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Colorado Business Economic Outlook 2017 Fifty-Second Annual FIFTY-SECOND ANNUAL COLORADO BUSINESS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2017 FIFTY-SECOND ANNUAL COLORADO BUSINESS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2017 Sponsored by the University of Colorado Boulder, Leeds School of Business Additional copies may be ordered from: Business Research Division University of Colorado Boulder 420 UCB Boulder, CO 80309-0420 colorado.edu/business/brd ISBN 978-0-89478-026-4 Copyright 2016 by the Business Research Division Leeds School of Business University of Colorado Boulder Boulder, CO 80309-0420 The University of Colorado Boulder is an equal opportunity/nondiscrimination institution. Information in this book is correct at the time of printing but may be subject to change. Material contained within the accompanying tables is in the public domain and, with appropriate credit, may be reproduced without permission. Please reference, “Business Research Division, Leeds School of Business, University of Colorado Boulder.” Printed on recycled paper. The 2017 Colorado Business Economic Outlook Forum Event is sponsored in part by: Table of Contents Introduction ................................................................................................................. 2 Other Services .................................................................................................. 102 Colorado Then and Now .............................................................................................. 4 Government ..................................................................................................... 104 U.S. Economic Outlook ................................................................................................. 6 International Trade .........................................................................................109 Colorado Economic, Employment, and Population Outlook..................................... 9 Summary .........................................................................................................114 Agriculture ....................................................................................................... 19 Around the Region ..........................................................................................116 Natural Resources and Mining ....................................................................... 23 Around the State Construction ................................................................................................... 33 Boulder County ...............................................................................118 Kit Carson County ...........................................................................120 Manufacturing ................................................................................................. 37 La Plata County ...............................................................................121 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities ............................................................... 43 Mesa County ....................................................................................122 Information ..................................................................................................... 52 Northern Colorado ..........................................................................124 Financial Activities .......................................................................................... 57 Southern Colorado ..........................................................................125 Professional and Business Services ................................................................. 71 Steering Committee Members ......................................................................................128 Education and Health Services ....................................................................... 79 Estimating Groups .........................................................................................................129 Leisure and Hospitality ................................................................................... 90 Photo Credits Page 31, National Renewable Energy Laboratory < Page 45, Denver International Airport < Page 48, Regional Transportation District < Page 93, VISIT DENVER < Page 95, Colorado Parks and Wildlife/ Tye’s Eye Photography < Page 96, Colorado Parks and Wildlife/Jerry Neal < Page 97, Chasing Epic Mountain Bike Adventures < Page 100, Colorado Parks and Wildlife/Ken Papaleo < Page 101, VISIT DENVER < Page 124, Taylor Franta 2017 Colorado Business Economic Outlook Introduction he Business Research Divi- Methodology Tsion (BRD) in the Leeds We are fortunate to have more than 100 individuals from School of Business is proud the business, education, and government communi- to present our 52nd annual ties who serve on 13 sector estimating groups. These Colorado Business Economic groups convene at a kickoff meeting in September where Outlook. This 2017 consensus members discuss trends and issues that are likely to affect forecast is a product of part- economic growth during the upcoming year. During the nerships that rely on research second half of September and into October, the commit- conducted by our students and tees apply this information to their industry. From this staff, and members of the public series of meetings, the sector write-ups and forecasts are and private sectors in service prepared and submitted to the BRD in early November, and outreach to the state of when they are edited and published in this book. The Colorado. following June, the Steering Committee, which is made This forecast analyzes changes that have occurred in all up of the sector chairs, meets to review their forecasts economic sectors during the past year, and looks at the and identify factors that will positively or negatively drive opportunities and challenges that will shape population, change in their industry’s economic performance during employment, and the overall economy in the coming the second half of the year. These updates are published year. The information in this book is initially presented in the summer issue of our quarterly newsletter, the at the fifty-second annual Colorado Business Economic Colorado Business Review. Outlook Forum in Denver, followed by approximately 50 forecast speeches that are held throughout the state Related Economic Research during the year, ranging from presentations to industry The BRD conducts customized business and economic associations and nonprofit organizations to the Federal research that expands the knowledge base of decision Reserve Bank of Kansas City. makers throughout the state and region. The annual Colorado Business Economic Outlook provides the foundation for all research the BRD conducts within the state. Among the other BRD research tools available to businesses and organizations is the Leeds Business 2 2017 Colorado Business Economic Outlook Confidence Index, a forward-looking index that gauges The assistance provided by Leeds School staff, including Colorado business leaders’ opinions about national Laurel Page, Events Coordinator; Zeel Patel, Director of and state economic trends and how their industry will Marketing and Communications; Erik Jeffries, Director perform in the coming quarter, and the Colorado Business of Creative Services; Nicole Waldrip, Graphic Designer; Review, which explores current topics of importance to Trisha McKean, Assistant Dean for Advancement; the state’s economy. Visit www.colorado.edu/business/ Kathryn Marshall, Executive Director for Corporate and brd for more information about BRD offerings. External Relations; Margaret Arreola, Assistant Director of Development; and Anna Linn, Corporate and Board Acknowledgments Relations Program Coordinator, is greatly appreciated. We are humbled and thankful to have dedicated partners I am also appreciative of the help provided by Elizabeth in producing this forecast. A complete list of committee Lock and Dirk Martin with the CU Boulder Office of members appears at the back of this book. Their efforts News Services. are very much appreciated. We also thank the staff of the Colorado Department of Local Affairs and the Colorado Colorado Economic Forecast for 2017 Department of Labor and Employment who supply us The sections that follow provide a summary of 2016, a with much of the employment and population data used forecast for 2017, and industry-specific data analysis and in the forecast. insight into the key factors influencing each sector. We Finally, I would like to thank the many Leeds School of believe this information will prove useful in your busi- Business and CU Boulder personnel who worked hard ness and policy decision-making process. at preparing, presenting, and promoting this project. My sincerest thanks go to Brian Lewandowski, Associate Director; Cindy DiPersio, Project Coordinator; Kristin Weber, Graphic Designer; Denise Munn, Senior Man- ager of Print Production and Account Management; Richard L. Wobbekind, PhD and John Griswold, Michael Hansen, William Maguire, Senior Associate Dean for Academic Programs Lucas Oliveira, and Jackson Rueter, Student Research Executive Director, Business Research Division Assistants, for their help in assembling and presenting Leeds School of Business the 2017 Colorado Business Economic Outlook Forum. www.colorado.edu/business/brd 3 2017 Colorado Business Economic Outlook Colorado Then and Now ver the past 45 years in Colorado, employment, Olabor force composition, and the economy have changed significantly. In 1970, just over one million individuals were employed in Colorado and the average
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