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Evansville in 16-270 (Housing Needs Assessment)

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Evansville in 16-270 (Housing Needs Assessment) September 28, 2016 Ms. Donna Bailey Department of Metropolitan Development City of Evansville 1 NW MLK Jr. Blvd. Evansville IN, 47708 Re: Updated Housing Needs Assessment – Evansville, Indiana Dear Ms. Bailey, Bowen National Research is pleased to provide you with the updated Housing Needs Assessment of the city of Evansville we completed on your behalf. This update includes the following elements from the original Housing Needs Assessment that was completed in September of 2014, with a subsequent update completed in October 2015: Updated Demographic and Economic Trends Update Housing Supply (Rental, For-Sale and Senior Living) Updated Residential Pipeline Information (Planned and Proposed) Revised Housing Gap/Demand Estimates While this draft of the report includes all required work elements, we certainly will respond to any changes or additions you may require. We have enjoyed working on this project and look forward to hearing from you. Respectfully, Patrick M. Bowen President Enc. Bowen National Research 155 E. Columbus Street, Suite 220 Pickerington, Ohio 43147 (614) 833-9300 Housing Needs Assessment Rental & For-Sale Housing Needs Assessment Evansville, Vanderburgh County, Indiana Prepared For Ms. Donna Bailey City of Evansville, Indiana Department of Metropolitan Development 1 NW MLK Jr. Boulevard Evansville, Indiana 47708 Effective Date September 28, 2016 Job Reference Number (Author) 16-270 (Patrick Bowen) 155 E. Columbus Street, Suite 220 Pickerington, Ohio 43147 Phone: (614) 833-9300 Bowennational.com TABLE OF CONTENTS I. Introduction II. Executive Summary III. Study Area Delineation IV. Demographic Analysis V. Economic Analysis VI. Housing Supply Analysis VII. Other Housing Market Factors VIII. Housing Gap/Demand Analysis IX. Qualifications Addendum A – Telephone Survey of Senior Facilities Addendum B – Telephone Survey of Conventional Rentals Addendum C – Sources Addendum D – Glossary Addendum E – Subarea/Neighborhood Analysis I. INTRODUCTION A. PURPOSE This Evansville Housing Needs Assessment involves an update of key work elements from the original (2014) Evansville Housing Needs Assessment completed by our firm on behalf of the city of Evansville, Indiana Department of Metropolitan Development. The original report was last updated in October of 2015. This updated report intends to: Present and evaluate past, current and projected detailed demographic characteristics of Evansville. Present and evaluate economic characteristics and trends of Evansville. Determine current characteristics of all major housing components within Evansville (for-sale/ownership and rental housing alternatives). Calculate a housing gap by tenure and income segment within Evansville. By accomplishing the study’s objectives, area stakeholders, local public officials, area employers, and private housing developers can: 1) better understand Evansville’s evolving housing market, 2) modify or expand Evansville’s housing policies, and 3) enhance and/or expand Evansville’s housing market to meet future housing needs. B. METHODOLOGIES The following methods were used by Bowen National Research to collect and analyze data for this study: Study Area Delineation The primary geographic scope of this study is the city of Evansville (44.6 square miles), which is referred to as the Primary Study Area (PSA). Because of the size of the city and some of the unique attributes within portions of the city, we have divided the PSA in to five separate submarkets: Central Submarket, East Submarket, Near East Submarket, North Submarket, and West Submarket. These five submarkets, which are compared with each other and with the overall city of Evansville, are delineated in Section III of this report. I-1 Demographic Information Demographic data for population, households, housing, crime, and employment was secured from ESRI, Incorporated, the 2000 and 2010 United States Census, Applied Geographic Solutions, U.S. Department of Commerce, and the American Community Survey. Estimates for 2016 and projections for 2020 are also provided. This data has been used in its primary form and by Bowen National Research for secondary calculations. All sources are referenced throughout the report and in Addendum C of this report. Employment Information Employment information was obtained and evaluated for various geographic areas that were part of this overall study. This information included data related to wages by occupation, employment by job sector, total employment, unemployment rates, identification of top employers, and identification of large-scale job expansions or contractions. Most information was obtained through the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, Bowen National Research also conducted numerous interviews with local stakeholders familiar with employment characteristics and trends of the Evansville area. Housing Component Definitions This study is concerned with two major housing components: 1) for-sale/ownership (both single-family and multifamily) and 2) rental (both multifamily apartments and smaller, non-conventional units). For-sale/ownership housing includes single- family homes and condominiums. Multifamily rentals include single-family homes and multifamily apartments (generally 20+ units per building). Note that for the purposes of this analysis, we provide supplemental senior care housing information, including congregate care, assisted living and nursing home market data. I-2 Housing Supply Documentation During August and September of 2016, Bowen National Research conducted telephone research, as well as on-line research, to update key metrics of the Evansville housing supply. This research involved an update of the properties identified in our analysis and the addition of new properties. The following data was collected on each property. 1. Property Information: Name, address, total units, and number of floors 2. Owner/Developer and/or Property Manager: Name and telephone number 3. Population Served (i.e. seniors vs. family, low-income vs. market-rate, etc) 4. Available Amenities/Features: Both in-unit and within the overall project 5. Years Built and Renovated (if applicable) 6. Vacancy Rates 7. Distribution of Units by Bedroom Type 8. Square Feet and Number of Bathrooms by Bedroom Type 9. Gross Rents or Price Points by Bedroom Type 10. Property Type 11. Quality Ratings* 12. GPS Locations *Quality ratings used in this study were established after a careful examination of the housing properties and their surrounding neighborhoods. Factors influencing the ratings include curb appeal, unit and property amenities, age, interior and exterior building conditions, parking arrangements, architectural design, landscaping and grounds, management presence, accessibility, visibility, signage, public infrastructure, condition of adjacent properties, neighborhood interviews, and area services. Information regarding for-sale single-family homes was collected by Bowen National Research in-office staff during the aforementioned research period. Home listings were gleaned from realtor.com and MLS listings. Housing Demand Based on the demographic data for both 2016 and 2021, and taking into consideration the housing data from our field survey of area housing alternatives, we are able to project the potential number of new units the Evansville market can support. Rental Housing – We included renter household growth, the number of units required for a balanced market, and the need for replacement housing as the demand components for new rental housing units. As part of this analysis, we accounted for vacancies reported among all rental alternatives and considered product in the development pipeline. We concluded this analysis by providing the number of units that the market can support by three different income segments (less than $25,000, $25,000 to $49,999, and $50,000 and higher). I-3 For-Sale Housing – We considered potential demand from new owner-occupied household growth, the number of units required for a balanced market, and need for replacement housing in our estimates for new for-sale housing. We deducted the estimated number of available for-sale housing to yield a net support base of potential for-sale housing. Demand estimates were provided for three income stratifications (less than $30,000, $30,000 to $59,999, and $60,000 and higher). C. REPORT LIMITATIONS The intent of this report is to collect and analyze significant levels of housing data for the city of Evansville, Indiana. Bowen National Research relied on a variety of data sources to generate this report (see Addendum C). These data sources are not always verifiable; however, Bowen National Research makes a concerted effort to assure accuracy. While this is not always possible, we believe that our efforts provide an acceptable standard margin of error. Bowen National Research is not responsible for errors or omissions in the data provided by other sources. We have no present or prospective interest in any of the properties included in this report, and we have no personal interest or bias with respect to the parties involved. Our compensation is not contingent on an action or event resulting from the analyses, opinions, or use of this study. I-4 II. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Purpose: Bowen National Research was retained by the Evansville, Indiana Department of Metropolitan Development in 2016 to conduct an update to the 2014 comprehensive housing needs assessment that we completed of the city of Evansville and last updated in 2015. This Executive Summary provides
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