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Legacies of Totalitarianism a Symposium B5 V2 hřbet 20,04 mm TERRORISM IN EU • SMALL STATES • POST-ISIS IRAQ • POST-ISIS TERRORISM IN EU • SMALL STATES Download the issue Facebook 1 • 2019 Legacies of Totalitarianism A Symposium & More CEJISS CEJISS is a non-profit open-access scholarly journal. Published by 2019 Metropolitan University Prague Press ISSN 1802-548X 66 1 9 771802 548007 current events at cejiss.org © CEJISS 2019 cejiss acts as a forum for advanced exploration of international and security studies. It is the mission of cejiss to provide its readers with valuable resources regarding the current state of international and European relations and security. To that end, cejiss pledges to publish articles of only the highest calibre and make them freely available to scholars and interested members of the public in both printed and electronic forms. editor in chief Mitchell Belfer executive editor and administrator Jakub Marek Communication Officer Christos Tzotzis associate editors Imad El-Anis, Jean Crombois, Bryan Groves, Jason Whiteley, Muhammad Atif Khan book review editor Zuzana Buroňová web and support Metropolitan University Prague language editing Sheldon Kim editorial board Javaid Rehman, Ibrahim A. El-Hussari, Efraim Inbar, Tanya Narozhna, Michael Romancov, Marat Terterov, Yulia Zabyelina, Natalia Piskunova, Gary M. Kelly, Ladislav Cabada, Harald Haelterman, Nik Hynek, Petr Just, Karel B. Müller, Suresh Nanwani, Benjamin Tallis, Caroline Varin, Tomáš Pezl, Milada Polišenská, Victor Shadurski, Salvador Santino F. Regilme Jr., Mils Hills, Marek Neuman, Fikret Čaušević, Francesco Giumelli, Adriel Kasonta, Takashi Hosoda, Prem Mahadevan, Jack Sharples, Michal Kolmaš, Vügar İmanbeyli, Ostap Kushnir, Khalifa A. Alfadhel, Joost Jongerden, James Warhola, Mohsin Hashim, Alireza Salehi Nejad, Pelin Ayan Musil, George Hays, Jan Prouza, Hana Horáková, Nsemba Edward Lenshie, Cinzia Bianco, Ilya Levine, Blendi Lami, Petra Roter, Firat Yaldiz, Adam Reichardt, A. F. M. Maniruzzaman, B. Geluvaraj, Robert Ramcharan, Anzhelika Solovyeva, Gerald Power, Victor Adetula, David Darchiashvili, Oliver Boyd-Barrett Guest reviewer Vesna Babic-Hodovic, Cristian Nitoiu, Martina Varkočková, Eyal Ben Ari, Chris Hughes Central European Journal of International and Security Studies C/o Metropolitan University Prague Dubečská 900/10, 100 31, Prague, Czech Republic Tel.: +420 724 587 171, Fax: +420 274 817 190, [email protected] cejiss is published by Metropolitan University Prague Press Printed in the eu issn: 1802-548x e-issn: 1805-482x cejiss is not responsible for the contents of any external hyperlinks. The views expressed in this issue are solely those views of the respective authors and do not represent those of cejiss and its boards. DIPLOMACY in action Contents Volume 13, Issue 1, March 2019 Editor‘s 7 The Issues that Shape Middle Eastern Politics analysis Mitchell Belfer Research 12 Ukrainian State-Building Redux articles Triangular Role Performance Under Kuchma Vladislav Strnad, Nik Hynek 37 Messianic Narrations in Contemporary Russian Statecraft and Foreign Policy Ostap Kushnir 61 Japan’s Security and the South Sudan Engagement Internal and External Constraints on Japanese Military Rise Reconsidered Michal Kolmaš 86 The Role of Non-governmental Organisations in Development Tourism Sector A Comparative Study Between Bulgaria and Egypt Petya Ivanova, Mahmoud Khalifa 100 Small States in Great Power Politics Understanding the “Buffer Effect” Ksenia Efremova 122 Post-ISIS Iraq and the Shia Armed Groups Kardo Rached, Ahmed Omar Bali 138 The Legal Mechanisms of Ensuring Regional Cooperation in Combatting Crime Within the Framework of the Council of Europe Experience of Ukraine Andrii Voitsikhovskyi, Oleksandr Bakumov, Olena Ustymenko, Mykola Marchuk 161 Terrorism Situation and Its Challenges to European Union A Longitudinal Statistical Analysis Zeren Langjia, Jian Shi Author 198 Author Meets Critics Symposium Meets Critics Discussion on Legacies of Totalitarianism Symposium Krzysztof Brzechczyn 199 A Transformation of the Privileges of the Authorities into Property Rights or a Transformation of the Types of Class Rule? Krzysztof Brzechczyn 206 Limits of Democratic Consolidation Subversion of Reason as a Post-totalitarian Syndrome Dragoş Petrescu 211 The Hereditary Diseases of Post-totalitarianism Michał Kwiecień 215 Simulated Change Totalitarianism and What Comes Next Cristina Petrescu 220 Legacies, Zombies and the Need of Long-Term Basis for Short-Term Foresight Grzegorz Greg Lewicki 226 Dissidents and Nomads in [Not Only] Post-totalitarian Countries Why Are There so Many Problems if Things Are Going so Well? Rafał Paweł Wierzchosławski 233 Why Legacies Matter Reply to readings of Legacies Aviezer Tucker 242 The Third World War: Daesh, Iraq and the Management of Book Barbarism reviews Elaaf Hadi 248 Climate Governance in the Developing World Lapo Degl’Innocenti 252 Fact and Fiction in Global Energy Policy: Fifteen Contentious Questions Kacper Szulecki 256 Gender and Peacebuilding Tabe George Eyong The Issues that Shape Middle Eastern Politics Editor’s Analysis With Mitchell Belfer and Isabella Nardone of Formiche Three main issues have come to dominate global headlines in the first quarter of 2019: the Iran-US relationship, Israel and its parliamenta- ry elections and the ever-changing dynamics in Libya. The outcome of each of these will impact regional and trans regional relations and understanding aspects of them is essential. In the following analytical snapshot — a Q & A — information of these three situations is teased out via conversation. Nardone (Formiche) — What could happen internationally following Israel’s elections (re: in case of a change in the executive)? Belfer — Given that Netanyahu’s most formidable opponent is Benny Gantz, Israeli and indeed regional politics are set to change consider- ably. First, if Netanyahu is successful and retains his position as Prime Minister, his coalition would have taken a further shift to the right bringing in known Jewish extremists and ideologues. This will frustrate budding relations with the Arab World, including in the Gulf, and make peace with the Palestinians much more difficult--if not impossible. Also, it will, de facto, recognise the controversial annexation of Go- lan. An empowered Netanyahu -- given his recent brushes with the law -- will also be a more bullish Netanyahu. Alternatively, a Benny Gantz leadership will likely reach out to a wider consensus in Israel to rekin- dle proper negotiations with the Palestinians and to better exploit the newfound influence Israel wields in the region now that Iran is being checked by the Arab Gulf states, Russia and the US. Gantz is a secu- rity heavyweight and will not be soft on security provisions. But, as 7 a soldier, he knows the consequences of reckless politics and will be more guarded. He may be the right type of leader to encourage a more robust engagement with the Arab World. CEJISS Nardone (Formiche) — What do you think about the situation in Libya? 1/2019 Is it possible that Haftar’s advance has been facilitated by external sup- port? What are your expectation for the future? Belfer — Libya was in a state of suspended animation and Haftar is rapidly moving to break the 8 year impasse and consolidate a power-po- sition for his Misurata militiamen. The momentum is needed. While Italy had previously sought a more inclusive solution, others (re: Qatar, Turkey) attempted to infuse national politics with an Islamist flavour based around the Muslim Brotherhood. This has failed and Haftar, al- though an unapologetic military man is not an Islamist. It is about time for Libya to stabilise and hopefully this latests bout will produce the ingredients to do so. Nardone (Formiche) — Is the withdrawal of US troops from Tripoli a sign of weakness and acquiescence to Haftar’s plans? Is there the possi- bility that Washington transforms Libya into a ‘new Syria’ (re: compar- ing US-Haftar relations with Russia-Assad relations)? Belfer — I think that the US withdraw is short sighted and reflects the lack of US strategic awareness. I do not think that a ‘new Syria’ is on the horizon. But then again, Middle Eastern politics is unpredictable. Nardone (Formiche) — Last year Donald Trump reassured Italian PM Giuseppe Conte about Italy’s leading role regarding Libyan dossier. Did Italy lose the opportunity to manage this role? Belfer — I would not say that Italy lost the opportunity, but rather that the Libyan’s took it over themselves. Since the Palermo talks, the mo- mentum shifted back to the Libyan militias themselves and the Europe- an role has been eclipsed ever since. Nardone (Formiche) — Italy’s Interior Minister Matteo Salvini has asked the EU to reject any Turkish attempt to join the Union. Since Turkey stands with Serraj, shouldn’t Italy revise its position on this issue? 8 Belfer — Turkey is a ‘wild card’ in the wider region but its ambitions are rather clear -- to establish a stronger presence by using Qatari mon- ey and Muslim Brotherhood organisations. Italy and Turkey may have agreed on Serraj’s leadership, but they did not agree on why. For Italy he represented a voice of reason and for Turkey a voice of Turkish power Editor‘s projection. Salvini is right to reject Turkey’s EU membership bid... at Analysis least until it changes its behaviour to better reflect European interests and values. And, of course, it ceases its occupation of Cyprus ‒ an EU member state. Nardone (Formiche) —The US has listed Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as terrorists. What is the
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