DRR-Team Mission Report Morocco – Souss Massa Et Draa River Basin/Guelmim

DRR-Team Mission Report Morocco – Souss Massa et Draa River Basin/Guelmim

Flooding in Guelmim November 2014

25 February 2016 Mission Report

DRR-TEAM MOROCCO

Document title Mission Report DRR Morocco – Souss Massa et Draa River Basin – Guelmim Status Draft (1) Date 25/2/2016 Project name DRR-Team scoping mission in Morocco Reference DRR15MA01

Drafted by Ele Jan Saaf/Marc van Dijk Checked by Date/initials check Approved by

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SUMMARY

From 25th to 29th January 2016 a team from the Dutch Disaster Risk Reduction facility visited Morocco. The team was invited by the Ministère délégué auprès du Ministre de l’Energie, des Mines de l’Eau et de l’Environnement, chargé de l’Eau. The main reason that the team was in Morocco was to provide the Moroccan government with advice on flood early warning systems. In November 2014 severe floods occurred in the Guelmim area in the South of Morocco, and these events prompted the Moroccan authorities to invite a mission from The Netherlands.

The mission was well received and had a very effective and efficiently organised visit to Guelmim. The mission was also able to meet with a large number of donors due to the hospitality and organisational support of the Embassy of the Kingdom of The Netherlands in Rabat.

The main conclusions of the Dutch DRR’s team visit to Morocco are:

1. The Moroccan authorities have been able to effectively minimise the damage and human casualties from the floods in 2014, and are well prepared for a possible recurrence of floods in Guelmim; 2. There are a number of small improvements that can be made to the early warning systems for flash-floods in the South of the country. In the case of Guelmim the installation of automated water level gauges can advance warning time for flash floods with several hours only; improvements to incorporate rainfall forecasts can be more effective; 3. Proposals of the Dutch DRR-Team include suggestions for improved cooperation between the meteorological institute and the hydraulic departments. This is embedded within a framework of proposals for overall improved integration between the various line and service ministries through a multi-stakeholder dialogue as part of the three phases of protection from floods (prevention, spatial planning and crisis management). 4. Proposals have also focussed on improved communication before, during and after the floods. This has been linked to working with schools and using mobile phone technology as tools for communication (as long as the systems are operational). 5. For The Netherlands to be able to further support Morocco with these interventions a formal process of developing commitment from the Moroccan stakeholders is proposed.

CONTENTS

1 BACKGROUND 7 1.1 Context 7

2 DRR-TEAM MISSION 8 2.1 Introduction 8 2.2 Scope of Work 8 2.3 Approach 8 2.4 Objectives 8

3 RESULTS AND FINDINGS 10 3.1 Introduction 10 In this section the results and findings, both from a technical and from a policy and institutional perspective, are presented. 10 3.2 Findings on early warning systems in the Souss Massa et Draa River Basin 10 3.3 Findings on regional/national standardization and monitoring of the Flood Early Warning Systems 15 3.4 Findings on financing the implementation of a regional/national standardization and monitoring of existing Flood Early Warning Systems in Morocco 17

4 RECOMMENDATIONS AND PROPOSED FOLLOW-UP ACTIVITIES 18 4.1 On Flood Early Warning Systems for Guelmim and Souss Massa et Draa basin 18 4.2 On regional/national standardization and monitoring of the Flood Early Warning Systems 22 4.3 On financing the implementation of the most promising measures 27 4.4 Follow-up 29

ANNEX A – DRR-TEAM 30

ANNEX B – TEAM MEMBERS 31

ANNEX C – TERMS OF REFERENCE 32

ANNEX D – MISSION PROGRAMME 38

ANNEX E – DOCUMENTS CONSULTED 39

ANNEX F – SELECTION OF PICTURES 39

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

ABH L'Agence du Bassin Hydraulique de Souss Massa et du Drâa AGIRE Programme d’Appui a la Gestion Intégrée des Ressources en Eau CTB Coopération Technique Belge Delft-FEWS Delft Flood Early Warning System DG Research FP7 Directorate-General Research 7th Framework Programme DMN National Meteorological Service DRR Dutch Risk Reduction / Disaster Risk Reduction EC European Commission ECMWF European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts EIB European Investment Bank GFS NOAA Global Forecast System GIS Geographical Information Systems GiZ German Technical Corporation HEC-HMS HEC Hydrologic Modelling System HEC-RAS HEC River Analysis System IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ITC International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation IWRM Integrated Water Resources Management KfW German Development Bank MATRA Maatschappelijke Transformatie MDF Management for Development Foundation MoI Ministry of Interior NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Orsec Organisation de la Réponse de SÉcurité Civile RVO Rijjksdienst voor Ondernemend Nederland SDC Swiss Development Cooperation WRF Weather Research and Forecasting

1 BACKGROUND

1.1 Context

Violent storms consisting of two successive periods of rain between November 20 and 24, and November 25 to 30, 2014 caused widespread flooding in a large part of south Morocco, including several dry river beds. More than 120 mm of rain fell in 24 hours along in Tangier, in Sidi Ifni, along the chain of the High and Anti Atlas mountains, and in the centre and east of the country. A severe drop in temperatures with snowfall in altitudes from 1,700 meters further complicated the situation.

In total 47 people died, 1,093 people were rescued, and 1,690 people living in dangerous areas were evacuated as a precautionary measure. Thousands of adobe (mud brick) houses were destroyed and more than 100 roads were blocked by the flood waters and approximately 1.000 bridges were damaged. Losses totalled over 6 billion dirham (USD 600 million). Main territories affected were Guelmim, Chtouka Ait Baha, Taroudant and Smara, all within the river basin of the Souss Massa et Draa.

In 2008, 2009 and 2010 mainly pre Sahara regions with a semi-dry to dry climate also experienced (flash) floods, with serious impact on people, livestock, infrastructure and agriculture. The risk of similar flood disasters in the short and medium future is significant.

2 DRR-TEAM MISSION

2.1 Introduction

In this section the main scope of work, approach, objectives and description of the mission is presented.

2.2 Scope of Work

The location of the mission was in the Guelmin Es Samara Region.

The scoping mission included the following tasks:

- Analyses and advice on reducing the risks of flooding in the Guelmim region with advice on an Flood Early Warning Systems for this region; - An inventory of the possibilities of financing an Flood Early Warning System in the Guelmim region by IFI’s such as WB, EU (ENI) or African Development Bank (AfDB); - Analyses and advice on a regional/national standardization and monitoring of Flood Early Warning Systems in Morocco; - Field visits in the Guelmim Region; - Presentation of preliminary advice on Flood Early Warning Systems in the Guelmim region and preliminary advice on a regional/national standardization and monitoring of the Flood Early Warning Systems for the Moroccan Government.

The mission was implemented from 25 to 29 January 2016. The time allocated for the mission was one week. The report is a reflection of the findings and recommendations within the context of the length of the mission.

2.3 Approach

The approach chosen by the consultants has been based upon the recommendations of RVO and the experience of the team with other DRR-Team missions and similar assignments. The main elements of the approach were:

1. The official request from the Moroccan authorities has been the main focus and guiding element of the mission; 2. Recommendations have been developed around “anchors” in the Dutch water sector that can support and provide services for the implementation of the recommendations; 3. Efforts have been made to identify financing sources; 4. Efforts have been made to identify and propose concrete follow-up activities.

2.4 Objectives

Provision of technical assistance to the National Government of Morocco with specific advice on short-, medium and long-term Flood Early Warning Systems for the Guelmim Region and advice on a regional / national standardization and monitoring of Flood Early Warning Systems in Morocco.

The mission:

- Analysed the flood risk aspects in the Guelmim region;

- Analysed and advised on the implementation of an Flood Early Warning System in the Guelmim Region; - Analysed and advised on a regional / national standardization and monitoring of Flood Early Warning Systems in Morocco; - Made an inventory of the possibilities for financing the implementation of an Flood Early Warning System in the Guelmim region and the implementation of a regional / national standardization and monitoring of existing Flood Early Warning Systems in Morocco by IFI’s such as WB, EU, AFD, SDC, GiZ or AfDB; - Advised and presented (preliminary) results of the mission to national (relevant ministries) Authorities at the end of the mission; - Drafted a comprehensive report.

3 RESULTS AND FINDINGS

3.1 Introduction

In this section the results and findings, both from a technical and from a policy and institutional perspective, are presented.

3.2 Meteorological context

Guelmim province is a pre Sahara region with a semi-dry to dry climate. In recent years there has been an increase in heavy rainfall events in Morocco, resulting in unprecedented (flash) floods. The violent storms on 22-30 November 2014 in the Guelmim region resulted in flash floods and wadi (Oued) floods. The IPCC 2012 documents indicate that climate scenarios for Mediterranean climates are tending towards increased aridity and higher inter- and intra-annual rainfall variability, resulting in more frequent extremes. Together with rapid urban and economic development in flood prone areas risks related to flooding have been increased in Mediterranean countries, such as Morocco. The recent floods in Guelmim and Sidi Ifni are typical examples of extreme rainfall events that are exceptional. Rainfall totals for the event reached 250 mm over a period of several days, where the annual rainfall sum is 120 mm

3.2 Findings on early warning systems in the Souss Massa et Draa River Basin

A strategy for protection against inundations includes planning and any or all of below mitigation measures:

1. Detection of flood prone areas (floodplain mapping, risk mapping) 2. Structural protection measures (dams, reservoirs, flood walls) 3. Flood Forecasting and Warning Systems

During the DRR-Team visit information was collected from the local partners to understand and review the current status in Morocco for the above mentioned measures. With the collected information a recommendation was formulated and shortly discussed with the DRPE.

Detection of flood prone areas The Municipalities and ABH (L'Agence du Bassin Hydraulique de Souss Massa et du Draa) have a procedure in place to indicate those areas that can be affected by floods. The followed procedure is most often reactive; after each flood they make a list with the local authorities of all areas that have been flooded. All these hotspots are then included in their protection plan. After each flood a map is produced with the hot spots of all areas that were inundated during the flood. The responsibility for protection against flooding rests with the local and regional authorities.

In addition to the produced map with flood prone areas several studies have recently been conducted in Morocco to detect those areas that can be affected by flooding. The Swiss have performed an analysis for the basins of Fes and Beni Mellal and made a practical guide to detect areas prone to flooding “Cartographie du Danger d’Inondation: Guide Pratique pour l’application de la méthode Suisse au Maroc”.1 There is also a recent German study that uses remote sensing data and geographical information systems (GIS) for the detection and identification of areas most likely to be flooded in the future. From the

1 There is no Dutch guide for identification of areas likely to be flooded by flash floods as these events are unknown to The Netherlands. Dutch consultants and research institutes are involved in several similar studies where remote sensing data is used (e.g. Algeria, Afghanistan)

information provided by the DRPE it was not clear if the above mentioned studies were used to detect flood prone areas.

Flood Protection Measures During the DRR mission the team visited some of the flood protection measures that protect the urbanised areas of the cities of Guelmim and Bouizakarne. Figure 1 shows the area of Guelmim and Bouizakarne, where Bouizakarne is upstream of Guelmim.

Figure 1: Area of Guelmim and Bouizakarne

In Guelmim we visited two interesting areas that are indicative for the problems they have in this area. The first area is a new bridge over the Oued Oum Laachar that runs from the city of Guelmim to the new airport, see figure 2.

Figure 2b: new Oued Oum Laachar bridge

Figure 2a: satellite view of new Oued Oum Laachar bridge area

This bridge was just completed before the floods of November 2014. During the peak of the flood this bridge was blocking the floodway of the Oued Oum Laacher and water flowed into the city of Guelmim.

A second site visited in Guelmim was a bridge and new housing district in the city of Guelmim. Figure 3 shows an older satellite image where the construction of a new flood wall is added as a black line. The photo is taken from the bridge and looks upstream; on the left the new flood wall can be seen. The new flood wall was moved forwards to the river by at least 20 meters to protect new houses; this will reduce the width of the floodplain in case of high discharges.

Figure 3a & 3b: satellite view and photo of second Oued Oum Laachar bridge area

The two pictures above of Guelmim show that there is a problem with spatial planning. New houses are constructed close to the river with a negative effect on the discharge capacity of the Oued Oum Laacher. The negative effects are both on the floodway where new bridges reduce the discharge capacity and of the floodplain where the river has less space. Other visited areas and bridges in Guelmim showed similar signs.

The next example shows the situation in Bouizakarne where the city was partly flooded because of a breach of a flood wall upstream of the city. The figure below shows the flood wall that breached, causing the main discharge of the Oued to flow to the city of Bouizakarne instead of following its normal path.

Figure 4: breached flood wall area of Bouizakarne

Because of this breach the city was suddenly inundated and nobody knew where the water was coming from. There are also two reservoirs upstream that are used for water storage in case of a flood; the dams of both reservoirs were overtopped during the first flood peak in November. The storage capacity of these reservoirs is reduced considerably because of sedimentation.

Figure 5: picture of the breached flood wall

The above picture shows the flood wall and the section where it was breached. After the flood the flood wall was partly restored using sand and gravel from the river section just below the breach area. More work will be required in order to fill this breach properly, and to refill the river section with gravel.

The example of Bouizakarne shows that maintenance of reservoirs and flood walls is required in non-flooding situations. Although these maintenance actions are included in the ‘Modèle de procédure de prévention Inondation Guelmim’ and should be followed up starting the month of September; not all actions were undertaken.

Flood Forecasting and Warning Systems There is currently no flood forecasting or flood early warning system for the Guelmim basin. There are several hydro-meteorological gauges in the basin; these are not automated. Transfer of data from the hydro gauges to the ABH provincial office is done twice daily, where the observer transfers the manually recorded data through VHF radio. In case of a flood the frequency of the monitoring and transfer process is increased. After receiving the observed data, the province stores the data in an Excel sheet and sends the monthly overviews to the National DRPE office.

For Guelmim there is an early warning procedure in place that is followed when a flood is expected. This procedure is as follows:

 The Meteorological institute of Morocco makes rainfall forecasts with a lead time of 2 to 3 days. When a flood situation is expected the ABH office in Agadir is informed as a pre-warning.  The ABH office in Agadir follows the meteorological forecasts and makes a qualitative impact analysis. There are no hydrological or hydraulic models or detailed meteorological forecasts available at the ABH office in Agadir.  The water level, which is gauged twice daily, as well as observed precipitation data, are analysed manually; these data are however not checked against thresholds.  When a flood situation occurs or has a high chance to occur, the municipalities and local ABH offices are warned and appropriate actions are taken.  The actions are all included in the plan ORSEC (Organisation de la Réponse de SÉcurité Civile).

The plan ORSEC is the generic emergency plan in case of disasters, when the local means are not sufficient. Each province has a plan ORSEC that is regularly reviewed and annual meetings are organised to update the plan.

The current procedure of warning in case of a flood and the plan ORSEC show that there is little focus on long-term risk prevention and mitigating risks. Focus is on responding once an event takes place.

During the flood of November 2014 Morocco’s National Meteorological Service (DMN) sent pre-warnings as the meteorological forecast models indicated an extreme amount of rainfall over Morocco’s southern regions. The pre-warning was picked up by National newspapers and TV, but not by the local authorities. Reason was probably that the weather warning was very broad and most of the local authorities in this area have no experience with serious flooding. Only when the first flooding problems and flood fatalities were communicated the responsible agencies started to react. The plan ORSEC was initiated and the local authorities started to close roads to traffic that were inundated. Most of the fatal casualties were caused by cars trying to cross the river at places that were flooded. It was clear that these risks were underestimated by the local drivers.

The Guelmim area was flooded a second time at the end of November 2014. For this second flood period the local authorities were alerted on time and adequate measures taken to prevent further casualties (following the plan ORSEC). This time the local people were aware of the risk of flooding and followed the provided instructions.

Conclusion of the flooding in Guelmim is that although the DMN issued a weather warning for the southern regions of Morocco there were no follow up actions taken to prior to the flood. The responsible agencies did not receive enough detailed information to understand the impact of the weather warning and were too late to take the necessary actions to reduce the damage.

3.3 Findings on regional/national standardization and monitoring of the Flood Early Warning Systems

There is no national flood forecasting and warning system in Morocco. The only flood early warning system in Morocco is developed for the Ourika basin, where an automated telemetry system was installed by a Japanese company (Japanese funding) after the floods of 1995. In other river basins there are some automated gauges available, these are however not integrated in a flood early warning system. The DRPE wants to progressively automate their gauging network and integrate these in new flood early warning systems. In Morocco most focus to invest in new technology is in the larger river basins and economic key regions, particularly in the wetter Northern part of the country. This leaves the dryer Southern part of the country, with the most vulnerable population, without a network of automated gauges or flood early warning system.

Data collection and data storage is the responsibility of several agencies among which the National Meteorological Service, the DRPE and Ministry of irrigation. These institutes have their own gauging network and do not share this information on a regular basis. When visiting the hydro-meteorological stations of Taghjijt near the Oued Siyad there were two meteorological stations next to each other, one from the DMN and one from the ABH. Observed data from these stations are not shared and consequently not compared with each other.

Figure 6: meteorological station at Taghjijt. This location has two meteorological stations next to each other, one from the DMN gauge network and one from the ABH gauge network.

The only agency in Morocco with a national forecasting role is the DMN. This agency collects meteorological observation data with a national network of gauges. The DMN also produces weather predictions (from the ALADIN/NORAF and ALBACHIR models), disseminated to other agencies in aggregated form. All data products can be obtained from the DMN by entering a product form and against costs. Because of the costs the DRPE is not using the products from DMN directly and prefers to install their own gauging network and develop their own meteorological forecasts from open source products. The hydrologists of DRPE are familiar with the NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS), and have plans to downscale these global forecasts to higher resolution weather predictions using open source models like the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. They currently lack the processing tools to do this on an automated way.

Institutional Complexities

One of the pervasive problems that the region is faced with is a contradiction between the demands of the line ministries under the Ministry of the Interior and the service ministries as required by the services in urban areas.

Service (deconcentrated) ministries can be described as those that provide services such as water, energy, environment, urban development, airports, and whatever services may be required. These ministries develop programmes and plans outside of urban areas which are not necessarily coordinated with the municipality and the municipal authorities.

Line ministries are those subjugated to the Ministry of the Interior (MoI). These are the main implementers of any kind of operational activity in regions and municipalities. The MoI has delegated its authority to appointed governors and Walis (comparable to the French “Prefect”). These appointed functionaries have a lot of authority and are the main actors at local level.

In terms of early warning systems and flood protection, the plans that are developed are developed by the service ministries. However, in many cases they need to be implemented by the line ministries, and in this case often the municipality or the region. As a result, the implementation is often not as required in the plans, because the plans are prepared by one organisation and the implementation is done by another.

The line ministries, the implementing authorities in this case, often develop their own parallel plans which do not completely go hand-in-hand with the plans developed by the service mysteries. Alternatively they reinterpret the plans of the line ministries.

One example of this is the construction of the bridge towards the airport under construction in Guelmim, just outside of the urban area. This bridge is a very dangerous obstruction to possible floods but its construction was not communicated to the River Basin Authority. Despite indications by the River Basin Authority that this bridge would be a problem and would cause additional flooding, it was built, and it is still there at this moment.

Figure 7 illustrates the analysis above and visualises the locations for improved integration. This is also included in the last section on proposed measures.

Figure 7: Visualisation of locations for improved integration

3.4 Findings on financing the implementation of a regional/national standardization and monitoring of existing Flood Early Warning Systems in Morocco

Possible funding for flood protection in the Guelmim area in Morocco can be differentiated into two categories; loans and grants.

Large institutions such as the European Investment Bank (EIB) and the German Development Bank (KfW) mainly provide loans.

Grants are more often provided by organisations like the German Technical Corporation (GiZ), the French Embassy, the Agence Française de Développement, (French Development Agency) and some of the other bilateral agencies.

What is important to note here is that for some of these institutions the amount available for loans is too large for any kind of an intervention in this region that is based on an effective and efficient use of funds. For example, the EIB will not look at any intervention which is less than 60 million Euros. Even the German Development Bank (KfW) only becomes interested starting at 5 million Euros.

Interesting sources of grant funding for some of the interventions proposed by the DRR- Team mission are bilateral funds from the French and Dutch embassies which focus more strongly on governance, societal transformation and human rights. There is a clear link between the proposals elaborated by the DRR-Team in the next section of the report and the priorities of these funding opportunities.

Dutch solutions of follow-up could be possible depending on Dutch international programs (RVO) and available budget specific for Morocco

The German Technical Cooperation (GiZ) is actively implementing a large programme called Programme d’Appui a la Gestion Intégrée des Ressources en Eau (AGIRE). Within the context of this programme there is an intervention based in Agadir which focusses on some of the items which are also addressed in the proposals below, namely re-use of treated waste water and aquifer recharge. This programme is co-financed by the Swiss Development Cooperation (SDC). During meetings with both GiZ and SDC they expressed their interest in pursuing a joint intervention in the Guelmim region. However no concrete financing opportunities were mentioned.

Besides the fact that some of the donors are only able to provide very large sums of money, the mission also considers it unnecessary to propose and fund complex early warning systems for flood protection in the Guelmim area. The report contains a number of recommendations, but only the salient ones have been adopted in our proposal for future activities.

We have therefore developed a different proposal for funding. In fact there are two proposals for funding which are detailed in the sections below. After that there are also a number of stand-alone activities that can be funded.

4 RECOMMENDATIONS AND PROPOSED FOLLOW-UP ACTIVITIES

4.1 On Flood Early Warning Systems for Guelmim and Souss Massa et Draa basin

The flash floods of 2014 show that more focus is needed on mitigating risks, rather than responding to a crisis once it happens. The traditional approach to flood risk management of taking structural measures is not good enough anymore. In addition to the structural measures, non-structural approaches must also be followed. The UN ISDR

Guidelines for the reduction of flood losses states that the ‘operation of a flood warning and response system is the most effective method for reducing the risk of loss of life and economic losses’. The main goal in flood early warning systems is to provide reliable information to the national and local authorities, general public, and emergency services under the threat of potential flooding.

A flood early warning system requires a combination of data (observations and weather forecasts), flood forecasting tools, well trained forecasters, and warning dissemination tools. The flood early warning system must provide sufficient lead-time for the responsible agencies to respond. When possible the lead time must be increased to potentially lower the level of damages and loss of life. Longer lead times are however most often less accurate; it is important that the flood early warning system is accurate enough to promote confidence so that communities will respond when warned.

The following sections will cover the main components of a flood early warning system for Guelmim and the Souss Massa et Draa basin. Development of a flood early warning system for an individual basin is not of great value as the occurrence of floods is very rare in individual basins. When developing a flood early warning system, it should be developed for the complete Souss Massa et Draa basin or as an integral part of a national flood early warning system.

Observation and forecast data Flash floods like the November 2014 floods in Guelmim are extreme events that are difficult to monitor with conventional hydro-meteorological gauging stations. In the Guelmim basin there are currently only two hydrological gauges at which water levels are measured and flows can be manually computed from rating curves. As there are several important Oueds that are not measured it is advised to install new level gauges for these Oueds to have a better understanding of the contributions of each Oued during a flood event. The same is valid for rain gauges; there are only few rain gauges in the basin and more detailed information on local rainfall is required. Before installing new hydro- meteorological gauges, it is advised to first merge existing gauging networks (DMN, DRPE, Irrigation,..) and optimise the integrated gauging network.

The existing hydrological gauges are manual gauges and do not use telemetry for data transfer. As most of the hydrological gauges only observe water levels for several days a year it is not required to invest in telemetry. During the November 2014 floods part of the telecommunication network in the area was not functioning anymore; the VHF radio for communicating observations was still working. Cost effective solutions can be to install cameras on strategic locations in the Oued and use this information in the flood early warning system to have an overview of the critical locations.

Meteorological forecast data in the form of Numerical Weather Predictions is available in Morocco and produced by the DMN. These weather predictions are essential for an efficient flood early warning system as this gives the forecaster an outlook of several days with information on the expected precipitation rates. Although the weather predictions are not always trusted by hydrologists it is still the best information to be used in a flood early warning system.

Recommendation: Merge existing hydro-meteorological gauging networks and add new hydrological gauges on the Oueds that contribute most to the total flow of the basin.

Recommendation: Use Numerical Weather Predictions from the DMN to make forecast outlooks with a lead time of several days.

Flood forecasting tools The term “Flood Forecasting Tools” is used to indicate that a flood forecasting system is a combination of several modules (or tools) that together form the system. The required flood forecasting tools are:

 Data incorporation tools to collect data and information from a range of different sources  Data analysis tools to analyse the collected data  Simulation models to use the data and run scenarios with possible impacts  Display tools to display the collected data and model scenarios  Forecasting framework and database, to integrate the above tools and store the data.

For the Guelmim and Souss Massa et Draa basins the recommended flood forecasting tools would primarily be a framework using numerical weather predictions with simple relations between the observed and predicted rainfall, and discharge. As there are not many (automated) gauging stations in the basin it is difficult to develop complex numerical simulation models; these will not add much reliable information in case of a flood. The use of more simple data analysis tools of the collected data can be very effective and will provide the agencies responsible for flood forecasting and early warning useful information. Some examples of such data analysis tools, used in operational flood early warning systems, are provided below.

An example of a data analysis tool can be a map that shows the expected rainfall volumes for individual basins or hydrological response units; as shown below for England and Wales. The map includes simple colour coding for rainfall thresholds that are exceeded. The rainfall data used for Morocco would be the Numerical Weather Predictions from the DMN for the first 2-3 days and global GFS systems for longer lead times.

Figure 1: Rainfall Map of England and Wales with rainfall thresholds crossed

With the predicted rainfall simple rainfall-discharge relations can be used to estimate the expected discharge for important locations in the basins. These relations can be made with the current network of rainfall and hydrological gauges.

Other data analysis tools can be correlation plots that show the correlation between observed rainfall with observed discharge. These plots can also be used for predicted rainfall and predicted discharge, for discharge-discharge correlations, or water level correlations. The methods are still very common in advanced operational flood early warning systems and used as an additional source of information to more advanced simulation models.

Figure 1: Correlation plots showing discharge – level correlations for a river in Australia

Recommendation: Develop a set of simple flood forecasting tools using Numerical Weather Predictions as input and where possible automatically collected observed data.

Training and education Development of a flood early warning system also requires a proper training plan for all staff involved so they are comfortable in using the system. The ABH regional office in Agadir is the best location to organise training. All local ABH employees would need yearly training sessions and regular exercises to understand the flood early warning system and share experiences of the previous year(s). The yearly training would also need to include basic training on meteorological data used and hydrological data and tools.

Warning dissemination Forecasts produced by a flood early warning system will need to be communicated. This can be done by adding the warnings to web pages or actively sending messages out to emergency responders or to the greater public. The example of Guelmim showed that although the meteorological forecasts were good and on time, there was no organised response. It is therefore essential that there is a partnership across all levels of the government agencies and that there is a strong working relationship. Institutional arrangements are essential and roles need to be documented in national and regional arrangements. The roles and responsibilities can be as follows:

 The DMN is responsible for the rain gauge network, supported by regional networks.

 ABH is responsible for the basin river gauge networks.  ABH issues warnings and forecasted river levels at key locations.  Province Emergency Services and local government interpret the forecasts and ensure that the community responds.

The plan ORSEC already includes all agreed steps on how to communicate warning information. This plan must be reviewed to make sure that warnings reach those at risk and not only include procedures how the different levels of government agencies should communicate. It is important that community-based emergency plans are activated in response to warnings, to reduce potential impacts on lives and livelihoods.

Clear messages used to communicate flood information are important. Many countries only use colour schemes to communicate flood warnings; these colours are not always clear for the public. Example on the right shows the standard procedure in England on icons used for flood warning.

When making a communication plan it is essential to use multiple communication channels to ensure as many people as possible are warned, to avoid failure of any one channel, and to reinforce the warning message.

To ensure that agencies and the community take action it is therefore important that:

 The community must be aware that they are part of the warning process and they need to be prepared to take action.  Flood warnings and flood forecasts must be clearly communicated through all communication layers.  The warning message must be supported by evidence from multiple sources.  The messages sent out must be consistent across all organisations and communication channels.  The community must have confidence in the warnings and forecasts.

Strong personal and institutional relationships are required between the ABH and Emergency Services and local government.

4.2 On regional/national standardization and monitoring of the Flood Early Warning Systems

Recent flash-floods in Morocco show that a national strategy for implementing flood early warning systems is required. For this national strategy collaboration between government agencies is very important. The role of research institutes and universities is also important as these can develop and test new observation and forecasting techniques, new simulation models, and have an essential role in education and training. This chapter includes several recommendations for setting up a national flood early warning system and shows some examples of tools that can be used in Morocco.

Weather predictions and Morocco’s National Meteorological Service (DMN) The weather predictions (from the ALADIN/NORAF and ALBACHIR models) produced by the DMN are currently disseminated to other agencies in aggregated form. This information can therefore not easily be used by other systems that need this information in digital format. Numerical Weather Predictions (NWP) include precipitation forecasts, input for hydrological simulation models or threshold exceedance tools. As other weather products, like the NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS), can be downloaded without costs from the internet this situation will need to change. Hydrological institutes, like DRPE, will otherwise use the global GFS products and download these to the scale of Morocco using the open source Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. This is a sub-optimal solution as government institutes will base their forecasts on different weather predictions; with different accuracy.

The use of weather radar in flood early warning systems becomes increasingly important. Weather radar is used to obtain a quantitative rainfall estimate for larger areas and can be used to follow the path of extreme rainfall cells. The only information obtained on the weather radar network of DMN is that the quality of the current national radar network (Nouaceur, Fès, Larache, Khouribga and Agadir) is poor and needs to be updated. A good radar network is especially important for the Northern part of the country where urbanisation is denser than in the south.

Recommendation: Make the national weather predictions of Morocco freely available for government agencies and research institutes. Sharing the best possible information between government agencies will improve the quality of the forecasts.

Simulation models in flood early warning systems Hydrological and hydraulic simulation models can play an important role in flood early warning systems. Modern operational flood early warning systems include simulation models to predict water levels and discharges at gauges and un-gauged locations. Development of simulation models for flood early warning systems is essential, especially when looking at longer lead times. The prediction of flood events with a high return period (20 years, 100 years) in conditions with scarce data and high rainfall variability can however result in high model uncertainty. Using models in the Southern parts of Morocco, where data is scarce, must be handled with care as they can give a false sentiment of accuracy. On the other hand, simulation models can also be used to better understand the hydrological and hydraulic behaviour of a catchment. For operational flood early warning systems in arid or semi-arid areas there is a preference to use event- based models instead of continuous models. These types of models are most often simple and easy to use with an initial estimate of the soil moisture condition as most important parameter to tune when a new event is modelled. As the condition prior to an event is most often very dry, an estimate of these soil moisture conditions can easily be made. When models are developed for a national flood early warning system standardisation of models is essential; this reduces the cost of licenses and training of staff.

Two interesting modelling software options for Morocco are HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS. These models are freely available, widely used in Morocco and have a large global user community and best practice information: 1. HEC-HMS : Hydrological Modelling http://www.hec.usace.army.mil/software/hec- hms/ 2. HEC-RAS : modélisation hydraulique 1D http://www.hec.usace.army.mil/software/hec-ras/

Recommendation: Use models with care in regions where data is scarce, when possible use freely available models with a proper knowledge base in Morocco.

National open hydro-meteorological database Lack of rainfall and discharge data makes the development, calibration and validation of simulation models a difficult task. For the development of a national flood early warning system a central place where observed and forecast data is collected and stored is therefore essential. When possible the data must be open and should be freely available for use and re-use. The international trend is that governments see data as a valuable natural resource and a strategic asset to the government agencies, its partners and the public. Government agencies must feel responsible for managing their data and making it available, discoverable and usable by others. This will promote efficiency and effectiveness and has the potential to create economic opportunity and improve the citizens’ quality of live.

The national database should also be used as an archive with information of past flood events. Flood events are most often seen as separate events, where collected information and studies are lost because of scattered storage. There is a role for a central storage area where experts can easily analyse past events to improve the national expertise on floods.

Recommendation: Make a national database with hydro-meteorological data that can be shared among agencies and when possible with the public.

Combine flood and drought systems Warning systems for floods and droughts have in common that there is a large overlap of the required data. Both systems use observed hydrological and meteorological data and use Numerical Weather Forecasts as input to have an outlook to the future. The main difference between floods and droughts is that drought early warning systems normally look further into the future and use a different range of weather forecast products or climatology as input to the simulation models. The simulation models used can also be different and work on large time steps in drought early warning systems. A big advantage of having one system for drought early warning and flood early warning is that resources can be shared between agencies, the system can be used continuously, and experiences and training shared.

When developing a national flood early warning system it is therefore recommended to use a platform that supports both data and models for floods and droughts. There are examples of such systems that use Delft-FEWS as an integrated platform in Taiwan, Italy and Indonesia.

Recommendation: Develop one national system for floods and droughts.

Useful tools for Morocco This chapter contains a list of tools and ideas that can be used in Morocco for a flood early warning system. It contains the initiative of several research institutes to develop global flood early warning systems, development of apps to communicate information to the public, use of big data for flood inundation and an example of a forecasting platform.

 Floodtags (a social enterprise with head office in The Hague, The Netherlands. Together with a large number of researchers from top universities and institutes, they develop and implement data analysis scripts for water management) developed useful tools that use big data from Twitter. They developed a tool that

detects floods from anomalies in the tweet statistics. After filtering out base noise and classifying the content, the developed algorithm can detect large and smaller floods in any language. Besides floods, the detection algorithm can also be used for other applications such as drought forecasts and identifying rising conflicts over water. (http://www.floodtags.com/). Floodtags won the Dutch water innovation price in 2015.

Figure 1: Example of use of floodtags in Jakarta, Indonesia. Twitter info is used to produce flood maps.

 Several global forecasting models have been developed recently by research institutes. The Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), jointly developed by the European Commission and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), couples state-of-the art weather forecasts with a hydrological model and provides global river conditions. (http://www.globalfloods.eu/). Another global system is hosted by Deltares and developed with several universities. Both systems use global gauging networks in combination with global weather forecasts and provide global river conditions. Results of these models for Morocco are not very accurate yet as no local gauging networks are used.

Figure 1: Global Flood Awareness Systems Gloffis and Glofas

 Mobile Apps are becoming more common to disseminate information to the public. DRPE is currently developing a mobile App for Morocco, example of a similar app is shown below for the Ebro in Spain. In the Netherlands there are several developers of mobile Apps, used to communicate flood information, flood maps and model results.

Figure 1: Examples of mobile Apps

 A platform that can be used for a basin or national flood early warning system is Delft-FEWS. Delft-FEWS is developed by Deltares and can be downloaded from the Delft-FEWS community web site (http://oss.deltares.nl/web/delft-fews/). The platform is used in more than 40 countries as flood early warning system and can process and display observed data, meteorological forecasts, coastal forecasts, simulation models, etc. There are several Dutch and international consultants that have the expertise to configure a Delft-FEWS system as flood early warning system. As the software platform can be freely downloaded it is also a useful platform for universities and research institutes that play a role in flood early warning system development.

 EartH2Observe “Global Earth Observation for Integrated Water Resource Assessment” is a collaborative project funded under the DG Research FP7 programme. The overall objective is to contribute to the assessment of global water resources through the use of new Earth Observation datasets and techniques. The results of this study are very useful for modeling initiatives in Morocco as it provides long records of calibrated satellite and reanalysis rainfall products that can be used in flood and drought models. (http://www.earth2observe.eu/). The project developed a portal with datasets of satellite rainfall data and ECMWF reanalysis data can be downloaded.

Figure 1: ECMWF reanalysis data of the 28 November 2010 flood event, available on the Eart2Observe data portal.

4.3 On financing the implementation of the most promising measures

The consultants have attempted to develop two “packages” of interventions that integrate the findings and recommendations of the consultants in a logical fashion. In addition many of these measures can also be implemented separately as stand-alone activities.

The first proposal integrates some of the most feasible recommendations in one package.

Package 1: A multi-stakeholder dialogue for sustainable lives in the river basin of Souss-Massa-Draa This package contains proposals for adaptation to climate change and flooding as well as droughts as overarching themes. The proposal focuses on flood protection through spatial planning and seeks to propose a more balanced approach to spatial planning and the needs of urban development. It also proposes to focus on awareness raising; not only on the possibility of flooding, but also what can be done if floods actually arrive. The idea is to focus on a sustainable development of the urban area of Guelmim within the context of the larger river basin, and as an example or a model/business case for possible application to other regions in the south of Morocco (a climate proof city). The proposal seeks to suggest an approach whereby Guelmim is developed as a model city in which climate change adaptation is effected through raising awareness on the risks of drought and flooding, raising awareness on the importance of spatial planning and urban development and focusing also on re-use of flood waters, possible recharge of the ground water through capture of part of the flood water and through the development of new energy options.

One Dutch initiative that can be used to work on this is the project, “The Climate Proof Cities”. This project is based within the Dutch Knowledge for Climate Research Programme (Kennis voor Klimaat). The aim of Climate Proof Cities is to build a multi- scale (from the level of buildings via neighbourhoods to city agglomerations) quantitative knowledge base on urban climate, the vulnerability of cities to climate change, and expected impacts of possible future changes in climate. The consortium (which consists of a number of Dutch research institutes, Dutch city partners and international research partners) could help generate knowledge on the technical and economic effectiveness of adaptation measures, and on the governance arrangements required to achieve adaptation in cities.

The outcome of this project can be envisaged as a city (Guelmim) in a broader context of a river basin (Souss Massa et Draa) which has adopted the following practices:

1. Integration between spatial planning and urban development through the establishment of a multi-stakeholder platform for coordination on climate change issues; 2. Awareness raising activities that focus on flooding, drought, water conservation and what to do when there is a flood forecast; 3. Development of plans to tackle the specific shortcomings in infrastructure that are currently increasing the risk of renewed flooding; 4. A model for cooperation and dialogue which can be presented as an example for other cities in the South (extrapolating to the regional level).

Recommendation: Development of the project concept in more detail through a focussed project development phase and consultations with stakeholders. It is important that the Moroccan authorities, specifically the Ministry of Water through the ABH, and the regional

and local authorities through the Ministry of Internal Affairs, develop commitment towards this concept. The Dutch government through the DRR facility would be able to provide further follow-up to this work provided a commitment is expressed through a formal communication from the Ministry of Water in which they also commit to engaging the other ministries and local authorities into a dialogue. A first step of such a follow-up could consist of the development of a detailed road-map.

Package 2: Communication The second proposal that has been discussed with the authorities in Morocco focuses on communication. It consists of four elements.

1. It has a suggestion to work with schools to develop curricula that focus on what to do in case of floods, to make children aware of the fact that there is such a thing as climate change, that there is such a thing as flooding, that there are droughts, that water is a scarce good, and that it is necessary to take the necessary precautions. An activity like this would have to take account of the Ministry of Education to be able to participate and develop curricula that can be incorporated in the national curricula. The education and information for the communities must also be improved to better prepare them for flooding situations. It is essential that everybody knows how vulnerable they are for flooding and know what to do in case of a flood situation. A good example of information that needs to be collected and shared with communities can be found on the website of the Environment Agency in the United Kingdom: “Prepare for a flood and get help during and after“ (www.gov.uk/prepare-for-a-flood). Another example of what to do before, during and after a flood can be found on the website of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (www.bom.gov.au/water/floods). 2. It also includes ideas to develop applications, or apps, for mobile phones that warn of pending floods or other disasters and tells them what to do and who to contact for further questions. This can be done in cooperation with Dutch and Moroccan App developers. 3. It also ensures that people know that floods can actually occur, since they are so extremely rare, and that there are plans for evacuation, what to do if you’re going to climb onto your roof, what to take, and what to do if water provision is cut, what to do if communications are cut, and so on. 4. The development of benchmarking tools and implementation of interactive sessions with authorities (such as workshops, field visits and study tours) to compare various approaches of communication and coordination during crises and what this means for the way this is addressed in Guelmim and other areas of the South.

The Netherlands, as a partner for this kind of an activity, is perfectly placed to develop benchmarking tools and communication tools to enable this kind of an activity. This can be done through the Netherlands Water Partnership and various other services that can be offered through the Netherlands Enterprise Agency (RVO).

Recommendation: Develop a comprehensive curriculum on climate change, flooding, droughts, water scarcity, renewable energy and pollution in cooperation with UNICEF and the Ministry of Education, to be adopted in schools.

A first step to develop the proposals above is to acquire funding for a detailed project development activity in which more data is collected and more insight is gained in the governance and institutional processes guiding the decision making on data sharing, spatial planning, investments in infrastructure and general awareness raising. One of the most promising options for this would be to develop a proposal for co-financing between

various interested parties, amongst whom primarily the Moroccan Ministère délégué auprès du Ministre de l’Energie, des Mines de l’Eau et de l’Environnement, chargé de l’Eau, the Dutch and French bilateral funding options, UNICEF and possibly the EC funded “Jumelage” funding opportunity.

As indicated above, it would be important to attain formal commitment from the Moroccan partners to enable further support from The Netherlands. This support could be organized as a first dialogue session, during which a mission from The Netherlands would help mobilize the different public and private stakeholders. The role of the mission would be to act as neutral facilitators that would not only help to convene parties, but would also facilitate the development of a road map with clear milestones and a division of tasks as to who would be responsible for what, under the auspices and overall coordination of the Moroccan partners.

4.4 Follow-up

In this section an attempt is made to group some of the elements of the proposals to facilitate possible follow-up. In the table below the proposed activities are linked to possible funding and Dutch expertise that could be involved.

Activity Possible funding Proposed Dutch expertise required Project development/multi- Moroccan Ministry of Water Policy development / stakeholder dialogue / Governance fund of dialogue facilitation French Embassy / RVO Package 1 MATRA South Policy development / dialogue facilitation / technical expertise on flood protection Package 2 UNICEF Education on water and climate change Individual measures Adopt available and cost- GiZ / SDC Floodtags / Mobile app effective flood early developers warning tools Merge existing hydro- GiZ / SDC Flood early warning meteorological gauging systems networks and add new hydrological gauges on the Oueds that contribute most to the total flow of the basin.

ANNEX A – DRR-TEAM

Dutch Risk Reduction Team: reducing the risk of water related disasters

Many countries around the world face severe water threats. Often, these countries are in urgent need of expert advice on how to prevent a disaster or how to recover from a calamity. For instance, when a country has been struck by severe floods and the first emergency relief workers have gone, the need for advice on how to build a sustainable and safer water future arises. To meet these needs with a swift response, the Dutch government has initiated the Dutch Risk Reduction Team (DRR Team). This team of experts advises governments on how to resolve urgent water issues related to flood risks, water pollution and water supply, to prevent disasters or to rebuild after water related disasters. With climate change and a fast growing world population, water issues are becoming more urgent. As a country renowned for its’ expertise on water and delta management, the Netherlands feels a responsibility to share its’ knowledge worldwide. That is just what the DRR team does; sharing expertise with governments to come up with the best possible approach/solutions for tackling urgent water issues. Because of the unique cooperation between government and sector, the best experts can be fielded quickly. The Dutch government offers a specific number of advisory missions each year.

Advice for all water issues

The Netherlands has brought its best water experts together in the Dutch Risk Reduction Team. It consists of high level advisors supported by a broad base of technical experts who can provide top quality and tailor made expertise to governments that are confronted with severe and urgent water challenges. The Dutch are experts in adapting to water in a changing world; from delta management to water technology, from urban planning to governance, public private partnerships and financial engineering.

How does the DRR team work?

Governments that have to deal with an urgent water issue are encouraged to contact the Dutch embassy in their region. The embassy will liaise quickly with the Dutch government. Interventions will only take place after a request from a central government has been received by the Dutch government, and after a recent calamity or to prevent a threatening disaster. The DRR team does not focus on emergency relief, but on sustainable solutions. If the decision to respond to the request is made, relevant Dutch experts will be rapidly fielded to the area that is under pressure. Together with the government and local experts, the situation will be assessed and analysed after which the team will come up with a set of recommendations. For example advice on technical interventions including immediate measures and long term sustainable solutions, advice on governance and advice on financing options. The DRR team enables a foreign government to take action on the basis of sound advice and expertise.

ANNEX B – TEAM MEMBERS

Ele Jan Saaf - Team leader and IWRM expert (SaafConsult)

Marc van Dijk - Flood Early Warning System expert (Deltares);

Joris Houtman - Economic Advisor Netherlands Embassy Rabat

Luca Peters - Intern UNICEF WASH program

Soufiane el Khinifri - Intern Netherlands Embassy Rabat, agriculture department

ANNEX C – TERMS OF REFERENCE

Introduction

Request

An official request for support from the DRR-Team on risk reduction flood control, specifically in the Guelmin region, was sent to the Dutch Government on the 18th of June 2015 from the Moroccan Ministry of Foreign Affairs. This official request was preceded by an earlier request dated 21st of January 2015 from the SG responsible for water from the Ministry of Energy, Mining, Water and Environment.

Further specifications are provided in the following chapters. Please see Annex A for further background information.

Background

Violent storms starting on 24 November 2014 caused widespread flooding in a large part of south Morocco, including several dry river beds. More than 120 mm of rain fell in 24 hours along in Tangier, in Sidi Ifni, along the chain of the High and Anti Atlas mountains, and in the centre and east of the country. A severe drop in temperatures with snowfall in altitudes from 1,700 meters further complicated the situation.

In total 47 people have died, 1,093 people were rescued, 1,690 people living in dangerous areas were evacuated as a precautionary measure. Thousands of adobe (mud brick) houses have been destroyed and more than 100 roads were blocked by the flood waters and approx. 1.000 bridges were damaged. Main territories affected are Guelmim, Chtouka Ait Baha, Taroudant and Smara.

1. Mission specifications

a. Scope The location of the mission is the Es Samara Region.

The scoping mission will include:

- Analyses and advice on reducing the risks of flooding in the Guelmim region with advice on an Flood Early Warning System for this region - Inventory of the possibilities of financing an Flood Early Warning System in the Guelmim region by IFI’s such as WB, EU (ENI) or African Development Bank (AfDB). - Analyses and advice on a regional/national standardization and monitoring of Flood Early Warning Systems in Morocco. - Inventory of the possibilities for financing the implementation of a regional/national standardization and monitoring of existing Flood Early Warning Systems in Morocco by IFI’s such as WB, EU (ENI) or AfDB. - Field visits in the Guelmim Region - Presentation of preliminary advice on Flood Early Warning System in the Guelmim region and preliminary advice on a regional/national standardization and monitoring of the Flood Early Warning Systems for Moroccan Government.

b. Objectives The Technical Assistance will provide the National Government of Morocco with advice on short-, medium and long-term Flood Early Warning System for the Guelmim Region and advice on a regional/national standardization and monitoring of Flood Early Warning Systems in Morocco.

The mission will;

- Analyse the flood risk aspects in the Guelmim region - Analyse and advice on the implementation of an Flood Early Warning System in the Guelmim Region - Analyses and advice on a regional/national standardization and monitoring of Flood Early Warning Systems in Morocco. - Make an inventory of the possibilities for financing the implementation of an Flood Early Warning System in the Guelmim region and the implementation of a regional/national standardization and monitoring of existing Flood Early Warning Systems in Morocco by IFI’s such as WB, EU (ENI) or AfDB. The inventory can be initiated ex ante to the mission in Morocco. - Advice and present (preliminary) results of the mission to local (Guelmim region) and national (relevant ministries) Authorities at the end of the mission. - Contribute to better relationships between Morocco and the Netherlands

2. Expected results

- A mission report, with a description of conducted activities, including findings and recommendations for follow-up activities and possible business opportunities for the Dutch water sector in the Guelmim region and on a regional/national level for Flood Early Warning Systems. - A report with recommendations for the Moroccan authorities with advice on: 1. Reducing the risks of flooding in the Guelmim region with an Flood Early Warning System 2. Standardization and monitoring on a regional and/or national level for all Early Flood warning systems in Morocco

3. Overview of possibilities for financing the implementation of an Flood Early Warning System in the Guelmim region and the implementation of a regional/national standardization and monitoring of existing Flood Early Warning Systems in Morocco by IFI’s such as WB, EU (ENI) or AfDB. 4. Overview of actual possibilities for the Dutch water to get involved in the implementation of Flood Early Warning System in the Guelmim region or the implementation of a regional/national standardization and monitoring of existing Flood Early Warning Systems in Morocco The mission report for the Dutch Government should also consist an advice on a follow up by the Dutch water sector - A presentation at the end of the mission with the preliminary results and advice of the mission for the local (Guelmim region) and National Authorities

In addition the following is asked:

- The findings and recommendations shall be presented in a reader friendly and professional manner and may include illustrations and photos; - An electronic version of the final report along with all the relevant annexes; - A summary of the study of maximum 2 pages, which can be used for publication on websites of EKN and RVO.nl/drrteam.nl; - Representative(s) of the expert team should be available to present the findings during a (sector) meeting in the Netherlands. - Incorporate a potential request from Public Works into the follow up activities (DRR phase 2) - Establish and explain expectation levels with The Moroccan Government - All reports and communication will be in English including a management summary.

3. Required expertise

It is proposed that the Moroccan mission consists of 1 Dutch team leader and 1 expert from the water sector. The mission will be accompanied where possible by Embassy staff members. The required expertise is as follows:

- Team leader, expert in Flood Early Warning Systems - Expert in hydrological modelling for Flood Early Warning Systems

4. Timing

The mission could take place in October or November 2015. The estimated duration is 7 days

Annex A: Background information

In total 47 people have died, 1,093 people were rescued, 1,690 people living in dangerous areas were evacuated as a precautionary measure. Thousands of adobe (mud brick) houses have been destroyed and more than 100 roads were locked by the flood waters and approx. 1.000 bridges were damaged. Main territories affected are Guelmim, Chtouka Ait Baha, Taroudant and Smara.

The impact of the floods is not restricted to the mountainous parts of the river but also affects the lower regions (basin). The floods seem to be related to changes in the climate that have materialized in the last decades. Periods of drought, sometimes lasting several years, are interspersed with short periods of intense precipitation.

Several studies have been conducted in other areas than the area.

- Oulrika/Marrakech. Research by Japan – Jica from 2010-2012

- Sebou/Gharb. Research by Switzerland

- Norden/Oriental. Research by Spain (AECID)

These researches have resulted in follow ups with funding for s for these particular areas. There is no for the region. For this particular region there is a request for advice on s in relation with an advice on a regional/national approach for s.

The Moroccan Government faces a number of challenges to implement the National Water Strategy. Several institutions are involved in the National Water Strategy e.g. The Ministry of Energy, Mining, Water and Environment, L'Agence du Bassin Hydraulique de Souss Massa et du Drâa, Office National de l'Electricité et de l'Eau Potable (ONEE). ONEE provides 80% of the country’s drinking water and is involved in sanitation services.

Currently there are other organisations and countries that collaborate with the Moroccan authorities on water related issues. Examples are 1) the AGIRE Programme that is

supported by Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbH (GIZ), and 2) a project for institutional and operational support for 3 Hydraulic Basin Agencies (ABH) supported by CTB from Belgium.

Annex B: DRR-Team

To meet these needs with a swift response, the Dutch government (Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Infrastructure and Environment) has initiated the Dutch Risk Reduction Team (DRR-Team). This team of experts advises governments on how to resolve urgent water issues related to flood risks, water pollution and water supply, to prevent disasters or to rebuild after water related disasters. The DRR-Team enables a foreign government to take action on the basis of sound advice and expertise. The DRR-Team is coordinated by the Netherlands Enterprise Agency (RVO.nl).

ANNEX D – MISSION PROGRAMME

Day Time (GMT+1) Program element Participants Remarks Monday 25 january 08h00 Arrival at embassy and welcome by the Ambassador All 08h30 Mission debriefing All 09h30 Meeting with ministry of Water All Attendance list 1 12h00 Meeting with development partners at Dutch residence All Attendance list 2 14h00 Team meeting Tamara All 15h00 Drive to Casablanca airport All 20h00 Flight to Agadir All Tuesday 26 january 09h30 Meeting with ABH Agadir All Attendance list 2 12h00 Lunch with ABH Agadir All 13h00 Drive to Guelmim All 14h00 Visit Yousef Ibn Tachfin dam All 18h00 Arrival hotel Guelmim All Wednesday 27 january 09h30 Meeting with local authorities in Guelmim All Attendance list 3 12h00 Lunch with ABH and some local Authorities All 13h00 Field visit Guelmim All Thursday 28 january 09h30 Flight Guelmim to Casablanca Ele Jan & Joris 10h00 Field visit Bouizakarne Marc 12h00 Visit weather station Marc 13h00 Drive to Agadir airport Marc 16h00 Meeting AFD Rabat Ele Jan & Joris Attendance list 4 17h00 Meeting French embassy Rabat Ele Jan & Joris Attendance list 5 20h00 Flight Geulmim to Casablanca Marc Friday 29 january 08h30 Meeting embassy All 09h30 Meeting Ministry of Water All 12h00 Lunch at embassy All 15h30 DRR meeting with UN agencies at UNDP All

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ANNEX E – DOCUMENTS CONSULTED

ANNEX F – SELECTION OF PICTURES

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