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Polls, Elections and Australian Political History Rodney Tiffen Looks at the Pitfalls of Poll-Watching and the Lessons of Postwar History

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Polls, Elections and Australian Political History Rodney Tiffen Looks at the Pitfalls of Poll-Watching and the Lessons of Postwar History Inside Story | inside.org.au | August 2010 Polls, elections and Australian political history Rodney Tiffen looks at the pitfalls of poll-watching and the lessons of postwar history here have been so many records set recently in only two federal governments defeated after only one Australian politics that the politicians should be term? Or else, will she follow Paul Keating as the only Ttested for steroids. We began the current leader at either state or federal level – at least in the last electoral cycle with the personal defeat of a prime half century – to win an election after deposing their minister for only the second time in 110 years, with predecessor? John Howard following the 1929 precedent of Stanley For Julia Gillard defeat will mean an even more Bruce and being swept from parliament. Then, for the odious entry into the record books. She is already first time, the Liberals staged two leadership coups Australia’s first female prime minister, our first Welsh- within three years. Finally – and again for the first time born prime minister, and the first PM to take office ever – a successful leadership coup was launched with a de facto partner. But if the current polls are an against a first-term prime minister, the leader who had accurate indicator she is at grave risk of becoming achieved the equal-third-biggest winning swing since Australia’s second-shortest-ever reigning prime the second world war. minister. This raises an obvious question. Will this month’s Australia has had three “caretaker” prime ministers – election follow the precedent of the 1931 election, with deputies who took over when the incumbent died in Julia Gillard joining James Scullin as leader of one of office but were always known to be temporary. The three are Earle Page (1939, for twenty days after the Above: Julia Gillard and treasurer Wayne Swan board death of Joe Lyons); Franke Forde (1945, for eight days the media bus in Sydney on 3 August, heading for a after the death of John Curtin); John McEwen day of campaigning on the central coast. (1967–68, for twenty-three days after the death of AAP Image/Alan Porritt Harold Holt). Of the twenty-four real prime ministers, the shortest- the two major parties has been lowest have occurred at serving was Arthur Fadden, who took over as head of the most recent elections. Although there were earlier government after the collapse of the Menzies coalition occasions when “Others” have attracted a substantial government in 1941. His stormy rule lasted for “forty vote (notably in the 1958 and 1977 elections after the days and forty nights,” in the words of one writer, formation of, respectively, the Democratic Labor Party before two independents in the House voted him out of and the Australian Democrats as nationally organised office. John Curtin’s Labor government took over and parties), it now looks to have become a continuing prosecuted the war effort much more effectively. feature of the Australian landscape. When the DLP was If Julia Gillard loses the election (and resigns the next the largest minor party its preferences went day) she will have been prime minister for fifty-nine overwhelmingly to the Coalition; preferences from the days. She would displace the current second-place Democrats and especially the Greens have tended to go holder, John Christian Watson, who was prime minister mainly to Labor. for a total of 112 days in 1904 (and was Australia’s only Minor parties and independents are treated more Chilean-born Australian prime minister). Despite the kindly by Australia’s system of preferential voting than brevity of his tenure, Watson’s leadership had several by the first-past-the-post systems in Britain and the achievements. In particular, his was the first Labor United States. Voters can express both a preference for a government anywhere in the world. It was always a minority party with their first vote and a second minority government, and Watson governed during a preference for a major party that allows them to affect period when three parties of broadly equal strength the result if their preferred candidate has no hope. Table vied for office and short terms in government were the 3 orders the election results according to the winning norm. Between 1901 and 1910, Australia experienced margin in terms of the two-party-preferred vote. This seven prime ministerships. Much longer periods of measure, originally devised by Malcolm Mackerras, is incumbency are now the norm, making a Gillard Labor designed to take account of the two key facts about loss even more extraordinary. Australian elections: that (a) it is a preferential voting Given these dramatic developments and possibilities, system in which the distribution of second-preference it is little wonder that the media have been speculating votes from minor parties may be crucial; and (b) the so breathlessly about the election outcome. Each poll basic question in deciding who forms government is between now and the election will be greeted with which side – Labor or the Liberal–National Party exaggerated claims for its importance. To put this all in Coalition – has the majority. perspective, it’s useful to look back at the results from Table 3 reveals that although changes of government Australian federal elections since the second world war are infrequent, Australian elections tend to be close, and and examine the key issues in public opinion polling that a relatively small swing in the vote can change the and predicting elections. outcome. In thirteen of the twenty-five elections, the Since the war, there have been twenty-five elections two-party-preferred vote was 52:48 or closer, and in for the House of Representatives. As Table 1 shows, of seven of the eleven elections since 1980 it has been this those elections, the Coalition has won sixteen and close. The largest winning margin was Harold Holt’s Labor nine – the discrepancy largely reflecting the victory over Arthur Calwell in the 1966 “Vietnam” Liberals’ nine successive victories from 1949, giving election, and the second-biggest was Malcolm Fraser’s them twenty-three years continuously in office. Since victory following the dismissal of the Whitlam 1972, Labor has won eight elections and the Coalition government in 1975. seven. Table 1 also shows that the dominant pattern in On five occasions, the winning side actually received Australian elections is for incumbents to be re-elected. just under 50 per cent of the two-party preferred vote, On only six of twenty-five occasions has an election and if the distribution of votes between seats had been produced a change of government. different they could easily have lost. Each of these All governments have been formed by one of the two elections (1954, 1961, 1969, 1990, and 1998) was a case major parties, and their combined vote on all but one of an incumbent government being less preferred than occasion has been more than 80 per cent of the total. its opponent but managing to win because it retained But, as Table 2 shows, the number of people voting for its most vulnerable seats. Interestingly, the government minor parties and independents has been increasing. with the smallest ever winning share of the two-party Seven of the eight occasions when the combined vote of preferred vote was John Howard’s in 1998. 2 Table 1. Outcomes of Australian House of Representatives elections 1946–2007 Year Winning Incumbent Winning Losing Coalition Labor primary party result leader leader vote % vote % 1946 Labor GOVT Chifley Menzies 43.7 49.7 1949 Coalition OPPN Menzies Chifley 50.3 46.0 1951 Coalition GOVT Menzies Chifley 50.3 47.7 1954 Coalition GOVT Menzies Evatt 47.1 50.0 1955 Coalition GOVT Menzies Evatt 47.6 44.6 1958 Coalition GOVT Menzies Evatt 46.5 42.8 1961 Coalition GOVT Menzies Calwell 42.1 47.9 1963 Coalition GOVT Menzies Calwell 46.0 45.5 1966 Coalition GOVT Holt Calwell 50.0 40.0 1969 Coalition GOVT Gorton Whitlam 43.4 47.0 1972 Labor OPPN Whitlam McMahon 41.5 49.8 1974 Labor GOVT Whitlam Snedden 45.7 49.3 1975 Coalition OPPN Fraser Whitlam 53.1 42.8 1977 Coalition GOVT Fraser Whitlam 48.1 39.6 1980 Coalition GOVT Fraser Hayden 46.3 45.1 1983 Labor OPPN Hawke Fraser 43.6 49.5 1984 Labor GOVT Hawke Peacock 45.0 47.5 1987 Labor GOVT Hawke Howard 46.1 45.8 1990 Labor GOVT Hawke Peacock 43.4 39.4 1993 Labor GOVT Keating Hewson 44.3 44.9 1996 Coalition OPPN Howard Keating 46.9 38.8 1998 Coalition GOVT Howard Beazley 39.2 40.1 2001 Coalition GOVT Howard Beazley 42.7 37.8 2004 Coalition GOVT Howard Latham 46.7 37.6 2007 Labor OPPN Rudd Howard 42.1 43.3 Table 2. Percentage of votes for minor Table 4 orders these elections in terms of the net parties and independents at House of swing measured in two-party preferred terms. Two Representatives elections 1946–2007 general tendencies stand out. One is that in three- quarters of the elections, or nineteen of twenty-five, the Year Total Year Total swing was against the incumbent. On only seven other % other % occasions did the government improve its position in 1998 20.7 1980 8.6 an election – the Menzies government in 1955 and 1958 2001 19.5 1963 8.5 following the Labor split (in 1958 its share of the vote 1990 17.2 1987 8.1 fell very slightly, but it gained seats); in 1963 and 1966, 2004 15.7 1955 7.8 as Labor under Arthur Calwell fell further behind after 2007 14.6 1984 7.4 almost winning the 1961 “credit squeeze” election; Paul 1996 14.3 1983 6.9 Keating’s 1993 “Fightback!” election; and the 2001 and 1977 12.3 1946 6.6 2004 elections under John Howard.
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