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NOAA National Weather Service Flood Forecast Services

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NOAA National Weather Service Flood Forecast Services NOAA National Weather Service Flood Forecast Services Jonathan Brazzell Service Hydrologist National Weather Service Forecast Office Lake Charles Louisiana J Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service - AHPS This is where all current operational riverine forecast services are located. ● Observations and deterministic forecasts ● Some probabilistic forecast information is available at various locations with more to be added as time allows. ● Graphical Products ● Static Flood Inundation Mapping slowly spinning down in an effort to put more resources to Dynamic Flood Inundation Maps! http://water.weather.gov/ AHPS Basic Services ● Dynamic Web Mapping Service ○ Shows Flood Risk Categories Based on Observations or Forecast ○ Deterministic Forecast Hydrograph ○ River Impacts http://water.weather.gov/ Forecast location Observations with at least a 5 day forecast. Forecast period is longer for larger river systems. Deterministic forecast based on 24 -72 hour forecast rainfall depending on confidence. Impacts Probabilistic guidance over the next 90 days based on current conditions and historical simulations. We will continue to increase the number of sites with time. Flood Categories Below Flood Stage - The river is at or below flood stage. Action Stage - The river is still below flood stage or at bankfull, but little if any impact. This stage requires that forecast be issued as a heads up for flood only forecast points. Minor - Minimal or no property damage, but possibly some public threat. Moderate - Some inundation of structures and roads near the stream – some evacuations of people and property possible. Major - Extensive inundation of structures and roads. Significant evacuations of people and property. Rainfall that goes into the models Rainfall is constantly QC’d by looking at radar and rain gauge observations on an hourly basis. Short Term Probabilistic Forecast based on Rainfall Only ● Rainfall forecast is the largest error to flood forecasting. ● To account for this we do provide ensemble rainfall forecasts that are put into the hydrologic models to see the potential response based on different scenarios. From 5-95% exceedance. ● Does not account for uncertainty in hydrology. http://preview.weather.gov/edd/ Worst Case Scenario Status Display Individual Forecast Location Gridded Hydrologic Modeling on National Scale ● Increases the number of forecast locations ● Path towards dynamic flood inundation mapping on a national level instead of static maps at a few locations. ● Calibration will take some time. http://water.noaa.gov/about/nwm Gridded Hydrologic Modeling on National Scale Current Configuration Expiremental Output During Harvey Can query the NWM Must have the 5 character NWSLID or USGS gauge number. Link Here New Flash Flood forecasting on a National Scale ● Flash Flood can happen at shorter time steps than the National water model is currently run. ● Model runs every 10 minutes. Flash is a suite of products produced by the model. That includes Annual Rainfall Exceedance probabilities as well as several ways to view streamflow as a result of ongoing rainfall. ● Has already paid off in the way flash flood warnings are issued. Will only get better as experience is gained in its use. Flash.ou.edu or flash.ou.edu/new Building a Weather-Ready Nation 24 Building a Weather-Ready Nation 25 Precipitation Frequency Data https://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/index.html Increasing Design Storms? Daily Coastal Guidance Probabilistic Guidance based on ensemble forcing. .
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