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Hydropower Vulnerability and

A Framework for Modeling the Future of Global Hydroelectric

Ben Blackshear ∙ Tom Crocker ∙ Emma Drucker ∙ John Filoon ∙ Jak Knelman ∙ Michaela Skiles

Middlebury College Environmental Studies Senior Seminar

Fall 2011

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT ...... iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...... v 1. INTRODUCTION ...... 1 Study Objectives and Methodology ...... 3 2. TYPOLOGY OF HYDROPOWER SCHEMES ...... 6 Pumped storage ...... 7 ...... 8 Run-of- ...... 9 3. CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS PERTINENT TO HYDROPOWER ...... 11 Change in precipitation ...... 12 Change in temperature ...... 13 Change in specific humidity ...... 14 Change in stream flow ...... 15 Glaciation ...... 16 4. ILLUSTRATED FRAMEWORK OF CLIMATE CHANGE AS IT AFFECTS HYDROPOWER PRODUCTION...... 18 Definitions of variables included in our illustrated framework ...... 21 Evaporation ...... 21 Discharge ...... 21 Temporal variability ...... 21 Flooding ...... 22 Droughts ...... 22 Seasonal offset ...... 23 Glacial melt ...... 23 5. REGIONAL FINDINGS ...... 24 ...... 25 ...... 32

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South America ...... 39 ...... 46 ...... 51 ...... 57 ...... 63 6. CONCLUSIONS ...... 69 REFERENCES ...... 71

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ABSTRACT

The main purpose of this study is to assess how climate change will impact global hydroelectric production. This assessment was carried out through an extensive literature review that investigated current trends in hydropower as well climate change effects predicted to influence hydroelectric production. The summarized results of this literature review are provided by in this report. Our research indicated that climate change effects, especially alterations in evaporation, river discharge, temporal precipitation patterns, frequency of extreme meteorological events, and glacial melt rate, have the potential to induce appreciable change, both positive and negative, in hydroelectric production in every part of the world. We also found that the type and characteristics of a given hydropower facility play an important role in determining its vulnerability to these impacts. In this report, the comparative resiliencies of reservoir, run-of-river, and pumped storage facilities to the aforementioned important climate change effects are considered and represented in a framework. Decision-makers involved with hydropower development can use our framework in conjunction with the provided global climate change maps to acquire a basic understanding of how climate change will affect current or future hydropower infrastructure in all areas of the globe. We hope that these resources will allow decision-makers around the world to efficiently assess hydropower vulnerability caused by climate change impacts.

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Our group would like to thank Matt Landis, our community partner, for his professional guidance of our project. He helped us hone our project’s focus and provided us with fundamental assistance throughout the course of the semester.

We would also like to thank our professors, Cat Ashcraft and Diane Munroe, for providing a great deal of constructive feedback on our report. The comments and suggestions that they offered throughout the semester have allowed our ideas to develop into a valuable project.

Thanks to our classmates in ES401 for all the good times we have been able to share. You guys are lots of fun.

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1. INTRODUCTION

Between 2007 and 2035, worldwide consumption is projected to double.1 Scientists predict that the global population will swell to over 10 billion by 2050.2 Our current population is already taxing current energy and resources. These demands will grow with the global population. Developing countries’ water withdrawals are likely to increase 50 percent by 2025, while the withdrawal rates in developed countries are projected to increase roughly 18 percent.3 The next forty years promise to challenge energy and water management. Hydropower is one response to these challenges; in many areas of the world provide energy and regulate water supply. However, climate change will alter global hydropower production. Climate change impacts have the potential to make hydropower either more or less vulnerable. In areas where hydropower generation will decrease due to climate change impacts, entire nations may find themselves without a reliable source of .

Each region of the globe will face unique challenges as our climate changes. , droughts, rapid glacial melt, increasing temperatures, and variability in the timing, location and amount of precipitation, are all symptoms of climate change that will affect hydroelectric generation by increasing and hydropower potential in some and diminishing them in others. Though all nations are susceptible to the effects of global climate change, developing countries are inherently more vulnerable to the effects of climate change disruptions because they have fewer disposable resources to spend on unexpected extreme weather events and on adapting to long-term alterations.

Changes in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns have profound effects on river systems. These impacts directly affect hydroelectric production. Rapidly melting in the Rocky , the , and the Himalaya change the already variable hydrographs of the they feed. Severe storms caused by warming temperatures have the capacity to threaten hydropower infrastructure and entire regions. Hydropower is dependent on river discharge to create electricity. Generally, the lower the river discharge, the less electricity a hydropower facility can generate. Differing scales and types of hydropower are more vulnerable to climate change phenomena. Our study considers how projected climate change impacts will affect hydropower vulnerability across the globe.

1 International Water Management Institute. (2011). Climate Change & Water. Retrieved from http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/Topics/Climate_Change/default.aspx. 2 Nexus of Water and Energy. (2011). Facts & figures. Retrieved from http://www.nexuswaterenergy.com/key- facts/facts-figures. 3 Ibid.

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Though hydropower is widely considered to be a and a low emissions alternative to fossil , it comes with its own set of environmental impacts. Many of these impacts will likely intensify as the effects of climate change become more severe. Hydropower already constitutes a significant proportion of many countries’ energy portfolios. Some countries, such as , have already made massive investments in hydropower in their own country as well as abroad. Certain regions are dominated by large-scale hydropower while others are powered through smaller scale hydropower projects. Due to the global scope of this study, we focus on larger projects. Future plans for hydroelectric generation vary greatly from region to region, as do the effects of climate change. Across North America, concerned environmentalists are working to decommission large dams, while areas in Asia, , Africa, and the Middle East are in the process of building large dams.

Case Study: The River

In this report, we illustrate how our framework applies to specific situations by describing the impacts of climate change on hydropower generation in the Mekong River Basin. The Mekong River is located in and originates in the Himalayan Mountains. It provides an interesting case study for many reasons. First, this area of the globe is predicted to see massive climate change effects.4 Second, there are already numerous hydropower facilities along the Mekong River as well as along its tributaries. In fact, over 130 hydropower projects are either planned or operating along this river.5 Finally, the Mekong River flows through China, , Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and —all of which are rapidly developing countries with increasing energy, , and water demands. Thus, the implications of climate change on hydropower are especially significant to the residents of the Mekong River Basin.

Mekong River Delta. Credit: WWF

4 Izrael, Y. (2007). The fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change: Working group II contribution. Russian and , 32(9), 551. 5 Lee, Yoolim. (26 Oct. 2010). China Hydropower Dams in Mekong River Give Shocks to 60 Million. Bloomberg. Retrieved from http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-26/china-hydropower-dams-in-mekong-river-give- shocks-to-60-million.html.

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Study Objectives and Methodology Through extensive research, interpretation, and geographic visualization, we assess how climate change will affect hydroelectric production across the globe. We created this report in collaboration with ISciences, a company that uses scientific and statistical datasets as well as image interpretation to inform sustainable development. This is intended to assist ISciences and decision-makers in assessing the present state of hydropower, and the vulnerability of hydroelectric generation to climate change. We accomplished this by investigating the role of hydropower in regional and national energy portfolios, synthesizing case studies into a framework which plots characteristics alongside climate change impacts, and researching the spatial distribution of dam types and projected climate change impacts. The information and tools presented here will help visualize current hydropower dependence, understand the complex relationship between hydroelectric generation and climate change, and identify especially vulnerable sites for further investigation.

For the purpose of this study, vulnerability refers to a hydropower generating facility’s potential to have its electrical generation altered by climate change. Hydropower production or hydroelectric generation will be discussed as installed capacity, output wattage, and . Climate change impacts range from changing precipitation patterns to glacial melting and increased occurrence of extreme weather events. This report focuses on impacts related to changes in temperature and precipitation. Hydroelectric dependency refers to the percent of total installed capacity dedicated to hydropower. This is the percentage of a country’s energy portfolio that is made up of hydropower. When we discuss effects on human livelihood, we are referring to the impact of variations in hydroelectric production on communities and economies. We recognize that both climate change and hydroelectric facilities have significant impacts on human livelihoods irrespective of each other, many of which are far more drastic than variable electricity availability. However, the scope of this report limits our discussion to those impacts manifested as altered electricity availability from hydropower due to climate change.

We began with a thorough review of the literature and available datasets to identify the current global trends in hydropower and the climate change effects in each area of the globe that are most critical to hydropower generation.

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Figure 1: The Global Water System Project’s Global and Dams Database (GRanD). Data: Global Water Systems Project, 2011.

This project utilized the Global Water System Project’s Global Reservoirs and Dams Database (GRanD).6 To our knowledge, this is the most comprehensive global database of dams and reservoirs; it was last updated in March 2011. It is important to note that not all dams in the database are used for hydroelectric generation. While some are specifically denoted as serving this function, many dams in the database are not classified by function. Thus this study used a subset of the GRanD database, including all dams except those specifically denoted as serving a function other than hydroelectric generation. The database contains many useful fields including information regarding reservoir geometry, reservoir storage capacity, and average discharge rates at the point of each dam. Unfortunately, most dams in the GRanD database are not classified by dam type. To our knowledge, the most comprehensive lists of dams by type are those found on Wikipedia.7 To supplement the few cases in the GRanD database where dam type is specified, tables listing prominent run-of-river and pumped storage dams were extracted from Wikipedia and mapped in ARC GIS (Figures 5 and 9). While this information is somewhat helpful, it illustrates the need for a more complete and detailed global dam database which includes dam typology. Such a dataset would allow more definitive analysis of climate change

6 Lehner, B., R-Liermann, C., Revenga, C., Vörösmarty, C., Fekete, B., Crouzet, P., Döll, P. et al.: High resolution mapping of the world’s reservoirs and dams for sustainable river flow management. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. Source: GWSP Digital Water Atlas (2011). Map 81: GRanD Database (V1.1). Available online at http://atlas.gwsp.org. 7 List of pumped-storage hydroelectric stations. Wikipedia. Retrieved from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pumped-storage_hydroelectric_power_stations; List of run-of-the-river hydroelectric power stations. Wikipedia. Retrieved from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_run-of-the- river_hydroelectric_power_stations. Note: the sources these lists reference can be found at the aforementioned urls.

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impacts to hydropower by allowing dam types to be spatially compared with climate change impacts. We did not conduct such analysis due to our lack of confidence in the dam type data.

Hydroelectric dependency data for the year 2008 (published in 2011) at the country level were obtained from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).8 These data provide a summary of the total installed energy capacity for most countries broken down into generation categories, including traditional hydroelectric and pumped storage. These data were joined to a country shapefile in Arc GIS to create the choropleth maps (Figures 2, 17, 21, 24-28) in this report. We chose to use the most current country boundaries even though these do not match the energy portfolio data. After consulting the GRanD database, we noticed that all of the countries with no data in the EIA report have no dams, and thus their installed capacity is most likely zero. However, due to possible inaccuracies in each dataset, these were left classified as no data.

Figure 2: Hydropower Dependency. Percent of total installed energy capacity dedicated to hydropower. Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2008.

8 U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2011c). International energy statistics. Retrieved from http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm.

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2. TYPOLOGY OF HYDROPOWER SCHEMES

To determine the impacts of climate change on hydropower facilities with differing structural characteristics, we developed a typology of dams. We classified hydropower schemes by type: pumped storage, reservoir, and run-of-river (Figure 3).9 Of these, pumped storage and reservoir hydropower may be evaluated in terms of the storage capacity and surface area to ratio (SA:Vol) of their reservoirs. Electrical demand varies—peak hours refer to times of the highest electrical demand, which vary by time of day and season, while non-peak refers to times of relatively low electrical demand.10

Figure 3: Types and characteristics of hydropower schemes. Reservoir surface area to volume ratio (SA:Vol) and reservoir size are only applicable to reservoir and pumped storage schemes. For the purpose of this report, the categories of ‘high,’ ‘low,’ ‘large,’ and ‘small’ are relative, not definite terms.

9 Egre, D., & Milewski, J. C. (2002). The diversity of hydropower projects. , 30(14), 1225-1230. 10 Ibid.

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Pumped storage Pumped storage hydropower stores power as . This power often comes from other sources with relatively inflexible generation schedules, such as wind and nuclear.11 Typically, electricity from these other sources is used to pump water up to a higher reservoir during off-peak hours (Figure 4). Then, during peak hours, the water is released to the lower reservoir to generate electricity. For the purpose of Figure 4: Pumped storage hydropower. From this report, we are only concerned Edenhofer et al. 2011. with pure pumped storage, in which 12 the reservoirs are not connected to a river network. Pumped storage is most commonly found in North America, Europe, and Asia (Figure 5).

Figure 5: Location of pumped storage facilities around the world. Data from Wikipedia,“List of pumped-storage hydroelectric power stations.”

11 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2011: Summary for Policymakers. In IPCC Special Report on Sources and Climate Change Mitigation [O. Edenhofer, R. Pichs‐Madruga, Y. Sokona, K. Seyboth, P. Matschoss, S. Kadner, T. Zwickel, P. Eickemeier, G. Hansen, S. Schlömer, C. von Stechow (eds)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. 12 Egre & Milewski. (2002). Ibid.

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Reservoir Most commonly, hydropower dams partially block the water flow of a river and flood an area upstream of the dam to create a reservoir (Figure 6).13 With the capacity to store water, and therein potential energy, reservoir dams are better able to withstand fluctuations in river flow. Larger reservoirs can buffer greater fluctuations in flow over a longer time period to provide both base and peak power generation, while smaller reservoirs typically provide only base power Figure 6: Reservoir hydropower. From generation because of the impacts of variable Edenhofer et al. 2011. discharge rates. Reservoir dams are found worldwide (Figure 7).

Figure 7: Location of reservoir hydropower facilities around the world. Data from GRaND.

13 Egre & Milewski. (2002). Ibid.

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Run-of-river Run-of-river dams utilize some or all of a river’s flow to produce electricity without impounding any significant amount of water upstream (Figure 8). As a result, run-of-river facilities have no storage capacity to buffer fluctuations in water flow.14 These facilities provide only base power generation, lacking the ability to store water for periods of peak demand.15 Run-of-river hydropower is found most commonly in North America, Europe, and Asia (Figure 9). Figure 8: Run-of-river hydropower. From Edenhofer et al. 2011.

Figure 9: Location of run-of-river dams around the world. Data from Wikipedia, “List of run-of- the-river hydroelectric power stations.”

14 Egre & Milewski. (2002). Ibid. 15 However, an upstream reservoir dam may act as storage for downstream run-of-river dams, restricting the flow during off-peak periods and releasing more water during periods of peak electricity demand.

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Dam Types on the Mekong River The majority of the dams along the Mekong River are large scale reservoir dams, many of them within the Upper Mekong Basin in China. The upstream control of river flow levels caused by these dams creates tension between China and the downstream nations of Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam, all of which also rely on the Mekong River for power, agriculture, and general water supply.16 Currently, Cambodia and Laos plan to build a series of hydroelectric dams on the mainstream section that would “transform 55 percent of the downstream river into a reservoir, making it into a series of impoundments with slow water movement.”17 In Yunnan Province, China is already installing a series of 8 reservoir dams, called the Mekong Cascade. This series of dams has the potential to generate over 15,500 megawatts of electricity.18 The Mekong Cascade has enormous implications for downstream hydrology and has “the potential to exacerbate or ease both floods and droughts,”19 which are likely to increase in this region in the coming years due to climate change.20 Because of their storage capacity, reservoir dams can generate electricity somewhat independently of river discharge. The reservoir dams Hydroelectric dam along the Mekong River on the border of Cambodia which control the flow and Vietnam. Credit: . patterns of the Mekong River have significantly impacted the downstream hydrology, threatening and rice paddies.21 This example demonstrates some of the negative impacts associated with large scale reservoir dams.

16 Lee, Yoolim. (2010). Ibid. 17 Ibid. 18 Richardson, Michael. (30 Sept. 2009). “River of Discord” The Third Pole. Retrieved from http://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/3268-River-of-discord. 19 Hirsch, Philip. (8 Feb 2011). “Cascade Effect” The Third Pole. Retrieved from http://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/4093-Cascade-effect. 20 Izrael, Y. (2007). Ibid. 21Ives, M. (2011). Dam bad: Laos' plans to dam the Mekong could open the floodgates to further dams on the river. Island Journal, 26(3), 40.

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3. CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS PERTINENT TO HYDROPOWER

The flow chart below (Figure 10) should be used in conjunction with following maps (Figures 11 to 15) to identify the types of climate change effects predicted in different parts of the world. The flow chart is designed to show the complex ways in which the two most important climate change effects, changes in precipitation and temperature, will impact hydropower.22 The maps show specific predicted climate change effects: global changes in precipitation, temperature, specific humidity, and runoff, as well as current glaciated watersheds of the world. The final boxes on the flow chart are the changes in river discharge, which is what broadly determines how much electricity a given hydropower facility can generate.

Figure 10: Flow chart of climate change effects. Red indicates effects that are typically detrimental to hydroelectric production, and blue indicates effects that typically improve hydroelectric production potential.

22 Izrael, Y. (2007). Ibid.

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Change in precipitation

Figure 11: Predicted global change in mean annual precipitation, 2011-2030. Precipitation flux anomaly (kg·m-2·s-1). Data: IPCC DDC, NCAR CCSM3 based on SRA2 scenario.

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Change in temperature

Figure 12: Predicted global change in mean annual air temperature, 2011-2030. Air temperature anomaly in degrees Kelvin. Data: IPCC DDC, NCAR CCSM3 based on SRA2 scenario.

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Change in specific humidity

Figure 13: Predicted global change in specific humidity, 2011-2030. Specific Humidity Anomaly (ratio). Data: IPCC DDC, CCSR/NIES/FRCGC MIROC3.2 based on SRA2 scenario.

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Change in stream flow

Figure 14: Predicted global change in annual runoff, 2090-2099. Water availability in percent, relative to 1980-1999. These predictions may not necessarily reflect changes over a shorter timescale. Map adapted from IPCC DDC.

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Glaciation

Figure 15: Glaciated watersheds of the world. This map uses components of the USGS HYDRO1k Pfafstetter watershed delineation system to represent the drainages of the world that contain glaciers. Dams located within those glaciated drainages are also shown. Data: GRanD Dam Database 2011, USGS HYDRO1k 2011.

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Climate Change in the Mekong River Basin Scientists predict that South Asia will see an increase in precipitation as well as a slight increase in temperature as a result of climate change. (Figures 11 and 12). The slight increase in temperature paired with an increase in precipitation suggests that the evaporation rates of the region will decrease slightly (Figure 13). The overall increase in precipitation will provide more water to the rivers, increasing the potential for hydropower generation (Figure 14). The increasing temperature in the will increase the glacial melt that feeds the Mekong River, increasing discharge for at least the next several decades. However, once these glaciers have melted, there will be a decline in Mekong River discharge, shown in Figure 10. South Asia’s climate and hydrological cycles are significantly impacted by the , which has already been altered by climate change.23 The monsoon delivers around 75 percent of the regions precipitation during roughly three months.24 The beginning of the monsoon is predicted to arrive later in the year, making the dry season longer and increasing the number of

A Cambodian woman swims her cows to dry ground during the droughts.25 Similarly, there worst flooding on the Mekong River in at least 100 years during the will be an increase in the summer of 2008. severity of rainfall events as 26 well as storms, causing overall increased temporal variability in water supply. The disparate distribution of precipitation timing in this area causes significant variations in the Mekong River’s discharge. All of these various climate change impacts are interconnected and have significant repercussions for hydropower. As climate change impacts intensify, this variation will be exacerbated, making it more difficult for hydropower facilities along the Mekong River to predict river discharge and to generate an even supply of power.

23 Weakened monsoon season predicted for South Asia, due to rising temperatures. (27 Feb. 2009). Science Daily. Retrieved from http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/02/090227112307.htm. 24 Ibid. 25 Ibid. 26 McNally, A. (2009). Hydropower and sustainability: Resilience and vulnerability in China's powersheds. Journal of Environmental Management, 90, S286-S293.

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4. ILLUSTRATED FRAMEWORK OF CLIMATE CHANGE AS IT AFFECTS HYDROPOWER PRODUCTION

To understand how climate change will affect hydropower production, it is necessary to consider the ways in which characteristics of hydropower facilities affect their vulnerability to climate change. To explain these interactions, we created an illustrated framework that shows relative changes in generation capacity due to climate change. Climate change effects are located along the x-axis and the type and characteristics of hydropower schemes along the y-axis (Figure 16).

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Figure 16: Framework of climate change effects on different characteristics of hydropower schemes. Climate change impacts, as outlined in Chapter 3, are shown along the x-axis, and hydropower characteristics, as outlined in Chapter 2, are shown down the y-axis. Discharge, temporal variability, and glacial melt do not apply to pure pumped storage, which is not connected to a river network. Only evaporation is applicable to reservoir surface area to volume ratio (SA:Vol).

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Applying our Illustrated Framework to the Mekong River When creating our illustrated framework (Figure 16), we consider the climate change impacts which most significantly impact hydropower generation in relation to different dam characteristics. On the Mekong River, we can see how different hydropower facilities in this area are expected to be affected by the climate change impacts projected for this region. As mentioned previously, most hydropower facilities along the Mekong River are large-scale reservoir dams. By locating this facility type on the y-axis of the diagram, you can assess how this type of hydropower facility will be affected by the climate change impacts illustrated by our maps and described in Chapter 3. If a government or other party was interested in developing a hydropower facility along the Mekong River, as many are, they could also use this diagram to predict what type of dam would be least vulnerable to certain regional climate change impacts. Reading this illustrated framework, we can predict that hydropower on the Mekong River will most likely not suffer a significant decrease in generation capacity due to climate change impacts in the short term.

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Definitions of variables included in our illustrated framework The following sections explain in detail how each of the climate change effects covered in our framework—evaporation, discharge, temporal variability, and glacial melt—will impact the vulnerability of certain hydropower facilities and reservoir characteristics.

Evaporation Increased evaporation will reduce electricity generation for all types of dams, but these effects will be most drastic for those with reservoirs. Due to the direct relationship between the surface area of a body of water and its rate of evaporation, the geometry of reservoirs determines how susceptible they are to evaporation.27 Reservoirs with higher surface area to volume ratios are more vulnerable to losing capacity from evaporation, which reduces a facility’s power production capacity.28 Retrofitting reservoirs to make them deeper with a smaller surface area would reduce evaporation, however it is very expensive.29 Planned projects should take reservoir shape into consideration in their design in order to reduce evaporation and maximize power potential. Reservoir size is important to evaporation as well, as smaller reservoirs will be more at risk to losing greater proportions of their volume, as reflected in our illustrated framework.

Discharge Though an increase in amount of annual river discharge can sometimes simply translate to an increase in hydropower production, fluctuations in discharge affect different types of facilities differently. Run-of-river dams, for example, may be more vulnerable to decreased amounts of discharge because they are directly dependent on the river’s flow, whereas reservoir dams may be able to compensate better for decreased amounts of water by adapting the management plan for the reservoir volume. In our diagram, discharge refers to the annual discharge, which can be directly correlated to changes in precipitation. It does not address other issues such as temporal variability, which we account for in another section.

Temporal variability Climate change will cause increased temporal variability of precipitation events. This will pose significant problems for hydroelectric generation. These impacts will result in more severe and frequent floods and droughts. Seasonal offsets, or the altering timing and

27 D.L. McJannet, I.T. Webster, M.P. Stenson, B.S. Sherman. (2008). Estimating open water evaporation for the Murray-Darling Basin. Retrieved from http://www.clw.csiro.au/publications/waterforahealthycountry/mdbsy/technical/U-OpenWaterEvaporation.pdf. 28 Izrael, Y. (2007). Ibid. 29 McJannet et al. (2008).Ibid.

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magnitude of precipitation for traditional rainy and dry seasons and peak snowmelt, will occur as well.30 By delivering water supply at varied and unpredictable times, temporal variability negatively impacts hydroelectric production. However, it impacts reservoir dams less than run-of-river facilities because reservoir dams have the capacity to store water, thereby accounting for these variations in reservoir volume.

Flooding Dams can control the flood pulse of a river and help buffer downstream areas from dangerous impacts.31 Flooding has the potential to increase river flows and hydropower generation as long as the excess river flow level remains within the dam’s reservoir capacity. However, in extreme cases, floods can also prove destructive to dams. The large sediment and debris loads carried by floodwaters can block dam spillways and powerful of water can damage important structural components.32 The extent to which flooding is beneficial or detrimental depends heavily of the size of the dam’s reservoir.

Droughts Droughts may present the most obvious threat to hydroelectric generation, as they reduce the amount of water available to produce electricity. Many regions have experienced droughts in the last several decades that greatly reduced energy production, reducing up to half of their electrical production capacity in some cases.33 A 2009 study in the western , which modeled the impact of drought scenarios on electricity generation, found that hydroelectric generation would be reduced by 30 percent.34 Droughts in areas exclusively dependent hydropower for electricity generation would face blackouts in some drought senarios.35

30 Izrael, Y. (2007). Ibid. 31 Hauenstein, W. (2005). Hydropower and Climate Change - A Reciprocal Relation: Institutional Energy Issues in . Research and Development, 25, 321-325. 32 Ibid. 33 Sailor D.J., Muñoz J.R. (1997). Sensitivity of electricity and consumption to climate in the USA— methodology and results for eight states. Energy 22:987–998; Mukheibir, P. (2007). Possible climate change impacts on large schemes in . Journal of Energy in Southern Africa, 18(1), 4. ; Waylen, P. (2008). Changing rainfall inputs in the Volta basin: Implications for water sharing in . GeoJournal, 71(4), 201-210. 34 National Laboratory. (2009). An Analysis of the Effects of Drought Conditions on Generation in the . Retrieved from http://www.netl.doe.gov. 35 Ibid.

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Seasonal offset The seasonality of precipitation causes variability in hydroelectric generation. Regions with distinct seasonal cycles and snowmelt seasons typically experience fluctuations in generation due to precipitation’s influence on flow. Munoz and Sailor note that “Under global warming, the existent difference between the generation in fall-winter and spring-summer will increase.”36 Thus power production will indeed increase relative to current rates during part of the year; however, this will be counteracted by sharp decreases in other months. The magnitude of climate change induced precipitation shifts will vary greatly by season. In some cases precipitation is projected to be reduced twice as much in one season while in other regions, wet seasons may become drier and the dry seasons may become wetter. 37

Glacial melt Glaciated regions of the world act as natural water towers that provide water to downstream areas. As glaciers continue to retreat in response to climate change38, runoff to rivers will initially increase in the short-term due to the large volumes of stored melting away. Eventually these stores of ice may disappear entirely, however, resulting in a long- term decreases in annual runoff and stream discharge.39

36 Sailor and Muñoz. (1997). Ibid. 37 Harrison, G. P., & Whittington, H. (2002). Susceptibility of the Batoka Gorge hydroelectric scheme to climate change. Journal of Hydrology, 264(1-4), 230-241.; Hauenstein, W. (2005). Ibid. 38 Izrael, Y. (2007). Ibid. 39 Huss, M. (2011). Present and future contribution of storage change to runoff from macroscale drainage basins in Europe. Water Resources Research, 47 (7).

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5. REGIONAL FINDINGS

We divided the globe regionally into the Middle East, Asia, Africa, Oceania, Europe, North America and . Though neither river systems nor climate change affects are constrained by manmade political boundaries, many case studies and data sets are. Our regional findings provided a preliminary basis for collecting information, which we then synthesized to create our illustrated framework. This report integrates information from each region to form the basis of our analysis. Though climate change impacts will be specific to certain areas, our regional findings guided our conclusion of which climate change impacts will most significantly impact hydropower generation across the globe. Each regional study provides valuable insight into how different types of dam characteristics will be most affected by different types of climate change impacts. While each region of the globe will be impacted by climate change, the severity and type of these impacts will vary significantly. It is also important to mention that each region of the globe faces unique political, social and economic factors that will determine how they will be able to respond to climate change impacts on hydropower generation.

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North America

Magnitude of dependence on hydropower

The United States and rank among the top four largest hydroelectricity producers in the world.40 is considerably less developed with regards to hydropower, but has some very large dams currently operational and the potential for additional large- and small-scale dams to be constructed (Figure 17).

Figure 17: North American hydropower dependence. Percent of total installed capacity dedicated to hydropower. Data: US Energy Information Administration, 2008.

40 U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2011c). International energy statistics.

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Region 2008 Total Electricity 2008 Hydroelectricity Percent Hydro Generation (billion Generation (billion Production kilowatt-hours) kilowatt-hours) North America 4,998.18 672.26 13.5 Canada 632.22 378.64 60 Mexico 245.52 38.79 15.8 United States 4,119.39 254.83 6.2 Figure 18. North American hydroelectric production by country. Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International energy statistics, 2011.

As Figure 18 depicts, Canada is the hydroelectric powerhouse of North America. Considering that 60 percent of its installed electricity generating capacity come from hydropower, Canada is very dependent on this resource, both for its own use and for exportation.41 In 2008, hydropower contributed 26.4 percent of Canada’s total , coming in a close second to ’s 31.3 percent contribution. In 2009, Canada exported 51.1 BKWh of electricity to the United States, yielding them a net export of 33.6 BKWh in electric power.42 On a smaller scale, the provinces in which most of Canada’s installed hydropower facilities are located are even more dependent on this resource.

The U.S., like Canada, produces hundreds of billions of kilowatt-hours in hydroelectricity every year, yet this makes up only 6.2 percent of its total electricity generation.43 Due to its reliance on other sources of energy (mostly conventional fossil fuels like , petroleum, and natural gas), the U.S. is not as dependent on hydropower production as Canada. However, as noted above, there is considerable power sharing between the U.S. and Canada, so any fluctuations in Canada’s hydropower output could affect the U.S. In addition, there are some regions in the U.S. that are vastly more dependent on hydroelectricity than the country is as a whole—for example, the , which relies on hydro for about 75 percent of its electricity.

In Mexico, petroleum comprises 58 percent of energy consumption. Hydroelectricity represents only 5 percent of the country’s total energy consumption, though hydropower is Mexico’s primary renewable resource.44 Lacking the natural and economic resources that the U.S. and Canada both have to develop hydropower on a larger scale, Mexico is not as reliant on it as the other two North American nations.

41 U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2011c). Ibid. 42 U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2011). Canada energy data, statistics and analysis – oil, gas, electricity, coal. 43 U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2011c). Ibid. 44 U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2011). Mexico.

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Type and distribution of hydropower

Canada has a long hydroelectric history and as such has developed a mixed infrastructure of both reservoir and run-of-river dams. However, the country relies mostly on large reservoir dams, like the behemoth 15,000 MW La Grande system located in , for the bulk of its electricity production. Many of Canada’s hydroelectric entities are located in the provinces of Quebec or in British Columbia.45 The most significant of these projects is the Quebec state-owned utility Hydro-Quebec. With 60 operating facilities and a total capacity of 36,671 MW, it is the world’s largest hydroelectricity producer.46 Despite its abundance of reservoir and run-of-river projects, Canada has developed few pumped storage facilities.

Figure 19. 2010 capacity of U.S. hydroelectric generators, by initial year of operation. From U.S. Energy Information Administration, Hydropower has a long history in the United States, 2011.

The U.S. is similarly mature in its hydropower development. As seen in Figure 19, U.S. hydroelectric capacity really began in the 1930’s with Tennessee Valley Authority projects, boomed between 1950 and 1980, and has slowed down since then.47 Most river resources in the U.S. that are capable of supporting large hydroelectric infrastructure have already been developed as reservoir dams. Many of the largest of these facilities, like the 6,809 MW in Washington and the 2,080 MW Hoover Dam in Arizona and Nevada, are located in the west and northwest parts of the nation. Over half of the U.S. hydroelectric capacity is located in Washington, Oregon, and California.48,49 The U.S. has also developed a number of run-of-river hydroelectric facilities. The largest of these, the 2,620 MW in Washington, is the second most productive hydroelectric station in the

45 U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2011). Ibid. 46 Hydro-Quebec. (2011). Annual Report 2010. 47 U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2011b). Hydropower has a long history in the United States. 48 Ibid. 49 Markoff, M. S., & Cullen, A. C. (2008). Impact of climate change on Pacific Northwest hydropower. Climatic Change, 87(3), 451-469.

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country. Pumped storage is also a large part of the U.S.’s electricity production. The U.S. is second only to Japan in pumped storage hydroelectricity production and has about three times the capacity of the next most productive nation, Italy. In 2009, the U.S. boasted a total pumped storage capacity of 21.86 mKW.50

Mexico, while more reliant on hydropower as a source of electricity than the U.S., has not developed nearly as much infrastructure. There are some large reservoir dams in operation, including the 2,400 MW Manuel Moreno Torres in Chiapas, but fewer small-scale and run-of-river projects, and no pumped storage facilities at all.51 Most of Mexico’s current hydropower development is situated in the central or northwestern parts of the country.

Future hydropower development

The United States and Canada have similar hydropower outlooks, since most of their high- capacity river systems have already been harnessed. They must look towards means other than the construction of new dams to increase hydropower capacity. This is further complicated by the fact that hydro development in these countries is now more than ever restricted by complicated regulatory procedures and environmental opposition, due to a growing understanding of the ecological and social harms that can result from unchecked projects.52 Therefore, the path forward will most likely involve increasing the capacity of current facilities through additions and improved technology, promoting new like run-of-river, and adding hydroelectric capabilities onto existing but untapped dams. Improvements in efficiency can improve station operating capacity for a relatively low cost, especially considering the average lifetime for a U.S. turbine exceeds 50 years, and there is great potential in the refitting of unused facilities as well—of the 75,200 American dams in place, only 2,744 are being used for hydroelectric production.53,54

Mexico has more freedom to develop large dams than the U.S. or Canada, but, as mentioned before, less economic power to do so. Therefore, Mexico will most likely see large reservoir dams constructed at a slower pace than small hydro or pumped storage facilities in the near future. The technically feasible hydroelectric potential was estimated in 1996 to be

50 U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2011c). Ibid. 51 International Energy Agency. (2011b). Mexico. Retrieved from http://www.small-hydro.com/ index.cfm?Fuseaction=countries.country&Country_ID=53. 52 International Energy Agency. (2011). United States of America. Retrieved from http://www.small-hydro.com/ index.cfm?Fuseaction=countries.country&Country_ID=82. 53 Hayes, S. J. (2001). Interest surges forward in North American hydropower: interest in hydroelectric power is flowing once again, thanks not only to high natural-gas prices and regional electricity shortages, but also to new technologies that boost performance and mitigate environmental impact. Power 145(4), 32-42. 54 International Energy Agency. (2011). Ibid.

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45,000 GWh/year and only about 60 percent of this has been exploited, so the potential for more development certainly exists.55

Climate change impacts and implications for hydropower

Quebec, the heartland of Canada’s hydroelectricity production, is expected to see a long- term increase in both mean annual precipitation and temperature. Seasonally, winter precipitation is expected to increase significantly more than spring or summer-autumn precipitation. In the short-term, the increased temperatures are expected to decrease runoff in the summer-autumn months until 2030, when the increased precipitation will set runoff amounts on an upwards trajectory.56 The changing climate is also predicted to exacerbate extreme weather events, meaning that ice storms, like the one in 1998 that prevented Hydro-Quebec power from reaching for over a month, could become more of an issue.57

The West and Pacific Northwest of the United States is expected to see increased temperatures year-round, leading to less precipitation in the summer months and more precipitation—in the form of rain as well as —in the winter months. Increased temperatures are already causing snowpack to melt earlier in the year, and this trend is expected to continue.58 More winter precipitation, earlier snowmelts, and less summer precipitation combine to yield an earlier powerful peak flow which can flood out smaller dams, followed by drought conditions in the summer when hydroelectricity is needed most to power units across the region. This has already taken its toll in recent years on some hydropower facilities in the Pacific Northwest.59

Mexico is expected to see severe temperature increases in the future due to climate change, with precipitation trends being less predictable. recharge will be hindered and desertification will be more common.60 This would be particularly devastating in the north and northwest regions which already have a semiarid climate. In addition, Mexico, already recognized as a natural disaster-prone country, is expected to suffer more extreme weather events due to climate change.61

55 International Energy Agency. (2011b). Ibid. 56 Minville, M., Brissette, F., Krau, S., & Leconte, R. (2009). Adaptation to climate change in the management of a Canadian water-resources system exploited for hydropower. Water Resources Management, 23(14), 2965-2986. 57 Vermont Energy Partnership. (2005). Vermont’s Energy Future: The Hydro-Quebec Factor. Retrieved from http://www.vtep.org/documents/ISSUESBRIEF-Hydro-Quebec09-19-05.pdf. 58 Markoff, M. S., & Cullen, A. C. (2008). Ibid. 59 Power Markets Week. (2005). With drought, northwestern hydropower face another potentially risky year. Power Markets Week, 10. 60 Boyd, R., & Ibarrarán, M. E. (2009). Extreme climate events and adaptation: An exploratory analysis of drought in Mexico. Environment and Development Economics, 14(3), 371-395. 61 Ibid.

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The expected long-term increase of annual and seasonal precipitation in parts of Canada has the capacity to increase hydroelectric output in those areas. One study in the Peribonka River watershed in Quebec, Canada predicted mean annual hydropower to decrease by 1.8 percent between 2010-2039 (due to initial early peak flows and lack of summer precipitation) and subsequently increase by 9.3 percent and 18.3 percent during 2040- 2069 and 2070-2099 respectively (due to steadily increasing precipitation amounts).62 This initial decrease in production is expected to hit run-of-river dams harder than reservoir dams, as they are unable to absorb the impact of low summer flows through storage of river water from earlier in the year. Also, while the long-term prognosis for hydroelectric production is good, there are a couple of predicted negative impacts: firstly, the increased volatility of discharge due to more frequent extreme events and changing seasonal patterns is expected to lower the reliability of reservoirs to store water efficiently, resulting in more unproductive overspill; secondly, as can be seen in Figure 20, which analyzes four of the dams in the Peribonka River basin, peak flows are expected to come earlier and with less discharge.63

Figure 20: Predicted monthly discharge changes for four dams on the Peribonka River in Quebec, Canada. From Minville et al., 2009.

62 Minville, M., Brissette, F., Krau, S., & Leconte, R. (2009). Ibid. 63 Ibid.

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The predicted increased temperature and potential decreased rainfall that the Pacific Northwest of the United States is expected to see will most likely have a negative effect on mean annual discharge, and therefore hydroelectric production in the region. Some predictions forecast a 40 percent loss in production by 2080.64 Earlier snowmelts will shift seasonal peak flow time thereby hurting hydroelectric production, especially during the summer when it’s needed most.65

In the dry north and northwestern parts of Mexico, vulnerability of hydroelectric plants to drought is extremely high, and they stand to suffer the most in production loss if water sources dry up and become less reliable. If temperatures increase significantly, though, droughts could threaten hydroelectric production in all parts of the country.66

Effects on human livelihood

Canada and, even more so, the United States have sufficient economic security and diversified energy portfolios to supplement their hydroelectric production if it becomes negatively impacted by climate change. Some regions are certainly more in danger than others, but on the whole neither country will likely see any catastrophic blackouts. The western United States may have to deal with another challenge, however: the adequate provision of water to both municipalities and industries. With temperatures predicted to increase in the region, droughts will become more frequent and competition for equitable water usage will become fiercer. This competition will most likely be the greatest threat to Mexico’s well-being, especially considering most of the population in the center, north, and northwest parts of the country where water is already scarce. Also, Mexico lacks the wealth to fund effective climate change adaption policies, meaning areas that receive the majority of their power from hydroelectric plants may be in danger of blackouts if the output of those plants is hindered.67

64 Markoff, M. S., & Cullen, A. C. (2008). Ibid. 65 Power Markets Week. (2005). Ibid. 66 Boyd, R., & Ibarrarán, M. E. (2009). Ibid. 67 Boyd, R., & Ibarrarán, M. E. (2009). Ibid.

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Europe

Magnitude of dependence on hydropower

Figure 21: European hydropower dependence. Percent of total installed capacity dedicated to hydropower. Data: US Energy Administration, 2008.

Hydropower accounts for approximately 19 percent of Europe’s total installed electric capacity.68 Within Europe, however, hydropower dependence ranges anywhere from 0 to 99 percent of individual countries’ energy production portfolios (Figure 21).69 This variation stems not only from differences in topography and hydrology across the region, but also from a number of economic, social, and political factors that have influenced development.

68U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2011c). Ibid. 69 Lehner, B., Czisch, G., & Vassolo, S. (2005). The impact of global change on the hydropower potential of Europe: A model-based analysis. Energy Policy, 33(7), 839-855.

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Type and distribution of hydropower

The varied geography of Europe has allowed for a broad range of hydropower types across different parts of the region, including pumped storage, run-of-river, and reservoir facilities at all scales. There is a high concentration of reservoir dams in mountainous and glaciated areas, including the , the , and (Figure 22). Run-of-river dams are typically found at lower elevations, where the flatter terrain is less suitable for reservoirs.70 Pumped storage hydropower, which is developed in conjunction with other power generation sources as a means of storing surplus energy produced at times of off-peak usage, is found primarily in .

Figure 22: Reservoir and run-of-river hydropower stations in Europe. Map from Lehner et al. 2005.

70 Hauenstein, W. (2005). Ibid

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Within Europe, Norway hydropower production with over 120 TWh generated annually.71 This equates to about 99 percent of the country’s electricity generation, and nearly 20 percent of total hydropower production in Europe (excluding Russia). Because of its mountainous terrain, Norway is well suited for large reservoirs that can balance long- term seasonal variations in flow to provide relatively high and stable production capacities.72 , in contrast, generates approximately 70 TWh per year, or roughly half of its total electricity generation, from hydropower. This power comes mostly from run-of river facilities, which are susceptible to temporal flow variability, so the remainder of Sweden’s electricity production comes from , a more stable source.73 Norway and Sweden have joined and Denmark, which use mostly fossil fuels and little hydropower, in an energy union with an integrated wholesale market.74 Although these four countries have very different energy portfolios, their electricity markets are interconnected to balance out prices and supply and demand fluctuations, and thus their vulnerabilities to climate change will be similarly intertwined.

The Alps, which stretch across France, Switzerland, Italy, Germany, and , provide much of the changes in topography that give Western Europe its hydropower potential and contain the origins of several major rivers that traverse the .75 Within the , high-head dams with relatively large reservoirs offer a seasonally stabilized source of electricity, as well as flood control in the summer months.76 Of these Alpine countries, Switzerland is most dependent on hydropower, producing 38 TWh annually, or 58 percent of its total electricity generation.77 As of 1998, Switzerland had the highest electricity production per total country surface area in the world.78 This of development does not come without a cost—in 2001, 80 percent of Switzerland’s alpine rivers were affected by damming.79

Hydropower production continues much farther downstream from the glaciers of Switzerland along the Rhone, Rhine, Po, and Rivers, stretching to the Mediterranean, North, Adriatic, and Black , respectively.80 In these lower-elevation

71 Lehner et al. (2005). Ibid. 72 Killingtveit, A. (2010). Hydro reaches the PEAK. International Water Power & Dam Construction, 30-32. 73 Cherry, J., Cullen, H., Visbeck, M., Small, A., & Uvo, C. (2005). Impacts of the North Atlantic oscillation on Scandinavian hydropower production and energy markets. Water Resources Management, 19(6), 673-691. 74 Amundsen, E. S., & Bergman, L. (2007). Integration of multiple national markets for electricity: The case of Norway and Sweden. Energy Policy, 35(6), 3383-3394. 75 Huss, M. (2011). Ibid. 76 Meile, T., Boillat, J. & Schleiss, A. J. (2010). Hydropeaking indicators for characterization of the upper-Rhone river in Switzerland. Aquatic Sciences, 73(1), 171-182. 77 Lehner et al. (2005). Ibid. 78 Truffer, B., Markard, J., Bratrich, C., & Wehrli, B. (2001). Green electricity from alpine hydropower plants. Mountain Research and Development, 21(1), 19-24. 79 Ibid. 80 Huss, M. (2011). Ibid.

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areas, the prevalence of run-of-river dams increases due to the flatter topography, though reservoir dams are still utilized as well. For example, the Iron Gates dam on the Danube at the border of Romania and Serbia is the largest in Europe, both in terms of reservoir size and production capacity.81 Though the glaciated areas of the Alps make up less than one percent of the total area of these rivers’ drainage basins, they provide a disproportionately large contribution to the flow at the mouth of the river—anywhere from 3 to 25 percent, depending on the river and the precipitation in a given year.82 Although glacial meltwater’s proportion of the total flow decreases with greater distance from glaciers due to input from other runoff within the basin, it is important to recognize the contribution of glaciers to downstream flow when considering the impacts of climate change.

Future hydropower development

Although the European Union is currently pushing for increased renewable energy production within the region, minimal growth is expected in the hydropower sector in the coming decades.83 In 2009, 390 MW of new hydropower production capacity were installed, amounting to only 1.4 percent of the total new electric capacity in the EU.84 In western Europe, most of the hydropower potential has already been captured—relatively few economically and politically viable dam sites remain.85 Although there is remaining hydropower capacity in , strong opposition to new dams has halted development. In and western Russia, in contrast, many opportunities for hydropower projects remain, but economic difficulties have inhibited their development thus far. In the near future, hydropower development in these countries will likely consist of only renovations or updates to existing dams unless these economic barriers are overcome.

Despite these doubts, there is some evidence of continued and growing interest in new hydropower development in Europe. A 2010 Deutsche Bank report, “Hydropower in Europe: The Alps, and South-eastern Europe – rich in opportunities,” encourages future investment in hydropower, emphasizing that only 64 percent of the region’s economically viable potential has been tapped.86 Additionally, growth in , which made up nearly 40 percent of new electric capacity in the EU in 2009, will likely spur the development of more pumped-storage capacity.87 Pumped-storage facilities,

81 Lehner et al. (2011). Ibid. 82 Huss, M. (2011). Ibid. 83 Killingtveit. (2010). Ibid. 84 Bloem, H., Monforti-Ferrario, F., Szabo, M., & Jäger-Waldau, A. (2010). Renewable Energy Snapshots 2010. European Commission's Institute for Energy. 85 Lehner et al. (2005). Ibid. 86 Auer, J. (2010). Hydropower in Europe: The Alps, Scandinavia and Southeastern Europe - Rich in Opportunities. Deutsche Bank Research. 87 Bloem et al. (2010). Ibid.

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either standalone or incorporated into existing reservoirs, would harness surplus wind power during off-peak hours to pump water up into reservoirs, and then use this stored water for hydropower production during times of peak load. Norway is particularly suited for pumped-storage development—its reservoirs can store 84TWh of potential energy, equivalent to 70 percent of their average annual inflow or half of the total storage capacity in Europe.88

Climate change impacts and implications for hydropower

Although predictions vary depending on the model, in general water availability is likely to increase across northern Europe and decrease in southern and southeastern Europe over the next several decades (Figure 23).89 How these widespread trends will effect hydropower production in the countries and regions within Europe depends on specific changes in flow regime and characteristics of existing hydropower development.

Figure 23: Predicted changes in river discharge across Europe by two models, for

2020s and 2070s. Map from Lehner et al. 2005.

88 Killingtveit . (2010). Ibid. 89 Lehner et al. (2005). Ibid.

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In south and southeastern Europe, decreased precipitation and increased likelihood of droughts will to reduced water availability in 2070, with a corresponding decline in hydropower production potential.90 Within these areas, Portugal, Spain, , and Bulgaria will be most severely affected, with decreases in developed production potential of 20 to 50 percent.91 In the short-term, glacially fed rivers, such as those originating in the Alps and Pyrenees, will likely see increases in summer discharge as glaciers melt faster than they regenerate. Already, rivers in the Alps are seeing 13 percent increases in flow in August compared to two decades ago, and many glaciers have diminished significantly.92 In the long-term, the contribution of these retreating glaciers to river flow will decrease, by 15 to 45 percent by the end of this century.93

Although Scandinavia and northern Russia are predicted to see increased water availability, this change does not necessarily translate to a direct, equivalent increase in hydropower production. Depending on the timing of precipitation events and the resulting discharge, as well as the storage capacity of a dam, a site that is projected to experience greater discharge volume could actually see lowered power production potential because of more extreme high and low flows.94 Run-of-river dams, of which there are many in Sweden, are particularly susceptible to changes in flow pattern because of their inability to store discharge that exceeds maximum production capacity. Thus, an analysis of the impacts of climate change on hydropower in northern Europe must examine not only production capacity and changing water availability, but also the type of hydropower facilities.

In Europe, many dammed rivers cross international boundaries, and the electricity market is interconnected by energy unions—the Union for the Co-ordination of Transmission of Electricity (UCTE), for example, connects much of western and southeastern Europe.95 Thus, changes in runoff and hydropower production within individual countries or regions should not simply be considered in isolation. Overall across Europe, developed hydropower potential is predicted to decrease 7 to 12 percent by the year 2070.96 These decreases must also be considered within a broader context of increased water and electricity usage, which will put further strain on the region’s rivers and dams.

90 Lehner et al. (2005). Ibid. 91 Ibid. 92 Huss, M. (2011). Ibid. 93 Ibid. 94 Lehner et al. (2005). Ibid. 95 Ibid. 96 Ibid.

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Effects on human livelihood

Although Europe is predicted to see slight decreases in hydropower production, on average, it is unlikely that it will face severe detrimental effects on human livelihood as a result. Energy unions within the region, with diversified sources of electricity, should help the countries that will be most affected, like Switzerland, cope with decreased electricity production from hydropower. Additionally, some of the most dependent countries, like Norway, are predicted to experience increased hydropower production potential.

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South America

Magnitude of dependence on hydropower

Figure 24: Latin American hydropower dependence. Percent of total installed capacity dedicated to hydropower. Data: US Energy Administration, 2008.

Of all of the regions in the world, Latin America is one of the most reliant on hydropower for its energy production. Installed hydropower capacity in Latin America has the potential to produce approximately 140,000MW, or between 50-60 percent of the region’s energy demands.97 All nations in Latin America rely significantly on hydropower as an important energy resource (Figure 24). , Paraguay, , and Costa Rica are most reliant on hydropower, which provides over 80 percent of their electricity supply.98 Although the region already relies heavily on hydropower, some experts predict that hydropower could supply over 90 percent of the entire region’s energy.99 Hydroelectric projects tend to be

97 U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2011). Ibid. 98 Ibid. 99 Castano, I. (2011). Hydroelectricity, to lead latam renewables growth. Renewable Energy World.

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accepted by the general public of Latin America which views hydropower as a good use of the abundant renewable resources of Latin America’s great and powerful river systems.

Type and distribution of hydropower

Large-scale, reservoir dams are the technology of choice when it comes to hydropower stations in Latin America. Three of the world’s four largest hydroelectric projects, in terms of power generating capacity, are located in Latin America. Thanks to large foreign investments, the expertise of international companies, the general conception that large-scale hydropower development is a good thing for the region, and privately and publically shared profits from most hydroelectric projects, large-scale hydropower dominates Latin America.

The Itaipu Hydroelectric Project located on the Paraná River, generates enough electricity to power 16.4 percent of Brazil and 71.3 percent of Paraguay simultaneously when running at maximum efficiency.100,101 Other large-scale dams in Brazil are located along the Uatuma, Grande, Sao Paulo, and Madeira Rivers. The Guri Dam on the River supplies Venezuela with 73 percent of its electricity needs as well as fulfilling some needs of neighboring Columbia and Brazil. The Tucuruí Dam in Brazil is the fourth largest hydroelectric project in the world and supplies Brazil with 10 percent of its electricity demands.102 Venezuela receives 70 percent of its energy from three plants on the Caroni River.103 Peru recently completed the 600MW Limon Dam on the Huancabamba River which, beyond producing electricity, will also divert 2 billion cubic meters of Amazonian water to the northwestern Peruvian in a 20km tunnel through the Andes.104 Costa Rica receives over 70 percent of its power from the Lake Arenal Dam. Argentina has large hydroelectric dams on the Limay, Dolores, Los Molinos, Uruguay, San Roque, and Paraná Rivers. These examples reveal that some nations are highly dependent not just on hydropower in general, but on single dams. This focused reliance has the potential to amplify vulnerability.

Future hydropower development

Though countries in Latin America have attempted to diversify their energy portfolios in recent years, almost every country in Latin America plans to continue expansion of their

100 Freitas, M. A. V. (2009). Vulnerability to climate change and water management: Hydropower generation in Brazil. WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment,124, 217-226. 101 Itaipu Binacional. (2011). Energy. Retrieved from http://www.itaipu.gov.br/en/energy/energy. 102 Encyclopedia Britannica. (2011). Guri dam. In Encyclopedia Britannica Online Academic Edition. ed. Encyclopedia Britannica Inc. 103 Ray, R. W. (2009). A review of the hot hydro market in Latin America. HydroWorld, 17(9). 104 Andina. (2009). Peru builds 20km water tunnel in Lambayaeque.

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hydropower potential.105 Brazil has the largest reserve of surface freshwater on the planet—just less than 20 percent of the global supply—with most of that found in the relatively undeveloped regions of the Amazon River.106 Argentina and Chile share the world’s third largest store of ice as well as all of the rivers that compose the region of . The northwestern sector of South America—including Peru, Bolivia, Ecuador, and —is just starting to discover its hydropower potential thanks to recent energy crises and the exploding demand for electricity fueled by a rapidly growing middle class.107

Brazil currently has plans or is in the process of constructing 25,000MW of new hydropower projects on the Xingu, Madeira, Tapajos, and Tocantins Rivers—all tributaries of the Amazon River—in order to fulfill the increasing electricity demands of the growing middle class.108 The 11,000MW Belo Monte hydroelectric project in northern Brazil will begin operating sometime in 2014.109 The construction of the Santo Antonio complex on the Madeira River should be complete sometime in 2012.110

In Ecuador, the projected Coca Codo Sinclair hydroelectric facility on the Guayllabamba River is projected to supply the country with 70 percent of its electricity, thereby providing power to the country which formerly purchased its electricity from neighboring Peru and Colombia. Venezuela predicts that it needs 1,000MW of new installed capacity each year over the next decade to keep up with growing demand; it plans to meet this demand by developing 11 hydroelectric projects throughout the country. Peru is developing the 109MW Cheves hydroelectric project on the Huaura River.111 Between 2009 and 2013, Panama will have added 1,047MW of hydroelectric generating capacity through the construction of 31 new dams on the Chiriqui, Chiriqui Viejo, and the Chico Rivers.112 Chile is now in the initial development phases of several hydroelectric complexes totaling 2,750MW in Patagonia.113 Latin America does not show any signs of fear in the face of impending climate change effects on hydropower production. They continue moving forward with large projects, upon which significant amounts of people—sometimes nearly entire countries—will rely.

105 Castano. (2011). Ibid. 106 Ibid. 107 Newsweek Magazine. (2008). Dams are rejected in America as too destructive, yet they are still promoted in Latin America. Newsweek Magazine, Retrieved from http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2008/09/12/generating-conflict.html. 108 Ray, 2009. Ibid. 109 Ibid. 110 Ibid. 111 Newsweek Magazine. (2008). Ibid. 112 Ibid. 113 Ibid.

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Climate change impacts and its implications for hydropower

Projections related to climate change in Latin America vary significantly at regional levels from model to model.114 It is believed that the ambiguity of the models is due to the ’s “hydrometereological observation network being smaller and more recently established than that of the .”115 Water related climate changes in Latin America, like climate change in general, show a great deal of variability across the region as a whole. Different projections associated with evaporation and precipitation make it very difficult to make stream flow projections. It can be expected that general changes in rainfall patterns will occur. More specifically, increased frequency of extreme rainfall events throughout the region will lead to greater instances of flooding over larger areas and longer periods of time.116,117

Greater rainfall is expected in the River Plate Basin between Argentina and Uruguay due to the trend of increasing rainfall in the region from 1960 to 2000. During the same time frame, however, there have been notable decreases in rainfall over western Chile and Peru, leading to the prediction that rainfall levels will continue to decrease on the Pacific side of South America in the near future. The Amazon River watershed is predicted to feel significant effects of climate change over the next half century. As the intensity of the El Niño Southern Oscillation increases, the region is forecast to receive markedly less rainfall. The ways in which the El Niño Southern Oscillation affects rainfall variability in the Brazilian and is still poorly understood. This zone of Latin America, known as the Llanos—or the Amazon plains of Bolivia, Peru, and western Brazil—has great impacts on the downstream variability in discharge of the Amazon River.118,119

Changes in river flows in Latin America are mainly associated with changes in rainfall as well as changing use practices. Due to the relatively drier climates in the Amazon associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation, significant decreases in stream outflow in parts of the Amazon and Tocantins river basins are expected. The Paraná River however— which contains more than 55 percent of Brazil’s installed hydroelectric capacity as well as great hydroelectric generation potential for Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay—is projected to experience river flows that are significantly higher than today due to increased rainfall amounts throughout the River Plate .120 Very little research exists on

114 Izrael, Y. (2007). Ibid. 115 Soito, J. L., Freitas D. S. (2011). Amazon and the expansion of hydropower in brazil: Vulnerability, impacts and possibilities for adaptation to global climate change. Renewable & Reviews, 15(6), 3165-3177. 116 Izrael, Y. (2007). Ibid. 117 Soito and Freitas. (2011). Ibid. 118 Izrael, Y. (2007). Ibid. 119 Soito and Freitas. (2011). Ibid. 120 Izrael, Y. (2007). Ibid.

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the interactions of hydrology and climate change in Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Bolivia.121,122

Almost all climate change models predict increased temperatures across all of Latin America.123 The Amazon River Basin is a ‘hot spot’ for climate change manifestations but, because evaporation predictions are poorly understood for the region, it is difficult to assess how increased temperatures will play a role in hydropower generation.124,125 Though other studies have found it difficult to characterize how hydropower in the region will be affected by increased temperatures, our framework is able to do so successfully.

Prolonged droughts have become common phenomena in recent years throughout Latin America. Areas such as northeastern Brazil, northwestern South America, and central Chile have experienced droughts lasting on the order of several weeks to a few years. The occurrence of extreme droughts like these is expected to increase significantly in the coming decades as temperatures continue to increase while rainfall in these regions could decrease. is likely to see significantly more storm events, mainly in the form of hurricanes.126,127 Greater storm events mean increased temporal variability of river system discharge.

The La Plata River drainage basin is likely to see significantly higher rates of sediment deposition in the coming decades associated with increased rainfall in the region, as well as increased river discharge.128 This increased sedimentation will be costly for hydropower projects because it will require the dredging of the River on an annual basis to ensure flows maintain some form of equilibrium.

A significant amount of the region’s installed hydropower resources are located along the Paraná River, meaning most of these will not be affected by lower river discharges. In fact, some of the hydroelectric facilities in eastern South America may be able to upgrade and increase the amount of electricity they produce.

Latin American nations have a growing desire to install their own hydroelectric generation facilities—even those countries such as Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela, and northern areas of Brazil that are projected to see significantly lower levels of river discharge. Because many

121 Ibid. 122 Soito and Freitas. (2011). Ibid. 123 Izrael, Y. (2007). Ibid. 124 Ibid. 125 Soito and Freitas. (2011). Ibid. 126 Izrael, Y. (2007). Ibid. 127 Soito and Freitas. (2011). Ibid. 128 Ibid.

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of the largest projects have already been developed (e.g., Itaipu, Guri, and Tucuruí), engineers have been forced to decrease the size of containment reservoirs above dams. This makes facilities more vulnerable to periods of drought (see Figure 16). The increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events (e.g., flooding and droughts) will require countries and private industries that are in control of hydroelectric facilities to develop more flexible approaches to managing these reservoirs.129

Effects on human livelihood

Due to the increased frequency and intensity of droughts in recent years, many countries in Latin America have experienced severe economic effects associated with blackouts, which at times have lasted months on end. In 2010, rolling blackouts in Venezuela were associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation and what President Hugo Chavez declared as “Venezuela’s worst drought in 100 years.”130 The rolling blackouts caused the government to enforce price hikes on some of the largest electrical consumers in the nation thereby harming the economic development of the country as a whole.131 In the last decade, countries that have experienced daily rolling blackouts over a period of several months include parts of Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela, Paraguay, Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay.

Beyond the harmful effects of droughts on hydropower generation in Latin America, the power grid directly associated with hydroelectric facilities is extremely susceptible to extreme climatic events. In November 2009, historic blackouts hit Brazil—including the cities of Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo—as well as the entire country of Paraguay after a bolt of lightning struck a transformer near the causing the entire dam to shut down automatically.132 Over 60 million individuals were without power for between several hours to a few days.133 With the expected arrival of the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Summer Olympics, Latin America cannot afford to lose power while it is in the global spotlight.

Lastly, because of the growing realization that large-scale hydropower generation to produce nearly the entirety of individual countries’ energy portfolios is relatively ineffective and highly vulnerable to climate change events, individuals in certain regions have begun to fight back against development of new hydroelectric projects. Pristine natural areas such as Patagonia and the Amazon River Basin will see growing resistance from locals and foreign non-governmental organizations. Stories of financial corruption

129 Soito and Freitas. (2011). Ibid. 130 Associated Press. (2010). Venezuela starts nationwide electricity rationing. MSNBC. 131 BBC (2010). 132 La Nación. (2010). Brasil: Tormenta política por el apagón. 133 Ibid.

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and massacres of indigenous peoples will also likely come to the forefront of hydropower development in Latin America in coming years.134 Indeed, attention to the social responsibility of hydroelectric facility managers to the people of nations with dams will continue to grow as climate change impacts are felt.

134 . (2011). Latin America. Retrieved from http://www.internationalrivers.org/latin-america.

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Oceania

Magnitude of dependence on hydropower

Figure 25: Hydropower dependence in Oceania. Percent of total installed capacity dedicated to hydropower. Data: US Energy Administration, 2008.

There are varying scales of hydropower in the Asian-Pacific region. maintains the greatest installed capacity with 8,186 MW,135 followed by (5,373 MW), Malaysia (4520 MW), Indonesia (4,869 MW), the (3,291 MW), New (216 MW), and (85 MW).136 As the installed capacity of hydroelectric production varies within each country, so does each country’s dependence on hydroelectric production. In fact, hydro schemes in New Zealand provide 60-70 percent of the country’s annual electricity production,137 while Australia’s hydroelectric production comprises less

135 Harries, D. (2011). Hydroelectricity in Australia: Past, present and future. Ecogeneration, Retrieved from http://ecogeneration.com.au/news/hydroelectricity_in_australia_past_present_and_future/055974/. 136 Energici. (2010). Papua : Energy profile. Retrieved from http://www.energici.com/energy- profiles/by-country/oceania/papua-new-guinea. 137 Fairclough, R. (2007). An overview of power generation in New Zealand. Materials at High Temperatures, 24(4), 371-376.

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than 18 percent of the country’s total generation mix (Figure 25). Meanwhile and Fiji, with relatively small generation capacities, greatly depend on hydropower, with a respective 30 percent and 39 percent of their generation mix deriving from the source.138 The Philippines and Indonesia also significantly rely on hydropower, as 21 percent and 17.5 percent of their installed capacity base is comprised of hydroelectric generation. Although hydroelectric production comprises less than 10 percent of Malaysia’s total installed capacity, the recent completion of the 2400 MW Bakun Dam more than doubles the country’s electric capacity to 4520 MW. While the completion of the large- scale dam leads to a greater dependence on hydroelectric production, the dam’s actual impact on the country’s electric grid and generation mix has yet to be fully examined.

Type and distribution of hydropower

The majority of hydroelectric production in Australia is concentrated in (29 percent) and New South (55 percent),139 with remaining schemes distributed throughout , , and . With low and variable rainfall throughout Australia, most of the hydroelectric projects are reservoir projects with the capacity to store several years of flow.140 Meanwhile pumped storage accounts for 1,490 MW of Australia’s hydroelectric capacity.141 Unlike Australia, New Zealand has little storage capacity to buffer limited flow rates in times of drought. While New Zealand’s topography produces high head at hydroelectric facilities, most reservoirs have the capacity of mere months. In fact according to one article, “Dry winters in 1992, 2001, and 2003 all led to a reduction in hydroelectric production of about 20 percent.”142 Indeed, with small storage reservoirs, New Zealand, along with its significant dependence on hydropower, is at great risk in drought scenarios.

The remainder of the South Pacific hydroelectric production is heavily dependent on reservoir type dams. Ranging in and reservoir volume, the size of each reservoir is dependent on each location. The recently completed Bakun Dam in Malaysia presents the largest reservoir, at 70,000 hectares,143 approximately the size of Singapore.144

138 Energici. (2010). Ibid. 139 Harries, D. (2011). Ibid. 140 Ford, N. (2006). Hydro in the mix in New Zealand. International Water Power & Dam Construction, 58(11), 10. 141 Harries, D. (2011). Ibid. 142 Ford, N. (2006). Ibid. 143 Bakun National Hydroelectric Project. (2011). Retrieved from http://www.bakundam.com/home.html. 144 Ibid.

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Future hydropower development

Australia has begun to assess hydroelectric development and its potential to provide electricity to remote and smelting facilities.145 As most of these operations draw electricity from geographically distant fossil supplies, hydropower has the potential to provide mining enterprises with low-cost, reliable energy generated from relatively proximate locations. Although there is discussion of localized hydropower development in Australia, future development is somewhat limited due to the lack of large-scale water resources, and the abundance of domestic, low-cost fossil fuels.146 Future hydroelectric development for use by mining operations is also being planned in mining projects within Papua New Guinea and Indonesia.147

In the case of New Zealand, the best opportunity for additional hydroelectric development is through the expansion of medium and small-scale projects.148 In a report from New Zealand’s Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority, the Waikato region has an additional generation potential of 140 MW of generation through the expansion of existing projects.149 Additionally, the development of pumped storage facilities has come to the forefront of discussions as countries such as New Zealand hope to use plentiful wind resources to provide non-peak electricity to pumped storage facilities.150

Beyond Australia and New Zealand, many nations of Oceania anticipate the development of small-scale hydroelectric facilities. Specifically, Indonesia plans to develop hydroelectric projects in an attempt to establish and expand electrical grids in remote and rural areas.151 While Oceania has experienced recent development of large scale hydroelectric, small-scale hydroelectric developments command future development plans.

Climate change impacts and implications for hydropower

As much of the region depends on hydroelectric generation, small changes in climate patterns influencing stream flow can have major impacts on overall hydroelectric productivity. Despite the many studies completed in this region, there is still uncertainty in climate change prediction models with respect to precipitation.152 In one study, while an

145 Thackray, P. (2007). Potential opportunities for hydropower in the current mining resources boom. Retrieved from http://b-dig.iie.org.mx/BibDig/P08-0295/3_CONFERENCE/16.06.%20Thackray%20P.pdf 146 Ibid. 147 Ibid. 148 Ford, N. (2006). Ibid. 149 Ibid. 150 Ibid. 151 Suroso. (2002) The prospect of small hydro power development in Indonesia. Retrieved from http://www.hrcshp.org/en/world/db/Country_Report_Indonesia.pdf. 152 Lal, M., McGregor, J. L., & Nguyen, K. C. (2008). Very high-resolution climate simulation over Fiji using a global variable-resolution model. Climate Dynamics, 30(2), 293-305.

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increase in precipitation of 0.1-9.3 percent was predicted under IPCC A1B scenarios for the Philippines, IPCC A2 climate models predicted precipitation to range from a decrease of 3.3 percent to an increase of 3.3 percent.153 Dependent on predicted scenario, the Philippines (similar to other countries in the region)154 may experience unpredictable climates. Varying predictions include increased rainfall during the monsoon season or persistent dry months throughout the year.155 The uncertainty in climate models is also seen for Australia. Some studies predict increased precipitation in southeastern Australia156 (where the majority of hydroelectric production is located), while other studies forecast a drier future on average.157

Increase in temperature is projected throughout Oceania.158 With increased evaporation, propelled by warmer temperatures, stream flow may be adversely affected. Although evaporation plays an influential role in the hydrological process, precipitation changes— and perhaps most importantly—shifts in monsoon-related precipitation will play the most dominant role in stream flow changes in the region.159

Countries like New Zealand are the most susceptible to conditions of decreased precipitation due to their dependence on reservoir dams with relatively little capacity. Compared to Australian dams, with large-capacity reservoir dams, most of New Zealand’s dams have little ability to buffer drought conditions.

Effects on human livelihood

The changing climate may have profound effects on hydroelectric production as it relates to human livelihood. While most of the region maintains a considerable dependence on hydroelectric production, countries such as New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, and Fiji face the greatest risk in human security with their significant dependence on hydropower (Figure 25). In fact, a drought in 2001 forced New Zealand to cut its power use by 10 percent for ten weeks, and within that time period the treasury estimated a public loss of

153 Combalicer, E. A., Cruz, R. V. O., Lee, S., & Im, S. (2010). Assessing climate change impacts on water balance in the Mount Makiling , Philippines. Journal of Earth System Science, 119(3), 265-283. 154 Adnan, N. A., & Atkinson, P. M. (2011). Exploring the impact of climate and changes on streamflow trends in a monsoon catchment. International Journal of , 31(6), 815-831. 155 Espinueva, S. R. (2010). Extreme events and climate change projections for the Philippines: An opportunity for collaborative research. Retrieved from http://jsps-th.org/wp-jsps/wp- content/uploads/2011/02/25.-SRE- extended-abstract-of-JSPS-international.pdf. 156 Hughes, L. L. (2003). Climate change and Australia: Trends, projections and impacts. Austral Ecology, 28(4), 423- 443. 157 Chiew, F. H. S., Young, W. J., Cai, W., & Teng, J. (2011). Current drought and future hydroclimate projections in southeast Australia and implications for water resources management. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 25(4), 601-612. 158 Combalicer et al. (2010). Ibid. 159 Adnan et al. (2011). Ibid.

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about $83 million.160 Additionally, private enterprises were adversely affected by the drought. Indeed, one private energy retailer was forced out of the energy market and faced losses of nearly $131 million.161

Dam failure in smaller countries such as Fiji also presents tremendous impacts on human livelihood as a small number of dams account for the majority of the country’s total hydroelectric production. With hydroelectric facilities producing nearly 40 percent of the nation’s total electrical generation, if hydroelectric production falls below expected levels there is a significant chance that the nation will not have enough energy. Overall, as Oceania’s maintains a considerable weight in the hydroelectric sector, the region is greatly susceptible to changing hydrologic patterns. Although climate change models are uncertain in the area, there is no doubt that decreases in precipitation can have profound effects on both the public and private sectors.

160 Petroleum Economist. (2001). New Zealand faces power cuts over drought. Power Economics: Policy, Markets, Finance, 5(8), 5. 161 Ibid.

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Asia

Magnitude of dependence on hydropower

Figure 26: Asian hydropower dependence. Percent of total installed capacity dedicated to hydropower. Data: US Energy Administration, 2008.

A large and rapidly developing continent, Asia also contains some of the world’s most extensive and powerful river basins. The burgeoning population of Asia and the expansion of urban areas have caused a growth in electricity demand. Less than a quarter of the continent’s energy comes from hydroelectricity. The vast majority of the electricity— almost seventy percent—is supplied by conventional thermal power plants.162 Many areas of Asia are incredibly rich in fossil fuels, which encourages the continent to rely on this cheap and readily available energy source.163 However, many Asian nations recognize the region’s unique vulnerability to climate change and have begun to take steps to reduce their carbon emissions through renewable . For example, China “plans to reduce carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP by 40-45 percent [by] 2020, and upgrade the proportion of non-fossil energy in consumption to about 15 percent.”164

162 U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2011c). Ibid. 163 Ibid. 164 Research report on Chinese hydropower industry: Hydropower a promising prospect with China suspending

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Nations like , , , and rely significantly on hydroelectricity, but the rivers which supply this power are already transforming due to the effects of global climate change.165 Of all the countries in Asia, China has invested the most in hydropower, spending over $200 billion hydropower within its borders and abroad.166 Despite this massive investment, hydropower only represents a meager 6.2 percent of the power China consumes and 6.7 percent of the power China generates. Coal burning power plants remain the largest sources of power; comprising 69 percent of the nation’s energy consumption and 76 percent of its energy production.167

Type and distribution of hydropower

The majority of hydropower projects in China and the rest of Asia are medium to large scale reservoir dams. However, there is interest in expanding micro hydropower in remote areas of the Himalaya where many communities are not yet electrified.168 The Himalayan nations of Bhutan and Nepal rely significantly on hydroelectricity generated by the massive change in elevation within their borders. Much of the hydropower produced in Bhutan is sold to the neighboring nation of . Indeed, the sale of hydropower to India generates over 50 percent of the Bhutanese gross government revenue.169 Hydroelectricity comprises the majority of electricity generation in the central Asian countries of Pakistan, , Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Though these nations have ambitious plans for expanding their hydroelectric sector, they have already experienced obstacles, both in the form of climactic variability and international tensions.170 Many rivers in Asia cross disputed borders, and dam building often heightens existing tensions. These international tensions will likely build as climate change threatens the already limited shared resources.

Future hydropower development

All across Asia, nations are interested in developing their hydropower potential in order to supply their growing energy demands. aims to increase their already

approval of nuclear projects. (2011). China Weekly News, 217. 165 U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2011).Ibid. 166 Research report on Chinese hydropower industry. (2011). Ibid. 167 Yan, Z. (2009). Present situation and future prospect of hydropower in china. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 13(6-7), 1652-1656. 168 Dhakal, S. (2011). Halting hydro: A review of the socio-technical barriers to hydroelectric power plants in Nepal. Energy (Oxford), 36(5), 3468-3476. 169 Magistad, Mary Kay. (7 July 2011). Bhutan’s Hydropower Challenge. PRI’s The World. Retrieved from http://www.theworld.org/2011/07/bhutans-hydropower-challenge/. 170 Steward, Richard. (8 Aug 2010). Tajikistan’s hydropower ambitions: the source of conflict in ? SHIP Peace Practitioners. Retrieved from https://sites.google.com/a/peacepractitioners.co.uk/scottish-highland- institute-for-peace/Articles/tajikistan%E2%80%99shydropowerambitionsthesourceofconflictincentralasia.

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significant reliance on hydropower by building more dams. However, there are many impediments to expansion. Some of the most significant plans for expansion are along the Mekong River, which flows through China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. Vietnam depends on hydroelectric to produce upwards of 70 percent of its power and neighboring Laos plans to build more dams on the Mekong River to become the battery of Southeast Asia.171 In September 2011, Burma’s president made an unexpected decision and ceased the construction of a Chinese-funded on the Mekong River due to public opposition.172 The limited water resources and the region’s hunger for hydropower development make this fluvial corridor a flash point.173 Central Asian countries are also hoping to significantly expand their hydropower capacity to supply both their own burgeoning electricity needs and to increase national funds by selling hydropower to China and Pakistan.174 However, before they are able to do so, they need to expand the energy deficient grid of South Asia.175 Despite the many constraints, Asian nations appear determined to expand their hydroelectric sector.

Climate change impacts and implications for hydropower

Asia has already experienced disasters related to climate change which are often compounded by poor land-use practices. These climate change impacts will certainly have implications for the viability of hydropower in the region. The most recent of extreme weather events is the massive flooding in Thailand during the fall of 2011. Scientists believe this monsoonal deluge can be linked to climate change.176 The 2010 floods in Pakistan affected over 20 million residents and inundated 62,000 square miles of the country. Scientists have also linked these floods to monsoon intensified by climate change.177 Many areas of Southeast Asia receive up to 80 percent of their annual rainfall during the summer months making the rivers highly variable during the monsoon season.178 Climate change scientists predict that with rising temperatures, the start of the

171 Hirsch, P. (2010). The changing political dynamics of dam building on the Mekong. Water Alternatives, 3(2), 312-323. 172 Burma dam: halted on divisive Myitsone project. (30 Sept 2011). BBC News: Asia-Pacific. Retrieved from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-15121801. 173 Fuller, T. (17 Dec 2009). Dams and development threaten the Mekong. The New York Times. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/18/world/asia/18mekong.html?ref=hydroelectricpower. 174 Peyrouse, S. (2007). The Hydroelectric sector in Central Asia and the growing role of China. Central Asia Institute: Silk Roads Study Program. 2(5), 131-148. Retrieved from http://www.silkroadstudies.org/new/docs/CEF/Quarterly/May_2007/Peyrouse.pdf. 175 Peyrouse,S (2007). Ibid. 176 Wild weather worsening due to climate change, IPCC confirms. (1 Nov. 2011). The Guardian. Retrieved from http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/nov/01/climate-change-weather-ipcc. 177 Doyle, A. “Analysis: Pakistan floods, Russia fit climate trend.”(9 Aug. 2010). Reuters. Retrieved from http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/08/09/us-climate-extreme-idUSTRE6782DU20100809. 178 Weakened monsoon season predicted for South Asia, due to rising temperatures. (27 Feb. 2009). Ibid.

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monsoon will arrive later in the year, lengthening the time between rains and increasing the region’s vulnerability to drought, especially during the summer growing season. The Chinese already regulate their dams along the Mekong River to produce a steady amount of electricity, but doing this causes downstream wet season flooding and dry season water shortages, problems which will likely be compounded by changes in the monsoon pattern.179 Unpredictability, surges in river flows, and water shortages are all linked to climate change induced alterations to the South Asian monsoon.

Droughts have also plagued Asia. Poor water management combined with climate change has spurned some of the most severe droughts in the continent’s history. In 2004, the Yunnan Province of China underwent one of the worst droughts in years, experiencing 60 percent less rainfall and leaving 8.1 million residents short on .180 Almost simultaneously, another heavy monsoon caused catastrophic flooding in , India, Nepal, Vietnam and other areas of China.181 Since the 1960s, the number of overall rainy days has decreased in China, while the number of extreme precipitation events has increased.182 Climate change has caused the temporal distribution of water resources to become more unpredictable in Asia.183 The unpredictability and volatility in precipitation across the continent naturally affects hydropower generation.

As climate change effects intensify, scientists predict that there will be more of these intense floods and droughts throughout Asia.184 levels are also projected to rise, causing coastal and erosion of the limited agricultural land in low-lying river deltas like the Mekong.185 In arid and semi-arid regions, both and availability are predicted to decrease.186 In the Indian and Pacific , there will be more high- storms which could affect rainfall and infrastructure.187 Though it is difficult to predict the future impacts of climate change, we can be certain that climate change will significantly affect Asia not only because of its ecological qualities and geographic location, but also because

179 Singapore paper views Chinese hydropower projects' impact on Southeast Asia. (2010). BBC Monitoring International Reports. 180 Qiu, J. (2010). China drought highlights future climate threats. Nature (London), 465(7295), 142-143. 181 South Asia flood crisis grows. (27 July 2004). The Guardian. Retrieved from http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2004/jul/27/naturaldisasters.climatechange1. 182 Qiu, J. (2010). Ibid. 183 McNally, A. (2009). Ibid. 184 BBC Monitoring International Reports. (6 June 2010). Hydropower projects threatened future of Mekong. Global News Wire - Asia Africa Intelligence Wire. 185 Ibid. 186 Hay, J. (2006). Supporting climate change vulnerability and adaptation assessments in the asia-pacific region: An example of sustainability science. Sustainability Science, 1(1), 23-35. 187 Ibid.

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many Asian nations lack the infrastructure and resources to effectively respond to crises spawned by climate change.

The Himalayan glaciers hold the largest store of outside the Polar Ice Caps.188 Many of the rivers on the Asian continent originate in the Himalayas. Steady glacial melt has fed these rivers, regulating their flow throughout the annual hydrological cycle. However, many of these glaciers are rapidly melting, causing yet more volatility in the flow levels of rivers in Asia. Though intensified glacial melt increases the flow level of the rivers they feed, rapid spring melting causes a shortage in late season flows,189 when water is often critical for agriculture. Deglaciation in the Himalaya will also cause rapid growth of glacial lakes, which will increase the likelihood of glacial lake outburst floods.190 These devastating and often unexpected floods could wreak havoc on hydroelectric infrastructure. The deglaciation pattern will deliver water to the rivers in sporadic bursts rather than a steady stream of flow. However, glacial melt will cause at least initial overall increased flow for the rivers originating in the Himalaya. Highly variable river flow is not optimal for hydropower, so even though deglaciation will increase the flows at certain periods of time, its variability and unpredictability make hydropower more vulnerable on rivers like the Indus and which receive over 40 percent of their volume from Himalayan glaciers.191 In addition to affecting hydropower, deglaciation will threaten the of entire areas of Asia such as , which relies on the glaciers to supply them with a reliable and constant source of water for drinking and as well as power.192 While a small select number of glaciers are expanding, the vast majority are rapidly melting. Some smaller rivers are fed exclusively by glacial melt, and could dry up in as few as 50 years. This naturally would affect downstream hydropower, not to mention the water supply of communities along such rivers.

188 Schifrin, Nick. (2011) In the Indian Himalayas, you can hear climate change before you can see it. ABC News. Retrieved from http://abcnews.go.com/print?id=5540526. 189 Ives, M. (2011). Ibid. 190 Shrestha, Arun and Raju Aryal. (17 Nov. 2010). and its impact on Himalayan Glaciers. Regional Environmental Change. 11: S68. 191 Immerzeel, W.. L. Van Beek and M. Bierkens. (2010) Climate change will affect the Asian water towers. Science . 328:5984. Retrieved from http://www.sciencemag.org/content/328/5984/1382.full. 192 Wirsing, R. (2011). Perilous : The changing context of river rivalry in south Asia. The Whitehead Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations, 12(1), 39.

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Effects on human livelihood

Scientists predict that Southeast Asia will be one of the “hardest hit” areas of climate change.193 Many areas of Southeast Asia have high population density and a shortage of land.194 Almost 50 percent of the world’s population resides in areas affected by the monsoon cycle, so changes in this climactic pattern have implications for half of the globe’s population.195 Much of the productive agricultural areas of Asia lie within the tropics and sub-tropics where agricultural productivity is predicted to decrease due to climate change, making food shortage a threat.196 The lack of reliable electricity in many nations is the single greatest impediment to attracting companies that have the potential to enrich the region, meaning that developing Asian nations need reliable electricity supply to foster . Yet, in a Catch-22, these same nations need more money in order to build the infrastructure that could supply reliable electricity. Thus, hydropower’s growing unreliability with climate change threatens Asia’s economy. Beyond creating electricity and spurring investment, the rivers of Asia are the lifeblood of many communities. The lower Mekong River alone supports the livelihood of over 60 million people.197 By 2025, the lower Mekong basin is predicted to have a population of over 90 million people,198 a population which will tax both the food and water resources of the region. The dams also prevent the rich silt that the river carries from being deposited on agricultural fields and thereby replenishing the .199 The Mekong delta also creates an immensely fertile rice-growing area in Vietnam, which both dams and climate change threaten to disturb, with implications for regional food security.200 The Mekong River example highlights many of the impediments to hydropower development in Asia. The Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, , and Yellow provide the water for over 1.4 billion people, and all of these rivers are threatened by climate change.201 These changes affect not only the viability of hydropower, but the sustainability of human populations. The floods, droughts, glacial melt and erratic monsoon cycle will endanger hydropower generation, but more significantly they also threaten human livelihoods in many areas of Asia.

193 Ibid. 194 Hay, J. (2006). Ibid. 195 Weakened monsoon season predicted for South Asia, due to rising temperatures. (2009). Ibid. 196 Wirsing, R. (2011). Ibid. 197 Ives, M. (2011). Ibid. 198 BBC monitoring international reports. (2010). Ibid. 199 Ives, M. (2011). Ibid. 200 Fuller, T. (2009). Ibid. 201 Immerzeel, W. (2010). Ibid.

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Middle East

Magnitude of dependence on hydropower

Figure 27: Hydropower dependence in the Middle East. Percent of total installed capacity dedicated to hydropower. Data: US Energy Administration, 2008.

In 2011 32 percent of all electrical generation in Turkey came from hydroelectric sources.202 With a total installed capacity of about 13,700 MW,203 Turkey maintains the largest amount of operational hydropower facilities in the Middle East and is currently in the construction phase of an extensive hydroelectric development in the Southeastern Project (GAP). The GAP is one of the largest development projects of its kind with a total installed capacity of 7476 MW.204 Comprising a series of 19 hydroelectric dams, the

202 Yuksel, I. (2011). Water development for hydroelectric in Southeastern Anatolia Projects (GAP) in Turkey. Renewable Energy, 39 (1), 17. 203 Ibid 204 Ibid

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project looks to exploit 5304 MW from the River Basin and another 2172 MW from the Tigris.205

Downstream, the majority of ’s 8,200 MWs206 of hydroelectric development is concentrated on the Euphrates River. Meanwhile, although is home to the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers, decreased hydrological flow and decades of war have crippled much of the nation’s hydroelectric projects. While the Tigris and Euphrates river basins hold the majority of hydroelectric capacity in the region, Iran contains multiple basins fed by the Zargos Mountain Range with respectable hydroelectric potential of 2000 MW.

Type and distribution of hydropower

The Middle East’s surface hydrology is primarily defined by the Tigris-Euphrates River Basin, which boasts a mean annual streamflow of 85 billion cubic meters (BCM).207 While the next greatest Middle Eastern river system pales in comparison, other countries maintain and/or are planning additional hydroelectric development within different watersheds.

Originating in Turkey, the Tigris River briefly flows on the border with Syria before it passes into Iraq and continues to its final destination in of the . While 77 percent of the river lies within Iraq, nearly half of the River’s 50 BCM of flow originates in Turkey.208 Nearby, the Euphrates River’s annual streamflow of 35 BCM also begins in Turkey. The Euphrates continues through Syria and finally joins the Tigris River in southeastern Iraq. A staggering 86 percent of flow is derived from surface runoff and snowmelt within Turkey.209 Meanwhile, the downstream nations of Syria and Iraq are dependent on steady stream flow from Turkey with 24 percent and 35 percent of the Euphrates’ length within their boundaries, respectively.210 The majority of current hydroelectric development has been focused at the Tigris and Euphrates’ headwaters, which lie within the boundaries of Turkey. Most hydroelectric projects on these rivers are large scale reservoir dams. While run-of-river and smaller scale hydroelectric projects exist in the basins, these dam facilities generate electricity pursuant of upstream reservoir dam outflow. In these regulated systems, run-of-river and smaller scale reservoir dams produce electricity similar to upstream facilities as the large scale reservoir dams may serve as indirect reservoirs for smaller downstream projects.

205 Ibid. 206 Daly, John C.K. (2011). Syria’s water and energy needs. Assyrian International News Agency. 207 Cullen, H.M., Kaplan, A., Arkin, P.A., & deMenocal, P.B. (2002). Impact of the North Atlantic oscillation on Middle Eastern climate and streamflow. Climate Change, 55 (3), 315-338. 208 Ibid. 209 Ibid. 210 Ibid.

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Outside of the Tigris-Euphrates System, the remaining hydroelectric development in the Middle East is concentrated within Iran. The Zargos Mountain Range maintains a climate of considerable precipitation, which provides various river basins with snowmelt and surface runoff which facilitate powerful streamflow.

Future hydropower development

Due to Turkey’s control of the Tigris and Euphrates headwaters, few other nations within the region are planning hydroelectric development. While Turkey continues to develop hydroelectric facilities in respect to GAP, outside the Tigris and Euphrates river basins, Iran is in the development stage of thousands of additional MWs within the Zagos mountains region.

Climate change impacts and implications for hydropower

The Middle East lies in a transition zone between the temperate, wet climate of and the arid climate of . With the desert environments of the to the south, and the wet mountainous regions of Turkey and Iran to the north and east, even small shifts in climatic patterns are likely to have tremendous impacts on the region’s climate.211 Additionally, a Mediterranean climate characterizes much of the remaining region between the dry south and the wet northeast.212

The Middle East’s climatic variations are in large part due to the North Atlantic Oscillation Pattern (NAO). The NAO regulates heat and moisture fluxes in the Mediterranean Region and ultimately influences climate patterns throughout the Middle East.213 Over the past 150 years, this climatic pattern has provided the Mediterranean and Middle East with much of its precipitation in the form of wet winters.214 The NAO transports winter cyclones to the area, and large amounts of precipitation with them. In a 2002 study of the NAO, Cullen et al. note that increased gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere will significantly impact the regional precipitation patterns that are controlled by the NAO. Specifically, “December through March precipitation and streamflow can be expected to be lower”215 due to climate change. As the NAO is a significant contributor to snow

211 Giorgi, F. (2008). Increased aridity in the Mediterranean region under greenhouse has forcing estimated from high resolution simulations with a regional climate model. Planetary Change,62 (3-4), 195-209. 212 Evans, J. (2010). Ibid. 213 Turkes, M. (1996) Spatial and temporal analysis of annual rainfall variations in Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 16(9), 1057-1076. 214 Hurrell, J.W. (1995). Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: Regional temperatures and precipitation. Science, 269 (5224), 676-679. 215 Cullen et al. (2011). Ibid.

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accumulation, the ultimate sources of both the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers, climate change will have a major impact on region’s flow rates.216

This trend is further corroborated with A2 and B2 IPCC emission scenarios and the ICTP RegCM climate model which state that “by the end of the 21st century the Mediterranean region might experience a substantial increase and northward extension of arid regime .”217 This threatens to increase in downstream states. Climate scientists are predicting these changes with increased certainty, claiming that “the Mediterranean is an area of the globe where climate change projections are most consistent across models and scenarios.”218 More specifically, regional models predict that the (Israel, Lebanon, Syria, and ) will be most affected by climate change. These models project a decrease in precipitation along with an increase in surface temperature.219 Consequently, climate models of a 2008 study predicted a 25 percent decrease of precipitation in the upper Jordan River catchment and other zones in the Levant220due to the combination of decreased precipitation and increased evaporation.

While the majority of climate models predict a decrease in precipitation for the majority of the Middle East, there is also a consensus that precipitation will increase in some areas within the region.221 A 2008 study using the MM5 climate model (CCSM3), predicted increases in precipitation over the Saudi desert and the Zagros Mountain regions in all seasons except summer.222 While the Arabian Peninsula will still maintain limited potential for hydroelectric development due to a dearth of rivers, the predicted increase of precipitation in the mountainous regions of Iran will increase flow averages in the Karun River basin among other regional watersheds.

Climate change poses some evident threats to the Turkey’s due to its significant investment in hydropower. Current climate predictions indicate less precipitation and higher mean temperatures resulting in less flow in the region.223 Although decreases in flow fundamentally impact Turkey’s hydropower potential, the region’s hilly makes it “possible to develop relatively higher heads

216 Sowers, J., Vengosh, A., & Weinthal, E.. (2011). Climate change, water resources, and the politics of adaption in the Middle East and North Africa. Climate Change, 104:599-627. 217Giorgi, F. (2008). Ibid. 218 Ibid. 219 Sowers et al. (2011). Ibid. 220 Ibid. 221 Evans, J. (2010). Global warming impact on the dominant precipitation processes in the Middle East. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 99(3), 389-402. 222 Ibid. 223 Fujihara, Y., Tanaka, K., Watanabe, T., Nagano, T., & Kojiri, T. (2008). Assessing the impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Seyhan river Basin in Turkey: Use of dynamically downscaled data for hydrologic simulations. Journal of Hydrology, 353(1-2), 33-48.

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without expensive civil engineering works, so that relatively smaller flows are required to develop the desired power.”224 Therefore, the regions advantageous landscape allows for the exploitation of relatively low flow rates. This may help buffer some of climate change’s impacts on Turkey’s hydroelectric dams. In addition, Turkey’s control of the Tigris and Euphrates’ headwaters puts it at an advantage compared to the rest of the region. With the lion’s share of the region’s hydroelectric resources, Turkey has the ability to withhold higher percentages of total flow in reservoirs to offset lower average flow rates downstream. Turkey’s diverse hydroelectric network also has the potential to mitigate changing streamflow patterns induced by climate change. Yurek notes that, “Turkey has huge storage capacity in dams and it can function as the storage and buffer for smaller units without storage. Thus, all electricity produced by hydro plants, small or large and with or without storage, should be classified as firm energy.”225 While climate change’s effects on Turkey may be partially mitigated, other countries downstream in the Tigris and Euphrates systems may not fare as well.

Turkey’s influence on downstream flow is exemplified by the 2400 MW Arturk Dam (GAP) which cut downstream flow of the Euphrates by a third.226 The majority of Syria’s 8200 MW227 of hydroelectric development is concentrated on the Euphrates, thus this decrease in flow has been detrimental to Syrian hydroelectric facilities. Many dams including the 880 MW have “underachieved” due to lower than expected flow rates.228 Further downstream, Iraq is even more adversely affected by flow disruption to the north. Due to the compounding impacts of increased hydroelectric development and below average precipitation in headwater regions of the Tigris, Iraq’s largest hydroelectric facility, the , was shut down in the winter of 2011.229 “It is the first time since 1984 when the dam was built that water levels have fallen this low” the advisor to the electricity minister of Iraq said. The advisor also noted that Iraq’s 660 MW Dam on the Euphrates was operating at less than 50 percent capacity.230

While most of the Middle East stands to lose precipitation in climate change projections, increased precipitation in the Iranian mountains may translate to increased flow and increased hydroelectric potential.

224 Yüksek, Ö. (2008). Reevaluation of Turkey's hydropower potential and electric energy demand. Energy Policy, 36(9), 3374-3382. 225 Ibid. 226 Daly, J. (2011). Ibid. 227 Daly, J. (2011). Ibid. 228 Daly, J. (2011). Ibid. 229 Farugi, A. (2011). No hydropower from Iraq’s Mosul dam. Iraq Daily Times. Retrieved from http://iraqdailytimes.com/no-hydropower-from-iraqs-mosul-dam-official/. 230 Ibid.

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Effects on human livelihood

As current flow on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers has been obstructed by increasing hydroelectric development and climate derived reductions in rainfall, downstream countries prove to be at the highest risk. While Turkey may be able to withstand limited precipitation, Syria and more specifically Iraq face very grim projections with drier, hotter climates, and reduced flow from Turkey’s usage. Climate projections and increased rainfall in the Zargos Mountain range may lead to increased hydroelectric potential in Iran. Other countries within the region, specifically on the Arabian Peninsula, are not particularly vulnerable as hydroelectric generation capacity is insignificant in their overall electrical generation portfolio.

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Africa

Magnitude of dependence on hydropower

Figure 28: African hydropower dependence. Percent of total installed capacity dedicated to hydropower. Data: US Energy Administration, 2008.

Africa is heavily dependent on hydropower. Continent level energy statistics tend to conceal this due to the fact that “South Africa's 42 GW accounts for around 40 percent of total African capacity and 90 percent of the country's capacity is coal fired.”231 However, country level data reveal a different story, with some nations boasting over 90 percent of installed electricity capacity derived from hydropower (Figure 28).232 Due to the dearth of water resources in northern Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to the majority of the continent’s hydroelectric dams. Most of the generating capacity is concentrated on the

231 Neil Ford. (2007). Power pools present best hope for renewed foreign interest in African power sector. Energy Economist, 305, 12. 232 U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2011c). Ibid.

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continent’s major rivers, the , the Congo, and the Zambezi. However, smaller basins such as the Volta also contain a number of hydroelectric dams.233 The development of markets like the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) and the growing influence of neoliberal ideas have driven a surge in hydroelectric development in Africa, much of it internationally funded.234 Indeed, “The amount of hydropower under construction in Africa jumped 53 percent from 2004 to last year [2006]”, according to the Hydropower & Dams World Atlas and Industry Guide, an industry reference journal.235

Future Hydropower Development

While hydropower already plays a dominant role in Africa’s electricity portfolio, there are extensive plans for additional hydroelectric development throughout Africa. In 2009, the estimated that only 5 percent of the Africa’s hydroelectric potential was being harnessed.236 Thus, large projects are planned and under construction in a number of nations including Ethiopia, Uganda, Zambia, Mozabique and Liberia.237 A number of new dams have recently been completed in Ethiopia, part of an ongoing period of growth that makes the nation the largest electricity generator on the continent after South Africa; jumping from 745 MW (2006) to 10GW (projected for 2016) over ten years.238 No discussion of hydropower in Africa is complete without mentioning the proposed Grand Inga Dam in the Democratic Republic of Congo. This massive dam would be the world’s largest energy generation project, with an estimated capacity of 39GW.239 The enormous power potential at Grand Inga has led to discussions of constructing a continent spanning electricity grid that could provide power to all Africans and provide some electricity to Europe and the Middle East.240 However, numerous environmental, engineering, and social concerns have hampered Grand Inga’s development. While feasibility studies are continually being conducted, only time will tell if the enormous plans are realized.241

233 Waylen, P. (2008). Ibid. 234 Showers, K. B. (2009). Congo River’s grand Inga hydroelectricity scheme: linking environmental history, policy and impact. Water History, 1. 235 Wachter, S. (2007). Tapping energy for Africa's transformation the revival of hydroelectric projects has drawn fans, and critics. International Herald Tribune, 12. 236 Sharife, K. (2009). Damnation for Africa's big dams? African Business, (352), 52. 237 Ibid.; Basson, G. (2004). Hydropower dams and fluvial morphological impacts-an african perspective. Paper presented at the Retrieved from http://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/sdissues/energy/op/hydro_basson_paper.pdf. 238 Ethiopia leads Africa's hydro renaissance. African Business 2011. 239 Ibid. 240 Wachter, S. (2007). Ibid.; Showers, K.B. (2009). Ibid. 241 Showers, K.B. (2009). Ibid.

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Type and distribution of hydropower

While large dams generate the majority of Africa’s hydroelectricity, there are some smaller projects as well. In general, the power from smaller dams is distributed to household use, where the power from larger dams tends to go to mining and other industries.242 Small scale hydro has been far less explored than large projects.243 This is likely due to the preference of foreign investors for larger projects with larger capital returns. Africa’s dams include a mix of run-of-river and reservoir dams, and both types are often found in the same basin.244 Overall, pumped storage has received a poor reputation in the African press due to a misunderstanding of its efficiency, but there are plans to develop pumped storage in South Africa.245

Implications of climate change impacts for hydropower

Climate is already a major factor in African hydroelectric production. Recurring droughts have plagued hydroelectric dams and led to power rationing across the continent. In the past decade, from Ghana to Kenya, Zimbabwe, and Tanzania, droughts have disrupted generation, sometimes reducing plants to half of their capacity.246 However, already seasonable and variable rainfall will only become more stochastic with the onset of global climate change.247 This threatens to create even more frequent power shortages. There is concern that climactic impacts will be so great that they will provide a disincentive to foreign investment in new dams, however the current rush to build indicates that this is not a concern yet.248

Differences in temperature and rainfall are projected to be the two biggest impacts of climate change in Africa (but these can also increase evaporation, a crucial consideration for reservoirs).249 The rainfall changes will also be different for different , which raises questions for regional planning and power distribution.250 While some regions will likely receive more rainfall and thus increased river flows, there is uncertainty regarding

242 Sharife, K. (2009). Ibid. 243 Basson, G. (2004). Ibid. 244 Yamba, F. D., Walimwipi, H., Jain, S., Zhou, P., Cuamba, B., & Mzezewa, C. (2011). Climate change/variability implications on hydroelectricity generation in the Zambezi River Basin Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 16(6), 617-628. 245 "Ethiopia leads Africa's hydro renaissance." African Business June 2011: 56. General OneFile. Web. 25 Oct. 2011. 246 Mukheibir, P. (2007). Ibid.; Waylen, P. (2008). Ibid. 247 Mukheibir, P. (2007). Ibid. 248 Harrison and Whittington. (2002). Ibid. 249 Mukheibir, P. (2007). Ibid. 250 Ibid.

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the consistency of this increase.251 Thus it could lead to generally increased flow and power production, or it could lead to more extreme rain events and unexpected flooding. There is potential for conflict due to competing uses of water (drinking, irrigation, etc), which will only be amplified by the impacts of climate change.252

The Congo River Basin is projected to receive both increased rainfall and temperatures, but minimum evaporative reductions to generating capacity due to the humidity of the region and the dearth of reservoir dams (though there are several large run-of-river stations in this area).253 Other regions face more striking predictions, “Climate models predict an average 10-20 percent decline in rainfall, resulting in the rivers of Botswana and Tunisia completely drying up. The high-risk regions include the east-west bands stretching from Senegal to .”254 Harrison and Whittington’s analysis of IPCC reports for the Zambezi River Basin indicate increased precipitation in future rainy seasons (January-July), and even drier dry seasons (August-December).255 They also note that “Simulations indicate that for all scenarios annual flow levels at Victoria Falls reduce between 10 and 35.5 percent. In each case the resultant flow change is greater than the precipitation change, confirming the amplifying effect of the hydrology.”256

Yamba, et al. conducted a fairly comprehensive study of projected climate change impacts on hydroelectric generation in the Zambezi River Basin. These authors paired hydrologic modeling, based on historical data, with projected climate changes to reveal general trends for the basin and more specific changes for each dam site.257 Their findings indicate a gradual overall reduction in generation capacity over the next 60 years.258 However this reduction is only gradual in light of this time scale, as Yamba et al. predict both severely dry years, and potential flooding events.259 Thus extreme variability must be planned for through strategic management of flows between dams in the basin to maximize generation.260

251 Ibid. 252 Lein, H. (2004). Managing the water of kilimanjaro: Water, peasants, and hydropower development. GeoJournal, 61(2), 155-162. 253 Mukheibir, P. (2007). Ibid. 254 Sharife, K. (2009). Ibid. 255 Harrison and Whittington. (2002). Ibid. 256 Ibid. 257 Yamba, et al. (2011). Ibid. 258 Ibid. 259 Ibid. 260 Ibid.

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In a similar study, Beyene, et al. predict that climate change will increase temperature and precipitation for the Nile River Basin.261 Streamflow and power production at the Aswan High Dam are projected to increase in the early 21st century due to more significant precipitation increases relative to temperature increases.262 However, in the latter half of the 21st century, precipitation is expected to decrease, while temperatures continue to rise, increasing evaporation in both Lake Victoria and the Lake Nasser (the Aswan High Dam’s reservoir).263

Effects on human livelihood

As recent droughts have already illustrated, Africa’s dependence on hydropower has already made much of the continent’s power vulnerable to weather irregularities.264 Such inconsistent power is economically detrimental. It is important to note that Africa’s current hydropower resources generally power industry, not households, thus dams must not be equated with popular .265 Indeed, the link between climate change’s impact on hydropower production and human livelihood is only relevant in so far as the benefits currently provided by dams contribute to human livelihood, which is a debatable fact in its own right. Despite the massive amounts of electricity produced by dams in Mozambique and the DRC, fewer than 9 percent and 6 percent of their populations have access to electricity respectively.266 It appears that distribution of electricity is a larger threat to human livelihood than climate change, or at least an issue that must be addressed first.

261 Beyene, T. (2010). Hydrologic impacts of climate change on the Nile river basin: Implications of the 2007 IPCC climate scenarios. Climatic Change, 100, 3-4. 262 Ibid. 263 Ibid. 264 Sharife, K. (2009). Ibid. 265 Ibid. 266 Ibid.

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Beyond our Framework in the Mekong River Basin Climate change is not the only factor which impacts hydropower generation. Land and water use practices also impact hydropower vulnerability. The cumulative impact of the 130 dam projects drastically affects the overall flow of the Mekong River. So, while our framework shows specifically how climate changes impacts hydropower, it is necessary to also consider what other factors impact the vulnerability of hydropower for any given Ships sailing along the Mekong River near Three river. In April of 2010 a drought plagued Gorges Dam in China. Credit: World Fund South Asia and the Mekong River shrunk to its narrowest width in 50 years, drying up rice fields and fisheries.267 Many downstream nations suspected that the Chinese dams along the river exacerbated the effects of this devastating drought.268 The lower Mekong River supports the livelihood of over 60 million, and this population is growing rapidly.269 This event begs the question, what is the cost of meeting South Asia’s electricity demands with hydropower? Currently, the region hopes to use hydropower generation to supply its increasing demand for reliable electricity;270 but the future quality of for millions of people is reliant on the resilience of the Mekong River.

267 Wheatley (2010). Ibid. 268 Ibid. 269 Ives, M. 2011. (Ibid). 270 Hydropower on the Mekong: Might not give a dam. (1 May 2011). The Economist. Retrieved from http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2011/05/hydropower_mekong.

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6. CONCLUSIONS

In developed regions of the world such as North America and Western Europe, there is little interest in building new large-scale hydroelectric dams. However, developing regions of the world—Asia, Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East—are making large investments to increase the role of hydropower production in their energy portfolios. In these regions, hydropower is often seen as a low-emission energy source that can meet the growing energy demands of developing nations. There are a variety of types and scales of hydropower facilities, each one with their own vulnerabilities to climate change. While large-scale reservoir dams are able to regulate more specifically when they generate electricity and how much electricity they produce, altering the flow of any given river yields significant hydrological consequences. There is a huge disparity in nation’s reliance on hydropower, and each nation will have to carefully consider how climate change will impact hydropower production to determine what role, if any, hydropower should play in their energy futures.

Certain areas of the globe are becoming increasingly susceptible to hydrological transformations caused by climate change. Changes in evaporation rates, annual river discharge amounts, seasonal and temporal offsets of hydrological patterns, extreme precipitation events, and increased glacial melt are the most pertinent climate change effects that will impact hydroelectric generation. It is necessary to remember that these impacts all affect each other and cannot solely be viewed in isolation. Some of these changes will cause an increase of hydropower generation, while others have the potential to decrease generation. Amidst these many impacts, increased volatility and variability in water supply will increase with climate change. This is detrimental to hydroelectric generation because to generate electricity reliably, a hydropower facility requires a relatively reliable water source. Additionally, differing climate scenarios and the uncertainty inherent to modeling future trends all make it very difficult to determine the precise effect climate change will have on hydroelectric production. However, even with this uncertainty, we still need to plan for the world’s future energy demands.

The framework we constructed shows how vulnerable any given hydropower facility is to certain climate change effects. Changes in future electric production depend not only on the type and severity of climate alterations, but also on the facility’s structural characteristics. By consulting the provided maps and framework, ISciences and decision-makers can acquire a basic understanding of how climate change may impact certain areas, and which types of hydropower facilities are least vulnerable to said effects. As this framework is designed only to provide an initial evaluation of global conditions, more intensive site- specific research is necessary on a case-by-case basis. It is imperative to understand how

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climate change will impact hydroelectric production if we hope to meet some of the world’s growing energy demands with hydropower. While hydropower is often developed as a means of generating electricity that reduces emissions that contribute to climate change, we must also account for how climate change will impact these facilities.

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