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An Updated Synthesis of the Impacts of Ocean Acidification on Marine Biodiversity 2 3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

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An Updated Synthesis of the Impacts of Ocean Acidification on Marine Biodiversity 2 3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS P a g e | 1 DRAFT FOR CBD PEER-REVIEW ONLY; NOT TO QUOTE; NOT TO CIRCULATE 1 An updated synthesis of the impacts of ocean acidification on marine biodiversity 2 3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ....................................................................................................... 3 4 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................................... 4 6 7 1. Background and introduction ............................................................................................... 8 8 1.1. Mandate of this review .......................................................................................................... 8 9 1.2. What is ocean acidification? ........................................................................................ 9 10 1.3. Re-visiting key knowledge gaps identified in the previous CBD review ................... 14 11 12 2. Scientific and policy framework ........................................................................................ 17 13 2.1. Steps towards global recognition and international science collaboration ................. 17 14 2.2. Intergovernmental interest in ocean acidification and actions to date ........................ 19 15 16 3. Global status and future trends of ocean acidification ....................................................... 23 17 3.1. Variability .................................................................................................................. 23 18 3.2. Modelled simulations of future ocean acidification ................................................... 25 19 3.3. Current status of global observations ......................................................................... 29 20 21 4. What the past can tell us – palaeo-oceanographic research ............................................... 32 22 4.1. Reconstructing past ocean acidification events .......................................................... 33 23 4.2. The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum – A natural past ‘experiment’ in ocean 24 acidification ................................................................................................................ 33 25 4.3. The impact of past ocean acidification upon calcifiers .............................................. 33 26 4.4. Using the geological record to inform our understanding of ocean acidification ...... 35 27 4.5. Timescales of ocean acidification ............................................................................... 36 28 29 5. Impact of ocean acidification on biodiversity and ecosystem function ............................. 38 30 5.1. Physiological responses ..................................................................................................... 38 31 5.1.1. Ocean acidification and cellular processes ...................................................... 38 32 5.1.2. Fertilisation, early life and settlement ............................................................. 41 33 5.1.2.1. Fertilization in benthic marine invertebrates ....................................... 41 34 5.1.3. Sensory capacity and behaviour ...................................................................... 46 35 5.1.4. Immune responses and disease ....................................................................... 48 36 5.2. Benthic communities ................................................................................................. 50 37 5.2.1. Coral Reefs....................................................................................................... 52 38 5.2.1.1. Cold-water corals (CWCs) .................................................................. 52 39 5.2.1.2. Tropical corals ..................................................................................... 54 40 5.2.2. Molluscs ................................................................................................................... 55 41 5.2.3. Echinoderms ................................................................................................... 56 42 5.2.4. Seagrass and macroalgae ......................................................................................... 57 43 5.3. Pelagic communities .................................................................................................. 61 44 5.3.1. Plankton .......................................................................................................... 61 45 5.3.1.1. Phytoplankton and bacteria .................................................................. 61 46 5.3.1.2. Zooplankton ........................................................................................ 63 47 5.3.2. Fish, squid and cuttlefish ................................................................................. 68 48 5.4. Impacts on ecosystem services, livelihoods and biogeochemistry ............................. 72 49 5.4.1. Impacts on ecosystem services ........................................................................ 72 P a g e | 2 DRAFT FOR CBD PEER-REVIEW ONLY; NOT TO QUOTE; NOT TO CIRCULATE 50 5.4.2. Economic/Livelihood impact ........................................................................... 74 51 5.4.2.1. Tropical coral reefs ............................................................................. 77 52 5.4.3. Projected impacts on ocean biogeochemical cycles ........................................ 77 53 5.4.3.1. Biological production........................................................................... 78 54 5.4.3.2. Remineralisation (breakdown) of particulate material................................ 78 55 56 6. Future considerations ......................................................................................................... 84 57 6.1. Resolving uncertainties ............................................................................................... 84 58 6.1.1. From individuals to ecosystems ....................................................................... 85 59 6.2. From laboratory to environment: importance of 'multiple stressor' experiments ....... 87 60 6.3. Advances in sensing, monitoring, and emerging technologies ................................... 90 61 62 7. Conclusions ........................................................................................................................ 92 63 64 65 P a g e | 3 DRAFT FOR CBD PEER-REVIEW ONLY; NOT TO QUOTE; NOT TO CIRCULATE 66 Acknowledgements 67 68 [To be provided later] 69 Coordinating lead authors: 70 Sebastian Hennige, Murray Roberts and Phillip Williamson 71 72 Lead authors: 73 Sebastian Hennige, Murray Roberts, Phillip Williamson, Tracy Aze, James Barry, Richard Bellerby, 74 Luke Brander, Maria Byrne, Jean-Pierre Gattuso, Samantha Gibbs, Lina Hansson, Caroline Hattam, 75 Chris Hauton, Jon Havenhand, Jan Helge Fosså, Christopher Kavanagh, Haruko Kurihara, Richard 76 Matear, Felix Mark, Frank Melzner, Philip Munday, Barbara Niehoff, Paul Pearson, Katrin Rehdanz, 77 Sylvie Tambutté, Carol Turley, Alexander Venn, Michel Warnau and Jeremy Young 78 79 Reviewers: 80 Rob Dunbar, Richard Feely, Cliff Law, Rashid Sumaila, Shirayama Yoshihisa 81 P a g e | 4 DRAFT FOR CBD PEER-REVIEW ONLY; NOT TO QUOTE; NOT TO CIRCULATE 82 Executive summary 83 84 1. Ocean acidification has increased by ~ 30% since pre-industrial times 85 Since pre-industrial times it is estimated that the oceans have absorbed at least a quarter of the 86 carbon dioxide released by human activity. It now seems inevitable that within 50-100 years, 87 anthropogenic carbon dioxide will increase ocean acidity such that by the end of the 21st 88 century, seawater acidity is predicted to reach levels that may reduce the growth rates of 89 marine calcifying organisms, or even cause their shells and skeletons to dissolve. This is 90 because carbon dioxide dissolution directly alters the carbonate chemistry of seawater and 91 reduces the availability of ions needed to form shells and skeletons. 92 93 Current awareness 94 2. International awareness of ocean acidification and its potential consequences is 95 increasing. 96 Many international research consortia are now investigating potential impacts of ocean 97 acidification upon marine biodiversity and global human welfare. Among the marine 98 calcifying organisms believed to be under most threat are commercial shellfish fisheries, 99 calcifying algae that are important in biogeochemical cycling, and coral reefs both in the 100 tropics and cold-water. It is estimated that the livelihoods of over 400 million people depend 101 upon tropical coral reefs. Understanding how changing ocean chemistry will impact upon 102 these key ecosystems is therefore of great importance. 103 104 Global status and future trends of ocean acidification 105 3. Substantial natural seasonal and diurnal variability exists in seawater pH 106 This variability varies greatly between habitats, with coastal habitats experiencing greater 107 variability than open oceans due to biological processes within relatively small areas. 108 109 4. High latitude oceans will feel the effects of ocean acidification sooner than temperate or 110 tropical regions 111 Regions at high latitudes are expected to be undersaturated with respect to aragonite (one 112 form of calcium carbonate used by many calcifiers in their skeletons and shells) by the end of 113 the century 114 115 5. Ocean acidification monitoring networks are growing 116 This is crucial to understand current variability and to monitor ocean acidification rates at key
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