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Electricity Policy in Argentina and Uruguay

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Explaining Divergent Energy Paths: Electricity Policy in Argentina and Uruguay Dissertation zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades eines Doktors der Politikwissenschaften (Dr. rer. pol.) am Fachbereich Politik- und Sozialwissenschaften des Otto-Suhr-Institutes der Freien Universität Berlin Vorgelegt im Jahr 2014 von Moïra Jimeno Supervisor: Prof. Miranda Schreurs, Ph.D. Second Supervisor: PD. Dr. Achim Brunnengräber Date of the Defense: October 14, 2014 Berlin Table of contents i List of Tables v List of Figures v Acronyms vii Acknowledgements xi 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Definition of the research topic 1 1.2 State of the Art 7 1.2.1 Empirical Importance of Electricity Policy in Argentina and Uruguay 7 1.2.2 Theoretical and Practical Interest 12 1.3 Research Questions 13 1.4 Structure of the Work 14 2 Theoretical and Analytical Framework 17 2.1 Actors, Advocacy Coalitions, and Policy Subsystems 17 2.2 Policy Beliefs, Ideas, Perception and Interests 19 2.3 Advocacy Coalitions and Punctuated Equilibrium 27 2.4 Historical Institutionalism: Importance of Policy Change and Path Dependency 30 2.5 Analytical Framework 37 2.5.1 Definition of the Hypotheses 40 3 Methodological Framework 49 3.1 Methodological Approach 49 3.2 Election of the two-case studies and the period of time 51 3.3 Sources of evidence for the two-case studies 53 4 Political Contexts of Argentina and Uruguay 57 4.1 Introduction 57 4.2 The political context of Argentina and Uruguay 58 4.3 Natural Resources and Economic Development in Latin America 63 4.4 International Policy Learning in Latin America 68 i 5 Case Study: Argentina 71 5.1 Introduction 71 5.2 Political System 72 5.3 Analysis of the Argentinean Electricity Policy System 76 5.3.1 Composition of the Advocacy Coalitions and their Policy Core Beliefs 79 5.3.2 The Beginning of Renewable Energy (1994-2002) 82 5.3.3 Searching for Alternatives: The Years of Electricity Shortage (2003-2014) 85 5.4 Policy Framework for Renewable Energy 91 5.5 Energy Supply and Electricity Mix 96 5.5.1 Internal Primary Energy Supply 2012 96 5.5.2 National Electricity Generation Mix 2014 97 5.5.3 State of Wind Energy 98 5.6 Renewable and Wind Energy Goals 102 5.7 Policy Change in the Electricity System 109 5.7.1 Impacts from the Electricity System: Energy Policy Framework and Subsidies 110 5.7.2 Role of Nuclear Energy and Hydropower in Argentina 118 5.7.3 Research Findings 127 5.7.4 Preliminary Conclusions 136 6 Case Study: Uruguay 139 6.1 Introduction 139 6.2 Political System 140 6.3 Analysis of the Uruguayan Electricity Policy System 145 6.3.1 Composition of the Advocacy Coalitions and Policy Beliefs 147 6.3.2 The New Regulatory Framework (1997-2002) 149 6.3.3 Searching for Alternatives: The Years of Electricity Shortage (2003-2014) 153 6.4 Policy Framework for Renewable Energy 166 6.4.1 National Energy Policy 2005–2030 166 6.4.2 Legal Regulations 168 6.5 Energy Supply and Electricity Mix 171 6.5.1 Internal Primary Energy Supply 2012 171 6.5.2 National Electricity Mix 2014 173 6.5.3 State of Wind Energy 174 ii 6.6 Renewable Energy Goals: Towards a New Policy Subsystem 178 6.7 Policy Change in the Electricity System 185 6.7.1 Impacts from the Electricity System: Electricity Reform and Subsidies 185 6.7.2 Technical and Administrative Difficulties 187 6.7.3 Role of Nuclear Energy and Hydropower in Uruguay 192 6.7.4 Research Findings 195 6.7.5 Preliminary Conclusions 201 7 Examples from Abroad: Germany and France 205 7.1 France and Germany as Pioneering Countries 205 7.2 Early Nuclear Development in France and Late Nuclear Adoption in Germany 205 7.3 Early Wind Energy Development in Germany 210 7.4 European Union and International Agreements 216 7.5 Fukushima Impacts 219 7.6 Renewable Energy Capacity in Germany and France 223 7.7 French and German Nuclear and Renewable Energy Experiences: Lessons for Latin America 226 8 Final Conclusions 235 8.1 Limitations 235 8.2 Discussion of the Main Findings: Implications of the Case Studies 237 8.2.1 Crisis as an Opportunity or as a Barrier for Policy Change 238 8.2.2 International Inputs and Domestic Practices 242 8.2.3 Structure of the Electricity System as a Constraint or Facilitator to Wind Energy Development 245 8.3 State of Renewable Energy in Argentina and Uruguay 247 8.4 Main Theoretical Contributions 247 8.5 Future Prospects and Research 251 Appendices 257 • Interview Guidelines 257 Zusammenfassung 265 Summary 267 References 269 List of Interview Partners (oral, telephone, video call, and e-mail) 319 iii List of Tables Table 1.1: National Electricity Mix of Argentina and Uruguay 10 Table 5.1: Existing Wind Parks (2014) 100 Table 5.2: Projected Wind Parks (2014) 101 Table 5.3: First Phase 108 Table 5.4: Second Phase 109 Table 5.5: Elements of Renewable Energy Policy Process 138 Table 6.1: Existing Wind Parks (April 2015) 175 Table 6.2: Wind Parks in Construction (April 2015) 176 Table 6.3: First Phase 183 Table 6.4: Second Phase 184 Table 6.5: Elements of Renewable Energy Policy Process 204 Table 8.1: State of Renewable Energy in Argentina and Uruguay 247 List of Figures Figure 2.1: Revised Structure of Belief Systems of Policy Elites 21 Figure 2.2: Elements of Policy Change 40 Figure 5.1: Internal Energy Supply (2012) 96 Figure 5.2: National Electricity Generation Mix (2014) 97 Figure 6.1: Internal Energy Supply (2012) 172 Figure 6.2: National Electricity Generation Mix (2014) 173 Figure 7.1: National Electricity Mix in Germany (2012) 224 Figure 7.2: National Electricity Mix in France (2012) 225 iv Acronyms AAEE: Asociación Argentina de Energía Eólica [Argentinean Association of Wind Energy] ACF: Advocacy Coalition Framework AGEERA: Asociación de Generadores de Energía Eléctrica de la República Argentina [Association of Energy Electricity Generators in the Argentinean Republic] AHK Uruguay: Deutsch-Uruguayische Industrie- und Handelskammer ANCAP: Administración Nacional de Combustibles Alcohol y Portland [National Administration for Fuels, Alcohol, and Portland] AUdEE: Uruguayan Association of Wind Energy BAU: Business as Usual BMU: Bundesministerium fur Umwelt, CACME: Comité Argentino del Consejo Mundial de Energía CADER: Cámara Argentina de Energías Renovables [Argentinean Chamber of Renewable Energy] CAMMESA: Compañía Administradora del Mercado Mayorista Eléctrico [Administration Company of the Electricity Gross Market] CAREM 25: Central Argentina de Elementos Modulares 25 MW CCGT: Combined Cycle Gas Turbine CDM: Clean Development Mechanism CEA: Commissariat à l’Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives [Atomic Energy and Alternative Energies Commission] CFEE: Consejo Federal de la Energía Eléctrica [Federal Council of the Electricity Energy] CNEA: Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica [National Commission of Nuclear Energy] CONICYT: Science and Technology Council COP15: Copenhagen Climate Change Conference CREE: Regional Centre of Wind Energy DGF: Dirección General Forestal del Uruguay [Uruguay’s General Directorate of Forestry] DINAMA: Dirección Nacional de Medio Ambiente de Uruguay [Environmental National Direction of Uruguay] v DINOT: Dirección Nacional de Ordenamiento Territorial [Territorial Planning National Direction] DNE: Dirección Nacional de Energía [National Direction of Energy] EDF: Électricité de France [Electricity of France] EEG: Erneuerbare Energie Gesetz ENARSA: Energía Argentina S.A. [Argentinean Energy S.A.] EU: European Union FA: Frente Amplio [Broad Front] FARN: Fundación Ambiente y Recursos Naturales [Natural Resources and Environmental Foundation] FIT: Feed-in Tariff FEP: Foro de Ecologia Política [Political Ecology Forum] FVS: Fundación Vida Silvestre [Wildlife Foundation] GEF: Global Environmental Facility GHG: Greenhouse Gas GIZ: Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit IAE: Instituto Argentino de la Energía General Mosconi [Argentinean Institute of the Energy General Mosconi] IDB: Inter – American Development Bank IFIs: International Financial Institutions IFU: Investment Fund for Developing Countries IMF: International Monetary Fund INC: Instituto Nacional de Colonización [Settlement National Institute] IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IRENA: International Renewable Energy Association MEM: Mercado Eléctrico Mayorista [Wholesale Electricity Market] MERCOSUR: Mercado Común del Sur [Southern Common Market] MIEM: Ministerio de Industria, Energía y Minería [Ministry of Industry, Energy, and Mining] vi MINPLAN: Ministerio de Planificación Federal, Inversión Pública y Servicios [Ministry of Federal Planning, Public Investment and Services] MVOTMA: Ministerio de Vivienda, Ordenamiento Territorial y Medio Ambiente [Ministry of Housing, Territorial Planning, and the Environment] NGOs: Non-governmental Organizations PE: Punctuated-equilibrium PNUD – LAC: Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo – Centro Regional Para América Latina y el Caribe [United Nations Environment Programme – Regional Centre Latin America and the Caribbean] PROBIO: Proyecto de Producción de Electricidad a partir de Biomasa [Electricity Generation Project from Biomass] GENREN: Programa de Licitación de Generación Eléctrica a partir de Fuentes Renovables [Electricity Generation Program for Renewable Energy] PRONUREE: Programa Nacional de Uso Racional y Eficiente de la Energía [National Program for Rational and Efficient Energy] PURPA: Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act SEGBA: Servicios Eléctricos del Gran Buenos Aires S.A. [Electrical Services of Greater Buenos Aires SA] SRU: Sachverständigenrat für Umweltfragen StrEG: Stromeinspeisungsgesetz UBA:
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