Review Officer () 8 July 2013 Local Government Boundary Commission for Our ref: PJS Layden House Your ref: 12 013 157 76-86 Turnmill Street LONDON Please ask for Mr Snow EC1 5LG Email:

Dear Sir,

Further Electoral Review of Uttlesford: Draft Recommendations

I am writing to give the Council’s response to the draft recommendations published by the Commission on 16 April 2013.

The Council notes that the draft recommendations differ from the Council’s proposals in a number of respects but are formulated along very similar lines, indicating that the approach adopted by the Council has been broadly correct.

In two cases the recommended wards simply merge together two proposed wards. In respect of the proposed Chesterford and Littlebury, and Elmdon and Wenden wards, the Commission proposes to combine them together into a two member ward because of relatively high opposing variances and to avoid dividing Littlebury parish. Then, the Commission intends to create a three member ward from merging together the proposed two member ward of Stansted North with the single member Stort Valley ward. This is because the Commission considers the inclusion of Ugley parish in the Stort Valley ward to be inappropriate since there are no direct road links to other communities in the proposed ward.

In , the boundary between the Castle and Shire wards is subject to a minor adjustment to provide for a stronger boundary. The Council notes that the proposed adjustment affects approximately 170 electors. The Commission has also decided to retain Wicken Bonhunt in the proposed Clavering ward, rather than pairing it with Newport as proposed by the Council, but this change was requested in my letter of 14 January 2013 to reflect local ties and so is welcomed.

It is noted that the Commission has decided not to accede to the Council’s request to transfer a small area of Little Easton parish to Great Dunmow North ward, suggesting instead that the difficulty caused by development over-spilling the parish boundary should be addressed by a community governance review once the FER is complete and the electors in place.

The only area where major differences are proposed to the Council’s proposed scheme is in the Felsted and Stebbing area. The Council’s proposal for separate wards of Stebbing, including Little Dunmow, and Felsted and Flitch Green have been altered so that Felsted and Stebbing will be linked in a two member ward, and Little Dunmow will be linked with Flitch Green.

The Council does not wish to object to any of the proposals described above. It is acknowledged in respect of Little Easton parish that a boundary change prior to development taking place is far from ideal and the Council has already agreed in principle to conduct a community governance review to address this matter in due course.

With the exception of two of the proposed wards, the Council’s comments are limited to suggestions for revised ward names to better reflect the nature and community identities of the areas being represented. Those two matters are described in the following paragraphs.

Little Walden

The Council wishes to propose that the Commission retains the small settlement of Little Walden within the Saffron Walden Castle ward, rather than incorporate it within the proposed ward.

Whilst the Council fully acknowledges that Ashdon ward would have a high electoral variance of 16% without the inclusion of Little Walden, this small settlement is considered to be an integral part of Saffron Walden parish and should be retained in a Saffron Walden based ward for that reason.

This matter was covered in depth in my letter of 14 January 2013 as a proposed departure from the electoral equality criterion although the request for an exception to be made was rejected by the Commission.

Bush End

For similar reasons of community interests and identities, the Council proposes that Bush End be retained within the proposed Broad Oak and the Hallingburys ward rather than be incorporated within the proposed Takeley ward. It must be acknowledged that the retention of Bush End within Broad Oak and the Hallingburys ward would lead to a poor level of electoral equality within the Takeley ward. If the 111 electors forecast to be registered in Bush End by 2018 were to be switched between wards in this way the Takeley ward would have an electoral variance of 12% fewer than the district average.

Nevertheless, it is considered that for the sake of not breaking community ties in this rather unsatisfactory way, the small community of Bush End should continue to be linked with the remainder of Hatfield Broad Oak parish. I accept that the linkage of Bush End with Takeley ward is the Council’s own proposal, but this was always seen as a compromise designed to meet the electoral equality rules operated by the Commission. The Council now wishes the Commission to consider making an exception to allow community links to remain unbroken.

Ward names

The remaining comments concern the names of some of the proposed wards. The Council wishes to propose alternative names as described below to better reflect community values in the wards concerned.

It is proposed that Stansted South ward should be renamed as Stansted South and Birchanger to reflect the inclusion within part of Stansted of the whole of the existing ward of Birchanger and to maintain the historic name of Birchanger within the ward title.

It is also proposed to rename the proposed Chesterford and Elmdon ward as Littlebury, Chesterford and Wenden Lofts. The Council considered a number of possible permutations to name this particular ward and ended up with the name as proposed. In so doing, the Council wished to ensure that every part of the ward is acknowledged in the title as the area covered by the proposed ward is extensive in area, and includes no fewer than eight parishes and six parish councils. The Council also wishes to acknowledge and retain the historic name of Wenden Lofts in the title, in spite of the fact that only 65 electors live in this tiny parish.

The Council considers that a better arrangement of names for the proposed Little Dunmow and Flitch Green ward would be Flitch Green and Little Dunmow. This not only places the names in alphabetic order but also reflects the order of population size of the respective communities.

Finally, the Council wishes to propose that the proposed Great Dunmow South ward is renamed as Great Dunmow South and Barnston. This name incorporates the sizeable village community of Barnston which presently forms the largest part of a single member ward.

I have also reviewed the proposed parish electoral arrangements as set out on pages 17/18 of your draft recommendations.

The proposals for Hatfield Broad Oak parish (assuming the Commission decides to proceed with the division of the parish between new district wards) seem reasonable and do not need amendment.

However, the proposals for Great Dunmow parish do not seem to me to reflect accurately the balance between electors in the respective wards. Using the 2018 forecast figures, a 7/9 split between North and South wards, as proposed by the Council, seems a better arrangement than the 6/10 split proposed by the Commission, as the percentage by electors per proposed parish ward in 2018 is: North ward 3,813 electors = 44.2% and South ward 4,820 electors = 55.8%.

In the parish of Saffron Walden, the Council feels, on balance, that a retention of 15 councillors, as proposed by the Council, is preferable to the addition of a further town councillor, especially as this would mean the election of no fewer than seven councillors in the revised Shire ward.

In respect of Stansted Mountfitchet parish however, the Council agrees that a split of 8/7 between North and South wards more accurately reflects the electorate balance than does the Council’s proposal for a 9/6 split.

You asked me, by email on 28 June, to check figures already submitted to you in respect of two polling districts within Saffron Walden (APA and ANB). You have received a representation querying these figures on the basis that they are already (as at May 2013) higher than the forecast for 2018.

I have again checked the figures and requested a comment from the officer responsible for producing the original forecast. The figures for July 2013 show there are 2,696 electors in polling district ANB, a total of 40 more than the 2108 forecast, and that there are 1,987 electors in polling district APA, or 97 more than the forecast figure. There has been recent development in both of these polling districts (which are contiguous) but I do not think any of this was unanticipated in preparing our submission.

In contrast, some of the other polling districts in Saffron Walden presently have electorate totals well below those included in the forecast. The only comment I can usefully add at this stage is to say that the estimates of the electorate produced at the time of our submission in 2012 were the best available to the Council at the time they were sent.

The planning officer has commented as follows:

The original calculations used mid‐year population projections from ONS which contained quinary age bands so it was necessary to be 'creative' when establishing the size of the group at and above electoral age. I asked that the Census outputs for 2011 include single year ages (I'm sure I wasn't the only one !) so this time I've been able to take the appropriate age group in 2011 and above to estimate the size of the electoral group for Audley and Shire wards in 2018. This gives figures of 4304 and 4783 respectively showing a growth over this period (2011 to 2018) of 8.5 to 9%. This is still an estimate as it is not corrected for migration or mortality however I think it is a reasonable estimate. These calculations would have used the boundary commission methodology and the ONS mid‐year population projections factored in with housing projections at the time.

I hope that this explanation clarifies the position regarding the electorate forecasts for the Saffron Walden wards.

I trust that the Commission will be able to take the Council’s representations into account in determining the final recommendations for new electoral arrangements in Uttlesford. In the meantime, if you need any further information in clarification of the comments included in this letter please let me know.

Yours faithfully

Peter Snow Democratic and Electoral Services Manager for Chief Executive