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Evaluating the Political Crisis in Venezuela

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Evaluating the Political Crisis in Venezuela Dubai International Academy Model United Nations 2020| 12th Annual Session Forum: Fourth General Assembly (Special Political and Decolonization) Issue: Evaluating the Political Crisis in Venezuela Student Officer: Aryan Totawat Position: President Chair Introduction On January 23rd 2019, at a protest held in Caracas against President Nicolas Maduro, Juan Guaido declared himself interim President of Venezuela. Within weeks, Guaido gained the support and recognition of numerous nations opposed to the Maduro regime, including the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Canada, and Colombia, among many others. On the other hand, Russia and China reaffirmed their support for the Maduro regime, which labelled Guaido’s actions as “illegal” and as constituting a “coup”. While it immediately polarized the global community and propelled Venezuelan domestic affairs into the international spotlight, Guaido’s move to assume the presidency was far from a knee jerk action; it was merely another development in Venezuelan politics, an inevitable climax brought about by the actions of the Maduro regime as well as of his dissenters over the past several years. Since succeeding the infamous Hugo Chavez to the Venezuelan presidency in 2013, Maduro has frequently and repeatedly endeavoured to undermine democratic institutions in Venezuelan politics while expanding his own executive authority. These efforts became especially pronounced after the Democratic Union Roundtable (DUR), a political faction consisting of those opposed to the Maduro regime, won a majority in the National Assembly in the 2015 Venezuelan legislative elections. Additionally, the Maduro regime has been accused of human rights abuses and authoritarianism for its oftentimes violent, tyrannical crackdowns on protests and political dissent. All of these factors culminated in the National Assembly (dominated by the democratic opposition since the aforementioned 2015 legislative elections) challenging Maduro’s legitimacy and installing Juan Guaido, a member of DUR and the head of the National Assembly, as interim president. The legal impasse created by this move has remained yet unresolved, as both Maduro and Guaido continue to lay claim to the presidency while regarding the other as illegitimate. This political standoff is not the only crisis facing Venezuela: the nation’s economy has also tanked over the past few years. Under both Chavez and Maduro, the state began to play an increasingly interventionist role in economic affairs, but its corrupt and inefficient management of the economy has resulted in a severe economic malaise characterized by low economic output, rampant rates of unemployment and Dubai International Academy Model United Nations 2020| 12th Annual Session inflation, and shortages of critical commodities (including food, medical supplies, and energy). As it turns out, the deadlock between Guaido and Maduro for the presidency has created further socioeconomic problems for Venezuela; while Guaido has solicited aid from his backers in the international community (namely the United States), the Maduro regime has alleged that these nations are using aid as an excuse to intervene unethically in Venezuelan domestic affairs and strengthen the opposition led by Juan Guaido. Maduro’s security forces have clashed violently with Guaido supporters attempting to bring foreign aid into the country, further depriving Venezuelans of basic necessities that are in severe shortage due to poor economic management by the government. Thus, it is clear that, the political crisis in Venezuela also has major humanitarian fallout; ultimately, as a first step in tackling the ‘bigger picture’ socioeconomic issues facing Venezuela’s suffering citizens, it is vital for the international community to resolve this political crisis as expediently as possible. Definition of Key Terms Bolivarian Revolution The political revolution initiated by Hugo Chavez following his election to the Venezuelan presidency in 1998 has been termed the ‘Bolivarian Revolution,’ since many of Chavez’s revolutionary reforms and political ideologies (such as nationalism and state control of the economy) were inspired by Simon Bolivar, a 19th century Venezuelan revolutionary leader who fought Spanish colonialism in Latin America. Chavez’s political revolution has been continued by his successor, Nicolas Maduro, the current controversial President of Venezuela. Authoritarianism A political system that prioritizes government control over society and enforcement of the government’s orders, at the expense of democracy and individual rights and freedoms. Bolivarian Venezuela has been deemed by many of its critics to be an authoritarian state, due to the suppression of political opposition, crackdown on protest activity, and disregard for human rights, among other reasons. Article 233 of the Venezuelan Constitution This article states that “when the president-elect is absolutely absent before taking office, a new election shall take place (…) And while the president is elected and takes office, the interim president shall be the president of the National Assembly.” In January 2019, the opposition-led National Assembly invoked this article in order to declare Juan Guaido as interim President of Venezuela. They contend that invoking this article is justified since Maduro’s Dubai International Academy Model United Nations 2020| 12th Annual Session swearing-in ceremony took place illegally in the Supreme Court, instead of in the National Assembly, as it is legally required to (see ‘Alleged Coup’ in the Key Issues section below). Article 333 of the Venezuelan Constitution This article says that the constitution “shall not lose validity if it ceases to be observed by an act of force or its appeal”, and “every citizen will have the duty to collaborate for the re-establishment of its effective validity”. This article allows the National Assembly to disregard the changes made to the constitution by the Constituent Assembly, a pro-government legislature established by President Maduro in 2017 to rival the opposition-led National Assembly (see ‘Creeping Authoritarianism’ in the Key Issues section below), and invoke Article 233 to declare Guaido as the interim president of the country. Coup d’état A coup d’état is an illegal seizure of power from the existing government. After Juan Guaido, the President of the National Assembly, declared the Maduro regime illegitimate and proclaimed himself President of Venezuela, the government of President Maduro accused him of staging a coup against Maduro. Sanctions Economic and financial sanctions entail limiting business activity with a particular nation. These are typically imposed with the aim of depriving the sanctioned nation of finances or economic resources, as a form of punishment or pressure. In recent years, the Maduro regime has been the subject of a multitude of sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union, who have accused the Venezuelan government under President Maduro of abusing human rights and suppressing democratic institutions in the country. By using sanctions to deprive the Maduro regime, the U.S. and EU have sought to force the Maduro regime to mellow its authoritarian policies or step down from power. Key Issues State Mismanagement of Economy Both Hugo Chavez and Nicolas Maduro have been consistently elected on heavily socialist policy platforms, which emphasized government intervention and direct management of the economy. During Chavez’s 14-year-tenure as President of Venezuela, over 1,000 companies in various economic sectors were nationalized; this put the bonus of producing various commodities on the government. However, due to Dubai International Academy Model United Nations 2020| 12th Annual Session bureaucratic inefficiency and mismanagement, domestic production fell drastically. Besides nationalizing entire industries, the Venezuelan government has also taken control of hundreds of thousands of acres of land. The issue of inefficiency applies to the management of this public land as well, and has resulted in diminished food production and hence food shortages. The most notable example of economic mismanagement in Venezuela can be seen in the country’s oil industry, which is by far the most critical sector of the Venezuelan economy; according to OPEC (The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries), “Venezuela’s oil revenues account for about 99 percent of export earnings.” When Hugo Chavez was elected to the Venezuelan presidency in 1998, the country produced 3.5 million barrels of oil per day. Chavez replaced the leadership of PDVSA, the state-owned oil company, with his political acquaintances and other such personnel loyal to his regime. These new personnel were relatively inexperienced and lacked the expertise needed to handle operations in the Venezuelan oil industry. Additionally, in 2007, Chavez began renegotiating agreements with private multinational corporations, attempting to impose greater taxes on these companies while giving them less control over oil industry projects. Numerous companies, such as ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, refused to accept these one-sided terms demanded by Chavez, and so their assets were seized illegally by the Venezuelan government. This further drove away expertise and foreign capital investment desperately needed in the sophisticated Venezuelan oil industry. Production of oil in the country has, unsurprisingly, nosedived; according to OPEC, Venezuelan crude oil production is currently about 1.5 million
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