Hydropower Vulnerability and Climate Change A Framework for Modeling the Future of Global Hydroelectric Resources Ben Blackshear ∙ Tom Crocker ∙ Emma Drucker ∙ John Filoon ∙ Jak Knelman ∙ Michaela Skiles Middlebury College Environmental Studies Senior Seminar Fall 2011 TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................................................. iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ..................................................................................................................................... v 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................ 1 Study Objectives and Methodology ........................................................................................................... 3 2. TYPOLOGY OF HYDROPOWER SCHEMES ............................................................................................... 6 Pumped storage ................................................................................................................................................ 7 Reservoir .............................................................................................................................................................. 8 Run-of-river ........................................................................................................................................................ 9 3. CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS PERTINENT TO HYDROPOWER .................................................... 11 Change in precipitation ........................................................................................................................... 12 Change in temperature ........................................................................................................................... 13 Change in specific humidity .................................................................................................................. 14 Change in stream flow ............................................................................................................................. 15 Glaciation ...................................................................................................................................................... 16 4. ILLUSTRATED FRAMEWORK OF CLIMATE CHANGE AS IT AFFECTS HYDROPOWER PRODUCTION....................................................................................................................................................... 18 Definitions of variables included in our illustrated framework .................................................. 21 Evaporation ................................................................................................................................................. 21 Discharge ...................................................................................................................................................... 21 Temporal variability ................................................................................................................................ 21 Flooding ........................................................................................................................................................ 22 Droughts ....................................................................................................................................................... 22 Seasonal offset ............................................................................................................................................ 23 Glacial melt .................................................................................................................................................. 23 5. REGIONAL FINDINGS ................................................................................................................................... 24 North America ................................................................................................................................................. 25 Europe ................................................................................................................................................................ 32 ii South America ................................................................................................................................................. 39 Oceania .............................................................................................................................................................. 46 Asia ...................................................................................................................................................................... 51 Middle East ....................................................................................................................................................... 57 Africa .................................................................................................................................................................. 63 6. CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................................................................ 69 REFERENCES ....................................................................................................................................................... 71 iii ABSTRACT The main purpose of this study is to assess how climate change will impact global hydroelectric production. This assessment was carried out through an extensive literature review that investigated current trends in hydropower as well climate change effects predicted to influence hydroelectric production. The summarized results of this literature review are provided by region in this report. Our research indicated that climate change effects, especially alterations in evaporation, river discharge, temporal precipitation patterns, frequency of extreme meteorological events, and glacial melt rate, have the potential to induce appreciable change, both positive and negative, in hydroelectric production in every part of the world. We also found that the type and characteristics of a given hydropower facility play an important role in determining its vulnerability to these impacts. In this report, the comparative resiliencies of reservoir, run-of-river, and pumped storage facilities to the aforementioned important climate change effects are considered and represented in a framework. Decision-makers involved with hydropower development can use our framework in conjunction with the provided global climate change maps to acquire a basic understanding of how climate change will affect current or future hydropower infrastructure in all areas of the globe. We hope that these resources will allow decision-makers around the world to efficiently assess hydropower vulnerability caused by climate change impacts. iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Our group would like to thank Matt Landis, our community partner, for his professional guidance of our project. He helped us hone our project’s focus and provided us with fundamental assistance throughout the course of the semester. We would also like to thank our professors, Cat Ashcraft and Diane Munroe, for providing a great deal of constructive feedback on our report. The comments and suggestions that they offered throughout the semester have allowed our ideas to develop into a valuable project. Thanks to our classmates in ES401 for all the good times we have been able to share. You guys are lots of fun. v 1. INTRODUCTION Between 2007 and 2035, worldwide energy consumption is projected to double.1 Scientists predict that the global population will swell to over 10 billion by 2050.2 Our current population is already taxing current energy and water resources. These demands will grow with the global population. Developing countries’ water withdrawals are likely to increase 50 percent by 2025, while the withdrawal rates in developed countries are projected to increase roughly 18 percent.3 The next forty years promise to challenge energy and water resource management. Hydropower is one response to these challenges; in many areas of the world dams provide energy and regulate water supply. However, climate change will alter global hydropower production. Climate change impacts have the potential to make hydropower either more or less vulnerable. In areas where hydropower generation will decrease due to climate change impacts, entire nations may find themselves without a reliable source of electricity. Each region of the globe will face unique challenges as our climate changes. Floods, droughts, rapid glacial melt, increasing temperatures, and variability in the timing, location and amount of precipitation, are all symptoms of climate change that will affect hydroelectric generation by increasing water resources and hydropower potential in some regions and diminishing them in others. Though all nations are susceptible to the effects of global climate change, developing countries are inherently more vulnerable to the effects of climate change disruptions because they have fewer disposable resources to spend on unexpected extreme weather events and on adapting to long-term alterations. Changes in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns have profound effects on river systems. These impacts directly affect hydroelectric production. Rapidly