Colchester Borough Council, Braintree District Council, Tendring District Council and Essex County Council North Essex Garden Communities Employment & Demographic Studies Final Report April 2017 Cambridge Econometrics
[email protected] Cambridge, UK www.camecon.com North Essex Garden Communities Employment & Demographic Studies Cambridge Econometrics’ mission is to provide rigorous, accessible and relevant independent economic analysis to support strategic planners and policy-makers in business and government, doing work that we are interested in and can be proud of. Cambridge Econometrics Limited is owned by a charitable body, the Cambridge Trust for New Thinking in Economics. www.neweconomicthinking.org Cambridge Econometrics and SQW 2 North Essex Garden Communities Employment & Demographic Studies Authorisation and Version History Version Date Authorised for Description release by 1.0 28/04/17 Mike May-Gillings Final Report (Associate Director) 3 North Essex Garden Communities Employment & Demographic Studies Contents Page 1 Introduction 9 2 Demographic modelling 11 2.1 Introduction 11 2.2 The Chelmer Population and Housing Model 11 2.3 Assumptions 11 2.4 Demographic profile and implications for West of Braintree 13 2.5 Demographic profile and implications for Colchester Braintree Borders19 2.6 Demographic profile and implications for Tendring Colchester Borders26 3 Approach to analysing future employment 32 3.1 A framework for considering future employment growth 32 3.2 Introducing the employment scenarios 39 4 Employment scenarios 41