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August Report 2018 Contents August Report 2018 Contents Tax Free Trends Summary 03 Tax Free Sales Trends 05 Eid al-Adha 2018 vs Eid al-Adha 2017 06 Tax Free Sales by Destination and Source 07 Top 5 Visitor Nations per Destination Country 09 Currency Trends 11 Arrivals Forecast Europe Overview 13 France 14 United Kingdom 15 Italy 16 Spain 17 Germany 18 Austria 19 Finland 20 International Holiday Calendar 21 August Report 2018 Planet Intelligence | 2 Shopping & Arrivals Growth Summary - August 2018 Top 5 Destination Markets -2% Tax Free Vouchers/ Avg. Transaction Arrival Total Sales Sales Turnover Transaction Values (ATV) Numbers France +4% +1% +3% +3% United Kingdom -5% -11% +7% +6% -8% Italy +5% -0% +5% +7% Total Vouchers Germany -4% -16% +14% -5% Spain -12% -6% -6% +1% Top 5 Source Markets Tax Free Vouchers/ Avg. Transaction Arrival +7% Sales Turnover Transaction Values (ATV) Numbers Total ATV China -0% -8% +8% +7% USA +19% +3% +16% +11% Russia -19% -19% +0% -8% +3% UAE -5% -9% +5% -5% Total Arrivals Saudi Arabia +28% +21% +6% -7% August Report 2018 Planet Intelligence | 3 Shopping & Arrivals Growth Summary - YTD Top 5 Destination Markets -3% Tax Free Vouchers/ Avg. Transaction Arrival Total Sales Sales Turnover Transaction Values (ATV) Numbers France +0% -5% +5% +5% United Kingdom -13% -13% -1% +3% -8% Italy +6% +5% +2% +7% Total Vouchers Spain -9% -14% +6% +1% Germany -6% -9% +3% -0% Top 5 Source Markets Tax Free Vouchers/ Avg. Transaction Arrival +6% Sales Turnover Transaction Values (ATV) Numbers Total ATV China +3% -7% +11% +2% USA +5% +0% +5% +5% Russia -17% -15% -2% -6% +3% Hong Kong -8% -12% +4% +4% Total Arrivals Taiwan +3% -7% +11% +4% August Report 2018 Planet Intelligence | 4 Tax Free Shopping Sales Trends – August 2018 Overview Currency fluctuations Tax Free shopping sales in Europe remain subdued in undermine prospects for August, with a year-on-year decline of 2% recorded in the month, as the significant gains in the first half of 2017 recovery in second half of ‘18 have resulted in comparatively negative growth in the first The slowdown in sales growth that was seen in the second half of 2018. In addition, recent months have witnessed half of 2017 was expected to provide a platform for year-on- a weakening of the Russian ruble and Chinese renminbi, year growth in the second half of 2018, though these gains which will have impacted international purchasing power have failed to materialise as currency fluctuations have among shoppers from these two major source markets. affected the purchasing power of many key source markets. Of the main destination markets, France and Italy continued to In recent months many emerging economies have enjoy strong sales growth in August, with growth of 4% and 5% witnessed currency deprecations. The Chinese yuan respectively, marking the fourth consecutive month of gains recently reached a 12-month low against the US dollar, for both. Of the major source markets, sales to American believed to be the result of the People's Bank of China tourists grew significantly, by 19%, though were offset by a allowing the currency to fall, in an effort to soften the 19% decline in sales to Russian tourists. Sales to tourists from potential economic shocks from the escalating Sino- Saudi Arabia saw a major boost, thanks to the timing of the Eid American trade war. The currencies of countries such al-Adha holiday period, resulting in a sales increase of 28%. as Indonesia, South Korea, India and Turkey have also experienced currency depreciations in recent months. The downward pressure on the currencies of Brazil and Y/Y Sales Growth Argentina have been further compounded by downward 2017 2018 30% pressure on their economies, and Russia has seen a return to depreciations in the ruble as sanctions continue to 25% hamper economic activity. 20% Conversely, with strong economic growth, low 15% unemployment, the prospect of higher interest rates, and the fact that it is seen as an investment safe haven 10% in uncertain times, the US dollar has strengthened 5% considerably, reflected in the 19% increase in sales to these tourists in August. In addition, with the currencies of the 0% main Gulf Co-operation Council nations being pegged to the -5% US Dollar, sales to these nations have also enjoyed gains in recent months. -10% JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC August Report 2018 Eid al-Adha 2018 vs Eid al-Adha 2017 Sales between 18th August to 24th August 2018 vs 29th Aug to 4th Sep 2017 Eid al-Adha is the second of two Islamic holidays celebrated period. Despite declines in sales to the main Gulf Co- worldwide each year – the other being Eid al-Fitr, which operation Council (GCC) nations in recent months, sales to follows the end of Ramadan – and is considered the holier these tourists increased by 20% when compared to this of the two. This period represents a peak time for holidays holiday period last year, with each source market and all and shopping given that it also falls within the busy summer destination markets registering strong gains. Eid al-Adha By Destination Market Eid al-Adha By Source Market UK +4% Germany +27% Kuwait France +11% +23% Qatar Italy +49% UAE +21% Spain Saudi Arabia +15% +31% +18% August Report 2018 Sales Performance - August 2018 By Destination By Source Market FRA +3.8% CHN -0.4% GBR -4.8% USA +18.9% ITA +4.7% RUS -19.0% DEU -4.1% UAE -4.7% ESP -11.8% SAU +28.3% AUT +9.6% kuw +2.8% IRL +3.1% HKG -8.7% GRC +17.6% TWN +10.0% CZE -11.9% KOR +1.7% CHE -23.9% QAT +39.0% August Report 2018 Planet Intelligence | 7 Sales Performance - YTD By Destination By Source Market FRA +0.1% CHN +3.3% GBR -13.1% USA +5.4% ITA +6.3% RUS -17.0% ESP -9.1% HKG -8.4% DEU -6.0% TWN +3.3% AUT +13.7% KOR -7.4% IRL -3.4% THA -0.1% CZE -8.3% UAE -12.9% PRT -11.9% KWT -11.2% CHE +10.0% SAU -0.8% August Report 2018 Planet Intelligence | 8 Top 5 Visitor Nations per Destination Country – August 2018 Top 5 Share ATV Y/Y Sales Top 5 Share ATV Y/Y Sales FRA CHINA 36% € 1,582 9% AUT CHINA 37% € 613 16% USA 10% € 1,355 39% QATAR 8% € 794 90% SOUTH KOREA 5% € 687 1% SWITZERLAND 6% € 356 -8% HONG KONG 4% € 2,930 -29% RUSSIA 5% € 414 -16% TAIWAN 4% € 2,183 27% UAE 5% € 438 -12% GBR CHINA 30% € 350 -11% IRL CHINA 39% € 385 -6% KUWAIT 8% € 328 8% USA 34% € 124 14% SAUDI ARABIA 8% € 317 29% UAE 4% € 295 34% UAE 7% € 543 -1% CANADA 3% € 96 4% USA 6% € 352 -2% AUSTRALIA 3% € 134 -13% ITA CHINA 25% € 1,060 4% CZE CHINA 33% € 323 -3% USA 16% € 1,134 27% TAIWAN 12% € 223 5% RUSSIA 9% € 675 -10% RUSSIA 11% € 321 -39% SOUTH KOREA 3% € 792 21% USA 5% € 436 -25% TAIWAN 3% € 1,270 7% AZERBAIJAN 5% € 1,046 79% ESP CHINA 25% € 607 -5% GRC CHINA 30% € 495 22% RUSSIA 9% € 288 -17% RUSSIA 11% € 380 -20% USA 9% € 544 -1% USA 10% € 691 32% MEXICO 6% € 363 -24% AUSTRALIA 7% € 427 21% MOROCCO 5% € 226 18% MACEDONIA 4% € 160 9% DEU CHINA 38% € 726 -7% CHE CHINA 24% € 1,233 -6% UAE 8% € 794 -20% UAE 11% € 1,455 -33% KUWAIT 8% € 562 16% SAUDI ARABIA 9% € 1,363 -16% RUSSIA 5% € 567 -20% KUWAIT 7% € 1,643 -59% QATAR 4% € 1,014 74% QATAR 6% € 1,921 -45% August Report 2018 Planet Intelligence | 9 Top 5 Visitor Nations per Destination Country – YTD Top 5 Share ATV Y/Y Sales Top 5 Share ATV Y/Y Sales FRA CHINA 34% € 1,755 9% AUT CHINA 29% € 621 34% USA 9% € 1,328 14% RUSSIA 11% € 425 -10% HONG KONG 7% € 4,318 -13% SWITZERLAND 9% € 416 -9% SOUTH KOREA 5% € 744 -14% TAIWAN 7% € 664 18% TAIWAN 5% € 2,018 10% THAILAND 5% € 711 63% GBR CHINA 26% € 408 -13% IRL CHINA 38% € 409 -12% USA 7% € 376 -16% USA 34% € 116 10% KUWAIT 6% € 345 -15% CANADA 4% € 101 13% UAE 5% € 572 -13% AUSTRALIA 3% € 142 -11% HONG KONG 5% € 404 -9% MALAYSIA 2% € 338 19% ITA CHINA 29% € 1,125 11% CZE RUSSIA 24% € 363 -29% USA 12% € 1,063 22% CHINA 23% € 346 8% RUSSIA 10% € 767 -8% TAIWAN 16% € 231 11% TAIWAN 5% € 1,249 -3% SOUTH KOREA 6% € 194 -22% SOUTH KOREA 4% € 796 41% USA 5% € 492 4% ESP CHINA 30% € 717 -2% PRT CHINA 35% € 2,038 2% USA 8% € 589 -9% BRAZIL 19% € 352 -22% RUSSIA 7% € 368 -20% ANGOLA 16% € 374 -30% ARGENTINA 5% € 238 -27% RUSSIA 3% € 312 -25% MEXICO 4% € 404 -4% HONG KONG 3% € 5,170 11% DEU CHINA 35% € 641 -9% CHE CHINA 24% € 1,317 33% RUSSIA 10% € 535 -11% RUSSIA 7% € 1,361 -18% UAE 5% € 776 -22% UAE 7% € 1,901 1% THAILAND 4% € 956 -6% USA 6% € 1,360 32% TAIWAN 4% € 449 -5% THAILAND 5% € 1,143 15% August Report 2018 Planet Intelligence | 10 Currency vs Euro & GBP: Top Source Markets Currency movements: Last 52 Weeks CNY > EUR RUB > EUR CNY > GBP 8.0 80 9.0 7.9 78 8.9 7.8 76 8.8 7.7 8.7 74 7.6 8.6 72 7.5 8.5 70 7.4 8.4 68 7.3 8.3 7.2 66 8.2 USD > EUR HKD > EUR USD > GBP 1.26 9.8 1.45 1.24 9.6 1.40 1.22 9.4 1.35 1.20 9.2 1.30 1.18 9.0 1.25 1.16 8.8 1.20 1.14 1.12 8.6 1.15 August Report 2018 Planet Intelligence | 11 Arrivals Forecast In partnership with Know tomorrow’s travellers August Report 2018 Planet Intelligence | 12 Europe TOTAL GBR FIN Overview SEP-NOV 17 +10.5% SEP-NOV 17 +8.0% SEP-NOV 17 +17.0% Destination Market Insights SEP-NOV 18 +2.1% SEP-NOV 18 +3.5% SEP-NOV 18 -5.8% Forecasts for non-EU arrival numbers for the period from September through to November are positive, with a 2.1% increase predicted when compared with the same period last year.
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