Best Experienced Payoff Dynamics and Cooperation in the Centipede Game
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Game Theory 2: Extensive-Form Games and Subgame Perfection
Game Theory 2: Extensive-Form Games and Subgame Perfection 1 / 26 Dynamics in Games How should we think of strategic interactions that occur in sequence? Who moves when? And what can they do at different points in time? How do people react to different histories? 2 / 26 Modeling Games with Dynamics Players Player function I Who moves when Terminal histories I Possible paths through the game Preferences over terminal histories 3 / 26 Strategies A strategy is a complete contingent plan Player i's strategy specifies her action choice at each point at which she could be called on to make a choice 4 / 26 An Example: International Crises Two countries (A and B) are competing over a piece of land that B occupies Country A decides whether to make a demand If Country A makes a demand, B can either acquiesce or fight a war If A does not make a demand, B keeps land (game ends) A's best outcome is Demand followed by Acquiesce, worst outcome is Demand and War B's best outcome is No Demand and worst outcome is Demand and War 5 / 26 An Example: International Crises A can choose: Demand (D) or No Demand (ND) B can choose: Fight a war (W ) or Acquiesce (A) Preferences uA(D; A) = 3 > uA(ND; A) = uA(ND; W ) = 2 > uA(D; W ) = 1 uB(ND; A) = uB(ND; W ) = 3 > uB(D; A) = 2 > uB(D; W ) = 1 How can we represent this scenario as a game (in strategic form)? 6 / 26 International Crisis Game: NE Country B WA D 1; 1 3X; 2X Country A ND 2X; 3X 2; 3X I Is there something funny here? I Is there something funny here? I Specifically, (ND; W )? I Is there something funny here? -
Lecture Notes
GRADUATE GAME THEORY LECTURE NOTES BY OMER TAMUZ California Institute of Technology 2018 Acknowledgments These lecture notes are partially adapted from Osborne and Rubinstein [29], Maschler, Solan and Zamir [23], lecture notes by Federico Echenique, and slides by Daron Acemoglu and Asu Ozdaglar. I am indebted to Seo Young (Silvia) Kim and Zhuofang Li for their help in finding and correcting many errors. Any comments or suggestions are welcome. 2 Contents 1 Extensive form games with perfect information 7 1.1 Tic-Tac-Toe ........................................ 7 1.2 The Sweet Fifteen Game ................................ 7 1.3 Chess ............................................ 7 1.4 Definition of extensive form games with perfect information ........... 10 1.5 The ultimatum game .................................. 10 1.6 Equilibria ......................................... 11 1.7 The centipede game ................................... 11 1.8 Subgames and subgame perfect equilibria ...................... 13 1.9 The dollar auction .................................... 14 1.10 Backward induction, Kuhn’s Theorem and a proof of Zermelo’s Theorem ... 15 2 Strategic form games 17 2.1 Definition ......................................... 17 2.2 Nash equilibria ...................................... 17 2.3 Classical examples .................................... 17 2.4 Dominated strategies .................................. 22 2.5 Repeated elimination of dominated strategies ................... 22 2.6 Dominant strategies .................................. -
Modeling Strategic Behavior1
Modeling Strategic Behavior1 A Graduate Introduction to Game Theory and Mechanism Design George J. Mailath Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania Research School of Economics, Australian National University 1September 16, 2020, copyright by George J. Mailath. World Scientific Press published the November 02, 2018 version. Any significant correc- tions or changes are listed at the back. To Loretta Preface These notes are based on my lecture notes for Economics 703, a first-year graduate course that I have been teaching at the Eco- nomics Department, University of Pennsylvania, for many years. It is impossible to understand modern economics without knowl- edge of the basic tools of game theory and mechanism design. My goal in the course (and this book) is to teach those basic tools so that students can understand and appreciate the corpus of modern economic thought, and so contribute to it. A key theme in the course is the interplay between the formal development of the tools and their use in applications. At the same time, extensions of the results that are beyond the course, but im- portant for context are (briefly) discussed. While I provide more background verbally on many of the exam- ples, I assume that students have seen some undergraduate game theory (such as covered in Osborne, 2004, Tadelis, 2013, and Wat- son, 2013). In addition, some exposure to intermediate microeco- nomics and decision making under uncertainty is helpful. Since these are lecture notes for an introductory course, I have not tried to attribute every result or model described. The result is a somewhat random pattern of citations and references. -
Comparative Statics and Perfect Foresight in Infinite Horizon Economies
Digitized by the Internet Archive in 2011 with funding from Boston Library Consortium IVIember Libraries http://www.archive.org/details/comparativestatiOOkeho working paper department of economics Comparative Statics And Perfect Foresight in Infinite Horizon Economies Timothy J. Kehoe David K. Levine* Number 312 December 1982 massachusetts institute of technology 50 memorial drive Cambridge, mass. 02139 Comparative Statics And Perfect Foresight in Infinite Horizon Economies Timothy J. Kehoe David K. Levine* Number 312 December 1982 Department of Economics, M.I.T. and Department of Economics, U.C.L.A., respectively. Abstract This paper considers whether infinite horizon economies have determinate perfect foresight equilibria. ¥e consider stationary pure exchange economies with both finite and infinite numbers of agents. When there is a finite number of infinitely lived agents, we argue that equilibria are generically determinate. This is because the number of equations determining the equilibria is not infinite, but is equal to the number of agents minus one and must determine the marginal utility of income for all but one agent. In an overlapping generations model with infinitely many finitely lived agents, this reasoning breaks down. ¥e ask whether the initial conditions together with the requirement of convergence to a steady state locally determine an equilibrium price path. In this framework there are many economies with isolated equilibria, many with continue of equilibria, and many with no equilibria at all. With two or more goods in every period not only can the price level be indeterminate but relative prices as well. Furthermore, such indeterminacy can occur whether or not there is fiat money in the economy. -
Dynamic Games Under Bounded Rationality
Munich Personal RePEc Archive Dynamic Games under Bounded Rationality Zhao, Guo Southwest University for Nationalities 8 March 2015 Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/62688/ MPRA Paper No. 62688, posted 09 Mar 2015 08:52 UTC Dynamic Games under Bounded Rationality By ZHAO GUO I propose a dynamic game model that is consistent with the paradigm of bounded rationality. Its main advantages over the traditional approach based on perfect rationality are that: (1) the strategy space is a chain-complete partially ordered set; (2) the response function is certain order-preserving map on strategy space; (3) the evolution of economic system can be described by the Dynamical System defined by the response function under iteration; (4) the existence of pure-strategy Nash equilibria can be guaranteed by fixed point theorems for ordered structures, rather than topological structures. This preference-response framework liberates economics from the utility concept, and constitutes a marriage of normal-form and extensive-form games. Among the common assumptions of classical existence theorems for competitive equilibrium, one is central. That is, individuals are assumed to have perfect rationality, so as to maximize their utilities (payoffs in game theoretic usage). With perfect rationality and perfect competition, the competitive equilibrium is completely determined, and the equilibrium depends only on their goals and their environments. With perfect rationality and perfect competition, the classical economic theory turns out to be deductive theory that requires almost no contact with empirical data once its assumptions are accepted as axioms (see Simon 1959). Zhao: Southwest University for Nationalities, Chengdu 610041, China (e-mail: [email protected]). -
Chemical Game Theory
Chemical Game Theory Jacob Kautzky Group Meeting February 26th, 2020 What is game theory? Game theory is the study of the ways in which interacting choices of rational agents produce outcomes with respect to the utilities of those agents Why do we care about game theory? 11 nobel prizes in economics 1994 – “for their pioneering analysis of equilibria in the thoery of non-cooperative games” John Nash Reinhard Selten John Harsanyi 2005 – “for having enhanced our understanding of conflict and cooperation through game-theory” Robert Aumann Thomas Schelling Why do we care about game theory? 2007 – “for having laid the foundatiouns of mechanism design theory” Leonid Hurwicz Eric Maskin Roger Myerson 2012 – “for the theory of stable allocations and the practice of market design” Alvin Roth Lloyd Shapley 2014 – “for his analysis of market power and regulation” Jean Tirole Why do we care about game theory? Mathematics Business Biology Engineering Sociology Philosophy Computer Science Political Science Chemistry Why do we care about game theory? Plato, 5th Century BCE Initial insights into game theory can be seen in Plato’s work Theories on prisoner desertions Cortez, 1517 Shakespeare’s Henry V, 1599 Hobbes’ Leviathan, 1651 Henry orders the French prisoners “burn the ships” executed infront of the French army First mathematical theory of games was published in 1944 by John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern Chemical Game Theory Basics of Game Theory Prisoners Dilemma Battle of the Sexes Rock Paper Scissors Centipede Game Iterated Prisoners Dilemma -
Network Markets and Consumer Coordination
NETWORK MARKETS AND CONSUMER COORDINATION ATTILA AMBRUS ROSSELLA ARGENZIANO CESIFO WORKING PAPER NO. 1317 CATEGORY 9: INDUSTRIAL ORGANISATION OCTOBER 2004 PRESENTED AT KIEL-MUNICH WORKSHOP ON THE ECONOMICS OF INFORMATION AND NETWORK INDUSTRIES, AUGUST 2004 An electronic version of the paper may be downloaded • from the SSRN website: www.SSRN.com • from the CESifo website: www.CESifo.de CESifo Working Paper No. 1317 NETWORK MARKETS AND CONSUMER COORDINATION Abstract This paper assumes that groups of consumers in network markets can coordinate their choices when it is in their best interest to do so, and when coordination does not require communication. It is shown that multiple asymmetric networks can coexist in equilibrium if consumers have heterogeneous reservation values. A monopolist provider might choose to operate multiple networks to price differentiate consumers on both sides of the market. Competing network providers might operate networks such that one of them targets high reservation value consumers on one side of the market, while the other targets high reservation value consumers on the other side. Firms can obtain positive profits in price competition. In these asymmetric equilibria product differentiation is endogenized by the network choices of consumers. Heterogeneity of consumers is necessary for the existence of this type of equilibrium. JEL Code: D43, D62, L10. Attila Ambrus Rossella Argenziano Department of Economics Department of Economics Harvard University Yale University Cambridge, MA 02138 New Haven, CT 06520-8268 -
Contemporaneous Perfect Epsilon-Equilibria
Games and Economic Behavior 53 (2005) 126–140 www.elsevier.com/locate/geb Contemporaneous perfect epsilon-equilibria George J. Mailath a, Andrew Postlewaite a,∗, Larry Samuelson b a University of Pennsylvania b University of Wisconsin Received 8 January 2003 Available online 18 July 2005 Abstract We examine contemporaneous perfect ε-equilibria, in which a player’s actions after every history, evaluated at the point of deviation from the equilibrium, must be within ε of a best response. This concept implies, but is stronger than, Radner’s ex ante perfect ε-equilibrium. A strategy profile is a contemporaneous perfect ε-equilibrium of a game if it is a subgame perfect equilibrium in a perturbed game with nearly the same payoffs, with the converse holding for pure equilibria. 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. JEL classification: C70; C72; C73 Keywords: Epsilon equilibrium; Ex ante payoff; Multistage game; Subgame perfect equilibrium 1. Introduction Analyzing a game begins with the construction of a model specifying the strategies of the players and the resulting payoffs. For many games, one cannot be positive that the specified payoffs are precisely correct. For the model to be useful, one must hope that its equilibria are close to those of the real game whenever the payoff misspecification is small. To ensure that an equilibrium of the model is close to a Nash equilibrium of every possible game with nearly the same payoffs, the appropriate solution concept in the model * Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (G.J. Mailath), [email protected] (A. Postlewaite), [email protected] (L. -
The Folk Theorem in Repeated Games with Discounting Or with Incomplete Information
The Folk Theorem in Repeated Games with Discounting or with Incomplete Information Drew Fudenberg; Eric Maskin Econometrica, Vol. 54, No. 3. (May, 1986), pp. 533-554. Stable URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0012-9682%28198605%2954%3A3%3C533%3ATFTIRG%3E2.0.CO%3B2-U Econometrica is currently published by The Econometric Society. Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use, available at http://www.jstor.org/about/terms.html. JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless you have obtained prior permission, you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles, and you may use content in the JSTOR archive only for your personal, non-commercial use. Please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work. Publisher contact information may be obtained at http://www.jstor.org/journals/econosoc.html. Each copy of any part of a JSTOR transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printed page of such transmission. The JSTOR Archive is a trusted digital repository providing for long-term preservation and access to leading academic journals and scholarly literature from around the world. The Archive is supported by libraries, scholarly societies, publishers, and foundations. It is an initiative of JSTOR, a not-for-profit organization with a mission to help the scholarly community take advantage of advances in technology. For more information regarding JSTOR, please contact [email protected]. http://www.jstor.org Tue Jul 24 13:17:33 2007 Econornetrica, Vol. -
THE HUMAN SIDE of MECHANISM DESIGN a Tribute to Leo Hurwicz and Jean-Jacque Laffont
THE HUMAN SIDE OF MECHANISM DESIGN A Tribute to Leo Hurwicz and Jean-Jacque Laffont Daniel McFadden Department of Economics University of California, Berkeley December 4, 2008 [email protected] http://www.econ.berkeley.edu/~mcfadden/index.shtml ABSTRACT This paper considers the human side of mechanism design, the behavior of economic agents in gathering and processing information and responding to incentives. I first give an overview of the subject of mechanism design, and then examine a pervasive premise in this field that economic agents are rational in their information processing and decisions. Examples from applied mechanism design identify the roles of perceptions and inference in agent behavior, and the influence of systematic irrationalities and sociality on agent responses. These examples suggest that tolerance of behavioral faults be added to the criteria for good mechanism design. In principle-agent problems for example, designers should consider using experimental treatments in contracts, and statistical post-processing of agent responses, to identify and mitigate the effects of agent non-compliance with contract incentives. KEYWORDS: mechanism_design, principal-agent_problem, juries, welfare_theory JEL CLASSIFICATION: D000, D600, D610, D710, D800, C420, C700 THE HUMAN SIDE OF MECHANISM DESIGN A Tribute to Leo Hurwicz and Jean-Jacque Laffont Daniel McFadden1 1. Introduction The study of mechanism design, the systematic analysis of resource allocation institutions and processes, has been the most fundamental development -
CS711: Introduction to Game Theory and Mechanism Design
CS711: Introduction to Game Theory and Mechanism Design Teacher: Swaprava Nath Extensive Form Games Extensive Form Games Chocolate Division Game: Suppose a mother gives his elder son two (indivisible) chocolates to share between him and his younger sister. She also warns that if there is any dispute in the sharing, she will take the chocolates back and nobody will get anything. The brother can propose the following sharing options: (2-0): brother gets two, sister gets nothing, or (1-1): both gets one each, or (0-2): both chocolates to the sister. After the brother proposes the sharing, his sister may \Accept" the division or \Reject" it. Brother 2-0 1-1 0-2 Sister ARARAR (2; 0) (0; 0) (1; 1)(0; 0) (0; 2) (0; 0) 1 / 16 Game Theory and Mechanism Design Extensive Form Games S1 = f2 − 0; 1 − 1; 0 − 2g S2 = fA; Rg × fA; Rg × fA; Rg = fAAA; AAR; ARA; ARR; RAA; RAR; RRA; RRRg u1(2 − 0;A) = 2; u1(1 − 1;A) = 1; u2(1 − 1;A) = 1; u2(0 − 2;A) = 2 u1(0 − 2;A) = u1(0 − 2;R) = u1(1 − 1;R) = u1(2 − 0;R) = 0 u2(0 − 2;R) = u2(1 − 1;R) = u2(2 − 0;R) = u2(2 − 0;A) = 0 P (?) = 1;P (2 − 0) = P (1 − 1) = P (0 − 2) = 2 X (2 − 0) = X (1 − 1) = X (0 − 2) = fA; Rg X (?) = f(2 − 0); (1 − 1); (0 − 2)g Z = f(2 − 0;A); (2 − 0;R); (1 − 1;A); (1 − 1;R); (0 − 2;A); (0 − 2;R)g H = f?; (2 − 0); (1 − 1); (0 − 2); (2 − 0;A); (2 − 0;R); (1 − 1;A); (1 − 1;R); (0 − 2;A); (0 − 2;R)g N = f1 (brother); 2 (sister)g;A = f2 − 0; 1 − 1; 0 − 2; A; Rg Representing the Chocolate Division Game Brother 2-0 1-1 0-2 Sister ARARAR (2; 0) (0; 0) (1; 1)(0; 0) (0; 2) (0; 0) 2 / 16 Game Theory -
Whither Game Theory? Towards a Theory of Learning in Games
Whither Game Theory? Towards a Theory of Learning in Games The MIT Faculty has made this article openly available. Please share how this access benefits you. Your story matters. Citation Fudenberg, Drew, and David K. Levine. “Whither Game Theory? Towards a Theory of Learning in Games.” Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 30, no. 4, Nov. 2016, pp. 151–70. As Published http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.30.4.151 Publisher American Economic Association Version Final published version Citable link http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/113940 Terms of Use Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. Journal of Economic Perspectives—Volume 30, Number 4—Fall 2016—Pages 151–170 Whither Game Theory? Towards a Theory of Learning in Games Drew Fudenberg and David K. Levine hen we were graduate students at MIT (1977–81), the only game theory mentioned in the first-year core was static Cournot (1838) oligopoly, W although Eric Maskin taught an advanced elective on game theory and mechanism design. Just ten years later, game theory had invaded mainstream economic research and graduate education, and instructors had a choice of three graduate texts: Fudenberg and Tirole (1991), Osborne and Rubinstein (1994), and Myerson (1997). Game theory has been successful in economics because it works empirically in many important circumstances. Many of the theoretical applications in the 1980s involved issues in industrial organization, like commitment and timing in patent races and preemptive investment.