plants Article Predicting Impacts of Climate Change on Northward Range Expansion of Invasive Weeds in South Korea Sun Hee Hong 1,† , Yong Ho Lee 2,3,† , Gaeun Lee 2, Do-Hun Lee 4 and Pradeep Adhikari 2,* 1 School of Plant Science and Landscape Architecture, Hankyong National University, Anseong-si 17579, Gyeonggi-do, Korea;
[email protected] 2 Institute of Ecological Phytochemistry, Hankyong National University, Anseong-si 17579, Gyeonggi-do, Korea;
[email protected] (Y.H.L.);
[email protected] (G.L.) 3 OJeong Resilience Institute, Korea University, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 02841, Korea 4 National Institute of Ecology, Seocheon-gun 33657, Chungcheongnam-do, Korea;
[email protected] * Correspondence:
[email protected]; Tel.: +82-31-670-5087 † Contributed equally to this manuscript. Abstract: Predicting the distribution of invasive weeds under climate change is important for the early identification of areas that are susceptible to invasion and for the adoption of the best preventive measures. Here, we predicted the habitat suitability of 16 invasive weeds in response to climate change and land cover changes in South Korea using a maximum entropy modeling approach. Based on the predictions of the model, climate change is likely to increase habitat suitability. Currently, the area of moderately suitable and highly suitable habitats is estimated to be 8877.46 km2, and 990.29 km2, respectively, and these areas are expected to increase up to 496.52% by 2050 and 1439.65% by 2070 under the representative concentration pathways 4.5 scenario across the country. Although ◦ habitat suitability was estimated to be highest in the southern regions (<36 latitude), the central and northern regions are also predicted to have substantial increases in suitable habitat areas.