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Sarah V. Marsden Phd Thesis

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Sarah V. Marsden Phd Thesis HOW TERRORISM ENDS : UNDERSTANDING THE OUTCOMES OF VIOLENT POLITICAL CONTESTATION Sarah Victoria Marsden A Thesis Submitted for the Degree of PhD at the University of St Andrews 2013 Full metadata for this item is available in Research@StAndrews:FullText at: http://research-repository.st-andrews.ac.uk/ Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10023/3970 This item is protected by original copyright This item is licensed under a Creative Commons License How Terrorism Ends Understanding the Outcomes of Violent Political Contestation Sarah Victoria Marsden This thesis is submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy School of International Relations University of St Andrews July 2013 ii Abstract Existing scholarship suggests terrorism is an ineffective method of political contestation: groups rarely achieve their political objectives and are often disrupted by the security services. These findings invite us to look again at the dominant rational choice paradigm, which suggests that terrorism is selected as the best strategy to achieve predetermined goals. Unpicking the assumptions underpinning this model using historical case studies, comparative analysis and typology development, this thesis broadens our interpretation of what those who use terrorism seek to achieve. It does so via a tripartite framework. First, employing a new reading of American pragmatist thought, interpreting militant group goals as culturally and socially mediated problems opens up a new vista of outcomes, in particular examining the way terrorism seeks to change relations between people. Second, using Social Movement Theory as its organising framework, an empirically derived typology of militant groups sets out the background political conditions and organisational characteristics of 28 dormant groups. Using existing models of interpreting outcomes to assess these historical cases demonstrates the unmet challenges of providing robust explanations for why terrorism ends and what it achieves. Third, the thesis explores the promise of a mechanism and process-led approach to explaining outcomes. It does so through in-depth examination of two historical case studies: Kach and the Aden- Abyan Islamic Army. Despite being classified as failures, using largely neglected primary sources, the case studies reveal a range of fascinating and important outcomes that still resonate in Israel and Yemen today. Most of these methodological and conceptual tools are being applied to the question of terrorism’s outcomes for only the first or second time. In doing so, this thesis offers greater depth than existing scholarship on how terrorism ends, by looking beyond measures such as success and failure in interpreting outcomes, whilst affording greater breadth through its ability to make comparative assessments at the level of mechanisms and processes. The result is a more detailed and robust set of explanations as to how terrorism ends and what it achieves, illustrated through detailed historical case studies of two interesting, yet often neglected, groups. v For my parents. vi Table of Contents Abstract ......................................................................................................................... ii Chapter 1: Introduction .................................................................................................. 1 Understanding Terrorism’s Outcomes ....................................................................... 3 Conceptualisation and Definition ............................................................................... 5 Analytical Approach and Research Questions ........................................................... 5 Chapter Preview ......................................................................................................... 7 Chapter 2: Understanding Terrorism’s Outcomes: Concepts, Debates and Measures 10 Individual Outcomes ............................................................................................... 12 Tactical Outcomes .................................................................................................. 15 Organisational Outcomes ....................................................................................... 17 Strategic Outcomes ................................................................................................. 19 Ultimate Outcomes ................................................................................................. 22 Strategic, Rational Actors? .................................................................................... 25 Pragmatist Theory of Social Mechanisms ............................................................ 28 Chapter 3: Typology and Social Movement Theory: Organising Principles ............... 32 Utility of Typology................................................................................................... 33 Typologising Terrorism............................................................................................ 34 Common Problems with Typology .......................................................................... 41 Social Movement Theory ......................................................................................... 42 Social Movement Theory Framework...................................................................... 45 Resource mobilisation .......................................................................................... 45 Political opportunities ........................................................................................... 48 Conclusion ................................................................................................................ 51 Chapter 4: Methodology .............................................................................................. 52 Research Design ....................................................................................................... 52 Group Identification ................................................................................................. 53 Social Movement Theory ......................................................................................... 57 Typology Development Source Data and Coding.................................................... 58 Typology Development ............................................................................................ 60 Multidimensional Partial Order Scalogram by Coordinates................................. 60 Comparative Analysis and Case-studies .................................................................. 63 Case study source data .......................................................................................... 65 Epistemology and Methods ...................................................................................... 66 Conclusion ................................................................................................................ 68 Chapter 5: Typology of Militant Groups ..................................................................... 70 Multidimensional Partial Order Scalogram Analysis by Coordinates ..................... 70 Interpreting the scalogram .................................................................................... 74 Examining the inter-correlations between variables ......................................... 74 Goodness of fit measures .................................................................................. 75 Interpreting the typology................................................................................... 76 Political opportunity external variables ................................................................ 79 Typology .................................................................................................................. 83 Placing terrorism in context .................................................................................. 84 Typology as a foundation for explaining how terrorism ends .............................. 88 Conclusion ................................................................................................................ 90 Chapter 6: Explaining Terrorism’s Outcomes ............................................................. 92 Assessing the Outcomes of Violent Political Contestation ...................................... 92 Organisational outcomes ...................................................................................... 93 Policy outcomes .................................................................................................... 99 vii Explaining Terrorism’s Outcomes ......................................................................... 103 Explaining Terrorism Through the Lens of Contentious Politics .......................... 110 Mechanisms and processes in the move away from terrorism ........................... 111 Chapter 7: Kach ......................................................................................................... 114 Methodology and Data ........................................................................................... 115 The Jewish Defence League: An Emerging Repertoire of Contention .................. 116 Kach: Genesis and Initial Conditions ..................................................................... 117 Political Actors, Identities and Ideology ................................................................ 119 Kach’s agenda ....................................................................................................
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