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BI-WEEKLY BRIEFING VOL. 9 NO. 15 25 JULY 2007 Searchable Archives with over 1,000 articles at http://www.cacianalyst.org

ANALYTICAL ARTICLES

FIELD REPORTS: THE CFE TREATY MORATORIUM

AND ITS IMPACT ON THE CAUCASUS’ FROZEN CONFLICTS REPRESENTATIVES OF TURKIC NATIONS Stephen Blank DISCUSS THE ROLE OF POLITICIANS IN STATE-BUILDING

Erica Marat GEORGIA SPEEDS UP EFFORTS

TOWARD CONFLICT RESOLUTION AZERBAIJAN AGAIN TORN BETWEEN IN SOUTH OSSETIA AMERICA AND IRAN Johanna Popjanevski Azer Kerimov

U.S. MILITARY STRIVES TO MAINTAIN MOVEMENT TO FORCE SOUTH OSSETIAN PRESENCE IN CENTRAL ASIA LEADER TO QUIT LAUNCHED Richard Weitz Kakha Jibladze

NEW LAW ON SOCIAL SECURITY TAKES ELECTION AUTHORITIES IN KAZAKHSTAN EFFECT IN TURKMENISTAN WARN OF “BLACK PR” SYNDROME Chemen Durdiyeva Marat Yermukanov

NEWS DIGEST

Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst

BI-WEEKLY BRIEFING VOL. 9 NO. 15 25 JULY 2007 Contents

Analytical Articles

THE CFE TREATY MORATORIUM AND ITS IMPACT ON THE CAUCASUS’ FROZEN CONFLICTS 3 Stephen Blank

GEORGIA SPEEDS UP EFFORTS TOWARD CONFLICT RESOLUTION IN SOUTH OSSETIA 6 Johanna Popjanevski

U.S. MILITARY STRIVES TO MAINTAIN PRESENCE IN CENTRAL ASIA 9 Richard Weitz

NEW LAW ON SOCIAL SECURITY TAKES EFFECT IN TURKMENISTAN 12 Chemen Durdiyeva

Field Reports

REPRESENTATIVES OF TURKIC NATIONS DISCUSS THE ROLE OF POLITICIANS IN STATE-BUILDING 15 Erica Marat

AZERBAIJAN AGAIN TORN BETWEEN AMERICA AND IRAN 16 Azer Kerimov

MOVEMENT TO FORCE SOUTH OSSETIAN LEADER TO QUIT LAUNCHED 18 Kakha Jibladze

ELECTION AUTHORITIES IN KAZAKHSTAN WARN OF “BLACK PR” SYNDROME 19 Marat Yermukanov

News Digest 21

THE CENTRAL ASIA-CAUCASUS ANALYST

Editor Svante E. Cornell

Assistant Editor, News Digest Alima Bissenova

Chairman, Editorial Board S. Frederick Starr

The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is an English language global Web journal devoted to analysis of the current issues facing the Central Asia-Caucasus region. It serves to link the business, governmental, journalistic and scholarly communities and is the global voice of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center. The Editor of the Analyst solicits most articles and field reports, however authors may suggest topics for future issues or submit articles and field reports for consideration. Such articles and field reports cannot have been previously published in any form, must be written in English, and must correspond precisely to the format and style of articles and field reports published in The Analyst (www.cacianalyst.org) and described below. The Analyst aims to provide our industrious and engaged audience with a singular and reliable assessment of events and trends in the region written in an analytical tone rather than a polemical one. Analyst articles reflect the fact that we have a diverse international audience. While this should not affect what author’s write about or their conclusions, this does affect the tone of articles. Analyst articles focus on a newsworthy topic, engage central issues of the latest breaking news from the region and are backed by solid evidence. Articles should normally be based on local language news sources. Each 1000-1200 word analytical article must offer a concise and authoritative statement of the event or issue in question. An article must provide relevant, precise and authoritative background information. It also must offer a sober and analytical judgment of the issue as well as a clinical evaluation of the importance of the event. Authors must cite facts of controversial nature to the Editor who may contact other experts to confirm claims. Since Analyst articles are based on solid evidence, rather than rumors or conjecture, they prove to be reliable sources of information on the region. By offering balanced and objective analysis while keeping clear of inflammatory rhetoric, The Analyst does more to inform our international readership on all sides of the issues. The Editor reserves the right to edit the article to conform to the editorial policy and specifications of The Analyst and to reject the article should it not be acceptable to our editorial committee for publication. On acceptance and publication of the edited version of the article, The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute of The Johns Hopkins University-The Nitze School of Advanced International Studies will issue an honorarium to the author. The copyright for the article or field report will reside with the Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst. However, the author may use all or part of the contracted article in any book or article in any media subsequently written by the author, provided that a copyright notice appears giving reference to the contracted article’s first publication by the "Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, Central Asia- Caucasus Institute, The Johns Hopkins University-The Nitze School of Advanced International Studies."

Submission Guidelines: Analytical Articles: Analytical articles require a three to four sentence Key Issue introduction to the article based on a news hook. Rather than a general, overarching analysis, the article must offer considered and careful judgment supported with concrete examples. The ideal length of analytical articles is between 1,000 and 1,300 words. The articles are structured as follows: KEY ISSUE: A short 100-word statement of your conclusions about the issue or news event on which the article focuses. BACKGROUND: 300-450 words of analysis about what has led up to the event or issue and why this issue is critical to the region. Include background information about the views and experiences of the local population. IMPLICATIONS: 300-450 words of analysis of the ramifications of this event or issue, including where applicable, implications for the local people’s future. CONCLUSIONS: 100-200 words that strongly state your conclusions about the impact of the event or issue.

Field Reports: Field Reports focus on a particular news event and what local people think about the event, or about the work of an NGdO. Field Reports address the implications the event or activity analyzed has for peoples’ lives and their communities. Field Reports do not have the rigid structure of Analytical Articles, and are shorter in length, averaging ca. 700-800 words.

Those interested in joining The Analyst’s pool of authors to contribute articles, field reports, or contacts of potential writers, please send your CV to: and suggest some topics on which you would like to write.

Svante E. Cornell Research Director; Editor, Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, The Johns Hopkins University 1619 Massachusetts Ave. N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036, USA. Tel. +1-202-663-5922; 1-202-663-7723; Fax. +1-202-663-7785 Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 25 July 2007 3

THE CFE TREATY MORATORIUM AND ITS IMPACT ON THE CAUCASUS’ FROZEN CONFLICTS Stephen Blank

On July 14, 2007, Russia formally suspended its participation in the CFE treaty although the treaty includes no legal basis for such an action. Few commentaries foresee a remilitarization in Europe or fundamentally negative change to the current security status quo. However, regarding the ‘frozen conflicts’ in Moldova and Georgia, this suspension has great potential significance. Russia suspended its compliance in order to be free to do what it wants with regard to its own military forces and avoid Western inspections of them, especially in the conflicts zones. Russia’s clearly stated objectives are incompatible with any true security for the region or beyond it for Europe.

BACKGROUND: Russia suspended its participation insists they should “return to the CFE Treaty which in the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty to they quit in 1991, implying that as part of the Soviet protest the failure of the West to ratify it – a failure Union in 1990 they inherited and accepted the treaty at due to Russia’s refusal to fully withdraw its forces form that time, thus they do not have the right as sovereign Moldova and Georgia. Other reasons cited are NATO states not to accept it.” Third, new group limits should enlargement and the American plan for missile be negotiated on NATO armaments and hardware to defenses in Central Europe. At the Vienna conference “compensate” Russia for NATO’s acceptance of new in mid-June called to respond to Russia’s complaints members and American installations in Romania and about the treaty, Russia unsuccessfully sought to Bulgaria. Those countries’ deployments and/or pressure the West into “modernizing” the treaty in its numerical ceilings should be lowered. Fourth, the CFE favor, mixing together issues such as the treaty itself, treaty’s “flank limits on Russian force deployments in missile defenses in Europe, and the Kosovo precedent the North Caucasus and Russia’s northwest should be as regards breakaway provinces, with the clear intent removed” because Russia “cannot and will not fulfill to make gains on at least one issue. Its failure ensured the provisons of the obsolete treaty to the detriment of the July 14 decision to suspend compliance for 150 days. its security” on this point. Since Russia has exceeded At Vienna Moscow advanced six points with regard to the treaty limits in the North Caucasus for years using the treaty. a treaty escape clause with full Western understanding, First, the 1999 adapted treaty must be ratified and this point presumably applies mainly to its northwest brought into force quickly or at least declared to be flank. But it certainly shows that Russia wants a “temporarily” valid by June 1, 2008. Second, the Baltic totally free hand in and around the CIS and at home states must sign the ratified treaty or at least the even though all the other signatories have renounced it temporarily validated treaty to fall under its on this point. If no agreement is reached on these and restrictions. As one commentator noted, Moscow also other Russian demands, e.g. keeping its forces in the Moldova and the Gudauta base in the Georgian 4 Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 25 July 2007 breakaway republic of Abkhazia, Russia threatened to It follows from this logic that Moscow will therefore suspend compliance – i.e. exempt itself from the eventually renounce the treaty and is already preparing treaty’s inspection regime, information exchanges, and to do so. One day after the Vienna conference began, quantitative force challenges – or even withdraw from members of the Collective Security Treaty the treaty. It also expected that other signatories Organization (Armenia, Belarus, Kazakshtan, would refrain from actions that “would hamper the Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan) issued treaty’s revitalizaiton” during such a suspension even a statement to the effect that, “the CFE does not meet though it arrogates to itself a legal right that does not the interests of stability in Europe, the treaty’s viability exist in the treaty text. and effectiveness have passed and its further existence IMPLICATIONS: These issues have considerable is subject to question.” importance for both Moldova and the conflicts around Russia’s has further potential dilemmas. Since Russian Georgia. In Moldova’s case, the Russian military forces are now leaving Georgia except for Gudauta, leadership believes that its Moldovan deployments are Georgia can sharply increase its forces up to the CFE a factor for stability there and Russia seeks a 20-year treaty’s limits or substitute them with a third power’s lease on a base there. As Kommersant correspondent forces, e.g. America’s or some other member of Boris Volkonsky pointed out, Russia’s demands for NATO. This would become a real possibility should flexibility with regard to its troop limits and Georgia join NATO and become subject to its rules. movements on the flanks while others are turned down Given the Russian perception of Georgia as a state that reveals a key point. If they are not held down and is eager to employ provocative and even coercive Russia is, that opens the way to a major shift in the means to recover its territories, this could, according to regional balance of power. So to avert this shift, Russia some Russian analysts, threaten Russian vital interests must either withdraw from Moldova and Gudauta to since Russia is after all a Caucasian power and the get Western ratification, and forsake its previous conflicts in the North and South Caucasus are closely policies or risk the alternative spelled out by related to one another. Therefore for Moscow it is Volkonsky. Specifically, critical that NATO and all other non-contiguous third The CFE Treaty blocks the way to recognition of powers (i.e. America) keep out of the Caucasus (a Abkhazia, South Ossetia or Trnasnistria based on the demand that also means binding Georgia and NATO precedent of Kosovo’s independence. Restrictions on to the CFE treaty’s provisions). flanking countries like Russia prevent it from being The future of the Russian base at Gudauta, which is able to respond to other states transferring their quota nominally in Georgia but actually in territory (which is permitted under the treaty) to Georgia or controlled by the separatist Abkhaz government, also Moldova. If they do so, and Russia cannot respond, raises difficult issues in conjunction with the CFE their hopes of forcibly reincorproating those areas into treaty’s provisions. Moscow claims that only 400 their territory increase. According to Volkonsky, military personnel remain there, half of whom are Moscow cannot allow any such reincorpoation, retirees and dependents. It acknowledges the presence whether it be coercive or negotiated, because that of several combat and transport helicopters and some “would undermine confidence in the country’s other military vehicles and facilities there, but refuses leadership at home and put an end to Russia’s to allow inspections under the CFE treaty, which pretensions to rebirth as a great power or even Georgia demands. Moscow argues that it needs to leadership in the former Soviet Union”. Given the support “peacekeeping” forces in Abkhazia and the importance of such goals for Moscow, freezing the other ‘frozen conflicts’. And such forces’ number is status quo or invoking a Kosovo precedent to first not limited by the treaty, which also does not account declare breakaway provinces’ independence and then for “unaccounted for treaty limited equipment” amalgamate them to Moscow becomes imperative. (UTLE) possessed by separatists in Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Transnistria, all or most of which were Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 25 July 2007 5 received from the Russian army and which can be a minimum, to freeze these conflicts, obstruct plans for transferred to them in the absence of inspections. It a solution that exclude the possibility of a neo-imperial does not require much imagination to grasp what these regime in Moldova and the Caucasus; and at a forces could do with increased military equipment. maximum to allow it to declare independence for these Since the presence of unaccounted for weaponry, which secessionist provinces and revise the post-1991 either belongs to or could be transferred to these territorial settlement in its favor. Coupled with the separatist enclaves, is a major factor for continued likely forthcoming Russian withdrawal from the CFE instability and potential violence in these conflicts. treaty, such actions would likely be among the first Moscow’s refusal to allow inspections under the treaty rocks of an avalanche in Europe and Eurasia that could shows that it remains in violation of its provisions rapidly overturn the post-Cold War status quo. even as it demands that the West ratify the treaty Nobody can foresee the scope or point of termination unconditionally. Finally, Moscow argued at Vienna, of such an avalanche but it surely is unlikely to end albeit unsuccessfully, that it needs flexibility to deploy well for the peoples of Moldova, the Caucasus, Europe, forces at Gudauta to deal with terrorist insurgencies in or Russia. Chechnya and the North Caucasus. AUTHOR’S BIO: Professor Stephen Blank, Strategic CONCLUSIONS: Essentially, Russia now argues that Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, Carlisle the CFE treaty threatens its ability to dominate the Barracks, PA 17013. The views expressed here do not Caucasus and the Black Sea and prevents it from represent those of the U.S. Army, Defense responding to what it expects will be Kosovo’s Department, or the U.S. government. independence. The freedom of action it seeks, aims at

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6 Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 25 July 2007

GEORGIA SPEEDS UP EFFORTS TOWARD CONFLICT RESOLUTION IN SOUTH OSSETIA Johanna Popjanevski

While tensions in South Ossetia have escalated over the past months, Tbilisi confidently pursues its campaign of promoting alternative South Ossetian leader Dimitri Sanakoyev as the rightful voice of South Ossetia and of rehabilitating Georgian-controlled villages surrounding Tskhinvali. While the legitimacy of the provisional administration remains to be recognized by foreign actors, Ossetians from all over Georgia seemingly increasingly to back Saaakashvili’s conflict resolution initiatives, indicating that Tbilisi’s shift towards an incentive-based conflict resolution policy may be laying the ground for a resolution of the South Ossetian conflict.

BACKGROUND: Since the establishment of a Tskhinvali administration as the “South provisional South Ossetian administration in Ossetian side”, stressing that the Kokoity-led May this year, Tbilisi has intensified its efforts government does not represent the interests of to promote the alternative government and its the South Ossetian community at large. head, Tbilisi-loyal Dimitri Sanakoyev, as the Instead, Tbilisi is enhancing its diplomatic ties true voice of the Ossetian people. Sanakoyev, with Sanakoyev’s administration, most recently who served as defense and vice prime minister through establishing a joint commission tasked in the breakaway republic in 2001, won an to elaborate a plan for the future status of the overwhelming victory in the November 2006 South Ossetian republic. alternative presidential polls launched by These initiatives take place in parallel to opponents of the secessionist government. Tbilisi’s plea for the integration of the Pursuing its battle for the “hearts and minds” of alternative South Ossetian leader into the JCC the South Ossetian people, Tbilisi has since (Joint Control Commission) peace format, a launched large-scale rehabilitation projects in lead in Tbilisi’s campaign for reforming the the Georgian-controlled villages surrounding current mediation and peacekeeping structures the secessionist capital of Tskhinvali. in South Ossetia (comprising Russian, South Construction works have taken place Ossetian, North Ossetian and Georgian particularly in the village of Kurta, home to the components). provisional administration located only a few Sanakoyev, who fought on the South Ossetian miles northeast of the secessionist capital at side during the war in the early 1990s, has had Tskhinvali. Simultaneously, Tbilisi and the notable success in establishing himself as the Kurta-based administration have both voice of the Ossetian people settled in Georgia continued to rhetorically denounce the proper. During a July 22 assembly in Kurta, legitimacy of the Kokoity-led secessionist ethnic Ossetians from various regions of government. In a recent statement, President Georgia gathered to express their support for Saakashvili rejected any future reference to the the provisional administration and to encourage Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 25 July 2007 7 their friends and relatives in Tskhinvali to friendly approach, most recently through adopt a more constructive approach to the appointing the former head of the European settlement of the conflict with Georgia. In his Integration committee of the Georgian address to the assembly, Sanakoyev underlined Parliament, Davit Bakradze, as State Minister the necessity of cooperating with the Georgian for Conflict Resolution. President Saakashvili, government and stressed that reunification who has long pleaded for increased European with Georgia as an autonomous entity engagement in relation to both South Ossetia constitutes the only alternative to armed and Abkhazia, has stated that Bakradze’s confrontation. appointment should be viewed as a readiness on De facto South Ossetian leader Kokoity, on his Georgia’s part of further engaging the EU in part, remains understandably hostile towards the conflict resolution processes. the provisional administration and continues to The Russian government, which initially write Sanakoyev off as Tbilisi’s puppet. As a threatened that the establishment of an consequence, tensions between the two sides alternative South Ossetian administration have escalated over the past months, resulting could lead to military confrontation, remains in disputes over water shortages, alleged fire skeptical to the Tbilisi-Sanakoyev alliance. exchanges from both sides, and Kokoity’s Noticeably however, Russian lead negotiator refusal to take part in a July 7 JCC meeting in for South Ossetia, Yuri Popov, stated recently Tbilisi. that he did not rule out the possibility of With the important exception of Washington, including Sanakoyev in the quadripartite peace Western powers have remained wary of the talks, albeit not as a separate party but instead establishment of the provisional as a representative of the Georgian side. administration. Brussels in particular has called IMPLICATIONS: Tbilisi’s recent initiatives upon Tbilisi to avoid focusing peace efforts on with regard to South Ossetia indicate a new and individual personalities, and instead to establish seemingly efficient approach to conflict institutions based on the true desires of the resolution by the Georgian administration. South Ossetian people. The OSCE, facilitator Through an emerging focus on establishing of the JCC format, has so far refrained from incentives for re-integration, rather than the use engaging in formal talks with Sanakoyev, likely of aggressive rhetoric, Tbilisi appears to be in order to avoid undermining the current legal laying the ground for a resolution to the South framework of the JCC format and to avoid Ossetian conflict. Whereas previous forceful re- antagonizing Russia, a veto-wielding member integration attempts, such as Georgia’s security of the organization. sweep in the region in the summer of 2004, did Both Tbilisi and the Sanakoyev administration nothing but agitate the Tbilisi-Tskhinvali nonetheless appear determined to pursue their relationship, the central and Kurta-based campaign of gaining international acceptance of administrations now appear determined to the provisional administration. During a three- present the Tskhinvali residents with an day visit to Brussels last month, Sanakoyev alternative favorable to violent confrontation. advocated increased European engagement in This new approach consist in part of presenting the conflict resolution process, describing its the South Ossetian population with an involvement as a “key” to conflict resolution in alternative to Kokoity’s leadership, while Georgia. Tbilisi has also adopted a Brussels- persistently denouncing the latter as 8 Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 25 July 2007 representing a criminalized regime in the hands Kokoity’s regime. Indeed, events over the past of Moscow. In particular, Sanakoyev’s ethnic weeks indicate that the battle for Tskhinvali – belonging and his backing by many Ossetians its hearts and minds this time – is far from over residing in Georgia proper downplays the and thus, the possibility of the eruption of ethnic dimension of the conflict and sends the violence in the months to come should not be message to Tskhinvali residents that peaceful disregarded. co-existence within Georgia’s borders is CONCLUSIONS: In light of the escalating possible. Moreover, through large-scale tensions between Tbilisi and Tskhinvali over investments in the ethnically diverse village the past months, it remains to be seen whether surrounding Tskhinvali, Tbilisi is seemingly Tbilisi’s South Ossetia strategy will lead to a attempting to present the residents of peaceful settlement of the conflict. Whatever separatist-controlled areas of South Ossetia the outcome, initiatives over the past months with visible evidence of the benefits of nevertheless indicate an important shift in the reintegration with Georgia, and to show its Georgian government’s approach towards good intentions towards the Ossetian conflict resolution in the region. Whereas population in the region. Tbilisi has previously faced strong international The ultimate success of Tbilisi’s approach will criticism for using unnecessarily harsh rhetoric largely depend on the acceptance it receives and forceful actions with regard to its separatist from the international community. While the regions, the Georgian government is taking an U.S. government has expressed support for increasingly constructive approach to conflict Saakashvili’s new strategies, the EU’s response resolution, built on positive incentives rather to Tbilisi’s initiatives in the last months has than aggression, strengthening its position as been more hesitant, possible due to Moscow’s regards European and NATO-integration. rejection of the provisional administration. As Yet whereas Tbilisi’s softer policies are in line facilitator of the JCC negotiations, the OSCE with earlier European advice, Europe’s in particular is faced with a dilemma. Engaging indecisiveness regarding the changing realities in talks with Sanakoyev would signal possible in South Ossetia is all the more glaring. It is inclusion of Sanakoyev as an additional party to exactly at this dynamic juncture that Europe’s the JCC format, something that would require policies could matter in moving the South amending the legal framework that regulates Ossetian conflict toward a resolution. By using the current format, and has been openly the opportunities arising from the new realities, opposed by Russia, North Ossetia and South Europe could both increase its own role in the Ossetia. conflict resolution processes in the region and In spite of its backing among ethnic Ossetians actually support steps to achieve a breakthrough in Georgia proper, the Tbilisi-Kurta alliance is that could help unlock the region. If this now faced with the challenging task of window of opportunity is missed, Georgia’s changing the public perception in Tskhinvali, increasing frustration with Europe is likely to where only last November an overwhelming keep growing. majority of the population voted in favor of AUTHOR’S BIO: Johanna Popjanevski is a separation from Georgia, and where public Deputy Director at the Central Asia-Caucasus opinion still appears dominated by faith in Institute & Silk Road Studies Program. Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 25 July 2007 9

U.S. MILITARY STRIVES TO MAINTAIN PRESENCE IN CENTRAL ASIA Richard Weitz

For the past decade, the United States and its NATO allies have sought to organize collective activities on issues related to emergency management with the countries of Central Asia. This type of cooperation is typically less controversial than collaboration involving other military activities such as collective interventions in neighboring countries or domestic anti-terrorist operations. The experience with Uzbekistan has made NATO governments wary of enhancing the military tools available for the region’s authoritarian governments to suppress domestic rivals or popular protests. Yet, cooperation on disaster management can, by improving interoperability among participating countries, provide a basis for segueing to more demanding forms of joint military operations in the future.

BACKGROUND: From June 7-12, approximately Since the late 1990s, numerous symposiums, 230 military and civilian personnel from seminars, and computer-assisted command post Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, exercises have been held under the auspices of the Tajikistan, and the United States participated in Regional Cooperation series. During this same Regional Cooperation 2007 (RC07). The computer- period, NATO has sought to enhance the ability of simulated disaster response exercise, which took Central Asian countries to manage natural and place in Kazakhstan under the joint sponsorship of manmade emergencies as part of its program to the Kazakhstan Ministry of Defense and Ministry integrate the former Soviet republics into the Euro- of Emergency Situations, was organized jointly by Atlantic security community. Initiatives to this end the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) and began in 1994 in the form of NATO’s Partnership U.S. Joint Forces Command (USJFCOM). for Peace (PfP) program, to which Kazakhstan, The exercise aimed to strengthen the ability of the Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan eventually participating countries to collaborate in preparing became signatories. PfP missions involved joint for, responding to, and recovering from the effects military training, planning, and exercises designed of a natural or manmade disaster under the to increase transparency in defense planning and framework of a Regional Cooperation Center. budgetary processes, enhance military readiness and Although the scenario involved a natural disaster, interoperability, and strengthen democratic control RC07 sought to develop national capabilities that over armed forces. can also apply to countering terrorism, narcotics In May 1998, the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council trafficking, illegal migration, and human (EAPC) created a Euro-Atlantic Disaster Response trafficking. The exercise addressed such goals as Coordination Center (EADRCC) to integrate effective information sharing, interoperability, and NATO-led disaster relief efforts in the area of the coordination in regional response efforts. EAPC members, which include all NATO member governments and the Alliance’s Partner countries. 10 Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 25 July 2007

In April 2003, NATO sponsored a multinational soured much of the population on the 1,000-man consequence management exercise (Ferghana 2003) American presence. Members of the Kyrgyz involving over 19 countries, either as participants or parliament have pressed the government to evict observers, in its first EAPC exercise in Central U.S. forces from the base, but the government has Asia. said it will support the U.S. deployment at Manas IMPLICATIONS: NATO and the U.S. military as long as the war in Afghanistan continues – and use joint exercises such as Ferghana 2003 and RC07 after the U.S. agreed to increase its annual rental to develop partnerships with Central Asian states in payments from $20 million to $150 million. the area of collective security. Western security U.S. military planners consider the air base essential experts appreciate that they can only safeguard the for sustaining post-conflict operations in North Atlantic community by addressing Afghanistan as long as Uzbekistan denies coalition transnational asymmetric threats at their points of forces access to Karshi-Khanabad. Yet, the origin and by disrupting their support networks, precarious situation regarding Manas, as well as in which may be global in scope. RC07 and related Afghanistan and Iraq, is leading CENTCOM military exercises help strengthen the capacity of planners to explore possible alternative sites for these countries to combat regional terrorist threats military bases in Central Asia. and deny terrorist groups access to safe havens such The deterioration in relations between Uzbekistan as that which al Qaeda developed in Afghanistan and most NATO countries in recent years, during the 1990s. combined with the problematic situation in Participation in collective security activities also Kyrgyzstan, has made Kazakhstan a focal point of helps develop military-to-military relations between NATO and U.S. military attention. At the same the armed forces engaged in the region. The new time that Uzbekistan was curtailing NATO’s access CENTCOM commander, Adm. William J. Fallon, to military facilities on its territory, Kazakhstan exploited the opportunity provided by RC07 to meet ratified a framework agreement regarding its with ministers from Kazakhstan, Afghanistan, involvement with NATO’s PfP. The Kazakh Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, and Tajikistan to discuss government also ignored the statement adopted at other forms of regional security cooperation. the 2005 summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Admiral Fallon had previously served primarily in Organization (SCO) demanding a timetable for the the Asia Pacific theater and lacks extensive withdrawal of the NATO-led coalition in experience or contacts in Central and South Asia. Afghanistan from its Central Asian military bases. RC07 could also help achieve another important Kazakh officials even kept their troops in Iraq, U.S. objective: securing continued American access despite popular disapproval of the deployment. For to military bases in Central Asia. After Uzbekistan its part, NATO decided to base its new on-site evicted U.S. forces from its territory in 2005, only liaison representative, Tugay Tuncer, in one U.S. military installation has remained in the Kazakhstan. region – the Manas Air Base in Kyrgyzstan. Since In September 2006, Kazakhstan hosted the latest the Tulip Revolution led to the toppling of former NATO Steppe Eagle exercise. These annual Kyrgyz President Askar Akaev in May 2006, exercises have been held since 2003 to improve members of the new government have, at Russian compatibility between Kazakh and NATO units and Chinese urging , periodically threatened to and also practice anti-terror missions. Furthermore, expel U.S. troops or limit operations at Manas. A NATO has created a military institute of foreign series of bizarre incidents – an American soldier languages in Kazakhstan that will teach NATO- killing a Kyrgyz worker, a mysterious kidnapping of relevant languages (especially English) to Kazakh an American female soldier, and the collision of a servicemen. U.S. plane with the Kyrgyz presidential jet—have Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 25 July 2007 11

At the June 2007 meeting of the Euro-Atlantic CONCLUSIONS: RC 07 did not involve Partnership Council, Kazakhstan’s Deputy Minister participants from Russia and China even though of Defense, General Bulat Sembinov, reaffirmed his these countries’ sheer proximity would likely draw government’s commitment to help achieve stability them into some dimension of the response to any in Afghanistan by allowing coalition aircraft major regional disaster. Yet, such cooperation could continued use of Kazakh air space. According to in principle extend to Russia and China, which Sembinov, over 5,200 aircraft have overflown already cooperate on bilateral consequence Kazakhstan in support of Operation Enduring management projects with the U.S. military. Freedom since 2003 and more than 80 aircraft have Beijing, Moscow, and Washington might find it made emergency landings at Kazakh airfields. easier to cooperate in Central Asia on a “soft” RC 2007 also helps bolster the U.S. and NATO security issue like disaster management within the military presence in Central Asia, where expanding framework of their overlapping multilateral security Chinese and Russian military activities are institutions than on more contentious issues such as challenging Western influence. It is widely democratization and basing rights. assumed that Russian and Chinese representatives Cooperative emergency planning might also provide at the 2005 SCO summit encouraged Uzbekistan to an opening for ties with governments otherwise expel U.S. military forces from its territory in 2006 wary of security collaboration with the West. The and that Moscow and Beijing are now pressuring example of NATO’s relations with Tajikistan is Kyrgyzstan to end U.S. access to Manas. In August illustrative. When Robert Simmons, the NATO 2007, the SCO will hold its next summit in Bishkek Secretary General’s special envoy, visited Dushanbe and conduct a major multinational counterterrorist in late May 2007, President Imomali Rahmon told exercise in Russia’s Ural region, involving him that the Taijik government would limit its approximately 2,000 Russian and 1,600 Chinese cooperation with NATO to military training, troops. A steady stream of senior U.S. officials, border security, combating drug-trafficking, certain including Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and technical projects, and planning for emergencies and Assistant Secretary of State for Central and natural disasters. Southern Asia Richard Boucher, have visited the AUTHOR’S BIO: Richard Weitz is Senior Fellow Kyrgyz capital in recent weeks to persuade leaders and Director for Project Management at the there against making U.S. access to the Manas base Hudson Institute. an issue at the summit.

12 Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 25 July 2007

NEW LAW ON SOCIAL SECURITY TAKES EFFECT IN TURKMENISTAN Chemen Durdiyeva

On July 1, a new law on social security and a national program on improving the social welfare of the population took effect in Turkmenistan. This law was accepted by the Mejlis or Turkmen Parliament in March and came into force on July 1, and replaced the earlier social security legislations of 1998 and 2006 developed by ex-president Saparmurat Niyazov. In line with the recent reforms in the country, this mega-project of the government, designed by President Gurbanguly Berdimukhammedov, became a historical event in the country in restoring once scaled down pensions, opening up many types of welfare payments and introducing structural changes in the social security system in Turkmenistan.

BACKGROUND: The reformation of the deposited to a bank account over the years of social security system in Turkmenistan dates covered employment. The policy of voluntary back to legislation of as early as 1998 and 2006 insurance originally was meant to replace the through which former president Niyazov set up state social security program. Such a policy, by his own vision of a pensions system in the implication, would have axed state subsidies on country. One of the main differences of old-age pensions; hence the majority of people Niyazov’s pensions system from the pre- drew hands even from signing a contract to existing one was the introduction of a deposit the stated 2 percent to a bank account. “voluntary social insurance” policy within the Yet, the savings accumulated up to the state social security system. According to the retirement age were not even safe from voluntary social insurance, any senior citizen inflation. willing to get an old-age pension from the The legislations of 1998 and 2006 had also period when the law came into force would entailed certain structural changes in state have contributed a minimum of 2 percent of all benefits paid for sickness and maternity leaves. earnings per month to a special personal bank Accordingly, all local governments and account. To do this, individuals voluntarily employers of any type were authorized and signed a contract with the authorized burdened to provide similar benefits out of their organizations of the Ministry of Social Security own budgets, while the state would cease in Turkmenistan. In other words, old-age central payments as such. Furthermore, the pensioner system based on the voluntary social majority of senior citizens who did not have a insurance as such appeared to have equaled to sufficient period of covered employment (25 receiving at retirement what one actually Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 25 July 2007 13 years for men and 20 for women) totally ceased mothers and other people in need of social receiving old-age pensions. In other words, the services. The fact that President state pensions being paid up to 1998 were Berdimukhammedov restored the pensions of basically cut off due to this reason. Losing a agricultural workers generated deep resonance pensions payment, miserable though it was but among the hundreds of thousands of senior the sole means of survival in a country with an citizens in Turkmenistan’s rural areas. On the unemployment rate at about 40 percent, was a basis of small-scale participant observation real burden for the country’s many senior conducted among the old-age retirees getting citizens. Likewise, the pensions of the majority their first pensions in long lines at the pay of agricultural workers were also virtually cut desks, it was possible to witness a deep off by the authorities for unspecified reasons. satisfaction and a strong sympathy for The official rationale for such a move was president Berdimukhammedov’s recent social explained as insufficient period of covered security policies. Elderly people who had employment of the workers in agricultural worked for almost two decades but lost their fields. However, with the above-mentioned pensions in 1998 could not even stop the joyful new law coming into force, the major problems tears in their eyes when they received their first concerning old-age and disability pensions, pensions again. state allowances for the temporarily The increased level of support for new mothers unemployed, and regarding retirees with and early childhood payments is being provided insufficient covered employment, appear to within this context, which according to local have been settled and the public appears social security experts might by implication pleased. raise the rate of child births in the country. The Initially, the voluntary social insurance system new law also gives widows of World War II designed by ex-president Niyazov was meant to veterans an increased pension of 1,000,000 replace the overall state social security program, manats ($192 official and $40 unofficial rate). however the overall savings accumulated per The minimum pension in Turkmenistan will be month in one of the five velayats (formerly 300,000 manats ($57 official rate) from now on. oblast), for example, are not even one third of People with insufficient or even with no what is currently spent on pensions payments covered employment at all will also get per month. As a result, the voluntary social monthly state allowances slightly over the insurance program seems to have failed to reach minimum pension; those whose pensions were its aims and turned out to be at most an reduced with 1998 and 2006 legislations are also alternative or additional program to the sate being restored to their previous status. social security system. This policy, however, is Moreover, the retirement age of military still functioning today while emphasis is personnel is being decreased from 58 to 52 for increasingly being paid to state subsidies. men and from 55 to 48 for women serving in the IMPLICATIONS: Particularly, armed forces of Turkmenistan. Berdimukhammedov’s new law on social In addition to these major reforms, security provides material support for senior Berdimukhammedov has also announced the citizens, the disabled, and families of the launch of a wide-scale program to improve the veterans of World War II, as well as new living standards of the people living in the 14 Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 25 July 2007 villages, remote areas and small towns in on social security, particularly, turned out to be Turkmenistan. The program envisions another highlight of his major reformist particularly providing all the social services, approach. Restoring earlier old age and reconstructing communications and disability pensions made the lives of the transportation systems and sustainable water, country’s senior citizens less complicated with as well as providing full electricity supply as in some optimism for the future. Providing state city centers. allowances for new mothers and newborns as CONCLUSIONS: Although Gurbanguly well as for people with no covered employment Berdimukhammedov came into office became a real step in improving the welfare of promising to follow ex-president Niyazov’s the people of Turkmenistan. policies, all of his recent reforms in the sectors AUTHOR’S BIO: Chemen Durdiyeva is an of economy, education and healthcare appear to Ashgabat-based freelance writer. take a reverse direction. Overwriting the law

New issue of the

China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly

The May 2007 issue of the China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly, edited by Dr. Niklas Swanström, is online.

The issue contains articles by Daniel Burghart, Michael Mihalka, Braekhus & Overland, Olga Oliker, and Sebastien Peyrouse, among other.

The issue is freely available online through www.silkroadstudies.org.

Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 25 July 2007 15

FIELD REPORTS

REPRESENTATIVES OF TURKIC NATIONS DISCUSS THE ROLE OF POLITICIANS IN STATE-BUILDING Erica Marat

On July 23, a conference entitled “Role of political Karabakh region. As he noted, “If it wasn’t for leaders in state-building processes in Turkic Heydar Aliyev, Azerbaijan would be under countries in the twentieth century” was held in Armenia that is supported by Russia and Iran”. Bishkek. The conference was organized by the There was a noticeable consensus among the Heydar Aliyev Foundation, created in memory of conference participants on the Soviet legacy in the the former Azerbaijani president. Political and Turkic world. Most blamed the Soviet regime for academic experts from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and suppressed Turkic identity and for the current weak Kyrgyzstan participated. level of cooperation between the Central Asian The conference sought to find parallels between the states on the one hand and Azerbaijan and Turkey achievements of Turkey’s historical leader Kemal on the other. Ataturk and his counterparts in the Turkic world. Bolotbek Shamshiyev, representative of the Kyrgyz Azerbaijani and Kazakh representatives emphasized Presidential Administration, pointed at the Russian the great similarities between Ataturk and Heydar seizure of territories formerly occupied by Turkic Aliyev, as well as Nursultan Nazarbayev. Kyrgyz tribes, “Russia today is decadent, it is time for her to representatives expressed their hope that Ataturk or share its [Asian] lands with other nations”. Heydar Aliyev are yet to come in Kyrgyzstan, and Shamshiyev commented that the situation in post- that incumbent president Kurmanbek Bakiyev has a Ottoman empire Turkey was “commensurate to unique historical chance to join the ranks of other former Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union, as the messianic political leaders of the Turkic world. French, British, and Greeks were occupying Turkish Uzbek President Islam Karimov’s name was territories”. mentioned twice at the conference, while post- Soviet Turkmen leaders were left out altogether. Murat Kozhobekov, a professor at the Kyrgyz- Turkish University Manas in Bishkek, discussed As Gafar Aliyev, representative of the Azerbaijani the role of Ataturk in modern Turkey. He narrated Presidential Administration and author of a book on the history of Turkic tribes, their development, Heydar Aliyev’s legacy, mentioned, “Thanks to migration, and similarities. Kozhobekov pointed out Heydar Aliyev, Azerbaijan today is developing by differences between pan-Turkic and Turkic the day and by the year”. Gafar Aliyev blamed the ideologies, emphasizing that only the latter one last Soviet ruler Mikhail Gorbachev’s should prevail today. administration for tensions over the Nagorno- 16 Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 25 July 2007

Another Kyrgyz representative, Jolbors Jorobekov, representatives harshly criticized former Kyrgyz director of the State Committee on Religious Issues, president Askar Akayev for bringing flowers to the noted that despite similarities between Turkic monument of the Armenian genocide in Yerevan peoples, there is no single history of Turkic during his visit to Armenia, calling it a support of civilization existing. However, he later said that the “great Armenian lie”. “We [Kyrgyz people] should not be a second Asef Mamedov, an ethnic Azerbaijani from Switzerland, second Malaysia, part of Russia or Kyrgyzstan, reminded Gafar Aliyev and Khavva Kazakhstan’s oblast, but have our own [national] Mamedov, a member of the Azerbaijani parliament, culture and identity”. Jorobekov claimed that that roughly 500,000 ethnic Azerbaijanis live in the despite permanent political and economic instability Central Asian region, “who crave for more in Kyrgyzstan, President Bakiyev will enter the 2010 connections with Azerbaijan”. Having left for presidential elections with “full confidence in his Central Asia himself at the age of nine, Asef own victory”. Mamedov emphasized that he never felt any inter- Kazakhstan’s representative, Aben Nurmanov, dean ethnic tensions between Azerbaijanis and the local of the Kazakh University for Economy and population. He also called for greater attention from Consulting, began his speech by saying “I beg you the Azerbaijani government on the issues of Central to live without envying [Kazakhstan]”. He Asian Azerbaijani population. described Kazakhstan’s recent economic At the end, all conference participants agreed that achievements and drew parallels with Azerbaijan: greater consolidation in the Turkic world is “History, culture, religion, language, ecology, necessary in order to stand the challenges of the 21st problems, external challenges, natural resources, and century, so that mistakes of the past century are not the Caspian Sea are similar”, he concluded. repeated in the future. Kemelbek Kojomkulov, Nurmanov argued that both Heydar Aliyev and representative of the Kyrgyz National University, Nazarbayev have achieved a lot. Importantly, concluded that Ataturk’s ideas should “receive Nurmanov notes, Azerbaijan supported prominent continuation” in the Turkic world and Kazakhstan’s candidacy to take over the OSCE that conferences such as this contribute to it. chairmanship in 2009. All conference speakers were males, with several Furthermore, conference participants agreed on the female participants in national dresses sitting in the meaning of the alleged Armenian genocide as being audience. The conference’s working language was a “large ethno-centric myth”. While Kyrgyz Russian. representatives praised the fact that Heydar Aliyev participated at the 1,000th anniversary of the Manas epic in Kyrgyzstan in 1996, Azerbaijani

AZERBAIJAN AGAIN TORN BETWEEN AMERICA AND IRAN Azer Kerimov

The Azerbaijani government again finds itself torn developed between Azerbaijan and NATO. The between competing regional powers, in this case plan will include an upgraded and presumably more between Iran and the U.S.. On July 23, Azerbaijan’s intense cooperation between the two parties. The Foreign Minister, Elmar Mammadyarov, announced move comes as a follow-up to the security-military that there would be a new partnership plan consultations held in Washington two weeks ago Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 25 July 2007 17 between U.S. and Azerbaijani government officials. development in Iran is not playing a major role in The latter, headed by Deputy Foreign Minister U.S.-Azerbaijani relations and not affecting them Araz Azimov, reported to the media back in Baku much.” that the consultations and negotiations were very Indeed, the trade turnover between Azerbaijan and fruitful and new programs and activities in the Iran has been rising in the past several years and it security and military fields are planned between the is unlikely that the Azerbaijani political leadership two countries. will risk this partnership with an economically This development coincides with the much- powerful neighbor. Specifically, Iran supplies publicized offer by Russian President Vladimir energy to Nakhchivan, an exclave of Azerbaijan Putin to his American counterpart George W. Bush under Armenian embargo which remains in a regarding the joint use of the Gabala radar station, difficult economic situation. located in Azerbaijan. Although official Nevertheless, many political analysts in the country Washington has not responded positively to the believe that Iranian-Azerbaijani relations are of the offer, the incident once again showed the strategic nature of a marriage of convenience, and do not bear importance of Azerbaijan, and its pivotal role in the any sincere signs of friendship. Political analyst broader U.S. security and defense policy. Zardush Alizadeh, a leader of the Social Democratic These intense negotiations and increasing Party with good ties to Iran, was quoted by on June cooperation between Azerbaijan and the U.S. worry 19 to say that “Iranian-Azerbaijani relations are Iran for obvious reasons. On July 25, the Day.az based on suspicion and mutual mistrust.” news site reported that Iranian President Mahmoud Although unwilling to spoil its relations with Iran, Ahmadinejad is planning an official visit to Baku to the Azerbaijani government is likely to expand its meet his Azerbaijani counterpart and hold security and military ties with the U.S. and other consultations regarding regional security. members of NATO. Speaking at the U.S. embassy’s Azerbaijan will once again be pressured to stay reception for U.S. Navy Day on June 2, Azerbaijani neutral in the U.S.-Iranian conflict and abstain Defense Minister Safar Abiyev said that his country from providing any technical and logistical pays high attention to the mutual partnership with assistance to the American side should a military the U.S., and that this partnership now included conflict erupt. trainings by U.S. military officials for Azerbaijani The Iranian side also uses economic and trade tools military experts in the field of war games and to pressure the Azerbaijani government. On July 24, computer-based simulations. This new tactic will Azerbaijani media reported that the Iranian increase the capability of the Azerbaijani military in government once again revived mention about the terms of planning and exercising different war debts Azerbaijan owes to Iran for the purchase of options. electricity. Three weeks ago, Azerbaijani media also reported It is likely that the Azerbaijani government will that the Pentagon was using Azerbaijani territory desire to stay impartial in this regional for virtual games and computer-based war confrontation. On July 23, Trend News Agency simulations for its own military planning. This quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Hafiz Pashayev as created rumors in the country that the Pentagon saying that “Azerbaijan is always against the idea of might be planning a war against Iran using nuclear proliferation. But we also recognize any Azerbaijani territory. Alternatively, it was country’s right for the peaceful use of nuclear speculated that the U.S. is planning military power. Azerbaijan is in friendly relations both with operations against Azerbaijan in case need may arise Iran and the US and our relations with both in the future. The U.S. embassy in Baku countries are improving. The issue of nuclear power downplayed these rumors, informing the media that 18 Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 25 July 2007 this is just a normal tactical routine in the U.S. will be able to survive in this regional rivalry. Yet, Army. increasing pressures from both sides make it With Azerbaijan’s economic capacity rising, it is challenging to maintain regional security and likely that the political leadership of the country stability.

MOVEMENT TO FORCE SOUTH OSSETIAN LEADER TO QUIT LAUNCHED Kakha Jibladze

The Georgian government continues to pursue an Minister Zurab Noghaideli and the new State assertive alternative approach to ending the Minister for Conflict Resolution Davit Bakradze. secessionist South Ossetian regime in Tskhinvali. The Georgian government has quickly asserted its Although tension in the conflict zone has risen support for Dmitri Sanakoyev over the past six considerably since the unrecognized November months. In March, President Mikheil Saakashvili elections of the alternative government led by visited the alternative de facto leader at his base in Dmitry Sanakoyev, Tbilisi believes the Kurta-based Kurta, a Georgian-controlled village just miles north leadership is the only way out of the frozen conflict. of Tskhinvali. The Georgian parliament created a The latest effort to weaken Eduard Kokoiti’s hold special administrative position for Sanakoyev this on the separatist government is a public movement spring, and maneuvered for him to speak in front of called “Goodbye Kokoiti.” Spearheaded by Vladimir the European Parliament this summer. Sanakoyev, a high-ranking member of Dmitri However, although Tbilisi has been adamant that Sanakoyev’s government, the movement aims “to working through Sanakoyev is the only way to deliver a message to Kokoity that he must quit,” resolve the conflict, other parties in the dispute are Sanakoyev told Georgian media on July 23. decidedly against the newcomer. Russia has Vladimir Sanakoyev maintains that Kokoiti is a repeatedly refused to allow Sanakoyev to participate “major obstacle” to the peaceful resolution of the in any JCC format peace talks and the de facto conflict and must be removed. “Kokoity and his government in Tskhinvali refers to him as a traitor. regime is the major obstacle for peace in the region,” Tension in the region threatened to boil over this Vladimir Sanakoyev told journalists on July 23. summer when damaged water pipes caused “We are declaring that from today we are launching Tskhinvali and Georgian villages to go for days actions with an aim to deliver a message to Kokoity without drinking water or water for their crops. that he must quit.” The movement will take place The situation was further complicated by Tbilisi’s within Dmitri Sanakoyev’s civil organization position that any repair work had to go through the “People of South Ossetia for Peace.” administrative center in Kurta, which meant The Tbilisi-backed leadership has routinely Tskhinvali would have been forced to deal with supported efforts to circumvent the Tskhinvali Sanakoyev. Although repairs were eventually made separatists. Also this week, an Ossetian conference and the water flow resumed, the conflict zone has was held in the Georgian-controlled village of remained tense with regular shooting incidents and Tamarasheni. High-ranking Georgian officials some fatalities. Kokoiti told Georgian news sources attended the meeting July 22, including Prime Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 25 July 2007 19 in July that Tskhinvali was prepared to use that Western governments will help Tbilisi in their terrorist-type attacks on Georgia. negotiations or at least balance the role of Russia in Despite the high level of tension in the region, the the stalled peace process. Georgian government has stuck to a policy of While economic rehabilitation is a positive step – economic rehabilitation for the villages in the both Georgian and Ossetian villages suffer from a conflict zone. The Georgian beer producer Kazbegi staggering degree of poverty – it is not enough to recently pledged 500,000 lari (roughly $300,000) for restore trust in the Georgian government, especially small and medium business development in South after the short military action against the separatists Ossetia and Saakashvili has repeatedly called for in August of 2004. Rebuilding trust will take time – more investment in the region. The government is and concrete steps like restitution for lands lost also rebuilding roads and participating with the during the war will be needed. If the Georgian OSCE-led rehabilitation program. government attempts to rush to an easy solution, it To date it is too early to tell how much Sanakoyev is possible it could lose any positive achievements it and his Kurta-based de facto government can has made over the past year and further strengthen achieve in the conflict zone. During his nine Kokoiti’s hold over the conflict zone. months in office, tension in the zone has risen considerably, although the conflict’s international profile has also increased – leading to renewed hopes

ELECTION AUTHORITIES IN KAZAKHSTAN WARN OF “BLACK PR” SYNDROME Marat Yermukanov

As contenders for seats in parliament rev up a conducted by the Association of Sociologists and vigorous publicity campaign, candidates Political Scientists in six regions of Kazakhstan and increasingly resort to dirty methods in order to Almaty revealed that 41% of the respondents believe damage the reputation of their rivals and win the no change for the better has taken place in political favor of the electorate. In Kazakhstan, dishonest and economic life of the country since the last tactics used in election campaigns is almost parliamentary elections and 10% of them think normalcy. The latest wave of blackmailing and living standards were worsening over the last ten smear reduces the promises of the Central Election years. Nevertheless, 71% of potential voters are Committee to hold fair and transparent elections to willing to go to the polls on August 18. empty words. Opinion polls show that most of the voters (26.1%) Three weeks away from parliamentary elections to would cast their ballots for the pro-presidential Nur be held according to substantial amendments to the Otan Peoples’ Democratic Party, while the Ak Zhol Constitution, a large proportion of the electorate Democratic Party, rating second in opinion polls, have no clear preference for any of the seven would get 7.1% of the votes. Mainstream opposition political parties on the ballot list. The latest survey forces, such as the Nagyz Ak Zhol Party and the 20 Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 25 July 2007

All-National Social Democratic Party put together, medical service standards, the rising costs of public can at best reckon on 6.3% of the electorate’s utilities, and unemployment. Zharmakhan support. Tuyakbay walked away with another heap of It seems that precisely this awareness of the promises. plummeting voters’ confidence prompt social Generally speaking, this year’s election race is no democrats to slide into a collision course with different from preceding campaigns. Political electoral authorities and pro-presidential forces. A opponents use the slightest pretext to accuse each decade ago, throwing down the gauntlet to other of violating election laws. The editor in chief authorities and populist rhetoric could win most of of the Almaty Info newspaper announced he was the electorate for the opposition camp. In the going to sue Alikhan Baimenov, the leader of the current situation, these simple tactics fail to win Ak Zhol Democratic Party for 12 million tenge popular sympathy. The weakness of the All- allegedly for damages inflicted by Baimenov during National Social-Democratic Party is that it does not the 2005 presidential elections. Baimenov, in his enjoy genuine popular support. Even the members turn, publicly and vehemently denied these of the unregistered Alga opposition party refused to allegations and he would file counterclaims against join the social democrats to form an election block. the editor who, in his words, smeared his reputation Zharmakhan Tuyakbay, the leader of the Social by using deliberate blackmail. Obviously, the Democratic Party, who was eulogized in the run-up election campaign offers to many rivals an excellent to 2005 presidential elections for leaving the opportunity to settle old accounts or ruin opponents, presidential entourage to join the opposition forces, extorting large sums of money as a moral has lost much of his once irresistible charisma after compensation for “libelous statements”. his defeat in the last elections; he did practically Yermukhambet Yertysbayev, the minister of nothing thereafter to maintain his hard-won image culture and information and a candidate on the list of a political leader. of Nur Otan, complained that he was repeatedly The Social Democratic Party, unlike Ak Zhol, is slandered in articles run by the opposition hopelessly alienated from the ethnic values of newspaper Vremia. He appealed to the Central Kazakhs. Such popular demands as the promotion Election Committee to intercede. “We are not an of the Kazakh language in public offices, or social investigative body. It is up to the candidates and financial aid to repatriated Kazakhs, have never themselves to sort out the problems with been on the priority list of the Social Democratic slanderers” retorted Grigori Kulesh, a Central Party. Ironically, party leader Zharmakhan Election Committee spokesman. Tuyakbay comes from South Kazakhstan, the most The so-called “black PR” or smear campaign has densely Kazakh-populated region, with a host of become part and parcel of elections in Kazakhstan. unresolved social ills, the scandalous outbreak of Earlier, Kuandyk Turgankulov, the newly appointed HIV-infection of children in Shymkent being just chairman of the Central Election Committee called one of them. When on July 20 Zharmakhan on political parties to abide by the election law and Tuyakbay toured South Kazakhstan as part of his refrain from mudslinging. But “Black PR”, it seems, election campaign, residents of the cities of will live on. Shymkent and Turkistan pestered him with questions on how he was going to address the long overdue problems of improving of education and Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 25 July 2007 21

NEWS DIGEST

KYRGYZSTAN TO TIGHTEN LAWS ON meeting in St. Petersburg between the Armenian RELIGIOUS GROUPS and Azerbaijani presidents, the "possibilities of 12 July bringing the positions of the two sides closer to each Kyrgyzstan will tighten regulation and surveillance other," and "further steps in the negotiating of religious groups in largely Muslim Central Asian process." U.S. co-Chairman Matthew Bryza was nation, a government official said Thursday, citing quoted on July 9 as saying that the talks have concerns about extremist groups. More than 2,100 reached the stage where the Armenian and religious organizations are currently registered with Azerbaijan foreign ministers have "shown political authorities, said Toigonbek Kalmatov, director of will and taken the negotiations about as far as they the State Agency for Religious Matters. Another can go," and that the two presidents now "need to 400 are believed to be operating illegally in the make some serious decisions." Bryza said the country and are causing "great difficulties," mediators favor a "compromise" between the Kalmatov said, naming a few including Rev. Sun internationally recognized principles of the Myung Moon's Unification Church, the Falun territorial integrity of states and the right to self- Gong spiritual movement, Maharishi Mahesh determination, but that there is "no universal Yogi's Transcendental Meditation movement and formula" for achieving such a compromise. It is not Hizb-ut-Tahrir, a banned group that advocates the clear whether and when the co-chairs will hold a establishment of a worldwide Islamic state. Kyrgyz similar meeting with Oskanian's Azerbaijani laws required that all religious groups be officially counterpart, Elmar Mammadyarov, day.az noted on registered and present an operating charter, July 10. (RFE/RL) Kalmatov told reporters. Authorities are obligated to monitor the groups to ensure they do not violate GEORGIAN PARLIAMENT GIVES GREEN laws, and new legislative proposals would help LIGHT FOR REPATRIATION OF tighten oversight, he said. "These measures have MESKHETIANS become necessary in connection with the great 12 July number of religious movements operating in Deputies approved on July 11 in the third and final Kyrgyzstan, illegally and without registration," he reading by a vote of 117 in favor and 19 against a bill said. He gave no details regarding the new that would pave the way for the return to Georgia of legislation. the Meskhetians who were deported to Central Asia The poor, largely rural ex-Soviet state has been on Soviet leader Josef Stalin's orders in November buffeted by political turmoil for nearly two years 1944, together with their descendants. Those now and there are growing fears of Islamic Meskhetians who want to return to Georgia will extremism, particularly in the poor, densely have to provide documentary evidence that they (or populated Fergana Valley. (AP) their parents) were indeed deported, and lodge a formal application with the Georgian government ARMENIAN FOREIGN MINISTER MEETS by December 31, 2008. The Georgian authorities will WITH KARABAKH MEDIATORS not be obliged to provide those who return with any 12 July financial assistance. The Meskhetians are Muslims, Vartan Oskanian met in Paris on July 10 with the but their ethnogenesis is disputed: some claim they French and Russian co-chairmen of the OSCE are Georgians; others, Turks. They first began Minsk Group that seeks to mediate a solution to the agitating to be allowed to return to Georgia Karabakh conflict, and with a senior U.S. State following the 1957 decree that exonerated the Department official. According to a statement various deported peoples of collaboration with Nazi released by the Armenian Foreign Ministry, the Germany and lifting the travel restrictions imposed discussions focused on the results of the June 9 at the time of their deportation. Unlike the 22 Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 25 July 2007

Chechens, Ingush, Karachais and Balkars, the AZERBAIJANI AND RUSSIAN Meskhetians were for decades refused permission to COMMISSIONS ON DELIMITATION OF return to Georgia, and began doing so only in the BOUNDARIES MEET IN MAKHACHKALA 1980s. Many fled Uzbekistan in 1989 following 13 July ethnic clashes in which some 100 Meskhetians were The 13th meeting of Azerbaijani and Russian killed and resettled in the North Caucasus, from Commissions on delimitation of the boundaries where several thousand have emigrated either to took place in Makhachkala, the Republic of Turkey or the United States. Georgia pledged on Dagestan, July 11-12, Foreign Affairs Ministry’s joining the Council of Europe in 1999 to allow all press service said. The delegates of the relevant Meskhetians who wished to do so to settle in state bodies, experts, and heads of the boundary Georgia, but failed to create conditions for them to regions of Azerbaijan (Gusar, Khachmaz and do so. The number of Meskhetians likely to take Balakan) attended the state commissions’ meeting advantage of the new law to settle in Georgia is led by Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister of estimated at between 40,000 and 100,000. The Azerbaijan Khalaf Khalafov and special envoy of opposition Conservative Party has consistently Russia’s Foreign Affairs Ministry A.Yakovenko. opposed allowing the Meskhetians to return to The meeting participants discussed the issues of Georgia, questioning whether they consider unagreed boundary lines, as well as studied the themselves Georgian, speak Georgian, and will additional legal documents on delimitation of the prove to be loyal citizens. (RFE/RL) state boundaries and maps on land use. The sides agreed to hold the next meeting in Azerbaijan. GEORGIA TO STAY AWAY FROM S. (Azertag) OSSETIA COMMISSION MEETING 12 July SCHOLARS RAISE ALARM OVER DECLINE The Georgian co-chairman of the Joint Control OF DAGHESTAN'S LANGUAGES Commission for the settlement of the conflict 13 July between Georgia and its breakaway South Ossetia Participants at a roundtable discussion in region will stay away from a planned meeting of the Makhachkala on July 12 expressed their concern at commission co-chairmen on Friday, the Russian co- the "lamentable" situation with regard to the chairman said on Thursday. "Unfortunately, I have teaching of the republic's various languages in been unable to persuade Mr. [Merab] Antadze to schools, kavkaz-uzel.ru reported. They noted that join us at the meeting in [the South Ossetian although the republic's constitution affirms that all capital] Tskhinvali. However, the Russian, South ethnic groups are equal, it designates as a "state Ossetian and North Ossetian co-chairmen will go language" only the languages of the 14 titular ahead with the meeting," the Russian co-chairman, nationalities (Avars, Aguls, Azeris, Dargins, Yury Popov, told Interfax. North Ossetia is a Kumyks, Laks, Lezgins, Nogais, Rutuls, Tabasarans, Russian region bordering South Ossetia. (Interfax) Tats, Tsakhurs, Chechens, and Russians). But in fact Russian, which is taught even in kindergartens, TAJIK COURT DISMISSES HEAD-SCARF has usurped the role of state language and a means COMPLAINT of communication between other ethnic groups, 13 July while the languages of the smaller ethnic groups are A Tajik district court in Dushanbe on July 12 ruled in danger of dying out. Radio broadcasting in to dismiss a lawsuit filed by a Tajik student languages other than Russian has been phased out in challenging the constitutionality of a state ban on recent years, while television broadcasting has been wearing Islamic head scarves in schools and drastically reduced. The participants contrasted the universities, according to RFE/RL's Tajik Service. situation in Daghestan, where even senior high- The case, brought by 20-year-old university student school students spend only four hours per week Davlatmoh Ismoilova, was the first legal challenge studying their native language, literature, and to the Tajik ban that was imposed earlier this year. history, with that in Kabardino-Balkaria, where the Ismoilova vowed to appeal the dismissal of the case. comparable figure is 36 hours, and they appealed to (RFE/RL) Daghestan's President Mukhu Aliyev to take immediate measures to protect all the republic's languages. (RFE/RL)

Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 25 July 2007 23

KAZAKHSTAN CENTRAL ELECTION Interfax reported. Esenov was dismissed as COMMITTEE REGISTERED NSDP PARTY Supreme Court chairman for "failing to properly LIST perform his duties and for numerous violations," 16 July and was replaced by Ashgabat Judge Chary The Central Election Commission registered the Khodzhamyradov. Ataev was removed "in party list of the National Social-Democratic Party connection with his appointment to another job," on June 14. CEC press release widespread before the and was replaced by Maimurat Khojamuhammedov session states, the agency reports. As it was for a six-month probationary term. Ataev, a former informed earlier, till the present the CEC registered long-serving deputy minister before his the party list of Nur Otan Party. CEC received the appointment to the full cabinet post by the late lists of seven party organizations, including the President Saparmurat Niyazov in December 2005, is National Democratic Party Nur Otan (its congress also a deputy prime minister. Further changes approved the list of 127 candidates), Party included the appointment of Maysa Rukhaniyat (11), Party Ak zhol (114), the National Yazmuhammedova as the new deputy prime Social-Democratic Party (80), Party Auyl (40), the minister in charge of culture, media, and health-care Communistic National Party of Kazakhstan (22) issues, and the replacement of Textile Industry and the Party of Patriots (13). Registration of party Minister Yklymberdy Paromov with Jemal lists will be prolonged till July 17. Since July 18 the Goklenova, who held the same post before being parties will be able to start pre-election campaign. fired by Niyazov. Yazmuhammedova, a former Extraordinary elections to Majilis of the Parliament deputy governor of the Ahal region, served as the of Kazakhstan (according to party lists) will take head of the country's largest trade union prior to the place on August 18. (Kazakhstan Today) appointment. (RFE/RL)

GEORGIA ANNOUNCES PLAN TO LEASE LOCAL HIZB-UT-TAHRIR LEADER POTI SEAPORT DETAINED IN SOUTHERN KYRGYZSTAN - 16 July MINISTRY In an official statement released by the Georgian 17 July Economy Ministry in Tbilisi, Georgia announced One of the local leaders of the Hizb-ut-Tahrir on July 13 that it plans to lease its Black Sea port of extremist organization, Alisher Iminzhanov, has Poti and 400 hectares of adjacent land as part of a been detained in the south of Kyrgyzstan, the new "free economic zone." The plan, which follows republic's Interior Ministry said on Tuesday. "The recent parliamentary approval of the free economic man was detained in the city of Osh. He was a zone, offers a49-year lease for the port in an senior member of this extremist organization. international tender that is to close on September 14. Iminzhanov was earlier prosecuted for inciting The announcement follows the visit to Poti in religious hatred. An investigation is underway," the February by a group of executives from the United ministry said. Arab Emirates company Dubai World that "A special purpose operation is currently being conducted a preliminary feasibility study of the conducted in the capital ahead of the SCO summit port. The same Dubai-based group has also due on August 16," the Bishkek police department announced plans to invest about $1.5 billion in told Interfax. These efforts "are intended to various real-estate projects in the country. dismantle the activities of extremist (RFE/RL) organizations and to prevent illegal migration on the territory of Bishkek," the department said. TURKMEN PRESIDENT RESHUFFLES Underground extremist organizations could CABINET have up to 5,000 supporters in Kyrgyzstan, 16 July according to specialists of the country's security During a special enlarged cabinet meeting in services. (Interfax) Ashgabat on July 13, Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov announced the INGUSH PRESIDENT'S FAMILY RESIDENCE dismissal of several ministers and officials, COMES UNDER ATTACK, NO FATALITIES – including Turkmen Supreme Court Chairman OFFICIAL Yagsygeldi Esenov and Oil and Gas Minister 17 July Gurbanmurat Ataev, Turkmen television and 24 Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 25 July 2007

The residential area and the house, where Ingush Seven parties are standing, but analysts predict the President Murat Zyazikov and his relatives reside, governing party of President Nursultan Nazarbayev came under grenade fire on Monday evening, an will, once again, win a huge majority. International Ingush Interior Ministry spokesman told Interfax. monitors have judged previous polls to be deeply "The fire was launched with a shoulder-held anti- flawed, and Kazakhstan is under pressure to hold tank grenade launcher. No one was injured in the these elections in a more open manner. The attack," ministry spokesman Yakhya Khadziyev European security organisation OSCE has set up an told Interfax. An investigative team, led by election observation mission in the country, to Ingushetia's prosecutor and Interior Ministry monitor the electoral process. Nur-Otan, the officials, is working at the scene of the attack, he country's ruling party, marked the beginning of the said. An Interior Ministry official earlier reported month-long race with balloons and banners in one that, "the murder of the family of a Russian teacher of Almaty's parks. A few hundred party members early on Monday and the attack on the president's listened as candidates praised President house are part of a plan to upset stability in the Nazarbayev, the head of the party. On the other republic and in southern Russia." side of the city, opposition leaders laid flowers and A source in the Nazran interior department said chanted "Victory is ours!" as they marked the first that the fire hit the house, where the head of the day of campaigning. "We are backed by truth and presidential security service Rustambek Zyazikov justice," Bolat Abilov, one of the leaders, told a resides. "No one was hurt in the attack," he said. group of supporters. "We will get into parliament, Ingushetia's Prosecutor Yury Turygin told Interfax form the government and press ahead with reforms that he would travel to the scene to investigate. "No Kazakhstan has always dreamt about," he is quoted criminal case has been opened thus far. An as saying by Reuters news agency. But analysts investigation must be conducted first," he said. The predict the opposition's chances of gaining a murder of a mathematics teacher, Lyudmila significant presence in parliament as a result of the Teryokhina, and her two children had great 18 August polls are slim. There was only one resonance with the public. Lyudmila and her opposition seat under the previous assembly. Some children were found dead in their house in the observers say that, under pressure from the village of Ordzhonikidzevskaya early on Monday. international community, President Nazarbayev Empty pistol cartridges were discovered at the might allow a greater opposition presence this time. scene. The killing is being probed under murder But one opposition leader is already critical of the charges. (Interfax) way the campaign is going. "We tried to put our TV advertisements... showing what our party is TWO TERROR ATTACKS IN INGUSHETIA: 7 standing for," he told the BBC. "But all TV PEOPLE WOUNDED channels, all of them, denied us. But at the same 18 July time, each evening, you could see a lot of Nur-Otan Gunmen assaulted a vehicle carrying troops, TV advertisements." Even the government admits injuring one person, in the town of Karabulak in that political reform is lagging behind economic Ingushetia at about 02:15 p.m. Moscow time today. changes. Kazakhstan's economy, fuelled by billions As a REGNUM correspondent was told at the of western investment, is growing faster than any Ingushetian interior ministry, a special other in the former Soviet Union. (BBC) investigation group left for the scene of the accident. Earlier today, a bomb detonated during a funeral KYRGYZ SPECIAL-NEEDS KIDS GET ceremony of a school teacher and her children shot LEARNING AID in her home in the village of Ordzhonikidzevskaya. 19 July Six people were hurt. Prosecution started Kyrgyzstan will be getting financial aid to educate investigation on the case. (Regnum) children with special needs. The Asian Development Bank said Thursday it will provide $1 CAMPAIGNING STARTS IN KAZAKHSTAN million to assist the government's program to help 18 July children with learning issues, particularly those Campaigning has begun in Kazakhstan for the from poorer families. "Very few children with parliamentary elections in August. The vote was special needs actually receive education or training, triggered by changes to the constitution that the and most of them remain outside the system of government claims will make parliament stronger. mainstream education," said Asel Chyngysheva, Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 25 July 2007 25 senior project implementation officer of the ADB's towards resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh issue," he Kyrgyz resident mission. The Manila-based agency has said during his campaign. The Organisation for said that there were officially about 17,100 children Security and Cooperation in Europe has been trying with disabilities under the age of 18 in 2004, but to broker a peace deal between Azerbaijan and pointed out that it believes the actual number to be Armenia since the 1994 cease-fire. (Reuters) higher. Of those who were registered with the government, only about one-fifth were enrolled at TURKMENISTAN, CHINA REACH ENERGY specialized institutions, while about 2,650 went to DEAL mainstream schools but faced learning difficulties 20 July there. (UPI) Turkmenistan and China reached a deal on energy, economic and security cooperation during a meeting VOTING BEGINS IN FLEDGLING 'STATE' of leaders in Beijing. They shook hands over 19 July meeting China's massive energy demand with Voting for a new leader started in the breakaway Turkmenistan's natural gas deposits and creating a region of Nagorno-Karabakh on Thursday in an partnership in Central Asia. Chinese Prime election intended to stress the Armenian-populated Minister Wen Jiabao called for a "long-term and region's self-proclaimed independence from stable energy cooperation with mutual benefit," Azerbaijan. The head of the region's election referring to a natural gas pipeline deal each commission Sergey Nasibyan hailed the election country's presidents signed, the Xinhua news campaign as democratic and said local and foreign agency reports. The China National Petroleum observers were monitoring the polls, Armenian Corp. will purchase 1.05 trillion cubic feet of natural television reported. gas a year for 30 years via the as-yet-to-be-built Muslim Azerbaijan, which lost control of Nagorno- Central Asia Gas Pipeline. The billions of dollars Karabakh after a war in the early 1990s, has already deal will end around Russia, which hopes to denounced the election as illegal under international capitalize on its own large gas deposits and China's law. At least 25 percent of the enclave's 91,000 voters needs. Russia imports gas as well. Turkmen have to take part for the 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. (0300 to President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov assured 1500 GMT) election to be considered valid by China it could fulfill its obligation to both Chinese Karabakh authorities. Anyone taking over 50 and Russian demand, Kommersant reports. (UPI) percent of the votes in the first round wins outright. Karabakh seceded from Azerbaijan in the 1990s and 2-3 MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE STRUCK proclaimed independence, though this has not been ALMATY recognized by the rest of the world. No 20 July international organizations will monitor the vote, in 2-3 magnitude earthquake struck Almaty, the agency which five hopefuls are running to replace reports referring to the press service of city Rescue Karabakh's current leader Arkady Gukasyan, who is service. According to the press service, the epicenter due to step down after holding the post for two five- of earthquake was in the area of ridge Halyk-Tau, year terms. Bako Saakyan, a 46-year-old former 402 kilometers to the south east of Almaty, on the head of Karabakh's security service who is openly territory of China. In the epicenter the earthquake supported by the incumbent, is the favorite to win. force reached 12.8 by Richter scale. (Kazakhstan His main rival is the region's deputy foreign Today) minister Masis Mailyan, aged 39. Many of the Azeri minority fled during the fighting, which claimed TAJIK MPS APPROVE INTERNET CURBS more than 35,000 lives before a cease-fire was 20 July brokered in 1994, and the region is now populated Tajikistan's parliament has approved legislation almost entirely by ethnic Armenians, who enjoy making it a criminal offence to publish false or Christian Armenia's backing. Both leading offensive information on the internet. The bill must contenders are adamant on the main issue -- full be signed off by President Emomali Rakhmon independence for Karabakh. Saakyan says he wants before becoming law. Under the proposal, anyone to make the sliver of land and its 140,000 people "an who publishes statements that "offend dignity" may example of democratic rule" to persuade the face imprisonment. Tajik media are largely state- international community to recognize Karabakh's run and human rights groups say the country lacks independence. "Creating civil society is the way freedom of expression. While only a small 26 Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 25 July 2007 proportion of the mountainous country's six million "The main aim is to create comfortable conditions people have access to the internet, it provides a rare for the Turkmen people on vacation," space for dissent, campaigners say. Human rights Berdymukhamedov said. Turkmenbashi is located groups have criticised Tajik authorities for using about 700 kilometers from Ashgabat, the capital of legislation against slandering the president to the former Soviet republic, and directly across the restrict political debate. "In practice, the defamation Caspian from Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan. The provisions are often applied not only to factually port was founded in the 19th century as a Russian false attacks on reputation, but when the media fort. It was renamed in 1993 for Niyazov, who called criticises politicians," the London-based human himself Turkmenbashi, the father of all Turkmen. rights group Article 19 said in a report published on (AP) Friday. (BBC) RUSSIAN AND AZERBAIJANI ENERGY-RICH TURKMENISTAN WANTS DELEGATIONS AGREE ON MUTUAL FOREIGN INVESTMENT FOR CASPIAN SEA BROADCASTING RESORT 23 July 22 July The delegations of Azerbaijan and Russian Turkmenistan announced plans to spend $1 billion Federation had talks July 23 to discuss mutual and seek additional foreign investment to build a broadcasting of Russian and Azerbaijan major tourist resort on the Caspian Sea. The plans broadcasting agencies’ TV programs in both for Turkmenbashi, the main port of the energy-rich countries. The delegation of Azerbaijan includes Central Asian country, were presented July 21 at a representatives of the Ministries of Foreign Affairs, government meeting attended by Turkmenistan's Communication and Information Technologies, president, Gurbanguli Berdymukhamedov, and “Azerbaijan Television and Radio Programs” joint- representatives of 40 foreign companies. stock company, National Television and Radio Turkmenbashi, which until 1993 was called Council. The delegation of Russia led by Deputy Krasnovodsk, is home to Turkmenistan's largest oil Minister of Culture and Communications Leonid refinery. The city also has 16 kilometers of Nadirov is comprised of representatives of the shoreline. The government said Saturday it would Russian Ministries of Foreign Affairs, Culture and create the first free economic zone in the country to Communications, “Channel One” joint-stock attract investment for building tourism company, RTR TV channel. Russian Ambassador infrastructure and also for the general economic in Azerbaijan Vasiliy Istratov was present at the development of the port. International oil and gas meeting. The delegations agreed the draft companies have been intensifying their competition agreement on terms and conditions of broadcasting for access to Turkmenistan's vast energy resources. of the Russian TV channels in Azerbaijan and Foreign access was all but blocked under Azerbaijani ones in Russia. At the same time, it was Saparmurat Niyazov, Turkmenistan's long-ruling decided that experts of both countries would autocratic president, but since his death in continue to discuss the draft technical contract on December the new government has been more broadcasting services. (Azertag) welcoming of foreign investment in the energy sector. On July 21, the Turkmenistan government AFGHANISTAN'S FORMER KING DIES signed an agreement with Russian independent gas AGED 92 producer Itera to build a $800 million urea plant in 23 July Turkmenbashi. In recent months, Turkmenistan Former King Mohammad Zahir Shah, whose 40- has given Russian oil giant OAO Lukoil approval to year reign until his exile in 1973 coincided with one work three fields in the Caspian and extended an of the most peaceful periods in Afghanistan's recent invitation to Chevron Corp. to open an office. history, died on Monday, aged 92. "With paramount Only two major foreign companies already extract grief, I would like to inform my countrymen that ... oil in the Turkmen sector of the Caspian shelf: Mohammad Zahir Shah has bid farewell to this Malaysia's national oil company, Petroliam mortal world," President Hamid Karzai told Nasional Bhd.; and Dragon Oil PLC of the United reporters at the presidential palace. State television Arab Emirates. The plans for Turkmenbashi call interrupted its normal broadcast and a woman for building 60 hotels, restaurants, a 3,000-seat dressed black with a black headscarf announced stadium, sports facilities and shopping centers. Zahir Shah had died. Prayers and recitals from the Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 25 July 2007 27

Koran followed. The former king died in his bed of ordinary Afghans. There were no immediate after months of illness. Describing him as the reports of civilian casualties during the battle, but founder of Afghanistan's democracy and a symbol those reports sometimes take a day or two to of national unity, Karzai announced three days of surface. In Zabul province, meanwhile, national mourning for the former king and ordered Afghanistan's Ministry of Interior said Afghan flags to be flown at half mast. Zahir Shah ruled police forces killed 14 "enemies" during a 12-hour Afghanistan from 1933 until he was deposed by his battle Sunday, including a Taliban commander cousin in 1973. He lived in exile in Italy before identified as Mohammad Hassan. The ministry said returning home as an ordinary citizen in 2002, but Hassan was the head of administrative affairs was accorded the honorary title "father of the during the Taliban's rule. (AP) nation." "When I saw the mountains of my country, my RUSSIA NO LONGER GEORGIA'S BIGGEST people, my friends -- what is better than this," he TRADE PARTNER, STATISTICS SHOW said shortly after his return. "I wish just to be able 23 July to do things for my country and serve it." Zahir Trade between Georgia and Russia fell 4.4 percent Shah came from a long line of ethnic Pashtun rulers to $322m in the first quarter of 2007, compared to the and is a distant relative of President Karzai. The same period a year earlier, the Georgian State former king's reign is remembered as one of the Statistics Department reported, indicating that this most tranquil periods of Afghanistan's turbulent was the first time that Russia has ceded its leading history. (Reuters) position in Georgia's foreign trade to Turkey, whose contribution stood at $387m in Q1 2007. Georgia's US: 50 TALIBAN KILLED IN AFGHANISTAN trade with the CIS has also dropped. Where in 23 July January-June 2006, the CIS's share of Georgia's U.S.-led coalition and Afghan soldiers "routed" a overall foreign trade stood at 41 percent, it has large number of Taliban fighters in a two-day battle shrunk to 37 percent this year . At the same time, in southern Afghanistan's poppy-growing heartland, Georgia's trade with Ukraine has surged 41 percent killing more than 50 suspected militants, the to $263m, which put the republic at 3rd place among coalition said Monday. The battle in Helmand Georgia's foreign trade partners. Overall, Georgia's province's Sangin district saw the insurgents trade reached $2.7bn in H1 2007, a 37-percent attempt to shoot down a coalition aircraft and attack increase from January-June 2006, with exports soldiers with a suicide car bomb, the coalition said increasing 20.1 percent to $548.6m. (RBC) in a statement. Coalition aircraft dropped four bombs during the engagement, and Afghan forces AZERBAIJANI AND RUSSIAN EXPERTS TO counted "more than four dozen" insurgents killed, it DISCUSS BORDER DELIMITATION IN said. The Sangin district chief, Eizatullah Khan, BALAKEN said a big group of Taliban had attacked a convoy of 24 July vehicles Sunday afternoon. He said the battle left The group of Azerbaijani and Russian experts will more than 30 Taliban dead and many wounded. discuss in Balaken, Azerbaijan the issues concerning Coalition and Afghan forces "only engaged delimitation of the parts of borders that have not legitimate military and enemy targets to minimize been agreed yet. The final document on the border the potential of Afghan casualties," said U.S. Maj. research will be put onto the agenda of the 14th joint Chris Belcher, a coalition spokesman. "We did this meting of the State Commission on delimitation of even as the insurgents tried to create some borders between Azerbaijan and Russia to be held in propaganda value by placing innocent civilians in Baku. During the 13th meeting held July 11-12, the harms way." Civilian casualties have been a major sides decided to work on the proposals to make their problem for U.S. and NATO forces this year. positions closer and search for a common approach Taliban militants often fight in populated areas or to the uncoordinated parts of the border. (Azertag) seek cover in civilian homes, leading to the deaths