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Panama Canal Expansion: Impact on U.S PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION: IMPACT ON U.S. AGRICULTURE Prepared for: UNITED SOYBEAN BOARD U.S. SOYBEAN EXPORT COUNCIL SOY TRANSPORTATION COALITION Prepared by: December 2011 775 Ridge Lake Boulevard, Suite 400 ~ Memphis, Tennessee 38120-9403 Telephone 901.202.4600 ~ Fax 901.766.4402 http://www.informaecon.com Panama Canal Expansion: Impact on U.S. Agriculture December 2011 This copyrighted material is intended for the use of clients of Informa Economics, Inc., only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Informa Economics, Inc. The information contained herein is believed to be reliable and the views expressed within this document reflect judgments at this time and are subject to change without notice. Informa Economics, Inc. does not guarantee that the information contained herein is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. © informa economics, inc. ii Panama Canal Expansion: Impact on U.S. Agriculture December 2011 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................. XI A. WORLD CLASS INFRASTRUCTURE AND ENGINEERING PROJECT ...................................................................................... XI B. CONTAINER OCEAN CARRIER MARKET/VESSEL GROWTH IS DRIVING DEVELOPMENT ....................................................... XII C. DEFINED SURPLUS AND DEFICIT AREAS, NATIONALLY AND INTERNATIONALLY ................................................................. XII D. PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION BENEFITS U.S. AGRICULTURE ........................................................................................ XIII E. U.S. PORTS ...................................................................................................................................................... XIV F. INTERNATIONAL DESTINATION PORTS .................................................................................................................... XIV G. U.S. GRAIN AND SOYBEAN EXPORT CAPACITY GROWTH ............................................................................................ XV H. INLAND INFRASTRUCTURE .................................................................................................................................... XV II. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................ 1 III. BASELINE ECONOMIC AND CROP EXPORT OUTLOOK .................................................................................... 3 A. MACRO-ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ............................................................................................................................... 3 B. BASELINE CROP ASSUMPTIONS ............................................................................................................................... 7 C. INFORMA CROP BALANCE SHEETS ............................................................................................................................ 8 D. COMMODITY PRICING ......................................................................................................................................... 15 E. GRAIN AND SOYBEAN EXPORTS BY PORT ................................................................................................................. 17 F. TIMING OF EXPORTS ........................................................................................................................................... 19 G. MAJOR IMPORTING COUNTRIES ............................................................................................................................ 22 H. GRAIN EXPORTS BY PORT TO MAJOR END USER ....................................................................................................... 28 IV. PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION PROJECT ....................................................................................................... 31 A. PANAMA CANAL TRANSIT STATISTICS ..................................................................................................................... 31 B. PANAMA CANAL TOLL REVENUES .......................................................................................................................... 38 C. IMPORTANCE OF PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION TO OCEAN FLEETS................................................................................. 43 D. REVIEW OF BOARD STRUCTURE OVERSEEING EXPANSION ........................................................................................... 45 E. KEY EXPANSION DESIGN ELEMENTS AND PROJECT PROGRESS ...................................................................................... 46 F. ESTIMATED PROJECT COSTS AND PLANS TO REPAY COSTS .......................................................................................... 53 G. CHALLENGES AND OBSTACLES GOING FORWARD ...................................................................................................... 55 V. PORT PROFILES ........................................................................................................................................... 57 A. U.S. PORT PROFILES ........................................................................................................................................... 57 B. ORGANIZATIONS AND PORT AUTHORITIES WITH MEMORANDUMS OF UNDERSTANDING (MOU) ....................................... 62 C. U.S. PORTS WITH MEMORANDUMS OF UNDERSTANDING WITH THE PANAMA CANAL AUTHORITY, AND CANAL PLANNED EXPANSION EFFORTS .................................................................................................................................................... 69 D. ASIAN PORTS THAT RECEIVE GRAINS, SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS ................................................................................ 79 E. OTHER FOREIGN PORTS WITH MOUS, AND OTHER EXPANSION EFFORTS ...................................................................... 87 VI. U.S. TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE ................................................................................................. 91 A. PUBLIC FUNDING FOR PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE ....................................................................................................... 91 B. ELEVATORS AND CAPACITY ................................................................................................................................... 92 C. GRAIN DELIVERY DYNAMICS FOR EXPORT POSITIONING ........................................................................................... 101 VII. COMPANY PROFILES ............................................................................................................................ 122 A. LARGE GRAIN EXPORTER .................................................................................................................................... 122 B. LARGE U.S. RETAILER ........................................................................................................................................ 123 C. MULTI-NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL EXPORTER AND FOREIGN IMPORTER....................................................................... 126 D. INTERNATIONAL SUGAR PRODUCER...................................................................................................................... 127 E. GEORGIA PORTS AUTHORITY (GPA) .................................................................................................................... 128 © informa economics, inc. iii Panama Canal Expansion: Impact on U.S. Agriculture December 2011 VIII. PRE- AND POST-PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION ..................................................................................... 130 A. TRANSPORTATION COSTS (CENTER GULF VERSUS PACIFIC NORTHWEST) ..................................................................... 130 B. TRANSPORTATION COSTS (TEXAS GULF VERSUS PACIFIC NORTHWEST) ....................................................................... 133 C. ADM POST PANAMAX SHIPS .............................................................................................................................. 134 D. ACCOMMODATE LARGER SHIPS ........................................................................................................................... 134 E. EAST COAST VERSUS WEST COAST ....................................................................................................................... 136 F. AGRICULTURE BENEFITTING VERSUS NON AGRICULTURE INDUSTRIES .......................................................................... 138 G. GULF TO ASIA VERSUS SOUTH AMERICA TO ASIA .................................................................................................... 138 IX. SPECIFIC ACTIONS REQUIRED TO ENSURE U.S. AGRICULTURE AND THE SOYBEAN INDUSTRY FULLY BENEFIT FROM EXPANDED PANAMA CANAL ................................................................................................................... 141 X. APPENDIX ................................................................................................................................................. 142 © informa economics, inc. iv Panama Canal Expansion: Impact on U.S. Agriculture December 2011 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Real Retail Sales Indexed to the Starting Recession Month ........................... 5 Figure 2: U.S. Major Crop Aggregate Net Revenue ......................................................
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