATION OF DISASTER-PRONE FOOD INSECURE REGIONS ...... 276 4.1 Development of Disaster Occurrence Maps ...... 276 4.2 Data Validity ...... 278 4.3 Types of Natural Disasters ...... 279 4.4 Impacts of Natural Disasters on Food Supply and Acute Food Insecurity ...... 280 4.5 Impacts on Poor and Undernourished ...... 281
5. DATA SHARING AND DISSEMINATION THROUGH THE ASIA KEY INDICATORS DATA SYSTEM (ASIA KIDS)...... 284 5.1 Development of the Asia KIDS Ð an Internet-based, data sharing, analysis and dissemination system...... 284 5.2 Data Profile Analysis Modules ...... 284
6. CONCLUSIONS AND PERSPECTIVES ...... 286
REFERENCES ...... 288
268 1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 The Need for Food Insecurity and Vulnerability Assessments
1. The assessment of food insecurity at subnational, national, regional and global levels is of paramount importance for development planning and for directing efforts and resources to combat malnutrition and hunger. Similarly, a knowledge of the number, nature and exact location of vulnerable populations is required by contingency planners, relief operations, and international aid organizations, in times of food emergency and/or civil strife, for accurately targeting the beneficiaries of food aid programmes. Food importing developed and developing countries also require vulnerability information since external shocks, including natural and man-made disasters, may disturb the availability of food in the international markets.
2. The World Food Summit (WFS), hosted by FAO in Rome in November 1996 with representatives from 185 countries in attendance, also recognised the need for an assessment of the extent of hunger and malnutrition, including at local level, and pledged to reduce by half the number of undernourished people not later than 2015. Specifically, Commitments II, V and VII of the World Food Summit Plan of Action request governments to “develop and periodically update, where necessary, a national Food Insecurity and Vulnerability Information and Mapping System (FIVIMS), indicating areas and populations, including at local level, affected by or at-risk of hunger and malnutrition, and elements contributing to food insecurity, making maximum use of existing data and other information systems in order to avoid duplication of efforts” (FAO 1996 and 1998). FIVIMS was considered as a required tool for member states and international organisations to adequately plan and direct their efforts and resources to meet the WFS target.
3. In this regard, the WFS also called upon FAO to play a catalytic role, within the UN family, for the further elaboration and definition of the System and for its development in a co-ordinated manner, starting with the development of guidelines for the establishment of national FIVIMS, and for the determination of suitable indicators for the assessment of food insecurity and vulnerability at national and subnational levels. FIVIMS, when fully established, will assist policy makers from both industrialised and developing nations to identify vulnerable groups and areas within the countries for adequately directing their resources and efforts for reducing the poor and undernourished, as well as for establishing policies and strategies which will ensure stable food production and supply, and improve access to safe and nutritious food by all.
1.2 The Asia FIVIMS Project and Natural Disasters Assessments
4. In order to support the overall FIVIMS effort, the FAO Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) is implementing a Trust Fund Project entitled
269 “Development of a Vulnerability Information Base, Mapping and Dissemination System for Asia, often referred to as Asia FIVIMS, with financial support from the Government of Japan. Asia FIVIMS seeks to assemble, analyse and disseminate information about food insecure and vulnerable populations in Asia, providing information on their geographic locations and the causes behind their food insecurity and vulnerability.
5. To date, various elements and shocks contributing to food insecurity and vulnerability in Asia have been considered by Asia FIVIMS. These range from food self-sufficiency to agricultural and crop production to food emergencies and disaster risks. Disaster risks are included in Asia FIVIMS analyses since they are a major cause of acute food shortages and supply in Asia as well as increasingly leading to food emergencies in the region. In Cambodia, for instance, the worst flooding in 70 years that started in early July 2000 was responsible for the estimated 374,000 hectares of rice damaged or destroyed, around 5,000 livestock killed, and US$ 10 million of estimated economic damage to crops alone (FAO/GIEWS 2000).
6. Disasters are often associated with a precipitous decline in well-being and food security status, and therefore information on disasters are required in addition to other food insecurity and vulnerability indicators being developed and applied by Asia FIVIMS, such as dietary adequacy and anthropometric indicators which capture a dimension of long-term, or chronic, food insecurity.1
7. The disaster data included in Asia FIVIMS analyses will provide an indication of the disaster risk (relative frequency), and provide information on the magnitude and types of disasters and emergencies in a country. The disaster data also provide information on causes of disaster-induced food emergencies at national and subnational levels. These are useful indicators for assessing a country’s vulnerability to major shocks and disasters that may lead to very acute food insecurity and to food emergency situations.
2. CRED NATURAL DISASTER DATABASE
2.1 The Asia FIVIMS Project Ð CRED Collaboration
8. Asia FIVIMS coordinates with other international organizations and national agencies involved in vulnerability and risk assessments in order to collect data required for determining vulnerability factors, and to include them as part of the Asia FIVIMS database for further analysis. In relation to disaster data, a major project partner is the WHO Collaborating Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) at the Université Catholique de Louvain in Brussels, Belgium. CRED maintains a database on the occurrence and effects of over 12,000 mass natural and technological
1 In addition to the disaster variables, Asia FIVIMS is testing other risk factors, which are out of the scope of this paper. They include environmental (climate and biophysical) and socio-political (e.g., wars and conflicts) risks and demographic facators that are increasingly causing, and often, worsening food insecurity in Asia.
270 disasters in the world from 1900 to the present known as the Emergency Events Database, or EM-DAT. Since mid 1999 the Asia FIVIMS project has collaborated with CRED in geo-referencing EM-DAT data to produce a time-series, digital geo-referenced data set of natural disasters at subnational level for Asia. These data will be used to investigate causalities between food insecurity and natural disasters, as well as the vulnerability related to such events. They can also be used to evaluate the significance of events and their frequency, and to allow the development of appropriate strategies to be taken by the countries.
2.2 The Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT)
9. Since 1988 CRED has been maintaining EM-DAT with support from WHO and the Government of Belgium. It provides policy makers and programme managers with historical and consistent data on disasters and their effects, according to country and disaster type, in order to serve the purposes of humanitarian action at national and international levels. It is also aimed at informing rationalised decision making as well as to provide an objective basis for vulnerability assessment and priority setting. For example, it helps policy makers to decide whether floods in a given country are more significant in terms of their human impact than earthquakes.
10. The database is continuously updated from various sources including UN agencies, non-governmental organisations, insurance companies, research institutes and press agencies.2 Specialised CRED’ staff validate the data contained in EM-DAT by researching different information sources and materials. For a disaster to be entered in EM-DAT, at least one of the following criteria must be fulfilled: (1) 10 or more people reported killed; (2) 100 people reported affected; (3) a call for internal assistance; and/ or (4) a declaration of a state of emergency. The core data contained in EM-DAT include: date, type of disaster,3 continent,4 country, region, deaths, affected population, injured, homeless, an estimate of damage and additional information. Until 1995, the USAID-OFDA (Office of US Foreign Disaster Assistance) is the main source of the data. A collaboration between CRED and OFDA started in 1999 assisted in completing the EM-DAT database and validate its contents, while making the EM-DAT data widely available via the Internet (www.cred.be/emdat).
2.3 Disaster Profile for Asia
11. Asia was most affected by natural calamities and suffered disaster-induced damages and losses during the final quarter of the 21st century. This is evidenced by
2 As of the end of March 2001, there are 12456 records in the database, with 8512 recorded as natural disasters and 3944 as technological (or man-made) disasters. 3 Natural disasters include avalanches, cyclones, epidemics, volcanic eruptions, famine, landslides, floods, insect infestations, hurricanes, droughts, storms, earthquakes, tsunami, typhoons and cold waves. 4 Africa, America, Asia, Europe and Oceania are the five continents included. Asia includes East, South, Southeast and West Asian countries.
271 looking into the global statistics of natural disasters during 1975-2000 produced from EM-DAT.
12. Chat 1 shows that both disaster occurrence and people affected for Asia outnumber those for other regions in the world. The cumulative number of disaster events for Asia between 1975 and 2000 is 2,171, which accounts for 38.2 per cent of the total disasters for the world.5 The total number of people affected during the same period accumulated to 3,548,204,253 persons, exceeding 87 per cent of that for the world reported in EM-DAT. The figures appear to be remarkably high when taking into consideration that about 20 per cent of the global land belongs to Asia, which accommodates 56.9 per cent of the total world population.6
Natural Disasters Reported (1975-2000) Number of People Affected (1975-2000)
2171 (38.2%) 3,548,204,253 (87.7%)
1435
785 821
465
323,401,538 127,491,946 27,867,558 19,637,705
Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania
Chart 1. (Left) Cumulative number of natural disaster events reported in 1975-2000; (Right) Total number of affected people for the same period
13. The number of disaster events for Asia recorded in EM-DAT increased gradually from 1975 to 1997, and rose sharply from 1998 (Chart 2). Throughout the period, floods, storms and earthquakes together account for two-thirds of the total disasters for Asia (Chart 3), and are responsible for more than 70 per cent of the total people killed,7 and more than 99 per cent injured.8 It is also noteworthy that more than 25 per cent of the people killed during the same period are attributable to famines
5 Records for epidemics and insect infestation are not included in the statistics. 6 (Data Source) FAOSTAT (http://apps.fao.org). Land: Asia = 2,678,388; World = 13,387,019 (1,000 ha). Population: Asia = 71,326,781; World = 125,382,963 (1,000). The population ratio was derived from the cumulative population figures from 1975 to 1999 for Asia and World, respectively. 1999 is the newest year for population data available from FAOSTAT as of the end of March 2001. 7 Floods, storms and earthquakes account for 11.0 per cent, 23.2 per cent and 36.6 per cent, respectively. 8 Floods (47.8 per cent), storms (23.0 per cent) and earthquakes (29.6 per cent).
272 Disasters Reported for Asia (1975-2000)
200 189
150
110 118 107 113 120 100 125 80 86 103 77 85 Number of Disasters 50 64 77 90 69 33 0 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 Year 1999 Chart 2. Number of disasters reported in EM-DAT during 1975-2000
100%
50%
0% 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 Year
Extreme Temperature Famine Slide Volcano Drought Wave/surge Wild fire Earthquake Wind storm Flood
Chart 3. Composition of natural disasters occurred in Asia during 1975-2000 (per cent) bringing 270,760 people to death. The total number of people killed during 1975-2000 is 1,056,528.
3. GEO-REFERENCING THE CRED EM-DAT NATURAL DISASTER DATA
14. The CRED maintains disaster information by country in the EM-DAT database. In order to adequately gauge food security situations and allow comparisons at
273 subnational levels, Asia FIVIMS required that EM-DAT be geo-referenced at least by 1st administrative unit, or at provincial level, for all countries in Asia.9
3.1 Geo-referencing Methodologies and Remodelling of the EM-DAT Database Structure
15. All information on natural and technological disasters compiled by CRED is stored, maintained and continuously updated in the EM-DAT database. The master database table is comprised of a number of data fields which record critical information on disasters ranging from the number of people killed to estimated economic losses to actual affected areas denoted by name. The area names that are recorded in the table reflect various geographical features and administrative units, such as provinces, cities, villages, rivers, ports, and regions, and sometimes encompass large-scale areas such as the Mekong River Basin. Subnational locations affected by disaster are recorded by name only in EM-DAT and lack geographical reference co-ordinates or locational codes that are required for mapping the affected areas. These data have since been geo-referenced through a procedure that links administrative regions, other boundaries, and physical features to the descriptive location names found in EM-DAT.
16. In addition to lack of geo-location codes, the original database structure and relational model did not allow effective geo-referencing and mapping. Spatial databases usually maintain attribute information by geographical features such as administrative units, ecological zones, towns and streets. On the other hand, when a disaster affected more than one subnational or 1st administrative areas, EM-DAT stored all of the affected places’ names in one data field, which are attribute information on spatial features. In other words, the disaster information is stored by disaster event rather than spatial feature. In order to geo-code the disaster information and to make it mapable, it was required to modify the original database structure and relational data model by adding a spatial data component to the database (Verelst 1999). The following new data tables were added to the database for this purpose, and a relational database model developed (Figure 1).
a. “Code_ADM1” Table: Unique codes for all 1st administrative areas for Asia were developed based on the digital administrative boundary maps available at FAO. The code list was then imported into the EM-DAT database. It was used for assigning a unique subnational unit code to each descriptive area name. The table contains information on all current 1st administrative units in Asia by unit name, country name and a unique identifier for each unit. b. “Disaster_ADM1” Table: This table is added to the database for storing geo-referenced data. Each row of the table contains a 1st administrative unit code and a corresponding disaster number linking the master disaster
9 The data for the Philippines were geo-referenced to 2nd administrative units, or at district level.
274 table to the “Code_ADM1” table. The actual geo-referencing procedure populated this data table by assigning an administrative unit code from the “Code_ADM1 table” to each disaster event referring to affected place names found in the database. The original disaster event number was repeated if the disaster affected more than one administrative area.
Figure 1. Modified relational data model and tables of EM-DAT
17. In addition to the above modifications, an updated data entry module was developed for EM-DAT in order to enable efficient geo-referencing. The module provides rapid access to all the information necessary for geo-referencing in one window, coupled with search facilities, and allows users to make online queries for obtaining digital map images for affected areas, location names and co-ordinate information. A series of online geographic names reference sites were added to the database as an integral part of EM-DAT.10 These are maintained separately from EM-DAT, and are dynamically linked, providing visual and textual information required to identify the accurate location of disaster affected areas.
18. The modifications allowed the creation of maps and charts to become more or less semi-automated. By taking advantage of query builders and SQL connections from within mapping software such as ArcView GIS, it is now possible to create
10 The web-based information bases include the Getty Thesaurus of Geographic Names Browser (http:// www.getty.edu/research/tools/vocabulary/tgn/index.html), the GEONet Names Serve (http://164.214.2.59/ gns/html/index.html), Principal Cities and Agglomerations of the World and of Selected Countries (http:// www.citypopulation.de/cities.html).
275 thematic maps of natural disasters by directly retrieving geo-referenced information from EM-DAT.
3.2 Known Limitations
19. There were at least three constraints identified in processing the EM-DAT data and producing the geo-referenced component:
a. The number of casualties, i.e., people killed, injured and affected, is originally stored by disaster event, regardless of whether the disaster affected more than one administrative unit, thus making it impossible to disaggregate the number by each affected subnational region. As a result, the geo-referenced component cannot represent the number of casualties according to 1st administrative unit. b. Information on affected places is also noted for 2nd and 3rd administrative levels in EM-DAT. While geo-referencing to the 2nd or 3rd administrative level could be undertaken at national level where more detailed information on the disasters is available and where additional local knowledge can be used to assist the geo-referencing, the disaster events that contain information on affected 2nd or 3rd administrative areas (in most cases, they are district or commune names) were assigned instead to the location codes of 1st administrative units to which they belong, and stored in the “Disaster_ADM1” table for the purpose of Asia FIVIMS. c. Similarly, point and line-related information were converted to area-related attribute information during the course of geo-referencing. For instance, a volcano eruption occurred at Mount Lokon in April 1991 (point-related information) was assigned to the 1st administrative code of Sulawesi Utara Province, Indonesia, in which the mountain is located.11 Line-related information (e.g., roads and mountain-ridges) were treated in the same fashion.
4. IDENTIFICATION OF DISASTER-PRONE FOOD INSECURE REGIONS
4.1 Development of Disaster Occurrence Maps
20. As of the end of March 2001, 992 disaster events for Asia recorded in EM-DAT during the period of 1990-1999 were geo-referenced to 1st administrative, or provincial, level. As a result, 2422 administrative units were geo-referenced in relation to disasters which occurred in East, Southeast and South Asia as well as part of West Asia, i.e., Iran and Afghanistan. The scope of the geo-referencing activity is to process
11 For point-related information, latitude and longitude coordinates were also recorded for future study and applications.
276 all natural disaster data for Asia from 1975 to 2000, representing a total of 2375 disaster incidents. The geo-referencing of the remaining 1383 disaster events is expected to be finalised by mid 2001. This section illustrates some example products using the geo-referenced EM-DAT natural disaster data for 1990-1999, with focus on food insecurity and vulnerability in Asia.
21. The modifications to the EM-DAT database described in the previous section, enable the creation of disaster occurrence tables by subnational unit that are compatible with most Geographic Information Systems. Disaster frequency and/or occurrence maps for various disaster types for Asia were then produced using the geo-referenced EM-DAT database for further analysis and interpretation. An example showing disaster occurrence during the period is presented in Figure 2.12 The disaster data when mapped will allow FIVIMS stakeholders, and policy and decision makers to understand the extent and magnitude of various types of natural disasters which have occurred in Asia, as well as to investigate the effects on disaster-prone food insecure populations.
Figure 2. Natural disaster occurrence by 1st administrative unit for 1990-1999 (East, Southeast and South Asia)
12 Although epidemics and insect infestation are treated as natual disasters in EM-DAT and were geo-referenced, they were excluded from the studies and map creation in this section.
277 4.2 Data Validity
22. Although it is still premature to conclude the validity of maps derived from the disaster incidents that occurred during the limited time period of 10 years from 1990 to 1999, the disaster occurrence maps could be used to portray past disaster events in combination with other variables. The map below illustrates the frequency of earthquakes in 1990-1999 for Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan (Figure 3). The earthquake occurrence map was overlaid with major tectonic contacts and faults in the region and the hypocenters of significant earthquakes recorded from 1950 to 1994.13 The map depicts that the earthquakes recorded during the 10-year period, correspond with the mapped hypocenters except for the western part of Iran.
Figure 3. Earthquake occurrence map for 1990-1999 overlaid with tectonic contacts/faults and major historical hypocenters (Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan)
23. A flood frequency map developed from the geo-referenced EM-DAT provides a similar observation on the validity of the data set. Figure 4 shows the number of flood events recorded for Bangladesh and Northeastern India during 1990-1999 compared with inundated lands (delimited in red) which were detected and mapped using satellite images form the NOAA-AVHRR, Landsat-7 and Radarsat sensors in 1985-2000.14 Most flooded regions detected by satellite imagery can be found within the subnational areas of high to middle flood frequency, despite a gap in the data collection period between the two.
13 (Data Source) USGS National Earthquake Information Center (http://wwwneic.cr.usgs.gov/neis/epic/ epic.html) 14 (Data Source) Dartmouth Flood Observatory (http://www.dartmouth.edu/artsci/geog/floods/)
278 Figure 4. Flood occurrence at 1st administrative level during 1990-1999 with inundated areas delimited by satellite images for 1985-2000 (red)
24. Important to reiterate when interpreting the disaster maps produced from the geo-referenced EM-DAT, is that not all disaster events which have occurred in the world are included in EM-DAT. Disasters are entered in the database if 10 or more people were reported killed; (2) 100 people reported affected; (3) a call for internal assistance was made; and/or (4) a state of emergency was declared. Any maps produced from the geo-referenced data set, as well as the disaster frequency depicted in the maps, reflect these criteria.
4.3 Types of Natural Disasters
25. The types and nature of natural disasters vary from country to country in Asia depending on their geographic location, topographical and geological characteristics, and climate and environmental conditions. To illustrate the difference, the cumulative number of affected subnational units were classified by disaster type and expressed in percentage for Indonesia and Viet Nam (Chart 4). The left chart represents 122
Indonesia Vietnam
Slide Famine Slide Drought Drought 5% 2% 2% 2% 7% Flood Volcano Flood 61% 9% 38% Wind Earthquake storm 21% 30%
Wild fire 23% Chart 4. Cumulative number of provinces affected by disasters during 1990-1999 expressed in percentage
279 cumulative number of provinces that were geo-referenced based on 134 natural disaster events recorded between 1990 and 1999 for Indonesia. During the period, seven different natural disasters affected the countries ranging from floods to earthquakes to droughts.15 When compared to other types of disasters, floods, wild fires and earthquakes are three major threats to Indonesia that affected the country according to the geo-referenced data.
26. On the other hand, floods and tropical storms together account for more than 90 per cent of the total cumulative number of affected provinces in Viet Nam during the same 1990-1999 period. The number was generated based on 169 cumulative number of provinces geo-referenced or 68 disaster events. On average, Viet Nam is hit by 4 to 6 typhoons each year, and over 70 per cent of the population in Viet Nam is at risk of floods and tropical storms as reported by the Disaster Management Unit in Ha Noi.16 Floods and tropical storms alone are responsible for the deaths of, and injuries to, hundreds of people and result in tens of thousands of people being rendered homeless each year according to EM-DAT.
4.4 Impacts of Natural Disasters on Food Supply and Acute Food Insecurity
27. Disasters have been increasingly a major cause of crop losses and damages and often result in food supply shortages in Asia as noted by the FAO member states at the 25th FAO Regional Conference for Asia and the Pacific and the 16th Session of the Committee on Agriculture (FAO 2000 and 2001). Two actual cases are provided below which demonstrate impacts of natural disasters on crop production in relation to disaster frequency.
a. Indonesia: Provinces in Indonesia which have experienced a higher frequency of disasters have had more crop areas destroyed and/or damaged. During 1998-1999, most provinces were hit by disasters from one to three times. In order to depict the phenomenon empirically, the ratio of disaster- destroyed crop lands to planted areas in 1998-1999 was compared to disaster occurrence for each province.17 On average, provinces with one disaster event occurred during the period, lost 3.83 per cent of the total planted areas per year. For provinces with two events, the ratio increased to 5.82 per cernt. Only one province was severely affected by three different disasters over the two years in Indonesia: Kalimantan Timur Province had 59.4 per cent of total planted lands damaged or destroyed.
15 18 cases of epidemics recorded and geo-referenced in the EM-DAT for Indonesia were excluded from this study. 16 (Source) Disaster Management Unit (DMU), the Standing Office of the Central Committee for Flood and Storm Control in Vietnam. http://www.undp.org.vn/dmu/background/en/frame.htm 17 (Data Source) Information on damaged/destroyed crop areas were obtained from the publication “Food and Nutrition Situation in Indonesia 1998-1999” by National Food and Nutrition Surveilance System Team, Jakarta 1999.
280 The disasters that paralysed the Kalimantan Timur’s agricultural lands included two forest fires in February 1998 and in June 1999, respectively, as well as a flood in August 1998 that caused 7,000 hectares of lands to be inundated and more than 100,000 people affected. b. Viet Nam: The larger the scale of the disaster, the more severe the damages it can cause. This is demonstrated by most seriously affected areas in terms of crop loss during 1997-1998 in Viet Nam (Chart 5).18 The areas which substantially lost crops and crop lands are identical to the provinces most severely inundated by floods and storms, i.e., South Central Coast and Mekong River Delta Provinces as illustrated in Figure 5. It is interesting to note, however, that the provinces in North Central Coast which did not experience crop loss as severely as the South Central Coast and Mekong River Delta regions, were among most frequently hit by natural disasters between 1990 and 1999.
80000 Province 60000
40000
20000 Total Crop Loss (ha) Total
0 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 Paddy Area Flooded (ha)
Chart 5. Paddy areas inundated by floods/storms vs. crop lands actually damaged/destroyed in 1997-1998
4.5 Impacts on Poor and Undernourished
28. The effect of natural disasters on transitory, or short-term, food insecurity is evidenced by the past experiences of many disaster-prone countries in Asia as described in the previous sections. Yet, the effects on long-term, or chronic, food insecurity, which is often manifested as undernourishment, is not so clearly understood. The seemingly complex nature of the causalities between the two, as well as a broad range
18 (Source) Disaster Management Unit (DMU).
281 Figure 5. (Left) Total paddy fields inundated by tropical storms and floods during 1997-1998; (Middle) Total actual crop areas damaged and/or destroyed during 1997-1998; (Right) Disaster frequency for 1990-1999 of factors involved in such assessments, require careful examination of a number of variables associated with natural disasters and food insecurity. In addition, a lot of efforts for detailed information collection on the variables must be made.
29. Despite the lack of enough empirical studies, in most disaster-prone food insecure countries, it is the poor and undernourished who would be affected most by natural calamities due to lack of coping capacities to protect themselves against the acute external shocks, and also because they are often residing in marginalized areas where few measures have been undertaken by the responsible authorities for disaster preparedness and mitigation and emergency response.
30. An attempt was made to identify disaster-prone food insecure areas in Indonesia by using the information on poor families and on PEM (Protein-Energy-Malnutrition) prevalence among children under five years old, which is an indication of chronic food insecurity. Both data were produced by the National Food and Nutrition Surveillance System. Figures 6 and 7 show the PEM prevalence rate and the percentage of poor families in each province, respectively, while disaster frequency is depicted in Figure 8. Based on the three factors, provinces that fulfil the following criteria were selected: (1) PEM equal to or above 25 per cent; (2) poor families rate equal to or above 25 per cent; and (3) disaster occurrence equal to or more than five. They include Irian Jaya, Kalimantan Barat, Kalimantan Selatan, Kalimantan Tengah, and
282 Figure 6. PEM (Protein-Energy-Malnutrition) under-5 children prevalence (%) for 1997-1998
Figure 7. Poor Families (%) by Province for 1997-1998
(a) Irian Jaya; (b) Kalimantan Barat; (c) Kalimantan Selatan; (d) Kalimantan Tengah; (e) Sulawesi Tengah; (f) Aceh
Figure 8. Disaster Occurrence by Province during 1990-1999
283 Sulawesi Tengah Provinces. When natural emergencies such as floods, tropical storms and earthquakes occur, people in these provinces, especially poor and food insecure, could be most severely affected by outcomes of the acute external hazards.
31. It is, however, premature to clearly define the causalities between disaster frequency and its impacts on poor and undernourished by using the geo-referenced data set that covers the limited time period of 10 years. In this relation, it can be noted that not all provinces of high PEM and/or poverty rates belong to high disaster frequent regions. One of such regions is Aceh Province where the PEM ratio was 37.60 per cent Ð second highest in the country, and where 41.8 per cent of families were suffering destitution, or below the poverty line. Yet, the province was hit by disasters only twice during 1990-1999.
5. DATA SHARING AND DISSEMINATION THROUGH THE ASIA KEY INDICATORS DATA SYSTEM (ASIA KIDS)
5.1 Development of the Asia KIDS Ð an Internet-based, data sharing, analysis and dissemination system
32. In order to allow effective data sharing and dissemination between FIVIMS data users and policy makers, the Asia FIVIMS project is developing the Asia Key Indicators Data System (Asia KIDS). The Asia KIDS is a web-based integrated information management, analysis, and dissemination system with online mapping and data analysis capabilities (Figure 9). It makes use of the database technologies used by GIEWS and the Key Indicators Mapping System, or KIMS, being developed by FAO WAICENT. The Asia KIDS will enable system users to have rapid access via the Internet to FIVIMS related information, including data on natural disasters, in map, image, tabular and text formats maintained in a single database commonly administered by Asia FIVIMS stakeholders.
33. The geo-referenced EM-DAT natural disaster data for Asia will be shared and disseminated through the Asia KIDS to help improve disaster preparedness and mitigation, elaborate strategies and programmes to deal with various problems as well as understand the causes of food insecurity and vulnerability in disaster-prone countries in Asia. A database of key indicators is a core component of the Asia KIDS. The information base and the new technologies developed by the project will contribute directly to Global FIVIMS and the Global Key Indicators Data System to be established within the framework of the Inter-agency Working Group on FIVIMS (IAWG-FIVIMS).
5.2 Data Profile Analysis Modules
34. The Asia KIDS allows users to browse selected FIVIMS indicators, which are critical for understanding food insecurity and vulnerability situations in Asia, with various types of analytical functions developed by the Asia FIVIMS project. There are currently three major analytical modules available for data analysis (Figure 10):
284 Figure 9. Asia FIVIMS homepage: gateway to National FIVIMS and dynamic systems
Figure 10. Asia KIDS Indicator Browsing and Data Profile Analysis Modules
285 (a) Indicator Browsing Module; (b) Data Profile Analysis Module; and (c) Policy and Programme Intervention.
a. Indicator Browser: comprises of “Map,” “Table,” “Chart,” “Metadata,” “Links,” and “Find” functions. Users can first select an indicator of their interest and build a map combining other geographical information such as lower-level administrative boundaries, rivers, roads, and cities. With the “Table” function the users will obtain time-series figures for the selected indicator when available or they can create a chart in various forms for a given year. Other functions include “Metadata” showing information on the indicator, and “Links” web sites related to the indicator. “Find” will assist the users to find an indicator they are looking for from the indicator list in the database. b. Data Profile Analysis for Indicators: allows more in-depth investigation of food insecurity and vulnerability situations by looking into the temporal and spatial trend of the indicator selected or a set of indicators related each other causing food insecurity and vulnerability in Asia. “Overview,” “Temporal Analysis,” “Spatial Analysis,” and “Causal Relation Analysis” functions consist this module. c. Policy and Programmes Interventions: provides information on various policies and programmes being implemented currently or undertaken in the past in the countries, as well as assists you with possible interventions and/or new policy options to alleviate food insecurity. Types of assessments include “International Interventions,” “Domestic Interventions,” and “Impact of Policy on Food Security.”
6. CONCLUSIONS AND PERSPECTIVES
35. CRED EM-DAT remains the only source in the world which provides essential information on the magnitude and effect of natural and technological disasters which have occurred world-wide since 1900 to present collated in a single database with standard criteria. The current on-going addition of a geo-referenced component to EM-DAT will allow the data to be used for assessing country and subnational level vulnerability to natural hazards which can lead to acute, transitory food insecurity, as well as for investigating the possible impact of disasters on undernourished and poor residing in disaster-prone vulnerable regions.
36. When combined with other information such as seismology data and satellite imagery, the geo-referenced EM-DAT data, though still an interim product, support the usefulness for using the data while conducting vulnerability and food insecurity assessments for Asia. Yet, there is a need to enhance data accuracy as well as develop more reliable maps of disaster-prone areas by geo-referencing the rest of the data that covers the period of 1975-1989 and 2000.
286 37. The causalities between the frequency and scale of disasters and the extent of crop damages and losses, i.e., short-term food shortages and insecurity, are well documented from the experiences of many disaster-prone Asian countries, some examples of which were described in this paper. More effort is, however, required to understand linkages between frequency of natural disasters and chronic food insecurity.
38. The methodologies used for geo-referencing and mapping EM-DAT can be applied for geo-referencing regional and national level databases. Using local knowledge and expertise available in-country, geo-referencing can be undertaken at more detailed levels, e.g., 2nd and 3rd administrative units, or district and commune levels, resulting in more accurate and reliable assessments of vulnerability to agricultural disasters and food insecurity, while helping contribute to the development of national capacity.
287 REFERENCES
FAO. 1996. WFS96/3 Rome Declaration on World Food Security and World Food Summit Plan of Action. 13-17 November 1996. FAO. Rome. FAO. 1998. CFS98/5 Guidelines for National Food Insecurity and Vulnerability Information and Mapping Systems (FIVIMS): Background and Principles. 24th Session of the Committee on World Food Security. 2-5 June 1998. FAO. Rome. FAO. 2000. APRC/00/3 Food Insecurity and Vulnerability in Asia and the Pacific: World Food Summit Follow-Up. The 25th Regional Conference for Asia and the Pacific. 28 August - 1 September 2000, Yokohama, Japan. FAO. 2001. COAG/01/6 Reducing Agricultural Vulnerability to Storm-Related Disasters. The 16th Session of the Committee on Agriculture. 26-30 March 2001, Rome, Italy. FAO/GIEWS. Foodcrops and Shortages. No. 4 September/October and No. 5 November 2000. Rome, Italy. National Food and Nutrition Surveillance System Team. 1999. Food and Nutrition Situation in Indonesia 1998-1999. Jakarta. Verelst, Luc. 1999. Recommendations for Geo-referencing EM-DAT Data Base. Consultancy Report prepared for the Asia FIVIMS Project and the CRED. July 1999. Rome.
288 Annex XIV APDC/01/10
DEVELOPING FARMING SYSTEMS AND BEST PRACTICES FOR DROUGHT-PRONE AREAS*
ABSTRACT
Drought prone countries in Asia and the Pacific experience wide fluctuations in agricultural productivity. The prevalence of traditional subsistence agriculture increases the possibility of crop failures during frequent periods of dry weather. This paper discusses the impact of drought on the agricultural sector in Asia and the Pacific. After taking into account the present scenario and following the implementation of strategies for drought management, this paper sets out several recommendations. They include intervention at various stages to meet short, medium and long-term goals.
Farmers’ participation in technology development, drought monitoring, contingency crop planning and the overall agricultural decision-making process are considered important in working towards measures to mitigate the effects of drought. Various options for soil and rainwater conservation, integrated nutrient and crop management, development of water resources and watershed and alternate land use systems are examined. This paper advocates the development of agro-economic farming zones and proposes a structure for on-farm research, including capacity building for farmers.
* Prepared by FAO Consultant, H.P. Singh, Director, Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture, India.
289 CONTENTS
Page 1. INTRODUCTION ...... 292 1.1 Causes of Drought ...... 292 1.2 Frequency of Drought ...... 294 1.3 Impact of Drought ...... 296
2. CURRENT FARMING SYSTEMS AND PRACTICES IN DROUGHT-PRONE AREAS...... 297
3. DROUGHT MANAGEMENT STRATEGY ...... 299
4. NEW APPROACHES AND METHODS ...... 301 4.1 On-farm Research...... 301 4.2 Farming Systems Perspective ...... 301 4.3 Farmers’ Participation in Technology Development ...... 302 4.4 Early Warning, Drought Monitoring and Decision Support Systems ...... 303 4.5 Contingency Crop Planning ...... 303 4.6 Integrated Watershed Management ...... 304 4.6.1 In-situ Rainwater Harvesting ...... 305 4.6.2 Village and Farm Ponds ...... 306 4.6.3 Underground Cisterns ...... 306 4.7 Crops, Varieties and Cropping Systems...... 307 4.7.1 Crop Combination ...... 307 4.7.2 Weed Management ...... 307 4.7.3 Planting Density ...... 307 4.8 Soil and Crop Management ...... 308 4.8.1 Tillage ...... 308 4.8.2 Surface Mulching ...... 309 4.9 Integrated Nutrient Management ...... 309 4.10 Alternative Land Use Systems ...... 310 4.11 Research and Development Strategy ...... 312 4.11.1 Short-term Measures ...... 313 4.11.2 Medium-term Measures ...... 313 4.11.3 Long-term Measures ...... 313
290 CONTENTS (continued)
Page
5. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 314 5.1 Gaps in Research and Technology Development ...... 315 5.1.1 Grass Root Extension System ...... 315 5.2 Consortia Development ...... 316 5.3 Structure for On-farm Program ...... 316 5.3.1 Policy Framework ...... 316
Figure 1 Water balance components of monsoon Asia showing hydrological regions ...... 293
Figure 2 Relationship between drought area in India and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) ...... 295
REFERENCES ...... 317
291 1. INTRODUCTION
1. The Asia-Pacific region comprising 35 countries stretches east west from Iran to Cook Islands and north south from Mongolia to New Zealand. The Indian Ocean provides moisture for the summer monsoon over the southwestern area, while the China Sea, Gulf of Siam and Bay of Bengal are the main sources of water for the winter monsoon, which affects the northeastern region. Northwest India and much of Pakistan are extremely dry and receive limited rainfall annually. The desert and semi-arid conditions found here are in marked contrast to the tropical areas of coastal India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh where annual rainfalls range from 1,000 to 2,000 mm. The wettest terrain is found in Southeast Asia and the Pacific region where rains are abundant. On a national basis, most Asian countries receive an annual rainfall of between 1,000 and 4,000 mm. Its seasonal pattern can be classified into (i) a single rainy season, (ii) two rainy seasons, and (iii) uniform seasonal rain with no distinct wet season. A composite map of water balance for Asia (Isamu Kayane, 1971) shows that except for Indonesia, Malaysia, Central China, and Japan, all other countries in the region have a distinct dry season (Figure 1). Agricultural productivity throughout the region is strongly related to variations in precipitation.
2. The population engaged in agriculture in the Asia and Pacific countries varies from 50 per cent in Malaysia to 94 per cent in Nepal (ADB, 1996). Traditional agricultural practices continue to dominate in most countries. Widespread droughts and floods have caused severe crop failures leading to strained economies, abnormal food shortages, and at times famine (Table 1). The annual increase in human and livestock population further adds to the agricultural problems. In lowland areas (with altitudes of < 300 m), which represent a significant proportion of the total agricultural area in most countries, rice cultivation followed by wheat (irrigated) is the main cropping system. In the intermediate elevations (of 300-1,500 m), rice, maize, millet, sorghum, cotton, pulses, oilseeds, rubber, oil palm, coffee, sugarcane, fruits, and vegetables are grown. This paper discusses the issues of drought management in this zone.
3. Drought is a temporary negative deviation in the region’s moisture status. Because of the variability of monsoon rains in Asia and the Pacific, the actual annual rainfall is sometimes significantly below the ‘normal’ expected. This results in drought, which leads to crop failure, depletion of surface and groundwater resources, large-scale human migration and loss of livestock and human lives (Oliver and Fairbridge, 1987).
1.1 Causes of Drought
4. Widespread and persistent atmospheric subsidence arising from general circulation of the atmosphere causes drought. Recent studies show that El Niño contributed substantially to summer drought. Krishnamurthy and Surgi (1987) observed
292 Source: Isamu Kayane, 1971.
Figure 1. Water balance components of monsoon Asia showing hydrological regions
293 Table 1. Areas Most Vulnerable to Drought in the Asia-Pacific Region
Country Vulnerable Regions Pakistan Baluchistan, Northwest Frontier, and Sind provinces India 185 districts in the western and southern regions Nepal Hills and Terai region Myanmar Mandalay in the rain shadow dry zone of the Arkan mountains Sri Lanka Northern, eastern, and south-eastern regions Thailand Northern, north-eastern, and central regions Malaysia Eastern half of the State of Negri Sembilan and eastern quarter Of the State of Sabah Indonesia Southeast of Jogjakarta on Java island and Lombak in Nusa Tenggara Vietnam Northern provinces Cambodia Battambang, Prey Veng, and Svay Rieng provinces Philippines Ilocos and Cagayan valleys in Luzon island Source: Steyaert, et. al. 1981. a close relationship between deficit rainfall years and the ENSO index (Figure 2). Drought frequency is also influenced by climatic changes arising from increased concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), methane and nitrous oxide. The indiscriminate release of gases (e.g., chlorofluoro carbon) has altered the radiation balance of the atmosphere and thus caused temperatures to rise. The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the World Meteorological Organization projected a temperature increase of 0.1 to 0.3oC by 2010, and 0.4 to 2.0oC by 2020 in South Asia. This may result in a decrease in cereal production by 5 to 15 per cent in the region (Houghton, et. al., 1990). Extensive deforestation over the centuries has also altered the hydrologic cycle and thus enhanced aridity in several countries.
1.2 Frequency of Drought
5. A study of moderate and severe droughts in India, indicated that except for small pockets in northeastern India and Kerala, the country has been frequently affected by dry weather (Anonymous, 1994a). Based on historical records, Jaiswal and Kolte (1981) reported 120 drought or famine-like incidences in various parts of the country between 1291 and 1979. During the 20th century alone, droughts of various intensities were experienced over a span of 28 years in India (Venkateswarlu, 1997). Only limited data on their occurrence between 1950 and 1980 are available for the Asia-Pacific region (Steyaert, et. al., 1981). During this time, a minimum of four droughts were recorded in Laos and Nepal, while a maximum of 14 occurred in Thailand (Table 2).
294 0
20
40 Area (%) DROUGHT AREA 60
1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1970 2
1
0
1 Standard Deviation 2 SOI
3 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970
Source: Krishnamurthy and Naomi Surgi, 1987.
Figure 2. Relationship between drought area in India and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)
Table 2. Frequency of Drought 1950-80 in the Asia-Pacific Region
Country Drought Years Pakistan 1958, 1965, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1975, 1979 India 1950, 1951, 1952, 1958, 1963, 1965, 1966, 1968, 1972, 1974, 1979 Nepal 1964, 1974, 1977, 1979 Bangladesh 1950, 1957, 1959, 1965, 1972, 1974, 1979 Myanmar 1954, 1957, 1960, 1963, 1966, 1972, 1977 Sri Lanka 1961, 1966, 1967, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1979 Thailand 1952, 1953, 1954, 1955, 1958, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1972, 1974, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979 Malaysia 1958, 1959, 1961, 1963, 1972, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978 Indonesia 1961, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1972, 1973, 1976, 1977, 1979 Vietnam 1957, 1963, 1966, 1976, 1977, 1979, 1980 Cambodia 1954, 1955, 1958, 1963, 1968, 1960, 1972, 1974, 1976, 1977, 1979 Laos 1954, 1976, 1979, 1980 Philippines 1957, 1958, 1968, 1969, 1972, 1977, 1978 Source: Steyaert, et. al. (1981).
295 1.3 Impact of Drought
6. Aridity leads to crop loss, human and animal malnutrition, land degradation, economic downturn, disease outbreak and migration of people and livestock (Kulshrestha, 1997). It also adversely affects food security at the farm and national levels. Agricultural losses in India were as high as 50 per cent during the drought of 1957-58. The 1982-83 drought in Australia (caused by accelerated wind erosion and massive bush fires) reduced crop and livestock output (Allan and Heathcote, 1987). Crop production fell by 31 per cent and the sheep population by 6 million, while cattle dropped by almost 2 million. Farm incomes were reduced by 24 per cent and the cash surplus per farm fell by 45-50 per cent. National employment dropped by 2 per cent and rural exports decreased by approximately US$ 500 million Chemical fertilizer manufacturers and flour and cereal processors lost 10-11 per cent of their normal production.
7. The 1987 drought in India caused pearl millet production in the rainfall zones of <300, 300-400 and >400 mm to drop by 78, 74 and 43 per cent respectively (Ramakrishna and Rao, 1991). Groundnut production was also substantially reduced (Victor et. al., 1991). For eastern India, the annual food grain loss over the 1970 to 1996 period was estimated at US$ 400 million, which is equivalent to 8 per cent of the value of the region’s food grain production (Pandey et. al., 2000). The overall impact was even more pronounced on fodder availability than on food grains.
8. The duration of fluid availability in water bodies is greatly reduced during a dry year. They evaporate even before the onset of summer. The groundwater table declines and shallow wells become dry. Sometimes, the concentration of toxic elements such as arsenic, fluoride, and nitrate increases. In deep wells, salt concentration rises due to the lowering of the water table. The poor suffer most since they own shallow wells and cannot afford to deepen them.
9. Drought causes land degradation because of the depletion of forage resources, overgrazing and indiscriminate cutting of vegetation. This is followed by the distress sale of cattle and even small ruminants. Next, migration occurs and with it, the extension of land degradation to other areas. There have been instances where large-scale mortality of livestock and mismanagement in the disposal of carcasses has brought about epidemics and environmental hazards. The size of herds fell by as much as 52 per cent (Anonymous, 1994a).
10. Recurring aridity changes the socio-economic values and attitudes of the people affected by it (Purohit, 1993). Rising prices, contraction of charity, credit reduction and consequently increasing interest rate on loans, diminishing grain trade, growing petty crime rates and abnormal migration of people and their herds, etc. are some of the more common outcomes. The agricultural sector can no longer provide basic employment for rural workers. The consequences are out-migration, unemployment, and the creation of city slums. The rural women who are left behind are compelled to do extra work in order to survive. Poor quality drinking water, human exodus and
296 taking of infants to the workplace are responsible for high infant and child mortality, while high female motality is caused by meager diets, which are well below the levels required for hard labor.
11. The entire society suffers because of rising prices and additional taxation, but the farmer is hardest hit, as it is the agricultural sector, which bears the brunt in terms of production loss. There is thus a need for both national and international intervention to protect them from devastation caused by dry weather.
12. This scenario in the Asia-Pacific region indicates that drought is a growing threat to the very fabric of its society and environment. Therefore, more efforts are required to concentrate on policy, infrastructure and technological issues that are related to this natural calamity at national, regional and global levels, and they should involve both governmental and intergovernmental agencies. National agricultural research organizations, international institutions, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and the private sector need to work together to achieve the goal of sustainable agriculture based on the most efficient use of available natural resources, i.e., land, water, and vegetation in an integrated manner and within a viable farming network.
13. Drought is not just a temporary adversity. Relief measures such as foreign assistance, and tax imposition on the middle class to meet food needs are merely national attempts to address the secondary problems brought about by it. The basic ones are continuing land destruction and creation of deserts in vulnerable areas, which if left unchecked will become irreversible in the near future. There are also many direct factors that impinge on land degradation. But, since drought has a direct impact on agricultural production, any effort aimed at controlling it and protecting natural resources will greatly alleviate its adverse impact on agricultural productivity.
2. CURRENT FARMING SYSTEMS AND PRACTICES IN DROUGHT- PRONE AREAS
14. A farming system comprises several components such as land, water, plants, inputs, livestock, equipment, credit, and marketing (Raman and Balaguru, 1992). It attempts to deal more effectively with the problems associated with complex, marginal, diverse and risk-prone agriculture and disadvantaged farmers who operate in a harsh environment. Such a system should be regarded as a part of a larger socio-economic framework that includes the overall rural way of life and its related administrative structure. In the case of dry-land farming, it must consider several factors such as natural resources, commodities, external and internal inputs, and marketing. It has been implemented in Nepal through an agricultural research and extension network so that agro-ecological farming operations can be established (Devendra and Yokohama, 1999).
15. After decades of monocropping using traditional slash and burn methods, a growing interest in intercropping and crop sequencing to overcome drought in Asia and the Pacific region has emerged. In the latter half of the 1980s, crop yields rose
297 due to the introduction of new crops such as kohlrabi, snow pea, Chinese kale, green onion, and indigo to traditional agriculture (Anonymous, 1994b).
16. Small-scale upland farming in the region is generally rainfed and on marginal land, and this is responsible for the high risks experienced. Rather than depend on annual crops alone, it would be desirable to spread the risk by engaging in a wide range of farming activities including tree crops and livestock. In the upland areas of Asia, perennial tree crop agriculture such as fruit, paulownia, rubber, and white mulberry cultivation along with arable crops have been the traditional practice. Recently, many Malaysian farmers have integrated livestock and forestry with arable crops (Anonymous, 1994b). In drought-prone northern Indonesia (Prasetyo et. al., 2000), many farmers have adopted a mixed crop-livestock production system to overcome water shortages. In the uplands, cattle rearing is combined with vegetable and maize cultivation. In the Philippines, an integrated sugarcane-livestock farming system is practised to reduce risk and improve overall productivity. Agro forestry has only being promoted on a large scale in the last 15 years. Some exploratory surveys carried out in eastern India revealed that the most common mixed cropping systems practiced include a combination of rice with pigeon pea, mung bean, black gram, and sesame and pigeon pea with black gram, pearl millet, sorghum and sun hemp. Niger + sesame intercropping is adopted in some upland cultivation (Singh and Singh, 2000). In eastern India, pigeon pea and common beans are, by tradition, planted on field bunds. Thus, in Asia and the Pacific where small upland farms are in the majority, crop diversification is more popular than production diversification, i.e., horticulture, livestock, and fisheries are integrated with arable crops. The existing gap in agricultural research and development in arid and semi-arid areas requires renewed attention not only for risk management to fight drought, but also to capitalize on location specific strengths and be competitive in global trade.
17. In the dry zones of Myanmar, sesame + sorghum, cotton + pigeon pea, groundnut + butter bean and rice + mung bean are important inter-crops (IRRI, 1991). In the drought-prone lowlands of Indonesia, the primary crop is rice. The main feed supply to livestock is rice straw, supplemented by fodder tree leaves and residues of baby corn (ADB, 1996). Hence, there is a combination of crops, trees, and livestock. In the case of eastern India, farmers practice mixed cropping such as wheat + mustard, chickpea + mustard, wheat + barley, and wheat + linseed, after the main lowland rice crop has been harvested. Rice-rice, jute-rice and rice followed by wheat, lentil, chickpea, mustard, linseed, pea, sunflower, mung bean are the other rice based cropping systems in dry parts of eastern India (Singh and Singh, 2000). In the Philippines, rice-corn, rice-mungbean, rice-groundnut, and rice-tobacco cropping is adopted in the arid Ilocos and Cagayan valleys in Central Luzon Island (IRRI, 1991). The growing period for rice is shortened if transplanting is late because of a delay in the onset of rains. In jute-rice cropping, jute harvesting extends into the rice-planting season. This increases the risk of water stress during the grain filling stage of rice cultivation. Farmers tend to use older seedlings in many instances to overcome this problem. Changes in cropping pattern, variety, input use, and replacing rice with more
298 remunerative crops are some of the recommendations made for areas which experience less severe droughts, and where their occurrence is confined to the early growing season (Pandey et. al., 1999).
18. Most of the innovations in horticulture and cropping systems are based on decades of research. Some originate from indigenous technical knowledge. Horticulture and animal husbandry are important considerations to alleviate drought in the lowland, and hence research on them merit attention. There have been success stories to amply demonstrate that the more diverse the production system, the lower the risk of failure at the farm-level.
3. DROUGHT MANAGEMENT STRATEGY
19. Drought is a natural disaster with serious and long-term socio-economic implications. It is therefore vital to develop appropriate measures to overcome it. They are currently being implemented by the following sectors: a) Government Sector
● Relevant policies at the national, regional and district levels, ● Rural development infrastructure, and ● Input supply, marketing and farm advisory services. b) Non-government Sector
● NGOs, ● Rural institutions, local self-governments, ● Private sector, ● Philanthropic organizations, ● Community codes (tribes, herders), and ● International aid agencies. c) Research and Development Institutions
● Effective rainwater and soil management by linking on-station and on-farm research, ● Weather forecasts, ● Contingency crop planning/mid-season corrections, and ● Alternative land use systems.
20. Research and development (R&D) in the areas of agro-meteorology, dry-land farming and hydrology have contributed substantially to the knowledge base for drought management in Asia and the Pacific. Progress has, to some extent, been made to devise useful technologies, inject some dynamism into agricultural production and create appropriate farming systems. Of late, the focus has shifted significantly from
299 crisis response to risk management through weather forecasts and advance planning to meet emergencies. This shift in R&D strategy has had some significant impact.
21. In the case of India, where drought has been endemic for the past 150 years, a fairly organized management system to tackle it has emerged. However, the steps taken in the early stages were essentially ad-hoc in nature. Relief work was confined to providing employment to the distressed population rather than having any long-term perspective. This method proved to be ineffective. It was only with the launching of the Drought Prone Areas Program (DPAP) in the 1970’s, that a long-term plan incorporating both technological and organizational innovations for the integrated development of drought-prone areas was evolved (Anonymous, 1994a). It succeeded in dealing with the infamous droughts of 1987 and 1999-2000. Its functions are as follows:
a) Distribute essential commodities such as water, fodder and food at subsidized rates, b) Optimize utilization of resources in affected areas with emphasis on primary ones, viz., soil, water, vegetation, livestock, manpower, etc. through integrated watershed management, c) Provide employment to the stricken population (e.g. the Food for Work Program), and d) Create direct and indirect wage employment and implement short gestation development programmes to improve overall living conditions of the rural poor.
22. During the past three decades, major research efforts have been made to improve the productivity of rain-fed areas in India and other countries of the region, with the aim of curtailing the adverse consequences of drought. Relevant agricultural practices such as suitable crops, improved varieties, modern tillage and seeding practices, soil and rainwater conservation, water harvesting, fertilizer usage, weed control, alternative land use systems, and plant protection have been developed through intensive and location specific research efforts. However, farmers, especially the small ones who form the bulk of the stakeholders, have not adopted many of them to conserve natural resources (soil and water). The integrated watershed management approach, which is the core strategy of the national programme to develop drought-prone areas in India, has not had the desired impact. Even the implementation of successful pilot projects has been poor despite the huge investments made on them. The following factors among others, are responsible for this setback:
a) Technology bias on biophysical issues (lack of appreciation of farmers’ conditions, their priorities and resources), b) Poor top-down extension strategy, c) Lack of on-farm research in rainwater harvesting and watershed management,
300 d) Excessive reliance on new crop varieties (lack of appreciation of farming system perspectives and insufficient diversification of production systems), and e) Inadequate rural infrastructure.
4. NEW APPROACHES AND METHODS
23 In view of the formidable task involved in drought management, a great deal remains to be done to tackle the problem. Projections for the next two decades must be considered, and new approaches and strategies adopted to meet the challenge.
4.1 On-farm Research
24. On-farm research has been conducted in India since the mid-1970s. However, its focus is primarily on demonstrating or, at best, testing the results from the research institutes and agricultural universities. Virtually no attempt has been made to tailor them to the needs of farmers. Therefore, once the projects were completed, the farmers reverted to their original practices. This was the case in many pilot projects, including many of the model watershed ones (46 in total) implemented in various agro-ecological regions in India during the 1980s. Hence, technologies suited to the farmers’ socio-economic conditions and the indigenous environment can only be adopted if on-farm research is conducted with the participation of scientists, extension workers and farmers as a team.
4.2 Farming Systems Perspective
25. Farming systems in Asia and the Pacific are by and large complex and characterized by several environmental and socio-economic variables. Addressing only one of these components, e.g., crop variety or fertilizer use does not generally result in a dramatic increase in productivity. Mixed farming Ð crop production and animal husbandry Ð for risk aversion, remains the mainstay of subsistence farmers. Hence, it is the only management strategy that is suitable for their adoption.
26. Planning farming systems research requires an understanding of current farming practices. The following four sets of information are needed to initiate such research in real field situations:
a) Socio-economic conditions of the people, their perceptions, priorities, and levels of education, b) Natural resource conditions, c) Technology (research information) developed at the research centers, and d) Infrastructure (market and input issues) (Singh, 1997).
301 27. This data must be collected and carefully analyzed before selecting the technological options for field-testing. Emphasis should be placed on improving the farmer’s technical knowledge and strict prescriptions of component technologies should be avoided. Where necessary, adjustments should be made to suit their requirements.
28. In the next two decades, there is a need to continuously enhance productivity and economic returns in rain-fed agriculture in Asia and the Pacific. This, together with the protection and conservation of the environment and natural resources, will eventually lead to an improved quality of life for all Asian countries. The growing human and livestock population in the region demands a constant increase in land productivity.
29. In irrigated areas, a synergy of production components (viz., improved variety, water management, fertiliser use, and plant protection) usually results in a quantum leap in productivity. Farmers are impressed and will readily accept the new technology. However, in rain-fed areas, such improved technology could at best only operate at a very low level. Water, which is the most important input, is an uncertain component. Fertilizer is seldom used because of inherent risks. Given this scenario, it is difficult to convince farmers to adopt cost intensive farming methods. This has been one of the main reasons for their non-adoption, despite the vigorous extension efforts made to promote them. As long as the risk associated with their application appears high, they will remain unacceptable.
30. Crop cultivation alone cannot sustain dry-land farming. All factors of production must be carefully examined. With their integration, it is possible to achieve an optimal system that can increase productivity in rain-fed areas.
4.3 Farmers’ Participation in Technology Development
31. In the past, farmers in rain-fed areas have, by and large, ignored technological advancements in agriculture. Pretty (1995) developed the following set of typologies regarding their participation in development programmes:
● Manipulative participation, ● Passive participation, ● Participation for material incentive, ● Functional participation, ● Interactive participation, and ● Self-mobilization.
32. Most extension efforts have hitherto been oriented towards the first four types. However, a methodology to include the following additional aspects may be appropriate to involve farmers in overcoming drought:
● Include them in resource appraisal, ● Conduct demonstrations to arrest land degradation and water and soil loss with such tools as the portable rainfall simulator,
302 ● Interact with them to obtain their perceptions on: (i) drought management issues, (ii) watershed and its relevance; and (iii) sustainability of rain-fed farming, and
● Identify and list indigenous technical knowledge so that it can be utilized.
33. Constant interaction may eventually lead to voluntary farmer participation or self-mobilization. This should be the strategy for technology transfer in rain-fed areas in the next decade.
4.4 Early Warning, Drought Monitoring and Decision Support Systems
34. Rainfall distribution and its quantum are the two key factors that determine crop productivity. Weather forecasts can broadly be classified into three categories, viz., (1) short range (validity of up to 3 days), (2) medium range (validity from 3 to 10 days), and (3) long range (validity from 10 to 30 days). Early warning is given by the meteorological departments in many countries and relayed through the press, radio and television. The latest technological innovations to monitor droughts include remote sensing. Kawan Nawa (2001) reported its use along with geographic information systems (GIS) in Zambia. Monitoring of spatial drought conditions (at block level) in a few villages in Rayalaseema, India using satellite data was reported by Jayaseelan et. al. (2001). The threshold Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was compared with moisture deficit values to assess the extent of aridity in affected areas.
35. Management of mid-season and terminal droughts is important as it impinges on productivity. Various methods have been devised but they could not be applied because of the lack of Early Warning System (EWS) on the onset of dry weather. Medium range weather forecasts are now in use in India as a form of EWS to control diseases and pests. These, together with recommended practices to alleviate aridity can help arrive at optimal decisions for drought management. An example is the harvesting of sorghum for the fodder or ratoon crop based on physiological maturity. Groundnut harvesting is based on planting date and pegging. Intercropping with legumes should also take advantage of this technology. Although the yield is reduced, it is compensated by higher prices in the market. Thus a decision support system incorporating components such as crop growth models, advanced agricultural practices, short-term market forecast, and resource information can help produce the range of options available and assist in giving a weighted optimal decision from a number of choices. This approach can save a crop and thus assure farmers of some economic returns.
4.5 Contingency Crop Planning
36. Several technologies have been developed and tested to enhance crop production under adverse weather conditions. Often, variable rainfall distribution poses a constraint. Therefore, every cropping strategy should be based on water availability
303 from year to year. The contingency crop plans during times of rainfall deficiency are given below:
i) Normal monsoon season followed by inadequate rainfall: If the latter occurs after planting, mid-season corrections such as a reduction in plant population (thinning), the use of green material as fodder or for organic recycling, spraying anti-transpirants (e.g., atrazine, borax, kaolin), weeding, and soil mulching, can be adopted to overcome water shortage. ii) Late monsoon season followed by normal rainfall: Here, the crop-growing period is between 40 and 90 days. The selection of short-duration varieties is important to suit arid conditions and accommodate the late onset of rain. Pulse and oilseed planting is recommended. Fodder and mustard can be grown after the seasonal crop harvest to make use of the late rainfall. iii) Late monsoon season followed by inadequate rainfall: Leguminous crops and oilseeds perform better under such conditions. They mature in a short period and give reasonable yields. To minimise risk and avoid complete crop failure, mixed cropping is advisable, in case the rainfall pattern is not suited to any specific crop.
37. These recommendations can be made following a comprehensive analysis of location specific situations through early warning and correct decision-making.
4.6 Integrated Watershed Management
38. The watershed is the most appropriate ecological area unit for the efficient and homogenous management of land and water resources in any arid terrain. A suitable watershed area can be selected for purposes of easy implementation. Based on a detailed survey of resources, such as land capability, a combination of conventional and participatory approaches and technological options with respect to soil and water conservation, and rainwater harvesting, agroforestry and livestock management can be adopted to minimize the risks caused by drought. This approach ensures planning based on available water, its priority use and the preparation of an integrated action plan to exploit natural resources, after taking into consideration the capacity and the socio-economic status of the rural people.
39. The central objective of watershed management is to conserve soil and water for productive farming in rain-fed areas. The first task of soil management is to reduce erosion by controlling runoff. The next is to conserve rainwater for plant, domestic and livestock needs. In this context, runoff control can be implemented in the following two stages:
a) Retain the bulk of rainwater within the field, subject to available soil and water storage capacity, i.e., in situ water harvesting, and
304 b) Divert excess water for:
● Storage in village pond, augment recharge of deep groundwater, ● Recharge shallow aquifers, and ● Storage in farm ponds. 40. Maintaining an adequate supply of rainwater to the village pond is the first priority as this is a common property resource utilized for domestic (e.g., washing) and livestock consumption. Recharging shallow aquifers is the next best option, as they are owned by a large number of farmers. Recharging groundwater is possible only in wetter areas and those with adequate catchment. Such situations are scarce and also, sharing by landowners can be a problem. When recharging aquifers is not possible in the absence of water bearing rocks, the farm pond remains the only option to conserve excess runoff. It can be used to serve both the community and the individual farmer. The latter is easiest as it eliminates sharing cost (labor, inputs). Small ponds owned by individual farmers merit greater attention.
4.6.1 In-situ Rainwater Harvesting
41. This is a vital factor in drought control. The principle here is to reduce runoff to facilitate either greater water intake in the soil or direct it to planting by modifying the land configuration to enhance its storage in the soil. Extensive research efforts in this area began in India in the 1930’s and intensified during the last three decades. They resulted in the development of several useful technologies. Field and contour bunding, ridging, and key line and contour cultivation have in the past enhanced in situ soil storage of rainwater. In the 1980s, the concept of vegetative barriers to replace or supplement earthen bunds was tried in a number of countries but with mixed results. This approach is scientifically sound and warrants further on-farm research. A study was made to compare constructed micro-catchments of 4 per cent slope, ridge-furrow system (60:40 cm), and flat regular planting with soil moisture storage and the yield of pearl millet. The ridge-furrow system and micro-catchments resulted in 210 per cent and 120 per cent higher yields, respectively than regular flat planting. The surface runoff varied from 7 per cent to 15 per cent, and was highest in flat planting followed by bed planting and ridge-furrow (Singh, 1973). Tree crops with deep roots can use water stored in the substratum and hence, are recommended in sandy soils (Singh, 1978). The results of studies on in situ rainwater harvesting for jujube (Ziziphus mauritiana) supported this hypothesis (Sharma et. al., 1986). It was observed that the crust forming nature of sandy soils cause the natural catchments to be sufficiently stabilized over 2 to 3 seasons (Sharma, 1986).
42. Gupta and Muthana (1985) developed circular catchments of 1.5 m radius and 2 per cent slope as runoff generating areas. The technique proved effective in improving the moisture content of the plant root zone. Later, Singh (1998) reported that these circular catchments should be constructed as half-moon terraces to divert maximum rainwater to the planting basin.
305 4.6.2 Village and Farm Ponds
43. The former is larger and can serve as reservoirs to mitigate the scarcity of drinking water particularly for livestock and to provide for the daily needs of villagers such as washing, cleaning, and bathing. Here, water is available from two months to a year after the wet season, depending on the catchment characteristics, runoff volume and its utilization. Heavy sedimentation, high evaporation and seepage, and pollution limit the utility of these ponds. The following is recommended for pond development and the optimum utilization of stored water:
● Reduce sediment input by constructing silt traps at the inlet, ● Optimize depth in relation to surface area, and ● Restrict entry of animals and human beings to pond area to minimize pollution, and check defecation in the catchment area.
44. Natural farm ponds are for pre-sowing, protective irrigation and livestock consumption. The scheduling of limited water supply and setting priority for its allocation are important considerations. The first task is to reduce conveyance and evaporation and to direct water to the root zone. One supplemental/life saving irrigation of 20 mm at the most critical stages of crop growth during prolonged drought can increase the grain yield by 30 to 80 per cent (Venkateswarlu, 1981).
45. A pond size of 10.5 m * 3 m * 4 m = 126 m3 is adequate to provide life-saving irrigation of 20 mm to 0.5 ha of cropped land. This includes water loss of up to 26 mm due to evaporation and seepage. The reason for the abnormally small width is to make it practical for covering the pond with locally available material such as stone slabs and thatched blocks across the length to check water loss via evaporation.
46. Prior to the advent of the watershed concept, rainwater storage in drought- prone areas were by traditional means, i.e. rainwater collected from rooftops and underground cisterns were used to store runoff from natural or constructed catchments. In the past, these methods have met the drinking needs of the rural people, especially those in remote areas. For the present, these sources are used primarily for livestock consumption, washing, cleaning, etc. and also for nurseries or trees planted in the vicinity of backyards.
4.6.3 Underground Cisterns
47. They, together with constructed or natural catchments (including rooftops) are prevalent in areas with up to 300-mm rainfall. Rainwater from such storage is still being used for human consumption in remote areas. The cisterns are locally known as tanka in Rajasthan, India and are built by individual households or the community since ancient times (Vangani, et. al., 1988). An annual rainfall of 130 to 250 mm (at 60 per cent probability), and a catchment area of 420 to 780 m2 can yield 21,000:l runoff, and this can meet the drinking and cooking needs for a family of 6 throughout the year.
306 4.7 Crops, Varieties and Cropping Systems
48. The prevailing cropping system may not necessarily be the most suitable one. Farmers grow certain crops either for convenience or by tradition. Their first priority is to produce food for the family and livestock. This needs to be balanced with the requirements for natural resource management on the one hand, and socio-economic and market demands on the other. Alternative crops and varieties for different periods of sowing, together with those that are suitable despite any delays in sowing or re-sowing, and yet can sell globally need to be identified. Due recognition must also be given to indigenous technical knowledge. Among other practices of crop management, integrated pest management (IPM) assumes special importance in drought mitigation. The healthier the plants the better would be their ability to tolerate the dry weather.
49. Inter-cropping has been studied extensively in several countries to sustain production in rain-fed areas. The broad principles governing the choice of crops in this system, together with focus on soil moisture stress management are discussed below.
4.7.1 Crop Combination
50. A short-duration, shallow to medium rooted and a long-duration, deep-rooted crop would be desirable. Cropping intensities adopted would vary from additive series in higher rainfall areas (>800 mm) to replacement series in lower rainfall terrain (250 to 800 mm). The best inter-cropping practices are now available. Research however, should continue in these areas so that new varieties emerging from crop improvement programmes can be evaluated.
4.7.2 Weed Management
51. It poses as a formidable task for farmers. Weeds compete with crops for moisture and nutrients, both of which constitute the most limiting factors for crop growth during drought. When improved management practices are adopted, efficient weed control becomes even more important, otherwise weeds and not the crops benefit from the costly input. Most crops are sensitive to weed competition in the early stages of growth. Timely weed control is thus essential.
4.7.3 Planting Density
52. Optimum plant population and row spacing are also crucial considerations. Generally, wider plant spacing is recommended in drought-prone areas. Water can thus be saved for use later in the season, so that the harvest index and total grain yield can be increased. However, too low densities may not fully utilize the available water during the season, while high ones may use too much early in the season. Hence, a balance between the two must be maintained, depending on the situation at hand.
307 Half the battle to overcome drought is won if a good and healthy crop stand is established. The above inputs, when provided on time will contribute to this prerequisite. Simple and efficient farm implements and tools are necessary. For instance, their availability for ridge-furrow planting, weed control, and simultaneous planting of two crops for intercropping in required crop row ratios, can substantially promote the adoption of these practices in dry and semi-dry areas. Concerted R&D efforts are thus justified to achieve partial mechanisation of the small farm sector in rain-fed terrain.
4.8 Soil and Crop Management
53. Different land configurations to prevent runoff have been discussed earlier. Other major aspects that may merit attention are tillage and the control of surface evaporation.
4.8.1 Tillage
54. It has a marked influence on soil and rainwater conservation and makes the soil surface more permeable to water intake. Deep tillage (25-30 cm) breaks the hard layers, facilitates faster penetration of rainwater and enhances the root system. The subsoil resources are thus utilised more efficiently. Off-season or pre-rainy season tillage also has a visible impact on rainwater intake and weed control, besides improving soil moisture content for off-season planting (Table 3).
Table 3. Effect of Ploughing on Soil Moisture in Alfisols
Moisture (%)* Depth of soil (cm) Ploughed Area Non-ploughed Area 0-15 10.7 3.6 15-30 13.2 7.1 30-60 13.3 8.7 60-90 13.4 Dry Source: Anonymous (1986). * After a total of 81 mm rainfall in May.
55. Excessive tillage however is not recommended. It accentuates wind erosion in sandy soils and does not permit build-up of soil organic matter. Therefore, minimum tillage together with organic waste recycling is best to support a good crop stand. This may also lead to an increase in organic matter due to reduced exposure to high atmospheric temperature.
308 4.8.2 Surface Mulching
56. It can help conserve soil and rainwater. Studies in various locations in India demonstrated its usefulness in reducing water loss from the soil surface. It also significantly lessens runoff from cropped fields and assists in weed control. However, it is generally not popular with farmers due to operational constraints. In mixed farming, using straw as mulch adversely affects the fodder supply. Organic waste material can be utilised as surface mulch instead. This practice is feasible in tree crop areas where only the planting basin needs to be covered.
57. Work has recently begun on green material soil or land cover, i.e., to combine mulch and manure in different locations in India. After planting, Gliricidia and Leucaena branches/loppings are used as cover and incorporated in the soil following canopy development. Encouraging results from this practice have been reported (Singh, et. al., 1998).
4.9 Integrated Nutrient Management
58. Good soil quality is vital for plants to withstand the dry weather. It can be realised by adopting integrated nutrient management (INM), which is the key to maintaining and sustaining soil productivity. Extensive studies conducted at research and on-farm stations have shown the importance of farmyard manure (FYM), composted organic wastes, and bio fertilisers in supplementing the nutrient requirements of crops and providing stability to yields under rain-fed conditions (Singh, et. al., 1999; Venkateswarlu and Wani, 1999). Fifty per cent of the fertilizer nitrogen (N) could be replaced with the use of FYM or compost in various soils. Manure application not only substantially reduces the fertilizer N requirement but also improves soil quality and crop yields to a sustainable level (Table 4).
Table 4. Chemical Fertiliser and Farmyard Manure Applications and Yields of Finger Millet in India-1
Mean Yield (t/ha-2) In Years Treatment (annual) Grain Yield (kg/ha-2) <1 1-2 >2-3 >3-4 >4 Control 1,060 5 11 1 0 0 FYM 2,448 0 2 12 3 0 NPK (50-25-25) 2,542 0 3 9 5 0 FYM + NPK (25-12.5-12.5) 2,875 0 0 10 7 0 FYM + NPK (50-25-25) 3,456 0 0 3 11 3 Source: Hegde and Gajanan (1996). 1 Effects of continuous application of chemical fertiliser and farmyard manure on the productivity and stability of rain-fed finger millet for 17 years (1978-1994) in red loam soil in India. 2 FYM = farmyard manure @ 10 t/ha; NPK = nitrogen-phosphorus-potassium in kg/ha.
309 59. The availability of FYM in sufficient quantities for field crop planting is a major hindrance to its widespread adoption. Thus, alternative sources such as green leaf manure and crop residue have been evaluated at a number of locations in India. Recent studies recommended fertilizer application of 20 kg N/ha supplemented by green leaf land cover, including lopping of Leucaena or Gliricidia for Alfisols and Vertisols.
60. Most drought prone farms have a single crop-growing season. Double cropping is possible in higher rainfall areas where a legume crop can be rotated to contribute towards maintaining soil fertility. In lower rainfall areas (350-700 mm), there are little opportunities for producing green manure without competing with the main crop. Therefore alternative strategies need to be evolved. Some approaches tried at the Central Research Institute for Dry-land Agriculture (CRIDA), include bund farming where N-fixing trees and bushes are raised on either side of the field bunds and lopping applied on the soil. A post wet season cover crop (e.g., horse-gram, cow-pea) can be grown with the help of the off-season rain after the existing crop (before flowering) has been ploughed back into the soil (Katyal, et. al., 1994). Leguminous trees or shrubs can also be cultivated on marginal lands and lopping utilised in the nearby crop fields. Preliminary studies at CRIDA revealed that within two years, Leucaena leucocephala grown on 0.25 ha of land could meet the nitrogen requirements of about 0.67 ha of sorghum. A minimum of two cuttings can be obtained in one season for use in the crop field.
61. Composting of organic waste can substantially contribute towards maintaining and upgrading soil quality. Its quantity rises by several folds but the benefits remain the same or slightly better than FYM. The additional cost of composting it with FYM is negligible. It has been reported that termite infestation is greatly reduced when compost is used instead of FYM. The organic matter build-up from the latter provides resilience to withstand stress.
4.10 Alternative Land Use Systems
62. Data from several locations in India indicated that annual crops cultivated on land capability Class IV and above are prone to drought. The soils here are better suited for perennial grasses, legumes, and woody trees. Agro forestry, which includes silviculture, horticulture, hortipasture, and silvipasture, can be successful alternatives. Less arable land can consider adopting them and integrating livestock with crops to attain a viable production system.
63. Multi-location studies have identified several agro forestry systems for different rain-fed areas in India. In alley cropping, the perennial crop forms the hedgerows, which is grown mainly on contour lines and as an annual crop. Pruning from the tree crop can be used as fodder during drought years or applied in the cropped field as mulch cum manure. Although the tree crop competes with the annual crop for moisture and nutrients causing yields to decrease during dry years, fodder from the trees can be
310 used to support livestock. Moreover, by cutting the hedgerows, competition for nutrients can be minimised. More studies on geometry and distance between hedge and crop strips to lessen competition are required. Irrigated areas can practice horticulture and this gives significantly higher income than arable cropping. This type of farming is suitable for in areas with an annual rainfall of 750 mm and above. A number of fruit tree and crop combinations have been identified and the water management techniques standardised.
64. Silvipasture is ideal for rehabilitating marginal or degraded lands. A perennial tree crop such as Leucaena leucocephala is planted either with Cenchrus ciliaris or Stylosanthes hamata. Such pastures can support up to 6 sheep per hectare on a continuous basis without the need for any supplementary feed, while native pastures can support only 2 sheep per hectare.
65. Ley farming is another approach where a legume or a non-legume forage crop is rotated with food grain crops. This system improves soil quality besides providing fodder. In a 4-year study conducted at Hyderabad (annual rainfall 750 mm) on shallow Alfisol (depth <45 cm), raising Stylosanthes hamata in rotation with sorghum and castor improved the soil quality (organic carbon, total and available N) and increased the yield of sorghum (Table 5). Ley farming can be successfully practised yearly on a section of the holding. Stylo or grasses can be grown for 2-4 years followed by arable crops. With this cycle, the entire holding can be covered in 5 to 10 years depending on the farmer’s forage requirement and his farm size. This system can thus sustain the soil quality of the entire farm.
Table 5. Effect of Stylosanthes on Sorghum Yield and Soil Fertility, Alfisol in Hyderabad, India
Content before Year 4 Crop Rotation for Four Years* Sorghum Grain Yield Organic Nitrogen of Year 4 Carbon (kg/ha-1) Sorghum (per cent) (kg/ha-1) 1234 C S C S 0.22 110 1,802 C S SH S 0.31 113 2,549 S SH SH S 0.35 141 3,481 SH SH SH S 0.56 145 3,912 C F F S 0.15 88 1,032 CD (0.05) 789 Source: Korwar (1992). * C = Castor, S = Sorghum, SH = Stylosanthes hamata, F = Fallow.
311 66. In view of the long gestation period of tree crops, a number of bushes such as henna, curry leaf and annette have been evaluated at CRIDA and found to be remunerative both as pure crops and as intercrops with short-duration pulses (greengram and blackgram). Network research carried out in India revealed that alternative land use involving perennials (tree/crop, grass shrub or a combination of both) has advantages and can conserve natural resources and increase productivity. Some of the advantages of planting them are as follows:
a) Provide permanent vegetative cover to the soil or land surface and thus substantially control erosion caused by both runoff and wind, b) Improve the microclimate for crop growth, c) Provide good quality green fodder, which is in short supply to support livestock. Thus the integration of livestock farming with arable cropping is highly recommended, d) Protect the environment and upgrade soil quality through their deep root system, e) Enhance organic matter by recycling biomass into the soil, f) Reduce runoff, surface evaporation and weed growth and improve water use efficiency when lopping from the trees is spread on the soil surface for recycling, g) Provide fuel, timber, and minor forest products (e.g., gum) and thus lessen the farmers’ dependence on forest reserves, h) Supplement the diet of poor farm families by giving the necessary vitamins and minerals, and thus enhance their nutrition needs, i) Generate much needed cash when aromatic and industrial value plants are grown, j) Support the development of soil microbe, and k) Generate employment throughout the year for farmers (when the agro forestry system together with livestock husbandry and water harvesting are established), and thereby substantially increase their income level.
4.11 Research and Development Strategy
67. Strategic planning in the areas of on-farm research and participatory technology development for optimum farming systems is essential to achieve sustainable management of arid areas. On-farm programmes can fall into 3 categories Ð short-term (5 years), medium-term (10 years), and long-term (20 years). They can be integrated wherever possible on a watershed scale, or on the basis of a unit area and initiated in a phased manner. This will ensure not only the peoples’ involvement from the onset of the programme but also sustain it and extend it to other locations.
312 4.11.1 Short-term Measures
68. Such steps are meant to bring immediate benefits to farmers. An ideal approach would be to start from refining the local technology. It does not need much monetary input, but may lead to tangible benefits such as improved crop productivity. This would build the confidence of farmers in the programme and motivate them to adopt medium and long-term measures that require greater labor and financial inputs. Short-term solutions are such that farmers are able to adopt them at farm level (irrespective of farm size), with little or no help from external agencies. Drought tolerant varieties, inter-bund treatments (key-line and appropriate tillage), summer tillage, ploughing and planting across the slope, green lopping land cover cum manure treatment, vegetative barriers, ridge-furrow configurations for planting, opening of conservation (dead) furrows, etc. are some such examples. They are meant to create an impact within a short span of 2-5 years and act as “starters” or “stepping stones” for the longer-term task of managing water stress by creating sustainable water resources. Such development together with improved crop management can enhance crop yield under erratic and uncertain water supply conditions. In short, the core objective of short-term projects is to orientate farmers towards the adoption of low input practices and trigger their willingness to participate in further technology improvement.
4.11.2 Medium-term Measures
69. Once farmers realize the benefits of adopting new methods (through short-term measures), they can better understand the necessity of controlling aridity and participate in the implementation of medium and long-term measures. The former addresses the problems in a time frame of 5-10 years. Watershed based measures such as the regularization of runoff and storage in medium size reservoirs, renovation of existing tanks, and adoption of alternative land use systems fall into this category.
4.11.3 Long-term Measures
70. These have a time frame of 10-20 years. Besides building large-scale surface and groundwater resources, rehabilitation of wastelands should receive special attention to diffuse the pressure on existing arable land resources. The emphasis should be on creating alternative land use systems, e.g., the integration of silvipasture with livestock production as the main enterprise. Extremely degraded and rocky terrains can be utilized as catchments to generate surface water to serve adjoining areas. Such long-term measures can make wastelands productive.
71. Others include the construction of structures to regulate overland flow and reduce peak flow. They will also improve the relief, physiography, and drainage features of watersheds on a macro scale of 2,000-5,000 ha.
313 5. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
72. With a growing human and livestock population, the pressure on cultivated land in drought-prone rain-fed areas will undoubtedly increase in the foreseeable future. The constant rise in demand for food grains will in all probability force farmers to encroach on marginal lands and thus accentuate the problems of land degradation. Despite a slowing down in livestock numbers, the shrinking forage resource is likely to result in a huge demand-supply gap for both green and dry fodder due to the expanding area under food and crops. Although definite trends are not available, fears exist that the predicted change in climate may cause global temperatures to rise and thus accelerate the frequency and intensity of droughts. Consequently, deterioration in soil quality, and vulnerability to crop losses during dry seasons may become more pronounced. Further, to meet the projected demand for food and fodder, intensive land use is likely to occur in rain-fed areas in the years ahead. The ability to meet such predictions without further degrading the already fragile land will be a major challenge in the years ahead.
73. The scenario is complicated by projections on farm size in the coming two decades. It is estimated that its average in rain-fed areas in India will decrease by 100 per cent from the present level by the year 2020. Such tiny holdings will not only constrain partial mechanization, but may also limit the livelihood of the rural populace.
74. Rapid trade globalization is giving new dimensions to small-scale farming. Hence, focus has to be on products and their quality in which a country or a community has the competitive edge.
75. Strategies to combat drought should address food security both at the national and the farm level. Programmes and policies to overcome it should aim at improving the per unit area of production as well as the quality of produce and, at the same time, reduce production cost by adopting practices such as integrated pest management. Achieving sustainable production in unproductive areas brings about profitability, and the enhanced income will increase the purchasing power of their inhabitants and enable them to attain food security. In India, there is a reserve stock of 35 million tons of food grains in 2000-2001. But millions of people do not have access to this surplus due to poverty.
76. The following activities may merit consideration when formulating national action plans:
a) Characterize in detail the nature of droughts, their types and frequency based on past weather records, any strengths, and weaknesses, opportunities and/or dangers that emerge, and analyse the agro-ecological environment, b) List indigenous technical knowledge for drought management,
314 c) Study current farming systems and available technologies for drought mitigation and the extent of their adoption, and examine gaps in research and technology development, d) Identify agro-ecological sub-regions affected by droughts; prioritize problems and areas for allocation of resources, e) Implement grass root extension system, f) Develop consortia on drought management, g) Structure on-farm research and farmer participation in the technological development of farming systems, and h) Programme development with focus on short, medium, and long-term intervention, and examine policy issues.
5.1 Gaps in Research and Technology Development
77. The following areas require additional work:
● Prioritization of research issues in each agro-ecological land unit, ● Simulation models in GIS perspective, weather forecasts for EWS and DSS, ● Soil quality enhancement especially its organic matter, ● Agro-bio-diversity issues in drought management, and ● Farming systems, participatory technology development (PTD), and technology assessment and refinement (TAR) perspectives.
5.1.1 Grass Root Extension System
78. Despite advancements in agricultural research and education in several countries, which brought about impressive gains in productivity, a vast number of villages either lack modern technology or are inadequately covered by past and current development. The R&D-NGO-farmer linkage has succeeded in developing appropriate technology for rain-fed areas in India. But it is impossible to extend this technology to the entire country in the foreseeable future. Moreover, it will work only if the NGOs possess the desired level of technical competence and commitment. Such NGOs are few. Besides supporting the dedicated ones, another approach is for a village or a group of villages to be mobilised and function as a NGO. The Panchayat Raj Institution in India, can be organised to carry out this task. The self-help group (SHG) approach has proved successful and is now taking shape as a movement in many states in the country. User groups and village volunteers’ concepts are also being implemented with some success. These positive signals can be employed and consolidated to assist encourage the village Local Self-Governance System evolve into a community organization. This may eventually lead to a “save and nourish your own land for sustained productivity” model. Such an institution at the grass-root level can be supported by the country’s R&D programme.
315 5.2 Consortia Development
79. At present a multitude of government institutions, NGOs, and private sector/ corporate organisations are working towards improving agricultural productivity in drought-prone areas. Their efforts are handicapped for want of skilled manpower and exposure to the latest research technologies. It is therefore necessary to adopt a consortium approach to exchange knowledge and experience, with a view to solving the problems in the right perspective. Each agro-ecological region or sub-region must establish a consortium of its own to control land degradation and improve farm productivity. The research organisation in the region may be the focal point of activity.
5.3 Structure for On-farm Program
80. On-farm research and technology development should be structured to carry out short, medium and long-term projections in an organised manner. Gradual capacity building of farmers should form the basis of all such efforts.
81. Based on available research information, participatory technology development can be carried out efficiently at one or two sites of each agro-ecological unit. As problems in rain-fed areas are location specific, the smallest unit of agro-ecological classification should be taken for this activity. The next step would be to initiate Technology Assessment Refinement (TAR) projects at a number of locations to develop appropriate and acceptable modules of technology, taking into consideration the location specific problems and micro-farming situations. These efforts can then lead to pilot projects on watershed development and management.
5.3.1 Policy Framework
82. Issues relating to policies to fight droughts are being highlighted for redressal at various national and international forums from time to time. Rural infrastructure (roads, inputs and credit supply and markets, etc.) is the underlying issue that must be tackled at the national level.
83. Droughts have been disastrous in the past in many countries and their intensity may grow in future. Hence, a major shift has to take place to wrestle with the problem from the grass-root level in a holistic and integrated manner and utilising the best combination of resources, implementation approaches, institutions, and technologies, and with the fullest involvement of farmers and other stakeholders. This paper attempts to provide some leads to meet the challenges that are being handled by LIFDCs at various levels.
316 REFERENCES
1. Allan, R. and Heathcote, R.L. 1987. The 1982-83 Drought in Australia. In: Climatic Crisis: The Societal Impacts Associated with 1982-83 Worldwide Climatic Anomalies. UNEP. Nairobi, pp. 19-23. 2. CRIDA. 1986. Annual Report. All India Co-ordinated Research Project for Dryland Agriculture. Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture. Hyderabad. 3. IRRI. 1991. Proceedings of the Rainfed Lowland Rice Farming Systems Research Planning Meeting. Manila. 4. Anonymous. 1994a. Report of the Technical Committee on Drought Prone Areas Program and Desert Development. Ministry of Rural Development. New Delhi. 5. Anonymous. 1994b. Annual Report. Food and Fertilizer Technology Centre for the Asian and Pacific Region. Taipei. 6. ADB. 1996. Asian Development Bank Annual Report. Manila. 7. Devendra, G. and Yokohama, S. 1999. Farming Systems Research in Nepal: Current Status and Future Agenda. National Research Institute of Agricultural Economics. Tokyo. 8. Gupta, J.P. and Muthana, K.D. 1985. Effect of Integrated Moisture Conservation Technology on the Early Growth and Establishment of Acacia tortilis in the Indian Desert. Indian Forester 111(4):477-485. 9. Hegde, B.R. and Gajanan, G.N. 1996. Nitrogen Management in Dry-land Agriculture. In: Nitrogen Research and Crop Production (ed. H.L.S. Tandon), Fertilizer Development Corporation. New Delhi. 10. Houghton, J.T., Jenkins, G.I. and Ephraums, J.J. 1990. Climate Change. The IPCC Scientific Assessment. WMO/UNEP. Cambridge. 11. Isamu Kayane. 1971. Hydrological Regions in Monsoon Asia. In: Water Balance of Monsoon Asia: A Climatological Approach (ed. M.M. Yoshino), University of Tokyo Press. Tokyo, pp. 287-300. 12. Jaiswal, N.K. and Kolte, N.V. 1981. Development of Drought Prone Areas. National Institute of Rural Development. Hyderabad. 13. Jayaseelan, A.T., Suresh Babu, A.V., Chandrasekhar, K. and Rupen Kumar, G.V. 2001. IRS/WIFS Data Use for 1999 Droughts in Rayalaseema Districts of Andhra Pradesh, India. In: Remote Sensing and Geographical Information Systems (ed. I.V. Muralikrishna), B.S. Publications. Hyderabad, pp. 61-66. 14. Katyal, J.C., Venkateswarlu, B. and Mahipal. 1994. On-farm Generation of Organic Matter Ð a New Strategy of Raising Herbaceous Legumes using Off-season Rainfall. Rain-fed Agriculture Newsletter 4(1):6-7. 15. Kawan Nawa. 2001. Drought Monitoring in Zambia using METEOSAT and NOVA AVHRR Data. In: Remote Sensing and Geographical Information Systems (ed. I.V. Muralikrishna), B.S. Publications. Hyderabad, pp. 1-5.
317 16. Korwar, G.R. 1992. Alternate Land Use Systems. In: Dry-land Agriculture in India Ð State of Agricultural Research in India (Eds. L.L. Somani, K.P.R. Vittal and B. Venkateswarlu), Scientific Publishers. Jodhpur, pp. 143-168. 17. Krishnamurthy, T.N. and Surgi, N. 1987. Observational Aspects of Summer Monsoon: In: Monsoon Meteorology (eds. C.P. Chang and T.N. Krishnamurthy), Oxford University Press, New York, pp. 1-25. 18. Kulshrestha, S.M. 1997. Drought Management in India and Potential Contribution of Climate Prediction. Joint COLA/CARE Technical Report No. 1. Institute of Global Environment and Society. Calverton. 19. Oliver, J.E. and Fairbridge, R.W. 1987. The Encyclopedia of Climatology. Van Nostrand Reinhold. New York. 20. Pandey, S., Singh, H.N. and Villano, R. 1999. Rainfed Rice and Risk Coping Strategies: Some Micro Economic Evidences from Eastern India. Annual Meeting of the American Agricultural Economics Association. Nashville. 21. Pandey, S., Behura, D., Villano, R. and Naik, D. 2000. Economic Cost of Drought and Farmer’s Coping Mechanism: A Study of Rain-fed Rice Systems in Eastern India. Discussion Paper Series No. 39. IRRI. Manila. 22. Prasetyo, T., Setiani, C. and Kartaatmadja, S. 2000. Soil Conservation Technology and Farming System at Upper Watersheds in Indonesia. National Research Institute of Agricultural Economics. Tokyo. 23. Pretty, J.N. 1995. Participatory Learning for Sustainable Agriculture. World Development 23(8):1247-1263. 24. Purohit, M.L. 1993. Socio-economic Aspects of Drought and Desertification. In: Desertification in Thar, Sahara and Sahel Regions. Scientific Publishers. Jodhpur, pp. 205-218. 25. Ramakrishna, Y.S. and Rao, A.S. 1991. Incidence and Severity of Droughts in the Indian Arid Zone and their Impact on Productivity from Agricultural and Pasture Lands. Indo-Soviet ILTP Meeting on Ecology of Arid Zones and Control of Desertification. Central Arid Zone Research Institute. Jodhpur. 26. Raman, K.V. and Balagur, T. (eds). 1992. Farming Systems Research in India: Strategies for Implementation. National Academy of Agricultural Research Management. Hyderabad. 27. Sharma, K.D. 1986. Runoff Behaviour of Water Harvesting Micro-catchments. Agricultural Water Management 11(2):137-144. 28. Sharma, K.D. 2000. Rainwater Harvesting and Recycling. In: Water Conservation, 59-86. Technomic Publishing. Lancaster. 29. Sharma, K.D., Pareek, O.P. and Singh, H.P. 1986. Micro-catchment Water Harvesting for Raising Jujube Orchards in an Arid Climate. Transactions of the American Society of Agricultural Engineers 29(1):112-118. 30. Singh, H.P. 1973. Soils of the Western Rajasthan and the Problems of their Low Moisture Storage Capacity. In: Winter School on Development of Rajasthan Desert. Central Arid Zone Research Institute. Jodhpur.
318 31. Singh, H.P. 1978. On Increasing the Moisture Storage in Sandy Soils. Proceedings of the Indian National Science Academy 44(4):187-190. 32. Singh, H.P. 1997. Role of Farm Research and Farming Systems Perspective in Sustainable Development of Thar Desert. In: Desertification and Control in the Arid-Ecosystem of India for Sustainable Development (Eds. S. Singh and A. Kar), Agro-Botanical Publishers. New Delhi. pp. 380-386. 33. Singh, H.P. 1998. Management of Rainfed Areas. In: Fifty Years of Natural Resources Management Research (Eds. G.B. Singh and B.R. Sharma). Indian Council of Agricultural Research. New Delhi, pp. 539-578. 34. Singh, H.P., Sharma, K.L., Venkateswarlu, B. and Neelaveni, K. 1998. Prospects of Indian Agriculture with Special Reference to Nutrient Management under Rainfed Ecosystems. In: National Workshop on Long Term Soil Fertility through Integrated Plant Nutrient Supply System. Indian Institute of Soil Science. Bhopal. 35. Singh, H.P., Sharma, K.L., Venkateswarlu, B. and Neelaveni, K. 1999. Fertilizer Use in Rainfed Areas: Problems and Potentials. Fertilizer News 44(1):27-38. 36. Singh, V.P. and Singh, R.K. (eds). 2000. Rain-fed Rice: A Sourcebook of Best Practices and Strategies in Eastern India. IRRI. Manila, pp. 292. 37. Steyaert, L.T., Rao, A.V. and Todorov, A.V. 1981. Agroclimatic Assessment Methods for Drought/Food Strategies in South and Southeast Asia. Agency for International Development. Washington D.C. 38. Vangani, N.S., Sharma, K.D. and Chatterji, P.C. 1988. Tanka Ð A Reliable System of Rainwater Harvesting in the Indian Desert. Central Arid Zone Research Institute. Jodhpur. 39. Venkateswarlu, B. and Wani, S.P. 1999. Bio-fertilizers: An Important Component of Integrated Plant Nutrient Supply in Drylands. In: Fifty Years of Dryland Agricultural Research in India (Eds. H.P. Singh, Y.S. Ramakrishna, K.L. Sharma and B. Venkateswarlu). Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture. Hyderabad, pp. 379-394. 40. Venkateswarlu, J. 1981. Maximization of Crop Production in Dryland. Indian Journal of Soil Conservation 9(1):124-140. 41. Venkateswarlu, J. 1997. Sustainable Crop Production. In: Symposium on Recent Advances in Management of Arid Ecosystems. Arid Zone Research Association of India. Jodhpur. 42. Victor, U.S., Srivastava, N.N. and Ramana Rao, B.V. 1991. Moisture Regime, Aridity and Droughts in the Arid Region of Andhra Pradesh. Annals of Arid Zone 30(2):81-91.
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(320 blank) Annex XV APDC/01/11
DEVELOPING FARMING SYSTEMS AND BEST PRACTICES FOR FLOOD-PRONE AREAS*
ABSTRACT
In South and South East Asia and the Pacific, it is estimated that an area of more than 13 million hectares of agricultural land are prone to floods. These occur mainly in Bangladesh, India, Burma, Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia and are caused primarily by an accumulation of rainwater, river discharge to basins forming deepwater bodies, and tidal movements. The Ganges, Brahmaputra, Irrawady, Chao Phraya and Mekong rivers are responsible for the major floods of Asia. Their depth and duration determine the kind of traditional deepwater and/or modern varieties of rice (the pre-dominant crop) and the range of other crops that are being grown. Over the years, people in and around flood-prone areas have developed a unique way of life and adopted a complex farming system involving crops, livestock and fisheries that can accommodate this natural disaster. Comparatively recent innovations with water control structures and the application of research-based technologies have led to significant advancements in farming systems, and consequently, the livelihood patterns of people inhabiting such areas. They have created a favorable environment mainly for rice cultivation. The use of high-yielding varieties and modern agricultural practices have improved food security, created additional employment opportunities and uplifted the socio-economic conditions of the rural population. However, the rate of progress has not been as substantial as in non flood-prone areas. Unfortunately, some of the new technologies had a negative impact on the environment and on those who adopted them. They are responsible for a reduction in fishing and livestock production and adversely affecting dietary habits and living standards.
Despite some disadvantages, this paper postulates that improvements in the farming systems of flood-prone regions are of vital importance, as large populations in such terrain are dependent on agriculture for their survival. It is not possible for man-made structures to eliminate floods, they can only assist in controlling them. Therefore, engineering and agronomic measures together with the farmers’ indigenous knowledge are needed to bring about progress. A participatory systems approach that encompasses crops, livestock and fisheries is an essential pre-requisite to sustainable and environment friendly development.
* Prepared by Mohammed Abdur Razzaque, National Coordinator, Farming Systems Research and Development Programme, Bangladesh; and Mohammed Zainul Abedin, Abedin International Inc., Canada. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors’ and not necessarily those of FAO.
321 CONTENTS
Page 1. INTRODUCTION ...... 323 1.1 Why, When and How Floods Occurs ...... 323
2. NATURE OF FLOODS AND FARMING SYSTEMS...... 325 2.1 Flood Prone Cropping Patterns in Cambodia ...... 327 2.2 Flood Prone Cropping Patterns in Vietnam ...... 327 2.3 Flood Prone Cropping Patterns in India ...... 328 2.4 Flood Prone Cropping Patterns in Bangladesh ...... 328 2.4.1 Changes in Livelihood Systems in Flood-Prone Areas of Bangladesh ...... 331
3. COPING WITH A FLOOD PRONE ENVIRONMENT ...... 332
4. CONSTRAINTS TO ADOPTION OF FARMING SYSTEMS ...... 334 4.1 Physical Factors ...... 334 4.2 Non-Availability of Improved Plant Type ...... 334
5. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ...... 335
REFERENCES ...... 336
322 1. INTRODUCTION
1. Flood is part and parcel of living for a large number of people in Asia and the Pacific. It is a regular phenomenon particularly in such countries as Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand, India, Vietnam and Cambodia, where the loss of human lives, natural resources, crops and livestock have at times destroyed the financial backbone of farmers. There are about 31 million hectares of flood-prone areas in South and South East Asia, of which 13 million are used for agriculture, mainly for the planting of some form of deepwater rice (Singh, et. al. 2001).
2. Flood is defined as the inundation of the land surface and it is caused by seasonal accumulation of rainwater, river discharge or tidal phenomenon. Flash floods also occur because of unexpected rainfall, excessive river flow, cyclonic storms and tidal surge. Many parts of Asia and the Pacific are prone to them. They take place without prior warning but last no more than 10 days, and can be due to a number of factors such as unexpected high rainfall, tidal movement, and breaches in flood control structures. Huke and Huke (1997) classify areas as flood-prone when they are under more than one meter in water. Amin and Iqbal (1993) group floods in Bangladesh into three general categories:
(a) normal ones which regularly inundate about 20 to 30 per cent of the country and where loss to crops or livestock is minimal, (b) medium ones which inundate about 30 to 40 per cent of the country usually every few years and cause limited damage, and (c) great ones that may inundate more than 40 per cent of the country and bring about immense destruction.
3. People have, despite such adversity, developed unique farming systems that are able to generate food, feed and employment opportunities. They have devised mechanisms capable of coping with floods that recur regularly in low-lying areas. Governments have also adopted large-scale measures to control them so that such land can be made suitable for risk-free agriculture and other economic activities.
4. This paper attempts to describe the nature and causes of floods in some of the countries in Asia and the Pacific. However, it focuses more on Bangladesh, the country most vulnerable to this natural calamity in Asia.1
1.1 Why, When and How Floods Occurs
5. Floods are caused by an accumulation of rainwater or when the groundwater table is raised due to drainage congestion in rivers. Monsoon rain in watersheds also
1 The recommendations contained in it do not necessarily reflect those of organizations that the authors work for.
323 causes rivers to rise uncontrollably and when they reach the flat topography of the flood plains and deltas, their flow rate, which is dependent on gradient, slows down considerably. Spills of turbid and silt water over their banks begin to inundate the terrain. Usually, rainfall is also high and the clogged rivers prevent most of it from draining away. Thus a large part of the local precipitation accumulates on the land and causes clear-water flooding. Tides are also another contributing factor. A high and low tide occur daily and they may have widespread effect on the environment. Cyclonic storms bring flash floods to coastal areas, particularly in India, Bangladesh and the Philippines. It is believed that rising sea levels due to global warming may place large parts of Bangladesh and Maldives under water.
6. In most Asia countries, inundation takes place from June to October each year, with the maximum depth occurring from August to October (Table 1). The waters from Asia’s great rivers, namely, the Ganges, Bhamaputra, Mekong and Irrawaddy, originate from melting snow and glaciers in the interior of the continent, starting in March and continuing to October. In the case of the smaller ones such as the Chao Phraya and the Red Rivers and those from lower altitudes, they are from rain in the catchment areas.
Table 1. Flood Prone Ecosystem in Asia
Flooding Depth Flooding Depth Total Flood-Prone Country (30 to 1 M) > 1.0 M (Per cent of Rice Area) 1978-80 Mid 1990s 1978-80 Mid 1990s 1978-80 Mid 1990s Bangladesh 25.8 26.9 11.1 11.4 36.9 38.3 Cambodia 44.3 18.4 7.1 8.0 51.4 26.4 India 11.5 10.5 6.2 3.3 17.7 13.7 Thailand 11.5 18.4 4.6 3.5 16.1 21.9 Vietnam 17.6 10.2 7.6 2.8 25.2 13.0 Asia 9.6 9.2 2.9 2.8 13.5 12.0 Source: Huke, R.E. and Huke, E.H. 1997.
7. The mean duration of the total flooding period is 140 days in Bangladesh and 120 days in Thailand. Flooding exceeded the 0.5 meter and 1.0 meter thresholds for 120 and 100 days, respectively, in Bangladesh. The corresponding duration was 100 and 40 days in Thailand, but it was considerably shorter in West Bengal.
8. In Bangladesh, surface contour determines the extent of flooding in an area. The floodplains of the Ganges, Brahmaputra, Tista, Surma, Kushiara and other rivers and tributaries occupy about 70 per cent of the country. In most years, 30 per cent of Bangladesh’s cultivated area is covered with more than one meter in water, and 5 million hectares are inundated from 0.3 meter to more than 3.0 meter. Monsoon rains in the watersheds cause the rivers to swell up uncontrollably.
324 9. Vietnam and Cambodia share a severely flooded Mekong river basin. Its system includes the Great Lake that acts as a buffer reservoir during extremely high and low flows of the Mekong River, and it contains one of the world’s richest freshwater fishing grounds. Pre-monsoon rainfall and flooding patterns are more erratic in Cambodia than in the Vietnamese part of the delta. North Vietnam’s Red River has perhaps the oldest embankments, where large-scale deepwater rice planting was practiced as far back as the eleventh century (Sakurai, 1980). Although there is now an extensive system of dikes and polders to control the water level, the pumping system is unable to handle periodic depressions and typhoons that bring exceptionally heavy rainfall.
10. The major flood prone areas in India are located in the east, namely, in eastern Uttar Pradeh, West Bengal and Orissa (Singh, et. al. 2001). There are approximately 2.30 million hectares of such land in the Ganges-Bramaputra basin. Despite efforts made to control floods, evidence exists to indicate that their frequency is increasing. Those in Bangladesh and India are caused by deforestation of the Himalayan foothills in Nepal, and this is responsible for erosion and excessive silting of riverbeds and erratic rainfall patterns. The rural network of roads in Bangladesh also prevents proper drainage and this leads to frequent occurrence of local flooding.
11. Although people in such areas have developed farming systems that adjust to the timing and duration of floods, their unpredictability can cause immense loss to crops, livestock, fisheries and other properties. Efforts to control them have often failed to produce the desired results. Sometimes, they have disturbed the way of life of the rural folk and further aggravated malnutrition and poverty levels in certain cases. This proves that flood mitigation steps to be developed, must take into account the farmers’ traditional wisdom and farming methods developed by them to cope up with floods.
2. NATURE OF FLOODS AND FARMING SYSTEMS
12. Deepwater rice is sometimes planted on the margins of large depressions or bils in Bangladesh and eastern India, where flooding is experienced up to nine or ten months of the year. Its duration is a month or two less in most regions where traditional tall cultivars are grown, and in transitional areas where the floodwater is not expected to rise above 0.5 meter for more than one to two months.
13. The Chao Phraya delta in Thailand has probably the most sophisticated water control system in the region. It comprises a network of canals, dikes, channels and large storage dams built over the last hundred years. It has the advantage of adequate gradient to distribute fresh water by gravity from its headwork located near Chainat. The system also includes large-scale irrigation and hydroelectric power generation at several large upstream reservoirs and protective dikes around Bangkok. Early and late season water levels are usually well controlled and they benefit rice farmers considerably.
325 14. The Mekong and Irrawaddy deltas were sparsely populated, inaccessible and unhealthy a hundred years ago, and in both of them the first canals were dug primarily to improve transportation. The gentle slope of the former makes flood protection very difficult. Water distribution is not possible by gravity alone, and during the dry season, the tidal effect is felt as far up the river as Phnom Penh situated nearly 200 km from the sea. Flood control measures in the Cambodian lowlands are less developed and most of the shallow canals were built with great suffering and loss of life during the Khmer Rouge period. There are no storage dams on the Mekong itself and those on its tributaries have little effect on river flow during the monsoon season. However, feasibility studies carried out on the construction of a series of massive storage dams, called the ‘Mekong Cascade’, show that a potential exists for more effective flood control, increased irrigation capacity and the generation of hydroelectric power (Mekong Committee, 1988).
15. Attempts to control floods in the Ganges-Brahmaputra basin have been largely unsuccessful, despite the erection of several thousand kilometers of embankments, drainage canals and protective earthworks on the two main rivers and their major tributaries. Since the fourteenth century, water has been diverted from the upper Ganges to irrigate the fertile Ganges-Yamuna doab (Stone, 1984), and there is now a barrage across the river at Farakka near the Bangladesh border. However, violent discharges of the Himalayan streams continue to cause extensive crop damage and loss of life. The Kosi River of north Bihar is the worst hit. No attempt has, so far, been made to curb the flow of the Brahmaputra by dam or barrage, and as a consequence, it has brought disastrous floods to the Assam Valley and Bangladesh in 1987, 1988 and 1998.
16. In 1870, most of the Mekong delta was a vast inaccessible forest swamp that was sparsely populated by pioneer farmers who planted rice and fished in its abundant waters. However, since the last decade, considerable development has taken place along some of the main river branches in the Vietnamese delta. Fresh water pumped from an irrigation-drainage system directly on to the land and low embankments to delay flooding, is extending the cropping season and making double cropping possible (Mekong Committee, 1988).
17. Fishing is second only to rice culture in the Mekong delta and floodplains. (Pantula, 1986b). It directly or indirectly involves 25 per cent of the population and supplies 40 to 60 per cent of the animal protein. In 1973, the annual fish production of the Lower Mekong basin was estimated at about 0.5 million tons (Mekong Committee, 1988). Although its fish fauna is very rich, only about 10 species are well known to fishermen.
18. In Cambodia, no detailed hydrological records on flooding of farmers’ fields are kept. A vast area below Kratie, around the Great Lake and on the plains of the Tonle Sap and Mekong River and its tributaries, floods every year. Compared with Vietnam, the occurrence here is earlier and more severe, and the cultivation of floating rice is more risky because of rapid inundation.
326 2.1 Flood Prone Cropping Patterns in Cambodia
19. There is no recent account of this in Cambodia. It appears that most deepwater rice lands presently practice mono cropping. In the southern Cambodian delta, some farmers plant deepwater rice in the back swamps and grow a partially irrigated rice crop on higher land, i.e., on the slopes of levees (Fujisaka, 1988). In Kandal province, farmers combine crops such as maize with deepwater rice, while some plant sesame and mung bean in rotation with floating rice, and in Prey Veng, attempts are made to replace the standard floating rice fallow pattern with two short-duration modern rice varieties, as in the case of Vietnam (Puckridge, 1988).
2.2 Flood Prone Cropping Patterns in Vietnam
20. Here, severely flooded areas have undergone dramatic changes over the last 20 years. Broadcast deepwater rice is the dominant crop in the Trans Bassac Horst region that usually floods less than one meter. Three factors are responsible for recent innovations in their cropping patterns, namely:
(a) the introduction and adoption of modern rice cultivars, (b) the digging of new canals to carry fresh water for irrigation, and (c) the proliferation of low lift sampan pumps.
21. The following cropping patterns are practiced in the flood prone areas of Vietnam;
(a) rice-rice-fallow, (b) broadcast floating rice (traditional mono cropping), (c) broadcast floating rice Ð soybean + maize, and (d) transplanted floating rice with pre-flood kenaf.
22. In the early eighties, the provinces of An Giang, Dony Thap and Northern Hau Giang in the Vietnamese delta have integrated the planting of deepwater rice with upland crops. The latter include sesame, mung bean and soybean and are planted with zero tillage on non-acidic and moderately acidic soils, immediately after the harvesting of floating rice, using stubble as mulch. Several such crops together with maize and cowpea are mixed with floating rice in the pre-flood period. Many radical changes including the replacement of deepwater rice (monocrop) by two modern varieties has taken place in An Giang, Dong Thap, Long An and Kien Giang provinces. In deeply flooded regions, the double-cropped area extends to both sides of the main canals for a distance of about 5 km. However, traditional mono cropping of floating rice persists along the river.
23. Multiple cropping has clearly made an impact on the income of farmers in these deepwater regions. Compared with a single, floating rice crop, double cropping with modern cultivars gives three to seven times higher net return, followed by maize (2 to 3 times higher) and sesame (2.0 to 2.7 times higher) (Huynh, 1989).
327 24. In Dong Thap province, fish production declined to one-tenth of its previous level when floating rice was replaced by two irrigated modern varieties (Puckridge, 1988). This is probably due to the removal of natural fish habitants and the effects of fertilizers and pesticides. To compensate for this loss, there is a move to build ponds to rear fish.
25. In the Red River basin of northern Vietnam, deepwater rice was introduced as |a wet season crop. Early flooding sometimes destroys the newly transplanted crop and in very wet years, it may have to be replanted several times. This results in very low yields or complete crop failure (Kanter, 1981b). Submergence tolerance remains a useful trait for new cultivars developed for these areas.
2.3 Flood Prone Cropping Patterns in India
26. Deepwater rice is a predominant crop in the flood prone areas of India. There is little genetic erosion in such terrain in eastern India because of the release of only a few high yielding varieties for planting (Singh, et. al. 2000). The rate of replacement with new ones is slow due to poor seed distribution and farmers’ preference for specific traits. This is the case in the rain-fed lowlands and more so in deepwater areas. However, in more favorable sections of the latter, modern varieties have started to make an impact. Farmers only adopt them in carefully chosen fields that can provide a good harvest and they also manage the crop better. They have as yet to make inroads in flood prone deepwater terrain. In these areas boro-season rice gives a higher yield and more profit to farmers ( Thakur and Singh, 2000).
2.4 Flood Prone Cropping Patterns in Bangladesh
27. In Bangladesh, land is classified according to flood depth; highland (above flood level), medium highland-1 (up to 0.30 m in water), medium highland-2 (up to 0.90 m in water), medium lowland (up to 1.80 m in water), lowland (up to 3.00 m in water) and low lowland (more than 3.00 m in water) (FAO/YBDP, 1998). About 1.01 million hectares of flood prone land in the country practices the following seven cropping systems; (i) fallow-T. aus-T. aman, (ii) fallow-B. aus-T. aman, (iii) fallow-T. aman, (iv) fallow-DW aman, (v) fallow-B. aus+B. aman, (vi) boro-fallow-T. aman, and (vii) boro-fallow-fallow where opportunities exist to cultivate non-rice crops during the rabi season.
28. It is possible to increase the planting area, but market demand and price should be considered when making recommendations for such an environment. Research conducted by the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI) proved that it is feasible to cultivate non-rice crops in the short fallow period (of about 70 days), after the T. aman harvest and before boro rice transplanting in the boro-fallow-T. aman system (Elahi, et. al. 1999). Potential crops identified for planting during this period are potato, legume vegetables, and mustard. Approximately 0.17 million hectares of land left fallow for 70 days in the boro-fallow-T. aman system can thus be planted with a non-rice crop.
328 29. In flood prone areas, farmers practice various farming systems that include wheat, potato, mustard and other rabi crops in their farms. The yield is low. However, it is higher at research stations where up-to-date management practices are followed. The application of modern technologies at farm level would undoubtedly increase productivity to a greater extent (Table 2).
Table 2. Changes in Cropping Systems in Bangladesh and Yields
Per cent of Land Yield Rate (kg/ha) Under Crop Crop Per cent 1987-88 1999-2000 1987-88 1999-2000 Change Rice: 127.7 110.0 2,164 3,589 66 Aus TV 30.9 7.3 1,220 1,415 16 B. Aman TV 67.6 45.4 1,618 1,742 8 T. Aman 1.7 5.3 2,605 3,914 50 Boro 27.5 52.0 4,541 5,386 19 Other crops: 45.9 32.5 Ð Ð Ð Jute 7.1 4.3 1,801 1,892 5 Wheat 6.4 4.8 1,734 2,121 22 Pulses 15.0 9.4 892 852 -4 Oilseeds 6.8 2.9 992 862 -13 Potato 4.3 2.6 10,578 26,741 153 Vegetable 5.4 6.2 6,352 11,621 86 Others Ð Ð Ð Ð Cropping Intensity 173.6 142.5 Ð Ð Ð ÐÐ Ð Sugarcane Ð Ð Ð
30. In 1987/88, traditional low-yielding deepwater broadcast aman rice was the major crop in flood prone areas and it occupied nearly two-thirds of the rice land, followed by traditional aus rice that was grown as a mixed crop with the former. Rice planted in similar regions during the dry season is called “boro”. Modern varieties gave almost 2.8 times higher yield than aman. With the rapid expansion of irrigation facilities, boro increased to 52 per cent of the cultivated land by 1999-2000. As the area under it grew, the land allocated for most dry season crops, particularly pulses and oilseeds declined substantially (Hossain, et. al. 2001). A major cropping pattern in flood prone areas was mixed aus aman relayed with pulses or oilseeds or a double-cropped aus-aman (Table 3). These have almost disappeared in favor of the single cropped boro.
31. Inundated lands cover about 4.9 million hectares, of which, an estimated 4.5 million hectares are cropped (Elahi and Khan, 2001). In such terrain, no other
329 Table 3. Changes in Cropping Pattern
(Per cent of Cultivated Land) Cropping Pattern 1987-88 1999-2000 Aman-Fallow 19.1 17.2 Aus-Aman 14.5 3.2 Aus-Aman-Non-rice 13.9 1.1 Aman-Non-rice 13.0 11.7 Boro-Fallow 12.6 29.0 Aman-MV Boro 7.7 18.7 Non-rice-Fallow 4.8 10.0 Others 14.4 9.3 non-rice crop except jute can be grown during mid-April to mid-October (kharif season). Various flood control measures implemented in Bangladesh have brought positive results. They have, in many places, created a favorable environment for agriculture, particularly for the cultivation of dry season rice and other crops. Large acreages, previously devoted to a single, deepwater winter crop such as Lathyrus, field pea, and local varieties of boro or left fallow, are now cropped with high yielding varieties (HYV) of winter rice and other suitable crops. This has produced a tremendous impact on self-sufficiency in cereals and also on the rural economy by creating new employment and agro-business opportunities in Bangladesh.
32. Although the availability of land for agriculture has been declining, its productivity has increased due to the rapid expansion of irrigation facilities and the adoption of modern rice varieties during the dry season. The area under local varieties, on the other hand, has declined substantially over time, as farmers grow the former during the dry season and leave the land fallow during the wet season. Nearly 46 per cent of the land was under this system in 1999-2000, and this has reduced cropping intensity.
33. A major change in livelihood as a result of these farming innovations is the declining dependence of poor households on the agricultural labor market. The number of agricultural workers has almost halved over the 1988-2000 period, due to rising employment opportunities in the non-farm rural sector. This has resulted in a rapid adoption of agricultural mechanization in land preparation and a higher incidence of tenancy.
34. Although the yield increase for individual crops has been moderate, that for rice has been substantial because of the switch from planting low-yielding aus and deepwater aman to high yielding boro. Such productivity growth has, however, not been translated into higher farm incomes because of the much slower rise in paddy prices compared to those for workers and fertilizer. The nominal wage rate is almost at par with the consumer price index, but because of the sluggish increase in the
330 nominal price of paddy, the entitlement of staple food for land-poor households has improved markedly.
35. Rice, however, constitutes a tiny share of household income because of the very small size of farms and the unfavorable price of the commodity. Per capita income rose by 3 to 4 per cent per year due largely to rapidly expanding incomes from non-agricultural sources such as trade and business, transport operations, services and remittance from abroad. The transformation from a farm to a non-farm rural economy has been facilitated by improvements in human capital and the development of rural infrastructure, particularly roads. The rapid advancement of the non-agricultural sector has alleviated overall poverty, although in absolute terms, its level remains very high. The improvement is more pronounced for households who derive their incomes from services and trade and only marginal for farmers and day laborers.
2.4.1 Changes in Livelihood Systems in Flood-Prone Areas of Bangladesh
36. In 1987-88, more than 60 per cent of the population was dependent on agriculture; 36 per cent working on their own farms and 24 per cent as paid labor in other farms. Very few were engaged in fishing or livestock production as their principal occupation. This dependence has however dropped to a large extent over the period, as rural off-farm activities grew in importance. In 1995, 51 per cent of workers were employed in the non-agricultural sector, i.e., in various salaried and personal services, petty trading, shop keeping, business, agro-processing, transport operation and road and house construction. The number of farmers remained almost the same, but that of agricultural wage laborers had declined noticeably from 24 per cent in 1988 to 13 per cent in 2000 (Table 4). It indicates that the migration from rural to urban centers is most pronounced among land-poor groups who were initially employed as agricultural wage laborers, but have increasingly sought work in the service and trading sectors.
Table 4. Distribution of Working Members by Occupation (Per cent)
Primary & Secondary Primary Occupation Occupation Occupation 1988 2000 1988 2000 Agriculture: 61.3 49.0 87.5 67.8 Cultivation 45.7 34.9 52.9 44.3 Agriculture labor 23.9 12.6 30.9 20.0 Other agriculture 1.7 1.5 3.7 3.2 Non-Agriculture 38.7 51.0 51.6 63.2 Trade & business 10.5 14.4 16.0 18.2 Service 19.9 23.0 22.5 24.8 Other non-agriculture 8.3 13.6 13.1 20.1 Total 100.0 100.0 139.1 130.9
331 The mobility of the labor force out of agriculture was facilitated by improvements in rural roads and human capital, and technological progress in rice cultivation that generated employment opportunities in trade, transport and marketing of agricultural inputs and the disposal of marketable surplus. As a result, labor scarcity is emerging and it caused a greater use of piece-rated contracts for conducting specific agricultural operations (transplanting, weeding and harvesting). This change had a positive impact on daily wage earnings.
37. Progress in rice technology can only make a limited contribution towards increasing household income. The role of research to enhance rice production should focus on increasing supplies and reducing its unit production cost so that its price can be maintained at affordable levels for both the rural and urban poor. Since a large proportion of land in flood-prone countries remains single cropped, options to introduce double cropping should be explored by developing shorter duration and cold tolerant aman and boro varieties.
38. Flood control structures have, on the other hand, disturbed traditional farming systems (Sultana, et. al. 1997; Hoggarth, et. al. 1999; De Graff, 1999) that produce pulses and oil-seeds and provide open access grazing for livestock. They have thus a negative effect on soil properties (Alexander, 1998). Traditional flood-prone, low-lying areas that housed milk-sheds, were sources of open water fishery, and give employment to fishermen and milk processors were replaced by rice and other high value crops. Grazing areas and those that grew lathyrus as a major forage and pulse crop were also taken over. This has greatly reduced the cattle population and availability of milk and cow dung, a traditional source of organic manure and fuel in Bangladesh. Flood-control structures and the use of chemicals in rice cultivation have also significantly reduced fish availability.
3. COPING WITH A FLOOD PRONE ENVIRONMENT
39. The indigenous population has, over time, developed unique farming systems and other mechanisms to accommodate floods. In fact, farmers often do not perceive themselves as suffering from their occurrence, and annual inundation to a certain depth has became part and parcel of daily living. Houses are built on elevated land, crops and cropping systems are adjusted and transportation fits in with the flooding pattern. Culture and agriculture are subjected to the dictates of floods and the human demand for food.
40. Basically, two strategic options exist to improve the productivity of areas that enjoy flood protection (Brammer, 1988). One, is the engineering approach where embankments, dykes, sluices, etc. are erected, and the other is agronomic in nature and involves the introduction of new farming systems such as high yielding varieties that would mature and be harvested prior to the onset of floods. Another would be to combine the two and this would give a wider choice to farmers.
332 41. Post-monsoon drainage is the most critical factor governing crop productivity in the northeast region of Bangladesh. Relatively short duration high yielding rice varieties (such as BRRI Dhan 28 and BRRI Dhan 36) are currently available to farmers. If excess water can be drained out by January each year, transplanting with 60-day old seedlings can be completed. Thus, a 140-150 day rice crop yielding 5-7 tons per hectare of paddy can be harvested by the end of April. This minimizes the danger of crop damage by flash floods and ensures a safe harvest. More higher yielding, cold tolerant varieties that mature early are needed for these areas. This can be achieved by research on appropriate breeding processes that help to reduce the rice growing period.
42. Crop damage by flash floods can be minimized by the construction of proper submersible embankments, with adequate provisions made for drainage and navigation. However, the responsibility for operating and maintaining them can be transferred to farmer groups in a planned manner. Following this, they can then adopt appropriate technologies to improve the productivity of this area.
43. Two basic development strategies can be adopted to increase agricultural production in flood-prone regions. The first is the provision of flood protection, and the other, is to improve crop production in a status quo environment. The latter is, on the whole, simple and less costly than the former. Modern technologies to overcome floods are only available for the boro season. Their adoption is highest in the country (93.78 %). However, none exists for deepwater rice that covers about 15 per cent of the net cultivable area. Major environmental concerns in rice cultivation relate to three factors, namely, (a) the heavy use of agrochemicals with its adverse effects on human health and water quality; (b) the erosion of biodiversity caused by the adoption of a few profitable modern varieties; and (c) the decline in soil fertility due to intensive rice monoculture (Pingali, et. al. 1996; Bose, et. al. 2000). The limited data available from surveys indicate that these concerns are not currently major problems for the flood-prone regions of Bangladesh.
44. As rice is the predominant crop in such areas, the BRRI has taken great effort to try to develop a deepwater variety that would give higher yield, but it has as yet to succeed. However, other aspects of research to improve the production system were attempted. The results from them indicated that boro varieties grown in deepwater terrain should use extensive irrigation and other up-to-date practices such as integrated pest management. The dapog method of seedling production could be promoted and quality seed production of existing popular deepwater varieties undertaken. Boro followed by transplanted deepwater types should be expanded whenever feasible. Early maturing varieties to avoid flash-flood damage at maturity stage should be developed. In some areas, modern technologies for maize, pulse and oilseed production are absent. There is thus an urgent need to introduce and popularize them.
45. To offset the negative effects of flood control measures on the fishery industry, cage fishery and rice-cum-fish rearing could be introduced. Fast growing fish species should be recommended and fingerlings distributed. The integration of fish with poultry is economically viable and could be another option for farmers.
333 46. The creation of a favorable environment for rice could have a tremendous impact on livestock. The reduction of grazing land and the introduction of power tillers to meet the growing demand for timely land preparation due to increased cropping intensity, have caused the livestock population to diminish. This could be replaced by the production of forage crops and milk, and duck rearing.
4. CONSTRIANTS TO ADOPTION OF FARMING SYSTEMS
47. In Bangladesh, the environment itself is a major constraint to the adoption of not only modern, but, traditional technologies in food-prone areas. A great part of the country is inundated every year and this brings with it various types of damage. The recent devastating flood of 1998 resulted in the highest loss of paddy that was estimated at about 3.0 million tons (Mastafi, et. al. 1999). The two most important factors that govern crop production are flood depth during the monsoon season and the probability or frequency of a sudden rise in the water depth, or the onset of flash floods and storms. The constraints encountered can be grouped as either physical, biological or socio-economic in nature.
4.1 Physical Factors
48. Flood and drought are the two major physical calamities that destroy crops. The submergence of the rain-fed lowland crop (T. aman) during its early growth phase and the irrigated crop (boro) during the maturity stage is very common. Drought during early growth is very frequent in Bangladesh. Declining soil fertility is another important setback. Organic matter content, its main indicator, has deteriorated in many places to as low as less than 1 per cent, whereas good soil should have 3.5 per cent. More than 60 per cent of the net cultivated area has a content of less than 1.7 per cent. In addition, zinc and sulfur deficiencies have shown up in 4 and 2 million hectares, respectively (Das, 2000).
4.2 Non-Availability of Improved Plant Type
49. For the T. aman variety, a submergence tolerance of at least 7 days is needed in areas that are covered with moderate to deep stagnant water. Varieties with characteristics such as tall seedlings, intermediate to tall plants, sturdy culms without elongation, moderate tillage with 8 to 10 fertile tillers and photoperiod sensitive characteristics are required.
50. For the deepwater variety, the desired characteristics are drought tolerance at the seedling stage, inter-node elongation, kneeing ability, photoperiod sensitive and high panicle density and weight. The following are the prevailing constraints to this variety;
(a) non-availability of good quality seeds, (b) lack of tolerance to existing major diseases and pests,
334 (c) farmer’s traditional method of seed selection and storing, and (d) poor maintenance of seed purity.
51. The following socio-economic factors inhibit development;
(a) non-availability of improved cultivation technology, (b) non-availability of fertilizer and other inputs, (c) non-availability of credit to poor farmers, (d) small land holding/farm size/tenure status, (e) lack of adequate technical knowledge on the part of farmers, (f) farmer’s experience with persistent natural disasters and crop failure deters them from investing more in agriculture, and (g) incentive for investment in flood-prone areas are lacking.
5. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
52. Flood has been part and parcel of life for many people in the Asia and Pacific region. It indirectly affects even those living outside of flood prone areas. Farmers have developed different kinds of farming systems and a unique way of life to cope with floods that vary in depth and duration. Their special understanding of this natural adversity and its consequences have helped them live with it and adopt the kind of farming that is suited to it. Culture and agriculture in flood-prone areas blend to produce a lifestyle that is peculiar to such environment. However, floods to this day pose a constraint to increasing food production and overall economic advancement.
53. Human interventions to control them have produced many beneficial results on agriculture and the standard of living of people affected by them. They have helped expand food production to keep abreast with population growth. Flood control and irrigation and drainage structures often enhance the environment, contribute towards risk-free crop production and increase cropping intensity, use of high yielding and modern technology.
54. But such structures have also created negative impacts. They change farming systems and reduce resource poor farmers’ accessibility to nutritious food. In many cases, they deteriorate soil fertility that in turn will adversely affect the sustainability of increased production and natural resources. The main reasons for such adversity are a lack of understanding of the circumstances and requirements of farmers and their priorities, and ignorance of indigenous technical knowledge.
55. Since the demands for improved production and the need to save farmers from losses caused by floods will continue to intensify, it is vital that rehabilitation and mitigating and control measures are designed with the active participation of farmers Ð both men and women. Such participatory diagnosis, planning and implementation are expected to lead to the development and maintenance of sustainable systems.
335 REFERENCES
Alexander, M.J. Rashid, M.S. Shamsuddin, S.D. and Alam, M.S. 1998. Flood Control, Drainage and Irrigation Projects in Bangladesh and their Impact on Soils: an Empirical Study. Land Degrad. Dev. 9(3):233-246. Amin, S. and Iqbal, A. 1993. Coping with Flood Damages and Essentials for Agricultural Rehabilitation. Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council. Dhaka, 24 pp. (in Bangla). Bose, M.L., Isa, M.A., Bayes, A., Sen, B. and Hossain, M. 2000. Impact of Modern Rice on Food Security and Cultivar Diversity: the Bangladesh Case. IRRI. Los Banos. Brammer, H. 1988. Development Possibilities of Flood Prone Areas. ADAB News 15(5):28-34. Das, T. 2000. Existing Rice Varieties in Bangladesh: Challenges and Opportunities for Yield Increase. BRRI. Joydebpur. Fujisaka, S. 1988. Rice Agro-ecosystem, Farmer Management and Social Organizations in Kampuchea: A Preliminary Assessment and Research Recommendations. IRRI Research Paper Series No. 136. Los Banos. Hiroyuki, N. 1992. Participatory Planning for Rural Development and Disaster Management in Bangladesh. Asia-Pacific Journal of Rural Development 2(1): 35-57. Hoggarth, D.D., Dam, R.K., Debnath, K. and Halls, A.S. 1999. Recruitment Sources of Fish Stock Inside a Flood-plain River Impoundment in Bangladesh. Fish. Manage. Ecol. 6(4):287-310. Huke, R.E. and Huke, E.H. 1997. Rice Area by Types of Culture: South and South-east Asia. IRRI. Los Banos. Huynh, N.V. 1989. Multiple Cropping on Floating Rice Areas of An Giang Province. Deep Water Rice 15(1). Kanter, D.G. 1981. Trip Report to Vietnam. IRRI. Los Banos, pp. 33 (mimeo). Mekong Committee. 1988. Perspectives for Mekong Development. Revised Indicative Plan (1987) for the Development of Land, Water and Related Resources of the Lower Mekong Basin. Committee Report. 136 pp. MPO. 1986. National Water Plan. Vol. 1. Dhaka, Master Plan Organization, pp. 3-72. Mustafi, B.A.A., Samad, A.M.A. and Sarker, M.M.R. 1999. Impact of the 1998 Flood on the Rice Growing Farmers in Some Selected Sites of Bangladesh. BRRI. Joydebpur, 32 pp. Nasiruddin, M. 1997. Sustainability and Yield Decline of Modern Rice in Bangladesh. BRRI Publication No. 118. Joydebpur, pp. 16.
336 Pingali, P.L., Hossain, M. and Gerpacio, R. 1997. Asian Rice Bowls: A Returning Crisis? CAB International. London. Puckridge, D.W. 1988. Report on Visit to Vietnam, July 1988. IRRI. Los Banos, 4 pp. (mimeo). Pantulu, V.R. 1986. Fish of the Lower Mekong Basin. In: The Ecology of River Systems (Eds. B.R. Davis and Walker, K.F.), Junk, Dordrecht, pp. 721-741. Sakurai, Y. 1980. The Red River Delta During Ly Dynasty (1010-1225 AD). Southeast Asian Studies 18: pp. 271-314. Singh, R.K. et. al. 2000. Rice Biodiversity and Genetic Wealth. In: Rain-fed Rice: A Source Book for Best Practices and Strategies in Eastern India (Eds. V.P. Singh and R.K. Singh). IRRI. Los Banos, pp. 24-30. Stone, I. 1984. Canal Irrigation in British India. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Sultana, P. and Thompson, P.M. 1997. Effects of Flood Control and Drainage on Fisheries in Bangladesh and the Design of Mitigating Measures. Regul. Rivers: Res. Manage. 13(1):43-55. Thakur, R. and Singh, V.P. 2000. Boro Rice Cultivation. In: Rain-fed Rice: A Source Book for Best Practices and Strategies in Eastern India (Eds. V.P. Singh and R.K. Singh). IRRI. Los Banos, pp. 83-86.
337
(338 blank) Annex XVI APDC/01/12
DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR ANIMAL HEALTH*
ABSTRACT
During the last 15 years, infectious and vector-borne animal diseases have become of increasing importance world-wide and diseases emergencies are occurring with increasing frequency. Even industrialised nations have been affected. Some of the reasons for this that are discussed in the paper are: Livestock Intensification, structural adjustment programmes, political and social instability, climatic change and increased animal movement and trade.
Animal diseases are increasingly been accepted as natural disasters both in their own right and as consequences of other disasters. In view of the increasing frequency of disease emergencies, it is necessary to develop systems for their prediction, early detection, and structured risk-based surveillance leading to early warning. This in turn should be able to lead to an organised and structured response in order to contain a disease outbreak and prevent it from evolving into a major epidemic.
* Prepared by Mark M. Rweyemamu, Senior Officer, Infectious Diseases-EMPRES Group; and D. Hoffmann, RAP Senior Animal Production and Health Officer.
339 CONTENTS
Page 1. INTRODUCTION ...... 341 1.1 The Impact of Livestock Intensification on animal disease ...... 344 1.2 The impact of structural adjustment programmes ...... 345 1.3 The impact of political and social instability on animal health . 346 1.4 Effect of climatic change on animal diseases ...... 346 1.5 The impact of animal movement and trade on disease incidence ...... 348
2. GOOD EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PRACTICES IN ANIMAL HEALTH ...... 350
340 1. INTRODUCTION
1. During the 1970’s there was hope that the major epidemic diseases of livestock and humans were being brought under control in many countries and practically eliminated from OECD countries. Most predictions were emphasising the increasing importance of endemic and productivity-limiting non-infectious diseases with a concomitant progressive reduction in the relevance of epidemic diseases to livestock production. With increasing intensive livestock farming in the industrialised world, there was also a notion that at worst infectious diseases could be confined to the least developed parts of the world and therefore would have little impact on development, food security and trade.
2. During the last 15 years, however, infectious and vector-borne animal diseases have become of increasing importance world-wide and disease emergencies are occurring with increasing frequency. Even industrialised nations have been affected. Thus in 1997, the World Health Organisation (WHO) observed, for human health, that:
“Experience has shown that reducing resources to control infectious diseases in favour of other priorities leads to the resurgence of disease and can create problems more widespread and costly than before”.
3. This is equally true of animal health and recent examples of outbreaks of either old diseases or newly recognised diseases or re-emerging or evolving diseases bear testimony to this. Some examples are summarised in Table 1.
Table 1. Examples of recent epidemics of transboundary animal diseases
Rinderpest is perhaps the most serious cattle plague. The optimism of the 1970s was shattered when during the 1980s rinderpest spread practically throughout South Asia, The Middle East and Tropical Africa, affecting cattle, buffalo and wildlife. The disease has come under control again, thanks to an international partnership through the Global Rinderpest Eradication Programme. Currently (2001), it is confined to only 3 isolated eco-systems: southern Somalia, southern Sudan and parts of southern Pakistan. The success of GREP will depend on whether rinderpest can be eliminated from these foci befere the end of 2003, otherwise there remains a risk that rinderpest could flare up again as it did in 1980s. Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious virus disease of cloven-hoofed animals. There are seven distinct types of FMD virus. It is the animal disease with the greatest impact on international trade. Ordinarily the OECD countries are free from this disease while it is endemic in the Least Developed Countries. Roughly, the endemic distribution of the seven types of FMD is as follows: Type O: Asia, Africa, Middle East and South America; Type A: Asia, Africa, Middle East and South America; Type C: Asia, Africa, South America (NB: this type occurs rarely and tends to be sporadic); Type Asia 1: Asia; Types SAT 1, SAT 2, and SAT 3: Africa. In recent years serious epidemics of FMD have occurred outside areas of endemicity causing major economic losses e.g. type O FMD in Taiwan, Province of China in 1997 and again in 2000; type O Pan-Asian topotype which over
341 Table 1. Examples of recent epidemics of transboundary animal diseases (continued) a period of 10 years spread progressively from South Asia eastward to China, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia and Taiwan Province of China and Westward to the Middle east and Southeast Europe and during 2000-2001 leapt to South Africa and to UK, France, Netherlands and Ireland. Type SAT 2 spread to in Saudi Arabia in 2000, which is the first time this type has been recorded outside Africa.
Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) PPR was until relatively recently considered to be limited in distribution to West Africa. However, it is now the most evolving epidemic of small ruminants. It has extended throughout sub-Saharan Africa from Mauritania to Somalia and southwards to the coastal belt of the Congo Republic in the west and Sudan, Ethiopia and Somalia in the east. In the Middle East there have been serious epidemics in Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Iraq and now PPR has extended as far west as Turkey, which borders Europe, and Asia it now extends as far eastwards as Bangladesh. It appears that there has been an actual extension of its range as well as increasing aetiological differentiation between PPR and other causes of pneumonic disease in sheep and goats. In India many cases in sheep formerly ascribed to rinderpest are now known to have been caused by PPR. It has been responsible for heavy losses in small ruminants in Nepal, Pakistan, India and Bangladesh.
Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia is a serious mycoplasmal disease of cattle. There has been a catastrophic spread of CBPP over the last few years in Africa where it now affects some 27 countries and causes estimated losses of up to US$ 2 billion annually. In 1995 the disease was reintroduced to Botswana for the first time in 46 years. As part of the eradication campaign, all cattle (approximately 320,000) in an area of northern Botswana had to be slaughtered at a direct cost of $100 million; indirect losses were over $400 million.
Classical swine fever (CSF) is a generalised virus disease affecting only pigs. It is endemic throughout many of the swine-rearing areas of the world. It is a major and constant constraint to swine production in the countries of Eastern and Southeastern Asia. It is also endemic in some of the Latin American countries and Cuba (since the 1980s). In 1996 it was introduced into Haiti causing major losses and it is now endemic there; it has spread to the Dominican Republic. In 1998 outbreaks were reported in Costa Rica. Classical swine fever is a disease that poses serious threat to the swine industry of the Americas. It is practically absent from the continental part of the Americas. Therefore, the recent epidemic in the Caribbean is seen as a serious threat to North America and South America as well as non-infected Caribbean countries. In Europe, the most serious, recent epidemics have been in Germany, The Netherlands, Spain and the UK. Molecular genetic studies indicated that the causal virus strain was more related to those isolated from Southeast Asia than those circulating in the wild suidae in Europe.
African swine fever is another generalised virus disease affecting pigs. It is endemic in southern and eastern Africa where it is maintained an endemic cycle involving soft ticks (Ornthodorus moubata) and wild Suidae (warthogs and bushpigs). Since mid-1990s there have been serious outbreaks in areas, which either had never experienced ASF before or had not had outbreaks for a long time. For example, in 1994 ASF moved from the endemic area in northern Mozambique to Maputo and devastated the pig population killing 80 per cent of the estimated 4,000 pigs in the area. In 1996 it occurred for the first time in Côte d’Ivoire, where it killed 25 per cent of the pig population and, according to various estimates, cost the country between US$ 13 and 32 million in direct and indirect losses and eradication costs. There has since been serious spread of ASF to Togo, Benin, Gambia and Nigeria. In 1999 the disease spread to Ghana where it has since been eradicated.
342 Table 1. Examples of recent epidemics of transboundary animal diseases (continued)
Newcastle disease (ND) is one of the most important viral diseases of poultry. The history of ND is marked by at least three pandemics in domestic birds. The first began with the emergence of the disease in fowl in the middle of the 1920s and spread slowly from Asia throughout the world. The second outbreak appeared to emerge in fowl in the Middle East in the late 1960s, reaching all continents by mid-1970s. A third outbreak in the 1970s, also starting in the Middle East, was associated with a mainly neurotropic and viscerotropic velogenic disease in pigeons. Currently, we are witnessing the forth panzootic. Since 1991, there has been an increase in incidence with series of related outbreaks affecting again poultry in many European countries. Iran, India South East Asia was hit by the worse epidemic ever reported. In 1999, the panzootic reached the American continent and Australia. ND is regarded to be endemic or epidemic almost allover the world.
Infectious bursal disease (IBD/Gumboro) emerged in 1957 as a clinical entity responsible for acute morbidity and mortality in broilers in USA. The diseases has now been reported to occur in most parts of the world and is widespread in commercial chicken as well as scavenging chickens. IBD is caused by infectious bursal disease virus (IBDV). Recently, IBDV isolates were described in USA and Europe displaying an antigenic drift. These new “hot” isolates are very virulent for chickens. The disease has an acute stage followed by immunosuppression, resulting in lowered resistance to a variety of infectious agents and poor response to commonly used vaccines. The acute stage of the disease and the immunosuppression that follows are major factors contributing to the economic significance.
Nipah Virus: Between late 1998 and mid-1999, a new pig disease characterised by a pronounced respiratory and neurologic syndrome, sometimes with sudden death of sows and boars was noticed to spread among some pig farms in Peninsular Malaysia. A new virus belonging to the paramyxoviridae family, named ‘Nipah’ was discovered and later confirmed to be the same agent responsible for the human and pig disease. In humans, the virus causes fever, severe headache, myalgia, and signs of encephalitis or meningitis. The case fatality rate has been about 40 per cent. By May 1999 when WHO declared the outbreak to be controlled, a total of viral encephalitis cases with 105 deaths were recorded in human related to pig farming activity. To bring the outbreak under control in the States of Negeri Sembilan, Perak and Selangor a ‘stamping out’ policy was instituted to cull all pigs in the outbreak areas in the first phase. A total of 901, 228 pigs from 896 farms were destroyed in the infected areas from 28 February to 26 April 1999.
Rift Valley fever is a mosquito-borne viral zoonotic disease. Until 1977 it was confined to Sub-Saharan Africa. Then it occurred in Egypt in 1977 and again in 1993 caused an estimated 200,000 human cases of the disease with some 600 deaths as well as large numbers of deaths and abortions in sheep and cattle and other livestock species. Following the heavy El Niño rain in 1997/98 a serious outbreak was experienced in Eastern Africa causing not only livestock losses and human deaths but also seriously disrupted the valuable livestock export trade to the Near East. During 2000 an outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurred in Saudi Arabia and Yemen in the wet areas of Gizan and Al-Hudaydah. This is the first time that an outbreak of RVF has been recorded outside Africa.
Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), a prion disease of cattle, was first recognized in the United Kingdom in 1986. Since then, over 170,000 cattle have either died or been slaughtered. The discovery of a probable link between BSE and new variant Creutzfeld-Jakob disease of humans in 1996 led to major disruptions of world beef markets.
343 1.1 The Impact of Livestock Intensification on animal disease
4. Demographic estimates indicate that the world urban population is growing at the rate of 60 million per annum and that by 2010 the urban population will have exceeded that of rural areas. It is also estimated that 26 cities in the world will have populations of 10 million or more and that these will be located mainly in what are now classified as developing countries. This growth in urban population has fuelled the growth of intensification of and peri-urban livestock farming in several developing countries. Inevitably this has led to an increasing importance of endemic diseases in addition to the increased risk of epidemic diseases. The impact of livestock intensification is many-fold:
● The congregation of highly susceptible animals creates conditions for rapid amplification of the disease-causing agents that may even be associated with changes in virulence. Classical swine fever in Europe and FMD in the Philippines are recent examples.
● Many endemic diseases that under extensive farming systems are of little consequence they often cause significant productivity losses under intensified systems. Examples include the enteric and respiratory disease complexes in young cattle and pigs due to viral and bacterial infections, helminthosis and many poultry diseases.
● Several livestock development projects have been compromised by exacerbated disease conditions where the focus has been on improving production without adequate attention to the health hazards. Examples include PPR in Bangladesh and African swine fever in West Africa.
● While the origin of Nipah virus is still not definitely identified, there is strong indication that extension of large pig breeding units to new areas may have brought pigs into contact with a virus that might have previously circulated in nature with little impact on animal and human health. Once introduced into the large pig units it multiplied rapidly, possibly increasing its virulence for pigs and humans. Thus the Malaysian authorities have now prohibited pig rearing in the previously infected areas of Negeri Sembilan to avoid future possible amplification of wild Nipah virus.
● The emergency of BSE in the UK has been associated with the feeding of inappropriately treated Meat and Bone Meal to dairy cattle.
5. These examples illustrate the dangers that are likely to be associated with livestock development and intensification in developing countries, where the disease burden is greater than in temperate climate, industrialised countries. Therefore, the success of such schemes is bound to depend on the degree of attention given to disease prevention, detection, control and management of animal diseases.
344 1.2 The impact of structural adjustment programmes
6. The collective geographical location of the diseases of livestock of major economic importance e.g. FMD, rinderpest, contagious bovine pleuropneumonia, classical swine fever, African swine fever, sheep and goat pox, trypanosomosis, tick-borne diseases, Newcastle disease and probably infectious bursal disease extends from Africa across the Middle East and into Asia encompassing many of the poorer countries of the world. The sustained control of these diseases requires socio-political stability and ability to access all livestock by veterinary personnel, apart from the input of resources to supply and deliver vaccines, maintain effective surveillance systems to detect suspected cases at an early stage and provide the trained manpower and resources to implement disease control strategies in the event of outbreaks. Most countries across this sector of the globe do not have resources required to support all of those elements and so they resort to strategic approaches. The national veterinary services in developing countries have, like other departments, to compete for scarce resources but unfortunately they are often politically weak and fare badly when the cake is cut up. Furthermore, economic structural adjustment programmes tended in several cases to weaken the administrative, legal and financial capacity for dealing with major animal diseases. Consequently, progress in the control of animal diseases in many developing countries has become a tediously slow and unpredictable business.
7. In the immediate post colonial period of the 1960s, the public sector veterinary services of most developing countries were engaged in the delivery of the full spectrum of veterinary activities and services with little or no participation of the private sector. By the mid-1970s many countries were experiencing serious economic difficulties and started seeking financial remedial assistance. It was felt that the rescue lay in structural adjustment of their economies. Changes in fiscal, financial and pricing policy included the elimination of subsidies and removal of tariffs while institutional reforms included privatisation of government-owned enterprises and the introduction of cost-recovery. In seeking to move services from public to private sectors, it was argued that, in most domains, any form of private enterprise is likely to outperform the public sector. This led to a drive for the privatisation of veterinary services, thus aiming at diminishing drastically the role of the state in these activities. Animal health was seen as a private good and veterinary services were seen essentially as providing an animal health care delivery system. So issues like the sale of veterinary medicines and vaccines, provision of clinical services or undertaking vaccinations became uppermost in the implementation the privatisation programme. Surveillance, early warning, laboratory diagnostic services, planning, regulation and management of disease control programmes as well as assurance of the quality and safety of animal products became a secondary consideration. The concepts of control of epidemic (and usually trade-related) diseases and the international obligation to manage and report on these diseases, was lost. As a result of restructuring and decentralisation government veterinary officers were often placed under the control of regional and local authorities within a general agricultural extension system. Thus, the chain of veterinary command that required notification of disease outbreaks enabled a response to disease emergencies
345 and also which managed national disease control programmes was often effectively dismantled.
8. The combination of a poor financial resources and an improperly organised national veterinary service often has led to a deterioration in animal health services with epidemic diseases often spreading unchecked. However, there are examples where greater involvement of the private sector has actually improved the control of epidemic diseases. The most notable example is the case of countries of the Mercosur of South America. Here the private farming and trading sectors became involved in the planning and monitoring of disease control programme and exerted pressure on governments so much so that the efficiency of the supervisory and regulatory roles of the public sector actually improved. As a result, South America has made great strides in FMD control and government services have been able also to react resolutely to disease emergencies. Another example is provided by the Indian National Dairy Development Corporation’s involvement in FMD control on farms of members of the co-operative.
1.3 The impact of political and social instability on animal health
9. When political upheaval leads to conflict the consequences for disease control programmes can be catastrophic. For example, following the Gulf War and the military offensive of the Iraq government forces against the rebellious Kurds in the north, there was mass migration into Turkey. The refugees took as many of their animals as possible with them and in doing so introduced rinderpest into Turkey’s susceptible livestock population. Turkish farmers in the south-east of the country, rushing to dispose of their sick animals as quickly as possible, spread the disease through the marketing chain to Ankara and as far west as the Sea of Marmara.
10. International political isolation of countries can also lead to a worsening disease situation within the region.
11. Thus there are strong associations between political and social instability and the increased incidence of disease. Attendance to animal health through professionally guided community-based programmes will need to be an increasing component of humanitarian programmes in conflict affected areas to avoid consequential major epizootics.
1.4 Effect of climatic change on animal diseases
12. Climatic factors can have a major effect on the rate of transmission of many infectious diseases. Microbial agents and their vector organisms are sensitive to factors such as temperature, humidity, precipitation, surface water, wind and changes in vegetation. This applies particularly to vector-borne diseases (VBDs), such as Rift Valley Fever (RVF) transmitted by mosquitoes; African horse sickness (AHS) and bluetongue (BT) Ð both transmitted by biting midges (Culicoides spp), African swine
346 fever (ASF), East Coast fever, anaplasmosis, babesiosis and Nairobi sheep disease transmitted by ticks; and trypanosomosis transmitted by tsetse flies. It is projected, therefore, that climate changes and altered weather patterns will affect the range, intensity, and seasonality of many vector-borne and other infectious diseases.
13. Considerable progress has been made in dissecting and defining the climatic and environmental factors that influence vector biology. The data has generally been obtained by a combination of field and laboratory studies. These approaches, combined with satellite remote sensing, geographical information systems (GIS) and biomathematical modelling could be used to develop simulation models to predict when and where disease outbreaks are likely to occur and how things might alter with climate change. Armed with this information control strategies e.g. the use of prophylactic vaccination and vector control, could be used to protect animals in advance of the spread of a disease and thereby reduce its impact.
14. For example, successful attempts have been made to model the abundance and distribution in southern Africa of Culicoides imicola, the vector midge of AHS and BT viruses. The abundance of C. imicola, together with associated climate data have been analysed in combination with certain satellite-derived variables with the aim of developing models of C. imicola abundance to predict the risk of AHS and BT. Similarly for the 1997/98 Rift Valley fever in Eastern Africa, an examination of the satellite remote sensing images could readily identify areas for intensive ground surveillance for RVF and other VBDs.
15. Some VBDs are zoonotic diseases and cause serious illness and death in humans. Climate change is likely to increase the prevalence and incidence of many such diseases (geographically or from season to year-round). For example, global warming and resulting rising sea level would displace some human populations, perhaps resulting in migration into wilderness areas where zoonotic infectious agents are being transmitted in silent life cycles.
16. It is predicted that global warming will be characterised by more frequent storms and flooding in certain areas. Higher temperature, increased humidity and more extensive surface water might result in increased insect populations and a higher incidence of VBD. On the other hand, periods of drought will cause the extensive migration of pastoral herds in search of water and grazing and favour the spread of disease by vectors and by contact between animals. These conditions would increase the likelihood of livestock mingling with wildlife populations and the transmission of pathogens. Support for these predictions is provided by the strong association shown between the major epidemics of AHS in South Africa which occur every 10 to 15 years and the warm (El Niño) phase of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which is mediated by the combination of rainfall and drought brought to South Africa by ENSO. Warm-phase ENSOs bring both rainfall and drought to southern Africa. Populations of C. imicola can increase 200-fold in years of heavy rain. However, heavy rainfall occurs for other reasons in many non-ENSO years but epidemics of AHS do not result. It seems that a combination of heavy rainfall followed by drought is the critical
347 combination, which leads to epidemics. It has been proposed that this is because the high temperatures during droughts increases vector population growth rates and the coincidence of this with the congregation of horses with the virus reservoir (zebra) at the few remaining sources of water creates the conditions favourable for the vector to transmit AHS virus.
17. In Asia the impact of floods, droughts and cyclones has has not been a sufficiently analysed in term of animal health. Yet these climatic changes are taking place with increasing veracity on the continent. For example in Bangladesh only six years between 1960 and 1992 were free of climate induced disasters. It has been estimated that droughts occurred on average every 2.3 years and floods and cyclones every 1.8 years. It can be expected that both established diseases and newly introduced diseases are likely to be of increasing intensity. This has already been evidenced in Bangladesh by the pattern of Peste des Petits Ruminants, a disease, which was first recognised in the country in 1993.
1.5 The impact of animal movement and trade on disease incidence
18. Increased road construction across Central and South America, Africa and Asia aimed primarily at responding to expanding industrial needs has also made it easier and cheaper to transport animals over long distances on land. Similarly, the growth of sea and airfreight systems facilitates the transport of animals around the world. The most common mechanism for the transmission of infectious organisms is contact between infected and susceptible hosts. Modern animal transport systems are ideally suited for spreading disease. The animals commonly originate from different herds or flocks, they are often confined together for long periods in a poorly ventilated stressful environment Ð all of which will favour the transmission within the group of infectious disease should one or more sick animals be present. If not destined for slaughter, the animals will be introduced into new herds or flocks where they will be subjected to social and dietary stress and an exchange of microorganisms with the resident population.
19. A spectacular inter-continental trade transfer of a pest was exemplified by the New World Screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) in Libya in 1988. This was the first time this pest became established outside its natural range in the Americas. Recent years have seen some spectacular examples of the consequences of extended trade links. The outbreaks of FMD type SAT 2 in dairy herds in Saudi Arabia and in sheep in Kuwait during 2000 probably resulted from the importation into the Arabian Peninsula of cattle or sheep from Eastern Africa. While FMD type SAT 2 virus is endemic in many parts of Africa this is the first occasion that the SAT 2 sero-type has been recorded outside Africa.
20. The dynamics of FMD between Myanmar, Thailand and Malaysia is often a direct result of movement of trade cattle. Similarly the vast movement of pigs in eastern Asia has been associated with the spread of foot-and-mouth disease.
348 21. The movement of infected animals is the most common mechanism by which infectious diseases such as FMD and ND are transmitted. However, spread can also result from the feeding to animals of contaminated foodstuffs such as hay and contaminated unheated waste food of animal origin. The transport of contaminated meat and fodder around the world is a mechanism by which FMD can be spread over long distances and by which exotic strains can be introduced into new territories.
Figure 1. Foot-and-Mouth disease (evolution of South Asia FMD topotype)
22. The most dramatic example, however, is the evolution of the spread of FMD sero-type O that is now referred as the Pan-Asian topotype, which over a 10-year period has spread through most of Asia, has affected parts of Europe and South Africa. This virus was first identified in northern India in 1990 and spread westwards into Saudi Arabia during 1994 and, subsequently, throughout the Near East and into Europe (Turkish Thrace, Bulgaria and Greece) in 1996. In 1993 it was found in Nepal and later in Bangladesh (1996) and Bhutan (1998). In 1999, it was reported from Mainland China (Tibet, Fujian and Hainan) and then detected in Taiwan Province of China. In late 1999 and in 2000 it reached most of Southeast Asia. Most recently it has been introduced into the Republic of Korea, Japan, the Primorsky Territory of the Russian Federation and Mongolia (areas free from FMD since 1934, 1908, 1964 and 1973, respectively). The virus has been isolated from a wide variety of host species (cattle, water buffaloes, pigs, sheep, goats, camels, deer and antelope). In September 2000, the FMD Pan-Asian topotype was identified on a pig farm in Kwa Zulu, South Africa. It is believed that infection was introduced there through swill collected from a ship originating from South Asia. In February 2001 the same strain was identified in
349 England, again probably introduced through swill feeding. This virus has now (early April 2001) already resulted in over 1,000 outbreaks in the UK and a small numbers of outbreaks in Ireland, France and the Netherlands.
2. GOOD EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PRACTICES IN ANIMAL HEALTH
23. Animal diseases are increasingly been accepted as natural disasters both in their own right and as consequences of other disasters. In view of the increasing frequency of disease emergencies, it is necessary to develop systems for their prediction, early detection, and structured risk-based surveillance leading to early warning. This in turn should be able to lead to an organised and structured response in order to contain a disease outbreak and prevent it from evolving into a major epidemic. It is equally important to address disease at source where it is ordinarily endemic in order to reduce its impact on food security, on the vulnerability of poor communities and to reduce the risk of spread from endemic areas to free areas causing serious disasters. This is the basic principle which underlines the EMPRES-Livestock programme, whose vision is stated as: “To promote the effective containment and control of the most serious epidemic livestock diseases as well as newly emerging diseases by progressive elimination on a regional and global basis through international co-operation involving early warning, early/rapid reaction, enabling research and co-ordination”.
24. Therefore, in addressing animal disease as a natural emergency EMPRES has developed a Code of Conduct to guide Member Countries to establish a structured approach to disease emergencies. This is referred to Good Emergency management practice (GEMP) in animal health which is defined as the sum total of organised procedures, structures and resource management that lead to early detection of disease or infection in an animal population, prediction of the likely spread, prompt limitation, targeted control and elimination with subsequent re-establishment of verifiable freedom from infection in accordance with the International Animal Health Code. http:// www.fao.org/WAICENT/FAOINFO/AGRICULT/AGA/AGAH/EMPRES/GEMP.htm
25. The programme is also available on CD. It approaches disease emergencies in four main segments:
● Planning for an Emergency ● Recognising an Emergency ● Responding to an Emergency ● Recovering from an Emergency
26. The programme is underpinned by a set of resource materials as videos, manuals, photo-library, model contingency plans and has links to major internet sites dealing with disease emergency management.
350 27. Finally, it should be noted that faced with the dilemma of the need for sustained agricultural production coupled with the desire for increased and liberalised trade on the one hand and the threat of infectious diseases on the other, the World Food Summit in Rome 1996 committed the world governments and the civil society to: Ð ÇSeek to ensure effective prevention and progressive control of plant and animal pests and diseases, including especially those which are of transboundary nature, such as rinderpest, cattle tick, foot and mouth disease and desert locust, where outbreaks can cause major food shortages, destabilise markets and trigger trade measures; and promote concurrently, regional collaboration in plant pests and animal disease control and the widespread development and use of integrated pest management practicesÈ.
351
(352 blank) Annex XVII APDC/01/13
MANAGING THE CONTINUUM OF RELIEF, REHABILITATION, RECONSTRUCTION AND RECOVERY ACTIVITIES FOLLOWING DISASTERS IN FOOD AND AGRICULTURE*
ABSTRACT
In recent years, the frequency and severity of natural disasters and human-induced or complex emergencies have increased; so have the humanitarian activities aiming to provide emergency assistance to those affected by disasters.
Post disaster assistance is an integral part of FAO’s mandate to help raise levels of nutrition and standards of living, particularly in rural areas of the developing world.
Interventions in emergencies can be described in terms of a sequence of events, sometimes referred to as a disaster cycle, with distinct phases, each requiring different action. The continuity of objectives throughout the emergency sequence Ð a relief-development continuum Ð implies that development objectives should not and cannot be set aside during emergencies.
The Organization operates the whole cycle of interventions, from emergency relief through rehabilitation to long term recovery for agriculture.
In its strategic framework for 2000-2015, FAO plans to address preparedness for, and effective and sustainable response to, food and agricultural emergencies. As part of its Medium-Term Plan (2002-2007), the Organization endeavoured improving inter-departmental coordination through defining Disaster Prevention, Mitigation and Preparedness and Post-Emergency Relief and Rehabilitation as a priority area for inter-departmental action (PAIA).
In its response to emergencies, FAO aims to increase the resilience and capacity of rural population to cope with the impacts of disasters on food security and, to foster the transition from relief to recovery of the food and agricultural sectors. The Organization has integrated its emergency work into the overall
* Prepared by Laurent Thomas, Senior Operations Officer, and Diane Prince, Information Officer, TCOR.
353 humanitarian assistance of the UN, and increased its cooperation with donors and with NGOs active in emergency agricultural assistance projects, providing technical advice and coordination to the NGO’s agricultural activities.
With a view to reducing susceptibility to further disasters and emergencies, FAO assesses the rehabilitation, reconstruction and recovery needs in the food and agricultural sectors and gears its activities towards sustainable recovery. FAO also provides assistance to establish an effective policy and institutional framework for future sector growth and development.
The world may never be free from disaster but we can improve our ability to prepare, respond and rebuild. FAO is ready to play its role in that process and participate to the international efforts that can reduce the risk of natural disaster becoming a human tragedy.
Support to agriculture rehabilitation offers the possibility to move from humanitarian and relief interventions back to development initiatives. It offers the possibility to return to a situation of normalcy, where development can take place in countries and regions where the vast majority of the population lives in rural areas and obtain their source of livelihood from agriculture, livestock or fisheries.
354 CONTENTS
Page 1. INTRODUCTION ...... 356
2. NATURE AND SCOPE OF RECENT DISASTERS ...... 358
3. FAO’S RESPONSE TO EMERGENCIES Ð THE POLITICAL COMMITMENT, CORPORATE STRATEGY AND FRAME- WORK FOR ACTION ...... 359
4. THE EMERGENCY SEQUENCE FROM RELIEF TO DEVELOP- MENT Ð HOW FAO PREPARES FOR AND RESPONDS TO EMERGENCIES ...... 360
5. “RELIEF-DEVELOPMENT CONTINUUM” – DEBATES AND ISSUES ...... 365
355 1. INTRODUCTION
1. In recent years, the frequency and severity of droughts, floods, storms and other natural disasters has increased; so have the destruction and human suffering caused by civil strife. The upward trend in the incidence of natural disasters and human-induced or complex emergencies continues. The people most severely affected by disasters are often those living in rural areas but the disruption of agricultural and food systems can have serious consequences for both rural and urban populations and it is generally the resource-poor who are the most vulnerable.
40 35 Human-induced 30 disasters Natural disasters 25 20 15 10 5 Number of countries affected 0 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99
2. Although much has been learnt from experience in how to predict most types of disasters and new technologies are raising the lead time for the issuance of warnings of adverse weather events, there has been an alarming increase in the number of countries affected by disasters. This trend appears to have been linked to a rise in the scale of damage. Much of the increase has been in countries affected by natural disasters (rising from 10 to 18 per year between 1996 and today). The most alarming trend is however in the steep increase in the number of countries affected by man-made disasters which have risen from an average of 5 in the 1980s to 22 in 2000, mainly due to conflict. Emergency situations with important social and economic repercussions are also created by the spread of plant and animal diseases, as well as by human diseases such as HIV/AIDS.
3. Post disaster assistance is an integral part of FAO’s mandate to help raise levels of nutrition and standards of living, particularly in rural areas of the developing world.
4. FAO is the only UN specialized agency which operates the whole cycle of interventions, from emergency relief through rehabilitation to long term recovery for agriculture.
5. FAO’s role in natural and man-made disasters is guided by the commitments set forth in the Rome Declaration on World Food Security and World Food Summit
356 Plan of Action, which was formulated by leaders from 186 countries in 1996. The Organization actively assists national and international efforts to prevent, be prepared for, and respond to natural disaster and man-made emergencies. It also manages agricultural relief programmes that give direct aid to affected populations in ways that encourage recovery, rehabilitation, development and a capacity to satisfy future needs.
6. The challenge is to increase the resilience and capacity of countries and their populations to cope with the impacts of disasters that affect national and household food security and, when disasters do occur, to contribute to emergency operations that foster the transition from relief to recovery of the food and agricultural sectors.
7. In post-disaster interventions, it is important that efforts be undertaken in close harmony and collaboration with other external agencies and with the government. In turn, the government has a crucial role to play in creating a political, economic and institutional environment capable of maximizing the benefits of this external assistance. Only through this collaborative approach, and with a view towards equity and sustainability, can food security be restored quickly, and the propensity towards civil conflict can perhaps even be abated in the years ahead.
8. FAO has, over the last few years, greatly increased its capacity to respond to the needs of subsistence farmers hit by natural or manmade disasters. The Organization has integrated its emergency work into the overall humanitarian assistance of the UN and increased its cooperation with donors and with NGOs active in emergency agricultural assistance projects, providing technical advice and coordination to the NGO’s agricultural activities. While the Organization originally (since 1973 when the Office for Sahelian Relief Operations Ð OSRO Ð was established) assisted member- countries with agricultural inputs after natural disasters, it is now also extensively involved in early agricultural rehabilitation in post-conflict situation as well as assistance to subsistence farmers subject to internal displacement due to conflict and civil strife. FAO also assists in reintegrating ex-combatants into agricultural production activities.
9. Simultaneously, the Organization has implemented the agricultural component of the Oil-for-Food Programme in Iraq. The Oil-for-Food Programme is a temporary measure to provide, on a humanitarian basis, goods to the Iraqi people. The Programme authorizes the sale of Iraqi oil for humanitarian assistance. FAO’s mandate under this programme encompasses agricultural relief and rehabilitation. In the three Northern Governorates of Iraq, FAO implements the agricultural programme, which includes the identification of needs, the procurement, receipt and storage of inputs and supplies, their sale and distribution to beneficiaries, technical assistance, monitoring and reporting. In the Centre and South, the government provides this assistance, and FAO’s role is limited to monitoring and reporting on the equitable distribution of the goods.
357 2. NATURE AND SCOPE OF RECENT DISASTERS
Natural Disasters
10. Windstorms and floods accounted for 60 per cent of the total economic loss caused by natural disasters between 1990 and 1999, earthquakes represented 30 per cent, while wildfires accounted for only 5 per cent, drought 3 per cent and extreme temperatures 2 per cent.1 In recent years, major storm events and floods have struck China, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Cambodia, India, Southern Africa (especially Mozambique), Central America, the Caribbean islands and Venezuela. Major wildfires occurred in China, Indonesia, Turkey and Brazil in the late 1990’s. Central Asia and the Horn of Africa Region were particularly hit by droughts. Central America and India were recently shacked by major earthquakes and herders from Mongolia suffered from the extreme weather conditions during the past winter.
11. Many natural hazards do not cause disasters. The extent to which a disaster situation is induced by natural events is largely a function of the effectiveness of early warning systems, of the nature and scope of human activity and of the extent of infrastructure and services, which can offer protection. Poor people in the densely populated areas of developing countries are the most susceptible to natural disasters, and studies suggest that the growing scale of such disasters is attributable to economic, social and population pressures, contributing to environmental degradation.
Conflicts
12. Armed conflict and civil strife were major sources of food insecurity over the last decade. Hundreds and millions of people were affected; the vast majority of them in low-income countries where agriculture is the primary source of livelihood and represents a large share of the Growth National Product (GNP). Unfortunately, the trend is continuing in this century.
13. A characteristic of conflicts, which concerns FAO, is that they are usually fought in the countryside, and for this reason, tend to have devastating effects on the rural population and agriculture. Clearly, the most tragic results of conflict are the suffering, injury and death of men, women and children. However, the material losses in output, means of production and infrastructure are extremely significant as they undermine the ability of survivors to subsist and recover. This is most prominent in agricultural communities, where the destruction of crops and livestock results in reduced food security, and all too often in famine and death.
14. The destruction of food stocks and the means of agricultural production may be a military objective of the belligerents. In such an approach to warfare, food insecurity becomes a powerful weapon, with disastrous effects on the rural population.
1 FAO, Committee on Agriculture (16th Session), Reducing Agricultural Vulnerability to Storm-Related Disasters.
358 WHAT CREATES A FOOD AND AGRICULTURAL EMERGENCY IN THE AFTERMATH OF A DISASTER?
➣ Local food shortages ➣ Collapse of marketing and services ➣ Loss of agricultural income infrastructure ➣ ➣ Loss of assets Degradation of natural resource base ➣ ➣ Loss of means of livelihood Displacement of people from homes and sources of livelihood ➣ Reduced food intake among vulnerable ➣ people Breakdown of social fabric ➣ ➣ Destruction of physical infrastructure Increased incidence of under-nutrition, disease and death among vulnerable ➣ National food shortages people
3. FAO’S RESPONSE TO EMERGENCIES Ð THE POLITICAL COMMITMENT, CORPORATE STRATEGY AND FRAMEWORK FOR ACTION
15. FAO began implementing short-term emergency relief operations in 1973 in response to the severe drought in the Sahel-Soudanian region of Africa.
16. In 1993, FAO established an Emergency Coordination Group (ECG) to enhance the Organization’s institutional capacity to respond to increasing demands for humanitarian assistance. Its mandate and composition were revised in 1999 to further reinforce the coordination and effectiveness of FAO’s multidisciplinary response to agricultural emergencies. The Emergency Coordination Group is composed of representatives from all of FAO’s technical departments.
17. At the World Food Summit held in Rome in 1996, leaders from 186 countries gathered and formulated a Plan of Action that included a commitment to prevent and be prepared for natural disasters and human-induced emergencies and to meet transitory and emergency food requirements in ways that encourage recovery, rehabilitation, development and a capacity to satisfy future needs.
18. Furthermore, at the 30th Session of the FAO Conference held in Rome in November 1999, the Organization included in its strategic framework for 2000-2015 a plan to address preparedness for, and effective and sustainable response to, food and agricultural emergencies.
19. The strategy components include:
strengthening disaster preparedness and the ability to mitigate the impact of emergencies;
forecasting and providing early warning of adverse conditions in the food and agricultural sectors and of impending food emergencies;
359 assessing needs and formulating and implementing programmes for agricultural relief and rehabilitation, and formulating policies and investment frameworks favouring the transition from emergency relief to reconstruction and development in food and agriculture;
strengthening local capacities and coping mechanisms to reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience.
20. As part of its Medium-Term Plan (2002-2007), the Organization is also improving inter-departmental coordination through defining Disaster Prevention, Mitigation and Preparedness and Post-Emergency Relief and Rehabilitation as a priority area for inter-departmental action (PAIA). This should enhance its capacity for long-term planning for disaster mitigation, such as it has been done at the request of the UN Secretary-General by an Inter-Agency Task Force on the UN Response to Long Term Food Security, Agricultural Development and Related Aspects in the Horn of Africa2 , for which FAO provided the secretariat.
4. THE EMERGENCY SEQUENCE FROM RELIEF TO DEVELOPMENT Ð HOW FAO PREPARES FOR AND RESPONDS TO EMERGENCIES
21. Interventions in emergencies can be best described in terms of a sequence of events, sometimes referred to as a disaster cycle, with distinct phases3 , each requiring different action. Although the types of action, which make up the emergency sequence may be distinct in nature, they do not need to be so in time. Indeed, the need for some to run concurrently is now widely recognized. The continuity of objectives throughout the emergency sequence Ð a relief-development continuum Ð implies that development objectives should not and cannot be set aside during emergencies. Even in the gravest of emergencies, it is possible to adopt an approach to relief interventions, which reinforces rather than bypasses or undermines civil society and local capacities for recovery and development. Similarly, the need to avoid future emergencies is an important objective during recovery and ongoing development.
22. Prevention refers to measures designed to prevent natural or socio/political events and processes from resulting in disasters characterised by destruction and loss. Specifically, as most conflict-prone countries have sizeable rural populations that depend on agriculture, the promotion of agricultural and rural development is paramount, not only to foster development and food security overall, but also as a powerful way to reduce the risks of conflict in the first place. FAO activities in this area are designed to reduce vulnerability to such events/processes in the food and
2 FAO, The Elimination of Food Insecurity in the Horn of Africa, Rome 2000. 3 The eight types of action, or phases, of the emergency sequence, are (1) Prevention, (2) Preparedness, (3) Early warning, (4) Impact and needs assessment immediately following a disaster, (5) Relief, when immediate humanitarian assistance is required, (6) Rehabilitation, when the first attempts to rebuild the rural livelihood system take place, (7) Reconstruction, when the destroyed infrastructure is replaced and investment can take place, and (8) Sustainable recovery, when conditions permit to return to a development process.
360 agriculture sectors. Examples include: crop and livestock diversification, plant breeding for short cycle crops resistant to drought/diseases and pest attacks, improved rangeland and water management, soil conservation, improved coastal fishing practices, forest management, integrated pest and disease control measures. These disaster prevention measures are geared towards reducing the likelihood of disasters occurring due to causal factors of different types: longer-term processes such as droughts or sudden events such as floods, natural or human induced. They often form part of longer-term programmes to promote resilience and sustainability.
23. An important objective of the Food Insecurity and Vulnerability Information and Mapping System (FIVIMS) initiative is to remedy to the lack of information about food insecure and vulnerable people. FIVIMS, with the Secretariat at FAO, aims to raise awareness about food security issues, improve the quality of national food security-related data and analysis and establish a common database and an information exchange network. Improved information can be actively used to produce better results in efforts to reduce the number of undernourished and achieve food security for all. FIVIMS is an essential platform to promote appropriate information systems and approaches for prevention of food and agriculture emergencies.
24. FAO’s Special Programme for Food Security specifically aims at reducing vulnerability and improving agricultural productivity through better water control, sustainable intensification and diversification of production and removal of socio-economic constraints.
25. Preparedness refers to measures taken in advance to establish capacities and mechanisms to respond rapidly and effectively to disasters when they do occur, and thereby reduce the intensity or scale of any resultant emergency.
26. FAO provides technical assistance for the development of disaster preparedness plans to respond to disasters of different kinds, for the establishment of institutional structures for the implementation of these plans, and for staff training. It also provides assistance for the development of information systems, including national and regional early warning and food information systems as well as food insecurity and vulnerability mapping, and for policies and management guidelines for food security reserve stocks. In designing and implementing these information systems, the involvement of a variety of development institutions, which are active in at-risk areas, contributes to provide quick, flexible and integrated responses to locally identified needs. These measures aim at reducing the need for costly relief when disaster strikes.
27. Early warning is the provision of early and relevant information on potential or actual disasters and their impacts. FAO’s Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) continuously monitors the food supply and demand situation around the world, and reports to the international community through its system of regular and ad hoc reports. This, and other early warning work carried out by the regional and national early warning and food information systems which FAO supports, plays a crucial role in ensuring that timely and appropriate action can be taken when an
361 emergency arises. In 2000, GIEWS carried out 36 crop and food supply assessment missions to affected countries (up to 30 in 1999), often jointly with WFP, and issued 43 Special Alerts/Reports to the international community, highlighting the impacts of the disasters on food production and livelihoods of rural communities, with recommendations of actions to be taken. These Alerts/Reports were instrumental in the mobilization of international assistance to the affected countries and were the basis for Emergency Operations (EMOPs) jointly approved by FAO and WFP, worth over US$ 1.43 billion in 2000. FAO also monitors, provides early warning on, and acts to control outbreaks of transboundary diseases and migratory pests through its EMPRES programme (Emergency Prevention System for Transboundary Animal and Plant Pests and Diseases).
28. A typical FAO’s prevention activity in Asia over the recent past is the support provided in 1999 to the “Preparation for a Comprehensive Flood Loss Prevention and Management Plan for the Agricultural Sector” in LAO PDR. The aim was to support a national strategy for flood loss prevention and a national preparedness action plan to address the problems of recurrent flooding of the Mekong River and its tributaries. The project undertook the survey of flood prone areas along the Mekong river and its tributaries and initiated activities to elaborate on the various options to better monitor floods and to define measures to reduce the effects of flood damages. A regional workshop organized under the auspices of the project provided an opportunity for specialists and senior officials from Laos and riparian counties in the region to exchange experiences and to assess areas for further cooperation and support.
29. Impact and needs assessment involves assessing the nature and magnitude of a disaster once it occurs, its impact on affected populations and on agriculture, livestock, fisheries and forestry, and the type and extent of emergency and immediate rehabilitation assistance that is required.
30. FAO mounts missions to carry out such assessments which aim at determining needs both for food assistance and for emergency assistance in agriculture. For the former, crop and food supply assessment missions are mounted by FAO’s Global Information and Early Warning Service (GIEWS) in conjunction with the World Food Programme (WFP). FAO’s Special Relief Operations Service (TCOR) assesses the impact of disasters and emergency assistance requirements for the agriculture sector. TCOR’s specialists evaluate the priority needs and the kind of assistance to be provided.
31. Types of assessment conducted by FAO alone, by joint FAO/WFP missions or by FAO experts participating in UN-led assessment missions, may cover the impact of the disaster on:
national food supply and demand food security and nutritional situation of affected groups needs for international food assistance capacity for agricultural production in the affected area
362 needs for agricultural relief to enable production to resume quickly needs for longer-term rehabilitation and reconstruction measures.
32. Assessments are quickly disseminated to the international community to enable timely and effective donor responses, and are used as a basis for FAO’s own relief and rehabilitation efforts.
33. In 2000-2001 FAO’s Special Relief Operations Service fielded missions in numerous Asian countries following natural or man-made disasters. This included China for which a large rehabilitation programme was formulated following the most severe floods of the century that occurred in 1998, but also in India, Sri Lanka, Cambodia, Vietnam, Lao PDR, the Philippines, Indonesia, Afghanistan or Azerbaijan, Tajikistan or Iran. Almost every single country of the region was affected by a disaster over the recent past and assisted by FAO with an assessment of the situation and the needs.
34. Relief usually refers to the provision of assistance to save lives in the immediate wake of a disaster. This includes search and rescue, evacuation, distribution of food and water, temporary provision of sanitation, health care and shelter, and the restoration of immediate personal security. FAO’s role in this phase includes joint approval by FAO’s Director-General, often on the basis of an assessment made by FAO/WFP missions, of WFP Emergency Operations for food assistance, and support for control of food quality and safety.
35. FAO also includes ‘agricultural relief’ in its definition of relief, referring to agricultural rehabilitation assistance provided on an emergency basis. Such relief is aimed at rapidly reducing dependence on emergency food assistance, and providing a basis for “life sustaining” and longer-term rehabilitation of food production capacities. This assistance covers the provision of agricultural essential inputs such as seeds, tools, fertilisers and livestock and veterinary supplies, to enable affected populations to resume basic productive activities quickly Ð in time for the next agricultural season where possible.
36. Agricultural relief is not, however, limited to the supply of agricultural inputs. Special Agricultural Relief Operations also include the provision of services and technical advice to support the coordination of United Nations agencies or non-governmental organizations involved in emergency agricultural assistance.
37. When the situation calls for it, FAO establishes an Emergency Coordination Unit on the spot for agricultural assistance. Such a unit constitutes a link between the Government, donors and the NGO community as well as a bridge to the rest of the UN community. It provides advice to humanitarian organizations involved in agricultural programmes and enhances Government capacity at national or local level to deal with agriculture rehabilitation programmes. It assists the Government in developing a national capacity to move beyond the emergency phase towards recovery and rehabilitation. Finally, FAO’s coordination units assist in monitoring and assessing the
363 crop situation and the evolving agricultural needs in the country. The FAO coordination units provide a focal point for all emergency activities related to agriculture and facilitate the coordination of activities of international and national NGOs to avoid gaps and make sure that there is no overlapping in the assistance to agriculture. Today, FAO has set up emergency coordination units in over 15 countries/regions, mostly in Africa but also in Asia regions such as in Tajikistan and East Timor.
38. FAO’s agricultural relief programmes carried out in 2000 in Asia Region entail:
Afghanistan, emergency delivery of drought-resistant wheat and chickpea seeds and fertiliser to drought-affected farmers;
Cambodia/Vietnam, emergency supply of rice and vegetable seeds to the flood affected households;
Mongolia, provision of animal health inputs and animal feed to assist the affected households in the snowstorm Ð affected areas;
India, emergency supply of agricultural inputs (tools, seeds) in cyclone- affected districts of Orissa;
East Timor, emergency provision of rice, maize and vegetable seed to conflict-affected farmers;
Pakistan, emergency provision of essential livestock feed and animal health inputs to drought-affected farmers in Baluchistan.
39. Rehabilitation, reconstruction and sustainable recovery refer respectively to measures to help restore the livelihoods, assets and production levels of emergency- affected communities, to re-build essential infrastructure, and to restore the means of production as well as institutions and services destroyed or made non-operational by a disaster.
40. FAO plays a key role in following-up immediate agricultural relief with assistance in restoring extension, veterinary, plant-protection, seed production and input supply services and institutions where these have been disrupted, and the physical reconstruction of agricultural infrastructure such as dams and irrigation systems, markets and crop storage facilities. FAO also provides policy and strategy support for recovery and development programmes in the food and agriculture sectors.
41. This assistance is geared towards bringing the need for relief to an end and enabling development to proceed. It includes activities that help make development sustainable by preventing and preparing for the possibility of further disasters and emergencies. Major emphasis is on strengthening the coordination of locally active emergency and development institutions and in encouraging the participation of the affected population, in designing and implementing interventions that promote household food security and nutrition. Priority is given to the needs of food-insecure households and towards promoting sustainable and healthy livelihoods.
364 42. While emergency relief interventions are still under way, FAO takes stock of the overall situation of disaster-affected countries with a view to rehabilitation, reconstruction and sustainable recovery. Needs for rehabilitation measures and for sustainable recovery of growth and development in the food and agricultural sectors in the medium to long term are assessed, with a view to reducing susceptibility to further disasters and emergencies.
43. In post-conflict situations, agricultural policy requires the balancing of relief activities with development efforts. As far as possible, the emphasis should be on long-term development objectives, even if there are constraints to promoting them effectively, such as a lack of institutional capacity.
44. In response to requests from countries, FAO provides assistance to establish an effective policy and institutional framework for future sector growth and development. Within this framework, FAO identifies and formulates programmes and projects for donor funding. This may include programmes to assist resettlement and reintegration of refugees, the displaced and ex-combatants.
45. A typical example of support from FAO to assist member countries to build a framework for priority investment is the work carried out since 1994 to review the development options for the agriculture sector of Cambodia which was based on a clear definition of investment priorities, which led to the formulation of “Agricultural Strategies and Policy Framework for Sustainable Food Security and Poverty Alleviation” which has been incorporated in the country’s 2nd-Five-Year Socio- Economic Development Plan 2001-2005.
46. These approaches, taken together, can reduce the risk of a natural disaster becoming a human tragedy.
47. The world may never be free from disaster. But we can improve our ability to be better prepared, respond and rebuild. FAO is ready to play its role in that process.
5. “RELIEF-DEVELOPMENT CONTINUUM” – DEBATES AND ISSUES
48. In previous sections, we have described the sequence of events, referred to as the disaster cycle, with distinct phases, each requiring different sets of actions to create the movement from relief to rehabilitation, to rebuild rural livelihood systems and to restore resilience. In this chapter, we will attempt to review some of the on-going debates and issues attached to the this linear continuum, running from relief through rehabilitation and reconstruction, to development, in order to better understand the problems related to its implementation.
The limits of the “continuum” model
49. There are some problems with the discourse described in the “continuum” model. Firstly, this simple, linear process of predefined phases does not always occur
365 through time. Agricultural development is often initiated while relief is still taking place, and vice versa (one could speak of “contiguum”). Secondly, the wrong understanding of the continuum creates artificial partitions and a stop-start process in intervention amongst donor agencies and also within the various Organizations. Relief agencies commonly associate agriculture to development. They are usually not inclined to fund agricultural proposal. Thirdly, the “continuum” model tends to create the false assumption that there could be a natural institutional transition. For example, in complex emergencies when the existing Ministry of Agriculture Ð the source of agricultural governance Ð has collapsed, this assumption could be somehow naïve.
“Humanitarian/relief ” versus “developmental” approaches Ð the missing link
50. Debates are taking place between humanitarian/relief and development practitioners. They focus on core principles of interventions often difficult to reconcile, making the transition from life saving to sustainability and to the restoration of rural livelihood a difficult exercise.
51. Humanitarian agencies will argue that the “continuum” approach does not take into account the protracted nature of a disaster, that it creates a slow onset to disasters such as drought or complex emergencies. Critiques may also argue that the continuum concept, which tries to link disaster planning into development planning, may jeopardize the core principles of humanitarian interventions, namely the principles of shared humanity, neutrality, impartiality and independence. Finally, in situations where resources are lacking, humanitarian/relief agencies may question the allocation of funds, fearing that their life saving budgets may decline.
52. Those focussing on development will note that humanitarian aid frequently fuels conflict. They argue that if aid does not build peace, it should be rejected. They may also contend instances where humanitarian relief refused to see the opportunities for development, where the over-provision of relief food depressed local agricultural activity, have helped fuel the conflict and retarded agricultural development.
53. Relief projects differ from rehabilitation and development projects. This disparity makes the transition from the former to the latter a difficult exercise. On one hand, relief projects tend to provide visibility (particularly of the implementing agency) and to emphasise on external solutions and rapidity of intervention in a confused and often insecure environment. Relief projects are often put into action with little information on the situation before the crisis and on the beneficiaries. Sustainability is usually impossible and the intervention ends when funding stops.
54. On the other hand, development projects tend to have a rural livelihood perspective. They usually are embedded in local structures. They also emphasize on coordination, synergies and partnerships for planning interventions. They operate with a broad knowledge of the situation. The criteria for selecting beneficiaries are rigorous and transparent. All interventions aim towards sustainability, the key to the exit strategy.
366 55. The approach to measure the effectiveness and efficiency of interventions also differs. While relief projects primarily measure the impact and cost effectiveness of the assistance, development projects focus on the expected outcome and cost benefit analysis.
56. Finally, without understanding, accepting and drawing lessons from the major “cultural” differences between these two modes of intervention, which often coexist in post disaster situation, and from their implications in terms of mode of operation, it is difficult, if not impossible, to link disaster response and development planning.
When the basics are not met
57. The transition from relief to development can easily be hampered. For example, the inadequacy of the funding mechanisms and the absence of a coordinated planning system can easily obstruct the continuum or create a stopping effect. These basic factors should not be underestimated.
58. Inadequate funding mechanisms and procedures Ð the commonly known issue of “budget lines” still too often impact the continuum. Despite the fact that donor countries increasingly recognize the importance that development activities should be initiated as early as possible following a disaster, their funding criteria are still designed for humanitarian assistance interventions. The current mechanisms tend to focus more on the delivery of “inputs” than “technical assistance”. It is no secret that while humanitarian funds are relatively easy to mobilize under the “media” effect, it is not so for development activities, especially when the media are gone and already focusing on another disaster, and the international attention is fading out. In addition, the resource mobilisation for relief operations is rarely involved in the political regulations, as it is usually the case for development aid. Finally the cycle of appraisal of relief interventions is reduced to the minimum while for development projects it may take years.
59. Finally, the lack of a coordinated planning process also alters the continuum. Their is currently a weak coordination between the existing planning tools used in emergency situations and “normal” development situation; the UN Consolidated Appeal process (CAP) on one side and the Common Country assessment (CCA) and United nations development assistance framework (UNDAF) on the other. Without coordination in the formulation of these two major exercises, it is difficult to plan the transition.
The way forward
60. Support to agriculture rehabilitation offers the possibility to move from humanitarian assistance and relief interventions back to development initiatives. It proposes not only a return to the status quo before the crisis, but a return to a situation of normalcy, where development can take place, by addressing the root causes of the
367 crisis. It offers a natural way of handling the transition along the continuum from relief to development, in countries and regions where the vast majority of the population continues to live in rural areas and obtain their source of livelihood from agriculture, livestock or fisheries, and where agriculture will remain for many years the key sector for food security at national and household level, the main source of employment, and a major component of national growth development product.
61. The way forward lies in a better form of preparedness. As a state of mind, that would allow more predictable and appropriate responses when disaster strike. This means not only drawing lessons from what has been done up to now, but really learning from these lessons and from there, building global capacities, internationally and nationally, in order to be better prepared to respond to emergencies.
368 The Strategic Framework for FAO 2000-2015 Corporate Strategy Component A. 3 “Preparedness for, and effective and sustainable response to, food and agricultural emergencies” While the preferred means of dealing with emergencies is prevention, food and agricultural emergencies will continue to occur as a result of natural disasters such as droughts, floods, fires, and pests and diseases and human-induced disasters such as war and internal conflict. Unforeseen disruptions to financial and economic systems can also result in emergencies that have similar adverse impacts on local populations. Often the people most severely affected by disasters live in rural areas, but the disruption of agricultural and food systems can have serious consequences for both rural and urban populations, and it is generally the resource-poor who are most vulnerable. The challenge is to increase the resilience and capacity of countries and their populations to cope with the impacts of disasters that affect national and household food security and, when disasters do occur, to contribute to emergency operations that foster the transition from relief to recovery of the food and agricultural sectors.
The components include:
strengthening disaster preparedness and the ability to mitigate the impact of emergencies that affect food security and the productive capacities of the rural population;
forecasting and providing early warning of adverse conditions in the food and agricultural sectors and of impending food emergencies, including monitoring plant and animal pests and diseases;
assessing needs and formulating and implementing programmes for agricultural relief and rehabilitation, and formulating policies and investment frameworks favouring the transition from emergency relief to reconstruction and development in food and agriculture; and
strengthening local capacities and coping mechanisms through guiding the choice of agricultural practices, technologies and support services, to reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience.
FAO’s comparative advantage in humanitarian assistance is directly derived from the expertise, knowledge and experience it has accumulated as a technical agency. It has a demonstrated technical capability for natural resource monitoring and for facilitating, with others, international efforts in forecasting, prevention and mitigation of natural calamities. Within the UN system, it has recognized leadership for early warning of food shortages through the Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS), as well as for its Emergency Prevention System (EMPRES) for transboundary animal and plant pests and diseases,
369 including control of locust and other migratory pests. It has the expertise required to assess relief needs and provide assistance for the early recovery of food and agricultural productive capacities, which is vital for affected countries with a predominant agricultural sector. It can therefore take the lead in the preparation of targeted rural sector recovery and development options and the identification of priority projects for investment. By focusing at the same time on the household food security and nutritional well-being of affected populations, FAO is in a position to provide a comprehensive approach to recovery and rehabilitation.
FAO conducts, jointly with WFP, crop and food supply assessments, as well as household food security and nutritional status assessments, and has well-established links with all UN agencies concerned with humanitarian assistance, including OCHA, WFP, WHO, UNICEF, UNEP and UNHCR as well as with regional organizations, national governments and international and national NGOs, particularly for early warning and food and nutrition assessments. Response to emergencies and early post-disaster recovery assistance is provided within the framework of emergency aid coordination and management mechanisms established within the UN system (including the Security Council), based on the Inter-Agency Standing Committee (IASC) and the Executive Committee for Humanitarian Assistance (ECHA) and including major cooperating humanitarian aid agencies (governments, UN agencies, the Red Cross Movement, NGOs and donors). In the field, NGOs are also included as FAO’s main implementing partners, particularly in complex emergencies. Resources for this type of work will continue to be sought from bilateral and multilateral funding sources as well as from regional and international financing institutions committed to providing support to reconstruction efforts. FAO is involved in every phase of the emergency sequence. The main forms of FAO’s intervention include monitoring and early warning, needs assessment, the provision of immediate relief and early rehabilitation, and disaster prevention, preparedness and mitigation. Furthermore, FAO provides technical assistance and training for the planning and management of sustainable recovery and rehabilitation of rural populations and production systems to ensure food security, nutritional well being and sustainable livelihoods of affected households.
Source: FAO Ð Strategic Framework 2000-2015.
370 Annex XVIII APDC/01/14/A
LEVERAGING SUPPORT FOR DISASTER MANAGEMENT WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO FOOD AND NUTRITION ASSISTANCE*
ABSTRACT
Disasters aggravate pre-existing situations of precariousness with regard to food insecurity and often accentuate conditions of food scarcity. The loss of past development achievements, combined with a diversion of resources from development to disaster management may pose a serious setback to a country’s development.
The paper describes how all disasters have an impact on household food security and nutrition. Nutritional status results from a combination of factors classically clustered into household food security, health and care aspects. All of these factors are affected to a greater or lesser degree in a crisis situation and/or its aftermath. As malnutrition results in increased morbidity and mortality in all age groups, it is therefore a key concern in disaster management. Good nutrition is also a prerequisite for effective productive activities and economic development, and should therefore be a priority in rehabilitation. The paper further discusses the impact of disasters on Household Food Security and Nutrition of affected communities. It gives guidelines for the incorporation of nutrition considerations into disaster management and presents recommendations for improving the impact of agriculture rehabilitation activities through increased attention to household food security and nutrition as a means to improve design, targeting and monitoring of activities.
* Prepared by B.K. Nandi, RAP Senior Food and Nutrition Officer.
371 CONTENTS
Page 1. INTRODUCTION ...... 373
2. IMPACT OF DISASTERS ON HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION ...... 374
3. INCORPORATION OF NUTRITION CONSIDERATIONS INTO DISASTER MANAGEMENT ...... 376
4. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 378
372 1. INTRODUCTION
1. Disasters, irrespective of their origin (natural or man-made) and their type (rapid-onset events like earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, flash floods and hurricanes or slow moving events like droughts or harsh winters) leave their deleterious impact on land and its people. The magnitude of the impact of disasters in terms of loss of life and human suffering undoubtedly depends on the extent and intensity of damage and destruction they cause; but it is the vulnerable and poorest households in the affected population which suffer most, both in theimmediate emergency and the mid and long term recovery phases.
2. The Asia-Pacific Region is prone to natural disasters. Most of Southern Asia and the South Pacific islands lie in the regular path of tropical cyclones and are particularly susceptible to hurricanes and storms. They are also lying along weak areas of the earth’s crust and are particularly affected by earthquakes and volcanic activities.
3. Heavy rains and floods regularly inflict severe damage in several countries, especially Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, Vietnam and some parts of India and the Philippines. Thousands of people have been killed while crops and infra-structure have been heavily damaged. In Cambodia drought affected crop production, and in Vietnam a combination of drought and subsequent floods damaged crops and property. Droughts and floods, like in Fiji, often occur in succession.
4. In October 1999, a series of cyclones including the one in India (Orissa) and Bangladesh (Chittagong) devastated the countries, killing over ten thousand people and making at least 15 million others temporarily homeless and 2.25 million dependent on external food aid.
5. The devastating earthquake that struck Gujarat in January 2001 killed at least 19,000 people, injured another 166,000 and made more than a million homeless. Earthquakes and tsunamis also took a heavy toll in the Chinese province of Sechuan, in Taiwan and in several Pacific islands.
6. Further North or in high altitudes, harsh winters wrecked havoc among pastoralists in Mongolia and Afghanistan and aggravated food scarcity in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
7. Disasters aggravate pre-existing situations of precariousness and often accentuate conditions of food scarcity. The loss of past development achievement, combined with a diversion of resources from development to disaster management may pose a serious set back to a country development.
8. All disasters have an impact on household food security and nutrition. Nutritional status ultimately results from a combination of factors classically clustered
373 into household food security, health and care aspects, all of which are affected to a greater or lesser degree in a crisis situation and/or its aftermath: crops and food stores may be destroyed, commercial systems and social services may be disrupted, households and community structures break apart, people may have to leave their homes and crowd into unhygienic shelters. As a result affected households are no longer in a position to carry out the productive and reproductive tasks that are essential for a sustainable livelihood. Unless appropriate mitigation measures are put in place, the prevalence of malnutrition among the most vulnerable population groups is likely to rise, often in the weeks or months following the emergency itself, as households spiral down towards destitution.
9. Malnutrition results in increased morbidity and mortality in all age groups and is therefore a key concern in emergency management. Good nutrition is also a prerequisite for effective productive activities and economic development, and should therefore be a priority in rehabilitation. But nutrition is also an intersectoral issue which requires the collaboration of a variety of humanitarian and development institutions, thus leading to much needed improved co-ordination of stakeholders at local, national and international level. Indicators of nutritional status can constitute useful targeting tools, as well as effective monitoring and evaluation tools. It is therefore important that nutrition-related interventions be viewed and undertaken as an integral part of a comprehensive approach to emergency management in affected areas. Nutrition considerations should in particular be incorporated in disaster preparedness.
2. IMPACT OF DISASTERS ON HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION
10. Natural disasters, as well as man-made conflicts in rural areas, commonly affect the agricultural sector and hence the livelihood of people living in rural areas whether they are involved in food production Ð as farmers or labourers Ð or in post harvest activities. People may be displaced from their homes and means of making a living. Productive assets may be destroyed (or die or be eaten in the case of livestock), sold or stolen. The labour capacity of the household may decline because people die, are sick or handicapped or are malnourished. Food stores can be destroyed or damaged. Consumers can ultimately be affected through decreased food availability and/or increased prices.
11. Agricultural infra-structure including terraces and irrigation systems may be impaired; roads, bridges and communication systems can be destroyed, as well food processing and storage facilities. The impact in terms of marketing and food distribution systems can be compounded by high levels of speculation. Whole areas may face a long term setback in terms of food production and economic development. In order to survive, people often plunder existing natural resources (for fuelwood or charcoal) and cause irreversible damage to the environment. These compounding effects can be so severe and widespread that food availability at local or even national level is drastically reduced thereby endangering people’s access to food.
374 12. As a result, the availability of staple foods and the variety of foods grown by families is reduced; household incomes decrease while market prices rise; households have to face major expenses for rehabilitation purposes. The lack of adult labour can affect the capacity of families to pursue or engage in agriculture and/or to participate in public work programmes for rebuilding livelihoods. In pastoral populations, disaster and conflict may lead to loss of access to pastures and water, resulting in loss of livestock, income and access to food. As a result household food security can become highly uncertain in disaster or conflict situations.
13. Although natural disasters indiscriminately affect the local population, this impact will clearly depend on people’s livelihoods systems, and within those, the most affected households are usually the poorest ones as their ability to cope is more limited.
14. The absence, poor quality or cost of health services, together with high risk of infectious diseases can put people whose living conditions and food consumption are inadequate in a vicious cycle of malnutrition and infections. Overcrowding and lack of adequate sanitation and water supplies can lead to rapid spread of disease in refugee or transit camps. Children face the greatest health risks and suffer the highest death rates.
15. Risks of consumption of contaminated foods increase, because of affected stocks, unhygienic food preparations due to a lack of water, or water contamination and the possible lack of fuel and cooking utensils and facilities.
16. Mental health can also become a major issue in crisis situations, adding extra stress and/or decreasing the productive and caring capacity of the household.
17. Adequate care is vital for protection and well-being of infants and children, as well as the sick and elderly. Disasters have a devastating impact on the caring capacities of households, which may be directly affected by death and injury, as well as the diversion of time from care to basic survival, recovery and reconstruction. Families seek the best way to cope with the crisis and protection of livelihoods might compete with the time devoted to childcare and feeding.
18. Children may die because their families or other caregivers are unable to provide the food and care necessary for their survival. Orphans may be incorporated in other households and suffer discrimination and exploitation as well as bereavement.
19. In times of crisis, food consumption levels are the first to be reduced by the households: there is a decrease in food diversity, as people reorient their diet and give priority to cheap staple foods, all or selected members of the household may reduce the food quantity per meal or reduce the number of meals per day.
20. As a result, all forms of malnutrition can be found in the aftermath of natural disasters. In addition to protein-energy malnutrition, which is the most commonly recognised form of malnutrition, a number of other nutrient deficiency disorders
375 (anaemia, Vitamin A Deficiency (VAD) and Iodine Deficiency Disorders (IDD), scurvy, pellagra and beriberi) are often encountered in populations during the aftermath of disasters, especially among populations that are entirely dependent on food aid for a prolonged period. A high proportion of displaced people are mothers and infants, who are biologically considered the most vulnerable to malnutrition even in non-emergency situation.
21. In order to deal with the crisis, households usually adopt a variety of coping strategies to fulfill their essential needs, and in particular food. Consumption of wild foods increases. Crops are consumed before reaching maturity. The best grains, roots and tubers, which the farmers usually save as “seeds” for future crop, can be consumed. Contaminated food stocks might still be consumed due to lack of alternative. Livestock may be sold or eaten. Adults may leave in search of work. Children may be sent away.
3. INCORPORATION OF NUTRITION CONSIDERATIONS INTO DISASTER MANAGEMENT
22. In order to mitigate the negative impact of disasters on food security and nutrition, it is important to gain a good understanding of livelihood systems in at-risk areas, in order to strengthen their resilience to prevailing recurring disasters, identify the most vulnerable households, and strengthen the capacity of local and national institutions to assess and address the consequences of disasters in a timely way.
23. As a basis for appropriate planning, it is also important to gain a good understanding of the effects of previous disasters on those factors which affect nutritional status and, eventually, of the food and nutrition impact of previous emergency relief and rehabilitation programmes in the area.
24. Particular attention should be given to prevailing coping mechanisms. Some may well be appropriate and compatible with the protection of food security and nutrition, and should be strengthened and encouraged. Some may however be detrimental in the long term as they may lead to contaminated or toxic, unbalanced and insufficient diets, undermine sustainability of livelihoods, quality of care and lead to a deterioration of the health situation. This should be understood in order to identify and promote alternative strategies.
25. Traditional farming and livelihoods systems commonly focus on minimising risk. The importance of a risk-aversion strategy has not always been appreciated by government policies and extension workers who often have aimed to increase production of specific varieties. This has resulted in a more limited number of crops being planted and an increased vulnerability of the farming system to natural disasters. Multi-cropping systems are both more resilient and conducive to a more diversified diets and should therefore be encouraged. The promotion of home-gardening for improved nutrition has proven in particular to be a cost effective way to improve the
376 diets of households, and specially of those, such as women-headed households, who may face significant time, labour and land constraints.
26. Improved food processing can help prolong shelf-life of foods and therefore increase the duration of their availability at household level. Processed roots and tubers, and smoked fish and fermented dairy products Ð where they are available Ð can also be marketed. They will fetch higher prices than cereal grains, contribute income and insure against food insecurity if there are opportunities for marketing. Fruits and vegetables supply essential vitamins and minerals and surpluses can be dried and preserved for the hunger season. The production and sale of local weaning foods can provide income-generating activities for women as well as improve child feeding and timesaving alternatives. Such techniques can thus strengthen resilience of poor households and improve food availability in the event of a disaster.
27. In most situations, it is important to improve care at household level through appropriate information and to promote effective community-based care systems so that households can make a living while ensuring that essential domestic tasks are carried out. Care issues become crucial in disaster situations activities and all efforts should be made to prevent the disintegration of families and social networks during or after the crisis.
28. Community-based organisations should be strengthened to enable them to cope with recurrent natural disasters, minimise their impact on food security, care and health (through prevention, preparedness and appropriate emergency planning) and monitor the situation. Nutrition education and communication will play an essential role in raising awareness and empowering communities to make the best of local foods and opportunities. Surprisingly however, at a time when traditional knowledge is of little help or relevance to people who face major changes in their lifestyles and environments, such activities are given low priority in humanitarian efforts.
29. Local institutions (governments and NGOs) should be jointly trained and encouraged to promote and protect food security and nutrition in at risk areas, with particular attention to the most vulnerable households. The formulation and implementation of local food and nutrition strategies would provide an enabling context for appropriate disaster management. Systematic partnerships between the health, agriculture and education sectors should be encouraged.
30. The provision of food, water, shelter and medical treatment is usually needed to help cover essential needs in the immediate aftermath of a natural disaster. Preparedness planning should ensure that appropriate procedures are set up and rehearsed to ensure that these are provided in a timely and appropriate way to the people who need it. Planning for food should include processing, cooking (e.g. stoves, cooking fuel), preparation and handling aspects in order to ensure appropriate consumption of safe food. Communities and local institutions should play an active role in setting up and implementing such procedures and be given the appropriate information and training.
377 31. Immediate relief interventions do not provide a sustainable solution to many emergencies. It is important that people become able, as soon as possible, to resume productive activities to again become self-reliant. Assistance should therefore not be limited to simply addressing the needs caused by the latest disaster, but should also aim at strengthening a sustainable development process Ð by ensuring an appropriate management of the environment and the involvement of all stakeholders in the affected area Ð and limiting the impact of future disasters. Food-for-work programmes may be useful to assist households during the rehabilitation period and should focus on bridging local food gaps and facilitating activities conducive to increased food security and better nutrition.
32. Information needs cannot be covered by one-time assessments in the aftermath of a natural disaster. Nutrition impacts are generally most acute several months after the event as some households fail to cope with the consequences. At the time, interest in the crisis has shifted to more recent disasters elsewhere and the necessary assistance is no longer available. Simple food and nutrition information and surveillance systems should be systematically set up in disaster-prone areas. These will contribute to improved preparedness and contingency planning, early warning, emergency response and rehabilitation through identification of local-specific constraints and indicators as well as targeting and monitoring of at-risk households. Specific attention should be given to disaster prone areas in national food insecurity and vulnerability information and mapping systems (FIVIMS).
4. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
33. In the last years, increasing emphasis has been given in FAO and other institutions to people-centred and integrated approaches. World Food Summit has adopted the goal of food security for all, whether in development or emergency situations. Emphasis is now on ensuring access to appropriate diets and sustainable livelihoods and not only on food production. FAO is developing a broader role in emergencies, in order to assist vulnerable households and complement the activities of other institutions (government, NGOs, UN agencies).
34. Disasters usually have a significant impact on household food security and nutrition of affected populations. In order to improve the impact of agriculture rehabilitation activities increasing attention should therefore being given to household food security and nutrition as a means to improve design, targeting and monitoring of activities. This requires and is therefore conducive to increased co-ordination with the UN system. The protection and promotion of nutrition requires a similar process at all stages of disaster management and will therefore contribute to ensuring a continuum approach.
35. An argument could also be made that the systematic development of local food and nutrition strategies in disaster-prone areas would in itself strengthen the resilience of existing livelihood systems, decrease the vulnerability of at-risk households and
378 strengthen capacity of both communities and local institutions to prevent, prepare for, address and mitigate the negative impact of natural disasters.
36. The basis of such strategies would be community-centred nutrition programmes in which food-based interventions would be integrated with health and care activities for supporting, safeguarding and improving household food security and nutrition.
37. It is therefore recommended that attention to household food security and nutrition issues be systematically incorporated at all stages of disaster management. At present, malnutrition is more often used as a fund-raising argument than as a framework for a sustainable and integrated response to the needs of the affected population.
38. Safeguarding the nutritional status of the population requires a holistic and proactive approach, which implies more than food distribution and health protection. Action is called for in the area of environment, population, economic and human development, land and water management, production and trade, services, human rights, governance, empowerment and growth of civil society.
379
(380 blank) Annex XIX APDC/01/14/B
LEVERAGING SUPPORT FOR DISASTER MANAGEMENT WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO WOMEN: A REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE*
ABSTRACT
Gendered development processes, roles and social milieus impact women and men differently in disasters, with women bearing the heavier burden. Despite the emergence of Gender and Development as a framework for analysis, and the designation of women as a vulnerable population group by Vulnerability Analysis, gender concerns continue to be inadequately addressed by disaster management theory and practice. This paper develops an engendered regional perspective on disaster management. To this end it draws on the gendered experience of countries in the region Ð more specifically on the cyclonic disasters of April 1991 and May 19971 in coastal districts2 of South Bangladesh Ð lessons from which are applicable to other parts of the Asian region. The paper uncovers the specific socially determined vulnerabilities and capacities of women and men in these disasters3. It highlights the greater vulnerability of poor rural women and explores the structural basis for this, including the inadequate treatment of gender concerns by disaster management practitioners. It suggests gender-responsive policy and programme interventions. In doing so, it draws on and shares lessons learnt from creative community-based gender interventions in the region, arguing for the institutionalization of these as a step towards sustainable, disaster-resilient, gender-responsive development.
* Prepared by Jean D’Cunha, UNIFEM, East and Southeast Asia Regional Office, Bangkok. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author’s and not necessarily those of FAO.
381 CONTENTS
Page
1. INTRODUCTION ...... 383 1.1 Geography, climate, disaster proneness ...... 383 1.2 The socio-economic context of Bangladesh and selected sites .. 383 1.3 Gender relations in Bangladesh and the selected sites ...... 384
2. GENDERED VULNERABILITIES AND CAPACITIES IN DISASTER ...... 385 2.1 The immediate pre disaster phase ...... 386 2.2 During disaster...... 387 2.3 Post disaster ...... 389
3. WOMEN AS SURVIVORS: SPECIAL STRENGTHS AND CAPACITIES ...... 391
4. MAINSTREAM DISASTER PRACTICE: ENHANCING WOMEN’S VULNERABILITIES AND CONCEALING CAPACITIES ...... 391
5. INNOVATIVE COMMUNITY-BASED INITIATIVES BY DISASTER MANAGEMENT ORGANIZATIONS...... 393
6. AN ACTION AGENDA: ENGENDERING PRESENT INITIATIVES AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS ...... 394 6.1 Conceptual categories and tools of analysis ...... 395 6.2 Legal considerations ...... 397 6.3 Changes in social values and attitudes...... 397 6.4 Institutional changes ...... 398 6.5 Support services and infrastructure facilities...... 398 6.6 Collective action ...... 398
7. CONCLUSIONS ...... 399
NOTES ...... 400
REFERENCES ...... 402
382 1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 Geography, climate, disaster proneness
1. Bangladesh, a flat low-lying riverine country is located in northeast South Asia and is part of the humid tropics. Its 600 kilometer-long coastline touches the Bay of Bengal in the South. The country’s peculiar geography and climatic conditions make it one of the most disaster-prone locales in the world. The most common disasters are floods, riverbank erosions, tornadoes, thunderstorms, tropical cyclones and the accompanying surges that form in the Bay. But the most treacherous have been cyclones, responsible for the largest number of disaster-related deaths, particularly in villages in the coastal districts of South Bangladesh. The cyclones of 1970 and 1991 claimed 500,000 and 138,000 human lives respectively, in addition to the destruction of other life forms and infrastructure. The largest numbers of casualties and deaths were those of women, children and the aged. More than half of the 138,000 deaths in 1991 were reportedly from this more vulnerable population groups (Haidar, Rahman, and Haq. 1991).
1.2 The socio-economic context of Bangladesh and selected sites
2. Bangladesh is also one of the largest of the world’s least developed countries. It had a Gross National Product per capita of only US$ 235 in 1996. Its Human Development Index at 0.371 fell among the least developed countries, which had an average HDI of 0.344. The Gender Development Index of 0.342, compared to 0.564 GDI for all developing countries (UNDP, Bangladesh, 1999). Bangladesh has one of the highest population densities (800 per sq km) in the world, an adverse population resource ratio and a slow pace of economic growth. Despite recent attempts at industrialization and poverty reduction measures, Bangladesh remains a predominantly agrarian economy with agriculture contributing 30 per cent to total GDP and 60 per cent to total employment (Mahbub ul Haq. 1997). An absolute number of 43 million people live below the poverty line of 2,122 Kcal. Nearly 60 per cent of households own less than 0.50 acres of land and 70 per cent own no productive assets. High levels of illiteracy, malnutrition, morbidity, mortality are related development problems.4
3. The southern coastal villages are by and large endowed with rich natural resources: fertile alluvial soil, rainfall and marine resources. This, coupled with the opportunity for small capital investments in certain economic activities, heightens the income-generating potential of these areas. However frequent cyclones and flash floods have a devastating impact on all life forms, property and infrastructure; exacerbate class, ethnic and gender disparities; and make long term recovery, especially for disadvantaged segments, of the population more difficult.
4. The dominant economic activities in these areas are farming and fishing. The main crops produced are paddy and wheat under the share cropping system. Salt and
383 betel nut production, artisanship, trading, petty vending, and employment in services as village teachers, as village-based NGO workers or in the town-based service sector are other important occupations.
5. A low level of infrastructure development marks the villages. Most houses are made of straw and bamboo and suffer severe damage during disasters. Villages have cyclone shelters, but lack proper, well-constructed approach roads especially to the shelter. This coupled with the inadequacy of shelters and their distance from homes makes access to shelters difficult. Apart from the elite few who use deep tube wells, most of the population uses shallow tube wells. The water is unclean and in the dry season water levels fall, making access to water difficult. Most villages lack sanitary latrines, electricity, accessible medical services and well-constructed poultry sheds and killas, specially prepared high ground for the protection of livestock during cyclones and floods.
6. Ownership and control over productive resources, income and wealth is skewed. The apex of the rural economic structure is dominated by agricultural landowners, salt pan owners, owners of fishing trawlers and hatcheries, moneylenders and bigger traders, while agricultural laborers, tenant farmers, salt pan workers, workers employed on large fishing trawlers and hatchery workers form the base of this hierarchy. Between these extremes are small peasant farmers, petty traders, and smaller independent fishermen. Activities are seasonal. Livelihood sources and resource ownership is diverse. An agricultural landowner may also own salt pans and hatcheries; and salt pan workers who engage in salt pan production during the dry season from October to February, may also hire themselves out as agricultural laborers during the farming season, and engage in some petty trade throughout the year.
7. Another component of the socio-economic hierarchy are the religious leaders, who not only own and control economic assets, but are the interpreters and keepers of the community’s religious conscience.
1.3 Gender relations in Bangladesh and the selected sites
8. The experience of impoverishment and deprivation in Bangladesh is more acute for women. Economic impoverishment interacts with male-oriented family and kinship, community, market and state structures and processes, marginalizing women more than men, economically, politically and socially.5
9. While patriarchal contexts concentrate power and authority in male hands both within and beyond the household, discriminatory patrilineal family and kinship systems accord girl children, unlike boy children, partial membership in natal families. Girls are transferred on marriage Ð their socially prescribed destiny Ð to their marital homes, where they are supposed to belong. They do not ensure the continuity of lineage, nor are they supposed to provide support of any kind to their natal families after marriage, this being perceived as a slur on family prestige. This results in a widespread culture
384 of son preference that leads to a greater investment of material and non-material resources in sons than in daughters. This coupled with gendered constructions of femininity Ð gender role and trait stereotypes Ð circumscribes a woman’s activities and possibilities, and marginalizes her from ownership, control over and access to material and non-material resources both within the household and in society at large. It is no historical accident, therefore, that in the coastal villages, (as in other parts of Bangladesh) ownership, control over and access to productive material resources like land, salt pans, hatcheries, credit, equipment and the produce, and material benefits accruing from economic activities related to these resources, rested with men.
10. Principles of patrilineal descent place considerable emphasis on the biological paternity of a child result in a stringent control over a woman’s sexuality and reproduction at every stage of her life. Bodily integrity and sexual purity are important features of virtuous womanhood, and determinants of familial and community honor. Men are entrusted with the task of guarding and protecting this virtue.
11. There have, however, been some transformations in the last couple of decades that have impacted different categories of women in Bangladesh differently. New economic opportunities have emerged for middle class urban women, drawing them into paid public employment. The growing landlessness and impoverishment of the majority of the rural population, and the consequent erosion of the basis of their productive role within household-based production, is increasingly compelling poor rural women’s entry into the labor market. However restrictions on women’s physical mobility have contributed to confining them to the informal, undervalued and invisible margins of the labor market. In general their paid work has represented an extension of their traditional roles. Employment in the export oriented garment industry, has been one option for poor women since the 1980s in urban areas. Domestic service, begging and prostitution are other alternatives.
12. It is this socio-economic, political and cultural landscape that frames women’s vulnerabilities and capacities in and in the aftermath of cyclonic disasters.
2. GENDERED VULNERABILITIES AND CAPACITIES IN DISASTER
13. The vulnerabilities and capacities of men and women in the cyclonic disasters of April 1991 and May 1997 are presented in terms of key issues and trends that emerge from the accounts of women and men in the disaster-affected villages and that of other stakeholders. They traverse various phases of the disaster cycle: the immediate pre-disaster phase; during disaster that includes evacuation and emergency shelter; and the post disaster phase that includes relief, rehabilitation, recovery and resettlement. The findings are not conclusive, but suggestive. They uncover issues for further investigation, important among which is an impact assessment establishing the interaction between gender and other social categories like class, religion etc.
385 2.1 The immediate pre disaster phase
14. In the cyclone of 1991, large numbers of women within the home or homestead died because warning signals did not reach them. In a highly sex-segregated society, warning information was transmitted through microphones, megaphones and radios (for those who possessed them), by men CPP volunteers to men in public spaces Ð main roads, markets, tea stalls Ð where men congregated, on the assumption that this would be communicated to the rest of the family. This by and large did not occur. For many women who did hear it, the warnings were not clearly audible, because of the wind sound and speed. Even when women clearly heard the warnings, they were ill-informed about cyclones, the nature and significance of warning signals, the kind of household and community-based measures to be taken at each signal; and the need for timely evacuation. They were dependent on male decision-making about the course of action to be adopted. Like the men, most ignored timely warnings believing that nothing would really happen because the previous cyclone of devastating proportions in 1970 had occurred nearly twenty-one years earlier and was therefore faint in collective memory. Many had never lived through a cyclone like this. As a result only twenty-five per cent of the population in badly affected coastal areas evacuated (Haidar, Rahman and Haq. 1991). Moreover, being a sex-segregated society, women did not move even when warned, fearful of being labelled bepurdah (loose) and incurring the wrath of their husbands and the community, if they ventured out, unescorted by male relatives. The fear of sexual harassment and the fury of the weather in the dark of night were other factors that compounded women’s insecurity, immobilising them. In the ensuing procrastination, many women perished with their children while waiting for their husbands to return home and take them to safety. Others decided to evacuate too late. Still others who in their socially prescribed domestic roles bore the lone burden of trying to get together children, the aged, their livestock, poultry and other belongings to evacuate, were delayed and perished in the surge.
15. Some of the 1991 experiences were repeated in May 1997, especially where no disaster preparedness NGO activity had yet been initiated. These included late warnings, women’s receipt of warnings later than men and a consequent lack of time for evacuation.
16. By contrast, in areas with community-based disaster preparedness NGO activity, women and men demonstrated better awareness and knowledge about the nature of cyclones, their impact and the nature and significance of warning information, and what household and community-based measures were to be taken at each signal. Warnings received over the radio, microphones and megaphones, as also by watching for hoisted flags on shelters, were timely. Primarily male community based disaster preparedness committee members and male Cyclone Preparedness Programme Volunteers, of Government of Bangladesh publicly communicated this information. However in certain areas women committee members were part of the community- based pre disaster emergency meeting, in which responsibilities for disaster management and response were allocated to area-based groups. In other areas women
386 committee members, other local women and women Red Crescent Youth volunteers disseminated warning information by word of mouth to neighbors and friends within the smaller range of the neighborhood, while in still others women committee members even disseminated warnings publicly, using microphones and megaphones.
17. Women commenced their household-based preparedness activity in time. These included: safe storage and preservation of food, and valuable items in earthen pots underground, unfastening livestock and sending them with male family members or older children to be kept at heights on embankments; fastening houses to trees, and keeping ready emergency food, water and valuables to be taken to shelters. This contributed significantly to the preservation of life, especially those of women and children. Moreover women experienced a heightened sense of involvement in socially useful community activity.
18. A pervasive concern of women was the burden they bore of handling the entire responsibility of household preparedness measures. The men were either away working, in the vicinity chatting and gathering information on the latest developments, or in some cases herding cattle to embankments. Women expressed a desire for the men to be around as far as possible, and assist them with preparedness tasks.
2.2 During disaster
19. In the cyclone of 1991, more women than men died while trying to save themselves and their children, due to the close bonding developed as a result of their mothering roles. By contrast, documented evidence points to men abandoning their families and saving themselves (Haidar et. al. 1991). A businessman from Boroghape going home to bring his family to safety, encountered rising water levels and decided not continue further. His wife and children died waiting for him to return. More men lived to narrate how their children had been swept away. In one instance, the father had to choose between holding on to one of his two children, as it was impossible to save both. He tellingly let go of the female child, and is reported to have said, “this son has to carry on the family line” (Ibid). Few women survived after they let go of their children.
20. In both cyclones, women found it more difficult than men to scale trees, beams of houses, rooftops, row boats and swim. In 1991, many perished in the surge with their children. This was compounded by their not being used to such vigorous ‘masculine’ activity. For women are socialized to refrain from such activity in routine life, in conformity to prescribed social codes of modest and genteel feminine conduct. In 1991 in particular, this reduced their survival chances. In a culture that highly values female modesty, the dress code Ð the sari, the burkha and long hair, became a death trap for women, inhibiting quick movement and their ability to swim against the surge. In 1991, some women remained in the waters as they were disrobed in the surge and were ashamed to come out. Some perished, as a result. By contrast, men who were completely unclad unabashedly searched for pieces of cloth and even unrobed
387 corpses to clothe themselves. This is indicative of differing male-female perceptions to body, sexuality and notions of modesty, which was again detrimental to women’s chances for survival.
21. By contrast in 1997, in areas with enhanced consciousness women moved to shelters at signals 7, 8 or 9 in 1997. However, some families did not move, either because they were not part of the community-based disaster preparedness network and had consequently not yet recognized the need for timely preparedness initiatives; or they lived too far away from shelters; or they remained at home to pre-empt theft of their belongings and usurpation of their property. Most women had an agreement with their husbands to flee to shelters with their children, even in the absence of husbands or male family members. Women thus moved to shelters with their children, without fearing the wrath of absent husbands, or the community. Women maintained that they evacuated first with their children and the aged. If the men were at home, they either stayed behind to guard homes and belongings, went with the women or followed carrying the disabled.
22. Poultry and livestock were unfastened and generally left to fend for themselves, as there were a lack of appropriate killas.
23. Women who reached shelters in the 1991 and 1997 cyclones, found them too far and too few. Accessing shelters was difficult because of flooding, the consequent disappearance of approach paths, and uprooted trees that blocked movement. These conditions made it particularly difficult for women to, often single-handedly, move children, the aged and their belongings to safety. Women, children and the aged kept slipping and falling as a result of the heavy rain, high wind speed and slush. They were bruised from falling, from flying corrugated tin sheets and uprooted tree branches. Children kept getting lost. The situation was even more difficult for pregnant women. Women complained of sexual harassment and chain snatching en route to shelters.
24. Women faced specific problems in shelters. Both in 1991 and in 1997, they found them overcrowded and congested. According to the communities, shelters can on an average accommodate around 800 people, but during a cyclone the number is anywhere between 1500-2000. The shelters had no proper lighting facilities or arrangements for sex segregation. Women complained that the large numbers of men and women huddled together Ð a rarity in a culture of seclusion Ð heightened their insecurity.
25. Innovative attempts at sex segregation were attempted in some shelters Ð men being accommodated on the ground floor and in shelter verandahs, while women and children occupied the room on the first floor; or constructing makeshift partitions with benches that served the purpose of segregation. Shelters were not designed with separate toilets. There was no stored water or provision for toiletries like cloth for menstruating women and girls. Toilets in most shelters were constructed in the compound below, making it impossible for women and children to edge their way through the crush or access them in the midst of high wind speeds and pouring rain.
388 Where shelters have a toilet within, they were not usable, as they had no water, or water connections, etc. Women and children therefore defecated and urinated in shelters, making conditions very unhygienic. All this reduced women’s privacy levels, and especially enhanced the discomfort of menstruating, pregnant and lactating women. Further, shelters had no proper drainage facilities and rainwater entering through openings in the doors and windows flooded them. Women and older female children stood in ankle or shin deep water, carrying infants and little children to keep them above water levels. They suffered cramps and aches as a result. There were no ledges for women to keep their belongings, adding to the weight they were burdened by. Shelters had no proper provisions for adequate drinking water and lacked emergency medical and food supplies like puffed rice or high protein biscuits, which made it very stressful for the children and in turn for women with children.
2.3 Post disaster
26. In cyclonic disasters crops, vegetation, stored grain were either washed away or rotted. Salt ready for sale, hatcheries, fishing boats and nets were destroyed. Poultry and livestock perished. Standing saline water in the fields was a setback to cultivation. Rotting leaves and decomposed carcasses polluted drinking water sources. While entire families and communities lost their sources of livelihood and sustenance, the class and gender impacts of this economic loss were unevenly distributed. Those who lived in concrete structures with granaries adequately stocked, and assets carefully kept at home or in financial institutions, recovered faster. Small farmers, tenants and landless households suffered acute losses. Women from these households and women headed households lost life sustaining sources of nutrition and livelihood Ð food, food grains, seeds, crops, kitchen gardens and their products, poultry and livestock, stored water for drinking and other domestic purposes, jewellery and carefully saved income stashed away at home were even worse off. This negatively impacted nutrition levels of women and children; caused outbreaks of diarrhoea, dysentery, fevers, and respiratory and skin ailments; and resulted in women’s greater exposure and susceptibility to some of these ailments in the course of nursing family members back to health.
27. In their nurturing and care-giving roles, and as producers, providers, and consumers of food and other goods and services for their families, communities and themselves, women suffered a sharp increase in work loads. In both cyclones, not only were women engaged in providing for the physical needs of the family Ð food, clothing, shelter, fuel, water, health care Ð but did so in difficult conditions and were encumbered by emergency operations such as the construction of make-shift shelters, constructing rafts and scaffolds to keep above water levels, sheltering animals, protecting their children and animals from insect and snake bites, taking special care of infants and the aged, particularly when ill. Women coped by invoking assistance from the village elite, borrowing from neighbours, scouring the environment for scraps of food and fuel wood, subsisting on emergency items stored underground or in the homes of the elite, or by going to live with relatives in less affected areas till the worst
389 was over. According to both men and women, men were either away seeking relief items, opportunities to earn some income, or at familiar sites of male bonding like the tea shop, the local grocery kiosk or the main road chatting and exchanging information. Male out migration for jobs at a later stage was also reported.
28. Immediate relief and long term recovery support for income generating and housing reconstruction activities were distributed to men. Women in all these contexts report that male heads of households at times used relief items to suit their own needs and priorities, rather than those of the household (e.g. men spending money to buy cigarettes, tea, ‘paan’ etc.). Despite their increased workload and creative contribution to the survival process, women, especially women heading households, were marginalized from access to the very relief items they were responsible for providing the family with in the post-disaster phase. This is because it was assumed that males head households and that there exists an intra-family equality (equality within the family) sharing of resources and harmony of interests. Agricultural and housing reconstruction inputs allocated by government and NGOs during rehabilitation are often tied to previous patterns of land and housing ownership, i.e. allocated to males who are the owners and perceived as farmers, or in the case of some female headed households these allocations were instead made to sons (even minors) or brothers of the late husband, instead of the wife. As women generally do not own land and houses, and are not considered farmers, they are once again marginalized from acquisition of such assets. Such marginalization coupled with the loss of their meagre resources in disaster exacerbates their impoverishment and slows down the pace of women’s long term recovery even more than for men.
29. Women were disadvantaged in battling with physically stronger men in relief distribution queues and were hesitant to approach male relief workers in a sex-segregated culture. Carrying weighty packages home, the inundation of entire areas and disruption of normal communication systems, and observance of purdah were other factors contributing to this marginalization.
30. Relief food items and clothing were often inappropriate. Women complained that the distribution of dry grain in 1991, when it was difficult to find enough dry firewood to cook it, resulted in consumption of partially cooked grain and consequent stomach disorders, especially for children. Others said they sold the grain and children went hungry.
31. Men and women maintained that even in the cyclone of 1997, they had to wait for first aid and treatment for fevers and diarrhoea for themselves and their families up to three days after the cyclone. Doctors providing health services were men, thus inhibiting women’s access to them. There was no provision for the psychological rehabilitation of communities both in 1991 and in 1997. Women are more emotionally attached to their children because they spend more time with them at home. The suffering and loss of children during the cyclones, the loss of male family members in a culture in which women are heavily dependent on men, the pressures of economic and cultural dislocation and the pressure on women especially to stabilize and normalize
390 life for the family as fast as possible, makes the need for addressing their psychological needs (and that of the whole community) in disaster extremely important.
32. Finally, women who did receive housing reconstruction inputs after the 1997 cyclone, said that at times they were given only corrugated tin sheets for roofs and had none of the other related inputs for proper reconstruction. Also there was no assistance or training imparted to women to reconstruct. Even when female headed households, women from landless households or pregnant and lactating women were identified as priority target groups by the government and NGOs engaged in post disaster work, it was the immediate practical rather than the long term strategic gender needs of these groups that were addressed.
3. WOMEN AS SURVIVORS: SPECIAL STRENGTHS AND CAPACITIES
33. Emerging wisdom in disaster management highlights the importance of looking at people not just vulnerable victims of disasters, but as survivors who can contribute actively to the recovery process. This is especially true for women. In their socially constructed roles as nurturers, socializing agents and as key consumers of environmental resources, their capacities, coping mechanisms, survival strategies, local knowledge, leadership potential, skills and resources can be brought to bear significantly on disaster preparedness, relief, management and mitigation activities. Before the cyclone of May 1997, women with the help of the men replaced the old bamboo poles of their homes, raised the ground levels of their houses by adding more soil, built small ‘killas’ for their cattle and poultry. Just before the cyclone struck, women placed essential household items, including food and clean drinking water in large earthen pots underground, as a safety and storage measure; packed emergency food items like puffed rice, water, and valuables like jewellery and documents in plastic bags to carry with them to shelters; tied household furniture to strong trees; collected and stored firewood; untied cattle and poultry either allowing them to move about freely or tying them to posts erected on ‘killas.’ In the throes of and in the aftermath of April 1991 cyclone, women and their children drank coconut water till the first relief came. The survivors made make-shift bamboo and wooden rafts to float on and held on to logs and branches to keep above water level. They scaled and sat on tree tops and on the roofs of two storeyed buildings with surviving children. Despite this women’s capacities remain even more concealed than their vulnerabilities in disaster.
4. MAINSTREAM DISASTER PRACTICE: ENHANCING WOMEN’S VULNERABILITIES AND CONCEALING CAPACITIES
34. Quite obviously the subordinate position of women in society enhances women’s vulnerabilities in disaster and slows down their long-term recovery. Women’s contribution to the survival process is perceived as a simple extension of domestic chores that is consistent with women’s basic nature, and thus remains invisible.
391 35. Disaster management theory and practice contributes to this process. Disaster work has traditionally been a male terrain and largely continues to be so, because it involves public activity in difficult, dangerous, physically and emotionally draining conditions that are deemed naturally appropriate only for men. Its theoretical paradigms and practical interventions that are by and large constructed, planned and executed by men with gendered perspectives, consequently marginalize women’s interests.
36. Mainstream conventional formulations on natural disasters defined disasters within the natural science paradigm as natural, exceptional natural calamities. (Hewitt, 1983b, pp. 5-7)
37. The 1970s and 1980s however saw a paradigm shift that framed disasters as a function of vulnerabilities of communities and an integral part of normal time development processes (O’Keefe et. al., 1976; Cuny, 1983; Maskrey, 1989; Cannon, 1994).
38. Both traditions, the natural science paradigm and contemporary vulnerability analysis when applied to communities as homogenous entities, are generic. They subsume women and their concerns under the rubric of a universal humanity. They disregard the different socially-determined role and trait stereotypes for men and women. They thereby assume a similarity of needs and interests between women and men; a unitary, harmonious, nuclear model of household, marked by a man as benevolent head and breadwinner and women in dependent domestic roles. They assume that women’s class positions are neatly derived of from those of their husband’s. They believe in an equality and mutuality of interests in patterns of resource ownership, allocation, control and use between genders within households and kinship groups, both in normal times and in disasters.
39. Generically oriented gender blind interventions thus conceal the special biologically and socially determined needs and capacities of women in disasters in relation to men, arising from their socially prescribed reproductive roles. They mask the differential impact of disasters on men and women, with women bearing the brunt. In effect they reinforce the greater marginalization and the burden women experience in disasters.
40. Following the United Nations (UN Decade) for women 1975-1985, that made it difficult for development theory and practice to marginalize women’s distinctive experiences and concerns; the appallingly larger number of disaster casualties and deaths among women than men; the vulnerability approach’s designation of women as a vulnerable population group and the insistence of international NGOs and donor agencies on addressing women as ‘relief beneficiaries’ in disasters, women’s concerns have now begun to figure on the agenda of disaster organizations.
41. Though this represents a step forward from the gender blind approach, these women specific interventions and their particular treatment of women’s concerns leaves much to be desired. Women tend to be constructed as ‘biologically weak, inferior and
392 hapless victims’ with special biologically determined needs, needing to be protected and rescued by ‘stronger’ men. This is attributable to the deeply entrenched male-oriented world view, culture and practices of these organizations that perceive male and female role and trait stereotypes and unequal gender relations, as natural and biologically determined. It is also perhaps attributable to the ‘historic links of these organizations to military and para-military emergency response’ (Enarson, 1997), which is deeply male-centered.
42. This biologically rooted orientation of disaster organizations to women:
● conceals interacting social processes that largely account for women’s special needs, vulnerabilities and capacities in disasters and otherwise;
● categorizes women as a separate target group isolating their concerns from mainstream social life and development activity;
● addresses women’s practical needs, but not their strategic gender interests 8.
● overlooks the responsibility of men to women’s domestic and care work and reinforces existing gender role and trait stereotypes Ð ‘men in the public sphere’, ‘women at home’, men as stronger and more capable and women as weak and dependent;
● constructs women as victims and passive recipients of relief. This denies women their subject-hood and masks their creative contribution to the survival process before, during and in the aftermath of a disaster.
43. In assuming that unequal gender relationships are natural givens and hence unchangeable, this perspective lacks the methodological tools to move to a further level of systematic identification and analysis of women’s concerns in disaster, in complex, changing social contexts. Women thus figure as mere additives and appendages on the disaster response agenda. It is therefore imperative to weave ‘gender’ as an analytical category and ‘gender analysis’ as a methodological tool of analysis into the core of disaster preparedness and management theory and practice.
5. INNOVATIVE COMMUNITY-BASED INITIATIVES BY DISASTER MANAGEMENT ORGANIZATIONS
44. Some disaster management organizations have however introduced innovative community-based gender initiatives that can inspire new thinking, adaptation and application in other contexts. Examples are those introduced by the Cyclone Preparedness Programme of the Government of Bangladesh, and the Community- based Disaster Preparedness Programme (CBDPP) of the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society (BDRCS). Both have been actively recruiting female volunteers and female field workers in their disaster preparedness and management work and providing gender training for staff and disaster affected communities. Further the BDRCS has adopted a village level community-based approach to disaster preparedness and management. This includes the formation of micro groups of men and women based on household
393 clusters, and the recruitment of women and men field assistants. The programme has a clear gender perspective that looks at the differential impact of disasters on men and women, and seeks to rectify imbalances by addressing and engaging with both men and women. It involves both men and women in decision-making on disaster issues, and draws on the female assistant and micro group leaders to work with and train women in the community on household and community based preparedness measures.
45. There have been notable gender initiatives in other parts of South Asia as well. After the devastating floods of 1989 that destroyed the villages of Bharat and Shamsabad in the district of Muzaffargarh in Pakistan, the NGO Pattan catalyzed two important gender sensitive interventions in its reconstruction assistance. One was to incorporate women’s suggestions into housing layout and design, the other was to introduce co-ownership of houses by husband and wife and involve the community in the decision making process of this project (Bari, 1996).
46. A similar project of joint ownership of housing by husband and wife, catalysed and funded by the World Bank, was implemented in post-earthquake reconstruction in Latur, India.
47. In highly sex-segregated societies in many parts of South Asia, for instance, the induction of female staff working closely with the community of local women and notions of co-ownership and shared responsibility of men and women help engender and enrich the practice of disaster organizations. More significantly this unleashes a new social dynamics of women operating in the public sphere and crossing their traditional boundaries, some becoming role models for other women in the community Ð a possible first step towards more empowering gender relations.
48. Moreover such initiatives catalyzed by community-based NGOs, existing local women’s organizations or external organizations assume special significance in two contexts:
● where formal, slow, top-down bureaucratic relief and reconstruction may result in inequitable and unsustainable results, failing to address the felt needs of vulnerable communities, ignoring local resources and capacities and in some cases even increasing people’s vulnerabilities and,
● the paradigm shift away from relief and reconstruction towards disaster resilient development.
6. AN ACTION AGENDA: ENGENDERING PRESENT INITIATIVES AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS
49. The foregoing discussion points to an urgency for a shift in the approach of disaster preparedness and management, so as to reflect the centrality of women’s experience in pre, during, and post disaster situations, compare these with men and then embark on addressing imbalances. This will ensure women’s rights as human
394 rights, guarantee efficiency, promote family welfare and facilitate women’s empowerment, thus promoting sustainable development.
50. To this end changes are specifically warranted on at least the five following counts: conceptual, legal, social, institutional and infrastructural.9
6.1 Conceptual categories and tools of analysis
51. It is imperative to challenge conventional formulations of gender role and trait stereotypes and inequity in gender relations that are grounded in an ahistorical, mechanistic and static biologically determinist paradigm. As important is the need to dislodge the traditional integration of women as a category, under the general rubric of a universal humanity. Engendering the central paradigms of development and disaster preparedness and management, necessitates a recognition and incorporation into theory and practice, of the following that:
● there exists a distinction between the concepts sex and gender. Sex refers to the biological distinctions between males and females. These differences, the most significant of which concern the genital and reproductive structures, are fixed at birth and do not generally vary among human communities.
● gender refers to differences in social roles/responsibilities between men and women, to social conduct and traits deemed appropriate to each, and to ideas about how behaviour and activities should be valued, rewarded or censured. In other words gender refers to the social construction of masculinity and femininity, that varies across cultures.
● gender is a relational category referring to the relationship between men and women and to socially-determined roles that are acceptable to each sex. Existing relations between men and women in most parts of the world being marked by male dominance and female subordination Ð an unequal relationship which is not just biologically, but largely socially determined.
● that this discriminatorily impacts women’s access to, ownership and control over material and non-material resources and structures male and female conduct and interactions, confining women. Women’s special needs and interests, including those that surface during and in the aftermath of disasters, thus stem not just from the peculiarities of biology, but from their subordinate social location and their relegation to socially mediated reproductive roles.
● gender is an important principle of social organization, and permeates every social structure and process including family and kinship systems, the development process and the terrain of disasters. It is necessary to question mainstream constructions of a ‘unitary, harmonious, male-headed
395 nuclear’ family model, considering ground realities and the implications this assumption has in disaster practice for women.
● gender does not however exist in isolation, but simultaneously interacts with other social categories such as class, caste, race, ethnicity and the like. This raises the question of difference and the treatment of difference (in disasters). This difference is not just between men and women, but between different categories of women arising out of their differential social locations in terms of class, race, ethnicity (e.g. rich-poor women, white-black women etc.).
● as gender is a socially constructed category and as unequal gender relations are socially mediated they can be transformed in the direction of gender justice, equity, mutuality, reciprocity and partnership. This heralds the possibility for positive transformations in disaster situations.
52. Quite obviously, the gender approach though woman-focussed, is not woman-exclusive. It addresses differential male and female roles, activities, conduct, needs, and interests in an attempt to rectify imbalance weighted against women, eliminate hierarchies and usher in mutuality. For to be woman exclusive would isolate women from mainstream development processes, leave male consciousness and practices not addressed and undermine the move towards empowering relationships of partnership.
53. How do we realize this? One means is by mainstreaming, that involves two separate but interlinked processes Ð mainstreaming women and mainstreaming gender. Mainstreaming women is essentially ‘political’ and ensures their representation and active participation, particularly in policy and decision-making bodies and fora. Women’s participation is essential because due to their different gender roles, women have different needs and priorities from those of men.
54. But to achieve greater participation by women, the environment within which activities take place and decisions are made may need to be adapted and made gender-responsive, by mainstreaming gender. This involves:
● explicitly identifying and taking into account the specific impact of all activities, projects, programmes and policies on women and men separately;
● adapting these where it is clear that women are disadvantaged, by meeting practical gender needs such as having women relief distributors in cultures of seclusion, to ensure women’s access to relief;
● seeking to change gender roles, by addressing strategic gender interests by, for example, by encouraging women’s active participation in disaster committees and public sphere disaster activities. This would facilitate decision-making by women and opening up a wider range of paid job opportunities to women (Corner, 1999). Gender mainstreaming can be achieved through gender analysis and the use of gender statistics.
396 6.2 Legal considerations
55. In recent years, new legislation in several countries has established organizations and arrangements for emergency response, specifying roles and responsibilities of various agencies in pre and post emergency situations. Some countries have administrative orders specifying availability of funds at different administrative levels and directives regarding their use. While this paper has not explored these in any depth so as to offer substantive comment, it is necessary for gender progressive groups to catalyse the incorporation of gender sensitive perspectives into these legal formulations and administrative directives; the building into these formulations adequate mechanisms for accountability of implementing bodies and individuals; the provision of legal literacy to women on the existence of these systems, and how women can avail of them and ensure efficient enforcement.
6.3 Changes in social values and attitudes
56. Gendered constructions of masculinity and femininity need to change. It is necessary to develop more androgenous personalities, a greater reciprocity in gender relations in every aspect of life, sharing of responsibilities and a greater diffusion in roles. This has been initiated in small measure in the domain of disasters, where creative gender interventions by NGOs are slowly providing momentum to the transformation process. While it would be a travesty of truth to say that creative practice by the CPP and the BDRCS (both engaged in disaster preparedness and management work), have radically restructured gender relations, visible changes in this direction are obvious. That female CPP volunteers in Cox’s Bazar Town, disseminated warning information in the 1997 cyclone, and helped women and young children to reach the cyclone shelter, when the evacuation signal was flashed, certainly goes against traditional grain. This is a transgression of conventional domestic boundaries for women, and also breaks the traditional gendered division of labor in disaster work, marking the entry of women into the dangerous male space of disasters. Or for that matter, in the 1997 cyclone (unlike in 1991) many men are reported to have helped women in what is conventionally deemed ‘women’s work’ Ð gathering belongings, herding cattle carrying children to cyclone shelters. Village women and BDRCS field volunteers report that this is largely the outcome of community awareness raised through village level meetings, discussions and gender sensitivity training on the needs and concerns of women and men in disaster and the significance of mutual help, regardless of gender roles.
57. Practices such as these with transformation potential need to be discussed within communities, become more widespread, encompass other areas of life and get institutionalized in the interests of sustained gender justice and partnership.
397 6.4 Institutional changes
58. Purely technocratic paradigms of disaster management; an excessive emphasis on post disaster relief operations; a top down gender blind approach that treats affected communities as victims and passive beneficiaries, fails to address the felt needs of vulnerable communities (including women), ignores local resources and capacities, may result in inequitable and unsustainable results, increases vulnerabilities and thwarts disaster resilient development.
59. It is imperative to introduce institutional shifts towards vulnerability and capacity analysis; a concern with disaster mitigation and reduction; a community- based approach that responds to affected populations as ‘partners in development’; and gender planning and analysis that addresses the vulnerabilities and capacities of women in relation to men in disasters, with a view to innovative gender interventions.
6.5 Support services and infrastructure facilities
60. Critically linked to women’s capacity enhancement in disaster and in its aftermath is their access to support services and infrastructure facilities. As noted earlier, there are significant gender (in addition to class) disabilities and inequities associated with access to shelters, conditions in shelters for women, access to relief items and reconstruction inputs such as access to land, houses or housing material, credit, production or income generation inputs and services, technical information and training on housing reconstruction and income generation and production technologies. Poor women, especially poor female-headed households are particularly hard hit on all these counts.
61. There is clearly a need for a systematic effort to eliminate prevailing biases in the delivery mechanisms of government infrastructure. A greater female presence in disaster preparedness, management, mitigation, relief, rehabilitation and reconstruction activity would certainly be of help in reducing some of these gender biases, but it is as important to reorient these systems, so that even male functionaries recognize the significance of women’s needs and concerns and the importance of assisting women. Further while dependence on the state alone is insufficient and more limited in its potential success for reaching women, in comparison to non-governmental organizations, the latter also need a significant re-orientation in regard to incorporating a gender sensitive perspective into their delivery mechanisms.
6.6 Collective action
62. The fore-mentioned legal, social, institutional and infrastructure changes require to be initiated and sustained by the committed engagement of a combination of actors. These include the government, political parties, NGOs and most importantly the community of local women.
398 63. Collective action by women can radically transform social attitudes and practices that deny women their legitimate material and non-material rights and entitlements.
64. Building group support among and for women, both locally and nationally, is critical for women’s empowerment. Such support can come from external groups that provide specialized help to village women; from organizations of rural women themselves and from reorienting men in government and in the bureaucracy, in disaster-related NGOs and men in the local community, towards women’s issues and concerns. The presence of women with a gender perspective in decision making roles and positions of authority, both locally and nationally, also has a wider impact on women especially in purdah-practising communities where women are more likely to take their grievances to women representatives than to all-male bodies.
7. CONCLUSIONS
65. In conclusion it may be said that disasters provide an opportunity for disaster preparedness and management theory and practice to actively foreground women’s vulnerabilities and to concretely and creatively address these. It also provides the opportunity to create visibility and build on women’s strengths and capacities and to institutionalize creative non-traditional gender interventions. The engendering of the central paradigms of development and disasters would contribute to gender justice in disaster response, enhance women’s capacities as survivors and ensure their long-term empowerment, thus enhancing sustainable development of their communities.
399 NOTES
1. A brief note on the nature of, timing and conditions in which the cyclones of 1991 and 1997 occurred, would further contextualize their gendered impacts, The cyclone of the 29th April 1991 has been described as a super cyclone, whose magnitude was twice the size of the country; it occurred at night and was accompanied by a surge. The last cyclonic disaster of catastrophic proportions in Bangladesh had occurred in 1970, and was hazy in collective memory. Moreover the level of community based cyclone preparedness and management was poorly developed in 1991. By contrast the cyclone of May 1997 occurred during the day, had no accompanying surge and occurred in a context in which cyclone preparedness and management measures, including measures with a gender responsive orientation were much better developed by the Cyclone Preparedness Programme (CPP) and NGOs engaged in disaster preparedness and management in some areas. Also with the horrific memories of the cyclone of 1991 still fresh in the collective consciousness, the affected communities were far more willing to take preparedness measures in 1997. All these factors configured to contain the number of deaths and casualities of the 1997 cyclonic disaster in all the selected areas and reduce the acuteness of its gendered impacts. Despite this however, disaster workers encountered women unwilling to move without their men-folk and families who stayed back to guard their property. 2. The was the result of a study undertaken by this author in phases between August 1997 and October 1999 in six populous and disaster-prone coastal villages of three sub-districts in Cox’s Bazar district in South Bangladesh: Chandaliyapara and Katabonia in the sub-district of Teknaf; Charpara and Fakirakata in the sub-district of Moiscal; and Badarkhali and Napithkhali in the sub-district of Chakaria. See Mainstreaming Gender in Disaster Management: The Case of Bangladesh, UNIFEM, (Monograph) fc. 3. I am grateful to the International Federation of the Red Cross Society (IFRCS) & the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society (BDRCS), in particular Dr. Purnima Chattopadhayay-Dutt, German Red Cross Delegate, Bangladesh for facilitatating this field research in BDRCS project areas; to the management/staff of IFRCS, BDRCS, the Government Cyclone Preparedness Programme , NGOs & the rural communities for their valuable insights; to Gender for a small grant for a preliminary field scan and to Dr Lorraine Corner, UNIFEM and Loy Rego ADPC for their incisive comments on the paper. 4. More than half of the poor suffer from malnutrition. Infant mortality is 91 per 1,000 live births. Almost 2/3rds of the adult population is illiterate. About 5 per cent of the population have no access to health services. See Mahbub ul Haq. 1997. Human Development in South Asia, Karachi: Oxford University Press. 5. Social factors such as class, religion, rural-urban location, region, etc. breed variations in the condition and position of different segments of Bangladeshi women in relation to one another and in relation to men in different social locations. But macro indicators do suggest women’s general marginalization. For details of these see National Gender Profile, UNDP, Bangladesh, 1999. In the six villages, while education levels were generally low for both men and women, they were significantly lower for women. In Katabonia, of the 35 women interviewed, 30 (88 per cent) were absolutely illiterate, four had primary education, and only one had secondary education. By contrast, of the 27 men in the same area, 14 had secondary education, and 5 primary education, and only eight (30 per cent) were illiterate. In Charapara of 13 women interviewed, 5 had secondary education, and the rest were illiterate. By contrast of the 17 men interviewed, 8 had secondary education, 7 primary education and only 2 were illiterate. It must however be mentioned that the levels of openness and participation for women are higher in Moiscal and Chakaria, than in Teknaf because these areas are better mainstreamed and have a concentration of NGO activity. 6. This is a typical work profile for poor women without assets. Women from land-owning households engage poorer women for post-harvest agricultural operations, poultry/livestock raising and other forms of domestic labour. However though women’s class position is seen as
400 derived from her husband’s, though women from elite households may enjoy higher living standards or may exercise power/control over poorer men and women, they are in a precarious position. Their lack of independent ownership over, access to and control over resources could render them impoverished and destitute in the event of widowhood, either because they are disinherited by husbands, and/or their share in marital property is appropriated by relatives or if divorced or deserted are denied support by the husband. 7. Women headed households are increasing, especially among the poorest. This is caused by death; male out migration for jobs; erosion of the extended family system due to heightening impoverishment and the consequent undermining of the basis of family solidarity and support; the pervasiveness of the cash economy and the emerging dowry system that causes particularly poorer men to marry more than once, so as to acquire wealth, resulting in increases in the rates of divorce and desertion faced by poor and landless women now than before. See National Gender Profile, UNDP, Bangladesh, 1999. 8. Practical gender needs refer to women’s needs in terms of their current gender roles, leaving the status quo in gender relations unchallenged. Strategic gender interests acknowledge the longer term need to change gender roles so that women and men share more equally both the responsibility for domestic and reproductive work and ownership, control over and access to resources and benefits. Strategic interests can only be defined in a comparative perspective in relation to men. Strategies to meet women’s strategic interests are designed to raise the status of women relative to that of men. 9. For this classification, see Agarwal, B. (1998) Disinherited Peasants, Disadvantaged Workers: A Gender Perspective on Land and Livelihood, Economic and Political Weekly, March 28, A-2-14.
401 REFERENCES
1. Agarwal, B. (1998) “Disinherited Peasants, Disadvantaged Workers: A Gender Perspective on Land and Livelihood”. Economic and Political Weekly, March 28, A-2-14. 2. Bari, Farzana. 1996 “Gender and Disaster: A Case Study, Pattan: Working with Riverine Communities.” Duryog Nivaran Proceedings of Workshop on Gender and Disasters, Multan Pakistan, 6-8 March. 3. Cannon, T. 1994. “Vulnerability Analysis and the Explanation of ‘Natural’ Disasters” in Disasters, Development and Environment edited by Ann Varley. Chichester. John Viley and Sons. 4. Corner, L. 1999. “A Gender Approach to the Advancement of Women: Handout and Notes for Gender Workshops, UNIFEM East and Southeast Asia, Bangkok. 5. Cuny, Fredrick C. 1983. Disasters and Development. New York: Oxford University Press. 6. D’Cunha, J. 1997. “Engendering Disaster Preparedness and Management”. Lead Article in Asian Disaster Management News: A Newsletter of the Disaster Management Community in Asia and the Pacific, 3(3) November. 7. Enarson, Elaine. 1997. “From the Margins to the Center: Women, Global Disaster, and Sustainable Development”. Frap-Net News: A Publication of the Feminist Researchers for Action and Policy Network 3(11) April. 8. Guarnizo C.C. 1992. “Living with Hazards: Communities’ Adjustment Mechanisms in Developing Countries” Pp. 93-106 in Environmental Management and Urban Vulnerability. World Bank Discussion Paper No. 168, World Bank, Washington D.C. edited by A. Kreimer and M. Munasinghe. 9. Haidar, Rana. Rahman, Atiq, A. Haq, Saleemul. (Eds) 1991. Cyclone ’91: An Environmental and Perceptional Study. Dhaka, Bangladesh: Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies. 10. Hewitt, K. 1983b. “The Idea of Calamity in a Technocratic Age”. Pp. 3-32 in Interpretations of Calamity from the Viewpoint of Human Ecology edited by K. Hewitt Boston.: Allen and Unwin. 11. Mahbub ul Haq. 1997. Human Development in South Asia, Karachi: Oxford University Press. 12. Maskrey Andrew. 1989. Disaster Mitigation: A Community-based Approach Oxford: Oxfam. 13. O’ Keefe, P., Westgate, K. and Wisner, B. 1976. “Taking the Naturalness Out of Disasters.” Nature 260:566-7.
402 14. Susman, P. O’Keefe, P. and Wisner, B. 1983. “Global Disasters, A Radical Interpretation”. Pp. 263-83. in Interpretations of Calamity from the Viewpoint of Human Ecology edited by K. Hewitt. Boston.: Allen and Unwin. 15. Torry, W.I. 1986. “Economic Development, Drought and Famines: Some Limitations of Dependency Explanations”. GeoJournal 12 (1):5-18. 16. UNDP. Bangladesh. 1999. National Gender Profile.
403 (404 blank) Annex XX APDC/01/Info. 4
DISASTERS IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC: AN OVERVIEW*
1. DISASTER IMPACTS IN ASIA
1. Asia and the Pacific are among the most disaster prone regions in the world. Every year, disasters of all kinds cause huge loss of lives and property in the region causing a severe setback to the development process. The region accounts for only 30 per cent of the world’s land-mass but receives disproportionately higher disaster impacts. The annual average numbers of people killed, affected, made homeless and injured by disasters presented in Table 1 indicate that the disaster impacts in the region are significantly higher than the other regions. Statistics for the Pacific island countries may be low due to their much smaller size but the impacts in proportion to the size of national economies is very high.
Table 1. Annual average number of people killed, affected, made homeless and injured by region (1973 to 1997)
Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania Total Killed 44,262 6,171 36,914 2,075 124 89,546 % of Total 49% 7% 41% 2% 0% Affected 12,039,045 3,792,767 126,751,770 563,177 1,043,992 144,190,752 % of Total 8% 3% 88% 0% 1% Homeless 287,541 310,399 4,217,823 42,416 14,600 4,872,778 % of Total 6% 6% 87% 1% 0% Injured 2,228 9,830 57,446 3,554 643 73,700 % of Total 3% 13% 78% 5% 1% Source: World Disasters Report 1999.
2. Table 2 shows the trend in average annual number of people reported killed, affected, made homeless or injured in Asia per five-year period from 1973 to 1997. The use of five-year periods reduces the influence of individual years and allows for better trend analysis.
* This paper was prepared by Kamal Kishore, Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC), Thailand. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author’s and not necessarily those of FAO. The paper has not been edited by FAO.
405 Table 2. Annual average number of people killed, affected, made homeless and injured in Asia by period (1973 to 1997)
1973 to 77 1978 to 82 1983 to 87 1988 to 92 1993 to 97 Killed 68,454 16,529 17,073 63,435 19,078 Affected 62,502,799 127,831,208 137,858,113 154,905,725 150,661,006 Homeless 3,026,946 588,882 2,361,435 16,861,685 4,250,166 Injured 43,507 18,824 30,547 108,510 85,840 Source: World Disasters Report 1999.
3. This trend shows that, in general, since early and mid 1980s less individuals have been reported killed by disasters in Asia. The severe cyclone of 1991 in Bangladesh represents a severe disaster with a relatively high return period that may cause heavy casualties. In contrast to the number of people killed by disasters, the number of people affected by disasters in Asia over the period 1973 to 1997 has remained largely unchanged. This indicates that the disaster preparedness and mitigation programmes have been insufficient to counter the effects of other factors that increase vulnerability such as fast population growth, deforestation, and increasing concentrations of people in urban areas. There has been a decline in the number of people rendered homeless over the period 1973 to 1997, which is attributable to better flood preparedness, forecasting and early warning systems. There has been a rapid increase in the number of people injured by disasters. This can be attributed to higher number of earthquakes in the Asian region, which have a relatively high injury-to- death ratio.
2. TYPES OF DISASTERS IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC
4. Asia and the Pacific are affected by almost every conceivable hazard Ð geological hazards such as earthquakes, landslides and volcanoes; hydro-meteorological hazards such as floods, cyclones and droughts; and other hazards such as epidemics, insect infestations, hot and cold waves, and forest fires. The annual average number of reported disasters by region and type for the period 1988 to 1997 presented in Table 3 clearly indicate that the occurrence of disasters from almost all kinds of hazards is among the highest in Asia and the Pacific.
2.1 Hydro-meteorological Hazards
5. The most common hazards in Asia and the Pacific region are hydro- meteorological.
406 Table 3. Annual average number of reported disasters by region and type (1988 to 1997)
Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania Total Earthquake 2 6 11 4 2 24 % of Total 8% 24% 44% 16% 8% Drought/ 8 2 3 1 1 15 Famine % of Total 53% 13% 20% 7% 7% Flood 13 22 34 9 4 81 % of Total 16% 27% 41% 11% 5% Landslide 1 4 7 1 1 14 % of Total 7% 29% 50% 7% 7% High Wind1 4283410783 % of Total 5% 34% 41% 12% 8% Volcano 0.2 2 2 0 1 6 % of Total 4% 38% 38% 0% 19% Other2 14 10 14 7 1 46 % of Total 30% 22% 30% 15% 2% Total 42 75 106 31 16 269 % of Total 16% 27% 39% 12% 6% Source: World Disasters Report 1999.
Windstorms
6. Windstorms are the most common of all hazards in the region. Of the total of 2,244 disasters that were reported in the last decade in Asia and the Pacific, 398 were by windstorms. In the last decade over 186,001 people were reported killed and over US$ 6.0 million economic losses were incurred due to windstorms. (World Disaster Report 2000, EM-DAT, CRED, 1990-99).
7. Cyclones generating in the Western Pacific basin move westward and sometimes turn northwest and can affect the Philippines, Asia mainland and Japan. Around 15 per cent of the world’s tropical cyclones originate in the Bay of Bengal and cause severe flooding and devastating tidal surges to the east coast of India and Bangladesh. The windstorms generated in the Pacific Ocean frequently cause devastation to the island countries of Fiji, Tonga, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands, and Samoa. In the past decade the most costly cyclones were in Bangladesh (1991) and Orissa, India (1999). The cyclone that hit the eastern state of Orissa on 29 October 1999 killed more than 10,000 people and affected more than 10 million people in 12 coastal belt districts. (Disaster Dispatch, Jan. 2001). The effects of the disaster were so immense that even after two years, the poor coastal communities are struggling to recover.
1 ‘High Wind’ consists of hurricanes, cyclones, typhoons, storms and tornadoes. 2 ‘Other’ consists of avalanches, tsunami, hot and cold waves, insect infestations and epidemics, and forest fires.
407 Floods
8. Floods account for forty per cent of the natural hazards affecting the Asia and Pacific regions. In Asia alone in the last decade more than 83 per cent of the total reported disasters were due to floods (World Disaster Reports 2000). Unlike cyclones, floods are common to all countries causing heavy economic and human losses. Floods include seasonal flooding, flash flooding, urban flooding, and tidal flooding induced by typhoons in the coastal areas. In Bangladesh as many as 80 million people are vulnerable to flooding, In India, 40 million hectares of agricultural land are at risk from flooding and the annual average damage has been estimated at US$ 240 million. According to CRED data for the last ten years, 377 floods were reported in this region killing more than 55,946 people and incurring economic losses of over US$ 113,371 million. Recent occurrences of floods in Bangladesh, China, Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan have brought with them immense losses to life and property.
9. In 1998, China experienced its worst flooding in 50 years when the Yangtze river swelled and killed 4,150 people in one instance, dislocated 223 million predominantly rural population and inundated 25 million hectares of cropland (Oxfam study on the vulnerability in Southeast Asia 2000).
2.2 Geological Hazards
10. Hazards of geological origin include earthquakes, landslides and volcanic eruptions.
Earthquake
11. Over the last decade, earthquakes caused the maximum economic damage in Asia and Pacific regions. About two-third of all large earthquakes are located in the so-called ‘ring of fire’ around the Pacific. The Himalayan region also represents one of the most seismically active regions in the world. Countries lying in highly seismic region are India, Pakistan, Nepal, Japan, Papua New Guinea, Indonesia, Philippines, China and Afghanistan.
12. Some of the major earthquakes of the decade occurred in Kobe, Japan in 1995, Turkey in 1998-99, Latur, India in 1993, Chamoli, India in 1999 and Gujarat, India in 2001. The most recent earthquake in Gujarat, India on 26 January 2001, was the worst earthquake of the decade. The impact of the earthquake was felt in the neighboring countries of Pakistan and Afghanistan too. According to the World Bank and ADB estimates, the private loss of assets was $1.6 billion and public loss was $0.5 billion. The earthquake killed as many as 20,000 people and injured 167,000.
408 Volcanoes
13. The years 1990-99 witnessed over 21 volcanic eruptions in the region (World Disaster Reports 2000). Japan, Philippines and Indonesia are considered most vulnerable to volcanic eruptions. Philippines has more than 200 volcanoes distributed along five volcanic belts. Of these at least 17 are considered active. The 5 most active and destructive are Mayon, Taal, Hibok-Hibok, Bulusan and Canlaon. The 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption in Philippines, was one of the most devastating ones. Indonesia has 129 active volcanoes of which 70 are classified as dangerous. Between 1972 and 1991, twenty-nine volcanic eruptions were recorded, mostly in Java.
Droughts
14. Asia is very vulnerable to droughts. In the last ten years 31 droughts have been recorded. Being a slow onset hazard, its effects are also long lasting. India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Philippines, Indonesia, the South Pacific, Australia, Northern China, Korea and Bangladesh are the worst affected regions by drought. With prolonged droughts in Afghanistan, Pakistan and India since 1998 the food security has been affected greatly.
15. South Asia is presently reeling under the impact of droughts. The prolonged dry season in the region has led to famine and food shortages in Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. In the western states of India today 80 million people lack water, and hundreds of thousands of animals are perishing in what is considered to be the worst drought of the century. The World Food Program (WFP) is feeding 40,000 people in Afghanistan’s southern provinces of Kandahar, Helmand, Zabul, Uruzgan, and Mimroz (Christian Science Monitor, 2000).
Extreme Climate Events
16. Extreme climate events such as El Niño and La Niña affect the tropical parts of Asia and the Pacific regions to varying degrees. This also triggers secondary disasters like forest fires. The most recent of these incidences being in Indonesia, 1997-98 destroying forest covers in excess of 9 million hectares. The impact of these fires and associated transboundary haze were felt up to Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, Brunei Darussalam and the Philippines.
17. The following table presents relative intensity of hazards faced by selected countries of Asia and the Pacific.
409 Table 4. Relative Intensity of Hazards Faced by Some Countries in the Region
Country
Landslide
Accidents
Typhoon
Volcanoes
Frost
Flood
Civil Strife
Earthquake
Fire
Drought
Deforestation
Tsunami
Epidemic Australia S S S L S Bangladesh S S S L L L M L M M L China M S S L L S M L L Cook M L S L M L L Islands Fiji S S M S S M M Hong Kong M L M L M M L India M S S L M M M M M M Indonesia L M M L L S M M L L Lao PDR M L Malaysia M S* S L M L M Myanmar M M M M S S Nepal M L* M L M M M Pakistan M M M L M S L L L L L Philippines S S L S S S M M S L L L PNG L S M S S S S L L L L L L Sri Lanka M S S L S L L L Thailand M S* S L L L S M Vietnam M S L S S L L L L Solomon Is S S L S S S S L L Tonga S M M L S S S Vanuatu S S L S S S S L L M West L S L S S M L Samoa Source: Whitehouse & Burton, 1999 for water-related hazards; ADB, 1991 for other hazards. Legend: S = Severe; M = Moderate; L = Low Note: * Coastal Flooding.
410 REFERENCES
ADB, “Disaster Mitigation in Asia and the Pacific”, Manila 1991. ADPC, 2000. Community Based Disaster Management, Trainer’s Guide (M1-01). IFRC, “World Disasters Report 2000”. ReliefWeb: http://www.reliefweb.int/w/rwb.nsf, 2001 The Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) http://www.cred.be/ 2000 The JRC, “The Disasters Dispatch”, Jan.-Feb. 2001.
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