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Social Climate/Column for Phil Daily Inquirer Indonesian pollsters assert their rights Column for Philippine Daily Inquirer PDI 08-48, 12-05-08 [for publication on 12-06-2008] Indonesian pollsters assert their rights Mahar Mangahas I thought this week’s workshop in Jakarta on “Polling on Voter Behavior,” organized by Lembaga Survei Indonesia (Indonesia Survey Institute, known by its initials LSI, pronounced El-Es-Ih) and the Friedrich Naumann Foundation, would be simply a fine opportunity to forge links with public opinion researchers from Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand (alas, the political mess at Bangkok airport kept them away), South Korea, and Germany. But it had a bit of drama too. The workshop began last Monday with the launching of “Studi Pemilu Empiris,” an Indonesian edition of the book “Empirical Election Research” by Professor Diether Roth of the University of Heidelberg. The program called for remarks on the book by Prof. Roth, by the Indonesian editor Dodi Ambardi of LSI, and by a representative of Komisi Pemilihan Umum (the general election commission, known by its initials KPU). Instead of talking about the new book, the KPU official revealed the intention of KPU to impose a regulation requiring that survey institutes intending to do quick counts be accredited first. (The background of this KPU attitude, it was explained to me, was a recent very close election race where the KPU count gave the victory to a candidate who was slightly behind in a survey-based quick count, which the pollsters said was too close to call. However, the fractionally-leading candidate filed a formal protest, claiming victory at least partly on the basis of the survey.) In reaction to the KPU’s threat, later that day the Indonesian pollsters discussed lengthily the need to formally adopt a code of professional ethics, as evidence of their research community’s capacity for self-discipline. I pointed out that the World Association for Public Opinion Research supports freedom in opinion polling worldwide, but has no Indonesian member yet, and strongly urged them to join. Membership signifies M. Mangahas, Social Climate, PDI 08-48 Dec 5 Indonesian pollsters assert their rights Indonesian pollsters assert their rights acceptance of the WAPOR code of professional ethics. The WAPOR code was downloaded and distributed to everyone by afternoon. The next day, the workshop participants were alarmed by the threatening news item “Lembaga Survei Hitung Cepat Akan Diakreditasi” (Survey Institute Quick Counts Will Be Accredited), in the major newspaper Kompas. So they set aside their planned program and used almost the whole morning to reach the following statement (translated into English): Joint statement Public Opinion Research Forum We, the public opinion research forum, a joint organization of public opinion research institutes and a number of universities all over Indonesia, hereby state that: 1. We refuse any kind of regulation on public opinion surveys by those who are not representatives of the field and not competent in public opinion research. 2. Our work on public opinion research is professional (transparent, accountable, and scientific) and based on the universal code of ethics on public opinion research set up by WAPOR (World Association for Public Opinion Research). 3. We maintain that all kinds of regulations on the implementation and publication of results of public opinion research are against the 1945 Indonesian constitution, particularly Articles 28 (C) and 28 (F), as amended. 4. We think that the concern of some people over the results of a quick count that differs can be resolved by ourselves, the public opinion forum, based on the scientific code. Differences also happen in lots of countries in the world and can be resolved by the quick count organizer scientifically and within the internal forum of public opinion research. The statement was signed by twenty Indonesian pollsters, led by Saeful Mujani, chairman of LSI. Initially, they wanted to call a press conference, but cancelled the idea upon learning that the reporters present the day before had all gone to the Constitutional Court to hear its decision on the precise election case that caused the KPU’s ire. M. Mangahas, Social Climate, PDI 08-48 Dec 5 Indonesian pollsters assert their rights Indonesian pollsters assert their rights The next day, Wednesday, the court’s decision was reported in the English paper The Jakarta Post: “East Java election results annulled, vote rerun to be held in two months.” The court annulled the results of the East Java gubernatorial election, citing “systematic and massive” election fraud in three regencies on Madura Island. It ordered a vote rerun in two regencies within 60 days, and a vote recount in the third regency within 30 days. The Post said that KPU had declared the team of Soekarwo and running mate Saifullah Yusuf as winners of the November 4 runoff vote against the team of Khofifah Indar Parawansa and running mate Mudjiwono, contradicting quick counts carried out by six pollsters. However, the court found that Soekarwo had signed a deal with the secretary-general of the East Java village chiefs association to pay between 50 and 150 million rupiah (between 4,000 and 12,000 US dollars) to each village in exchange for supporting him. As many as 23 village chiefs agreed to help Soekarwo win. In one district, 19 chiefs told members of the village polling committee to mark hundreds of ballots in favor of Soekarwo. Khofifah, who was women’s empowerment minister under former President Megawati Soekarnoputri, welcomed the ruling. Her team was nominated by the United Development Party and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle. Soekarwo, a minister for disadvantaged regions under current President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, accepted the ruling, said the Post. His team was nominated by the president’s Democratic Party and the National Mandate Party. Both sides claimed they would win in the rerun. An election, an official vote-count, an election protest, and a final and binding court ruling on the protest, all within only 30 days? That’s Indonesia, not the Philippines. Contact SWS: www.sws.org.ph or [email protected]. # M. Mangahas, Social Climate, PDI 08-48 Dec 5 Indonesian pollsters assert their rights .
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