Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, Florida

COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, Florida

U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Office of Policy Development and Research As of November 1, 2014

Summary

Economy Rental Market Housing Market Area The economy of the Pensacola HMA Rental housing market conditions in has been recovering since 2010, after the HMA are soft, but improving, with recording significant job losses from an estimated overall rental vacancy rate 2007 through 2009. During the 12 of 11.4 percent, down from 15.9 percent months ending October 2014, nonfarm in 2010. Although the overall rental Alabama Escambia payrolls increased by 1,700, or 1.1 per- Florida market is slightly soft, the apartment cent, to 161,700 jobs. During the 3-year market is balanced and tightening. Escambia forecast period, nonfarm payrolls are Santa Rosa During the 3-year forecast period, de- expected to increase by an average of mand is estimated for 930 new market-

Okaloosa 2,425, or 1.5 percent, annually. Navy Baldwin rate rental units in the HMA. The 430 Federal Credit Union is expected to market-rate units currently under continue expanding its operations in construction will meet a portion of this the HMA, contributing to gains in demand (Table 1). nonfarm payrolls. Gulf of Mexico Table 1. Housing Demand in the The Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent Sales Market Pensacola HMA* During Housing Market Area (hereafter, the Sales housing market conditions in the the Forecast Period Pensacola HMA) is coterminous with HMA are soft, but improving. The es- Pensacola HMA* the Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL timated sales vacancy rate is currently Sales Rental Metropolitan Statistical Area and 2.4 percent, down from 3.0 percent in Units Units comprises Escambia and Santa Rosa April 2010. During the 3-year forecast Total demand 5,100 930 Counties in the westernmost end of the period, demand is expected for 5,100 Under construction 450 430 Florida panhandle. The principal city new homes (Table 1). The 450 homes of Pensacola is in Escambia County, *Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent HMA. currently under construction and a Notes: Total demand represents estimated approximately 60 miles east of Mobile, portion of the estimated 14,400 other production necessary to achieve a balanced Alabama, and is the site of Naval Air market at the end of the forecast period. vacant units in the HMA that may re- Units under construction as of November 1, Station Pensacola (NAS Pensacola), enter the sales market will satisfy some 2014. A portion of the estimated 14,400 home of the U.S. Navy’s Blue Angels. other vacant units in the HMA will likely of the forecast demand. satisfy some of the forecast demand. The forecast period is November 1, 2014, to November 1, 2017. Source: Estimates by analyst Market Details Economic Conditions...... 2 Population and Households...... 5 Housing Market Trends...... 6 Data Profile...... 11 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 2 Source: U.S.Bureau ofLabor Statistics Note: Basedon12-monthaveragesthrough October 2014. *Pensacola-Ferry Pass-BrentHMA. Figure 1. Sources: Greater PensacolaChamber;Naval Air StationPensacola. survey data. uniformed militarypersonnel,who aregenerallynotincludedinnonfarmpayroll Notes: Excludeslocalschooldistricts. DataforNaval Air StationPensacolainclude *Pensacola-Ferry Pass-BrentHMA. Table 2. West Corporation Ascend PerformanceMaterials West FloridaHospital Gulf Power Navy FederalCredit Union Sacred HeartHealthSystem Baptist HealthCare Naval AirStationPensacola Santa RosaMedicalCenter Medical CenterClinic Name ofEmployer Leisure &hospitality13.3% Economic Conditions Education &healthservices16.4%

Major Employersinthe

by Sector Current NonfarmPayroll Jobsinthe Other services3.4% Government 17.2% Government Education &healthservices Education &healthservices Professional &businessservices Manufacturing Education &healthservices Transportation &utilities Financial activities Education &healthservices Education &healthservices Government Nonfarm Payroll Sector Pensacola employer is Baptist Health Care, with with Care, employer isBaptistHealth economic stability. Thesecondlargest (NAS Pensacola) andisasourceof local economy estimatedat$1.2billion had an annual economic impact on the roll figures. In2013,NAS Pensacola paynel andnotincludedinnonfarm person whichareuniformed most of 2), HMA, with23,400workers (Table Pensacola isthelargest employer inthe ending October2014(Figure1).NAS in theHMA,during12months payrolls allnonfarm 17.2 percentof tor, or whichcomprised27,900jobs, T Mining, logging,&construction5.9% Professional &businessservices13.7% HMA* Manufacturing 3.9% heavily onthegovernment sec he Pensacola HMAdepends Pensacola Financial activities6.2% Wholesale &retail trade16.5% Information 1.5% Transportation &utilities2.5% HMA,* Employees Number of 23,400 1,300 1,775 3,125 3,475 4,500

500 500 800 800

- - -

led bygainsinthemining, logging 4,475 jobs, or2.8percent,annually, payrolls increasedbyanaverage of 2003 through2006,whennonfarm expansion was considerablefrom during2001.Economic that occurred thenationaleconomicrecession of or 0.4percent,partlyasalagged result jobsdecreasedby600jobs,nonfarm by 1,700,or1.1percent.In2002, jobsintheHMAincreased nonfarm national economictrends. In2001, alongside theHMAfluctuated of Throughout the2000s, theeconomy with 3,475workers. ployer HealthSystem, isSacredHeart 4,500 workers. Thethirdlargest em economy begantorecover in2010. Employment andWages). TheHMA tion sector(Quarterly Censusof the mining, logging, andconstruc thenetlossesin for 85percentof subsector accounted The construction 1,600 jobs, or11.8percent,annually. job contraction,losinganaverage of sectorled logging, andconstruction or 3.2percent,annually. Themining, 5,275jobs,HMA lostanaverage of 2007. From 2007through2009,the recession thatbeganinDecember andthenational real estateindustry inthe thedownturn a resultof theHMAcontractedas omy of From 2007through2009,theecon- LaborStatistics). of Employment andWages,of Bureau sector(Quarterly Census construction net gainsinthemining, loggingand the which accountedfor89percentof subsector,percent, intheconstruction 960jobs, or9.3 age annual increaseof estate boominFloridaledtoanaver resultingfromthereal construction or 8.5percent,annually. Increased 1,075jobs,creased byanaverage of sector,and construction whichin- -

- - Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 3 Source: U.S.Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Current isbasedon12-month averages through October 2014. *Pensacola-Ferry Pass-BrentHMA. Figure 2. Economic Conditions – 40 – 30 SectorGrowthinthe – 20 –

Continued – 10 Pensacola dential construction activity.dential construction Despite annually, weakness inresi becauseof 380jobs,an average of other sectorduringtheperiod,losing sectorlostmorejobsthanany struction ism. Themining, logging, and annually, growth intour becauseof 780jobs,an average or4.1percent, of second fastestgrowing sector, gaining leisure andhospitalitysectorwas the 930 jobs, or4.7percent,annually. The tor, whichincreasedbyanaverage of sec professional andbusinessservices 160,400 jobs. Gainswere ledbythe 1,400 jobs, or0.9percent,annually, to payrolls increasedbyanaverage of From 20 percent, to161,700jobs. Theleisure payrolls increasingby1,700,or1.1 at amoderatepace, withnonfarm 2014, theeconomy continued togrow During the12monthsendingOctober date.2000 tothecurrent payrollnonfarm sector growth from recorded in2006.Figure2illustrates 170,600jobs the prerecessionpeakof payrollsnonfarm remain lessthan overall gainsfrom2010through2013, 0 10 through 2013, nonfarm 10 through2013,nonfarm 10 HMA , * 20 PercentageChange,2000toCurrent or 3.7percent, 30 con - - 40 - - which causedadeclineintourism. which beganonApril20,2010,and the Deepwater Horizonoilspill, theeffectsof $785,300 becauseof tax revenues inAugust 2010totaled West Florida).Bycomparison,bed 2013 (HaasCenter, University of percent from$1,510,000inAugust the HMAtotaled$1,789,000,up18 bed tax(aonhotels)revenues in August 2014,thelatestdataavailable, beachesintheHMA.In appeal of improving nationaleconomy andthe tourism, whichwas causedbythe growth in to 21,500jobsbecauseof increasing by900,or4.4percent, and hospitalitysectorledjobgrowth, jobs annually since2003,theyear it 280 union hasaddedanaverage of Nine MileRoad campus. Thecredit a$1billionexpansion atits of as part ployer intheHMA, added530jobs largest em Credit Union,thefourth (Table 3).In2014,Navy Federal by 500jobs, or5.2percent,to10,100 during thepast12months, increasing at afasterratethananyothersector The financialactivities sectorgrew 50 Total nonfarmpayroll jobs Service-providing sectors Goods-producing sectors Education &healthservices Professional &businessservices Financial activities Transportation &utilities Manufacturing Government Other services Leisure &hospitality Wholesale &retail trade Mining, logging,&construction Information - Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 4 Source: U.S.Bureau ofLaborStatistics *Pensacola-Ferry Pass-BrentHMA. Figure 3. Table 3. Source: U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics averages throughOctober2013and2014. Notes: Numbersmaynotaddtototalsbecauseofrounding.Basedon12-month *Pensacola-Ferry Pass-BrentHMA. Total nonfarmpayroll jobs

Labor force and Service-providing sectors Goods-producing sectors Information Transportation &utilities Wholesale &retail trade Manufacturing Mining, logging,&construction Government Other services Leisure &hospitality Education &healthservices Professional &businessservices Financial activities resident employment Economic Conditions 160,000 170,000 180,000 190,000 200,000 210,000 220,000 230,000 12-Month Average NonfarmPayroll Jobsinthe HMA,* ployment Rateinthe Trends inLaborForce,ResidentEmployment,andUnem Labor force

2000 bySector

2001

2002

2003

Continued 2004 Resident employment

2005 Pensacola 145,100 160,000 October 28,100 20,600 26,700 21,800 26,300 14,900 2013

2006 12 MonthsEnding 5,600 9,600 2,400 4,000 5,800 9,100 2014, theunemployment rateinthe During the12monthsendingOctober a declineinrevenues. 2013becauseof of in thesecondhalf approximately 90employees laid off HealthSystem because SacredHeart lost 100jobs, or0.4percent,partly sector education andhealthservices the mostrecent12-monthperiod, the financialactivities sector. During contributor tothegrowth recordedin 60 employees, andhasbeenamajor began operationsintheHMAwith 2007

2008 HMA,* 146,600 161,700 2009 October 27,900 21,500 26,600 22,100 10,100 26,600 15,000 2014 5,500 2,400 4,100 5,900 9,100

2010 2000Through2013

2011 Unemployment rate Absolute Change 2012 Pensacola 1,500 1,700 – 200 – 100 – 100 900 300 500 100 300 100 100 2013 0 0 Change Percent 10.0 12.0 – 0.7 – 1.8 – 0.4 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0

4.4 1.4 5.2 0.0 2.5 1.1 1.0 1.7 0.0 0.7 1.1 - Unemployment rate continue expanding. Nonfarm payrolls continue expanding. payrolls Nonfarm HMAeconomythe isexpected to During the3-year forecastperiod, in theHMAfrom2000through2013. ployment, andtheunemployment rate trends inthelaborforce, residentem- percent, respectively. Figure3shows rates intheHMAaveraged 8.4and7.0 2012 and2013,theunemployment 7.9 percentayear earlier. During 2014 averaged 6.6percent,down from during the12monthsendingOctober son, thenationalunemployment rate cent recordedin2010.Bycompari 10.0per much lessthanthepeakof from 7.4percentayear earlier, andis HMA averaged 6.2percent,down tion dateisuncertain. create 300jobs, althoughthecomple Thefacilityisexpected to Airport. facility atPensacola International maintenance, repair, announced planstoestablishan aircraft Mobile AerospaceEngineering, Inc., in 5years. 2014,VT InSeptember the timereinvestment iscomplete jobswillbecreatedby any permanent employs 400workers. Itisunclearif Containerboard Mill,whichcurrently million reinvestment atitsPensacola forest products, announceda$90 paper, packaging, and distributor of Paper Company, aproducerand during thenext 3years. International thesejobswillbecreated many of how2026, althoughitisuncertain time theexpansion iscompletein add anadditional5,000jobsbythe Union. Thecreditunionplansto expansion atNavy Federal Credit continued forecast periodbecauseof the 1.6 percentinthethirdyear of from 1.4percentinthefirstyear to increase duringtheforecastperiod, Job growth isexpected togradually 2,425,or1.5percent,annually.of are expected toincreasebyanaverage and overhaul - - - Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 5 estimates byanalyst Sources: 2000and 2010—2000Censusand2010Census; currentandforecast— 2017. Notes: ThecurrentdateisNovember 1,2014.TheforecastdateisNovember *Pensacola-Ferry Pass-BrentHMA. Figure 5. estimates byanalyst Sources: 2000and2010—2000Census2010Census;currentforecast— 2017. Notes: ThecurrentdateisNovember1,2014.forecast *Pensacola-Ferry Pass-BrentHMA. Figure 4.

Average annual change Average annual change Population andHouseholds 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 4,000 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 500 0 0

HMA,* Components ofPopulationChangeinthe Population andHouseholdGrowth inthe HMA,* 2000 to2010 2000 to2010 2000toForecast 2000 toForecast Net naturalchange Population April 1, 2010, with net in-migration ac- April 1,2010,withnetin-migration 5,175,or1.1percent,annually since of anaverageflecting annual growth rate HMA was estimatedat472,700,re- A increase. Astheeconomy contracted thenetpopulation or 65percentof averagedmigration 3,225annually, During thesameperiod,netin- July 1,2000, andJuly 1,2006). as of based oncensuspopulationestimates or 1.2percent,annually (inter-censal in theHMAaveraged 5,000people, Fromgrowth 2000to2006,population theincrease. counting for70percentof 2010 tocurrent 2010 tocurrent population of thePensacola population of November 1,2014,the s of Households Net migration Pensacola Current toforecast Current toforecast Pensacola

Rosa County, 1.9percent whichgrew was disproportionatelystronginSanta From 2009to2013,populationgrowth populationgrowth. for 69percentof aged 3,500peopleannually, accounting cent, annually; aver netin-migration increased to5,100people, or1.1per populationgrowth improve, therateof hous From 2009to2013,as economic and averaging 1,250peopleannually. contributed tonetout-migration, subsector losses intheconstruction 2006 to2009.Duringthisperiod,job to 910,or0.2percent,annually from populationgrowth slowed the rateof and theforeclosurecrisismounted, households. The holds; theremaining 61,450arerenter households,current areowner house estimated 66.4percent,or121,200 of Pensacola inSantaRosa County. An thecityof Pace, of whichisnortheast been particularly stronginthecityof Population andhouseholdgr 1,825,or1.1percent. annual rateof households increasedatanaverage tion growth was lower, thenumber of son, from2000to2010,whenpopula or 1.2percent,since2010.Bycompari 2,075households, annual increase of anaveragein theHMA,reflecting An estimated182,650householdsare forecast date. population change from2000tothe the components of shows 5 ure November 1, 2017 (Figure4).Fig- HMA isexpected toreach486,200by the Thepopulationof in-migration. theincreaseresultingfromnet of 4,500, or0.9percent,with71percent to grow atanaverage annual rateof recovers, thepopulationisexpected to improve andtherealestatemarket County. Astheeconomy continues 0.7percentannually forEscambia of annually comparedwithagrowth rate ing market conditions began to ing marketconditionsbeganto homeownership rate owth has

- - - - - Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 6 analyst Sources: 2000and2010—2000Census2010Census;current—estimatesby Note: ThecurrentdateisNovember1,2014. *Pensacola-Ferry Pass-BrentHMA. Figure 6. Population andHouseholds Housing Market TrendsHousing 100,000 120,000 140,000 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 0

HMA,* Number ofHouseholdsbyTenureinthe

2000 toCurrent 2000

Continued Renter through 2012, the number of new through 2012,thenumber of 11,250 ayear, respectively. From 2008 homes soldaveraged 2,375and new andexisting when thenumber of recorded from2005through2007, home salesremainsbelow thelevels recent increases, level thecurrent of previous 12-monthperiod.Despite 2014, a10-percentincreasefromthe during the12monthsendingOctober and condominiums)totaled8,125 single-family homes, townhomes, existing homesales(including ber of Hanley Wood Company).Thenum 12-month period(Metrostudy, A new homesalesduringtheprevious a 3-percentincreasecomparedwith and condominiums)totaled1,050, single-family homes, townhomes, ber 2014,new homesales(including During the12monthsendingOcto- down from3.0percentinApril2010. vacancy rateiscurrently 2.4percent, improving. Theestimated sales in thePensacola HMAaresoftbut Sales housingmarketconditions Sales Market 2010 Owner Pensacola Current

graphic datafortheHMA. graphic provides additionaldemo- this report ber 1,2017.Table DP-1attheendof mately 188,600householdsbyNovem- or 1.1percent,annually, toapproxi holds isexpected toincreaseby1,975, house- forecast period,thenumber of date.and thecurrent Duringthe households bytenure for2000,2010, Figure 6shows thedistributionof lending standards.and strictermortgage market conditions, limitedjobgrowth, weak realestate 2010 becauseof has declinedfrom68.7percentin before beginning torecover. Sales 2013 the 12months ending February $185,900during an annual low of Sales pricesfornew homesreached 12 monthsendingNovember 2006. $278,000, respectively, setduringthe $206,500and prerecession peaksof homes remainsatmuch lessthanthe average pricefornew andexisting the periodincreased37percent.The to have lower prices—sold during Estate Owned)homes—whichtend REO(Real because thenumber of existing homesdecreased price of cent, to$165,400.Theaverage sales existing homesdecreased1per of $215,500, andtheaverage salesprice new homesincreased6percent,to ber 2014,theaverage salespriceof During the12monthsendingOcto- lendingstandards.mortgage theperiodandtighter early of part tively, joblossesduringthe becauseof 990and5,425,respec an average of and existing homessolddeclinedto 3-year - - -

Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 7 Sales Market Market TrendsHousing Continued Financial Services, Inc.). Duringthe in October2013(BlackKnight (REO) status, down from8.7percent transitioned intorealestateowned delinquent, were inforeclosure, or loansweremortgage 90ormoredays October2014,7.0percentof As of 2006(CoreLogic,February Inc.). 196.0recordedin than thepeakof 2013, butitremains27percentless 143.4, up4percentfromOctober Index forsingle-family homeswas 2014, theCoreLogicHousePrice beginning torecover. InOctober 12 monthsendingApril2011before $154,400duringthe annual low of prices forexisting homesreachedan the effects of thenationalrecession the effectsof theFloridahousingboom and end of 520 a year, respectively, the because of condominiums soldaveraged 50and new andexisting when thenumber of significantly from2008through2012, a year, respectively. Salesdeclined condominiums averaged 310and790 new andexisting 2007, salesof By comparison,from2005through rostudy, AHanleyWood Company). the previous 12-monthperiod(Met- increase comparedwithsalesduring sales totaled780homes, a3-percent same period,existing condominium the previous 12months. Duringthe ums sold,down from10soldduring 2014, fewer than5new condomini During the12monthsendingOctober which beganinJuly 2013. Foreclosure BacklogReduction Plan, Florida’s theimplementationof of the foreclosurepipelineasaresult isgradually clearingthrough erties distressed homeloansandREOprop October 2013,becausethebacklogof percent duringthe12monthsending existing homesales, upfrom22 of REO salesaccountedfor27percent 12 monthsendingOctober2014, - - and $298,500,respectively, becauseof condominiums soldaveraged $443,500 the average price for new andexisting cantly from2008through2012,when respectively. Pricesdeclinedsignifi ums averaged $531,600and$440,500, prices fornew andexisting condomini parison, from2005through2007, since recordsbeganin2005.Bycom- remain nearthelowest level recorded $237,900,and cent, toanaverage of dominium salespricesdeclined3per- During thesameperiod,existing con- low toprovide arepresentative price. new condominiumsaleswere too the 12monthsendingOctober2014, that beganinDecember2007.During from averagedpermitted 3,000annually single-family homes the number of recorded since2000.Bycomparison, activity remains nearthelowest levels level data).Thecurrent liminary of decreased 16percent,to1,550(pre- single-family homespermitted of ending October2014,thenumber work.repair Duringthe12months 141 homeshave for beenpermitted thedamagedon repairing homes; the recovery have efforts focused Pensacola, destroyed inthecityof Because few homeswere completely damage inEscambiaCounty. caused anestimated$21millionof homes, destroyed 13homes, and which damaged anestimated3,200 byflooding, the HMAwas struck new homesales. OnApril29,2014, growth in theslowing rateof of cause months endingOctober2014,be- in thePensacola HMAduringthe12 family decreased homespermitted, single- as measuredbythenumber of Single-family homebuilding activity, began inDecember2007. thenationalrecessionthat effects of thehousingboomand the endof 2000 through2006, aperiod

Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 8 Sources: U.S.CensusBureau,BuildingPermitsSurvey;estimatesbyanalyst Notes: Includestownhomes.CurrentincludesdatathroughOctober2014. *Pensacola-Ferry Pass-BrentHMA. Figure 7. Table 4. Source: Estimatesbyanalyst The forecastperiodisNovember1,2014,to2017. 14,400 othervacantunitsintheHMA willlikelysatisfysomeoftheforecastdemand. Notes: The450homescurrentlyunderconstructionandaportion oftheestimated *Pensacola-Ferry Pass-BrentHMA. 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 500 Sales Market Market TrendsHousing 0

300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 Estimated DemandforNewMarket-RateSalesHousingin the

Single-Family HomesPermittedinthe 2000 toCurrent 95,000 From 2000 Price Range($) Pensacola 2001 Continued

2002

and higher 2003 149,999 299,999 249,999 199,999 HMA* 99,999 To 2004

During theForecast Period 2005

2006 County). Astheeconomy contracted and 58multifamily units(SantaRosa units, including364mobilehomes damaged or In SantaRosa County, thehurricane major damage (EscambiaCounty). and an additionalsuffered units 1,641 Ivan destroyed 3,547housingunits, 2004. InEscambiaCounty, Hurricane theHMAinSeptember which struck by Hurricaneinflicted damage Ivan, that includedrebuildingfromthe

2007 Demand Units of 1,375 1,325

560 660 970 200 2008

2009 destroyed 4,751housing Pensacola

2010

2011 Percent of Total 11.0 13.0 19.0 27.0 26.0

2012 HMA,* 4.0

2013

2014 Plantation isa200-homesubdivision subdivisions intheHMA.Ashley ment isunderway atseveral new recorded earlierinthe2000s, develop at low levels comparedwiththose remains Although homeconstruction at approximatelyhomes start $95,000. for new three-bedroom,single-family 1,475 annually (Figure7).Salesprices mitted increasedtoanaverage of single-family homesper- number of the economy begantorecover, the 2009. From 2010through2013,as 1,275 annually from2007through declinedtoanaveragepermitted of single-family homes the number of and theforeclosurecrisismounted, $199,999 (Table 4). be forhomespricedfrom$100,000to thedemandisexpected to percent of the final2years. Approximately 53 year to1,875homesannually during period, from1,350homesinthefirst to increaseduringthe3-year forecast forecast demand.Demandisexpected the sales marketwillsatisfysomeof in theHMAthatmay reenterthe units the estimated14,400othervacant under of andaportion construction The450homescurrently 1). (Table is expected for5,100new homes During thenext 3years, demand during thenext 2years. percent areexpected tobecomplete been completed;theremaining40 thehomeshave mately 60percentof range ashigh$400,000.Approxi bedroom, two-bathroom homesand at$220,000fornew three- Prices start currently underdevelopment inPace.

- Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 9 Sources: 2000and 2010—2000Censusand2010Census; current—estimatesbyanalyst Note: Thecurrent dateisNovember1,2014. *Pensacola-Ferry Pass-BrentHMA. Figure 8. 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 Rental Market Market TrendsHousing

Current Rental Vacancy Ratesinthe 2000 12.8 In October2014,themedianrentfor from anestimated42percentin2000. units aresingle-family homes, up rental An estimated49percentof completionssince2010. apartment coupled withalimitednumber of resulting frommoderatejobgrowth apartments of significant absorption of because 15.9 percentin2010,partly is 11.4percent(Figure8),down from overall rentalvacancy rateintheHMA market isbalanced.Theestimated but improving, althoughtheapartment tions inthePensacola HMAaresoft Overall rentalhousingmarketcondi- Rental Market (ALN Apartment Data,Inc.).(ALN Apartment down from7.6percentayear ago 5.0percent, with avacancy rateof October2014, but tighteningasof marketwasThe apartment balanced nearly unchanged from2000. complexes,traditional apartment rental unitsintheHMAare Only anestimated25percentof high as$3,300(analyst estimates). at$600andrange as for rentstart Rents forcondominiumunitsoffered (Yahoo!-Zillow Real EstateNetwork). and upfrom$850inOctober2012 8 percentfrom$950inOctober2013 a single-family homewas $1,025,up Pensacola 2010 15.9 HMA,* 2000to Current 11.4

rents. TheALN-definedEastPensa- relatively high 7.2 percent,becauseof market area,withavacancy rateof est intheALN-definedBeachfront affordable rents. Conditionsaresoft relatively 1.7percent,becauseof of Pensacola, withavacancy rate city of the of Milton marketarea,northeast tightest intheALN-definedPace- vary somewhat bysubmarketandare Data,Inc.).Apartment Conditions during theprevious 12months (ALN 490 unitscomparedwith590 months endingOctober2014totaled duringthe12 absorption Apartment rents are highest in the ALN-defined rents arehighest intheALN-defined after 1999,respectively. Effective built from1980to1999,and built and $900forunitsbuiltbefore 1980, Effective rentsaveraged $680,$780, down from$6perunitayear ago. minimal, averaging $2perunit,and (ALN Systems).Concessionsare three-bedroom units, respectively $800, and$970,forone-,two-, and bedroomswere $660, by number of average effective rents apartment 4 percentfrom$750ayear ago. The averaged $780inOctober2014,up Effective rentsforallapartments and 27percentwas builtafter1999. percent was builtfrom1980to1999, inventory was builtbefore1980,38 theapartment mately 35per-centof and 4.6percent,respectively. Approxi from 1980through1999averaged 5.2 builtbefore1980and for apartments rate. Bycomparison,thevacancy rates 2000 averaging a5.2-percentvacancy inventory, builtafter withapartments do notvary significantly byage of percent, respectively. Vacancy rates 4.2and6.5 recorded vacancy ratesof cola andWest Pensacola marketarea - - Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 10 Sources: U.S.Census Bureau,BuildingPermitsSurvey; estimatesbyanalyst Notes: Excludes townhomes. Currentincludesdata throughOctober2014. *Pensacola-Ferry Pass-BrentHMA. Figure 9. 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 400 600 800 200 Rental Market Market TrendsHousing 0

Multifamily UnitsPermittedinthe 2000 to Current

2001 Continued 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006 of bedroomsaverage $550,$640, of income-restricted unitsbynumber from ayear ago. Effective rentsfor averaged $640monthly, up rents atincome-restrictedproperties from 11.9percentayear ago. Effective averagederties 6.4percent,down vacancy rateatincome-restrictedprop- ment inventory (ALNSystems).The theapart- an estimated12percentof comprise Income-restricted properties $770, and$670,respectively. Pace-Milton marketareaaverage $790, East Pensacola, West Pensacola, and effective rentsintheALN-defined average $940monthly. Bycomparison, Beachfront marketarea,wherethey from 25 units permitted duringthe from 25unitspermitted units were upsignificantly permitted, 2014, approximately 470multifamily During the12monthsendingOctober Commission). destroyed 41units(AreaHousing damage topublichousingand of caused$2.8million 29, 2014flood for atwo-bedroom unit.TheApril at$650 December 2011;rentsstart Palafox Landingwas com-pletein theincome-restricted96-unit tion of bedroom units, respectively. Construc and $750forone-,two-, andthree-

2007

2008 Pensacola

2009

2010

2011 HMA,*

2012 1 percent 2000 2013

2014

Pelicans ontheBay, comprisingan Spanish Bluffs, Chateau Royale, and multifamily properties, including Ivan2004, Hurricane destroyed several for vacation rentals. InSeptember condominiumsintended resort-style intended forowner occupancyand which includedcondominiums were intendedforcondominiums, multifamily unitspermitted cent of through 2007,anestimated52per- cember 2007(Figure9).From 2000 national recessionthatbeganinDe- from 2000through2007,beforethe ting averaged 1,050unitsannually data). Incontrast,multifamily permit previous 12months(preliminary Inc.). The 92-unitFairfield Manor, UWF(CBRE Group, the southof Pensacola, immediately to city of was completeinAugust 2014inthe students butnotrestrictedto students, Vue, whichismarketed primarily to the55-unitCollege of Construction the university (analyst’s estimates). many concentratedintheareanear renterhouseholds, private-market with to constitutelessthan3percentof ing 10,450studentsareestimated UWF’s remain 2,150 beds, mostof capacityestimatedat dormitory latest available data)andacurrent 2013(the thefallof students asof Inc.). With approximately 12,600 (CBREGroup,currently uncertain rentsare by August 2015;thestarting campus, isexpected tobecomplete WestUniversity Florida(UWF) of nearthe currently underconstruction The 165-unitResidences atHillview, condominiums virtually ceased. multifamily intended for permitting units annually; duringthisperiod, multifamily230 averaged permitting during andaftertherecentrecession, bia County).From 2008through 2013, units(Escam unspecified number of

- Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 11 Rental Market Market TrendsHousing Data Profile Sources: U.S.Census Bureau;U.S.Departmentof HousingandUrbanDevelopment; estimatesbyanalyst November 1,2014. and the12monthsthroughOctober 2014.MedianFamilyIncomesarefor1999,2009,and2013. The currentdateis Notes: Numbersmaynotaddto totals becauseofrounding.Employmentdatarepresentannualaverages for2000,2010, *Pensacola-Ferry Pass-BrentHMA. Table DP-1. Median FamilyIncome Rental vacancyrate Owner vacancyrate Total housingunits Percent renter Renter households Percent owner Owner households Total households Total population Nonfarm payroll jobs Unemployment rate Total resident employment Continued Pensacola HMA* Source: Estimatesbyanalyst November 1,2014,to2017. is period forecast construction willlikelysatisfysomeoftheestimateddemand.The Notes: Numbers maynotaddtototalsbecauseofrounding. The 430unitscurrently under *Pensacola-Ferry Pass-BrentHMA. Table 5. demand isestimatedfor930new During the3-year forecastperiod, units, respectively. and $670forone-two-bedroom at $579 The rentsareexpected tostart December 2014(CBREGroup, Inc.). and isexpected tobecompleteby Pensacola, inthecityof construction aged 55orolder, iscurrently under a community targeting seniorcitizens Monthly Gross 780 to979 Total 980 ormore DataProfile, 2000toCurrent $41,900 173,766 109,881 154,842 412,153 151,600 180,030 Rent ($) 44,961 12.8% 29.0% 71.0% 2000 2.3% 4.0% One Bedroom

Estimated DemandforNewMarket-RateRentalHousinginthe Pensacola Demand Units of 170 220 $57,100 201,463 118,871 173,148 448,991 156,700 190,377 55 54,277 15.9% 31.3% 68.7% 10.0% HMA* 2010 3.0%

Monthly Gross 830 to1,029 Total 1,230 ormore 1,030 to1,229 During theForecastPeriod Rent ($) Two Bedrooms $57,700 207,900 121,200 182,650 472,700 161,700 199,600 Current 61,450 11.4% 33.6% 66.4% 2.4% 6.2% number of bedroomsandrentlevels. number of Table 5shows forecastdemandby theforecastperiod. second year of units willnotbeneededuntilthe mand forthenext year; additional vacant available unitswillmeetde- andcurrent units underconstruction thisdemand(Table 1).The tion of willmeetapor under construction The 430market-rateunitscurrently market-rate rentalunitsintheHMA. Demand Units of 500 160 290 2000 to2010 40 Average AnnualChange(%) 3.1 1.5 1.9 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.6 1,000 to1,199 Total 1,400 ormore 1,200 to1,399 Monthly Gross Three orMore Bedrooms Rent ($) 2010 toCurrent 0.3 0.7 2.7 0.4 1.2 1.1 0.8 1.2 Demand Units of 200 100 75 30 -

Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 12 permit. Forpermit. example, someunitsclassified building orareissuedadifferenttypeof permit orcreated withoutabuilding are constructed activity thatoccursin an HMA.Someunits necessarily allresidentialbuilding reflect Building Permits: donot Buildingpermits Census Bureau. specifiedas“other”vacantthe category bythe workers;or occasionaluse;usedbymigrant and but notoccupied;heldforseasonal,recreational, thereforeincludesunitsrentedor sold The term units thatarenotavailable forsaleorrent. analysis, othervacant unitsincludeallvacant Housing andUrbanDevelopment’s (HUD’s) Other Vacant Units:IntheU.S. of Department the development pipeline. orunitsin for unitscurrently underconstruction excess vacancies. Theestimatesdonotaccount theanalysis, growth, losses, and dateof the as-of the3-year forecastperiodgiven conditionson of needed toachieve abalancedmarketattheend thetotalhousingproduction the estimatesof buildingactivity.are notaforecastof They are Demand: Thedemandestimatesintheanalysis 28,2013. Bulletin datedFebruary changes definedbytheOMB does notreflect the OMBBulletindatedDecember1,2009,and Management andBudget (OMB)in the Officeof isbased onthedelineationsestablishedby report The metropolitanstatisticalareadefinitioninthis Analyst’s estimates Forecast period:11/1/2014–11/1/2017— date:11/1/2014—Analyst’sCurrent estimates 2010: 4/1/2010—U.S. DecennialCensus 2000: 4/1/2000—U.S. DecennialCensus Data DefinitionsandSources www.huduser.org/portal/ushmc/chma_archive.html For on othermarketareas, additionalreports pleasego to

For tothehousingmarketfor additionaldatapertaining multifamily buildingpermits. single-family and are includedinthediscussionsof activity. theseestimates additional construction Someof this through diligent fieldwork, makesanestimateof residential buildingpermits. Asaresult,theanalyst, inthe arenotreflected as commercialstructures Contact Information pdf/CMARtables_Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent FL_15.pdf this HMA,goto on localeconomicandhousingmarketconditions. government officialswhoprovided dataandinformation sourcesandstatelocal appreciation tothoseindustry modified bysubsequentdevelopments. HUDexpresses its national sources. Assuch,findingsorconclusionsmay be datefromlocaland availableinformation onthe as-of aspossiblebasedon ings areasthoroughandcurrent and MarketAnalysis Division. Theanalysis andfind guidelines andmethodsdeveloped byHUD’s Economic The factualframework forthisanalysis follows the may beunderconsiderationbytheDepartment. insuranceproposalsthat anymortgage of acceptability regardingthe tomakedeterminations does notpurport housing marketconditionsandtrends. Theanalysis builders, mortgagees, withlocal andothersconcerned tion, findings, andconclusionsmay alsobeusefulto HUDinitsoperations.- Thefactualinforma guidance of This analysis fortheassistanceand hasbeenprepared [email protected] 817–978–9415 Fort Worth HUDRegional Office Fernando L.Ramirez,Economist http://www.huduser.org/publications/ . - .