ROSWELL V. THE INSURANCE GROUP – WINDER, GEORGIA

NOTE: THIS SAMPLE REPORT IS MEANT TO SHOW YOU WHAT OUR REPORTS GENERALLY LOOK LIKE. EACH REPORT WILL BE CATERED SPECIFICALLY TO YOUR CASE. NAMES AND LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN CHANGED TO PRESERVE CONFIDENTIALITY.

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FORENSIC WEATHER INVESTIGATION OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND RAIN ACCUMULATION ON APRIL 19, 2019 AND FEBRUARY 5-6, 2020 AT 123 BRENTON ROAD IN WINDER, GEORGIA

December 21, 2020

CASE NAME: “Roswell v. The Insurance Group” PREPARED FOR: Mr. Bob Berger, Esquire COMPANY: Berger and Partners, LLP

This written report and all of the tables, graphs, findings, data, and opinions contained in it has been prepared for use with this specific case only. Use of any of this information for any other matter, claim or case other than what is indicated above, including for use in expert disclosures in other cases, is strictly prohibited.

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ROSWELL V. THE INSURANCE GROUP – WINDER, GEORGIA

ASSIGNMENT:

This case was assigned to me by Berger and Partners, LLP. I was asked to perform an in-depth weather analysis and forensic weather investigation at 123 Brenton Road in Winder, Georgia in order to determine what the weather conditions were on April 19th, 2019 and February 5th-6th, 2020.

METHODOLOGY:

Forensic Weather Consultants, LLC uses various reliable sources of weather information in order to conduct a reliable weather analysis. In order to accurately determine the weather conditions that existed leading up to and including the time of the incident, a detailed search was performed to find the closest, official weather stations to the incident location. Using the computer program “Google Earth”, weather station locations provided by the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) and MesoWest were plotted and are indicated by a yellow pushpin. MesoWest is a cooperative project that was started at the University of Utah in 1996 with a goal of providing access to current and archived weather observations from across the United States through internet-based resources. Additional data sources were obtained which are listed below. While not all of the weather data can be certified by the NCEI, the majority if not all of the data is housed and maintained on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration websites including ncei.noaa.gov and raws.wrh.noaa.gov and are the records that meteorologists rely upon during the normal course of business to conduct these kinds investigations.

GENERAL REVIEW OF WEATHER DATA SOURCES

Many different types of weather data are gathered and analyzed as part of our investigations. While some, but not necessarily all, of these weather data sources were utilized for this case, we are providing a list of the different types of stations for informational purposes.

The Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS) program is a joint effort of the National Weather Service (NWS), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and the Department of Defense (DOD). The ASOS systems serve as the nation's primary surface weather observing network. The ASOS systems compile various weather observations, often more than once per hour, called Local Climatological Data (LCD) that are reviewed, maintained, and stored by NOAA. ASOS computed wind speeds are the 2-minute average wind speed prior to the time of the observation. ASOS computed wind gusts are the greatest 5-second average wind speed that was measured in the 10 minutes prior to the time of the observation. Wind gusts are reported if the greatest gust exceeds 14 knots (16 MPH). ASOS also computes peak wind gusts which are the greatest 5-second average wind speed that occurred since the last generated Meteorological Aerodrome Report (METAR). Peak wind gusts are reported if the greatest peak wind gust exceeds 25 knots (29 MPH).

Through the National Weather Service (NWS) Cooperative Observer Program (COOP), more than 10,000 volunteers take daily weather observations at National Parks, seashores, mountaintops, and farms as well as in urban and suburban areas. COOP data usually consists of

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ROSWELL V. THE INSURANCE GROUP – WINDER, GEORGIA daily maximum and minimum temperatures, snowfall, and 24-hour precipitation totals ending at a specific time, such as 7:00 a.m. in many locations.

The Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) is a network consisting of volunteer weather observers across the United States, Canada, and the Bahamas. These volunteers take daily precipitation measurements and report them to a centralized data store online, where this data is heavily utilized by the NWS, meteorologists, emergency managers and city utilities. CoCoRaHS data is particularly useful in situations where storm systems produce sharp precipitation gradients.

The Hydrometeorological Automated Data System (HADS) is a real-time data acquisition, processing, and distribution system running as part of the Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS) operated by NCEP Central Operations (NCO). The system exists in support of National Weather Service (NWS) activities of national scope, specifically the Flood and Flash Flood Warning programs administered by the Weather Service Forecast Offices and the operations performed at River Forecast Centers throughout the United States. Additionally, HADS created data products bolster several other NWS program areas including fire weather support services, local and national analysis of precipitation events, hydrological and meteorological modeling, and the verification of NEXRAD precipitation estimates and hydrological models.

One of the most effective tools to detect precipitation is radar. Radar, which stands for RAdio Detection And Ranging, has been utilized to detect precipitation, and especially thunderstorms, since the 1940's. The radar used by the National Weather Service is called the WSR-88D, which stands for Weather Surveillance Radar - 1988 Doppler (the prototype radar was built in 1988). As its name suggests, the WSR-88D is a Doppler radar, meaning it can detect motions toward or away from the radar as well as the location of precipitation areas. There are approximately 155 WSR-88D Doppler radar in the nation, including the U.S. Territory of Guam and the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, operated by the National Weather Service and the Department of Defense. Doppler radar images and several other types of weather records were used in this study. Doppler radar images are useful for locating precipitation. As the radar unit sends a pulse of energy into the atmosphere and if any precipitation is intercepted by the energy, part of the energy is scattered back to the radar. These return signals, called “radar echoes”, are assembled to produce radar images. The location of these radar echoes helps indicate where precipitation may be falling, and the various colors on the color code key on the right side of the radar image indicates intensity. Doppler radar images are processed approximately every 1 to 5 minutes and can determine if precipitation was falling at the incident location and if so, when it started and stopped.

Doppler radar Storm Total Precipitation (S.T.P.) images estimate how much rain accumulated. These S.T.P. images are processed every few minutes and are especially useful in determining rainfall amounts where rain measurement equipment is not present.

Dual-polarized (dual-pol) radar technology provides advanced radar products to help determine the type and intensity of precipitation and how much may have accumulated. It can also help tell the difference between smoke, birds, bats, and bugs, and confirm that tornadoes are on the

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ROSWELL V. THE INSURANCE GROUP – WINDER, GEORGIA ground causing damage. One of the most common features of Dual-pol radar products is the ability to identify hail. With dual-pol technology, the radar image becomes two-dimensional because the radar sends both horizontally and vertically polarized electromagnetic waves. As these perpendicular fields bounce off an object and are received back at the radar, a computer program separately processes information about the horizontal and vertical dimension of the particles. This cross-section now gives forecasters a measure of the size and shape of the object. A visualization of the dual process can be found below.

The National Weather Service (NWS) offices around the country issue numerous weather alerts, advisories, warnings, statements, bulletins, and storm reports and these are also utilized in our investigations. A map depicting the locations of these NWS offices can be found below.

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ROSWELL V. THE INSURANCE GROUP – WINDER, GEORGIA

GOOGLE EARTH MAPS OF INCIDENT LOCATION AND WEATHER STATIONS

The incident location was plotted by our office and is indicated by a red pushpin. The following map will help give you an approximate location of the National Weather Service Hourly Surface Weather Observations stations we used in this study and their proximity to the incident location.

The following map will help give you an approximate location of the Hydrometeorological Automated Data System (HADS) station we used in this study and its proximity to the incident location.

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ROSWELL V. THE INSURANCE GROUP – WINDER, GEORGIA

The following map will help give you an approximate location of the Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) and Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) stations we used in this study and their proximity to the incident location.

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ROSWELL V. THE INSURANCE GROUP – WINDER, GEORGIA

In order to perform my analysis of the weather conditions that existed, I obtained and reviewed official copies of the following weather records (the distance from the incident location and each weather station is also provided):

a. National Weather Service Hourly Surface Weather Observations/Local

Climatological Data (LCD) from the Barrow County Airport in Winder,

Georgia (approximately xxx miles south-southeast of the incident location).

b. National Weather Service Hourly Surface Weather Observations/Local

Climatological Data (LCD) from the Jackson County Airport in Jefferson,

Georgia (approximately xxx miles northeast of the incident location).

c. National Weather Service Hourly Surface Weather Observations/Local

Climatological Data (LCD) from the Gwinnett County Airport-Briscoe Field

in Lawrenceville, Georgia (approximately xxx miles west-southwest of the

incident location).

d. National Weather Service Hourly Surface Weather Observations/Local

Climatological Data (LCD) from the Lee Gilmer Memorial Airport in

Gainesville, Georgia (approximately xxx miles northwest of the incident

location).

e. National Weather Service Hourly Surface Weather Observations/Local

Climatological Data (LCD) from the Athens/Ben Epps Airport in Athens,

Georgia (approximately xxx miles east-southeast of the incident location).

f. Hydrometeorological Automated Data System (HADS) station reports from

WNRG1 – Mulberry Creek Near Winder 4N, Georgia (approximately xxx

miles west-northwest of the incident location).

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ROSWELL V. THE INSURANCE GROUP – WINDER, GEORGIA

g. Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) reports

from Winder 3.9 NNE, Georgia (approximately xxx miles northeast of the

incident location).

h. Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) reports

from Jefferson 5.1 SW, Georgia (approximately xxx miles northeast of the

incident location).

i. Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) reports

from Jefferson 5.5 WSW, Georgia (approximately xxx miles north-northeast

of the incident location).

j. Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) reports

from Auburn 1.6 E, Georgia (approximately xxx miles west-southwest of the

incident location).

k. Online Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS)

reports for Barrow County in Georgia, Gwinnett County in Georgia, Walton

County in Georgia, Hall County in Georgia, Oconee County in Georgia, and

Jackson County in Georgia.

l. 1981-2010 Station Normals of Temperature, Precipitation, and Heating and

Cooling Degree Days data from Winder 4 S, Georgia (approximately xxx

miles south-southwest of the incident location).

m. 1981-2010 Station Normals of Temperature, Precipitation, and Heating and

Cooling Degree Days data from the Lee Gilmer Memorial Airport in

Gainesville, Georgia (approximately xxx miles northwest of the incident

location).

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ROSWELL V. THE INSURANCE GROUP – WINDER, GEORGIA

n. Summary of Monthly Normals 1981-2010 data from Winder 4 S, Georgia

(approximately xxx miles south-southwest of the incident location).

o. Summary of Monthly Normals 1981-2010 data from the Lee Gilmer

Memorial Airport in Gainesville, Georgia (approximately xxx miles northwest

of the incident location).

p. Super-resolution Reflectivity Doppler Radar images from the Atlanta, Georgia

radar site that were zoomed in over the incident location.

q. Storm Total Precipitation (S.T.P.) Doppler radar images from the Atlanta,

Georgia radar site that were zoomed in over the incident location.

r. Gibson Ridge Analyst Edition (GRAE) data from the Atlanta, Georgia radar

site.

s. Atmospheric sounding numerical data from Peachtree City, Georgia on April

19, 2019, February 5, 2020, and February 6, 2020.

t. Atmospheric sounding numerical data from Birmingham, Alabama on April

19, 2019.

u. Various weather bulletins, advisories and statements that were issued by the

National Weather Service (NWS) in Peachtree City, Georgia.

v. Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) Archived Warnings issued by the NWS

in Peachtree City, Georgia.

w. United States Surface Analysis images from the Weather Prediction Center

(WPC).

x. Storm Events Database from the National Centers for Environmental

Information (NCEI) for Barrow County in Georgia, Gwinnett County in

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ROSWELL V. THE INSURANCE GROUP – WINDER, GEORGIA

Georgia, Walton County in Georgia, Hall County in Georgia, Oconee County

in Georgia, and Jackson County in Georgia.

y. Atlas 14 Point Precipitation Frequency Estimator data from the National

Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

z. Weather Event Summary for April 19th, 2019 from the National Weather

Service in Peachtree City, Georgia.

aa. The publication “Assessing the U.S. Climate in April 2019” & National

Climate Report from the National Centers for Environmental Information

(NCEI).

bb. The publication “Assessing the U.S. Climate in January 2020” & National

Climate Report from the National Centers for Environmental Information

(NCEI).

cc. The publication “Assessing the U.S. Climate in February 2020” & National

Climate Report from the National Centers for Environmental Information

(NCEI).

The weather data and Climatological records used for this analysis are the official records that Meteorologists rely upon every day during the normal course of business and are either kept in our office or at the National Centers for Environmental Information. The findings in this report utilize the weather records that were available at the time of data retrieval for this case. Any additional weather records and data that become available at a later date may be incorporated into this report in the future.

It should be noted that the radar image date and time stamps that are given on the Doppler radar images are given in “GMT”, which is Greenwich Mean Time. In order to convert “GMT” to Eastern Daylight Time (EDT), a subtraction of 4 hours is necessary. In order to convert “GMT” to Eastern Standard Time (EST), a subtraction of 5 hours is necessary. Additionally, the hourly surface weather observations / Local Climatological Data are given in “Local Standard Time” which requires a one-hour forward time adjustment to obtain “Local Daylight Time.” The only exception to this is that some of the remarks themselves are given in GMT. The findings in this report have incorporated and converted all of these times correctly.

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ROSWELL V. THE INSURANCE GROUP – WINDER, GEORGIA

Numerous studies and research have been conducted which led to the accepted methodologies, standards, and practices that I employed during this study. These best practices and standards are based on documented research, accepted practices and principles that experienced meteorologists utilize in these kinds of investigations. Some of the many different guidelines can be found in online National Weather Service modules located at (https://training.weather.gov/wdtd/courses/rac/severe/svr-hail/presentation_html5.html), and they are utilized by NWS offices nationwide.

As part of my analysis, the incident location was manually plotted on each Doppler radar image in order to determine the intensity and values of the different radar products. These, along with the other weather records and data were used to complete my meteorological analysis.

The methodology, practices and principles I employed researching, analyzing and determining the weather information contained in this report is the industry-accepted way to determine the presence of hail, hail size, wind speeds, tornadoes and other weather conditions at a specific incident location. My findings, including extrapolation of the radar data and weather records, are all based on sound, scientific principles, practices, and accepted methodology in the field of meteorology.

METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS FOR APRIL 19, 2019

The following is a surface analysis map of the contiguous United States at 8:00 a.m. EDT on April 19th, 2019 that was prepared by the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), a division of the National Weather Service. This surface map indicated that a low-pressure system was located over Central Tennessee. A cold front extended to the south of this area of low pressure through the Florida Panhandle and into the Gulf of Mexico. A squall line was located from western North Carolina through west-central Georgia. A dissipating cold front was located from southern Tennessee through southern Alabama and into the Gulf of Mexico.

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ROSWELL V. THE INSURANCE GROUP – WINDER, GEORGIA

At the surface, air temperatures were in the low 70’s during the early morning and dew points were near 65 degrees Fahrenheit. The combination of instability, a lifting mechanism and other favorable atmospheric conditions led to the formation of thunderstorms and areas of heavy rain.

Doppler radar images that were zoomed in over the incident location and other information indicated that a cold front approached from the west and moved through the incident location on April 19th, 2019. Ahead of this cold front, periods of light rain affected the incident location during the early morning. A large area of mostly continuous light to frequently moderate and heavy rain, with embedded training thunderstorms, then affected the incident location from approximately 4:35 a.m. through 11:49 a.m. as the cold front approached and moved through the incident location. According to the National Weather Service (NWS), “training thunderstorms produce tremendous rainfall over relatively small areas leading to flash flooding1.” During this time, approximately 4.02” of rain accumulated at the incident location. A lull in the precipitation then occurred, but additional periods of light to occasionally moderate rain affected the incident location during the afternoon and evening. The total amount of precipitation that accumulated at the incident location on April 19th, 2019 was approximately 4.07”.

1 https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/tstrmtypes#:~:text=The%20term%20for%20this%20type,cell%20growth%20is %20quite%20vigorous.

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ROSWELL V. THE INSURANCE GROUP – WINDER, GEORGIA

The cold front propagated to the east, but within the area of precipitation ahead of it, the cells with moderate to heavy rain and strong thunderstorms moved toward the northeast.

A “Flash Flood Warning” was in effect for the incident location from 7:34 a.m. through 1:30 p.m. on April 19th, 2019, which stated, “At 734 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Up to two inches of rain have already fallen. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly.”

A “Severe Thunderstorm Warning” was in effect from 9:08 a.m. to 9:45 a.m. on April 19th, 2019 and stated that hail up to 1.00” in diameter and wind gusts in excess of 60 MPH were expected. This warning also stated that Winder, Georgia would be impacted by this severe weather. At 9:25 a.m. on April 19th, 2019, a “Severe Weather Statement” was issued to update the “Severe Thunderstorm Warning.” As a result, the “Severe Thunderstorm Warning” was no longer in effect for the incident location.

According to the National Weather Service, a “Severe Thunderstorm2” is defined as “a thunderstorm that produces a tornado, winds of at least 58 mph (50 knots), and/or hail at least 1" in diameter. Structural wind damage may imply the occurrence of a severe thunderstorm.” A thunderstorm wind equal to or greater than 40 mph (35 knots) and/or hail of at least 1" is defined as approaching severe.

A “Flood Warning” was issued by the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia for the Middle Oconee River at Arcade. This warning was in effect from 11:53 a.m. on April 19th, 2019 through 8:52 a.m. on April 21st, 2019.

Another “Flood Warning” was in effect from 1:33 p.m. through 7:30 p.m. on April 19th, 2019, which stated, “At 132 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated that rainfall accumulations up to 3 inches have occurred resulting in flooding. Despite much of the heavy rain shifting east, elevated water levels will continue. Roads have been washed out in some instances and creeks are out of their beds.”

It should be noted that on April 14th, 2019, just 5 days prior to April 19th, 2019, the CoCoRaHS station Winder 3.9 NNE (approximately xxx miles northeast of the incident location) indicated 1.41” of rain accumulated, the CoCoRaHS station Auburn 1.6 E (approximately xxx miles west- southwest of the incident location) indicated 1.19” of rain accumulated, and the HADS station WNGR1 (approximately xxx mile west-northwest of the incident location) indicated 1.09” of rain accumulated. This heavy rainfall event caused the ground to become wet and soils to become saturated.

DIGITAL STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION (S.T.P.) ANALYSIS FOR APRIL 19, 2019

In order to help determine the total rain accumulation for the 24-hour period and shorter hourly periods, Digital Storm Total Precipitation (S.T.P.) Doppler Radar images were utilized (Figures

2 https://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?word=severe+thunderstorm

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ROSWELL V. THE INSURANCE GROUP – WINDER, GEORGIA

1-4). S.T.P. estimated rainfall values at both the incident location and at Winder 3.9 NNE, Georgia, as well as the actual measured rainfall totals from Winder 3.9 NNE, Georgia, were used to determine the total rain accumulation at the incident location itself.

Figure 1: At approximately 12:07 a.m. EDT on April 19th, 2019, the Storm Total Precipitation (S.T.P) Doppler radar image above indicated that approximately 0.00” of rain accumulated at the incident location and at Winder 3.9 NNE, Georgia.

Figure 2: At approximately 5:05 a.m. EDT on April 19th, 2019, the Storm Total Precipitation (S.T.P) Doppler radar image above indicated that approximately 0.02” of rain accumulated at the incident location, and approximately 0.02” of rain accumulated at Winder 3.9 NNE, Georgia.

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ROSWELL V. THE INSURANCE GROUP – WINDER, GEORGIA

Figure 3: At approximately 11:05 a.m. EDT on April 19th, 2019, the Storm Total Precipitation (S.T.P) Doppler radar image above indicated that approximately 2.97” of rain accumulated at the incident location, and approximately 2.70” of rain accumulated at Winder 3.9 NNE, Georgia.

Figure 4: At approximately 11:02 p.m. EDT on April 19th, 2019, the Storm Total Precipitation (S.T.P) Doppler radar image above indicated that approximately 3.06” of rain accumulated at the incident location, and approximately 2.79” of rain accumulated at Winder 3.9 NNE, Georgia.

Following 11:02 p.m. on April 19th, 2019, S.T.P. Doppler radar reset and indicated that no other precipitation accumulated at the incident location through the remainder of the day. Therefore, S.T.P. Doppler radar images indicated that approximately 3.06” of rain accumulated at the

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ROSWELL V. THE INSURANCE GROUP – WINDER, GEORGIA incident location and approximately 2.79” of rain accumulated at Winder 3.9 NNE, Georgia on April 19th, 2019.

The actual amount of rain observed at Winder 3.9 NNE, Georgia on April 19th, 2019 was 3.80”. Therefore, the S.T.P. Doppler Radar images were underestimating the rain accumulation at Winder 3.9 NNE, Georgia on April 19th, 2019 by approximately 1.01”. Thus, 1.01” was then added to the S.T.P. value at the incident location, and it was determined that approximately 4.07” of rain accumulated at the incident location on April 19th, 2019.

It is important to note that the greatest 6-hour rainfall total occurred between approximately 5:05 a.m. and 11:05 a.m. on April 19th, 2019. During this time, the total rain accumulation that was indicated by S.T.P. Doppler radar at the incident location was approximately 2.95”. We then added the 1.01” S.T.P. Doppler radar underestimation to this value since this is when the majority of the precipitation occurred, and we determined that the 6-hour rainfall total at the incident location between 5:05 a.m. and 11:05 a.m. EDT on April 19th, 2019 was approximately 3.96”.

NOAA ATLAS 14 POINT PRECIPITATION FREQUENCY ESTIMATES

The following table and graphs indicate the point precipitation frequency estimate from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) at the incident location. The latitude and longitude of the incident location were put into the NOAA Atlas 14 Point Precipitation Frequency Estimator to obtain these figures3. The table and graphs indicate the average recurrence interval for precipitation given various durations from 5 minutes to 60 days.

3 https://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/pfds_map_cont.html

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ROSWELL V. THE INSURANCE GROUP – WINDER, GEORGIA

Figure 5: The table above is from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and shows the point precipitation frequency estimates at the incident location.

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ROSWELL V. THE INSURANCE GROUP – WINDER, GEORGIA

Figure 6: The graphs above are from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and show the partial duration series (PDS)-based depth-duration-frequency curves at the incident location.

According to the point precipitation frequency estimate table for the incident location:

• The average recurrence interval for a 24-hour rainfall total of 4.07” at the incident location is between 2-5 years.

• The average recurrence interval for a 6-hour rainfall total of 3.96” at the incident location is between 10-25 years.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BULLETINS, WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES

The following are publicly issued warnings, severe weather statements, and flood statements from the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia which included the incident

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ROSWELL V. THE INSURANCE GROUP – WINDER, GEORGIA location and surrounding areas.

At 7:34 a.m. on April 19th, 2019, the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia issued a “Flash Flood Warning” that was in effect for Central Barrow County in Georgia through 1:30 p.m. on April 19th, 2019:

Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 734 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 The National Weather Service in Peachtree City has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Central Barrow County in north central Georgia... Banks County in northeastern Georgia... Northwestern Clarke County in northeastern Georgia... Southeastern Hall County in north central Georgia... Jackson County in northeastern Georgia... Northwestern Madison County in northeastern Georgia... * Until 130 PM EDT. * At 734 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Up to two inches of rain have already fallen. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly. * Some locations that will experience flooding include... Gainesville, Jefferson, Commerce, Homer, Braselton, Lula, Maysville, Arcade, Nicholson, Hoschton, Pendergrass, Ila, Gillsville, Talmo, Athens-Clarke County, Candler, Westgate Park, Chateau Elan, Road Atlanta-Lanier Speedway and Hollingsworth. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.

At 9:08 a.m. on April 19th, 2019, the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia issued a “Severe Thunderstorm Warning” that was in effect for Southeastern Barrow County in Georgia through 9:45 a.m. on April 19th, 2019:

Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 908 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 The National Weather Service in Peachtree City has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Oconee County in northeastern Georgia... Southeastern Barrow County in north central Georgia... Northwestern Clarke County in northeastern Georgia... Northeastern Walton County in north central Georgia... Southeastern Jackson County in northeastern Georgia... * Until 945 AM EDT. * At 908 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Gratis, or near Monroe, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Winder, Monroe, Jefferson, Statham, Arcade, Bogart, North High Shoals, Bethlehem, Pendergrass, Good Hope, Athens-Clarke County, Westgate Park, Fort Yargo State Park, Beechwood Hills, Oconee Heights, Eastville, Nicholasville, Barretts Mill, Pannell and James Holland Youth Sports Cmpx. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. If you see wind damage...hail or flooding...wait until the storm has passed...and then call the National Weather Service toll free at 1 8 6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6 or tweet us your report at NWSATLANTA. && LAT...LON 3403 8333 3370 8360 3379 8379 3417 8366

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TIME...MOT...LOC 1308Z 211DEG 42KT 3385 8363 HAIL...1.00IN WIND...60MPH

At 9:25 a.m. on April 19th, 2019, the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia issued a “Severe Weather Statement” to update the “Severe Thunderstorm Warning” that was in effect for East Central Barrow County in Georgia. As a result, this warning was no longer in effect for the incident location:

Barrow GA-Clarke GA-Jackson GA- 925 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 AM EDT FOR EAST CENTRAL BARROW...NORTHWESTERN CLARKE AND SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES... At 925 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Bear Creek Reservoir, or 7 miles southeast of Jefferson, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. Locations impacted include... Jefferson, Arcade, Athens-Clarke County, Westgate Park, James Holland Youth Sports Cmpx, Bear Creek Reservoir, Sandy Creek Recreation Area, Oconee Heights and Barretts Mill. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3403 8333 3393 8343 3401 8363 3415 8361 TIME...MOT...LOC 1325Z 211DEG 42KT 3402 8351 HAIL...1.00IN WIND...60MPH

At 11:53 a.m. on April 19th, 2019, the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia issued a “Flood Warning” for the Middle Oconee River near Arcade, which was affecting Barrow County in Georgia, from the afternoon on April 19th, 2019 through the afternoon on April 20th, 2019:

Flood Warning National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1153 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 ...The National Weather Service in Peachtree City has issued a Flood Warning for the following rivers in Georgia... Etowah River near Dawsonville affecting Dawson and Forsyth Counties Middle Oconee River near Arcade affecting Barrow and Jackson Counties .Recent heavy rainfall has caused significant runoff into streams and rivers which will cause flooding in some areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... All persons with interests along the river should monitor the latest forecasts...and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect life and property. The latest stage data was furnished in cooperation with the United States Geological Survey. 1153 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 The National Weather Service in Peachtree City has issued a * Flood Warning for The Middle Oconee River near Arcade. * From this afternoon until Saturday afternoon. * At 11AM Friday the stage was 14.5 feet and rising. * Minor flooding is forecast. * Flood stage is 16 feet. * Forecast to rise above flood stage by late this afternoon and

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continue to rise to near 20.1 feet by after midnight tomorrow.The river will fall below flood stage by tomorrow late morning. * At 20 feet...Minor flooding continues to expand further into the woodlands...fields and pasture upstream and downstream from the gage at Georgia Highway 82. A few dirt access roads and a residential yard just downstream will be flooded with up to 4 feet of water.

At 1:33 p.m. on April 19th, 2019, the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia issued a “Flood Warning” that was in effect for Northern Barrow County in Georgia through 7:30 p.m. on April 19th, 2019:

Flood Warning National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 133 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 GAC011-013-059-139-157-195-192330- /O.NEW.KFFC.FA.W.0008.190419T1733Z-190419T2330Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Barrow GA-Banks GA-Clarke GA-Hall GA-Jackson GA-Madison GA- 133 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 The National Weather Service in Peachtree City has issued a * Flood Warning for... Northern Barrow County in north central Georgia... Banks County in northeastern Georgia... Northwestern Clarke County in northeastern Georgia... Southeastern Hall County in north central Georgia... Jackson County in northeastern Georgia... Northwestern Madison County in northeastern Georgia... * Until 730 PM EDT. * At 132 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated that rainfall accumulations up to 3 inches have occurred resulting in flooding. Despite much of the heavy rain shifting east, elevated water levels will continue. Roads have been washed out in some instances and creeks are out of their beds. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.

At 1:58 p.m. on April 19th, 2019, the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia issued a “Flood Statement,” which stated that the “Flood Warning” for the Middle Oconee River near Arcade continues through the afternoon on April 20th, 2019:

Flood Statement National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 158 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia... Middle Oconee River near Arcade affecting Barrow and Jackson Counties GAC013-157-200757- /O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0158.190419T1758Z-190420T2139Z/ /ACDG1.1.ER.190419T1646Z.190420T0600Z.190420T1539Z.NO/ 158 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 ...Flood Warning extended until Saturday afternoon...The Flood Warning continues for The Middle Oconee River near Arcade. * Until Saturday afternoon. * At 1 PM Friday the stage was 16.9 feet and rising. * Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. * Flood stage is 16 feet. * The river will continue rising to near 20.1 feet by after midnight tomorrow. The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow late morning. * At 20 feet...Minor flooding continues to expand further into the woodlands...fields and pasture upstream and downstream from the gage at Georgia Highway 82. A few dirt access roads and a residential yard just downstream will be flooded with up to 4 feet

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of water.

At 2:39 p.m. on April 19th, 2019, the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia issued a “Flood Statement,” which stated that the “Flood Warning” for the Middle Oconee River near Arcade continues through the afternoon on April 20th, 2019:

239 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 ...Flood Warning extended until Saturday afternoon... The Flood Warning continues for The Middle Oconee River near Arcade. * Until Saturday afternoon. * At 145 PM Friday the stage was 16.9 feet and rising. * Minor flooding is occurring, and minor flooding is forecast to continue. * Flood stage is 16 feet. * The river will continue rising, reaching near 18.9 feet by this evening. The river is expected to fall below flood stage Saturday morning. * Between 16 and 18 feet, minor flooding continues in the woodlands, fields and pastures upstream and downstream from the gage at Georgia Highway 82. A few dirt access roads and a residential yard just downstream will be flooded with up to two feet of water. Between 18 and 20 feet, minor flooding expands even further into the woodlands, fields and pastures upstream and downstream from the gage at Georgia Highway 82. A few dirt access roads and a residential yard just downstream will be flooded with up to 4 feet of water.

At 5:02 p.m. on April 19th, 2019, the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia issued a “Flood Statement,” which stated that the “Flood Warning” for the Middle Oconee River near Arcade continues through the evening on April 20th, 2019:

502 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 ...Flood Warning extended until Saturday evening... The Flood Warning continues for The Middle Oconee River near Arcade. * Until Saturday evening. * At 445 PM Friday the stage was 18.4 feet and rising. * Minor flooding is occurring, and minor flooding is forecast to continue. * Flood stage is 160 feet. * The river will continue rising, reaching near 20.9 feet early Saturday. The river will fall below flood stage Saturday afternoon. * Between 18 and 21 feet, minor flooding continues in the woodlands, fields and pastures upstream and downstream from the gage at Georgia Highway 82. A few dirt access roads and a residential yard just downstream will be flooded with up to two feet of water.

At 9:52 p.m. on April 19th, 2019, the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia issued a “Flood Statement,” which stated that the “Flood Warning” for the Middle Oconee River near Arcade continues through the evening on April 20th, 2019:

952 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 ...Observed flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity...... Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity...The Flood Warning continues for The Middle Oconee River near Arcade. * Until Saturday evening. * At 9 PM Friday the stage was 21.2 feet...and rising. * Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast. * Flood stage is 16 feet. * The river will continue rising to near 21.7 feet by after midnight Saturday. The river will fall below flood stage Saturday afternoon. * At 21 feet...Moderate flooding begins. Significant flooding occurs in the woodlands...fields and pasture upstream and

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downstream from the gage at Georgia Highway 82. A residential yard will be completely flooded with the water reaching the foundation of a house just downstream. The flood waters will be reaching Bismarck Circle Road upstream from the gage.

At 12:58 a.m. on April 20th, 2019, the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia issued a “Flood Statement,” which stated that the “Flood Warning” for the Middle Oconee River near Arcade was extended through the late evening on April 20th, 2019:

Flood Statement National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1258 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019 ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia... Middle Oconee River near Arcade affecting Barrow and Jackson Counties GAC013-157-201857- /O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0158.000000T0000Z-190421T0415Z/ /ACDG1.2.ER.190419T1646Z.190420T0600Z.190420T2215Z.NO/ 1258 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019 ...Flood Warning extended until late tonight...The Flood Warning continues for The Middle Oconee River near Arcade. * Until late tonight. * At 1245 AM Saturday the stage was 22.4 feet...and rising. * Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast. * Flood stage is 16.0 feet. * The river will continue rising to near 22.7 feet this morning. The river will fall below flood stage this evening. * At 23.0 feet...Significant flooding expands into the woodlands... fields and pasture upstream and downstream from the gage at Georgia Highway 82. A house just downstream will be surrounded with water and begin to flood. Flooding begins on low portions of Bismarck Circle Road upstream from the gage.

At 9:32 a.m. on April 20th, 2019, the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia issued a “Flood Statement,” which stated that the “Flood Warning” for the Middle Oconee River near Arcade was extended through the morning on April 21st, 2019:

Flood Statement National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 932 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019 ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia... Middle Oconee River near Arcade affecting Barrow and Jackson Counties GAC013-157-210332- /O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0158.000000T0000Z-190421T1514Z/ /ACDG1.2.ER.190419T1646Z.190420T1800Z.190421T0914Z.NR/ 932 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019 ...Flood Warning extended until Sunday morning...The Flood Warning continues for The Middle Oconee River near Arcade. * Until Sunday morning. * At 9 AM Saturday the stage was 24.5 feet...and rising slowly. * Moderate flooding will continue. * Flood stage is 16 feet. * The river will continue rising to near 25.2 feet by this afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage early Sunday. * At 25 feet...Significant flooding continues to expand further into the woodlands...fields and pasture upstream and downstream from the gage at Georgia Highway 82. The water level reaches the bottom of the bridge. A house just downstream will be flooded with two feet of water. The water will reach the foundations of a few homes on Bismarck Circle Road upstream from the gage and the rock drive of a house near the bridge.

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At 12:00 p.m. on April 20th, 2019, the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia issued a “Flood Statement,” which stated that the “Flood Warning” for the Middle Oconee River near Arcade continues through the morning on April 21st, 2019:

1200 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019 The Flood Warning continues for The Middle Oconee River near Arcade. * Until Sunday morning. * At 11 AM Saturday the stage was 24.4 feet and steady. * Moderate flooding is occurring and is forecast to continue. * Flood stage is 16 feet. * The river is expected to fall below flood stage early tomorrow. * At 25 feet...Significant flooding continues to expand further into the woodlands...fields and pasture upstream and downstream from the gage at Georgia Highway 82. The water level reaches the bottom of the bridge. A house just downstream will be flooded with two feet of water. The water will reach the foundations of a few homes on Bismarck Circle Road upstream from the gage and the rock drive of a house near the bridge.

At 1:32 p.m. on April 20th, 2019, the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia issued a “Flood Statement,” which stated that the “Flood Warning” for the Middle Oconee River near Arcade continues through the morning on April 21st, 2019:

132 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019 ...Flood Warning extended until Sunday morning...The Flood Warning continues for The Middle Oconee River near Arcade. * Until Sunday morning. * At 12 PM Saturday the stage was 24.2 feet and falling. * Moderate flooding is occurring and forecast to continue. * Flood stage is 16 feet. * The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by early tomorrow. * At 25 feet...Significant flooding continues to expand further into the woodlands...fields and pasture upstream and downstream from the gage at Georgia Highway 82. The water level reaches the bottom of the bridge. A house just downstream will be flooded with two feet of water. The water will reach the foundations of a few homes on Bismarck Circle Road upstream from the gage and the rock drive of a house near the bridge.

At 9:45 p.m. on April 20th, 2019, the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia issued a “Flood Statement,” which stated that the “Flood Warning” for the Middle Oconee River near Arcade continues through the morning on April 21st, 2019:

945 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019 ...Flood Warning extended until Sunday morning... The Flood Warning continues for The Middle Oconee River near Arcade. * Until Sunday morning. * At 845 PM Saturday the stage was 21.7 feet and falling. * Moderate flooding is occurring, however, minor flooding is forecast to develop by late Saturday evening. * Flood stage is 16 feet. Moderate Flood stage is 21 feet. * The river will continue to fall, dropping below flood stage Sunday morning. * At 21 feet, moderate flooding continues with significant flooding in the woodlands, fields and pastures upstream and downstream from the gage at Georgia Highway 82. A residential yard will be completely flooded with the water reaching the foundation at a house just downstream. The flood waters will reach Bismarck Circle Road upstream from the gage.

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At 10:58 p.m. on April 20th, 2019, the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia issued a “Flood Statement,” which stated that the “Flood Warning” for the Middle Oconee River near Arcade continues through the morning on April 21st, 2019:

Flood Statement National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1058 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019 ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia... Middle Oconee River near Arcade affecting Barrow and Jackson Counties GAC013-157-211442- /O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0158.000000T0000Z-190421T1442Z/ /ACDG1.2.ER.190419T1646Z.190420T1345Z.190421T0842Z.NR/ 1058 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019 The Flood Warning continues for The Middle Oconee River near Arcade. * Until Sunday morning. * At 1045 PM Saturday the stage was 20.9 feet...and falling. * Minor flooding is occurring. * Flood stage is 16.0 feet. * The river will continue to fall to below flood stage early Sunday. * At 21.0 feet...Moderate flooding begins. Significant flooding occurs in the woodlands...fields and pasture upstream and downstream from the gage at Georgia Highway 82. A residential yard will be completely flooded with the water reaching the foundation of a house just downstream. The flood waters will be reaching Bismarck Circle Road upstream from the gage.

At 5:04 a.m. on April 21st, 2019, the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia issued a “Flood Statement,” which stated that the “Flood Warning” for the Middle Oconee River near Arcade was extended through the afternoon on April 21st, 2019:

504 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019 ...Flood Warning extended until this afternoon...The Flood Warning continues for The Middle Oconee River near Arcade. * Until this afternoon. * At 445 AM Sunday the stage was 18.1 feet...and rising. * Minor flooding is occurring. * Flood stage is 16.0 feet. * The river will continue to fall to below flood stage this morning. * At 18.0 feet...Minor flooding continues in the woodlands...fields and pasture upstream and downstream from the gage at Georgia Highway 82. A few dirt access roads and a residential yard just downstream will be flooded with up to two feet of water.

At 5:07 a.m. on April 21st, 2019, the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia issued a “Flood Statement,” which stated that the “Flood Warning” for the Middle Oconee River near Arcade continues through the afternoon on April 21st, 2019:

Flood Statement National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 507 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019 ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia... Middle Oconee River near Arcade affecting Barrow and Jackson Counties GAC013-157-211608- /O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0158.000000T0000Z-190421T1608Z/ /ACDG1.2.ER.190419T1646Z.190420T1345Z.190421T1008Z.NR/ 507 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019 The Flood Warning continues for

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The Middle Oconee River near Arcade. * Until this afternoon. * At 445 AM Sunday the stage was 18.1 feet...and falling. * Minor flooding is occurring. * Flood stage is 16.0 feet. * The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by this morning. * At 18.0 feet...Minor flooding continues in the woodlands...fields and pasture upstream and downstream from the gage at Georgia Highway 82. A few dirt access roads and a residential yard just downstream will be flooded with up to two feet of water.

At 8:52 a.m. on April 21st, 2019, the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia issued a “Flood Statement” to cancel the “Flood Warning” that was in effect:

Flood Statement National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 852 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019 ...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Georgia... Middle Oconee River near Arcade affecting Barrow and Jackson Counties GAC013-157-211322- /O.CAN.KFFC.FL.W.0158.000000T0000Z-190421T1608Z/ /ACDG1.2.ER.190419T1646Z.190420T1345Z.190421T1231Z.NR/ 852 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019 The Flood Warning is cancelled for The Middle Oconee River near Arcade. * This takes effect immediately. * At 8 AM Sunday the stage was 15.9 feet and falling. * Flood stage is 16 feet. * The river will continue to fall.

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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM EVENT SUMMARY

The following is from a weather event summary4 from the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia for the thunderstorms and heavy rainfall on April 19th, 2019.

4 https://www.weather.gov/ffc/20190419_severe

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ASSESSING THE U.S. CLIMATE IN APRIL 2019

The following is from the news article “Assessing the U.S. Climate in April 2019”5 from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

5 https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/national-climate-201904

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METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS FOR FEBRUARY 5-6, 2020

The following is a surface analysis map of the contiguous United States at 7:00 a.m. EST on February 6th, 2020 that was prepared by the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), a division of the National Weather Service. This surface map indicated that a low pressure system was located over northern Alabama. A cold front extended to the south-southwest of this low into the Gulf of Mexico.

At the surface, air temperatures were in the low 60’s during the evening on February 6th, 2020 and dew points were near 60 degrees Fahrenheit. The combination of instability, a lifting mechanism and other favorable atmospheric conditions led to the formation of widespread precipitation and embedded thunderstorms.

Doppler radar images that were zoomed in over the incident location and other information indicated that a storm system approached from the west on February 5th, 2020 and caused on and off light showers, with some extended lulls, to occur from the early morning hours through the early evening on February 5th, 2020. As the storm system moved closer to the incident location, more widespread and intense precipitation began to affect the incident location. Periods of light to frequently moderate and occasionally heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms affected the incident location from approximately 8:35 p.m. on February 5th, 2020 through the late evening

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ROSWELL V. THE INSURANCE GROUP – WINDER, GEORGIA on February 6th, 2020. At the incident location, approximately 0.37” of rain accumulated on February 5th, 2020 and approximately 5.55” of rain accumulated on February 6th, 2020.

The storm system approached from the west but the precipitation ahead of this storm system moved toward the northeast.

At 8:12 a.m. on February 6th, 2020, the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia issued a “Flash Flood Warning” that was in effect through 2:15 p.m. on February 6th, 2020.

A “Tornado Warning” was issued at 8:16 a.m. and in effect through 8:45 a.m. on February 6th, 2020. This warning stated that Doppler radar indicated a tornado and hail less than 0.75” in diameter was possible. This warning also stated that Winder, Georgia would be impacted by this severe weather.

Another “Tornado Warning” was issued at 9:58 a.m. and in effect through 10:30 a.m. on February 6th, 2020. This warning stated that Doppler radar indicated a tornado and hail less than 0.75” in diameter was possible. This warning also stated that Winder, Georgia would be impacted by this severe weather. At 10:08 a.m. on February 6th, 2020, a “Severe Weather Statement” was issued to update the “Tornado Warning.” As a result, the warning was no longer in effect for the incident location.

According to the Storm Events Database from the National Centers for Environmental Information, a report of flash flooding was received by the National Weather Service at 10:47 a.m. on February 6th, 2020, which stated, “The Emergency Manager reported that Cedar Creek was out of its banks, flowing over Rockwell Church Road and Moon's Bridge Road. Radar estimates indicate that 2.5 to 5 inches occurred over the area, falling on already wet soils and resulting in flash flooding.”

At 2:09 p.m. on February 6th, 2020, the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia issued a “Flood Warning” that was in effect through 6:15 p.m. on February 6th, 2020.

Another “Flood Warning” was issued by the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia for the Middle Oconee River at Arcade. This warning was in effect from 4:40 p.m. on February 6th, 2020 through 8:24 a.m. on February 8th, 2020.

DIGITAL STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION (S.T.P.) ANALYSIS FOR FEBRUARY 5-6, 2020

In order to help determine the total rain accumulation for each 24-hour period and occasionally each hour, Digital Storm Total Precipitation (S.T.P.) Doppler Radar images were used (Figures 7-12). S.T.P. estimated rainfall values at both the incident location and at Winder 3.9 NNE, Georgia, as well as the actual measured rainfall totals from Winder 3.9, NNE, Georgia, were used to determine the total rain accumulation at the incident location itself. It should be noted that these S.T.P. images were cumulative at times over these 2 days, so the appropriate subtractions of the previous days’ rainfall amounts were applied. Thus, the rainfall amounts given below are for each 24-hour calendar day.

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Figure 7: At approximately 12:01 a.m. EST on February 5th, 2020, the Storm Total Precipitation (S.T.P) Doppler radar image above indicated that approximately 0.01” of rain previously accumulated at the incident location and that approximately 0.02” of rain previously accumulated at Winder 3.9 NNE, Georgia.

Figure 8: At approximately 11:20 a.m. EST on February 5th, 2020, the Storm Total Precipitation (S.T.P) Doppler radar image above indicated that approximately 0.06” of rain accumulated at the incident location and that approximately 0.06” of rain accumulated at Winder 3.9 NNE, Georgia.

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Figure 9: At approximately 11:44 a.m. EST on February 5th, 2020, the Storm Total Precipitation (S.T.P) Doppler radar image above indicated that a reset occurred. This image also indicated that 0.00” of rain accumulated at the incident location at Winder 3.9 NNE, Georgia since this reset occurred.

Figure 10: At approximately 11:48 p.m. EST on February 5th, 2020, the Storm Total Precipitation (S.T.P) Doppler radar image above indicated that approximately 0.28” of rain accumulated at the incident location and that approximately 0.28” of rain accumulated at Winder 3.9 NNE, Georgia.

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Figure 11: At approximately 12:01 a.m. EST on February 6th, 2020, the Storm Total Precipitation (S.T.P) Doppler radar image above indicated that approximately 0.28” of rain accumulated at the incident location and that approximately 0.30” of rain accumulated at Winder 3.9 NNE, Georgia.

Extrapolating between the 11:48 p.m. on February 5th, 2020 and 12:01 a.m. on February 6th, 2020 S.T.P. Doppler radar values indicates that after the reset of S.T.P. on February 5th, 2020 approximately 0.28” of precipitation accumulated at the incident location and approximately 0.30” of precipitation accumulated at Winder 3.9 NNE, Georgia through 12:00 a.m. on February 6th, 2020.

The 12:01 a.m. on February 5th, 2020 S.T.P. Doppler radar indicated values of 0.01” at the incident location and 0.02” at Winder 3.9 NNE, Georgia were determined to have occurred on February 4th, 2020.

Adding the S.T.P. Doppler radar extrapolated values at 12:00 a.m. on February 6th, 2020 to the S.T.P. Doppler radar values prior to the reset on February 5th, 2020, and subtracting out the 12:01 a.m. on February 5th, 2020 S.T.P. Doppler radar values, yields the total S.T.P. Doppler radar values for February 5th, 2020. Therefore, S.T.P. Doppler radar images indicated that approximately 0.33” of rain accumulated at the incident location and approximately 0.34” of rain accumulated at Winder 3.9 NNE, Georgia on February 5th, 2020.

The actual amount of rain observed at Winder 3.9 NNE, Georgia on February 5th, 2020 was 0.38”. Therefore, the S.T.P. Doppler Radar images were underestimating the rain accumulation at Winder 3.9 NNE, Georgia on February 5th, 2020 by approximately 0.04”. Thus, 0.04” was added to the S.T.P. value at the incident location on February 5th, 2020, so it was determined that approximately 0.37” of rain accumulated at the incident location on February 5th, 2020.

The same methodology was then used to calculate the total precipitation accumulation on February 6th, 2020.

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Figure 12: At approximately 11:58 p.m. EST on February 6th, 2020, the Storm Total Precipitation (S.T.P) Doppler radar image above indicated that approximately 3.42” of rain accumulated at the incident location and that approximately 3.45” of rain accumulated at Winder 3.9 NNE, Georgia.

After subtracting the S.T.P. indicated rain accumulation that was present at 12:00 a.m. on February 6th, 2020, since it would have accumulated on February 5th, 2020, S.T.P. Doppler radar images indicated that approximately 3.14” of rain accumulated at the incident location and approximately 3.15” of rain accumulated at Winder 3.9 NNE, Georgia on February 6th, 2020.

The actual amount of rain observed at Winder 3.9 NNE, Georgia on February 6th, 2020 was 5.56”. Therefore, the S.T.P. Doppler Radar images were underestimating the rain accumulation at Winder 3.9 NNE, Georgia on February 6th, 2020 by approximately 2.41”. Thus, 2.41” was added to the S.T.P. value at the incident location on February 6th, 2020, and it was determined that approximately 5.55” of rain accumulated at the incident location on February 6th, 2020.

NOAA ATLAS 14 POINT PRECIPITATION FREQUENCY ESTIMATES

The following table and graphs indicate the point precipitation frequency estimate from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) at the incident location. The latitude and longitude of the incident location were put into the NOAA Atlas 14 Point Precipitation Frequency Estimator to obtain these figures. The table and graphs indicate the average recurrence interval for precipitation given various durations from 5 minutes to 60 days.

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Figure 13: The table above is from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and shows the point precipitation frequency estimates at the incident location.

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Figure 14: The graphs above are from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and show the partial duration series (PDS)-based depth-duration-frequency curves at the incident location.

According to the point precipitation frequency estimate table for the incident location:

• The average recurrence interval for a 24-hour rainfall total of 5.55” at the incident location is between 10-25 years.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BULLETINS, WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES

The following are publicly issued warnings, severe weather statements, and flood statements from the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia which included the incident location and surrounding areas.

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At 8:12 a.m. on February 6th, 2020, the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia issued a “Flash Flood Warning” that was in effect for Barrow County in Georgia through 2:15 p.m. on February 6th, 2020:

Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 812 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020 The National Weather Service in Peachtree City has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Barrow County in north central Georgia... Northern Forsyth County in north central Georgia... Lumpkin County in north central Georgia... Banks County in northeastern Georgia... White County in northeastern Georgia... Dawson County in north central Georgia... Hall County in north central Georgia... Jackson County in northeastern Georgia... * Until 215 PM EST Thursday. * At 810 AM EST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Law enforcement and Emergency Managers are also reporting water levels rising to near bankfull and have reported or expect roads to close. Up to two inches of rain has already fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other drainage and low lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flooding include... Gainesville, Winder, Jefferson, Commerce, Cumming, Dahlonega, Cleveland, Dawsonville, Homer, Braselton, Auburn, Flowery Branch, Oakwood, Lula, Statham, Maysville, Arcade, Nicholson, Hoschton and Alto. Additional rainfall amounts of one to three inches are possible in the warned area. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you can do so safely. A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately. Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate precautions to protect life and property.

At 8:16 a.m. on February 6th, 2020, the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia issued a “Tornado Warning” that was in effect for Barrow County in Georgia through 8:45 a.m. on February 6th, 2020:

Tornado Warning National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 816 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020 The National Weather Service in Peachtree City has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Barrow County in north central Georgia... Central Gwinnett County in north central Georgia... South central Hall County in north central Georgia... Southwestern Jackson County in northeastern Georgia... * Until 845 AM EST. * At 816 AM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Mountain Park, or 9 miles southwest of Lawrenceville, moving northeast at 55 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without

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shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Lawrenceville, Winder, Jefferson, Snellville, Buford, Lilburn, Braselton, Auburn, Dacula, Grayson, Arcade, Hoschton, Pendergrass, Carl, Talmo, Tucker, Mountain Park, Fort Yargo State Park, Harbin and Chateau Elan. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. If you see wind damage...hail or flooding...wait until the storm has passed...and then call the National Weather Service toll free at 1 8 6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6 or tweet us your report at NWSATLANTA. && LAT...LON 3421 8360 3401 8357 3381 8412 3385 8416 3387 8420 3412 8394 TIME...MOT...LOC 1316Z 232DEG 47KT 3386 8411 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...<.75IN

At 8:28 a.m. on February 6th, 2020, the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia issued a “Severe Weather Statement” to update the “Tornado Warning” that was in effect for Barrow County in Georgia through 8:45 a.m. on February 6th, 2020:

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 828 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020 GAC013-135-139-157-061345- /O.CON.KFFC.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-200206T1345Z/ Barrow GA-Gwinnett GA-Hall GA-Jackson GA- 828 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 AM EST FOR BARROW... NORTHEASTERN GWINNETT...SOUTH CENTRAL HALL AND SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES... At 827 AM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Lawrenceville, moving northeast at 55 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Lawrenceville, Winder, Jefferson, Buford, Braselton, Auburn, Dacula, Grayson, Arcade, Hoschton, Pendergrass, Carl, Talmo, Fort Yargo State Park, County Line, Thompsons Mill, Harbin, Chateau Elan, Russell and Road Atlanta-Lanier Speedway. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3421 8360 3401 8357 3389 8390 3390 8402 3397 8406 3412 8394 TIME...MOT...LOC 1327Z 232DEG 47KT 3396 8396 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...<.75IN

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At 8:37 a.m. on February 6th, 2020, the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia issued a “Severe Weather Statement” to update the “Tornado Warning” that was in effect for Barrow County in Georgia through 8:45 a.m. on February 6th, 2020:

Barrow GA-Jackson GA- 837 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 AM EST FOR BARROW AND SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES... At 836 AM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Auburn, or 7 miles northwest of Winder, moving northeast at 55 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Winder, Jefferson, Braselton, Auburn, Arcade, Hoschton, Pendergrass, Carl, Talmo, Fort Yargo State Park, County Line, Thompsons Mill, Chateau Elan and Russell. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3421 8360 3401 8357 3393 8380 3395 8381 3397 8383 3398 8383 3400 8387 3413 8382 3416 8377 TIME...MOT...LOC 1336Z 232DEG 47KT 3404 8384 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...<.75IN

At 9:58 a.m. on February 6th, 2020, the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia issued a “Tornado Warning” that was in effect for Barrow County in Georgia through 10:30 a.m. on February 6th, 2020:

Tornado Warning National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 958 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020 The National Weather Service in Peachtree City has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Barrow County in north central Georgia... Northwestern Walton County in north central Georgia... Southeastern Jackson County in northeastern Georgia... * Until 1030 AM EST. * At 958 AM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Youth, or 9 miles west of Monroe, moving northeast at 65 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Winder, Jefferson, Loganville, Statham, Arcade, Nicholson, Bethlehem, Between, Athens-Clarke County, Bear Creek Reservoir, Fort Yargo State Park, Bold Springs, Windsor, Nicholasville, Campton, Russell, Gratis and Westgate Park. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

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If you see wind damage...hail or flooding...wait until the storm has passed...and then call the National Weather Service toll free at 1 8 6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6 or tweet us your report at NWSATLANTA. && LAT...LON 3411 8344 3402 8340 3399 8348 3400 8350 3398 8351 3391 8364 3390 8363 3376 8391 3380 8396 3393 8380 3394 8381 3416 8357 TIME...MOT...LOC 1458Z 230DEG 58KT 3381 8388 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...<.75IN

At 10:08 a.m. on February 6th, 2020, the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia issued a “Severe Weather Statement” to update the “Tornado Warning” that was in effect for Southeastern Barrow County in Georgia through 10:30 a.m. on February 6th, 2020. As a result of this update, the “Tornado Warning” was no longer in effect for the incident location:

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1008 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020 GAC013-157-297-061530- /O.CON.KFFC.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-200206T1530Z/ Barrow GA-Walton GA-Jackson GA- 1008 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 AM EST FOR SOUTHEASTERN BARROW...NORTH CENTRAL WALTON AND SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES... At 1008 AM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located just west of Nicholasville, or 5 miles northwest ofMonroe, moving northeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Winder, Jefferson, Statham, Arcade, Nicholson, Bethlehem, Athens-Clarke County, Bear Creek Reservoir, Nicholasville, Campton, Russell, Gratis, Fort Yargo State Park and Westgate Park. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3411 8344 3402 8340 3399 8348 3400 8350 3398 8351 3391 8364 3390 8363 3382 8378 3387 8383 3415 8353 TIME...MOT...LOC 1508Z 235DEG 45KT 3386 8377 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...<.75IN

At 11:51 a.m. on February 6th, 2020, the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia issued an official update for the “Flash Flood Warning” that was in effect for Barrow County in Georgia through 2:15 p.m. on February 6th, 2020:

Flash Flood Statement National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1151 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020 GAC011-013-085-117-139-157-187-311-061915- /O.CON.KFFC.FF.W.0010.000000T0000Z-200206T1915Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Barrow GA-Forsyth GA-Lumpkin GA-Banks GA-White GA-Dawson GA-Hall GA- Jackson GA- 1151 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

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...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM EST FOR BARROW...NORTHERN FORSYTH...LUMPKIN...BANKS...WHITE...DAWSON...HALL AND JACKSON COUNTIES... At 1150 AM EST, Emergency management reported that much of the heavy rain has ended and smaller creeks and streams are receding. Unfortunately, larger creeks and rivers are still rising and many roads remain closed. Up to three inches of rain has fallen and an additional inch of rain can be expected. HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by heavy rain. SOURCE...Emergency management. IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other drainage and low lying areas. Additional rainfall amounts of one inch are possible in the warned area. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become unstable and unsafe. && LAT...LON 3474 8362 3465 8366 3455 8362 3451 8367 3444 8363 3449 8352 3441 8338 3426 8334 3420 8340 3414 8336 3405 8338 3390 8375 3399 8385 3412 8382 3416 8407 3431 8426 3447 8426 3447 8432 3456 8435 3480 8368 FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED

At 2:09 p.m. on February 6th, 2020, the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia issued a “Flood Warning” that was in effect for Barrow County in Georgia through 6:15 p.m. on February 6th, 2020:

Flood Warning National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 209 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020 GAC011-013-059-085-117-139-157-187-195-219-221-297-062315- /O.NEW.KFFC.FA.W.0006.200206T1909Z-200206T2315Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Oconee GA-Barrow GA-Forsyth GA-Lumpkin GA-Banks GA-Clarke GA- Walton GA-Dawson GA-Hall GA-Jackson GA-Oglethorpe GA-Madison GA- 209 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020 The National Weather Service in Peachtree City has issued a * Flood Warning for... Oconee County in northeastern Georgia... Barrow County in north central Georgia... Northern Forsyth County in north central Georgia... Lumpkin County in north central Georgia... Banks County in northeastern Georgia... Clarke County in northeastern Georgia... Walton County in north central Georgia... Dawson County in north central Georgia... Hall County in north central Georgia... Jackson County in northeastern Georgia... Oglethorpe County in northeastern Georgia... Madison County in northeastern Georgia... * Until 615 PM EST. * At 207 PM EST, law enforcement and Emergency Management in several districts have reported flash flooding and road closures across the warned area. Three to four inches of rain have already fallen. River, creek, and small stream flooding will continue well after rain has ended. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you can do so safely. A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

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At 4:40 p.m. on February 6th, 2020, the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia issued a “Flood Warning” for the Middle Oconee River near Arcade, which was affecting Barrow County in Georgia, from the evening on February 6th, 2020 through the afternoon on February 7th, 2020:

Flood Warning National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 440 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020 ...The National Weather Service in Peachtree City has issued a Flood Warning for the following rivers in Georgia... Etowah River near Barrettsville affecting Dawson and Forsyth Counties Nancy Creek West Wesley Rd. near Atlanta affecting Fulton County Sweetwater Creek near Austell affecting Cobb and Douglas Counties Middle Oconee River near Arcade affecting Barrow and Jackson Counties Broad River near Carlton affecting Elbert...Madison and Oglethorpe Counties Oconee River near Penfield affecting Clarke...Greene and Oconee Counties Oconee River near Oconee affecting Johnson...Washington and Wilkinson Counties .Recent heavy rainfall has caused significant runoff into streams and rivers which will cause flooding in some areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... All persons with interests along the river should monitor the latest forecasts...and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect life and property. The latest stage data was furnished in cooperation with the United States Geological Survey. 440 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020 The National Weather Service in Peachtree City has issued a * Flood Warning for The Middle Oconee River near Arcade. * From this evening until Friday afternoon. * At 345 PM Thursday the stage was 14.9 fee, and rising. * Minor flooding is forecast to develop. * Flood stage is 16 feet. * The river is forecast to rise above flood stage this evening then continue rising, reaching near 17.9 feet after midnight Friday morning. The river is expected to fall below flood stage by Friday morning. * AT 15 feet, bankfull conditions are reached along the river upstream and downstream from the gage at Georgia Highway 82. At 16 feet, minor flooding begins in the woodlands, fields and pastures upstream and downstream from the gage at Georgia Highway 82. A few dirt access roads will be flooded and a residential yard just downstream will begin to flood. At 18 feet, minor flooding continues in the woodlands, fields and pasture upstream and downstream from the gage at Georgia Highway 82. A few dirt access roads and a residential yard just downstream will be flooded with up to two feet of water.

At 9:22 p.m. on February 6th, 2020, the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia issued a “Flood Statement,” which stated that the “Flood Warning” for the Middle Oconee River near Arcade continues through the evening on February 7th, 2020:

922 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020 The Flood Warning continues for The Middle Oconee River near Arcade. * Until Friday evening. * At 8 PM Thursday the stage was 19 feet, and rising. * Minor flooding is occurring is forecast to continue. * Flood stage is 16 feet. * The river will continue rising to near 20.4 feet early Friday morning. The river will fall below flood stage Friday afternoon.

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* At 20 feet...Minor flooding continues to expand further into the woodlands...fields and pasture upstream and downstream from the gage at Georgia Highway 82. A few dirt access roads and a residential yard just downstream will be flooded with up to 4 feet of water.

At 3:01 a.m. on February 7th, 2020, the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia issued a “Flood Statement,” which stated that the “Flood Warning” for the Middle Oconee River near Arcade continues through the late night on February 7th, 2020:

301 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 ...Observed and Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity... The Flood Warning continues for The Middle Oconee River near Arcade. * Until late tonight. * At 2 AM Friday the stage was 21.5 feet...and rising. * Moderate flooding is occurring and is forecast. * Flood stage is 16 feet. * The river will continue rising to near 21.8 feet by 8 AM this morning and fall below flood stage early this evening. * At 21 feet...Moderate flooding begins. Significant flooding occurs in the woodlands...fields and pasture upstream and downstream from the gage at Georgia Highway 82. A residential yard will be completely flooded with the water reaching the foundation of a house just downstream. The flood waters will be reaching Bismarck Circle Road upstream from the gage.

At 7:15 a.m. on February 7th, 2020, the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia issued a “Flood Statement,” which stated that the “Flood Warning” for the Middle Oconee River near Arcade continues through the late night on February 7th, 2020:

715 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 ...Flood Warning extended until late tonight... The Flood Warning continues for The Middle Oconee River near Arcade. * Until late tonight. * At 7 AM Friday the stage was 22.6 feet...and rising. * Moderate flooding is occurring and forecast. * Flood stage is 16 feet. * The river will rise to about 23.0 feet then fall below flood stage tonight. * At 23 feet...Significant flooding expands into the woodlands... fields and pasture upstream and downstream from the gage at Georgia Highway 82. A house just downstream will be surrounded with water and begin to flood. Flooding begins on low portions of Bismarck Circle Road upstream from the gage.

At 10:43 a.m. on February 7th, 2020, the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia issued a “Flood Statement,” which stated that the “Flood Warning” for the Middle Oconee River near Arcade continues through the morning on February 8th, 2020:

1043 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 ...Flood Warning extended until Saturday morning...The Flood Warning continues for The Middle Oconee River near Arcade. * Until Saturday morning. * At 10 AM Friday the stage was 22.8 feet...and steady. * Moderate flooding will continue. * Flood stage is 16 feet. * The river will fall to below flood stage by early Saturday. * At 23 feet...Significant flooding expands into the woodlands... fields and pasture upstream and downstream from the gage at Georgia Highway 82. A house just downstream will be surrounded with water and begin to flood. Flooding begins on low portions of Bismarck

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Circle Road upstream from the gage.

At 3:24 p.m. on February 7th, 2020, the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia issued a “Flood Statement,” which stated that the “Flood Warning” for the Middle Oconee River near Arcade continues through the morning on February 8th, 2020:

324 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 The Flood Warning continues for The Middle Oconee River near Arcade. * Until Saturday morning. * At 2 PM Friday the stage was 22.5 feet...and falling. * Moderate flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. * Flood stage is 16 feet. * The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by early Saturday. * At 23 feet...Significant flooding expands into the woodlands... fields and pasture upstream and downstream from the gage at Georgia Highway 82. A house just downstream will be surrounded with water and begin to flood. Flooding begins on low portions of Bismarck Circle Road upstream from the gage.

At 9:12 p.m. on February 7th, 2020, the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia issued a “Flood Statement,” which stated that the “Flood Warning” for the Middle Oconee River near Arcade continues through the morning on February 8th, 2020:

912 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 The Flood Warning continues for The Middle Oconee River near Arcade. * Until Saturday morning. * At 08PM Friday the stage was 20.8 feet...and falling. * Minor flooding is occurring and is forecast to continue. * Flood stage is 16 feet. * The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by Saturday morning. * At 21 feet...Moderate flooding begins. Significant flooding occurs in the woodlands...fields and pasture upstream and downstream from the gage at Georgia Highway 82. A residential yard will be completely flooded with the water reaching the foundation of a house just downstream. The flood waters will be reaching Bismarck Circle Road upstream from the gage.

At 8:24 a.m. on February 8th, 2020, the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia issued a “Flood Statement” to cancel the “Flood Warning” for the Middle Oconee River near Arcade:

824 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2020 The Flood Warning is cancelled for The Middle Oconee River near Arcade. * This takes effect immediately. * At 7 AM Saturday the stage was 15.5 feet...and falling. * Flood stage is 16 feet. * The river will continue to fall.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOCAL STORM REPORTS (LSR’S) AND STORM EVENTS DATABASE

After determining if Local Storm Reports were received by the National Weather Service and if edited storm reports were included in the Storm Events Database publications from the National Centers for Environmental Information on February 6th, 2020, I quality-controlled and plotted

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ROSWELL V. THE INSURANCE GROUP – WINDER, GEORGIA these reports using the program Google Earth. The following map depicts the report that was received due to flooding that occurred at the incident location. The text bulletin is listed out after the storm reports map.

At 10:56 a.m. on February 6th, 2020, the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia issued the following “Preliminary Local Storm Report” which included Barrow County in Georgia:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 1056 AM EST THU FEB 06 2020 ..TIME...... EVENT...... CITY LOCATION...... LAT.LON... ..DATE...... MAG...... COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE...... REMARKS.. 1047 AM FLASH FLOOD 4 NNE WINDER 34.04N 83.70W 02/06/2020 BARROW GA EMERGENCY MNGR CREEK IS OVERFLOWING THE ROAD AT ROCKWELL CHURCH ROAD AND MOON'S BRIDGE ROAD

STORM EVENTS DATABASE

The following entry is from the Storm Events Database from the National Centers for Environmental Information on February 6th, 2020:

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ASSESSING THE U.S. CLIMATE IN FEBRUARY 2020

The following is from the news article “Assessing the U.S. Climate in February 2020”6 from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

6 https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/national-climate-202002

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CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, it is my opinion with a reasonable degree of meteorological certainty based on sound, scientific principles, practices, and accepted methodologies that:

APRIL 19, 2019

• On April 14th, 2019, just 5 days prior to April 19th, 2019, weather stations surrounding the incident location indicated 1.09”-1.41” of rain accumulated. This heavy rainfall event caused the ground to become wet and soils to become saturated. • A large area of mostly continuous light to frequently moderate and heavy rain, with embedded training thunderstorms, affected the incident location from approximately 4:35 a.m. through 11:49 a.m. on April 19th, 2019. During this time, approximately 4.02” of rain accumulated at the incident location. • The total amount of precipitation that accumulated at the incident location on April 19th, 2019 was approximately 4.07”. • The greatest 6-hour rainfall total occurred between approximately 5:05 a.m. and 11:05 a.m. on April 19th, 2019 when approximately 3.96” of rain accumulated. • The average recurrence interval for a 24-hour rainfall total of 4.07” at the incident location is between 2-5 years. • The average recurrence interval for a 6-hour rainfall total of 3.96” at the incident location is between 10-25 years. • A “Flash Flood Warning” was in effect for the incident location from 7:34 a.m. through 1:30 p.m. on April 19th, 2019, which stated, “At 734 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Up to two inches of rain have already fallen. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly.” • A “Flood Warning” was issued by the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia for the Middle Oconee River at Arcade. This warning was in effect from 11:53 a.m. on April 19th, 2019 through 8:52 a.m. on April 21st, 2019. • A “Flood Warning” was in effect from 1:33 p.m. through 7:30 p.m. on April 19th, 2019, which stated, “At 132 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated that rainfall accumulations up to 3 inches have occurred resulting in flooding. Despite much of the heavy rain shifting east, elevated water levels will continue. Roads have been washed out in some instances and creeks are out of their beds.”

FEBRUARY 5-6, 2020

• Periods of light to frequently moderate and occasionally heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms affected the incident location from approximately 8:35 p.m. on February 5th, 2020 through the late evening on February 6th, 2020. • At the incident location approximately 0.37” of rain accumulated on February 5th, 2020 and approximately 5.55” of rain accumulated on February 6th, 2020. • The average recurrence interval for a 24-hour rainfall total of 5.55” at the incident location is between 10-25 years. • At 8:12 a.m. on February 6th, 2020, the National Weather Service in Peachtree City,

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Georgia issued a “Flash Flood Warning” that was in effect through 2:15 p.m. on February 6th, 2020. • A report of flash flooding was received by the National Weather Service at 10:47 a.m. on February 6th, 2020, which stated, “The Emergency Manager reported that Cedar Creek was out of its banks, flowing over Rockwell Church Road and Moon's Bridge Road. Radar estimates indicate that 2.5 to 5 inches occurred over the area, falling on already wet soils and resulting in flash flooding.” • At 2:09 p.m. on February 6th, 2020, the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia issued a “Flood Warning” that was in effect through 6:15 p.m. on February 6th, 2020. • A “Flood Warning” was issued by the National Weather Service in Peachtree City, Georgia for the Middle Oconee River at Arcade. This warning was in effect from 4:40 p.m. on February 6th, 2020 through 8:24 a.m. on February 8th, 2020.

CERTIFICATION

I certify that the above information contained in this report is true and accurate to the best of my ability and that all of my opinions, findings, estimations and interpolations expressed in this report were made with accuracy as a professional meteorologist within a reasonable degree of meteorological certainty.

By: ______Certified Consulting Meteorologist

Certified Consulting Meteorologist Awarded by the American Meteorological Society.

______

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