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CHINA and the CHALLENGES in GREATER MIDDLE EAST Conference Report CHINA AND THE CHALLENGES IN GREATER MIDDLE EAST Conference report Organized by DIIS . Danish Institute for International Studies and University of Copenhagen on 10 November 2015 China and the Challenges in Greater Middle East – Conference report 1 This conference report is published by DIIS · Danish Institute for International Studies Østbanegade 117, DK-2100 Copenhagen, Denmark Tel: +45 32 69 87 87 E-mail: [email protected] www.diis.dk Layout: Allan Lind Jørgensen Printed in Denmark by Eurographic Danmark ISBN 978-87-7605-838-8 (print) ISBN 978-87-7605-839-5 (pdf) DIIS publications can be downloaded free of charge or ordered from www.diis.dk © Copenhagen 2016, the authors, DIIS and KU 2 China and the Challenges in Greater Middle East – Conference report TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 5 Lars Erslev Andersen, Yang Jiang and Camilla Sørensen CHINA’S DIPLOMACY IN THE GULF REGION: ENERGY AND (IN)SECURITY 10 Marc Lanteigne CAN CHINA BE A PILLAR OF GCC SECURITY? 17 Imad Mansour CHINA-MIDDLE EAST RELATIONS: NEW CHALLENGES AND NEW APPROACHES 22 Zhang Jiadong CHINA’S MIDDLE EAST CONUNDRUM AND PROSPECTS FOR COLLECTIVE SECURITY 27 N. Janardhan CHINA IN SEARCH OF ‘LEGITIMATE’ GREAT-POWER INTERVENTION 33 Camilla Sørensen CHINA’S PROACTIVE DIPLOMACY IN AFGHANISTAN: A CHALLENGE TO THE PRINCIPLE OF NON-INTERFERENCE 40 Miwa Hirono AUTHORS 46 PHOTOS 47 China and the Challenges in Greater Middle East – Conference report 3 4 China and the Challenges in Greater Middle East – Conference report INTRODUCTION Asia in the region, especially the role of Chi- na. Whereas US Middle East policy has been Lars Erslev Andersen, Yang Jiang and subjected to endless academic analyses, this Camilla Sørensen new axis between the Persian Gulf and China has not received much attention. This collection of short papers is an outcome of an international conference entitled China China has been expanding its economic in- and the Challenges in Greater Middle East, volvement in the Persian Gulf, not least in oil: organized by the Danish Institute for Interna- the majority of its oil comes from the region. tional Studies and Copenhagen University on Although China is trying to diversify its ener- 10 November 2015. The conference sought gy supplies away from the Middle East, it will answers to the following questions: Is the remain dependent on the Arab States and balance of power between the US and China Iran for years to come. With expanding trade, changing in the Persian Gulf? Will China’s investment and contract work in the Persian increasing economic interests in the Gulf Gulf, China is seeking to protect its assets lead to a more activist Chinese foreign and and citizens there. As argued, and as shown security policy there? What are the expecta- in the papers by Camilla T.N. Sørensen and tions the Arab Gulf States have of China, and Miwa Hirono, China can no longer follow will China meet them? the old diplomatic strategy of keeping a low profile and keeping business and politics The background to the conference was Chi- separate. China especially has learned from na’s increasing interest in the Persian Gulf si- the crises in Libya and Sudan and is gradu- multaneously with what has been interpreted ally changing its policy from one of non-in- as America’s gradual retreat from the region. tervention to what is often termed ‘active Even though the US has been providing the mediation’, ‘limited intervention’ or ‘creative security umbrella in the region, its handling involvement’. of ethnic conflicts and civil wars has irritated members of the Gulf Cooperation Council Doubts remain, both within the GCC and (GCC). Political developments, including in Chinese policy-making circles, as to the 9/11 and the Arab Spring, have forced the extent to which China should be strategical- GCC member states to take action to avoid ly involved in the Middle East. China is not the spread of democratic movements and seeking to challenge or replace the US as revolutions while seeking to handle their own the security provider in the region. However, affairs without interference from the US, there is no doubt that ‘active pragmatism’ the EU and the UN. Problems in GCC–US has become China’s guiding diplomatic strat- relations have also made GCC states look egy and that we will see more political and eastwards for new partners, providing a strategic activity from China in the region power vacuum and opportunity for China to while it continues to pursue its economic insert itself. interests. China will also play a more active role in fighting extremism at home, as well as The Middle East is in a process of radical re- in the Greater Middle East, including Afghan- structuring following the Arab Spring of 2011, istan and Iraq. How will this combination of the escalation of sectarian conflict in Iraq strategies be played out? and the outbreak and development of the civil war in Syria. These circumstances have In order to address these themes and dis- given rise to enhanced security concerns. In cuss the questions mentioned above , we order to understand the post-9/11 regional brought researchers from China and the security dynamics, we need to challenge the Arab Gulf states together and added a few oft-repeated perception of American hege- other researchers who focus more broadly mony and analyze the rising importance of on China’s new approach to the international China and the Challenges in Greater Middle East – Conference report 5 economy and foreign and security policy, as the foreseeable future, however, Zhang and well as on confronting extremism. Lanteigne agree that the region remains im- portant for China’s energy security, as well We are grateful to the participants in the as for other commercial interests, as part conference for agreeing to summarize their of the trade route to Europe and Africa, and presentations in the form of short papers, also as export markets in their own right. thus making it possible to disseminate the This is also significant in that several of the conclusions of the conference to a broader regional states are also members of the audience. Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), one of the new China-sponsored internation- al development banks that are seeking to Energy and commercial interests as main expand infrastructure investment through drivers international collaboration. Whereas China once viewed developments and events in the Middle East primarily Compared to its limited involvement in through the lens of a revolutionary ideology, security, China is aggressively and steadily its relations with Middle Eastern states are consolidating energy and other commercial now driven mainly by energy and commercial ties with the region. Marc Lanteigne’s paper interests. It has a strong and growing need discusses China’s energy diplomacy in the for access to energy and natural resources Greater Middle East. Although perceived as in order to maintain economic growth. The hypocritical by some regional actors for just Middle East, in particular the Persian Gulf, is taking the economic benefits without military the main region involved, with Saudi Arabia involvement, China’s pursuit of economic and Iran both being major suppliers of oil to interests without security involvement has China. The Persian Gulf as a whole is China’s achieved significant results, in particular in largest oil provider, and it is estimated that diversifying the energy trade for China and by 2020 annual trade between China and the in establishing itself as a pivotal alternative Persian Gulf will top $350 billion. A free-trade consumer for the region. Regional instabil- agreement with China is also a priority for ities, including the Arab Spring and the rise the GCC, and Chinese state-owned compa- of Islamic State, call into question the status nies are continuously bidding for contracts of the Middle East as a provider of ‘energy in the Persian Gulf. There is a clear Chinese security’ to China. However, as the most im- presence in regional commerce. portant region for energy supply, the Greater Middle East is a focus of China’s economic The Middle East has thus been China’s ma- diplomacy, including through a free-trade jor oil and gas supplier, and it falls into the agreement with the GCC, involvement in category of ‘China’s greater neighborhood’ OBOR and membership in AIIB. as far as Chinese foreign policy is con- cerned. At the same time, China is diversi- In particular, several papers stress that Chi- fying its energy suppliers among regional na’s ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and ‘21st-cen- states and states outside the region, as tury Maritime Silk Road’ (Belt and Road or well as developing new supply routes and OBOR) initiative is giving another boost to port facilities. According to Jiadong Zhang, relations between China and the greater China needs to rethink its policy towards Middle East. China sees the region as a knot the Middle East because of the declining oil in the initiative. The OBOR initiative involves price, terrorist threats and the lower de- the Greater Middle East in both terrestrial and mand expected for fossil fuels in the future. maritime routes as both important points Marc Lanteigne instead sees China’s energy of connectivity and economic partners. But consumption shifting away from domestic because the definition of the initiative is still coal to cleaner, imported fossil fuels. For vague and ever changing in its scope, states 6 China and the Challenges in Greater Middle East – Conference report in the region continue to compete for China’s Like many other states outside the region, favor. China has had to make a rapid adjustment to its Middle East approach and policies follow- ing the Arab Spring.
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