Capital Allocation + Rins Contribution • Credible Management Team • Future Value Estimation? How to Maximize Terminal Value?
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
MUSA Annual Shareholder Meeting Andrew Clyde - CEO May 2018 Murphy USA Inc. 1 Cautionary Statement This presentation contains forward-looking statements. These statements, which express management’s current views concerning future events or results, are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in our forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, the volatility and level of crude oil and gasoline prices, the pace and success of our expansion plan, our relationship with Walmart, political and regulatory uncertainty, uncontrollable natural hazards, and adverse market conditions or tax consequences, among other things. For further discussion of risk factors, see “Risk Factors” in the Murphy USA registration statement on our latest form 10-K. Murphy USA undertakes no duty to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. The Murphy USA financial information in this presentation is derived from the audited and unaudited consolidated financial statements of Murphy USA, Inc. from the years ended December 31, 2013 through 2017. Please reference our most recent 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K filings for the latest information. If this presentation contains non-GAAP financial measures, we have provided a reconciliation of such non- GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable measures prepared in accordance with U.S. GAAP in the Appendix to this presentation. Christian Pikul, CFA Senior Director, Investor Relations Office: 870-875-7683 [email protected] Murphy USA Inc. 2 The convenience store industry and players continue to evolve • Customer • Customer • Customer • Customer • New Strategy Objectives Acquisition Acceptance Retention Attrition Implementation • Product • Proof of • Product • Product • Product Introduction Concept Expansion Competition Extinction • Amazon Go • Buc-ee’s • QuikTrip • 7-Eleven • The Pantry Notable Firms • Filld, WeFuel • Walmart • Wawa • EZ Mart • Getty Neighborhood Markets Murphy USA Inc. 3 Retail format evolution occurs in a predictable manner Conceptual Framework of Retail Format Evolution • Firms with the same format compete 1. / 5. EQUILIBRIUM 4. 2. EMERGENCE CONSOLIDATION • New format moves up market • A new format emerges • New-format players compete among • Concentrates first on the most themselves switchable customers • New format dominates 3. EXPANSION • New format enjoys extraordinary profits • Others seek to imitate and/or expand to new markets Murphy USA Inc. 4 Winners and losers by format emerge Hypermarkets Murphy USA QuikTrip Big-Box C-Stores Supermarkets and mass Large stores with merchants with Walmart Sheetz comprehensive offerings small-box forecourts including food offer Kroger Wawa Strength: Low fuel prices Strength: Destination and integrated loyalty Safeway for merchandise offer programs/ promotions tied Speedway supported by low fuel prices to in-store purchases Costco Casey’s 784 C-Stores CST Susser (Stripes) The Pantry Sunoco EG Couche-Tard GPM (Circle K) 7-Eleven Empire Consolidation Model Stand-alone public peer Franchises with distinctive C-store brand and capabilities Strength: Store uplift from franchise and scale advantages that support acquisition premiums Murphy USA Inc. 5 MUSA has transitioned to the maturity phase since spin 1996 1999 2007 2018 • First stores in • Rapid Growth • Operating • Portfolio/G&A • Acquire Capabilities front of of >100 stores discipline rationalization for new format entry? Focus Walmart per year • Format • Margin • Expand into • Positioned as • Expansion evolution maximization Adjacencies? low-cost fuels strategy • Contribution • Cash • Harvest Terminal retailer • Kiosk optimization generation Value? evolution • Customer loyalty • Pilot • Unit • EBITDA per • Total • M&A Accretion Metrics Economics Growth Store Shareholder Potential • Market • Volume • NTI ROIC Return • Free Cash Launch per Store • EPS growth • ROACE Flow Dividend Murphy USA Inc. 6 Investor sentiment has shifted accordingly Percent of Outstanding MUSA Shares Owned by Investor Type 12/31/2013 12/31/2017 6% GARP 14% 14% Growth Value Blend 14% 48% 54% 32% 18% Investor Praise Investor Concerns • Consistent Strategy for Long-term • Competitive Impact on Fuel Volume / Value Creation with Tangible Proof Merch Traffic Points • Margin Volatility and Stability of PS&W • Disciplined Capital Allocation + RINs Contribution • Credible Management Team • Future Value Estimation? How to Maximize Terminal Value? Murphy USA Inc. 7 Lifecycle stage informs capital allocation decisions MUSA Capital Allocation Focus Growth Earnings Growth Shareholder Distributions • Quality versus quantity of • Organic growth through • Competition for capital stores important to new stores balances growth and investors • Improvements to the core repurchase opportunities • Returns drive capital business: • Volatility makes allocation – Lower cost structure commitment to meaningful • Internal investments in – Margin optimization dividend difficult at this stage of lifecycle productivity can generate • Scaling corporate costs to strong returns given the leverage growth capital • Internal efficiency force multiplier of a large improvements will drive network • Share repurchase greater future shareholder leverages EPS potential distribution potential Capital Allocation Murphy USA Inc. 8 Mature firms must continue to reinvest in their assets Raze and Rebuild Program • 32 sites completed through 2017 with goal of up to 25 stores in 2018 • Kiosks replaced with 1,200 sq ft stores along with more dispensers and increased fuel offer • Given the premium locations, we estimate per site unlevered IRR’s between 15% and 35% APSM Fuel Gallons* Baseline (Prior FY) 403,184 +10% After 6 months 443,338 APSM Merchandise Sales $* Baseline (Prior FY) $159,350 +18% After 6 months $188,011 * 2016 & 2017 Raze & Rebuild Class Average Murphy USA Inc. 9 And innovate to grow customers Murphy Drive Rewards is a customer appreciation program that: - Engages and motivates current customers - Attracts new customers - Incentivizes all customers to buy more fuel and more merchandise Murphy USA Inc. 10 While remaining disciplined with capital allocation Capital Allocation ($MM) Capital Allocation 2014 - 2017 2014 - 2017 $1,722 Retail Growth Capital $587 $829 $464 $480 39% $323 48% $206 $248 $191 $893 $52 Share 8% $264 $274 5% $216 Repurchases Retail $139 Corporate Maintenance Capital Capital 2014 2015 2016 2017 4-Year Total Share Repurchases Capital Expenditures Murphy USA Inc. 11 MUSA has become distinctive for increasing its productivity MUSA Value Creation Drivers 2016 Proof Point 2017 Proof Point 5% unit growth 3% unit growth Organic • 67 new sites; 10 R&R • 45 new sites; 21 R&R Growth • 300 refresh; 180 super • 300 refresh; 244 super coolers coolers * 5% contribution $ growth 4.7% contribution $ growth Fuel • +1.7% volume growth • -1.3% volume growth • 15.4 cpg total margin • 16.4 cpg total margin Contribution • 3.8 cpg from PS&W/RINs • 2.4 cpg from PS&W/RINs + Reduced to 1.3 cpg from 2.3 Reduced to 1.2 cpg from 1.3 • +120 bps merchandise • +50 bps merchandise EPS Growth Fuel • +11.2% merch contrib $ • +4.7% merch contrib $ Breakeven • -4.1% site opex* APSM • -2.6% site opex* APSM - SG&A per store down 10% SG&A per store up 3% • $6.6 million decline in • $8.5 million increase in Corporate total SG&A total SG&A** Costs • Tax-efficient non-core • Investing in people and asset sale capabilities / Repurchased 4.9M shares Repurchased 3.0M shares Shares • $323 million of capital • $206 million of capital Outstanding • 11% of shares outstanding • 8% of shares outstanding *Site Opex excludes credit card fees **SG&A per-store excludes stock-based compensation; 2017 proof points exclude $10mm charitable contribution Murphy USA Inc. 12 The business is resilient, but not immune, to headwinds Tobacco Non-Tobacco • Managing decline curve • Managing decline curve in cigarettes in CSD’s • Taxes accelerating • Consumer spending decline in volumes Refined Products & RINs Labor Costs Tax Reform • Product flow patterns • FLSA • Beneficiary of tax shift across value chain • Minimum Wage reform (25% v 38%) • Regulatory and political Increases • Higher FCF to deploy uncertainty with RFS • Lower unemployment • Industry unlikely to rate compete away benefits • Wage inflation Murphy USA Inc. 13 Macro industry fuel trends are favorable near-term Mileposts 2027 Fuel Demand (2017 Estimate) Short-Term Long-Term (Light Duty, Indexed to 2016) VMT • VMT highly correlated with GDP MUSA States • Tax reform boosting GDP growth • Production ability and EV 1.70% 99.3% 99.8% 103.1% adoption rates volatile • Dependent on tax subsidy • OEMs fear being left 1.45% 96.6% 97.2% 100.3% behind if India and China leapfrog US • Trump says current 1.20% 94.0% 94.6% 97.6% 2025 CAFE CAFÉ targets too VMT Growth (%/year) Growth VMT aggressive • Consumers and 3 2 1 manufacturers abandoning sedans for 49.7 44.5 37.0 less efficient SUVs 2027 CAFE Standard • Innovators are agnostic Autonomous between EV and ICE • Safety issues could impede pace of consumer adoption Murphy USA Inc. 14 Murphy USA continues its proven and differentiated strategy • Murphy USA is uniquely positioned as a MUSA Relative Stock Performance low-cost fuel and convenience retailer Indexed From Spinoff to April 27, 2018 Murphy USA Inc. • Our strategy to compete has five coherent 220 S&P 500 Index elements: S&P 400 Midcap Index – Grow Organically – Diversify Merchandise Mix 200 – Sustain Cost Leadership