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Environmental Futures Research: Experiences, Approaches, and Opportunities United States Department of Agriculture Environmental Futures Forest Service Research: Experiences, Northern Research Station Approaches, and General Technical Report NRS-P-107 Opportunities Abstract These papers, presented in a special session at the International Symposium on Society and Resource Management in June 2011, explore the transdisciplinary fi eld of futures research and its application to long-range environmental analysis, planning, and policy. Futures research began in the post-World War II era and has emerged as a mature research fi eld. Although the future of complex social-ecological systems cannot be predicted, these papers show how futures research can offer perspectives and methods that help researchers, decisionmakers, and other stakeholders explore alternative futures and gain environmental foresight—insight that can inform decisionmaking on environmental challenges. One author points out that the study of the future can be thought of as the study of change. He discusses three types of futures: the expected future, a range of plausible alternatives, and the preferred future, which decisionmakers can shape depending on their choice of action. An example of the methodology of futures research is provided in another chapter, which illustrates the use of scenario development. Another chapter identifi es global trends that could dramatically change social-ecological systems. The second half of the collection applies the methods and approaches of futures research to natural resource management. A global and a regional scenario illustrate scenario planning, a methodology that produces sets of plausible futures that could develop from current conditions depending on alternative human choices and drivers of change. Another example demonstrates how analysts can incorporate global scenarios and modeling, and scoping of trends and issues, into forest inventory data to gain insight into the regional forests of tomorrow. A chapter on linking global scenarios with assessments of U.S. natural resources as required under the Resources Planning Act considers both opportunities and challenges. Lessons learned from an analysis of futures research conducted since the 1970s at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency are also offered. These papers suggest that the perspectives and methods of futures research hold great potential for developing the foresight needed to meet environmental challenges of the 21st century. The fi ndings and conclusions of each article in this publication are those of the individual author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. All articles were received in digital format and were edited for uniform type and style; each author is responsible for the accuracy and content of his or her own paper. Manuscript received for publication 1 June 2012 Published by: For additional copies: U.S. FOREST SERVICE U.S. Forest Service 11 CAMPUS BLVD SUITE 200 Publications Distribution NEWTOWN SQUARE PA 19073 359 Main Road Delaware, OH 43015-8640 Fax: (740)368-0152 November 2012 Email: [email protected] Visit our homepage at: http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/ Environmental Futures Research: Experiences, Approaches, and Opportunities Compiled by David N. Bengston The Authors David N. Bengston, Peter C. Bishop, Stephen R. Carpenter, Peter J. Ince, George H. Kubik, Linda L. Langner, W. Keith Moser, Robert L. Olson, Adena R. Rissman, Stephen R. Shifley, and Kay E. Strong General Technical Report NRS-P-107 Page intentionally left blank CONTENTS Foreword .................................................................................................................................1 David N. Bengston Futures Research: A Neglected Dimension in Environmental Policy and Planning ...............................4 David N. Bengston An Approach to the Future ...............................................................................................13 Peter C. Bishop A Framework for Developing Foresight in Natural Resource Management .........18 Kay E. Strong Global Mega Forces: Implications for the Future of Natural Resources ...............25 George H. Kubik Scenarios and Decisionmaking for Complex Environmental Systems .................37 Stephen R. Carpenter and Adena R. Rissman The Northern Forest Futures Project: A Forward Look at Forest Conditions in the Northern United States ....................44 W. Keith Moser and Stephen R. Shifl ey Linking Global Scenarios to National Assessments: Experiences from the Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment .......................... 55 Linda L. Langner and Peter J. Ince Environmental Futures Research at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency ..............................................................................................................66 Robert L. Olson About the Authors ..............................................................................................................78 Page intentionally left blank FOREWORD David N. Bengston Environmental foresight is insight into future in Madison, WI, on June 6, 2011. Speakers in these environmental challenges and opportunities, and the sessions included academic and professional futurists, ability to apply that insight to prepare wisely for a as well as environmental researchers who have applied sustainable future. Successful environmental planning, futures methods in their work. management, and policy require the development and continual updating of foresight. U.S. Environmental Th e fi rst four papers introduce futures research as a Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Stephen broad approach to developing environmental foresight Johnson has stated: “Failure to look beyond present and highlight some fundamental principles of futures conditions only ensures that emerging problems will be thinking. In the opening paper I provide an overview more diffi cult to address and that opportunities may be of futures research. Th e goal of futures research is to missed” (U.S. EPA 2005: 1). Th e soundness and acuity explore possible, plausible, and preferable futures in of our environmental foresight are key determinants of order to anticipate and prepare for those futures. I success in addressing critical environmental issues. briefl y trace the development of futures research from its beginnings in the post-World War II era, to a Rapid technological, socio-cultural, and economic mature transdisciplinary fi eld with a considerable body changes with the potential for sweeping environmental of literature, many specialized journals, professional eff ects have greatly increased the need for environmental organizations, and distinct methods. Th e paper concludes foresight. In addition to the increasing pace of change, with a call for environmental futures research to help some who study social-ecological systems believe that develop the foresight needed for a sustainable future. “surprise” is pervasive and increasing along with the expanding scale of human impacts (Gunderson and In an insightful paper, Peter Bishop, professor and Folke 2008, Kates and Clark 1996). Examples of director of the graduate program in Futures Studies at environmental surprise range from sudden disasters like the University of Houston, identifi es some fundamental the collapse of fi sheries to more gradual events such as perspectives for thinking about and approaching the unexpected eff ects of climate change. Surprise greatly study of the future. He begins with a consideration of complicates the challenge of developing environmental change because, as he states, “the study of the future is foresight. Th e prevalence of surprise in social-ecological the study of change.” After describing the four main systems implies that some important uncertainties are attributes of change, Professor Bishop addresses an irreducible and that traditional scientifi c tools are blunt approach to forecasting that takes uncertainty seriously. instruments for developing environmental foresight. He concludes by identifying three broad drivers of the New approaches are needed. future and how each driver can be thought of as creating a diff erent type of future: the baseline future, a range of Although no one can predict the future of complex alternative futures, and the preferred future. social-ecological systems, the authors of the papers in this compilation believe that it is both possible and urgent Futurist and economist Kay Strong of Baldwin-Wallace to develop useful insights into emerging environmental College—and a graduate of and former instructor in the problems and needs, and to apply these insights to help Futures Studies program at the University of Houston— achieve a sustainable future. Th e authors explore the describes a framework for developing foresight that potential of futures research, a transdisciplinary fi eld has been used to prepare professional futurists at the of inquiry that has been developing for more than 50 University of Houston. Framework forecasting is years, to address this important challenge. Th e papers an organizing technique for gathering and sorting were presented in two sessions at the International information about the topic of interest when conducting Symposium on Society and Resource Management, held futures research. Professor Strong also briefl y describes Environmental futures research: experiences, approaches, and opportunities GTR-NRS-P-107 1 the process of scenario development, a core method A long-standing and prominent futures assessment of futures research that can
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