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Taking the Quantum Leap ExpertInsights@IBV Taking the quantum leap Why now? IBM Institute for Business Value 2 Taking the quantum leap A quantum tipping point Given the opportunity, most businesses probably would leap at the chance to go back in time to capitalize early on yesterday’s game-changing technologies, such as the internet. The chance to get ahead of the competition is here again today with quantum computing. The technology is maturing every day and it’s now at an early commercialization tipping point. Quantum has the potential to reinvent the worlds of business, science, education and government in fundamentally new ways. 3 Understated or overhyped? At its essence, the word “quantum” evokes quantum cryptography and quantum sensing. wonder. Because the word is attention-grabbing, While commercially-available, fault-tolerant Putting the “quantum” in companies use it to brand products as diverse as quantum computers flexible enough to solve any quantum computing internet browsers, batteries, fishing reels and problem may be more than a decade away, busi- Quantum computing is a new computing healthcare services. But what should truly grab nesses may benefit from some aspects of quantum paradigm with powerful implications for business, science, education and government. attention is the fact that prototype quantum computing as early as in the next five years. Two properties of subatomic particles known as computers are now commercially available. The importance of quantum computing is both superposition and entanglement put the “quantum” in quantum computing. What makes quantum computing extraordinary is understated and widely overhyped at the same Qubits (pronounced CUE-bits) are the building that it’s based on quantum mechanics, which is time. Perhaps it’s appropriate for a major blocks of quantum computers. They can exist in a the deepest explanation of reality available. computer science breakthrough that allows infor- state known as quantum superposition. Quantum mechanics underpins our natural world. mation to exist in multiple states and places at the Superposition makes qubits exponentially Similarly, quantum computing becomes a funda- same time. Quantum computing applications use powerful. A 2-qubit system can exist in a superposition of four states, a 3-qubit system can mental building block of computing solutions. this feature to gain efficiencies. exist in a superposition of eight states, a 4-qubit Quantum computing exploits the properties of system can be in a superposition of 16 states, and Although it won’t replace conventional computers, subatomic particles to process information. so on. As qubits are added, quantum computing quantum innovation represents a new computing capability can grow exponentially. Richard Feynman, a noted theoretical physicist, paradigm. Quantum can work in unison with identified the potential for quantum computers as An effect that Albert Einstein called “spooky current computing infrastructure to solve action at a distance,” we now understand as a far back as 1981.1 Today, researchers are complex problems that were previously thought manifestation of quantum entanglement. progressing quantum computing from academic Entanglement allows computational exploration impractical or impossible. For example, factoring a theory to the threshold of commercialization. of an exponentially large set of opportunities, large number into primes is the basis of modern vastly accelerating the speed at which quantum This report focuses on quantum computing, cryptography. On a conventional computer, this algorithms run. which is one of four areas where quantum-related calculation would take trillions of years. On a future The ability to manage superposition and research is exhibiting significant advancement. quantum computer, in not too many years, it could entanglement is what makes quantum computers uniquely effective in solving The other three are quantum communications, take only minutes. extremely complex exponential problems. 4 Taking the quantum leap Applying quantum at work Given the potential of quantum computing, now is business processes that span everything from the time to explore the implications for business. basic logistics to complex decision-making (see Quantum computing is expected to revolutionize Figure 1). Quantum computing may be able to solve the optimization of complicated business systems. some of today’s known problems faster and It may open the way for breathtaking efficiency in provide new tools for solving future problems. Figure 1 Quantum’s potential impact on problem-solving for applications and industries Industries Telecom Aerospace Optimized network Materials development infrastructure Retail Consumer products Dynamic pricing Applications Unique marketing Materials Logistics offers Travel Software Marketing Life sciences Optimized itineraries Simulation development Drug discovery Problem types Weather/climate Cryptography forecasting Utilities Optimization Machine Financial services Power transmission learning Portfolio Training Big data management Healthcare Search Manufacturing Government Optimized Air traffic control treatment Chemistry Decision support Oil and gas/mining Transportation Exploration Optimized routes 5 Consider a logistics problem that involves 50 Now consider an optimization problem in financial items, such as a travel itinerary with 50 cities or a services. For each client, portfolio managers 50! (50 factorial) choices shift work schedule for 50 people. Arranging the could use quantum computing to optimize a Calculating 50! choices requires checking 30,414 choices in the optimal order involves working with unique mix of exponentially better-tailored invest- ,093,201,713,378,043,612,608,166,064,768,844,3 77,641,568,960,512,000,000,000,000 possible 30,414,093,201,713,378,043,612,608,166,064,768, ment options in significantly less time. The time combinations, one at a time.3 Using qubits 844,377,641,568,960,512,000,000,000,000 saved would give advisors greater capacity and renders the calculation much easier. A quantum possible combinations (see sidebar). Historically, flexibility so they could provide financial planning computer can represent these choices in a quantum superposition of only 215 effective humans made these types of decisions based on that is specific to each individual client’s investing qubits (log 2(50!) = 214.3). This calculation intuition or prior experience. Calculating the most criteria and risk profile. demonstrates the exponential efficiency cost effective (optimal) sequence would take anticipated with quantum computing. But quantum computing can do far more than just years on a powerful supercomputer, and even solve business optimization problems. Quantum then, the answer would only be an approximation. computing also can be used to accurately model But finding the best solution on a quantum the natural world. For example, in molecular computer could potentially be completed in chemistry, understanding molecules and being minutes. Think of the ramifications for a business able to simulate their behavior is fundamental to that learns its historical approach isn’t optimal. drug discovery. Yet, the best supercomputers in Discovering the best answer could save this the world can only simulate a system of about company vast amounts of money. A new 43 electrons, which is terribly inadequate for approach could provide customers with accurately designing the pharmaceuticals, profoundly more personalized and precise vaccines and antibiotics that will be required.2 services and recommendations, and potentially Quantum computers seem uniquely suited for help the company become an industry leader. solving this type of problem. 6 Taking the quantum leap Science fiction, quantum fact Quantum computing’s capabilities go well beyond than USD 10 billion by 2024.4 It is only a matter of optimization and modeling. Quantum developers time. Whether it takes months or years, quantum are already applying their skills to look at thorny computing looks to surpass classical computing business problems in areas such as data security, for specific business problems, such as developing fraud detection and machine learning. They new materials or optimizing airline routes. It’s time undoubtedly will invent dynamic new uses for to get ready. quantum computing. Companies won’t even need to own their own Despite claims to the contrary, no one has yet used quantum computer to take advantage of its prob- quantum computing to solve a business problem lem-solving capabilities. By 2024, HSRC estimates that could not currently be solved with a classical that quantum-computing-as-a-service will comprise computer. Only a few, relatively small quantum nearly half of the quantum computing market.5 There computers have been built. However, there is a path are already quantum computers accessible to the forward to a transformational quantum future. public on the cloud for experimentation and Homeland Security Research Corp. (HSRC) reports education. They are primed to expand. the market for quantum computing will be more 7 Ready, set, quantum Experts on this topic Now is the right time for business leaders to prepare • Experiment with a real quantum computer Dr. Robert Sutor for quantum. The conditions are in place to experi- now. Free quantum processors are available ment and expand this fundamental new technology. over the cloud. Explore the tutorials and simu- Vice President 6 AI, Blockchain and Quantum Solutions Here are a few initial steps business leaders can take: lators and
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