Functional Finance and Full Employment
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The Making of Hawks and Doves: Inflation Experiences on the FOMC
The Making of Hawks and Doves? Ulrike Malmendier1,∗ UC Berkeley, NBER, CEPR, and CESIfo Stefan Nagel2 University of Chicago, NBER, CEPR, and CESIfo Zhen Yan3 Cornerstone Research Abstract Personal experiences of inflation strongly influence the hawkish or dovish leanings of central bankers. For all members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) since 1951, we estimate an adaptive learning rule based on their lifetime inflation data. The resulting experience-based forecasts have significant predictive power for members' FOMC voting decisions, the hawkishness of the tone of their speeches, as well as the heterogeneity in their semi-annual inflation projections. Averaging over all FOMC members present at a meeting, inflation experiences also help to explain the federal funds target rate, over and above conventional Taylor rule components. Keywords: Monetary policy, Experience effects, Availability bias, Inflation forecasts, Federal Funds rate JEL: E50, E03, D84 ?We thank Scott Baker, Michael McMahon, Ricardo Reis, David Robinson, Christina Romer, David Romer, Jeremy Stein, and workshop participants at the Bank of Finland (Finlands Bank/Suomen Pankki), Bank of Sweden (Sveriges Riksbank), Harvard University, London School of Economics, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Northwestern University, Stanford University, Stockholm School of Economics, Temple University, UC Berkeley, University of Bonn, University of Chicago, University of Michigan Economics Department and Law School, Vanderbilt University, as well as the NBER SI Monetary Economics meeting and the American Economic Assocation meeting, Research in Behavioral Finance Conference 2016, and Annual Research Conference of the European Central Bank for helpful comments. Canyao Liu, Jonas Sobott, Marius G¨unzel,Jeffrey Zeidel, and Albert Lee provided excellent research assistance. -
An Assessment of Modern Monetary Theory
An assessment of modern monetary theory M. Kasongo Kashama * Introduction Modern monetary theory (MMT) is a so-called heterodox economic school of thought which argues that elected governments should raise funds by issuing money to the maximum extent to implement the policies they deem necessary. While the foundations of MMT were laid in the early 1990s (Mosler, 1993), its tenets have been increasingly echoed in the public arena in recent years. The surge in interest was first reflected by high-profile British and American progressive policy-makers, for whom MMT has provided a rationale for their calls for Green New Deals and other large public spending programmes. In doing so, they have been backed up by new research work and publications from non-mainstream economists in the wake of Mosler’s work (see, for example, Tymoigne et al. (2013), Kelton (2017) or Mitchell et al. (2019)). As the COVID-19 crisis has been hitting the global economy since early this year, the most straightforward application of MMT’s macroeconomic policy agenda – that is, money- financed fiscal expansion or helicopter money – has returned to the forefront on a wider scale. Some consider not only that it is “time for helicopters” (Jourdan, 2020) but also that this global crisis must become a trigger to build on MMT precepts, not least in the euro area context (Bofinger, 2020). The MMT resurgence has been accompanied by lively political discussions and a heated economic debate, bringing fierce criticism from top economists including P. Krugman, G. Mankiw, K. Rogoff or L. Summers. This short article aims at clarifying what is at stake from a macroeconomic stabilisation perspective when considering MMT implementation in advanced economies, paying particular attention to the euro area. -
India Policy Forum July 13–16, 2020
Inflation Targeting in India: An Interim Assessment Barry Eichengreen University of California, Berkeley Poonam Gupta World Bank Rishabh Choudhary World Bank India Policy Forum July 13–16, 2020 NCAER | National Council of Applied Economic Research NCAER India Centre, 11 Indraprastha Estate, New Delhi 110002 Tel: +91-11-23452698, www.ncaer.org NCAER | Quality . Relevance . Impact Inflation Targeting in India: An Interim Assessment* Barry Eichengreen University of California, Berkeley Poonam Gupta World Bank Rishabh Choudhary World Bank India Policy Forum July 13–16, 2020 Abstract We provide an interim assessment of India’s inflation-targeting (IT) regime. We show that the RBI is best characterised as a flexible inflation targeter: contrary to criticism, it does not neglect changes in the output gap when setting policy rates. Rather than acting as an “inflation nutter,” it has if anything adjusted policy rates by less in response to inflation following the change in regime. We interpret this as an increase in policy credibility: smaller changes in the policy rate are needed to signal the central bank’s intent. This is consistent with the fact that the inflation expectations of forecasters have become better anchored with the shift to IT, and that other inflation-related outcomes are more stable than before. We also ask whether the shift to IT has enhanced the credibility of monetary policy such that the RBI is in a position to take extraordinary action in response to the COVID-19 crisis. We argue that the rules and understandings governing IT regimes come with escape clauses allowing central banks to disregard their inflation targets, under specific circumstances satisfied by the COVID-19 pandemic. -
Dove Or Hawk? Characterizing Monetary Policy Regime Switches in India
UC Santa Cruz UC Santa Cruz Previously Published Works Title Dove or Hawk? Characterizing monetary policy regime switches in India Permalink https://escholarship.org/uc/item/06s5812z Authors Hutchison, MM Sengupta, R Singh, N Publication Date 2013-09-01 DOI 10.1016/j.ememar.2013.05.005 License https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ 4.0 Peer reviewed eScholarship.org Powered by the California Digital Library University of California Emerging Markets Review 16 (2013) 183–202 Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect Emerging Markets Review journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/emr Dove or Hawk? Characterizing monetary policy regime switches in India☆ Michael M. Hutchison a,⁎, Rajeswari Sengupta b, Nirvikar Singh a a University of California, Santa Cruz, USA b Institute for Financial Management and Research, Chennai, India article info abstract Article history: The past two decades have witnessed a worldwide move by emerging Received 7 March 2013 markets to adopt explicit or implicit inflation targeting regimes. A Received in revised form 15 May 2013 notable and often discussed exception to this trend, of course, is China Accepted 16 May 2013 which follows a pegged exchange rate regime supported by capital Available online 25 May 2013 controls. Another major exception is India. It is not clear how to characterize the monetary regime or identify the nominal monetary JEL classification: anchor in India. Is central bank policy in India following a predictable E4 fl fl E5 rule that is heavily in uenced by a quasi in ation target? And how has fi F3 the monetary regime been affected by the gradual process of nancial F4 liberalization in India? To address these points, we investigate monetary policy regime change in India using a Markov switching model to Keywords: estimate a time-varying Taylor-type rule for the Reserve Bank of India. -
Asymmetries in the Monetary Policy Reaction Function: Evidence from India
Asymmetries in the Monetary Policy Reaction Function: Evidence from India Abstract This paper analyzes the reaction function of monetary authority in India from 1996Q1 to 2018Q4 using nonlinear Taylor rule. It has been found that monetary pol- icy reaction function (MPRF) in India is asymmetric and is influenced by the state of the economy, determined by the lagged interest rate. To capture such asymmetry, we have used a set of nonlinear models including smooth transition regression (STR) model, threshold regression (TR) model and Markov-Switching regression (MSR) model. The analysis discloses that Reserve Bank of India (RBI) aggressively re- acts towards output gap during recessionary periods compared to non-recessionary periods. This exhibits that preference of monetary authority in India may better be characterized as recession avoidance preference compared to inflation avoidance preference. Further, we have found a high degree of inertia in the policy rates of the RBI. Keywords: Monetary Policy Taylor rule Regime-Switching Asymmetric prefer- ences. JEL: E52 E58 E42 1 Introduction Taylor(1993) rule, that describes the reaction of monetary authority toward inflation and output gap has dominated much of the monetary policy literature since the early 1990s (i.e. Jung(2017) and Asso, Kahn, and Leeson(2010)). One of the reason is that Taylor rule is simplistic in nature and clearer in describing the behaviour of monetary authority. As a result, it has widely been used as a policy tool to guide, design and evaluate the behaviour of monetary authority. However, a basic flaw with this rule is its 1 underlying assumption of linearity which considers equal reaction of monetary authority towards inflation or output gap above and below it's target. -
The International Monetary and Financial
April 2016 The Bulletin Vol. 7 Ed. 4 Official monetary and financial institutions ▪ Asset management ▪ Global money and credit Lagarde’s lead Women in central banks Ezechiel Copic on gold’s boost from negative rates José Manuel González-Páramo on monetary policy Michael Kalavritinos on Latin American funds Christian Noyer on threat to London’s euro role Paul Tucker on geopolitics and the dollar You don’t thrive for 230 years by standing still. As one of the oldest, continuously operating financial institutions in the world, BNY Mellon has endured and prospered through every economic turn and market move since our founding over 230 years ago. Today, BNY Mellon remains strong and innovative, providing investment management and investment services that help our clients to invest, conduct business and transact with assurance in markets all over the world. bnymellon.com ©2016 The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation. All rights reserved. BNY Mellon is the corporate brand for The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation. The Bank of New York Mellon is supervised and regulated by the New York State Department of Financial Services and the Federal Reserve and authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority. The Bank of New York Mellon London branch is subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. Products and services referred to herein are provided by The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation and its subsidiaries. Content is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide authoritative financial, legal, regulatory or other professional advice. -
The Monetary and Fiscal Nexus of Neo-Chartalism: a Friendly Critique
JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC ISSUES Vol. XLVII No. 1 March 2013 DOI 10.2753/JEI0021-3624470101 The Monetary and Fiscal Nexus of Neo-Chartalism: A Friendly Critique Marc Lavoie Abstract: A number of post-Keynesian authors, called the neo-chartalists, have argued that the government does not face a budget constraint similar to that of households and that government with sovereign currencies run no risk of default, even with high debt-to-GDP ratio. This stands in contrast to countries in the eurozone, where the central bank does not normally purchase sovereign debt. While these claims now seem to be accepted by some economists, neo-chartalists have also made a number of controversial claims, including that the government spends simply by crediting a private-sector-bank account at the central bank; that the government does need to borrow to deficit-spend; and that taxes do not finance government expenditures. This paper shows that these surprising statements do have some logic, once one assumes the consolidation of the government sector and the central bank into a unique entity, the state. The paper further argues, however, that these paradoxical claims end up being counter-productive since consolidation is counter-factual. Keywords: central bank, clearing and settlement system, eurozone, neo-chartalism JEL Classification Codes: B5, E5, E63 The global financial crisis has exposed the weaknesses of mainstream economics and it has given a boost to heterodox theories, in particular, Keynesian theories. The mainstream view about the irrelevance of fiscal activism has been strongly criticized by the active use of fiscal policy in the midst of the global financial crisis. -
Financial Globalization: Culprit, Survivor Or Casualty of the Great Crisis?
Financial Globalization Culprit, Survivor or Casualty of the Great Crisis? A publication of the Yale Center for the Study of Globalization Financial Globalization Culprit, Survivor or Casualty of the Great Crisis? A publication of the Yale Center for the Study of Globalization From the proceedings of a conference by the same name, held on November 12 and 13, 2009 Yale University New Haven, Connecticut Financial Globalization: Culprit, Survivor or Casualty of the Great Crisis? A Yale Center for the Study of Globalization eBook Yale Center for the Study of Globalization Betts House 393 Prospect Street New Haven, CT 06511 USA Tel: (203) 432-1900 Email: [email protected] Web: www.ycsg.yale.edu ©Yale Center for the Study of Globalization, 2010 The papers contained in this book are based on presentations from the conference Financial Globalization: Culprit, Survivor or Casualty of the Great Crisis?, organized by the Yale Center for the Study of Globalization at Yale University in New Haven, Connecticut on November 12 and 13, 2009. The conference was made possible by generous support from the Ford Foundation. Yale Center for the Study of Globalization The Yale Center for the Study of Globalization (YCSG) was established in 2001 to enhance understanding of this fundamental process and to promote exchanges of information and ideas about globalization between Yale and the policy world. The Center is devoted to examining the impact of our increasingly integrated world on individuals, communities, and nations. Globalization presents challenges and opportunities. The Center’s purpose is to support the creation and dissemination of ideas for seizing the opportunities and overcoming the challenges. -
In Fed Watchers' Eyes: Hawks, Doves and Monetary Policy
In Fed Watchers’ Eyes: Hawks, Doves and Monetary Policy Klodiana Istrefi1,2 July 2018, WP #725 ABSTRACT I construct a novel measure of policy preferences of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as perceived in public. This measure is based on newspaper and financial media coverage of 130 FOMC members serving during 1960-2015. Narratives reveal that about 70 percent of these FOMC members are perceived to have had persistent policy preferences over time, as either inflation-fighting hawks or growth-promoting doves. The rest are perceived as swingers, switching between types, or remained an unknown quantity to markets. Hawk and Dove perceptions capture "true" tendencies as expressed in preferred rates, forecasts and dissents of these FOMC members well. At the FOMC level the composition of hawks and doves varies significantly, featuring slow- and fast-switching hawkish and dovish regimes, due to the rotation of voting rights each year, members’ turnover and swings in preferences. Keywords: Monetary Policy, Federal Reserve, FOMC, Policy Preferences, Inflation JEL classification: E43, E47, E63, G12 1Banque de France, [email protected] Working Papers reflect the opinions of the authors and do not necessarily express the views of the Banque de France. This document is available on publications.banque-france.fr/en NON-TECHNICAL SUMMARY Commentators on monetary policy and market participants often refer to central bankers with labels hawk and dove, where a hawk is thought of assigning a higher priority to fighting inflation and a dove to supporting more output growth and employment. This paper quantifies these perceptions about the FOMC, the monetary policy decision-making body in the US. -
Inflation Targeting in India: an Interim Assessment1 Barry Eichengreen, Poonam Gupta, and Rishabh Choudhary
Policy Research Working Paper 9422 Public Disclosure Authorized Inflation Targeting in India An Interim Assessment Public Disclosure Authorized Barry Eichengreen Poonam Gupta Rishabh Choudhary Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice January 2021 Policy Research Working Paper 9422 Abstract This paper provides an assessment of India’s inflation-tar- shift to inflation-targeting has enhanced the credibility of geting regime. It shows that the Reserve Bank of India is monetary policy such that the Reserve Bank of India is best characterized as a flexible inflation targeter: contrary in a position to take extraordinary action in response to to criticism, it does not neglect changes in the output gap the Covid-19 crisis. The paper argues that the rules and when setting policy rates. The paper does not find that understandings governing inflation-targeting regimes come the Reserve Bank of India became more hawkish following with escape clauses allowing central banks to shelve their the transition to inflation-targeting; to the contrary, adjust- inflation targets temporarily, under specific circumstances ing for inflation and the output gap, policy rates became satisfied by the Covid-19 pandemic. The paper provides lower, not higher. Some evidence suggests that inflation has evidence that inflation-targeting central banks were able become better anchored: increases in actual inflation do to respond more forcefully to the Covid-19 crisis, consis- less to excite inflation expectations, indicative of improved tent with the idea that inflation expectations were better anti-inflation credibility. The question is whether the anchored, providing more policy room for maneuver. This paper is a product of the Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice. -
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES PERCEIVED FOMC: the MAKING of HAWKS, DOVES and SWINGERS Michael D. Bordo Klodiana Istrefi Working Pape
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES PERCEIVED FOMC: THE MAKING OF HAWKS, DOVES AND SWINGERS Michael D. Bordo Klodiana Istrefi Working Paper 24650 http://www.nber.org/papers/w24650 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 May 2018, Revised June 2021 The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Banque de France or the National Bureau of Economic Research. We thank Jonathan Rose for his discussion and Alan Blinder, Yuri Gorodnichenko, Amy Nakamura, Rob Roy McGregor, David Papell, Barbara Rossi and participants at ASSA 2020, at the Shadow Open Market Committee (SOMC) 2018 Fall Meeting, at the SOMC 2019 Conference, at the seminar at the University of California, Berkeley, at the Federal Reserve of Atlanta, at the Federal Reserve of Chicago, at the Bank of England, University of Houston and UNC Charlotte for comments and suggestions. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications. © 2018 by Michael D. Bordo and Klodiana Istrefi. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Perceived FOMC: The Making of Hawks, Doves and Swingers Michael D. Bordo and Klodiana Istrefi NBER Working Paper No. 24650 May 2018, Revised June 2021 JEL No. E03,E50,E61 ABSTRACT An important and open question in monetary economics is how the Federal Reserve makes its policy decisions. -
Hawks and Doves at the Federal Reserve
Hawks and Doves at the Federal Reserve Michael D Bordo, Rutgers University and the Hoover Institution, Stanford University Shadow Open Market Committee Meeting Harvard Club, New York City, New York October 19, 2018 1 Introduction The FOMC is close to a turning point. It is raising the policy rate at a measured pace to normalize monetary policy. At present the U.S. economy is in excellent shape with low unemployment (3.7%) and inflation close to its 2 % target. As long as these conditions continue the FOMC will continue its gradual tightening cycle. However, if inflation increases much beyond two per cent the FOMC is likely to tighten more leading to the possibility of triggering a recession. Even if that does not happen, other shocks including fiscal tightening as the Trump tax cuts end and a U.S. tariff -induced unraveling of global supply chains and a slowdown in East Asian aggregate demand could lead to a downturn. This would be nothing new. The Fed has mistimed its exit strategy in business cycle recoveries in every episode (with the exception of four) since 1920 (Bordo and Landon Lane 2012). How and when the Fed will react when the situation becomes tricky may be related to both the composition of the FOMC between governors and presidents and the policy preferences of its members-- whether they are hawks, doves or swingers. Normally the FOMC should have 12 voting members, 7 Governors appointed by the President and 5 Reserve bank Presidents (of whom New York is always present and the other four were on a rotating basis) who are appointed by their boards of directors.