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For Personal Use Only Use Personal For The Leading Edge In this edition of the Leading Edge we consider opportunities to invest in healthcare, one of the few growth sectors in the Australian share market QUARTERLY REPORT | December 2013 For personal use only Watermark Funds Management Level 5, 139 Macquarie Street NSW Sydney 2000 TEL (02) 9252 0225 FAX (02) 9252 1220 [email protected] www.wfunds.com.au This report has been prepared by Watermark Funds Management Pty Limited. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. It has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. It is published solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained For personal use only herein nor is it intended to be a complete statement or summary of the securities, markets or developments referred to in the report. The report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice. The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results. Watermark Funds Management Pty Limited is under no obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Estimates of future performance are based on assumptions that may not be realised. WATERMARK FUNDS MANANGEMENT QUARTERLY REPORT | December 2013 The strong advance in shares surprised us given a weak fundamental backdrop as softer growth trends persisted across the OECD. In Fig 1 you can see how share markets have moved higher throughout the year even as economists downgraded global growth. The same trends were clearly evident here in Australia, as shares rose while profits drifted sideways for industrial companies. The gains were broad based Justin Braitling Portfolio Manager with the banks and domestic cyclicals leading the way (Fig 2). While defensive shares have done well since the depths of the financial crisis, they underperformed The 2013 Year in Review from mid-year onward as investors began switching Australian shares delivered a solid 20% return in into sectors more exposed to a strengthening global 2013, with 15% coming from capital appreciation economy. and the balance from dividends. This was in spite of weaker performance from the mining sector which AUSTRALIAN SHARE MARKET - FIG 2 fell slightly as commodity prices eased. Industrial SECTOR PERFORMANCE 2013 shares more than made up the difference delivering a 27% return, not far behind the 32% gain in US shares which led global markets higher. The MSCI World index increased 24% for the year, dragged down by weakness in emerging markets. 2013 STOCK PRICES VS ECONOMIC FIG 1 GROWTH EXPECTATIONS Source: Bloomberg Data In Fig 3 below you can see how most of the positive return over two years has come from a re-rating of shares relative to underlying earnings rather than from actual earnings growth itself. As expected, profit Source: Bloomberg Data growth has been disappointing. PROFIT GROWTH HAS BEEN DISAPPOINTING FIG 3 For personal use only Source: Macquarie Securities 1 The Outlook for the Year Ahead This has left our share market a lot more expensive Bond markets may hold the key again in the year today relative to underlying earnings. ahead. You can quickly gauge the precarious state of US Treasuries from Fig 5. They are at these very This re-rating of shares along with most other asset low levels because of the intervention of central classes is a result of easy monetary policies and an banks in pushing bond prices higher (yields lower), abatement of tail risks from the financial crisis. inflating asset values everywhere, including the share market. Market volatility measures such as the ’VIX Index’ suggest risk levels are back to where they were prior to Central banks terrified of the corrosive effects of debt the crisis. As many of the debt imbalances that initially deflation are trying to rekindle inflation with mixed led to the financial crisis are still in place, caution should success. If inflationary pressures are to re-emerge at be exercised when volatility is as low as this. a time when market forces reassert themselves we will surely see renewed volatility in this pivotal asset US S&P 500 VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX) FIG 4 class. Financial markets are particularly vulnerable to any re-emergence of inflation. Ominously, the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) at the end of last year came in well ahead of expectations, and is now running at the upper end of the RBA’s target range at 2.7% removing any prospect of further interest rate cuts here. The impact of central bank policy on our own bond market can be seen in fig#, with a meaningful Source: Bloomberg steepening in the yield curve from May last year. The price of longer dated maturities fell sharply and Stronger US data brought expectations of a ‘tapering’ yields on Australian 10-year bonds spiked by 30% as of the Federal Reserve’s bond purchases which the US Federal Reserve talked of ‘tapering’ its asset eventually commenced in December. This was an purchases. important inflection point for markets generally, marking an end to a 30-year bull market in bonds, If you were wondering why your investments in and shift of capital into growth assets like equities. A defensive securities like Telstra, AGL and Woolworths tightening in US liquidity was also a negative signal for stopped dead in their tracks midway through last emerging markets, particularly those dependent on year, it is because these mature high-yielding US capital inflows and for the Australian dollar which securities are seen as bond proxies and bond prices fell by 14% over the year. started falling. US TREASURIES HAVE NEVER BEEN SO EXPENSIVE FIG 5 For personal use only Source: Bloomberg 2 WATERMARK FUNDS MANANGEMENT QUARTERLY REPORT | December 2013 YIELD CURVE - AUSTRALIAN FIG 6 Closer to home, the other key risk to monitor in the COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES year ahead will be the impact of credit tightening in China, as the central government tries to temper excess credit creation and an overdependence on investment. Funding costs have risen recently (Fig 7) as the government has restricted access to shadow banking products and we are yet to see the full impact on stressed sectors of the Chinese economy. While growth has slowed in China, finishing the year at 7.75%, we expect to see a further slowing of activity in the year ahead. As we enter 2014, there is also plenty of good news for investors as growth is picking up in developed countries. Fig 8 shows how leading indicators across Source: Bloomberg the OECD are improving. INTERBANK FUNDING HAS TIGHTENED CONSIDERABLY FIG 7 Source: Bloomberg LEADING INDICATORS SUGGEST OECD GROWTH IS PICKING UP FIG 8 For personal use only Source: GaveKal 3 Outgoing Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke Over the past 30 years there have been numerous p/e made the following comments on the US economy: expansion cycles like the one we are currently seeing, however almost all of them are associated with falling “The combination of financial healing, greater balance bond yields and lower inflation, with these trends now in the housing market, less fiscal restraint, and, of reversing it is difficult to see the US share market re- course, continued monetary policy accommodation rate much further. bodes well for US economic growth in coming quarters.” The current exuberance can be seen clearly in investor sentiment (Fig 10), and the ratio of market bulls/bears While economists are busy upgrading their growth has not been this high for 20 years. While sentiment forecasts for 2014, the shift has been well and truly measures do not always signal turning points in captured in equity prices as shares advanced through markets, they do indictate shares are over-extended the closing months of 2013. Valuations now look full short term. by historic standards. In Fig 9 you can see how the US market has seen a 50% p/e re-rating since the end of As central banks withdraw support, we are shifting 2011. While the bulls are talking of a further re-rating from a liquidity driven market that has fully re- of shares as money flows out of over-valued bond rated to a growth-driven market dependent on profit markets, caution should be exercised as US shares growth to move higher. This was evident in the weaker have rarely been rated more highly. response to softer profits results for US companies US SHARE MARKET RE-RATING HAS NOT BEEN DRIVEN BY PROFIT GROWTH FIG 9 Source: Yardeni Research INVESTOR SENTIMENT AT RECORD HIGHS FIG 10 For personal use only Source: Yardeni Research 4 WATERMARK FUNDS MANANGEMENT QUARTERLY REPORT | December 2013 US SHARES LOOK LIKE REACHING FOR A MARKET TOP FIG 11 Source: John Hussman, www.hussmanfunds.com in January. The uptick in economic activity will need We are moving into a riskier period for shares to translate into stronger profit momentum if the generally. Recognising this uncertainty, we will be market is to move much higher from here as the year maintaining our high cash weighting with a significant progresses. portion of the fund’s capital retained in cash and the balance invested in Australian shares. In prior reflation cycles, asset values have overreached as accomodative policy has been maintained for too long.
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