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Rocky Mountain Research Station Science You Can Use Bulletin United States Department of Agriculture Rocky Mountain Research Station Science You Can Use Bulletin NOVEMBER 2020 | Issue 44 Know Your Smoke: Updated Smoke Modeling Tool Estimates Higher Particulate Emissions From Wildfire Than Previously Predicted When smoke from a large wildfire blows into a Understanding potential smoke impacts from community, daylight can blur into dusk and air fire, either wildfire or prescribed, is of increasing quality can plummet, triggering a surge in emergency importance for fire and land managers, public room visits for people suffering from asthma and health officials, and air quality regulators. However, other respiratory conditions. Additionally, smoke can the complexity of smoke emissions makes accurate create visibility problems on roadways, including the emissions projections using computer modeling formation of “superfog,” a combination of smoke and challenging. Emissions from fires vary with dense fog that has resulted in numerous fatal vehicle combustion efficiency (the fraction of carbon released accidents over the past few decades. as carbon dioxide [CO2]), which itself varies by Communities must often contend with smoke from wildfires. The Rice Ridge Fire in Seeley Lake, Montana, 2017. Credit: Kurt Wilson, Missoulian (verbal permission). 1 Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station Science You Can Use Bulletin November 2020 | Issue 44 SUMMARY that particulate matter emissions by wildfires may be twice that Reliable predictions of emissions from wildland fires are a key element of smoke reported to the U.S. Environmental management programs. Emission factors (the amount of pollutants produced Protection Agency’s 2017 National per amount of fuel consumed) are used in models to estimate the composition of Emission Inventory (NEI). Likewise, smoke. Over the past two decades, laboratory and field studies have made great progress in characterizing the chemical composition of smoke and quantifying particulate emissions from emission factors. However, until recently, the widely used First Order Fire Effects prescribed fires in heavy fuels are Model (FOFEM) did not incorporate these advances in smoke science. A recent likely to be substantially higher Rocky Mountain Research Station project reviewed and synthesized wildland fire than those reported in the NEI. emission data from over 40 studies to create an updated, comprehensive database of emission factors. The updated emission factor database provides emission factors for nearly 200 gaseous and particulate pollutants emitted by wildland fires. “FOFEM and a lot of the other The emission factor database has been integrated into the most recent version of models that land managers have FOFEM,. The updated emission factors indicate that the particulate emissions from wildfire and prescribed fire are substantially higher than previous estimates before been using to predict the amount the update. However, it is not that fires are producing more emissions—just more of pollutants emitted by fires and than we previously realized. to try to estimate smoke impacts on local communities were really ecosystem conditions, such as fuel Lutes, a fire ecologist with the 20 years behind in keeping up with type and fuel moisture, and fire RMRS Fire Modeling Institute at the science,” said Urbanski. “They type and intensity. the Missoula Fire Lab, led the didn’t include emission factors that integration of the updated emission properly represented the amount Enter Rocky Mountain Research factors into the most recent version of pollutants that are produced Station fire science specialists of the First Order Fire Effects for different fire types, and they Shawn Urbanski and Duncan Lutes. Model (FOFEM), a computer model also didn’t include many hundreds for predicting tree mortality, fuel of pollutants that are known to Urbanski, a research physical consumption, smoke production, be in wildfire smoke that we’ve scientist with the Rocky Mountain and soil heating caused by discovered and quantified over the Research Station (RMRS) Fire, Fuel, prescribed fire or wildfire. FOFEM past 15 to 20 years of research.” and Smoke Program, conducted is used by fire managers to estimate a comprehensive synthesis of smoke for regional haze estimates The improved pollutant emission wildland fire emission data from and for localized impacts such as factors that have been implemented over 40 published studies (a roadway visibility. in FOFEM will enable land combination of laboratory and managers and air regulators to field measurements) to create The revision is significant more accurately predict emissions an updated database of emission because the updated emission and mitigate the adverse impacts of factors. Emission factors quantify factors indicate that older smoke on the public. the relative abundances of versions of FOFEM substantially pollutants present in fresh smoke. underestimated particulate Is Air Quality a Barrier to This updated database provides matter emissions from certain Prescribed Fire? emission factors for nearly 200 fire types, in particular western Smoke management concerns are gaseous and particulate pollutants wildfires. The updated particulate among the top impediments to emitted by wildland fires and emission factors, which subsequent prescribed burning. While nuisance is particularly useful for fire independent field studies smoke is the most common issue, managers and air regulators. confirmed (Liu et al. 2017), indicate prescribed fires can subject 2 Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station Science You Can Use Bulletin November 2020 | Issue 44 local communities and sensitive they’re producing more particulate populations to unhealthy pollutant matter,” said Urbanski. “But the levels. Since wildland fires produce reality is we were always producing “When it comes to pollutants regulated under the that much all along but not smoke, the concern federal Clean Air Act, prescribed accounting for it.” burning can present substantial for everyone—air regulatory challenges by triggering Urbanski said he’s heard from land regulators and the violations of air quality standards, managers who say that FOFEM public—is, how bad especially in areas that are in and some of the other models don’t is bad? How long is it “nonattainment” with air quality always predict as much smoke standards. from the smoldering phase as is going to last? That’s later observed. They have seen all they really want to Urbanski and Lutes are aware that significant smoke production, know.” air quality is often seen as a barrier especially smoldering during the to conducting more prescribed night. —Scott Williams burning, and their finding of fire management specialist the presence of considerably “That’s when they get smoke more particulate matter in intrusions into local communities smoke emissions than previously and they get in trouble,” said emissions factors will help with estimated could be seen as another Urbanski. “So, they know they’re fire and land management over the factor limiting the ability to get producing too much. Situations like long term. prescribed fire on the ground. that are really important for land managers.” “Air quality and forest health “A lot of people looked at the new are joined at the hip rather than emissions factors as a negative Leland Tarnay, an ecologist with diametrically opposed,” said thing in that they wouldn’t be able the USDA Forest Service Region Tarnay. “There are narratives out to do perhaps as much prescribed 5 Remote Sensing Lab, also there that cast air quality only as an burning as they did before because believes that having more accurate obstacle to burning. Conversely the fires that we manage for resource objectives and the prescribed MANAGEMENT IMPLICATIONS fires that we do, those proactive strategies produce way less smoke ● The emission factor database has been integrated into the most recent version per day. Additionally, they produce First Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM) to provide land managers and air lesser impacts at regional scales regulators with more accurate estimates of pollutant emissions from fires. than these larger wildfires that ● The emission factor updates to FOFEM will allow land managers to estimate dump smoke from larger areas in emissions of hazardous air pollutants, which may be combined with ambient monitoring to assess fire fighter exposure. the air all at once.” ● The updated emissions factors can help predict “superfog” events in which particulate seed particles in a smoke plume interact with dense fog to form a Scott Williams, a fire management superfog wall with extremely reduced visibility (less than 10 feet), which can be specialist with the U.S. Forest deadly on roadways. Service Enterprise Program, uses ● With planned inclusion in the FlamMap fire behavior model, smoke production FOFEM to quantify smoke and can be modeled as fire spreads across a landscape at relatively high spatial greenhouse gas emissions as part resolution. Improved predictions of emissions from prescribed fires and wildfires will help estimate potential impacts on local communities. of the NEPA process for vegetation and fuels management projects in 3 Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station Science You Can Use Bulletin November 2020 | Issue 44 emission estimates in an example KEY FINDINGS interior ponderosa pine stand ● Emission factors for particulate matter and gaseous pollutants vary considerably with moderate fuel moisture. across fire types (prescribed vs. wild) and ecosystems (e.g., southern longleaf pine
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