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Download Guidance Paper INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC SUPPORTING MATERIAL Guidance Papers on the Cross Cutting Issues of the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC July 2000 Edited by R. Pachauri, T. Taniguchi and K. Tanaka Supporting material prepared for consideration by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This supporting material has not been subject to formal IPCC review process. Copyright ○C 2000 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) c/o World Meteorological Organisation 7 bis, Avenue de la Paix C.P.No. 2300 1211 Geneva 2 Switzerland Phone: 41-22-730-82 08/84 Fax: 41-22-730-80 25 E-mail: [email protected] Internet: http://www.ipcc.ch All rights reserved Printed in Japan First printing July 2000 Available on request from: Global Industrial and Social Progress Research Institute (GISPRI) 2-1-1 Toranomon, Minato-ku 1050001 Tokyo Japan Phone: 81-3-5563-8800 Fax: 81-3-5563-8810 E-mail: [email protected] Internet: http://www.gispri.or.jp ISBN 4-9980908-0-1 2 Preface The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) completed its Second Assessment Report in 1995. The IPCC has three Working Groups that focus on different aspects of climate change, viz. natural science, impacts, and mitigation. However, there are several issues that are common to these working groups, such as the consistent use of terms and conceptual frameworks. For the Third Assessment Report (TAR), the IPCC recognizes the importance of consistency within the output of the three Working Groups in dealing with these ‘cross-cutting’ issues. The cross cutting issues selected for the TAR include: (a) Perspective on development, equity and sustainability (DES) (b) Costing methods (c) Frameworks for decision making, including cost-benefit analysis (d) Uncertainties (e) Integrated assessment (f) Scenarios (g) Biogeochemical/ ecological feedback (h) Sinks Guidance papers have been prepared for the first four issues in order to help TAR authors in making more consistent use of terms and concepts in their chapters. Issues (e) to (h) are to be covered mainly by the Special Reports. This report comprises these four Guidance Papers and a Users Guide for Cross Cutting Issues Guidance Papers. Users Guide consists of Overview, Important Issues, and Check Lists. This report also includes the summaries and conclusions of the following IPCC Expert Meetings, which were held to deepen understanding of the issues among authors as well as to facilitate the completion of guidance papers § IPCC Expert Meeting on DES (1st), April 27-29, 1999, in Sri Lanka § IPCC Expert Meeting on Costing methods, June 29-July 1, 1999, in Japan § IPCC Expert Meeting on DES (2nd), February 26-28, 2000, in Cuba. As confirmed through telephone calls and the two email conferences on cross cutting issues (conducted between January-March 1999, and in January 2000), the purpose of these Guidance Papers is not to prescribe but to promote mutual understanding among authors. They are intended to provide clear and policy-neutral guidance for authors. Therefore, this report is essentially for facilitating the work of TAR authors and reviewers in their drafting and review process. At the same time, however, it is expected to be useful for preparation of the future IPCC reports on climate change issues. IPCC Vice Chairs, R. Pachauri and T. Taniguchi Contents Preface ……………………………………………………………………………………………………….. R. Pachauri and T. Taniguchi User’s Guide ……………………………………………………………………………………………………..1 T. Taniguchi and K. Tanaka Costing Methodologies ………………………………………………………………………………..15 A. Markandya and K. Halsnæs Uncertainties …………………………………………………………………………………………………33 R. Moss and S. Schneider Decision Analysis Frameworks …………………………………………………………………….53 F. Toth Development, Equity and Sustainability (DES) ……………………………………………69 M. Munasinghe Appendices Summary of First IPCC Expert Meeting on DES in Colombo, Sri Lanka …111 M. Munasinghe and R. Swart Short Report of IPCC Costing Issues Expert Meeting in Tokyo……………...121 R. Pachauri and T. Taniguchi Summary of Second Regional Expert Meeting on DES …………….……………. .133 R. Pichs, N. Leary and R. Swart User’s Guide USER’S GUIDE FOR CROSS CUTTING ISSUES GUIDANCE PAPERS Prepared by Tomihiro Taniguchi The University of Tokyo, Japan Kanako Tanaka Global Industrial and Social Progress Research Institute (GISPRI) CONTENTS INTRODUCTION.........................................................................................................................................................2 Objective of the four Guidance Papers...........................................................................................................2 Policy Relevant Scientific, Technical and Socio-economic Questions (PRSQ).......................................3 DEVELOPMENT , EQUITY AND SUSTAINABILITY (DES): BY DR. MUNASINGHE..............................................7 COSTING METHODOLOGIES: BY DRS. MARKANDYA AND HALSNAES..............................................................3 UNCERTAINTIES: BY DRS. MOSS AND SCHNEIDER..............................................................................................5 DECISION ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK (DAF): BY DR. TOTH.................................................................................6 TABLES: CHECKLISTS FOR IPCC TAR CHAPTERS............................................................................................9 POLICY RELEVANT SCIENTIFIC, TECHNICAL AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC QUESTIONS (PRSQ) ........................12 Socio-economic Questions and their relevance to TAR working group report.................................... 14 1 User’s Guide Introduction The IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) is now in the drafting and reviewing process to be completed by the middle of 2001. As part of the TAR process, four guidance papers have been prepared on the following cross-cutting issues: costing methodologies, uncertainty and decision analysis framework (DAF), development, equity, and sustainability (DES). This user’s guide has been prepared to assist authors of the TAR in applying the guidance papers on the cross cutting issues to the various chapters of the TAR. This guide essentially summarizes the main features of the guidance papers, in the expectation that the lead authors would use this summary in seeking the material provided in the guidance papers themselves in particular materials of practical action oriented nature. It is also expected that this summarized guide would be useful for the CLAs and Review Editors of the TAR in assessing the extent to which the individual chapters have considered the four major cross cutting issues in arriving at the contents of each chapter. Hence, the attempt at providing a check list of issues wherever possible in relation to each of the four major cross cutting issues. This guide and its contents are not binding in any way, and its purpose is merely to assist in the consideration of cross cutting issues. This is also expected to be used always in conjunction with the original guidance papers. Coverage of each paper is offered in a common format: 1. Overview of the Guidance Paper Introduction and context. 2. Important Issues Clarification of critical components. 3. Check Lists Practical lists of questions for authors to foster consistency between chapters. Objective of the four Guidance Papers Four papers have been prepared on selected issues that cut across two or more of the Working Group reports of the IPCC. The purpose of the papers is to provide guidance to authors of the IPCC TAR for use in drafting their chapters of the TAR with the goal of achieving consistent use of terms and approaches to the assessment and reporting of information that is relevant to the cross-cutting issues. The guidance is intended to be practical and user-friendly and yet appropriate for application to many disciplines represented in the TAR and the broad range of scientific literature to be assessed. As CLAs and LAs are fully responsible for their scientific assessment in their drafting, the guidance is not intended to restrict the substance of authors’ assessment findings. The guidance should be policy neutral and should not be biased in ways that would tend to prejudge findings. The issues that the guidance papers will address include: Costing Methodologies Ø What approaches have been used in assessing costs associated with impacts, adaptation and mitigation options? Ø What common definitions, concepts, assumptions, and methodologies should be used across the chapters and Working Groups? Uncertainties Ø What approaches can be used in the TAR to represent uncertainties concerning the core, the body and the range of informed technical opinions regarding the key issues assessed in the chapters? Ø What terms and methods should be used to standardize the assessments of "degree of belief" or "level of confidence" which quantifies and/or qualifies uncertainties in key findings. 2 User’s Guide Decision Analysis Frameworks (DAF) Ø What approaches should be used in the TAR for synthesizing and presenting information for use in possible decision-making frameworks for climate change? Ø What information is required from different chapters to successfully use these approaches? Development, Equity and Sustainability (DES ) Ø How would climate change and climate policy be related to the issues of development, equity and sustainability? Policy Relevant Scientific, Technical and Socio-economic Questions (PRSQ) In view of the importance of PRSQ, which will constitute the main body of the TAR Synthesis Report, and their close linkage with
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