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FORTY-NINTH ANNUAL COLORADO BUSINESS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2014 FORTY-NINTH ANNUAL COLORADO BUSINESS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2014 Sponsored by the University of Colorado Boulder, Leeds School of Business Additional copies may be ordered from: Business Research Division University of Colorado Boulder 420 UCB Boulder, CO 80309-0420 leeds.colorado.edu/brd ISBN 0-89478-022-0 Copyright 2013 by the Business Research Division Leeds School of Business University of Colorado Boulder Boulder, CO 80309-0420 Information in this book is correct at the time of printing but may be subject to change. Material contained within the accompanying tables is in the public domain and, with appropriate credit, may be reproduced without permission. Please reference, “Business Research Division, Leeds School of Business, University of Colorado Boulder.” Printed on recycled paper. (FSC mark here.) Table of Contents Introduction .................................................................................................... 2 Other Services .................................................................................... 106 Colorado Then and Now ............................................................................... 4 Government ....................................................................................... 107 U.S. Economic Outlook .................................................................................. 6 International Trade ............................................................................112 Colorado Economic, Employment, and Population Outlook ..................... 9 Summary ............................................................................................122 Agriculture ......................................................................................... 16 Around the Region ............................................................................124 Natural Resources and Mining ......................................................... 21 From Around the State: Construction ...................................................................................... 31 Boulder County ...................................................................126 Kit Carson County ...............................................................129 Manufacturing ................................................................................... 36 La Plata County ...................................................................130 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities ................................................. 44 Mesa County ........................................................................132 Information ........................................................................................ 52 Northern Colorado ..............................................................134 Financial Activities ............................................................................. 58 Pueblo County ..................................................................... 136 Southern Colorado ..............................................................138 Professional and Business Services ................................................... 74 Steering Committee Members .......................................................................141 Education and Health Services ......................................................... 81 Estimating Groups ..........................................................................................142 Leisure and Hospitality ..................................................................... 93 Photo Credits Page 8, Cheryl Jacobson 2012 AgInsights Photo Contest < Page 19, Laurie Purcell 2012 AgInsights Photo Contest < Page 40, Ska Brewing < Pages 48, 65, VISIT DENVER, The Convention & Visitors Bureau < Page 129, Pink Cadillac at the I-70 Diner, Flagler, Colorado courtesy of Grainne Rhuad © 2012 < Page 130, Fort Lewis College < Page 135, Mike Campbell < Page 139, Courtesy of Kathleen (Kathy) MacLeod Abbott < Other photos, University of Colorado 2014 Colorado Business Economic Outlook Introduction he Business Research in September where members discuss trends and TDivision (BRD) in the issues that are likely to affect economic growth Leeds School of Business is during the upcoming year. During the second half proud to present our 49th of September and into October, the committees annual Colorado Business apply this information to their industry. From Economic Outlook. The this series of meetings, the sector write-ups and 2014 Colorado outlook is a forecasts are prepared and submitted to the BRD product of partnerships that in November, when they are edited and published rely on research conducted in this book. The following June, the Steering by our students and staff, and Committee, which is comprised of the sector members of the public and private sectors. chairs, meets to review their forecasts and iden- tify factors that will positively or negatively drive This forecast analyzes changes that have occurred change in their industry’s economic performance in all economic sectors during the past year, and during the second half of the year. These updates looks at the opportunities and challenges that will are published in the summer issue of our quarterly shape population, employment, and the overall e-newsletter, the Colorado Business Review. economy in the coming year. The information in this book is initially presented at the forty-ninth Related Economic Research annual Colorado Business Economic Outlook The BRD conducts customized business and Forum in Denver, followed by roughly 50 forecast economic research that expands the knowledge speeches that are held throughout the state during base of decision makers throughout the state and the year, ranging from presentations to industry region. The annual Colorado Business Economic associations and nonprofit organizations to the Outlook provides the foundation for all research Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. the BRD conducts within the state. Among the Methodology other BRD research tools available to businesses and organizations is the Leeds Business Confi- We are fortunate to have more than 100 individu- dence Index, a forward-looking index that gauges als from the business, education, and government Colorado business leaders’ opinions about national communities who serve on 13 sector estimating and state economic trends and how their industry groups. These groups convene at a kickoff meeting will perform in the coming quarter, and the 2 2014 Colorado Business Economic Outlook Colorado Business Review, which explores cur- and Communications, and Erik Jeffries, produc- rent topics of importance to the state’s economy. tion/project manager, both in the Leeds School, Visit leeds.colorado.edu/brd for more information is greatly appreciated, along with the assistance about BRD offerings. provided by Elizabeth Lock and Dirk Martin with the CU-Boulder Office of News Services. Acknowledgments We are humbled and thankful to have dedicated Colorado Economic Forecast for 2014 Celebrating More Than 95 partners in producing this forecast. A complete list The sections that follow provide a summary of Years of Service to Colorado of committee members appears at the back of this 2013, a forecast for 2014, and industry-specific BRD: Business Research Division book. Their efforts are very much appreciated. We data analysis and insight into the key factors influ- The Business Research Division conducts economic impact also thank the staff of the Colorado Department encing each sector. We believe this information will studies and customized research projects that assist of Local Affairs and the Colorado Department of prove useful in your business and policy decision- companies, associations, nonprofits, and government agencies with making sound business and policy decisions. Labor and Employment who supply us with much making process. Among the tools offered are the annual Colorado Business of the employment and population data used in Economic Outlook, which provides a forecast of the state’s the forecast. economy by sector, and the quarterly Leeds Business Confidence Index, which gauges Colorado business leaders’ Finally, I would like to thank the many Leeds opinions about the economy. The quarterly Colorado School of Business and CU-Boulder personnel Richard L. Wobbekind, PhD Business Review e-newsletter offers decision makers in- depth analysis and information about Colorado’s economy. who worked hard at preparing, presenting, and Senior Associate Dean for Academic promoting this project. My sincerest thanks go to Programs CONTACT US Brian Lewandowski, Research Associate; Cindy Executive Director, Business Research Dr. Richard Wobbekind, Executive Director DiPersio, Project Coordinator; Bonnie Beverly, Division [email protected] 303-492-1147 Administrative Assistant; Lynn Reed, Graphic Leeds School of Business Brian Lewandowski, Research Associate Designer; Kim Warner, Publications Project Man- leeds.colorado.edu/brd [email protected] ager; and Rick Brubaker, Jim Dalton, Sam McMe- 303-492-3307 ley, Noah Seidenfeld, Ryan Thorpe, and Emily [email protected] | leeds.colorado.edu/brd Zalasky, Student Research Assistants, for their help in assembling and presenting the 2014 Colorado Business Economic Outlook Forum. The assistance provided by Rex Whisman, director of Marketing 3 2013 Leeds BEOF Book Ads R2.indd 1 11/19/13 10:56 AM 2014 Colorado Business Economic Outlook Colorado Then and Now he nation’s