Document of The World Bank
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Public Disclosure Authorized
Report No: ICR00004483
IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT
(IDA-54450 / IDA-44060) Public Disclosure Authorized
ON A
CREDIT
IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 94.8 MILLION
(US$ 148.33 MILLION EQUIVALENT)
TO THE
DEMOCRATIC SOCIALIST REPUBLIC OF SRI LANKA Public Disclosure Authorized FOR A
LK DAM SAFETY AND WATER RESOURCES PLANNING (DSWRPP) ( P093132 )
December 14, 2018
Water Global Practice
South Asia Region
Public Disclosure Authorized
CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS
(Exchange Rate Effective May 15, 2018)
Currency Unit = Sri Lankan Rupee (Rs)
Rs 172.65 = US$1
US$ 1.43 = SDR 1
FISCAL YEAR January 1 – December 31
Regional Vice President: Hartwig Schafer
Country Director: Idah Z. Pswarayi-Riddihough
Senior Global Practice Director: Jennifer J. Sara
Practice Manager: Takuya Kamata
Task Team Leader(s): Shyam KC
ICR Main Contributor: John Factora
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
AF Additional Finance CAS Country Assistance Strategy CEB Ceylon Electricity Board CPF Country Partnership Framework CPS Country Partnership Strategy DSRP Dam Safety Review Panel DSWRPP Dam Safety and Water Resources Planning EA Environmental Analyses EMP Environmental Management Plans ERR Economic Rate of Return FM Financial Management GIS Geographic Information System HMIS Hydrometeorological Information Systems IAs Implementing Agencies ICOLD International Committee of Large Dams ICR Implementation Completion Report ID Irrigation Department IDA International Development Association ISCs International Support Consultancies ISR Implementation Status and Results Report LSA Livelihood Support Assistance MASL Mahaweli Authority of Sri Lanka M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MMDE Ministry of Mahaweli Development and Environment MRRP Mahaweli Restructuring and Rehabilitation Project NCDS National Center for Dam Safety NPV Net Present Value NWSDB National Water Supply and Drainage Board NWUP National Water Use Plan O&M Operation and Monitoring OP Operational Policy PDO Project Development Objective PMU Project Management Unit SDR Special Drawing Rights TRC Technical Review Committee WARM-P Water Resources Management Project WBG World Bank Group WRB Water Resource Board
Table of Contents
DATA SHEET ...... 1 I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES ...... 6 A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL ...... 6 B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION ...... 8 II. OUTCOME ...... 9 A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs ...... 9 B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) ...... 10 C. EFFICIENCY ...... 17 D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING ...... 17 E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS ...... 17 III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME ...... 18 A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION ...... 18 B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION ...... 19 IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME ...... 20 A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) ...... 20 B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE...... 21 C. BANK PERFORMANCE ...... 23 D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME ...... 24 V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 24 ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS ...... 26 ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION ...... 38 ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT ...... 41 ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS ...... 42 ANNEX 5. BORROWER COMMENTS ...... 49 ANNEX 6. THEORY OF CHANGE ...... 53 ANNEX 7. TYPICAL OPERATIONAL DEFICIENCIES OF DAMS AND REMEDIAL MEASURES ...... 54 ANNEX 8. DETAILS OF DAM SAFETY REHABILITATION ...... 55 ANNEX 9. STATUS OF CURRENT FEASIBILITY STUDIES OF PROPOSED INVESTMENT PROJECTS ...... 64 ANNEX 10. TRAINING DAYS COMPLETED ...... 66 ANNEX 11. DELAYS IN CONTRACT COMPLETION ...... 67
The World Bank LK Dam Safety and Water Resources Planning (DSWRPP) ( P093132 )
DATA SHEET
BASIC INFORMATION
Product Information Project ID Project Name
P093132 LK Dam Safety and Water Resources Planning (DSWRPP)
Country Financing Instrument
Sri Lanka Investment Project Financing
Original EA Category Revised EA Category
Partial Assessment (B) Partial Assessment (B)
Related Projects
Relationship Project Approval Product Line Additional Financing P148595-LK: AF Dam 05-May-2014 IBRD/IDA Safety WRP - Addl Fin.
Organizations
Borrower Implementing Agency
MASL/Ministry of Mahaweli Development and Ministry of Finance and Planning Environment (MoMDE)
Project Development Objective (PDO)
Original PDO (i) Establish long-term sustainable arrangements for operation and maintenance of large dams; and (ii) improve water resources planning.
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The World Bank LK Dam Safety and Water Resources Planning (DSWRPP) ( P093132 )
FINANCING
Original Amount (US$) Revised Amount (US$) Actual Disbursed (US$) World Bank Financing
65,327,700 65,327,700 63,440,780 IDA-44060
83,000,000 83,000,000 73,002,344 IDA-54450 Total 148,327,700 148,327,700 136,443,124
Non-World Bank Financing Borrower 6,330,000 6,330,000 6,330,000 Total 6,330,000 6,330,000 6,330,000 Total Project Cost 154,657,700 154,657,700 142,773,123
KEY DATES
Approval Effectiveness MTR Review Original Closing Actual Closing 27-Mar-2008 26-Jun-2008 09-Sep-2011 30-Jun-2013 15-May-2018
RESTRUCTURING AND/OR ADDITIONAL FINANCING
Date(s) Amount Disbursed (US$M) Key Revisions 09-Sep-2012 28.41 Change in Loan Closing Date(s) 05-May-2014 55.05 Additional Financing Change in Results Framework Change in Components and Cost Change in Loan Closing Date(s) 19-Dec-2014 66.03 Reallocation between Disbursement Categories
KEY RATINGS
Outcome Bank Performance M&E Quality Satisfactory Satisfactory Substantial
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The World Bank LK Dam Safety and Water Resources Planning (DSWRPP) ( P093132 )
RATINGS OF PROJECT PERFORMANCE IN ISRs
Actual No. Date ISR Archived DO Rating IP Rating Disbursements (US$M) 01 13-Oct-2008 Satisfactory Satisfactory .95
02 05-May-2009 Satisfactory Satisfactory .95
03 26-Nov-2009 Satisfactory Satisfactory 9.11
04 22-May-2010 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 9.20
05 05-Dec-2010 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 9.20
06 13-Jun-2011 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 23.01
07 17-Dec-2011 Satisfactory Satisfactory 23.01
08 07-Jun-2012 Satisfactory Satisfactory 23.01
09 10-Dec-2012 Satisfactory Satisfactory 35.92
10 31-May-2013 Satisfactory Satisfactory 42.31
11 12-Dec-2013 Satisfactory Satisfactory 49.97
12 06-Mar-2014 Satisfactory Satisfactory 49.97
13 28-Sep-2014 Satisfactory Satisfactory 61.58
14 12-Mar-2015 Satisfactory Satisfactory 72.86
15 14-Aug-2015 Satisfactory Satisfactory 77.42
16 04-Mar-2016 Satisfactory Satisfactory 89.02
17 07-Sep-2016 Satisfactory Satisfactory 97.86
18 20-Jan-2017 Satisfactory Satisfactory 113.92
19 20-Jun-2017 Satisfactory Satisfactory 113.92
20 15-Dec-2017 Satisfactory Satisfactory 129.31
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The World Bank LK Dam Safety and Water Resources Planning (DSWRPP) ( P093132 )
SECTORS AND THEMES
Sectors Major Sector/Sector (%)
Public Administration 27 Central Government (Central Agencies) 27
Social Protection 1 Social Protection 1
Water, Sanitation and Waste Management 72 Other Water Supply, Sanitation and Waste 72 Management
Themes Major Theme/ Theme (Level 2)/ Theme (Level 3) (%) Finance 10
Finance for Development 10
Disaster Risk Finance 10
Urban and Rural Development 50
Rural Development 20
Rural Infrastructure and service delivery 20
Disaster Risk Management 30
Disaster Response and Recovery 10
Disaster Risk Reduction 10
Disaster Preparedness 10
Environment and Natural Resource Management 40
Water Resource Management 40
Water Institutions, Policies and Reform 40
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The World Bank LK Dam Safety and Water Resources Planning (DSWRPP) ( P093132 )
ADM STAFF
Role At Approval At ICR
Regional Vice President: Praful C. Patel Hartwig Schafer
Country Director: Naoko Ishii Idah Z. Pswarayi-Riddihough
Senior Global Practice Director: Constance A. Bernard Jennifer J. Sara
Practice Manager: Adolfo Brizzi Takuya Kamata Anthony Nihal Fernando Task Team Leader(s): Shyam KC Warnakulasuriya Alagappage ICR Contributing Author: John Factora
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The World Bank LK Dam Safety and Water Resources Planning (DSWRPP) ( P093132 )
I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES
A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL
A1. Country and Sector Context
1. The project reflects the importance of water resources development to Sri Lanka’s economic growth and poverty reduction. Development of dams, barrages, reservoirs, trans-basin canals and irrigation systems have been priorities of all governments since independence, and investments in water resources were featured in the 2006-2016 national development framework. These hydraulic assets serve the critical irrigation, hydropower, domestic and industrial water supply needs, provide flood control in the river basins, and sustain human settlements in rural areas and the dry zone, which cover nearly two-thirds of the country and are home to about 80 percent of the population. In the decades preceding the project, there was growing concern over the public safety of large dams, part of an extensive network of dams comprised of 80 large-sized, 270 medium-sized, and over 14,000 small dams located within 103 river basins. The majority of large dams were past the 50-year effective life span of new construction and rehabilitation, and the few repairs over the preceding four decades were done on a piecemeal basis as governments focused scarce resources on downstream irrigation development. With no regular, comprehensive rehabilitation and modernization efforts, large dams faced various structural deficiencies and shortcomings in operations and maintenance (O&M) facilities; many of the large dams assessed in the late 1990s were determined to be high-hazard with some deemed unsafe.1
2. Concern centered on the risk of dam breach and the possibility of added pressure on downstream dams, which may also succumb, threatening large populations. The Kantale dam failure in January 1986 led to loss of life, displacement, and substantial damage to agriculture, commercial and public infrastructure and private assets. The cost to the government of rebuilding the breached section of the dam was about three times the cost of the government’s relief, rehabilitation, and housing expenditures for those displaced. Government and private reports and consultations that followed recommended, inter alia, prompt action to ensure proper maintenance of dams and reservoirs and long-term arrangements for dam safety. Moreover, the establishment of early warning systems through reliable hydrological and meteorological data was critical to protecting the public from floods and dam failure. The tsunami disaster in December 2004 intensified calls for improved disaster preparedness and management.
A2. Rationale for Bank Support
3. The project was fully in line with the government’s strategic sector priorities, as laid out in the national development strategy for 2006-16 (called Mahinda Chinthanaya). The strategy included a framework to examine the development potential of select river basins through a master plan and strategy for integrated water resources management. The strategy also built on post-tsunami efforts to enhance disaster risk mitigation, including the creation of new institutions, legislation, assessments, and action plans to address various risks.
1 See Project Appraisal Document (Report No. 39708-LK). High-hazard is a term used by a majority of dam safety programs. While the definition varies slightly by program, it generally means if failure of a high-hazard dam occurs, there is potential for loss of life and property damage. Unsafe dams are those that have deficiencies which leave them more susceptible to failure.
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The World Bank LK Dam Safety and Water Resources Planning (DSWRPP) ( P093132 )
4. The Bank’s Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) Progress Report for Sri Lanka of 2005 recognized that lending would focus on infrastructure development. The Dam Safety and Water Resources Planning Project (DSWRPP) was to strengthen public sector management by building capacity, establishing long-term sustainable arrangements for dam O&M, contributing to protect the public against the risk of dam failure, and effectively managing the country’s water resources. The project was to address the critical technical needs of the water sector, many of which were of a “public goods” nature with high strategic priority. The project aligned with the Bank’s water resources strategy that recognized: (i) the role water resources management plays in sustainable growth and poverty reduction; and (ii) the need to assist countries in developing and maintaining appropriate stocks of well-performing hydraulic infrastructure. Moreover, the Bank had supported similar operations within the region and had the global experience to undertake the project. In fact, the project was preceded by the Sri Lanka Mahaweli Restructuring and Rehabilitation Project (MRRP, P034212, 1998-2004), which undertook preliminary studies on dams and recommended a dam safety project. The MRRP also recommended modernizing the hydrometeorological network and enhancing the capacity for related data for planning and management of dam operations, public safety, hydraulic assets, and drought and flood hazards.
A3. Contribution to Higher Level Objectives
5. The project was to help protect the public from potential water and dam induced hazards and enhance the long- term capacity for sustainable planning and management of water resources and related hydraulic infrastructure. These are all critical to agriculture, industry, energy, transport, and to the health, safety, and productivity of communities, which, in turn, contribute to economic growth and poverty reduction.
A4. Theory of Change 6. Please see Annex 6.
A5. Key Expected Outcomes and Outcome Indicators
7. The key performance indicators for measuring progress in achieving the project development objectives included: (i) reduced number of dams with unacceptable risk index; (ii) number of dams with risk-based O&M plans operationalized; (iii) improved water database utilized by implementing agencies for flood forecasting and dam operations; and (iv) national water use plan (NWUP) and at least one river basin development plan adopted by Cabinet.
A6. Components 8. The project had four components and comprised two IDA credits, the original for SDR 41.1 million ($65.33 million at approval) and an additional financing (AF) for SDR 53.7 million ($83 million at approval). Total IDA financing was SDR 94.8 million ($148.33 million at approvals) while the government committed $6.33 million in counterpart funding. Total disbursed was $136.4 million in IDA funds (or 92 percent disbursement), plus the $6.33 million from government.
9. The main responsible agency was the Ministry of Mahaweli Development and Environment (MMDE) and the Implementing Agencies (IAs) were Mahaweli Authority of Sri Lanka (MASL), Irrigation Department (ID), Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB), National Water Supply and Drainage Board (NWSDB), and Water Resource Board (WRB). The Project Management Unit (PMU), established under MMDE, coordinated overall activities.
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The World Bank LK Dam Safety and Water Resources Planning (DSWRPP) ( P093132 )
Component 1: Dam Safety and Operational Efficiency (projected $125 million, actual $115.9 million)
10. The component was to address various structural deficiencies and shortcomings in O&M facilities, thus enhancing public safety of selected high-risk large dams and improving their operational efficiency. It was also to promote sustainable institutional arrangements for dam safety management and O&M. The component comprised: (i) essential remedial works for 63 high- and medium-risk large dams; (ii) provision of basic safety and operational facilities for 80 large dams (including the 63 dams); and (iii) collection of basic engineering and operational information essential for sustainable operation and management of the 80 large dams; (iv) risk assessment on the remaining portfolio of large dams and training in dam safety and O&M; (v) development of O&M manuals; (vi) preparation of codes of practice and operating procedures and manuals; (vii) establishment of an inter-organizational arrangement for regular dam safety inspection and dam safety regulation; (viii) establishment of two water quality laboratories within the MASL.
Component 2: Hydro-Meteorological Information System (projected $11.4 million, actual $14.4 million)
11. The component would enhance staff capacity and physical and analytical infrastructure for monitoring hydrometric data, detecting and forecasting water hazards and assessing water resources for multi-sectoral planning, development and management. This component comprised the: (i) establishment of 167 new and upgraded hydrometric stations to strengthen the hydrometric network; (ii) establishment of data banks and improved analytical capability; (iii) establishment of procedures and provision of tools and training for real-time analysis of flood situations in some major reservoirs; and (iv) establishment of a core groundwater monitoring system.
Component 3: Multi-sector Water Resources Planning (projected $10.5 million, actual $7.5 million)
12. The expected outcome of this component included the: (i) development of a NWUP to achieve the country’s long- term development goals and objectives based on an analysis of updated estimates of present and future water demand and supply in the 103 river basins in the country; (ii) updating of the Mahaweli Water Resources Development Plan for the Mahaweli Ganga and adjoining connected river basins, based on an optimization study of water supply and demand in all sectors; and (iii) preparation of a multi-sector, integrated and comprehensive Mundeni Aru Basin Development Plan, and feasibility studies of priority investments; (iv) improvement of two training centers.
Component 4: Project Management and Monitoring (projected $7.8 million, actual $4.9 million)
13. The component was to help ensure smooth implementation of project activities as well as monitoring project processes and outputs.
B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION
B1. Project Restructurings, Additional Financing, and Other Changes
14. There were several key changes during implementation. The first was an approval in September 2012 of a two- year extension of the project closing date from June 30, 2013 to June 30, 2015. The extension was needed to make up for delays in recruiting three teams of international consultants (one for each main component) and to begin implementation. The second change was the May 2014 approval of an AF for $83 million in IDA credits which financed:
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The World Bank LK Dam Safety and Water Resources Planning (DSWRPP) ( P093132 )
(i) cost overruns totaling $25 million to complete the rehabilitation of 14 dams from the original project;2 and (ii) scale- up of successful project activities, including 31 additional dams and 20 hydrometeorological information systems (HMIS) stations.3 The AF also extended the project closing date to May 15, 2018 and changed results indicator values. Another project restructuring in December 2014 allowed for a reallocation of credit proceeds between disbursement categories and components to formalize the increase in the number of upgraded or new hydro-meteorological stations from 50 to 122. Following the December 2014 restructuring, the government requested the installation of an additional 80 hydrometeorological stations. The project ultimately installed an additional 45, bringing the total to 167 stations.4
B2. Revised PDOs and Outcome Targets
15. There was no change to the PDO or to the Theory of Change throughout project implementation. However, the AF introduced one new intermediate indicator to capture the preparation of feasibility studies for future investments. In addition, the target values of some of the indicators were revised to reflect increased end of project values. II. OUTCOME
A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs Rating: High
16. The Sri Lanka Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) Progress Report of 2005 (Report No. 34054-LK) recognized that IDA financing would focus largely on infrastructure. The indicative lending program of the CAS included the DSWRPP for FY07. The project was to establish long-term sustainable arrangements for dam O&M to reduce the risk of dam failures, strengthen capacity of key agencies to manage water resources and major water assets, which the government saw as essential in promoting economic growth and poverty reduction in its national development strategy for 2006- 16. There was strong rationale for the project; it would address critical technical needs of the water sector, many of which were of a “public goods” nature with strategic priority.
17. The AF was prepared in keeping with the Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) for FY13-16 (Report No. 66286-LK), which was focused on (i) facilitating sustained private and public investment and (ii) improving living standards and social inclusion. The CPS recognized that, with the end of almost three decades of internal conflict, the country had started shifting from a focus on reconstruction to laying the foundation for growth and middle-income status. The CPS proposed refocusing the Bank’s engagement on creating the enabling environment for increased foreign and domestic
2 There were several reasons for the cost overrun: (i) during project preparation, not all dams were inspected in detail and the actual costs were higher than what was estimated; (ii) the scope of work at most dams was larger than estimated and required works had increased over time, which is common for rehabilitation projects; and (iii) the construction costs had increased more than the 11 percent allocation for price contingencies.
3 The additional financing project paper noted that about 30 additional dams would be rehabilitated. In early 2016, the exact number of additional dams to be rehabilitated turned out to be 31, when the ID dropped one and added two dams due to risk levels. The final number of additional dams was noted in the Aide Memoire for the May 26-June 3, 2016 mission
4 See Aide Memoire for the October 1-6, 2015 mission. The government requested an additional 80 hydrometeorological stations but available financing could cover no more than 50.
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The World Bank LK Dam Safety and Water Resources Planning (DSWRPP) ( P093132 )
investment and enhancing the efficiency of the state, while increasing resilience to natural disasters and climate change. The rehabilitation and modernization of infrastructure, including dams and other hydraulic assets, and improved water resources management, responded directly to the CPS goals. Furthermore, the AF was prepared as part of the broader effort to consolidate peace and equitable growth through investments in conflict affected parts of the country. Hence, some of the 31 dams selected under the AF were in the northern and eastern parts of the country.
18. The project remains relevant under the Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for FY17-20 which emphasizes infrastructure strengthening under Objectives 1.3 (scaling up infrastructure), 2.3 (improving living standards in lagging areas), and 3.2 (strengthening climate resilience and disaster risk management). The project’s objectives also remain relevant to the government’s priorities, which seek to balance growth with environmental conservation and climate resiliency, and to manage the country’s natural resources for sustained growth and livelihoods. These are crystalized in recent strategies and action plans, such as the Public Investment Plan 2016-2020, the National Plan of Action for the Social Development of the Plantation Community 2016-2020, and the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) to address climate change. The Bank is preparing the new Water Resources Management Project (WARM-P) that builds on the DSWRPP by rehabilitating hydraulic assets and improving water resources management, including the restoration of watersheds, to contribute to climate resilience, sustainable growth, and poverty reduction.
B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) Rating: Substantial
19. The PDO consisted of two parts: (1) Establish long-term sustainable arrangements for operation and maintenance of large dams; and (2) improve water resources planning. The outcome indicators used to monitor and assess achievement of the PDO included: (a) reduced number of large dams with unacceptable risk index; (b) need-based O&M plans operationalized in select dams; (c) improved water database utilized by implementing agencies for flood forecasting, dam operations and water allocations; and (d) national water use master plan and at least one river basin development plan adopted by the cabinet. Overall the PDO was substantially achieved.
B1. Assessment of PDO 1: Establish long-term sustainable arrangements for O&M of large dams Rating: Substantial
(i) Dam Safety and Operational Efficiency
20. The first part of the PDO was to be achieved, in part, through remedial works of 63 high-risk large dams, the provision of basic facilities to all 80 large dams, and the collection of essential basic engineering information for all 80 dams.5 The scope of remedial works varied by dam, but typical safety issues common in earthen dams include: (i) seepage boils and leakages in the downstream of dams; (ii) deformity and some localized erosion of upstream and downstream slopes; (iii) slope sloughing / slips, erosion of abutments, settlement and cracks along dam crests; (iv) cracks in concrete spillway and outlet gate sections, etc. In the case of gravity dams, common issues were: (i) malfunctioning of dam monitoring instruments and (ii) need for repair and replacement of spillway and outlet gates
5 The assessment and selection of the original 32 dams are described in Annexes 1 and 4 of the project appraisal document (PAD), Report No. 39708-LK, February 26, 2008.
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The World Bank LK Dam Safety and Water Resources Planning (DSWRPP) ( P093132 )
and gate hoisting mechanism. Moreover, almost all the large dams lacked basic safety facilities, such as: (i) monitoring and deformation measuring instruments including micro-seismographs and pore water pressure gauges; (ii) functioning communication and observation systems (wireless or telephone at site, upstream and downstream flush lighting system with standby generators); (iii) all weather access roads; and (iv) equipment for minor O&M and emergency situations. Many reservoirs had undergone excessive sedimentation and reservoir rim deformation and did not have updated engineering and operational information (such as reservoir elevation-capacity curves). The project undertook remedial works to address these deficiencies in the 63 large dams, as described in Annex 8.
21. Remedial works reduced risks in all 63 dams. For each dam, risk assessments were carried out before works began and after completion. The methodologies employed included both quantitative and semi-quantitative assessments for the original 32 dams and a semi-quantitative assessment for the 31 dams under the AF.6 Based on the semi-quantitative assessments, risks were reduced by 65 percent on average for all 63 dams. There was a higher risk reduction percentage for the 32 dams under the original project (81 percent) compared to the 31 dams under the AF (48 percent), reflecting the higher risk profile among the former set of dams. It should be noted that for Outcome indicator 1, “Large dams with unacceptable risk index”, the word “unacceptable” was never clearly defined and no threshold score was proposed. Neither the quantitative or semi-quantitative assessments had risk indices that easily corresponded to risk “categories” (acceptable / unacceptable, extreme risk, high-risk, moderate risk, etc.).
22. There were other project activities that contributed to long-term sustainable arrangements for dam O&M. The establishment of modern HMIS allows for automated, accurate, and real-time collection of rainfall, water volume and flow data that is transmitted through a network to data centers at the MASL and ID for flood forecasting, dam operations, and water allocations. This represents a tremendous improvement over the manual readings, which were prone to errors and delays in data collection, transmission, and analysis. Data is also better integrated with greater application and usage by the IAs. Authorities are now able to more accurately forecast floods and droughts and make decisions accordingly, for example, on available water for irrigation purposes in a specific scheme or whether to call for an evacuation of downstream residents due to an impending flood. This change is captured in the third PDO outcome indicator: “Improved water database utilized by IAs for flood forecasting, dam operations and water allocations”. The expectation was for hydrometeorological stations to be installed at every dam site and that enough data would be collected over time (roughly two years) to enable IAs to use the databases to help manage dam operations. While HMIS were installed in all 63 dams, the target value was kept to the 32 dams under the original project. All 32 dams now have sufficient data collected over several years to allow for effective utilization by their IAs.
23. A Flood Control Center was also established that connects six major dams on the Mahaweli river basin through a common control center where real time data on upper catchment conditions, reservoir inflows, gate operations, etc., is collected and analyzed, and decisions are taken to optimize reservoir operations. In times of heavy rain, the control center could, for example, release flood waters in advance and in a controlled manner to avoid sudden downstream
6 The quantitative assessment is based on a methodology developed by the United States Bureau of Reclamation. The semi- quantitative assessments were undertaken by Jason Gibb and Associates. A quantitative risk analysis yields a numerical estimate of the risk of adverse consequence, considering the probability of load, probability of dam failure, and magnitude of adverse consequence given dam failure. Annex 7 includes risk ratings for all dams.
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The World Bank LK Dam Safety and Water Resources Planning (DSWRPP) ( P093132 )
inundations. The Center is fully staffed and operational and is the first integrated dam management system in Sri Lanka. Further discussion of HMIS is provided in the next section.
24. Emergency action plans were prepared for 13 dams for which dam engineers were trained to update on a regular basis. A central electronic database now stores core engineering data related to dam design and operation (as-built blueprints, records of flood history, geotechnical information, surveys and physical measurements, estimates and investment information, and other data), which is a significant improvement over the dispersed storage of hard and soft files by individual dam owners. Lastly, training and capacity building were a key aspect of establishing long-term sustainable arrangements. All told, there were 487 training hours devoted to dam safety, operations, maintenance; more than half took place overseas. Also see Section E for a discussion on institutional strengthening.
25. The project experienced a few shortcomings in establishing sustainable arrangements for O&M of large dams. The first dealt with the O&M plans that were to be prepared for each of the 63 rehabilitated dams. This was the second outcome indicator of the project. For the initial phase of the project, an international consultancy prepared the O&M plans for the 32 dams (in addition to conducting the risk assessment studies, verifying detailed designs, preparing cost estimates and specifications for tenders, inspecting works during and after completion). These responsibilities were devolved to the individual IAs7 for the 31 dams rehabilitated under the AF, due to a Cabinet-imposed limit on international consultancy contracts. While the IAs proved themselves capable of undertaking these responsibilities, the post-renovation O&M plans were not treated with appropriate urgency and were delayed. As of this writing, all 31 plans have been reviewed by the independent Dam Safety Review Panel (DSRP) and are being used by the relevant IAs.
(ii) Institutional Arrangements
26. There were also delays in establishing a national-level dam safety institution (or Dam Safety Inspectorate, as referred to at appraisal), an intermediate results indicator of the project. Now referred to as the National Center for Dam Safety (NCDS), the institution was first attempted under the MRRP without success and was subsequently included in the design of the DSWRPP to, inter alia, help establish codes of practice and essential guidelines and procedures for dam O&M and dam safety, including inter-organizational arrangements for regular dam inspections, asset management, and assistance for the establishment of dam safety regulation. Formal approval is expected by end-2018 and its set-up has been slow and incremental. It comprises a high-level National Dam Safety Steering Committee and a Dam Safety Secretariat. Suitable offices have been identified near the city of Kandy. And while staffing requirements have purportedly been approved by the Management Services Department, transfer of staff to the Secretariat and recruitment are pending. In the meantime, the PMU has arranged a work program of dam inspection by a team of senior engineers from the IAs to revisit the rehabilitated dams for inspection. This is a temporary measure that is no substitute for the envisioned NCDS. Despite delays, progress over the past eight months indicates the NCDS will be fully operational soon. The WARM-P provides a platform to continue advising and supporting its operationalization.
7 Of the 63 dams rehabilitated, 31 were owned by the Irrigation Department, 21 by the Mahaweli Authority, 5 by the Ceylon Electricity Board, 3 by the Northern Provincial Council, 2 by the Kandy Municipal Council, and 1 by the National Water Supply
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The World Bank LK Dam Safety and Water Resources Planning (DSWRPP) ( P093132 )
While bureaucratic inertia and intransigence provide an explanation for the limited progress, the underlying issue seems to be the recurring challenge of establishing a comprehensive framework for managing water resources.
27. One of the envisioned tasks of the NCDS was to help with budget planning and allocation for O&M and dam safety. Although not an explicit output of the project, sufficient budget for O&M is key to sustainability of the project’s investments, including the remedial works for dam safety. The Bank was unable to obtain evidence of budgetary allocation for need-based O&M expenditure. And while it could be argued that the relatively recent completion of remedial works precludes the need for immediate budget allocation, discussions with officials from the ID indicate that, at least by one estimation, only 25 percent of the requested budget for O&M is approved in any given year. Visits to dam sites and talks with field operators also indicate insufficient resources for even relatively routine maintenance, such as repairing bund roads, clearing / preventing overgrowth of vegetation along the banks of reservoirs, etc. This issue is expected to be addressed as the NCDS takes shape and with support from the WARM-P.
28. Despite these shortcomings, the project substantially achieved the first objective of establishing long-term sustainable arrangements for O&M of large dams. The rehabilitation and modernization of 63 large dams improved the stability of the dams per international dam safety standards and extended the effective design life period by another 50 years, effectively reducing the dams’ risk index and concerns over public safety. All 63 dams have O&M plans that have been operationalized and all 80 of the country’s large dams have proper O&M equipment. Despite delays in establishing the NCDS, considerable capacity building, institutional strengthening, and operational-level institution building (new flood control centers, HMIS databanks, training centers, etc.) were successfully carried out to establish long-term sustainable arrangements for dam O&M. Other issues beyond the scope of the project, such as adequate budgetary allocation for need-based O&M and establishment of an overarching national water sector framework for integrated management of water resources, will continue to be addressed through on-going dialogue with the government, particularly under the WARM-P. All told, an estimated 500,000 people who live near the dams and whose lives would be directly affected by a dam breach have benefited by the achievement of the first objective. Beyond this group of people, the government considers “direct beneficiaries” to be the 1.3 million people whose livelihoods directly depend on the dams, reservoirs, and in many cases, the associated irrigation schemes. These include farmers, fishermen, aqua-culturalists, etc. Indeed, field visits and beneficiary feedback indicate positive effects of dam modernization on livelihoods, such as improved irrigation and agricultural intensification.
B2. Assessment of PDO 2: Improve water resources planning Rating: High
29. The second part of the PDO was to be achieved through, inter alia, improved physical and analytical infrastructure for monitoring hydrometeorological data, detecting and forecasting water hazards, and assessing water resources, including groundwater. In addition, water resources planning would be enhanced through the completion of a national water use plan and two water resources development plans for future priority investments in select river basins.
(i) Hydrometeorological Information System Improvement
30. The project succeeded in establishing and upgrading hydrometeorological stations. In proper planning and usage of water-related infrastructure, especially in the operations of reservoirs, hydrological data analysis and applications
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play a vital role. These data are extremely useful in forecasting floods, operating dams, allocating bulk water, and managing irrigated agriculture. All told, the project financed the installation of 167 hydrometric stations (a scale up from the target of 142 revised at the time of the AF), including the upgrading of 35 existing stations, replenishing the basic equipment and tools used for stream monitoring and installing more robust and modern automated data- collection tools. The latter included: data loggers to control automated sensors and locally store data; various water- level, precipitation, and other sensors to provide data to the loggers; solar-powered and other power supply subsystems; technologies to telemeter data from stations to a databank; capacity to download data directly from the data logger; and other tools and equipment, including lightning protection. As mentioned in the previous section, the upgraded system represents a significant improvement over the manual readings, which were prone to errors and delays in data collection, transmission, and analysis. One Aide Memoire reported differences by approximately 200mm in hourly rainfall in the Kelani River Basin as reported by manual observation versus modern HMIS.8
31. There was tangible evidence of improved local capacity. Officers for relevant IAs were trained on data collection, database management, flood forecasting, catchment water yield computations, and rainfall-runoff models. In total, there were 260 training hours conducted on topics related to HMIS, including 30 hours conducted overseas. By the AF phase of the project, the IAs took a lead role on several key activities. These included site surveys, development of a plan for each station, preparation of the design package, and some of the civil works and instrument installation. Two data centers were established at the Hydrology Divisions in the ID and Water Management Secretariat in MASL and all necessary equipment was installed. As discussed in the previous section, these two data centers are now receiving and utilizing data from the 32 dams rehabilitated under the original project.
32. Hydrometeorological stations were also installed for the 31 dams under the AF and since some time is required to collect data, the use of the data banks to monitor and manage these dams are limited. The management of the HMIS themselves was dependent on the capacity of IA staff to collect and analyze data and to monitor and manage the hydrometric databases. In this regard, the project succeeded in providing modern data collection and analysis infrastructure, and the framework for improving analytical capacity, including advanced applications of hydrologic and meteorological data, and integration of historical and real-time data with remote sensing data and existing spatial dataset of topography, land use, soils, and population, to develop rainfall-runoff models to compute reservoir inflow and outflow, all necessary for decision making for flood hazard management and dam operation. As of the project closing date, HMIS data was accessible to IA staff only but the HMIS website will soon allow access to the general public.
33. As was seen in some dams, there are concerns over the sustainability of the HMIS due to inadequate funding for O&M. Although the Bank could not verify budget allocation for such purposes, a discussion with field officers at HMIS sites indicated insufficient resources to undertake anything beyond menial repairs. Moreover, some HMIS belonging to the ID have not been correctly handed over to regional ID offices and, as a result, are not being properly maintained. The HMIS should be transferred, with care-takers appointed, and guidance provided for upkeep of stations.
(ii) Groundwater Monitoring
8 Aide Memoire, June 3, 2016.
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34. Another important means of improving water resources management was groundwater monitoring. This entails monitoring, assessing, and safeguarding groundwater resources, which had been over-exploited in some parts of the country. Many aquifers in Sri Lanka are shallow and highly vulnerable to pollution. Over extraction for irrigated agriculture in many coastal areas induces saltwater intrusion and puts many aquifers at risk. Other natural and human- induced contaminants include fluoride, iron, nitrates, industrial contaminants; fecal coli from bacteria; and a range of agricultural chemicals. Exacerbating these issues is the lack of systematic and coordinated monitoring of groundwater level and quality as well as little public awareness regarding groundwater resources.
35. The project identified and monitored eight pilot areas in different provinces with groundwater issues. These issues included bacteriological and extensive fertilizer usage, extensive agriculture, over-extraction of groundwater, kidney diseases,9 industrial pollution, salinity, water quality assessments. For each pilot, the project established a groundwater monitoring network and information system to inventory groundwater use and catalogue issues and complaints; monitored groundwater quality and quantity, and disseminated results to researchers, policymakers, and universities; developed hydrological maps; established a groundwater database, coupled with geographic information system (GIS) and other applications; built the analytical capacity of the WRB staff for groundwater monitoring and analysis; and undertook a public awareness campaign on groundwater. On capacity building, 81 training hours were conducted on a range of topics on groundwater monitoring and analysis. The project also provided funds to upgrade and equip the existing water quality laboratory in Anuradhapura operated by the WRB, by which they could analyze chemical, bacterial, and metallic content in water samples. Public outreach included "Jala Sayana" (Water Clinics) programs set up by request, which provide knowledge of local water levels, water quality, and purification methods.
36. Design methodology was established for a groundwater monitoring program to carry out a systematic long-term monitoring network in the country. Field activities included in-situ testing, detailed laboratory analysis, groundwater level monitoring, drilling of wells, installation of automated data loggers, well levelling, and pumping tests made the program successful. Subsequently, hydrological maps were developed, awareness program for community and officials in the area were conducted, and preparation of base maps and geographic surveys in pilot areas were carried out for effective implementation of the sub-component. One-hundred wells were drilled in the pilot areas and water samples tested to assess the standard water quality, heavy metals, bacteriological analysis, and pesticide analysis. The establishment and functionality of regional-level groundwater monitoring committees was undertaken by the WRB and government has committed to continued work by WRB such that longer term and sustainable monitoring work could be done to better understand trends and draw clearer conclusions on ground water quality.
(iii) Multi-sector Water Resources Planning
37. Current demographic and economic trends indicate greatly increased demand for agriculture, safe and reliable water supply for domestic, commercial and industrial use, and increased and more reliable electricity. These trends,
9 Public interest in groundwater has grown in recent years given the alarming rise in “chronic kidney disease of unknown etiology” (CKDu) of which some districts report a 15-22 percent prevalence rate. While no definitive cause for CKDu has been identified, geographical mapping indicates a relationship between CKDu and agricultural irrigation water sources. More information is available at https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5102238/
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along with heightened sensitivity to environmental conservation, have resulted in increased competition for water among different uses and sectors, and disputes over where water resources are available for development. The project helped to address these issues by (1) developing a NWUP; (2) updating the Mahaweli Water Resources Development Plan for the Mahaweli Basin; and (3) preparing a multi-sector development plan for the Mundeni Aru Basin.
38. The NWUP entailed broad stakeholder consultations conducted at both the district and national levels. It was based on an assessment of the availability of water in 103 river basins; studied 30-year potential water demands and development policies in the country; took into account social and environmental assessments to develop baseline scenarios; studied potential impacts; identified alternative strategies for planning and implementation; and proposed potential water resource investments to consider for the short, medium, and long-term horizons. The updated Mahaweli Water Resource Development Plan (originally completed in 1968) consists of three development options that would use water from the Mahaweli Basin for the development of North-Central and Central Provinces. The Mundeni Aru basin plan includes regulating water resources for domestic water, additional supply for irrigation, and environmental flow requirements. Staff were trained in water resources planning and management and supported the preparation of all three plans which were then reviewed by the Technical Review Committee (TRC), representing the main IAs.10 Final plans were presented in a national workshop and approved by the Cabinet for implementation.
39. Based on the three plans, 26 water investment projects with an approximate cost of $240 million were proposed. Eight feasibility studies have been completed and are in various stages of review by the TRC. Subsequently, the Bank together with IAs prepared the Report "Strategic Options for Water Conservation, Management, and Development in Sri Lanka" which details the government policy, priorities, development plans, institutional arrangements, challenges, and strategies in irrigation and water resources development in the country. The report provides a framework for discussing future water sector priorities between the government and development partners.
40. The project fully achieved the second PDO of improved water resources planning. Hydrometeorological data collection and analysis have significantly improved, owing to the establishment and upgrading of 167 hydrometric stations, establishment of data centers that are in full operation in the two main water resources ministries, and the provision of tools and training for real-time analysis of flood situations in the influent streams of key reservoirs. Groundwater monitoring and analysis have also improved through the eight pilot programs, paving the way for scale- up and possible development of regulations to safeguard groundwater resources. Lastly, the development of the National Water Use Plan, the updated Mahaweli Water Resources development plan, and Mundeni Aru Basin Development Plan have provided government with a strategic framework to assess options for future development of water resources. As previously discussed, issues beyond the scope of the project, including establishment of an overarching national policy, legal and institutional framework for water resources management, will continue to be addressed through policy dialogue, particularly through the WARM-P and Bank advisory services and analytics (ASA).
B3. Justification for Overall Efficacy
10 The intermediate indicator measuring the number of core staff trained for multi-sectoral water resources planning targeted 15 staff across the key water agencies but it was later determined that only 10 were required to help develop the three plans.
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41. Overall efficacy is rated “Substantial”, based on substantial achievement of the first PDO (Establish long-term sustainable arrangements for the O&M of large dams) and full achievement of the second PDO (Improve water resources planning), as reflected in progress on outcome and intermediate indicators.
C. EFFICIENCY Rating: Substantial
42. Following the methodologies adopted for the project appraisal in 2008, the ICR-stage ex-post economic analysis was conducted to re-assess the economic viability of the project investment. Given the fact that economic analyses were conducted at both the original project appraisal (Phase 1) and appraisal for the additional finance (Phase 2) in 2014, the ICR-stage economic analysis was conducted with four different scopes: (i) 32 dams for Phase 1; (ii) five portfolio dams for Phase 2; (iii) 30 dams for Phase 2; and (iv) the entire 63 dams of Phase 1 and 2. The primary benefits of the project are: (i) reduced risk of dam failure and (ii) reduced risk of floods caused by deficient dam operation. More detailed information including assumptions used for the analysis can be found in Annex 4.
43. The results of the ICR-stage economic analysis for the entire project (Phase 1+2) indicate a positive net present value (NPV) of US$ 23.9 million and an Economic Rate of Return (ERR) of 26.6 percent. The ERR for Phase 1 dams and Phase 2 dams were 30.6 percent and 16.8 percent, respectively. Phase 1 shows higher ERR than that at appraisal-stage (18.8 percent). This is presumably attributable to the project cost that did not exceed the estimated expenditure despite the high inflation rate during the project period (5.1 percent per year on average). However, it is hard to identify the source of difference since the cash flow chart used in the project appraisal is no longer available.
44. It should be noted that some of the benefits materialized by the project (e.g., reduced risk of deaths from floods, increase of agricultural productivity and contribution to the reconstruction of post-conflict area) were not included in the current analysis due mainly to the difficulty in valuation, which made the analysis more conservative. The efficiency of the Project is rated as “Substantial”, given the reasonably high economic viability. Some implementation delay and cost overruns were observed in Phase 1, but after the project extension in 2012 and the AF to scale up project activities in 2014, there were no further delays or cost overruns. The higher ERR in comparison to the ex-ante assessment suggests the rating as “High” instead of “Substantial”. However, the limited availability of data from the ex-ante analysis made the results of ex-ante and ex-post analyses less comparable, therefore there is too limited unambiguous evidence to justify a rating of “High”.
D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING
45. Based on the above assessment, with Relevance rated “High”, Efficacy rated “Substantial”, and Efficiency rated “Substantial”, the overall outcome rating of the project is “Satisfactory”.
E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS
E1. Institutional Strengthening
46. As discussed in the above sections, the project had a strong institutional strengthening element with the aim of building the capacity of the IAs in several specialized skills. Those included modem state-of-the-art dam engineering principles; risk assessment and dam portfolio management; engineering design and construction quality control; social
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and environmental management of dams and water resources management; dam safety codes of practices; dam operation and risk-based maintenance; safety monitoring and inspection; dam emergency preparedness planning; hydrological and meteorological data management; flood forecasting; and multi-sectoral water resources planning. To build capacity, a number of trainings were conducted both in-country and overseas (Annex 10). Moreover, implementation responsibility of all three main components were anchored within relevant government departments, which built strong ownership and created a favorable environment for sustaining project activities and investments. The tasks performed by international consultants during the original project were delegated to and satisfactorily carried out by the IAs during the AF phase. The improved implementation performance during the second half of the project implementation period testifies to the success of improved capacity and knowledge transfer.
47. Knowledge transfer through experience sharing, exposure visits, and on-the-job training proved extremely useful for field staff at the dam site who may not have been able to participate in national or regional training events. For example, the idea of building simple O&M structures to store tools and as a resting place for field workers spread from one scheme to another. Another example was the idea to cover the newly installed gate-lifting motors and supporting accessories with a simple roof structure to guard against exposure to the elements. During field visits, it was noted that such minor matters significantly contribute to the effectiveness and sustainability of the investments.
E2. Peace Consolidation
48. There were a few other key changes in the country context and operating environment that impacted the project scope and implementation. The first revolved around the formal end of the 26-year civil war in May 2009 between the Sri Lankan government and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. The conflict had particularly affected the northern and eastern parts of the country, which had largely been inaccessible to the government and its development partners. Hence under the original project, none of the 32 dams selected for rehabilitation were located in these areas. The peace accords called for a new era of peace, reconciliation and development, and the latter included reconstruction of both social and economic infrastructure. The DSWRPP was conceived as a good vehicle for spurring economic growth through dam rehabilitation that inter alia, had associated benefits for irrigation schemes and therefore to farmer livelihoods. Thus, for the AF, 10 of the 31 dams were selected from conflict-affected parts of the country. III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME
A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION
49. The project benefited from good project preparation which was guided by the objective of reducing disaster risk and improving water resources management. The objectives were clear, realistic, and achievable, and buttressed by a straight forward project design with clearly structured components and clear operational logic. The project was well designed and entailed a comprehensive technical review that followed internationally acceptable methodologies. However, detailed inspection of all dams could not be fully undertaken during preparation, resulting in an underestimation of projects costs by 27.8 percent, which necessitated AF to cover cost overruns. The identification of risks and mitigation measures were well-founded and adequate. Procurement risks were addressed through the recruitment of a strong procurement unit within the PMU (the procurement specialist eventually became the PMU director) and the preparation of a comprehensive procurement manual and training in line with Bank guidelines. The
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risk of communities not agreeing to civil works that could affect their livelihoods was mitigated by a well-designed and executed outreach campaign to ensure informed decision making as well as transparency in transactions.
50. There were some shortcomings in project design and preparation that affected implementation. First, the monitoring and evaluation (M&E) framework had some measurability issues (see Section IV). Secondly, there were limitations to what could be achieved under a conventional investment project design, e.g., the operationalization of a national dam safety entity, which could have been better supported by other approaches, including output / results- based financing, development policy financing, and technical assistance. Lastly, the long delays in hiring the three international support consultancies (ISCs), which were critical to implementation, could have been mitigated by ensuring the recruitment process was further along prior to project approval.
B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION
B1. Factors Subject to Government / PMU Control
(i) Implementation Delays
51. As noted above, there were significant delays during the first three years of the project in hiring the ISCs responsible for providing technical inputs to plan, design, and initiate the three components. The delays meant very little implementation could be done and were caused by a number of factors: (a) the complex nature of procurement and evaluation process; (b) the large number of proposals and the length of time needed to review; and (c) approval processes from various agencies, including the World Bank. According to Aide Memoires, the ISCs for Components 1 and 3 were on board by February 2010, while the ISC for Component 2 was recruited in August 2012, representing delays of 20 and 50 months, respectively, from the effectiveness date.
52. Contract management was challenging throughout implementation but particularly during the original project period. The ISCs took more time than expected to develop detailed designs of more complex dams. Delays continued during the construction phase. As shown in Annex 11, under the original project, 19 contracts were to be completed within 12 months, but they were instead completed in 28 months. Similarly, seven contracts were to be completed within 18 months but were instead completed in 33 months. While there were fewer and shorter delays during the AF period, any delay defers achievement of results; risks escalation of the price of materials, transport and labor; risks cash flow issues; and delays succeeding activities. Furthermore, contractors often cited adverse weather conditions as the justifications for contract extensions to avoid penalties. Another problem observed was the use of the mobilization advances (MA) for other purposes (settle previous loans, buy new vehicles, etc.). The project officers have the authority to advise the contractors on use of MA or to pay the MA in instalments. Many of these delays could have been averted by enhanced monitoring and contract management.
(ii) Implementation Roles and Responsibilities
53. A Cabinet decision in September 2007 affected the implementation of the AF in several ways. First, the AF was mandated to be completed within four years (whereas it was originally planned for five). Secondly, IAs were to limit international consultancies and to give preference to local consultants or implementing agencies. Third, the project was to be implemented in greater coordination with line ministries. The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Management
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subsequently advised that financial management (FM) and procurement administration would come under the purview of the ID, thus requiring these functions to be devolved to the ID to the extent possible with oversight provided by the PMU. Both ID and MASL followed the above decisions and acted accordingly, effectively taking over key responsibilities undertaken by the ISCs during the original project. By and large, these Cabinet and ministerial decisions did not adversely affect implementation of the AF. The capacity of the IAs had improved due to institutional strengthening activities and the close collaboration between IA and ISC staff. In addition, the independent six-member Dam Safety Review Panel continued to provide regular technical support (though not as often during the last two years).
54. The above decisions enhanced the role of IAs which had the effect of promoting ownership, sustainability, and institutional strengthening. However, they also effectively diminished the role of the PMU. While still responsible for overall project management (see Annex 1 for achievements against intermediate indicators related to project management), the PMU took on more of a coordinating role. It continued to take the lead in designing and executing training, M&E, and environmental and social safeguards. But its capacity to be a central, independent, and authorized entity to ensure inter-ministerial collaboration and agreement on more substantive matters, were constrained.
B2. Factors Subject to World Bank Control
55. The Bank provided adequate supervision of the project. During the 10-year implementation period, there were three task team leaders (TTLs) and the transition between them seems to have been smooth. The Aide Memoires indicate that teams proactively identified opportunities to scale up project activities for development impact, engaged in appropriate follow-up and resolution of bottlenecks, and appropriately adapted to changing conditions. The M&E design and utilization had some minor weaknesses. Moreover, the delays and lack of progress during the first few years of implementation were well documented but inadequately reflected in the project ISR ratings. IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME
A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) Rating: Substantial
A1. M&E Design
56. The M&E framework contained features that one would expect from a Bank-financed project in terms of clear roles and responsibilities, sources of data, and frequency of data collection and reporting. The reports would cover the key inputs, outputs, and processes of project management, as well as the expected outcomes necessary to show achievement of the PDO. While the outcome indicators encompassed all aspects of the PDO, they were some weaknesses. Most notably, the first indicator, “Large dams with unacceptable risk index”, would have benefited from a clear definition of “unacceptable risk index.” As discussed earlier, the risk index used a point system with the more points assigned, the higher the risk. The index, however, did not indicate a certain threshold for “unacceptable” nor does the project attempt to provide one. Remedial works were assumed to lower risks below unacceptable levels.
A2. M&E Implementation
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57. Generally speaking, M&E data was collected, analyzed, and reported in a methodologically sound manner. However, there seems to have been some confusion on the part of the PMU on the third outcome indicator, “Improved water database utilized by IAs for flood forecasting, dam operations, and water allocations.” The achievement constituted: establishment of new or upgraded hydrometric stations at dam sites; establishment of a databank at the IA and MASL; improved analytical capacity by IA and MASL staff; and establishment of procedures and provision of tools and training for real-time analysis. The PMU nonetheless reported on the number of dams with installed HMIS.
A3. M&E Utilization
58. The PMU prepared monthly, quarterly, and annual reports as planned. However, the reports mostly focused on contract details, inputs, activities, and outputs with very limited reflection and evaluation. The Bank Aide Memoires on the other hand, did utilize the M&E framework to inform implementation and decision making. The project would have benefited from a mid-term review, which was planned but never undertaken. The AF project paper also indicated that an interim ICR would be undertaken after the closing of the original credit, but this too was not done. However, by the close of the original credit, project implementation had been progressing well and a stocktaking of progress, lessons learned, and course corrections for the remainder of the project period were not seen as priorities.
A4. Justification of Overall Rating of Quality of M&E
59. Based on assessment of design, implementation, and utilization, the overall rating of quality of M&E is “Substantial”. Despite the shortcomings described above, the M&E framework was more than sufficient to assess the achievement of the project’s objectives. It should also be noted that the PMU continues to use the M&E framework as part of the preparation of the proposed WARM-P which would continue the dam modernization program and efforts to improve water resources management.
B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE
B1. Environmental Safeguards
60. The project was a Category B as it did not entail construction of new dams, alteration of primary design profiles of selected dams, or capacity augmentation of reservoirs. Environmental impacts were not significant or irreversible and overall, the project would result in positive environmental benefits, due to reduced risk from rehabilitated dam. Nonetheless, dam rehabilitation works resulted in removal of large quantities of topsoil, boulders and in the generation of concrete debris and other construction wastes. As such, two environmental safeguard policies were triggered: OP 4.01 on Environmental Assessment and OP 4.37 on Safety of Dams. The measures required to address the provisions of the policies included environmental analyses (EA), environmental management plans (EMP), the hiring of experts to design, supervise civil works and adhere to certain dam safety measures in the design, tendering, construction, O&M of the dam and associated works. The government appointed a DSRP to review and advise the IAs on matters related to dam safety and other critical aspects of the dam, its appurtenant structures, catchment areas, the area surrounding the reservoir and downstream areas. All other requirements were met. The project remained fully in compliance with safeguards policies; even with the departure of the PMU’s environmental officer during the last year, there were no lapses in safeguards implementation and monitoring. Bank ISRs consistently rated safeguards as “Satisfactory”.
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B2. Social Safeguards
61. The project triggered OP 4.11 on Cultural Property and OP 4.12 on Involuntary Resettlement. In both cases, the project remained in compliance with requirements and the project was consistently rated “Satisfactory”. The former required Department of Archaeology assistance in the implementation of an archeological impact assessment and an implementation action plan when dam structures deemed archeologically significant were found. The policy calls for that structure to be preserved, as was the case of an ancient sluice structure identified at the Urusitawewa site.
62. The policy on involuntary resettlement was triggered but the project did not entail any land acquisition or physical displacement of people. However, in the case of seven dams, water flows to the reservoir and to connected irrigation schemes were interrupted in order to conduct detailed technical investigations and rehabilitation works. These interruptions had adverse impacts on the livelihoods of farmers and others downstream dependent on dam reservoirs. A Livelihood Support Assistance (LSA) Plan was developed to deal with the hardships faced by affected people. The plan consisted of several types of activities for about 15,500 affected households. These included a wage assistance plan which provided wage employment for affected farmers, fishermen, and landless laborers; an alternative crop plan to assist farmers in growing drought resilient crops; a program to replenish inland fish stocks; a gender action plan; and a domestic water supply provisioning program. A grievance redress mechanism was established and monthly reports issued. An oversight committee was established to resolve the complaints with direct participation by stakeholders.
B3. Procurement
63. Procurement was identified as a substantial risk to the project with likely delays in procurement processing. Indeed, the project experienced significant delays as described in Section III. However, over time, capacity and proficiency in Bank procurement guidelines improved, as did overall contract management. A strong procurement unit was established in the PMU which produced a project specific, comprehensive procurement administration manual in line with Bank guidelines. The risk rating was eventually lowered to “Moderate” and then “Low”. The Bank team provided close monitoring and there were periodically updated procurement plans and procurement activity monitoring plans. In addition, considerable training (317 hours) was provided to PMU and IA staff on procurement and contract management and, indeed, over time, performance on both improved (see Annex 10). The senior procurement staff in the PMU eventually became the PMU Director for the project.
64. Generally speaking, there were no issues in regard to procurement compliance and the quality, reliability, and transparency of procurement administration has been satisfactory. The procurement process complied with Bank procurement rules and procedures. The IAs and PMU demonstrated sufficient capacity in carrying out procurement activities in a satisfactory manner, including procurement preparation, planning, bidding process, and contract management. Bank ISRs consistently rated procurement as “Satisfactory”.
B4. Financial Management
65. Financial management (FM) was identified as a moderate risk to the project and was consistently rated “Satisfactory” in Bank ISRs, reflecting adequate arrangements and capacity for planning and budgeting, funds flow, disbursement arrangements, internal controls, physical verification of assets, accounting, reporting, and auditing. There were no concerns regarding staffing or incidents of non-compliance. The fund transfer mechanism was
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effectively implemented through the Special Dollar Account and there were no cash flow issues. Financial reporting was carried out in a timely manner and while the PMU was asked on several occasions to ensure consistency between project records and Client Connection, the quality of reporting was acceptable. Audit reports were timely and were of good quality. FM arrangements also proved adequate in the execution of the LSAs, as described above.
C. BANK PERFORMANCE Rating: Satisfactory
C1. Quality at Entry
66. The project reflected the strategic priorities of both the Bank and the government and the development objective was highly relevant. Costs were underestimated by 27.8 percent but largely because of the difficulties in arriving at a precise cost without detailed technical inspection of all dams. The project was nonetheless well designed and entailed a comprehensive technical review that followed well-established, internationally acceptable methodologies. As noted above, the LSA helped to mitigate the adverse impacts of the dam rehabilitation works on farmers and others downstream dependent on dam reservoirs and was based on a well-designed and executed outreach campaign to ensure informed decision making as well as transparency in transactions. Procurement risks were addressed through a strong procurement unit within the PMU and the preparation of a comprehensive procurement manual in line with Bank guidelines. The implementation delays at the outset of the project were largely due to internal government procedures associated with the recruitment of three teams of international consultants. Implementation arrangements were appropriate and adequately addressed the risks of poor collaboration among different ministries and dam custodians. All other risks were similarly well founded and properly addressed. As discussed above, there were a few shortcomings in terms of the M&E framework and limitations to using a conventional investment project design to support and incentivize the type of institutional reform (establishment of the NCDS) and behaviors (preparation and updating of O&M manuals) that the project envisioned.
C2. Quality of Supervision
67. The task team undertook 20 formal implementation support missions, not including technical and other visits. Aide Memoires raised key implementation issues, generally proposed remedies, and were of good quality. Certain issues, such as establishing the NCDS and delays in preparing O&M manuals, were highlighted multiple times. There were some minor shortcomings in M&E that were not addressed during supervision. These issues, however, should not take away from the task team’s focus on development impact, strong implementation, and problem solving, particularly in the second half of the project implementation period. As noted previously, implementation began against the backdrop of an on-going conflict and fledgling implementation capacity relative to what was required for a comprehensive dam safety program with large civil works contracts. Accelerated implementation during the second half of the AF period allowed the project to finish strong. About 65 percent of total disbursements took place over the last three years, reflecting, in part, success in addressing bottlenecks and building local implementation capacity.
C3. Justification of Overall Rating of Bank Performance
68. Based on the quality of Bank performance at entry and at supervision, the overall rating for Bank performance is rated “Satisfactory”.
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D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 69. The risk to the project’s development outcomes is relatively moderate and is based on assessment of three aspects of sustainability: (i) technical sustainability; (ii) institutional sustainability; and (iii) financial sustainability. In terms of technical sustainability, and as discussed throughout the report, the project helped strengthen capacity and skills among IAs to maintain asset inventories, dam O&M, water resources planning and management, and the use and management of hydrometeorological stations and systems. With the remedial works, the expected life of the dams were extended by another 50 years. New monitoring instruments installed as part of the remedial measures and modernized HMIS allow for timely and effective detection of problems and risks in dam operation. However, technical sustainability requires skills transfers to be passed on through formal and informal learning. The NCDS, once operational, could help strengthen the culture of O&M and public safety to the next generation of engineers.
70. In terms of institutional sustainability, the project imparted a strong institutional strengthening element with the aim of building the capacity of the IAs in several specialized skills. Those include modem state-of-art dam engineering principles; risk assessment and dam portfolio management; engineering design and construction quality control; social and environmental management of dams and basin water resources management; dam safety codes of practices; dam operation and risk-based maintenance; safety monitoring and inspection; dam emergency preparedness planning; hydrological & meteorological data management; flood forecasting; groundwater monitoring and analysis; and multi- sectoral water resources planning, among others. The implementation arrangement that anchored the implementation responsibility of all three components with the concerned government departments have built a strong sense of ownership of the project and its outcomes, creating a favorable environment for sustainability. The IAs themselves should serve as the institutional, skill and information base for post-project water resources management, to be supported eventually by the NCDS. As discussed earlier, the Bank looks to consolidate and build upon the project’s institutional achievements, including the WARM-P and ASA that have helped underpin the team’s policy dialogue with government and development partners.
71. From the financial sustainability perspective, there is a higher awareness of the importance of O&M in ensuring not only operational efficiency but public safety. Dialogue between the government and the Bank and other development partners continue to look at options to optimize social, economic and environmental benefits of large dams as a means for income generation from providing ancillary public services (like mini-hydro systems, recreational parks, fisheries, eco-tourism, etc.) to supplement O&M funding. V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
72. The project has delivered many positive results in terms of ensuring sustainable arrangements for O&M of large dams and improved water resources planning. The following are some good lessons for future Bank assistance.
73. Instrument choice and project design. While the government demonstrated strong ownership and commitment throughout, the project fell short in establishing the NCDS, despite repeated assurances. The lack of progress on this important output reflects, in part, the challenges of supporting policy and institutional reforms through a conventional investment project design. As the Bank intends to continue to support Sri Lanka’s water sector, there are various
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instruments and approaches to support future reform efforts, starting with high level policy dialogue underpinned by ASA and complemented by technical assistance, as well as more results-based approaches to program financing.
74. Comprehensive water sector framework. Beyond instrument choice, broader reforms are needed to put in place a national policy, legal, and institutional framework for the integrated management of water resources. The slow progress with regard to the NCDS is symptomatic of the broader challenge of instituting a national, inter-ministerial framework, which can only be achieved through strong government ownership and a bottom-up approach to policy and institutional reforms. The major water sector agencies need to be willing to address water resources development and management needs, taking into account competing demands for water and associated social, economic, and environmental dimensions. To this end, the project’s water resources development plans and the cross-agency collaboration undertaken to identifying priority investments were a small but important step toward a more integrated water resources framework which the WARM-P looks to address more fully in the coming years.
75. Implementation arrangements. Many of the core responsibilities of implementation were transferred to the IAs during the AF period and the role of the PMU gradually became confined to coordination and monitoring. Though empowering line ministries is critical to promoting ownership, institutional development, and sustainability, a strong entity at the central level is important for addressing broader cross-ministerial and technical issues. The weakened role of the PMU in the last few years in particular contributed to the lack of progress on the national dam safety entity.
76. Building and sustaining capacity. The ability of the IAs to take the lead in implementing the project during the AF phase reflects the strong capacity developed during the initial phase of the project. While the ISCs took the lead on key aspects of implementation, there was very close collaboration with IA staff, resulting in knowledge transfer. Formal training was also emphasized throughout the project. This allowed sufficient capacity to be built to take over responsibilities of the ISCs once the AF was requested. This level of capacity will need to be sustained as senior engineers and dam operation staff retire or move on. Once fully operational, the NCDS is expected to help continue capacity strengthening and instill a culture of dam safety and O&M among younger engineers and dam operators.
77. Climate change adaptation. As discussed, the project’s objectives continue to be highly relevant to both the Bank and government, particularly in light of climate change and predicted climate variability. Sri Lanka is considered highly vulnerable to climate change, which is projected to, inter alia, result in more frequent and severe flooding. While dam safety is critical to government’s efforts at adaptation, so too are efforts to improve watershed management to reduce vulnerability and enhance adaptive capacity. Building on the project’s achievement, the WARM-P will continue the dam safety program, complemented by activities to restore and rehabilitate watersheds to promote sustainable land and water management practices, thereby reducing degradation, erosion, and improving flood control.
78. Project management. Given the 10-year duration of the project, there are a number of useful lessons learned from the Bank’s and government’s management of the project. The ICR highlights a few salient issues, including the need to ensure good contract management and the monitoring of contractor practices to reduce delays; the focus on capacity building through formal and informal knowledge and skills transfer; the importance of maintaining a strong implementing unit to not only competently execute core tasks but also to lead on broader strategic issues; and the need to ensure results indicators are well defined and measurable. .
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ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS
A. RESULTS INDICATORS
A.1 PDO Indicators
Objective/Outcome: PDO1: Establish long-term sustainable arrangements for O&M of large Dams Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion (Reduced) Number of Large Number 63.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Dams with Unacceptable Risk Index 01-Jul-2008 30-Jun-2013 15-May-2018 15-May-2018
Comments (achievements against targets): Additional financing project paper in 2014 proposed an increase in total dams to be rehabilitated to about 62. This was changed to 63 shortly afterward. The indicator was also modified and the word "reduced" was deleted. 100% target achieved.
Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Dams with need-based Number 0.00 32.00 63.00 63.00 operation and maintenance (O&M) plans operationalized. 01-Jul-2008 30-Jun-2013 15-May-2018 28-Sep-2018
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Comments (achievements against targets): 55% target achieved at project closing date. 100% target achieved by end-September 2018.
Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Direct project beneficiaries Number 0.00 0.00 1030000.00 1348000.00
01-Jul-2008 30-Jun-2013 15-May-2018 15-May-2018
Female beneficiaries Percentage 0.00 0.00 535000.00 754000.00
01-Jul-2008 30-Jun-2013 15-May-2018 15-May-2018
Comments (achievements against targets): 131% of the target achieved.
Objective/Outcome: PDO 2: Improve Water Resources Planning Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Improved water database Number 0.00 32.00 32.00 32.00 utilized by IAs for flood forecasting, dam operations, 01-Jul-2008 30-Jun-2013 15-May-2018 15-May-2018 and water allocations.
Comments (achievements against targets): 100% target achieved.
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Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion National Water Use Master Text No National Water Mundeni Aru Basin National Water Use Plan and at Least One River Use Plan and river plan completed Master Plan and at 2 Basin Development Plan basin plan exist. River Basin adopted by the Cabinet of Development Plans Ministers adopted by the Cabinet of Ministers.
01-Jul-2008 30-Jun-2013 15-May-2018 15-May-2018
Comments (achievements against targets): 100% achieved for two basin development plans and National Water Use plan adopted by cabinet.
A.2 Intermediate Results Indicators
Component: Component 1: Dam Safety and Operational Efficiency Improvements
Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Large dams rehabilitated Number 0.00 32.00 63.00 63.00 with necessary remedial measures. 01-Jul-2008 30-Jun-2013 15-May-2018 15-May-2018
Comments (achievements against targets): 100% target achieved.
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Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Dams provided with basic Number 0.00 80.00 80.00 80.00 safety facilities 01-Jul-2008 30-Jun-2013 15-May-2018 15-May-2018
Comments (achievements against targets): 100% target achieved.
Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Dam Safety Inspectorate Text Dam Safety Dam Safety Mixed Progres with essential guidelines and Inspectorate does not Inspectorate Fully procedures established and exist. operational operational 01-Jul-2008 30-Jun-2013 15-May-2018 15-May-2018
Comments (achievements against targets): The National Center for Dam Safety (NCDS) was formally established but is not yet fully operational.
Component: Component 2: Hydro-metrological information system
Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Hydrometric stations and Amount(USD) 0.00 50.00 142.00 167.00 agro-meteorological stations established/upgraded and 01-Jul-2008 30-Jun-2013 15-May-2018 15-May-2018
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functional
Comments (achievements against targets): 118% of the target achieved.
Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Hydrology and meteorology Text Databases do not Database fully Databases developed, databases developed and exist. operational and accessible, and in use accessible by different users accessible by different by IAs. users
01-Jul-2008 30-Jun-2013 15-May-2018 15-May-2018
Comments (achievements against targets): 100% target achieved.
Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Basic groundwater Number 0.00 0.00 8.00 8.00 monitoring system with sufficient number of 01-Jul-2008 30-Jun-2013 15-May-2018 15-May-2018 observation points established
Comments (achievements against targets): 100% target achieved. Eight pilot groundwater monitoring systems established.
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Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Staff trained for O&M of Number 0.00 50.00 142.00 167.00 HMIS 01-Jul-2008 30-Jun-2013 15-May-2018 15-May-2018
Comments (achievements against targets): 118% of the target achieved.
Component: Component 3: Multi-Sector Resources Planning
Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion A national water use master Text Plan does not exist. Plan finalized and Plan fully developed. plan developed adopted.
01-Jul-2008 30-Jun-2013 15-May-2018 15-May-2018
Comments (achievements against targets): 100% target achieved.
Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Mahaweli basin Text Plan exists but Updated Plan Plan fully updated. development plan updated outdated. completed and adapted.
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01-Jul-2008 30-Jun-2013 15-May-2018 15-May-2018
Comments (achievements against targets): 100% target achieved.
Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Water resources Text Plan does not exist. Basin Plan finalized. Plan fully developed. development plan for Mundeni Aru river basin 01-Jul-2008 30-Jun-2013 15-May-2018 15-May-2018 developed
Comments (achievements against targets): 100% target achieved.
Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Core team, in number of Number 0.00 12.00 15.00 10.00 staff, trained for multi- sectoral water resources 01-Jul-2008 30-Jun-2013 15-May-2018 15-May-2018 planning.
Comments (achievements against targets): 67% target achieved. Government realized that only 10 core staff were needed for multi-sectoral water resources planning.
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Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Feasibility studies prepared Number 0.00 0.00 6.00 8.00 for key interventions identified in the various Plans 01-Jul-2008 30-Jun-2013 15-May-2018 15-May-2018
Comments (achievements against targets): 133% target achieved.
Component: Component 4: Project Management, Monitoring and Evaluation
Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Timely completion/update of Text No N/A Yes annual work programs, progress reports, FMRs, 01-Jul-2008 30-Jun-2013 15-May-2018 15-May-2018 procurement plans
Comments (achievements against targets): 100% target achieved.
Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion
Cumulative physical and Text No N/A Yes disbursement performance targets do not fall below 80% 01-Jul-2008 30-Jun-2013 15-May-2018 15-May-2018
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of trhe cumulative targets after Year 1
Comments (achievements against targets): 100% target achieved after Year 3.
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B. KEY OUTPUTS BY COMPONENT
Objective/Outcome 1: Establish long-term sustainable arrangements for O&M of large Dams 1. Number of large dams with unacceptable risk index Outcome Indicators 2. Dams with need-based O&M plans operationalized 3. Direct project beneficiaries
1. Large dams rehabilitated with necessary remedial measures 2. Dams provided with basic safety facilities Intermediate Results Indicators 3. Dam Safety Inspectorate with essential guidelines and procedures established and operational Component 1. Dam Safety and Operational Efficiency 1. Large dams rehabilitated / modernized 2. O&M plans for rehabilitated / modernized dams operationalized 3. All large dams provided with basic safety facilities Key Outputs by Component 4. Emergency action plans prepared for 13 critical dams (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 1) 5. Central electronic database stores key data on dam 6. Dam Safety Inspectorate (National Center for Dam Safety) established 7. Flood control center established for Mahaweli River Basin 8. Staff trained on dam safety and O&M 9. Training center rehabilitated
Objective/Outcome 2: Improve water resources planning
1. Improved water database utilized by IAs for flood forecasting, dam operations, Outcome Indicators and water allocations
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2. National water use master plan and at least one river basin development plan adopted by the Cabinet of Ministers
1. Hydrometric stations and agro-meteorological stations established/upgraded and functional 2. Hydrology and meteorology databases developed and accessible by different users 3. Basic groundwater monitoring system with sufficient number of observation points established Intermediate Results Indicators 4. Staff trained for O&M of HMIS 5. National water use master plan developed 6. Mahaweli Basin development plan updated 7. Water resources development plan for Mundeni Aru river basin developed 8. Core team, in number of staff, trained for multi-sectoral water resources planning 9. Feasibility studies prepared for key interventions identified in the various Plans
Component 2. Hydro-Meteorological Information System 1. Hydrometric stations and agro-meteorological stations established/upgraded 2. Data centers housing hydrology and meteorology databases established 3. Groundwater monitoring pilot conducted 4. Staff trained on HMIS O&M and data analyses, groundwater monitoring Key Outputs by Component
(linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 2) Component 3. Multi-sector Water Resources Planning 1. National water use master plan developed 2. Mahaweli Basin development plan updated 3. Mundeni Aru River Basin development plan developed 4. Staff trained on multi-sectoral water resources planning
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5. Feasibility studies prepared for key interventions identified in the various plans
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ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION
A. TASK TEAM MEMBERS Name Role Preparation Nihal Fernando Task Team Leader, Xiaokai Li Co-Task Team Leader, Water Resources Ohn Myint Dam Engineering and Costing (Consultant) Seeniathamby Manaoharan Implementation Arrangements and Coordination Suryanarayan Satish Social Development Specialist Walter A Garvey Water Resources River Basin Planning (Consultant) Nagaraja Harshadeep Rao Hydrological Models and DSS Tools Sumith Pilapitiya Environmental Safeguards
Supervision/ICR Shyam KC Task Team Leader(s) Asif Ali, G. W. Anjali U. Perera Vitharanage, Sunethra Procurement Specialist(s) Chandrika Samarakoon Bernadeen Enoka Wijegunawardene Financial Management Specialist Zakia B. Chummun Team Member Joop Stoutjesdijk Team Member Cecilia Belita Team Member Anju Gaur Team Member John Factora Team Member Samanmalee Kumari Sirimanne Team Member Seenithamby Manoharan Team Member Rolande Simone Pryce Team Member Susrutha Pradeep Goonesekera Social Safeguards Specialist Prabha Kumari Perera Team Member
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Jun Matsumoto Team Member Suranga Sooriya Kumara Kahandawa Team Member Mokshana Nerandika Wijeyeratne Environmental Safeguards Specialist
B. STAFF TIME AND COST
Staff Time and Cost Stage of Project Cycle No. of staff weeks US$ (including travel and consultant costs) Preparation FY05 10.660 48,160.56 FY06 13.851 43,563.41 FY07 46.445 324,996.93 FY08 15.985 80,877.88
Total 86.94 497,598.78
Supervision/ICR FY08 4.750 20,884.72 FY09 21.490 80,724.27 FY10 13.025 60,204.14 FY11 19.655 78,320.34 FY12 19.363 113,071.13 FY13 13.975 73,765.33 FY14 19.039 152,223.65 FY15 15.632 66,793.81 FY16 21.275 121,687.83 FY17 23.927 187,270.47 FY18 23.817 189,867.85
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FY19 5.582 39,037.63 Total 201.53 1,183,851.17
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ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT
Amount at Approval Actual at Project Percentage of Components (US$M) Closing (US$M) Approval (%) 1. Dam Safety and Operational Efficiency 125.0 115.9 92.7 Improvement 2. Hydrometerological Information Systems 11.4 14.4 126.4 Improvement 3. Multi-Sectoral Water 10.5 7.5 71.7 Resources Planning 4. Project Management, 7.8 4.9 63.3 Monitoring and Evaluation Total 154.7 142.8 92.3
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ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS
Background
1. Although Sri Lanka’s economy is shifting towards industry and services, agriculture still plays a key role (7.5 percent of GDP and 27.1 percent of employed population) especially in rural economy. However, aging reservoirs are threatening the life of local residents and infrastructures, as has been witnessed in the accident in 1986 where the Kantale tank in Trincomalee District breached, killing over 100 people, destroying 1,600 houses and 800 ha of paddy and affecting over 8,000 families.
2. This project was implemented to reduce the probabilities of dam failure and ‘artificial flood’ caused by lack of hydro-met information in the upstream and dam mismanagement through: i) remedial works of dam facilities; and ii) establishment and upgrading of hydro-meteorological stations. The primary beneficiary of the project is both urban and rural population of over 0.5 million in the downstream area of target dams, who could be placed at physical risk in the case of dam failure.
Methodology
3. To keep consistency with the past appraisals of the project, the project benefit was defined as the difference of expected value of flood and dam failure damage with project and without project scenario. The expected damage value for each scenario was calculated as product of dam failure (or flood) probability and damage caused by dam failure (or flood).
4. Economic analysis for this project has been conducted twice to date, i.e. original appraisal in 2008 and appraisal for additional finance (AF) in 2014. As is summarized in Table A4.1, each appraisal covers different dams and different methodologies. In order to analyze the project viability from different angles but in a consistent manner, the ICR-stage economic analysis was conducted with four different scopes, i.e. i) 32 dams for Phase 1, ii) 5 portfolio dams for Phase 2, iii) 31 dams for Phase 2, and iv) entire 63 dams of Phase 1 and 2. For benefits, both dam failure and flood was considered as source of reduced damage.
Table A4.1: Scope of past economic analyses
Original Additional Finance appraisal (2014) appraisal (2008) Dams Phase 1 Entire 32 dams Entire 32 dams covered Phase 2 N/A 5 sample dams
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Benefits covered Reduced Fixed benefit11 Reduced damage by dam damage of dam failure and flood failure
5. The key assumptions used in the ICR-phase economic analysis are as follows:
i ) The period covered by the analysis is in accordance with the estimated project life of 25 years, which spans over 2008 to 2032. ii ) The exchange rate of Sri Lanka Rupee (Rs) to US Dollar (USD) in 2008 to 2018 is based on the rate by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka. iii ) The cost of annual O&M is assumed to be 0.3 percent of the total capital investment for respective dams. iv ) The economic discount rate is 12 percent. v ) All the capital investment amount during the project (nominal or current prices) are converted to the real (or constant) prices as of 2008 using the inflation rate by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka. (The average inflation rate in 2008 to 2018 is 5.1 percent per year.) vi ) Standard Conversion Factor (SCF) is not applied to convert domestic financial prices to economic prices for couple of reasons12. vii ) The unit prices used for project benefit (avoided flood damage) estimation is based on Jacobs Gibb study (2004)13. All the unit prices are converted to the prices in 2008 using the inflation rate by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka. Current beneficiary population is estimated using the rate of national population growth by the Department of the Census and Statistics of Sri Lanka. (cf. Table A4.2 and A4.3) viii ) Probability of failure of each dam increases by 4 percent per year irrespective of dam rehabilitation works. (e.g. If the failure probability of a dam is 0.1 percent in a certain year, it increases to 0.104 percent in the next year.)
11 Rs 1.25 million per year was allotted as the fixed benefit from the project after the completion.
12 i) the cost breakdown of domestic/import materials and labor for respective 63 dams was not available; ii) according to the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, the SCF in 2014 is 0.97, which translates to quite small impact by the use of SCF; and iii) past appraisals of the project did not use SCF either.
13 Jacobs Gibb (2004) Activity 18: Protfolio Safety / Conservation Review, Risk & Economic Assessment, Dam Safety & Reservoir Conservation Program, Mahaweli Authority of Sri Lanka.
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Table A4.2: Unit prices for damage estimation
No. Items (unit) Original value in Adjusted value Jacob Gibbs (2004) in 2008 prices 1 Damage to houses14 (Rs. per unit) 200,000 309,931 2 Damage to public buildings 50% of housing damage 3 Damage to major roads (Rs. per km) 1,750,000 2,711,895 4 Damage to local roads (Rs. per km) 1,000,000 1,549,654 5 Damage to railways (Rs. per km) 10,000,000 15,496,541 6 Damage to agriculture (Rs. per ha) 100,000 154,965 Loss of economic production (Rs. per 325,000 503,638 7 capita) Loss of hydropower generation 10 15 8 (Rs. per kWh) 9 Intangible cost 20% of tangible cost15 50,000,000,000*(h/100) ^3 77,482,706,400*(h/100) ^3 10 Dam replacement cost (Rs.) h: dam height (m) h: dam height (m)
6. Table A4.3 presents the key figures describing overall extent of target dams and beneficiaries.
Table A4.3: Key figures related to target dams and beneficiaries
Items Value Population at risk 547,208 Houses (20% of population) 103,580 Paddy area (ha) 248,672 Hydropower capacity (MW) 924 Major road length (km) 117 Local road length (km) 524 Railway length (km) 51
Costs
7. The actual and estimated cost build-up of the project is shown in Table A4.4. The project had encountered some delay at the initial stage but gained acceleration in the second half of the entire project period. For cost calculations, government contributions to the project have been included in addition to the loan from the World
14 It is assumed one house is resided by 5 persons. Therefore, the number of houses is one-fifth of population.
15 Tangible cost is defined as the sum of item 1 to 8 in Table A4.2.
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Bank. The O&M cost of 0.29 million per year (0.3 percent of total capital expenditure for dam remedial works) was also allocated for each year after the close of project period.
Table A4.4: Estimated and actual disbursement schedule
Unit: million Rs. Year Planned Actual 2008 2.4 0.0 2009 10.1 0.4 2010 20.3 8.3 2011 20.5 5.5 2012 10.3 8.3 2013 1.8 19.3 2014 10.0 13.2 2015 15.0 17.3 2016 28.0 16.2 2017 25.0 24.9 2018 5.0 25.1 Total 148.3 138.5
Benefits
8. The primary benefits gained through the project includes: i) reduced risk of dam failure, and ii) reduced risk of floods caused by inappropriate dam operation due to lack of hydro-meteorological information in the upstream catchment area. These benefits are calculated as the product of reduced probability of disaster occurrence (dam failure or flood) and expected damage and loss caused by respective disasters. Through the review of past documents, it was noted that the additional finance appraisal in 2014 counted only reduced risk of dam failure as project benefit, while the original appraisal counted both dam failure and flood. It was also found that the additional finance appraisal overvalued the probability of dam failure cited from Jacobs Gibb study (2004) by 10 times. If correct values of failure probability are applied, both ERR and NPV will turn to negative values (-4.49 percent and -713 million USD, respectively). Given these discrepancy in the benefit calculation methodology in the past appraisal, this report follows the benefit counting of original appraisal which considers both dam failure and flood as source of benefit.
9. Ideally, estimated flood damage is to be calculated through numerical flood simulation models for each flood cases with different return-period. These models require extensive input data such as historical rainfall/river flow monitoring record, grid-wise topography, longitudinal/cross-sectional river profile and so on. Due to the constraints of time and financial resources, under current analysis, expected values of flood damage was estimated by simple linear regression model developed through the flood simulation results conducted at the original appraisal in 2008. Population at risk, which showed highest correlation with flood damage value,
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was selected as explanatory variable to estimate the damage amount caused by floods with different return- period.
10. Following past appraisals, the unit cost for respective damage and loss factors were cited from Jacobs Gibb (2004), which are summarized in Table A4.2. For Phase 1 dams, the benefit of three dams, i.e. Victoria, Randenigala and Kotmale, that accounts for 28 percent of total cost for the phase are calculated respectively and those of other 29 dams are calculated in aggregated manner. For Phase 2 dams, benefit of all 31 dams are calculated in aggregated manner, since the probability of failure are not available for some of the target dams. It should also be noted that some of the benefit factors are not included in the current analysis due to the difficulty of quantification. These include: i) reduction of human life mortality and injuries caused by dam failure or floods; and ii) improvement of agricultural productivity downstream of the dam, which was reported by farmers but direct assessment was not feasible due to data constraints.
Results of the economic analysis
11. The results of economic analysis are summarized in Table A4.5. In all cases, the updated ERR showed higher value than past appraisals. This increase is attributed mainly to the decrease in the capital investment value in real (constant) prices as of 2008. While the nominal (current) total capital investment amount was almost equivalent to those envisaged in the appraisal, it is reduced by more than 20 percent when converted to real prices of 2008 by applying the inflation rates of respective years, which are as high as 5 percent on average16. In other words, we can say that the project was implemented quite efficiently despite the high inflation rate during the project period. On the other hand, the NPVs did not show as much increase as ERRs. Since the cash flow data for the economic analysis of past appraisals are no longer available, it is hard to identify the cause behind this inconsistency, but these results imply less nominal benefit values in the CRR than past appraisals.
12. Phase 1: While same tendency (higher ERR) as the overall results are observed with Phase 1, it should be also noted that the benefit from the three portfolio dams, i.e. Victoria, Randenigala and Kotmale, accounted for more than 50 percent of the total benefit generated through the phase. The annual project benefit was between Rs. 1.24 to 1.31 billion.
13. Phase 2: The results of ICR- and additional finance -stage economic analyses are not comparable, since the methodology adopted for benefit counting differs significantly. However, what is to be noted is, when compared with the results of Phase 1, the entire 31 dams of Phase 2 show lower ERR (16.8 percent), while the ERR of 5 portfolio dams is as high as 30.6 percent. This implies that the dams selected for Phase 2 are less efficient in terms of economic return. However, the ERR is still higher than 12 percent, which means the investment itself
16 In principle, project economic analysis is conducted in real (constant) prices, which are nominal (current) prices adjusted with the inflation rate. This is based on the assumption that inflation affects the prices of both inputs and outputs equally. By using real prices, the analysis can avoid the impact of unpredictable inflation (or deflation) in the future. (cf. ADB (2017) Guidelines for the Economic Analysis of Projects)
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can yet be economically viable. The fact that is not reflected in the analysis is that many of the dams of Phase 2 are located in the northeastern part of the country which was devastated by the civil war, therefore, the project has also achieved indirect positive impacts on the reconstruction of post-conflict area.
14. Entire project: The ERR and NPV of entire 63 dams were 26.6 percent and Rs. 2.6 billion respectively. The viability of entire project is thus confirmed as envisaged at the original and additional finance appraisal.
Table A4.5 Summary result of economic analysis
ERR NPV (Rs. million) Phase 1 Original appraisal 18.8% 2,371 (32 dams) AF appraisal 15.0% 670 ICR 28.9% 2,368 Phase 2 AF appraisal17 17.9% 320 (Portfolio of (-4.5%) (-712) 5 dams) ICR 30.6% 249 Phase 2 AF appraisal N/A N/A (31 dams) ICR 16.8% 224 Phase 1 + 2 ICR 26.6% 2,592 (63 dams)
Sensitivity analysis
15. Sensitivity analysis of economic viability of the project was conducted for Phase 1, Phase 2 and the entire project (Phase 1 + 2) respectively. Although the ERR of Phase 2 in the scenario of benefit decrease showed the values slightly below 12 percent threshold, the ERR of entire project still shows robust economic viability with any scenarios. Increase in the O&M cost, which is very likely in growing economies like Sri Lanka, has negligible impact on the economic viability, while the decrease of benefit has relatively large impact.
17 Values in parenthesis are those when correct probability of dam failure is applied for economic analysis. As described at, AF appraisal overvalued the probability of dam failure by ten times, while excluding the benefit of flood damage mitigation.
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The World Bank LK Dam Safety and Water Resources Planning (DSWRPP) ( P093132 )
Table A4.6 Summary results of the sensitivity analysis
ERR NPV (Rs. Million) Ph.1 Ph.2 Ph.1+2 Ph.1 Ph.2 Ph.1+2 Base case 28.9% 16.8% 26.6% 2,368 224 2,592 O&M cost at 150% of the 28.9% 16.7% 26.5% 2,355 216 2,571 base case Benefit at 80% of the base 22.2% 11.7% 20.0% 1,431 -13 1,418 case O&M cost at 150% & benefit at 80% of the base 22.2% 11.5% 19.9% 1,418 -21 1,397 case
Conclusions and recommendations
16. Recalculation of ERR and NPV at ICR stage confirmed the economic viability of Phase 1, Phase 2 and the entire project, thus justifying the investment over the last decade. It is to be noted that some of the benefits materialized from the project, such as reduction of death casualties from floods, increase of agricultural productivity and contribution to the reconstruction of post-conflict area were not included in the current analysis due mainly to the difficulty in quantification.
17. There are essentially two lessons learned in terms of economic analysis obtained through ICR preparations. Firstly, the data used for appraisal-stage economic analysis should be handed over until the project closure or even after that. Ideally, ICR-stage economic analysis should adopt consistent methodology as the appraisal- stage, but this was not the case with the current analysis since the calculation spreadsheet was lost over the decade-long project implementation period and little clues for recalculation was left on the appraisal document. Therefore, this ICR had to conduct economic analysis almost from scratch, resulting in incomparability of key parameters, i.e. ERR and NPV, between different project stages.
18. Secondly, key parameters for economic analysis should be included in the results framework of the project. In the case of current project, some of the statistical parameters such as affected population and irrigation command area, are subject to change over project period, and this may have significant impact to the project benefit. However, such time-dependent change was not captured in the current analysis due to the lack of latest data. The quality of economic analysis can be improved if at least key parameters are included in the M&E framework.
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The World Bank LK Dam Safety and Water Resources Planning (DSWRPP) ( P093132 )
ANNEX 5. BORROWER COMMENTS
The External Resources Department (ERD) of the Government of Sri Lanka circulated the ICR report among the different stakeholders and the comments below were received by the Ministry of Mahaweli Development and Environment (MMDE). The Bank concurs with these comments which are reflected in the ICR. A second letter from MMDE was received on November 30, 2018 reiterating the Ministry’s concurrence with the ICR findings.
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The World Bank LK Dam Safety and Water Resources Planning (DSWRPP) ( P093132 )
ANNEX 6. THEORY OF CHANGE
Project Development Longer Term Activities Project Outputs Objectives / Outcomes Outcomes
• Remedial works for high-risk dams 1. 63 large dams rehabilitated with • Provision of basic safety necessary remedial measures
facilities for large dams 2. 80 large dams provided with • Training for strengthening basic safety facilities
dam-owning organizations 3. Dam Safety Inspectorate with PDO 1. Establish long-term • Studies and supply of essential guidelines and sustainable arrangements for specialized equipment procedures established and O&M of large dams
Component 1 • Livelihood Assistance Plan operational
for affected communities 1. Reduced number of large dams with unacceptable risk Effective management 1. Hydrometric stations and agro- index • Establishment and upgrading and development of meteorological stations of hydrometric stations water resources and established / upgraded and 2. Need-based O&M plans • Establishment of a databases hydraulic assets help functional operationalized in select at ID & MASL prevent or mitigate 2. Hydrology and meteorology dams • Flood protection procedures, natural disasters and onent 2 databases developed & contribute to p tools and training for accessible by different users analysis of flood inflows to productive sectors and
Com 3. Staff trained for O&M of HMIS major reservoirs communities, 4. Basic groundwater monitoring PDO 2. Improve water • Establishment of a economic growth, and system with sufficient number resources management poverty reduction. groundwater monitoring of observation points system established 3. Improved water database utilized by implementing 1. A national water use master agencies for flood • Preparation of a National plan developed forecasting, dam operations Water Use Plan 2. Mahaweli Basin Development and water allocations • Updating the Mahaweli Plan updated Water Resources 3. Water resources development 4. National water use master Development Plan plan for Mundeni Aru river basin plan and at least one river
onent 3 • Preparation of a Water developed basin development plan Resources Development Plan adopted by the cabinet 4. A core team trained for
Comp for Mundeni Aru River Basin integrated multi-sectoral water • Train core staff on integrated resources planning water resources planning 5. Feasibility studies prepared for • Prepare feasibility studies of key interventions identified in priority developments the various plans (AF)
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The World Bank LK Dam Safety and Water Resources Planning (DSWRPP) ( P093132 )
ANNEX 7. TYPICAL OPERATIONAL DEFICIENCIES OF DAMS AND REMEDIAL MEASURES
No. Problems existed Remedial measures attended 1 Bund-related activities Raised the bund, renovated slopes as per designed specifications, Inadequate free-board, steep 1.1 and strengthened the weak sections by providing berms - filling and upstream and downstream slopes, compacting of selected earth and planted strip turf to new earth weak sections of the bund fill. Constructed loading berms, removed and re-filled some sections Slope sloughing, slips, settlements, 1.2 with necessary compaction; cracks along the dam crest, Removed dead trees, anthills and filled with suitable material and settlement of abutments, and erosion compacted. Provided toe-filters, drains, loading berms, fixed Piezometers to Seepage boils and leakages in the 1.3 assess the pore-water pressure & weirs to measure seepage flow; downstream of the dam Cleared the toe road for easy inspections Removed the disturbed rip-rap, earth-filled and compacted the Collapsed rip-rap and eroded 1.4 upstream slope, placed Geotextile along the U/S slope and upstream slopes due to wave actions replaced/ repaired the riprap up to a maximum 600 mm depth. In concrete dams, malfunctioning of Replaced most of the equipment; checked the pre-tension cables 1.5 equipment, weak conditions in pre- and replaced the weak cables. tension cables and accessories 2 Remedial measures in sluices/ outlets and spills 2.1 Damaged/mal-functioning of gates, Repaired and improved the concrete structures, sluice barrels, hoisting mechanisms, electro- replaced or repaired the damaged gates, and painted them. mechanical work in sluices & spills Attended to all electro mechanical works. 2.2 Damaged spills, the inadequacy of Fabricated and installed new radial gates for selected spills, fixed discharge in an emergency situation, hoisting arrangements, improved stilling basins, and other civil and damaged stilling basin and other electro-mechanical work. 3 Access 3.1 The public roads on the bunds were Repaired and improved all bund roads (metalling and tarring); highly damaged Improved the access roads. 3.2 Damaged bathing places and other Renovated or constructed new bathing places, constructed small related activities bridges and culverts. 3.3 Encroachments into reservations in Surveyed and fixed permanent concrete posts along the bund some schemes channels or water holding area in some selected schemes.
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The World Bank LK Dam Safety and Water Resources Planning (DSWRPP) ( P093132 )
ANNEX 8. DETAILS OF DAM SAFETY REHABILITATION
Phase 1 Dams Tank Total Risk Index Name of the Remedial measures Remedial measures No Charac- Remedial measures in Bund Other relevant activities cost dam / Agency in Sluices in Spills Reduction teristics Rs M Installation of Safety and Monitoring Repairs the spill way Construction of access L- 1646 m Nachchaduwa Facilities (SMF), improvements to Improvements to RB wall, spill way gates, roads, Construction of H- 11m 1 (ID) dam including replacement of Rip high level sluice and reinstall gantry bathing places, 138.5 85% C-55.7 mcm T- HE Rap, construction of toe filter and toe RB low level sluice crane, electrification Improvements to foot
drain for operations bridge, L- 9236 m Installation SMF, improvements of Kaudulla (ID) Improvements to LB Improvements to Construction of bathing 2 H- 15m tank bund and replacing Rip Rap, 328.8 72% T-HE and RB sluices spill way places C-64 mcm construction of toe drain L- 2332 m Improvements of access Minneriya Installation of SMF, improvements to Improvements of Improvements of 3 H- 21m road, construction of 168.3 73% (ID) T-HE the dam, Construction of toe drain sluices main spill way C-136 mcm bathing steps, L- 5000 m Ridiyagama Installation of SMF, improvements to Repairs to LB sluice H- 8.5 m Improvements to Construction of bathing 4 (ID) dam, replacement of Rip Rap, including electro- 239.6 89% C-27 mcm spill ways 1 and 2 steps and other T-HE construction of toe filter & toe drain mechanical works
L- 123 m Nalanda (ID) Installation of SMF, Improvements of Improvements to Reinstallation of spill 5 H- 31m 309.7 91% T-CG concrete dam including d/sside work outlets control valves way, C-15 mcm L- 6500 m Installation of SMF, improvements of Improvement to Improvements to RB Construction of access Nuwarawewa 6 H- 11m dam, construction of toe drain, Right and Left bank spill way including road, bathing place and 428.95 77% (ID) T- HE C-44 mcm improvement of Rip rap, sluices foot bridge over it. inspection steps Improvt. of access road, L- 2300 m Electro mechanical Improvements to Installation of SMF, Improvements to construction of bathing Kantale (ID) H- 18 m work, repairs in spill way, Electro 7 the dam, Construction of toe drain and inspection steps 118.8 72% T- HE C-135 mcm sluices and mechanical work, and Rip rap improvement, Connecting tank bund electrification radial gates to spill with Vendarasn
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The World Bank LK Dam Safety and Water Resources Planning (DSWRPP) ( P093132 )
L- 550 m Improvements to dam, construction Repairs t LB and RB Construction of access Giritale (ID) H- 23m of toe drain, Replacing and extension sluices and electro 8 road, bathing and 131.19 81% T- HE C-24 mcm of Rip rap, work related to the saddle mech.l work in RB inspection steps dam, sluice Improvements to LB L- 1143 m Installation of monitoring and safety and RB sluices, Vandarasan H- 16 m facilities, construction of toe drain Improvement to spill Construction of bathing 9 electro-mechanical 153.22 89% (ID)T- HE C-245mcm and toe filter, Improvements of dam, way and inspection steps, work in sluices Rip rap replacement.
Construction of LB Construction of access L- 1910 m sluice and outlet roads, bathing & Tabbowa (ID) H- 9 m Installation of SMF, Improvements to tankstructure, bund, Rip Improvements to 10 inspection steps, 220.55 88% T- HE C- 19mcm rap & Construction of toe drain, improvement to spill way gates Improvements to foot center sluice, & RB bridge, sluice Usgala L- 1433 m Installation of SMF, Bund raising, Improve LB & RB Siyambal H- 4 m Refurbishment of preliminaries, bathing 11 slope stabilization& seepage control, sluices & electro 157.26 84% angamuwa C-27mcm spill ways No.2 and 3 steps etc. access roads toe dam, replacement of Rip rap, improvement work (ID) T- HE Repairs to center and L- 3480 m Construction of access Tissawewa Installation of SMF, improvements to RB sluice, seepage H- 11 m Repairs to concrete road, construction of 12 (ID) bund, construction of toe drain, control of LB sluice, 150.68 75% C-4.3 mcm in LB spill way bathing and inspection T-HE Replacement of Rip Rap, mechanical work in steps LB and RB sluices Repairs of spillway, L- 2377 m Repairs to LB, RB and Huruluwewa Installation of SMF, Improvements to Improvements to Construction of access H- 25 m Center sluices, 13 (ID) dam, construction of toe drain and natural spill way, roads, Construction of 150.2 86% C-67 mcm electro mechanical T-HE toe filter, improvement to Rip rap electro mechanical bathing, inspection steps, work in sluices work Repairs to cubicle L- 4115 m Installation of inspection and Inginimitiya Repairs to sluices and room at spill way, H- 24 m monitoring facilities, improvement to Additional funds for tank 14 (ID) electro mechanical electro mechanical 146.7 75% C-72 mcm tank bund including to U/s slope, bund road. T-HE work. work, Repairs to Construction of toe drain, radial gates
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The World Bank LK Dam Safety and Water Resources Planning (DSWRPP) ( P093132 )
Repairs of spill way, L- 12300 m Installation of SMF, Improvement to Repairs to sluice Construction of access Parakrama electro mechanical H- 15 m tank bund, construction of loading tower, repair and road, construction of 15 Samudra (ID) work, radial gates to 181 73% C-134 mcm berm and toe drain, improvement to electro mechanical bathing and inspection T-HE main spill way, and Rip Rap, work in sluices steps and bathing steps, electrification L- 4043 m Spill way repair, Installation of safety and monitoring Repairs to LB and RB Rajangana H- 18.3 m Replacement of 15 facilities, Improvements to tank sluices, Electrification Construction of access 16 (ID) C-100.6 Nos radial gates 270.8 69% bund, rip rap establishment, and automation of roads, bathing steps, T- HE mcm (27.02 m), stage Ii, Construction of toe drain, radial gates ( Radial gates
Total 3,294 80% Average cost per scheme = Rs 206 million
Name of Risk Index Tank Charac Remedial measures in Remedial measures Total cost No the dam / Remedial measures in Bund Other -terictics Sluices in Spills Rs M Agency Reduction Improvements to L- 2500 m Installation of SAF, improvements of Repairs to sluices, Construction of access Chandrikawe spill way, 17 a (MASL) H- 19 m the dam, construction of toe drain mesh fencing of sluice roads, construction of 281.3 91% construction of T- HE C-27 mcm and berms, Rip rap gates, bathing steps, gabion wall Installation of SAF, improvements to L- 420 m Repairs to spill way Rantambe the dam, construction of toe drain Bottom outlets and 18 (MASL) H- 41.5 m gates, cranes, Providing lightening 133.31 90% and berms, Rip rap replacement control gate repair, T-CG C-11.5 mcm mechanical works
Establishment of Reservoir control L- 143 m Polgolla center (new building establishment 19 (MASL) H- 15 m 296.47 77% and old building repaird) T- CG C-4.1 mcm
Installation of SMF, D/s and U/S face Rip rap around U/s of L- 975 m construction of D/s Kandalama remedial work, Renovation of LB sluice, repairing of construction of inception 20 (MASL H- 20 m gabion wall for spill 39.25 79% existing toe drain, construction of sluice barrel and steps on D/S face, T- HE) C-33 mcm way(LHS) loading berms, inverted filter tower
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The World Bank LK Dam Safety and Water Resources Planning (DSWRPP) ( P093132 )
installation of L- 520 m Installation of SMF, SCADA system Improvements to Victoria Repairs to low level transformer, supply of 21 (MASL) H- 122 m Construction of dam distribution sub- spill way, repairs to 1,405.60 87% outlet, O&M manuals, safety T- CA C-722 mcm station, gantry crane equipment and training Repair to sluice gate Construction of access Maduru Oya L- 1008 m Installation of SMF, Improvements to towers, power supply road, lightening RB, dam 22 (MASL) H- 43 m toe dam including restoration of and distribution , Lightening spill crest, preparation of 152.98 82% T- RF C-722 mcm slopes installation of flow O&M manuals and measuring inst. training L- 495 m Randenigala Repairs to granty Repairs to spill way Preparation of O&M 23 (MASL) H- 94 m Installation of SMF 123.6 74% cranes gates, top logs manual and training, T- RF C-460 mcm Installation of SMF, modification of L- 600 m Repairs and Spill way repair, Kotmale control room, power supply to dam, 24 (MASL) H- 87 m installation of electric gantry crane repair, 143.04 74% Preparing O&M manuals and T-RF C-175mcm facilities to outlet spill way gate control provision of training Spill way repair, L- 6500 m Repairs to sluices, gantry crane repair, Construction of bathing Kalawewa H- 14.8 m Installation of SMF, Improvements to made of cement and 25 (MASL) power supply to the steps 160.9 69% C-123.3 the dam, masonry stones, T- HE crane, spill way gate mcm repairs to sluices control Improvements to maintenance and safety Improvements to bottom outlet, main equipment, L- 327 m spill, Rb and LB spill Installation of SMF, Improvements outlet shelter, electrification of control Bowatenna H- 30 m way repair, spill way 26 (MASL) dam, data acquisition and monitoring Irrigation tunnel boards, lightening 67.12 83% C-56 mcm radial gates, Repair T- CG system, shelter, import. to RB protection system, to RB and LB outlets and LB outlets, elec building electrical (Low level), , work, services Dam crest remedial work, D/s Construction of L- 1680 m inspection path, and surface Repairing of RBsluice Repairing spill way, inspection steps, Dambulu H- 12 m 27 Ova (MASL) drainage, U/s face remedial work, barrel,tower, Repairs mechanical work in Renovation of building 105.61 67% C-11.7 mcm T- HE rearrange the rip, rap, Renovation of to LB sluice, spill way Renovation of access
measuring well, roads,
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The World Bank LK Dam Safety and Water Resources Planning (DSWRPP) ( P093132 )
L- 137 m Improvements of Improvements to Laxapana H- 29.6 m Installation of SMF, Improvements to Supply of electrical 28 (CEB) outlet including spill way including 116.6 88% C-597 mcm dam, equipment T -CG electro mech. work electro mech work
L- 181 m Improvts to spill way, Improvements to Canyon (CEB) H- 28 m Installation of safety and monitoring Electrical work in 29 bottom outlet. Spill way lightening 172.7 88% T- CG C-925 mcm facilities, Improvements to the Dam, sluice including Electrical work electro mech..work L- 103 m Improvement to spill Mechanical work in inlet Norton (CEB) Installation SMF, improvements to Improvements to 30 H- 29 m way including electro and main distribution 192.3 88% T- CG dam bottom outlet C-395 mcm mech. work, board, control gate s, L- 2033 m Installation of SMF, Improvements to Electrical work in control Castlereigh Electro mechanical Electrical work in the 31 H- 47 m the dam, improvements to electrical chamber, bridge and 104.98 89% (CEB) T- CG work in bottom outlet, sluice, C-55 mcm control chamber, galleries L- 1143 m Kalatuwawa( Installation of SMF, Improvements to Improvements to 32 H- 16 m Outlet work electrical work 42.01 71% NWSDB) abutments and dam spill way C-245 mcm Average per scheme = Rs. 221 million Total Total 3,538 81%
Phase 2 Dams (Additional Financing) Name of Tank Charac Remedial measures in Remedial measures Total cost Risk Index No the dam / Remedial measures in Bund Other -terictics Sluices in Spills Rs M Reduction Agency L- 3310 m Nawakiri Constructed a bridge 1 H- 11 m Provided monitoring facilities, 86 T- HE across RB spillway 22% C-60 mcm L- 4400 m Improvement of tank bund; Rip rap Site office; Installed steel Padaviya Improved with new GI Installed 3 2 H- 18 m replaced; consisting of toe drain and gates in main canal; 131 T- HE pipes; emergency gates 35% C-105 mcm toe filter bathing place
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The World Bank LK Dam Safety and Water Resources Planning (DSWRPP) ( P093132 )
Installation of SMF, Improvement of Repair of spill way. Repair walls, const. of Construction of watcher 3 Angamuwa tank bund; Rip rap replaced; Construction of 167 gabion walls hut; Boat yard 82% consisting of toe drain and toe filter; curtain wall; L- 3100 m Improvement of tank bund; Rip rap Improved RB & LB Access road impt; Mahawilac 4 H- 12 m replaced; loading berms; toe drain sluices; provided new Repaired the spill uprooting trees in canal 210 hchiya T-HE 64% C-40 mcm and toe filter; Installation of SMF emergency gates bunds Improvement of tank bund; Rip rap Mahakana L- 3219 m Impt. RB & LB sluices; Bathing steps, inspect. replaced; toe drain and toe filter; 5 darawa T- H- 17 m improved access road Repaired radial gates steps, security hut, guard 102 fixed monitoring facilities; gravelling 33% HE C-44.7 mcm to the sluice stones the road Improve tank bund; Replacing Construction of Hume Reduce rock surface Repairs to tank bund Kottukachc collapsed Rip rap, filling of tank bund, pipe culvert & level of D/S and U/S 6 road, Construction of 74.5 hiya consisting of toe drain and toe filter, construction of a new of the spill and bathing steps 68% removing trees on the tank bund sluice construed spill gate Improvement in tank bund including Removal of damaged earth work and Rip rap Construction of a service Kachchima sluice and new spill 7 establishment, removal of trees in road, a new dam office 97 du way gate 40% tank bund, construction of toe filter and bathing steps constructed and toe drain Rehabilitation of 2.6 m of tank bund Const. of a new sluice Improvt to spill No:1 Const. of a road at spill,
8 Thoppur and construction of a net barrier for at Supply channel & at Thoppur tank improvt. to Potta 48.3 53% weeds sluice bund & sluice drainage Providing toe drain and toe filer Rip rap in a section of tank, construction Construction of service 9 Wan Ela 69.17 of piezometers, and level roads, and bathing steps 22% monuments Improvements in Badagiriya tank Improvements to Construction of R/B, 10 Bandagiriya Construction of toe road 78.29 62 % bund sluice L/B gated spills Janaranjan Improvements to tank bund, breach Improvts of main Improvements to Const. of roads, R walls 36% 11 108.5 a filling of a section of tank bund, sluices spill No:1, in channels.
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The World Bank LK Dam Safety and Water Resources Planning (DSWRPP) ( P093132 )
L- m Sorabora Improvements to tank bund, and Rip Improvements to 12 H- m 19.46 64% T-HE Rap protection, spill way, C-20.7 mcm L- 1776 m Unnachchai Rehabilitation of mechanical system Electrification of sluice Improvements to LB 13 H- 15 m 73.81 46% T-HE and electrification of radial gates (03) gates spill C-51 mcm Improvement of sluice Improvement to access 14 Badulu Oya Improvement to tank bund, 59.85 44% tower road, box culverts L- 1113 m Electricity supply for Lighting road and Muthukand Filling pot holes in tank bund and Reconstruction of 15 H- 22 m the sluice, improvet to boundary blocks, 20.04 33% iya T-HE improvements to Rip Rap. spill basin C-30.3 mcm the sluice. retaining wall Cost per scheme - Rs 90 million Total Total 1,345 47%
Name of Tank Charac Remedial measures in Remedial measures Total cost RI No the dam / Remedial measures in Bund Other -terictics Sluices in Spills Rs M reduction Agency Ulhitiya- Installation of SMF, construction of rathkinda toe drain, Rip Rap, construction of Removed trees T- L- 4670 m Improvements of Rehabilitation of bund 261 + mid-drains from and cascade drains blocked spill, 16 HE;Includin H- 28 m sluices including road access roads const 482.54 = Installation of SMF and ther civil Civil and Electro 54% g Minipe C-146 mcm electro mechl work of bathing steps, 743.54 works, mechanical and electrical mechanical work trans basin works canal Installation of SMF, improvements of Rehabilitation of access Henanigala Improvements to 17 D/S slopes of dam, toe filter and toe Clearing of spill way roads, toe road, foot 125.5 36% (MASL) sluice gates drain, improvements of Rip Rap step D/S slope, Installation of SMF, improvements of Rehabilitation of Rehabilitation of crest Bambaraw 18 dam slopes, improvements to toe outlet sluice gates, road, toe road, cons. of 59.27 35% ana (MASL) drain and toe filter, Rip rap servicing sluice gates bathing steps
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The World Bank LK Dam Safety and Water Resources Planning (DSWRPP) ( P093132 )
Muwagam Installation of SMF, improving bund Rehabilitation of bund Installation of a sluice Repair of surface of 19 mana & D/S slopes, construction of toe top road, construction of 64.09 33% gates (cast iron (in BC spill (MASL) drain, installation of electric items bathing steps, Name of Tank Charac Remedial measures in Remedial measures Total cost No the dam / Remedial measures in Bund Other Risk Index -terictics Sluices in Spills Rs M Agency Pimburatht L- 1951 m hewa 20 H- 18 m Improve bund, slope protection 261 64% (MASL) T- C-49 mcm HE Installation of SMF, improvement of Construction of Pusselawin Repairs of road, new 21 U/s and D/s slopes of the bund, Rip Bridge cum spill way 42.4 33% na (MASL) bathing places, toe road rap structure Udawalawa L- 4023 m Installation of SMF, electro Drain clearing and road Repairs to bypass Electro mechanical 22 (MASL) T- H- 39 m mechanical work and improvements establishment, import. 91.47 45% gates work in spill HE C-269 mcm to bypass gates of toe road Renovating the spill, Panakkiniy construction of a gabion 23 Improving tank bund and rip rap wing wall at Spills of 15.14 29% a (MASL) wall bathing places LB and RB Ambagaha Construction of bridge Improvement to earth bund including Construction of RB Construction of spill 24 gama retaining wall and 34.72 44% to Rip Rap, and LB sluices way (MASL) bathing steps Urusitawe Installation of SMF, Rehabilitation Repairs to sluice Improvement of spill 25 48.66 29% wa (MASL) and improvement of tank bund structures, way Muthyanka L- 1829 m Bund raising rip rap & bund top road New radial gates & Construction of Unit 26 ddu (NCP) H- 20 m Fixed radial gates 599.5 56% & flank bunds (119.47m) structures office, bathing steps, T-HE C-50.5 mcm Periyapand Improvement of tank bund including Improvements to LB Improvements to Construction of bathing 27 ivirachchan 72.44 29% Rip Rap establishment and i and RB sluices spills steps (do) )
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The World Bank LK Dam Safety and Water Resources Planning (DSWRPP) ( P093132 )
Thodaman Electo-Mechl work, constructed cut 28 aru barrage off wall, cushion, raising gate sill 382 94% (NCP) level, flood protection bunds etc. Dunumadal Improvements to concrete dam, de- Improvements to Improvements to spill 29 43.94 78% awa (KMC) silting of tank, sluice gates tail canal, and road Roseneath Improvements to the tank bund, Improvement to road 30 24.62 64% (KMC) structures and removing silt way L- 4188 m Installation of SMF, improvements to Improvements to Maussakela Electrification of gate Improvements of dam 31 H- 41 m dam and valve house, construction of spill way gates & 69.24 75% (CEB) T-CG operations monitoring office C-144 mcm Gibbon walls at d/s steel wire ropes Total Average Rs 161 million Total 2740 50%
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The World Bank LK Dam Safety and Water Resources Planning (DSWRPP) ( P093132 )
ANNEX 9. Status of Current Feasibility Studies of Proposed Investment Projects
No. Project Present Status Feasibility studies in upper Elahera canal was completed, and the Feasibility Study for upper Elahera canal constructions are on-going; In NCP canal, the feasibility studies 1 & North Central Province canal completed by Lahmaya Internat. Co. and the constructions are on- going under Mahweli Water Security Investment Program Feasibility study on Environmental Environment Assessment (EA) for the Phase 1 (Moragahakanda to Assessment of Trans basin diversion of Hurulu wewa, Mannakkattiya, Eru wewa & up to Mahakanadarawa) 2 Mahaweli Ganga flows to North Central has been completed. EA for NCP will be done after completing the Province. Feasibility Study 3 Feasibility study on the River for Jaffna Construction works are on-going under the supervision of ID Through this project, which covers 25 Divisional secretary areas in Galle, Matara and Hambantota Districts, it is proposed to divert part of the water (117 MCM per year) to the adjacent south-eastern dry- Diversion of Gin and Nilwala Ganga zone areas to cultivate 4,000 ha in both Yala and Maha seasons. In 4 project to south eastern dry zone addition, it is expected to provided 160 MCM per year to the propose Hambantota Industrial Zone and to generate 73 Gig watt Hours of electricity per year. The feasibility study has been completed with the total cost estimated at Rs. 76,000 million. Feasibility study to investigate the Feasibility Study is on-going and is part of a contract that includes 5 option of increasing the capacity of engineering procurement & construction contract. Maduru oya reservoir FS completed by a French company (Agence Francaise de Development AFD). The scope of the projects to ‘ improve livelihoods Feasibility study for Mundeni aru basin of local population in Batticaloa and Ampara districts with improved water resource development project water management in a sustainable way”. The specific objective is to
join the Rugam Tank and the Kithulwewa tank with a dam constructed
across the Mundeniaru to increase cultivated area and to reduce the
impact of inundation of the downstream area of the basin.
6 Proposed to provide irrigation facilities to 3,380 ha. 14 mcm of water
from 03 reservoirs for domestic and industrial usage, and 1.2 GWh
and 2.1 GWh hydro-electricity generations.
According to FS, the NPV is Rs. 8,782 million, IRR is 15.8%, and the
cost-benefit ratio is 1.7; project feasibility is satisfactory. The total Environmental and Social Assessment cost of the project will be Rs. 24,500 million.
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The World Bank LK Dam Safety and Water Resources Planning (DSWRPP) ( P093132 )
Proposals have been prepared to improve irrigation, land, and crop productivity in 40 large schemes (command area is more than 600 ha) Feasibility study on broad-scale and 40 medium schemes (command area is between 80 ha to 600 ha). 8 improvement of irrigation efficiency in This is an integrated programme with four line agencies – Irrigation Sri Lanka Department, Department of Agriculture, Irrigation Management Division, and Agrarian Development Department. The estimated project cost is Rs.18, 500 million.
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The World Bank LK Dam Safety and Water Resources Planning (DSWRPP) ( P093132 )
ANNEX 10. TRAINING DAYS COMPLETED
In- Component Overseas Total country Dam safety 219 268 487 HMIS & Ground-water monitoring 229 111 340 Procurement 317 317 GIS and comp. applications 91 91 Other 149 149 Total 1,005 379 1,384
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The World Bank LK Dam Safety and Water Resources Planning (DSWRPP) ( P093132 )
ANNEX 11. DELAYS IN CONTRACT COMPLETION
Agreed contract timeframe (months) Original Project Additional Financing 12 18 24 12 18 24 No. of contracts per agreed timeframe 19 7 5 24 7 1 Avg. actual timeframe completed 28 33 34 18 21 41 Increase in the period as a percentage 133% 83% 42% 50% 17% 71%
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