2014 Bowen Market Study-Housing Needs Assessment
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Housing Needs Assessment Rental & For-Sale Housing Needs Assessment Evansville, Vanderburgh County, Indiana Prepared For Mr. Kelley Coures City of Evansville, Indiana Department of Metropolitan Development 1 NW MLK Jr. Blvd Evansville, Indiana 47708 Effective Date September 23, 2014 Revised: October 17, 2014 Job Reference Number (Author) 14-340 (Patrick Bowen) 155 E. Columbus Street, Suite 220 Pickerington, Ohio 43147 Phone: (614) 833-9300 Bowennational.com TABLE OF CONTENTS I. Introduction II. Executive Summary III. Study Area Delineation IV. Demographic Analysis V. Economic Analysis VI. Housing Supply Analysis VII. Other Housing Market Factors VIII. Housing Gap/Demand Analysis IX. Housing Development Opportunities X. Stakeholder Interviews XI. Subarea/Neighborhood Analysis Downtown Study Area Arts District Study Area Jacobsville Study Area XII. Qualifications Addendum A – Telephone Survey of Senior Facilities Addendum B – Field Survey of Conventional Rentals Addendum C – Stakeholder Interview Instrument Addendum D – Sources Addendum E – Glossary Addendum F – Consolidated Plan Narratives I. INTRODUCTION A. PURPOSE The city of Evansville, Indiana Department of Metropolitan Development retained Bowen National Research in June of 2014 for the purpose of conducting a Housing Needs Assessment of the city of Evansville, Indiana. Supplemental analysis was provided for specifically designated areas within the city including the Downtown Redevelopment Area, Arts District Redevelopment Area and Jacobsville Redevelopment Area. With changing demographic and employment characteristics and trends expected over the years ahead, it is important for both public and private sectors to understand the current market conditions and projected changes that are expected to occur that will influence future housing needs. Toward that end, this report intends to: Provide an overview of present-day Evansville. Present and evaluate past, current and projected detailed demographic characteristics of Evansville. Present and evaluate employment characteristics and trends of Evansville. Determine current characteristics of all major housing components within Evansville (for-sale/ownership and rental housing alternatives). Calculate a housing gap by tenure and income segment within Evansville. Evaluate ancillary factors that affect housing market conditions and development, including an analysis of mobility patterns, school performances, crime, and availability of community services. Compile local stakeholder perceptions of housing market conditions and trends, opinions on future housing needs, and identify barriers to residential development in Evansville. Evaluate the smaller subareas within the Central Submarket including the Downtown Redevelopment Area, Arts District Redevelopment Area and Jacobsville Redevelopment Area. By accomplishing the study’s objectives, area stakeholders, local public officials, area employers, and private housing developers can: 1) better understand Evansville’s evolving housing market, 2) modify or expand Evansville’s housing policies, and 3) enhance and/or expand Evansville’s housing market to meet future housing needs. I-1 B. METHODOLOGIES The following methods were used by Bowen National Research to collect and analyze data for this study: Study Area Delineation The primary geographic scope of this study is the city of Evansville (44.6 square miles), which is referred to as the Primary Study Area (PSA). Because of the size of the city and some of the unique attributes within portions of the city, we have divided the PSA in to five separate submarkets: Central Submarket, East Submarket, Near East Submarket, North Submarket, and West Submarket. In addition, per the request of the city of Evansville, we have evaluated three smaller subareas within the Central Submarket. These smaller subareas include what we refer to as the Downtown Study Area, Arts District Study Area, and Jacobsville Study Area. These five submarkets and three smaller subareas, which are compared with each other and with the overall city of Evansville, are delineated in Section III of this report. Demographic Information Demographic data for population, households, housing, crime, and employment was secured from ESRI, Incorporated, the 2000 and 2010 United States Census, Applied Geographic Solutions, U.S. Department of Commerce, and the American Community Survey. Projections for 2015 and 2019 are also provided. This data has been used in its primary form and by Bowen National Research for secondary calculations. All sources are referenced throughout the report and in Addendum C of this report. Employment Information Employment information was obtained and evaluated for various geographic areas that were part of this overall study. This information included data related to wages by occupation, employment by job sector, total employment, unemployment rates, identification of top employers, and identification of large- scale job expansions or contractions. Most information was obtained through the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, Bowen National Research also conducted numerous interviews with local stakeholders familiar with employment characteristics and trends of the Evansville area. I-2 Housing Component Definitions This study is concerned with two major housing components: 1) for- sale/ownership (both single-family and multifamily) and 2) rental (both multifamily apartments and smaller, non-conventional units). For-sale/ownership housing includes single-family homes and condominiums. Multifamily rentals include single-family homes and multifamily apartments (generally 20+ units per building). Note that for the purposes of this analysis, specific sub-groups such as students, homeless and seniors requiring special care were also evaluated. Housing Supply Documentation During July and August of 2014, Bowen National Research conducted telephone research, as well as on-line research, of the Evansville housing supply. Additionally, market analysts from Bowen National Research traveled throughout Evansville in July and August of 2014 conducting research on the housing properties identified in this study, as well as obtaining other on-site information relative to this analysis. The following data was collected on each property: 1. Property Information: Name, address, total units, and number of floors 2. Owner/Developer and/or Property Manager: Name and telephone number 3. Population Served (i.e. seniors vs. family, low-income vs. market-rate, etc) 4. Available Amenities/Features: Both in-unit and within the overall project 5. Years Built and Renovated (if applicable) 6. Vacancy Rates 7. Distribution of Units by Bedroom Type 8. Square Feet and Number of Bathrooms by Bedroom Type 9. Gross Rents or Price Points by Bedroom Type 10. Property Type 11. Quality Ratings* 12. GPS Locations *Quality ratings used in this study were established after a careful examination of the housing properties and their surrounding neighborhoods. Factors influencing the ratings include curb appeal, unit and property amenities, age, interior and exterior building conditions, parking arrangements, architectural design, landscaping and grounds, management presence, accessibility, visibility, signage, public infrastructure, condition of adjacent properties, neighborhood interviews, and area services. Information regarding for-sale single-family homes was collected by Bowen National Research in-office staff during the aforementioned research period. Home listings were gleaned from realtor.com and MLS listings. I-3 Stakeholder/Interviews Between July and August of 2014, Bowen National Research staff conducted interviews of area stakeholders. These stakeholders included individuals from a variety of trades including public officials, private residential developers, neighborhood and civic association leaders, education providers, non-profit representatives, and other community leaders. Questions were structured to elicit opinions on a variety of matters including current housing conditions, housing challenges for area residents, barriers to housing development, future housing needs and recommendations to improve housing in Evansville. These interviews afforded participants an opportunity to voice their opinions and provide anecdotal insights about the study’s subject matter. Overall, nearly 20 individual interviews were completed and evaluated. Please note that individual names and organizations have not been disclosed in order to protect the confidentiality of participants and encourage their candor. The aggregate results from these interviews are presented and evaluated in this report in Section X, while the actual stakeholder interview questions are included in Addendum E. Housing Demand Based on the demographic data for both 2015 and 2019, and taking into consideration the housing data from our field survey of area housing alternatives, we are able to project the potential number of new units the Evansville market can support. Rental Housing – We included renter household growth, the number of units required for a balanced market, and the need for replacement housing as the demand components for new rental housing units. As part of this analysis, we accounted for vacancies reported among all rental alternatives and considered product in the development pipeline. We concluded this analysis by providing the number of units that the market can support by four different income segments (less than $25,000, $25,000 to $40,000, $40,000 to $50,000, and $50,000