Collusion in Hierarchical Agency
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Best Experienced Payoff Dynamics and Cooperation in the Centipede Game
Theoretical Economics 14 (2019), 1347–1385 1555-7561/20191347 Best experienced payoff dynamics and cooperation in the centipede game William H. Sandholm Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin Segismundo S. Izquierdo BioEcoUva, Department of Industrial Organization, Universidad de Valladolid Luis R. Izquierdo Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de Burgos We study population game dynamics under which each revising agent tests each of his strategies a fixed number of times, with each play of each strategy being against a newly drawn opponent, and chooses the strategy whose total payoff was highest. In the centipede game, these best experienced payoff dynamics lead to co- operative play. When strategies are tested once, play at the almost globally stable state is concentrated on the last few nodes of the game, with the proportions of agents playing each strategy being largely independent of the length of the game. Testing strategies many times leads to cyclical play. Keywords. Evolutionary game theory, backward induction, centipede game, computational algebra. JEL classification. C72, C73. 1. Introduction The discrepancy between the conclusions of backward induction reasoning and ob- served behavior in certain canonical extensive form games is a basic puzzle of game the- ory. The centipede game (Rosenthal (1981)), the finitely repeated prisoner’s dilemma, and related examples can be viewed as models of relationships in which each partic- ipant has repeated opportunities to take costly actions that benefit his partner and in which there is a commonly known date at which the interaction will end. Experimen- tal and anecdotal evidence suggests that cooperative behavior may persist until close to William H. -
Game Theory: Static and Dynamic Games of Incomplete Information
Game Theory: Static and Dynamic Games of Incomplete Information Branislav L. Slantchev Department of Political Science, University of California – San Diego June 3, 2005 Contents. 1 Static Bayesian Games 2 1.1BuildingaPlant......................................... 2 1.1.1Solution:TheStrategicForm............................ 4 1.1.2Solution:BestResponses.............................. 5 1.2Interimvs.ExAntePredictions............................... 6 1.3BayesianNashEquilibrium.................................. 6 1.4 The Battle of the Sexes . 10 1.5AnExceedinglySimpleGame................................ 12 1.6TheLover-HaterGame.................................... 13 1.7TheMarketforLemons.................................... 16 2 Dynamic Bayesian Games 18 2.1ATwo-PeriodReputationGame............................... 19 2.2Spence’sEducationGame.................................. 22 3 Computing Perfect Bayesian Equilibria 24 3.1TheYildizGame........................................ 24 3.2TheMyerson-RosenthalGame................................ 25 3.3One-PeriodSequentialBargaining............................. 29 3.4AThree-PlayerGame..................................... 29 3.5RationalistExplanationforWar............................... 31 Thus far, we have only discussed games where players knew about each other’s utility func- tions. These games of complete information can be usefully viewed as rough approximations in a limited number of cases. Generally, players may not possess full information about their opponents. In particular, players may possess -
Comparative Statics and Perfect Foresight in Infinite Horizon Economies
Digitized by the Internet Archive in 2011 with funding from Boston Library Consortium IVIember Libraries http://www.archive.org/details/comparativestatiOOkeho working paper department of economics Comparative Statics And Perfect Foresight in Infinite Horizon Economies Timothy J. Kehoe David K. Levine* Number 312 December 1982 massachusetts institute of technology 50 memorial drive Cambridge, mass. 02139 Comparative Statics And Perfect Foresight in Infinite Horizon Economies Timothy J. Kehoe David K. Levine* Number 312 December 1982 Department of Economics, M.I.T. and Department of Economics, U.C.L.A., respectively. Abstract This paper considers whether infinite horizon economies have determinate perfect foresight equilibria. ¥e consider stationary pure exchange economies with both finite and infinite numbers of agents. When there is a finite number of infinitely lived agents, we argue that equilibria are generically determinate. This is because the number of equations determining the equilibria is not infinite, but is equal to the number of agents minus one and must determine the marginal utility of income for all but one agent. In an overlapping generations model with infinitely many finitely lived agents, this reasoning breaks down. ¥e ask whether the initial conditions together with the requirement of convergence to a steady state locally determine an equilibrium price path. In this framework there are many economies with isolated equilibria, many with continue of equilibria, and many with no equilibria at all. With two or more goods in every period not only can the price level be indeterminate but relative prices as well. Furthermore, such indeterminacy can occur whether or not there is fiat money in the economy. -
Game Theory with Sparsity-Based Bounded Rationality∗
Game Theory with Sparsity-Based Bounded Rationality Xavier Gabaix NYU Stern, CEPR and NBER March 14, 2011 Extremely preliminary and incomplete. Please do not circulate. Abstract This paper proposes a way to enrich traditional game theory via an element of bounded rationality. It builds on previous work by the author in the context of one-agent deci- sion problems, but extends it to several players and a generalization of the concept of Nash equilibrium. Each decision maker builds a simplified representation of the world, which includes only a partial understanding of the equilibrium play of the other agents. The agents’desire for simplificity is modeled as “sparsity” in a tractable manner. The paper formulates the model in the concept of one-shot games, and extends it to sequen- tial games and Bayesian games. It applies the model to a variety of exemplary games: p beauty contests, centipede, traveler’sdilemma, and dollar auction games. The model’s predictions are congruent with salient facts of the experimental evidence. Compared to previous succesful proposals (e.g., models with different levels of thinking or noisy decision making), the model is particularly tractable and yields simple closed forms where none were available. A sparsity-based approach gives a portable and parsimonious way to inject bounded rationality into game theory. Keywords: inattention, boundedly rational game theory, behavioral modeling, sparse repre- sentations, `1 minimization. [email protected]. For very good research assistance I am grateful to Tingting Ding and Farzad Saidi. For helpful comments I thank seminar participants at NYU. I also thank the NSF for support under grant DMS-0938185. -
Network Markets and Consumer Coordination
NETWORK MARKETS AND CONSUMER COORDINATION ATTILA AMBRUS ROSSELLA ARGENZIANO CESIFO WORKING PAPER NO. 1317 CATEGORY 9: INDUSTRIAL ORGANISATION OCTOBER 2004 PRESENTED AT KIEL-MUNICH WORKSHOP ON THE ECONOMICS OF INFORMATION AND NETWORK INDUSTRIES, AUGUST 2004 An electronic version of the paper may be downloaded • from the SSRN website: www.SSRN.com • from the CESifo website: www.CESifo.de CESifo Working Paper No. 1317 NETWORK MARKETS AND CONSUMER COORDINATION Abstract This paper assumes that groups of consumers in network markets can coordinate their choices when it is in their best interest to do so, and when coordination does not require communication. It is shown that multiple asymmetric networks can coexist in equilibrium if consumers have heterogeneous reservation values. A monopolist provider might choose to operate multiple networks to price differentiate consumers on both sides of the market. Competing network providers might operate networks such that one of them targets high reservation value consumers on one side of the market, while the other targets high reservation value consumers on the other side. Firms can obtain positive profits in price competition. In these asymmetric equilibria product differentiation is endogenized by the network choices of consumers. Heterogeneity of consumers is necessary for the existence of this type of equilibrium. JEL Code: D43, D62, L10. Attila Ambrus Rossella Argenziano Department of Economics Department of Economics Harvard University Yale University Cambridge, MA 02138 New Haven, CT 06520-8268 -
Contemporaneous Perfect Epsilon-Equilibria
Games and Economic Behavior 53 (2005) 126–140 www.elsevier.com/locate/geb Contemporaneous perfect epsilon-equilibria George J. Mailath a, Andrew Postlewaite a,∗, Larry Samuelson b a University of Pennsylvania b University of Wisconsin Received 8 January 2003 Available online 18 July 2005 Abstract We examine contemporaneous perfect ε-equilibria, in which a player’s actions after every history, evaluated at the point of deviation from the equilibrium, must be within ε of a best response. This concept implies, but is stronger than, Radner’s ex ante perfect ε-equilibrium. A strategy profile is a contemporaneous perfect ε-equilibrium of a game if it is a subgame perfect equilibrium in a perturbed game with nearly the same payoffs, with the converse holding for pure equilibria. 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. JEL classification: C70; C72; C73 Keywords: Epsilon equilibrium; Ex ante payoff; Multistage game; Subgame perfect equilibrium 1. Introduction Analyzing a game begins with the construction of a model specifying the strategies of the players and the resulting payoffs. For many games, one cannot be positive that the specified payoffs are precisely correct. For the model to be useful, one must hope that its equilibria are close to those of the real game whenever the payoff misspecification is small. To ensure that an equilibrium of the model is close to a Nash equilibrium of every possible game with nearly the same payoffs, the appropriate solution concept in the model * Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (G.J. Mailath), [email protected] (A. Postlewaite), [email protected] (L. -
The Folk Theorem in Repeated Games with Discounting Or with Incomplete Information
The Folk Theorem in Repeated Games with Discounting or with Incomplete Information Drew Fudenberg; Eric Maskin Econometrica, Vol. 54, No. 3. (May, 1986), pp. 533-554. Stable URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0012-9682%28198605%2954%3A3%3C533%3ATFTIRG%3E2.0.CO%3B2-U Econometrica is currently published by The Econometric Society. Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use, available at http://www.jstor.org/about/terms.html. JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless you have obtained prior permission, you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles, and you may use content in the JSTOR archive only for your personal, non-commercial use. Please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work. Publisher contact information may be obtained at http://www.jstor.org/journals/econosoc.html. Each copy of any part of a JSTOR transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printed page of such transmission. The JSTOR Archive is a trusted digital repository providing for long-term preservation and access to leading academic journals and scholarly literature from around the world. The Archive is supported by libraries, scholarly societies, publishers, and foundations. It is an initiative of JSTOR, a not-for-profit organization with a mission to help the scholarly community take advantage of advances in technology. For more information regarding JSTOR, please contact [email protected]. http://www.jstor.org Tue Jul 24 13:17:33 2007 Econornetrica, Vol. -
THE HUMAN SIDE of MECHANISM DESIGN a Tribute to Leo Hurwicz and Jean-Jacque Laffont
THE HUMAN SIDE OF MECHANISM DESIGN A Tribute to Leo Hurwicz and Jean-Jacque Laffont Daniel McFadden Department of Economics University of California, Berkeley December 4, 2008 [email protected] http://www.econ.berkeley.edu/~mcfadden/index.shtml ABSTRACT This paper considers the human side of mechanism design, the behavior of economic agents in gathering and processing information and responding to incentives. I first give an overview of the subject of mechanism design, and then examine a pervasive premise in this field that economic agents are rational in their information processing and decisions. Examples from applied mechanism design identify the roles of perceptions and inference in agent behavior, and the influence of systematic irrationalities and sociality on agent responses. These examples suggest that tolerance of behavioral faults be added to the criteria for good mechanism design. In principle-agent problems for example, designers should consider using experimental treatments in contracts, and statistical post-processing of agent responses, to identify and mitigate the effects of agent non-compliance with contract incentives. KEYWORDS: mechanism_design, principal-agent_problem, juries, welfare_theory JEL CLASSIFICATION: D000, D600, D610, D710, D800, C420, C700 THE HUMAN SIDE OF MECHANISM DESIGN A Tribute to Leo Hurwicz and Jean-Jacque Laffont Daniel McFadden1 1. Introduction The study of mechanism design, the systematic analysis of resource allocation institutions and processes, has been the most fundamental development -
Whither Game Theory? Towards a Theory of Learning in Games
Whither Game Theory? Towards a Theory of Learning in Games The MIT Faculty has made this article openly available. Please share how this access benefits you. Your story matters. Citation Fudenberg, Drew, and David K. Levine. “Whither Game Theory? Towards a Theory of Learning in Games.” Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 30, no. 4, Nov. 2016, pp. 151–70. As Published http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.30.4.151 Publisher American Economic Association Version Final published version Citable link http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/113940 Terms of Use Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. Journal of Economic Perspectives—Volume 30, Number 4—Fall 2016—Pages 151–170 Whither Game Theory? Towards a Theory of Learning in Games Drew Fudenberg and David K. Levine hen we were graduate students at MIT (1977–81), the only game theory mentioned in the first-year core was static Cournot (1838) oligopoly, W although Eric Maskin taught an advanced elective on game theory and mechanism design. Just ten years later, game theory had invaded mainstream economic research and graduate education, and instructors had a choice of three graduate texts: Fudenberg and Tirole (1991), Osborne and Rubinstein (1994), and Myerson (1997). Game theory has been successful in economics because it works empirically in many important circumstances. Many of the theoretical applications in the 1980s involved issues in industrial organization, like commitment and timing in patent races and preemptive investment. -
Learning About Bayesian Games
Learning to Play Bayesian Games1 Eddie Dekel, Drew Fudenberg and David K. Levine2 First draft: December 23, 1996 Current revision: July 13, 2002 Abstract This paper discusses the implications of learning theory for the analysis of games with a move by Nature. One goal is to illuminate the issues that arise when modeling situations where players are learning about the distribution of Nature’s move as well as learning about the opponents’ strategies. A second goal is to argue that quite restrictive assumptions are necessary to justify the concept of Nash equilibrium without a common prior as a steady state of a learning process. 1 This work is supported by the National Science Foundation under Grants 99-86170, 97-30181, and 97- 30493. We are grateful to Pierpaolo Battigalli, Dan Hojman and Adam Szeidl for helpful comments. 2 Departments of Economics: Northwestern and Tel Aviv Universities, Harvard University and UCLA. 2 1. Introduction This paper discusses the implications of learning theory for the analysis of games with a move by Nature.3 One of our goals is to illuminate some of the issues involved in modeling players’ learning about opponents’ strategies when the distribution of Nature’s moves is also unknown. A more specific goal is to investigate the concept of Nash equilibrium without a common prior, in which players have correct and hence common beliefs about one another’s strategies, but disagree about the distribution over Nature’s moves. This solution is worth considering given the recent popularity of papers that apply it, such as Banerjee and Somanathan [2001], Piketty [1995], and Spector [2000].4 We suggest that Nash equilibrium without a common prior is difficult to justify as the long- run result of a learning process, because it takes very special assumptions for the set of such equilibria to coincide with the set of steady states that could arise from learning. -
Heiko Rauhut: Game Theory. In: "The Oxford Handbook on Offender
Game theory Contribution to “The Oxford Handbook on Offender Decision Making”, edited by Wim Bernasco, Henk Elffers and Jean-Louis van Gelder —accepted and forthcoming— Heiko Rauhut University of Zurich, Institute of Sociology Andreasstrasse 15, 8050 Zurich, Switzerland [email protected] November 8, 2015 Abstract Game theory analyzes strategic decision making of multiple interde- pendent actors and has become influential in economics, political science and sociology. It provides novel insights in criminology, because it is a universal language for the unification of the social and behavioral sciences and allows deriving new hypotheses from fundamental assumptions about decision making. The first part of the chapter reviews foundations and assumptions of game theory, basic concepts and definitions. This includes applications of game theory to offender decision making in different strate- gic interaction settings: simultaneous and sequential games and signaling games. The second part illustrates the benefits (and problems) of game theoretical models for the analysis of crime and punishment by going in- depth through the “inspection game”. The formal analytics are described, point predictions are derived and hypotheses are tested by laboratory experiments. The article concludes with a discussion of theoretical and practical implications of results from the inspection game. 1 Foundations of game theory Most research on crime acknowledges that offender decision making does not take place in a vacuum. Nevertheless, most analytically oriented research applies decision theory to understand offenders. Tsebelis (1989) illustrates why this is a problem by using two examples: the decision to stay at home when rain is 1 probable and the decision to speed when you are in a hurry. -
Impossibility of Collusion Under Imperfect Monitoring with Flexible Production
Impossibility of Collusion under Imperfect Monitoring with Flexible Production By Yuliy Sannikov and Andrzej Skrzypacz* We show that it is impossible to achieve collusion in a duopoly when (a) goods are homogenous and firms compete in quantities; (b) new, noisy information arrives continuously, without sudden events; and (c) firms are able to respond to new information quickly. The result holds even if we allow for asymmetric equilibria or monetary transfers. The intuition is that the flexibility to respond quickly to new information unravels any collusive scheme. Our result applies to both a simple sta- tionary model and a more complicated one, with prices following a mean-reverting Markov process, as well as to models of dynamic cooperation in many other set- tings. (JEL D43, L2, L3) Collusion is a major problem in many mar- We study the scope of collusion in a quan- kets and has been an important topic of study tity-setting duopoly with homogenous goods in both applied and theoretical economics. From and flexible production—that is, if firms can exposed collusive cases, we know how numer- change output flow frequently.2 As in Green and ous real-life cartels have been organized and Porter (984), in our model firms cannot observe what kinds of agreements (either implicit or each other’s production decisions directly. They explicit) are likely to be successful in obtain- observe only noisy market prices/signals that ing collusive profits. At least since George J. depend on the total market supply. We show that Stigler (964), economists have recognized that collusion is impossible to achieve if: imperfect monitoring may destabilize cartels.