ATTENDANCE IN THE NATIONAL HOCKEY LEAGUE
AFTER THE LOCKOUT
A THESIS
Presented to
The Faculty and Department Of Economics and Business
The Colorado College
In Partial Fulfillment
Of the Requirements for the Degree
Bachelor of Arts
By
Alexa Bannerman
May/2009 A TTENDANCE IN THE NATIONAL HOCKEY LEAGUE AFFTER
THE 2003-2004 SEASON ENDING LOCKOUT
Alexa Bannerman
May, 2009
Economics and Business
Abstract
For many years the National Hockey League was struggling to bring fans to their games. Due to such low attendance and salary caps, the National Hockey League decided to have a lockout in 2004-2005 which was the first ever season ending lockout in any sport. Since the lockout, attendance in the NHL slowly started to increase. This thesis looks at what factors affect attendance in the NHL since the lockout. Attendance was low before the lockout, but after the lockout attendance started to increase more and more every year. This thesis tests for what the NHL is doing right since the lockout so that they can continue to increase their attendance ratings even more.
The research was taken from NHL.com, Versus. com, and ESPN.com. Data was found for all thirty NHL teams. A regression was used to test the data with the dependent variable being attendance. The independent variables are; goals scored, total points, winning percent, competitive balance, location, all-stars, games played, play-offs, weekend games, minor penalty minutes, and major penalty minutes. The regression found that four variables were significant in affecting attendance. These four variables were goals scored, location, minor penalty minutes, and major penalty minutes. This thesis proves that there are other factors besides game factors that affect attendance; however, the four game factors that affect attendance go along with the new rule changes that the NHL created after the lockout proving that the NHL is doing some of the right things to increase attendance in the NHL.
(Keywords- Hockey, Attendance, Lockout) ON MY HONOR, I HAVE NEITHER GIVEN NOR RECEIVED
UNAUTHORIZED AID ON THIS THESIS TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter Page
I. INTRODUCTION ...... 1 II. LITERATURE REVIEW ...... 8
Factors that affect attendance ...... 9
Location ...... 11
Competitive Balance and Winning Percent...... 15
Violence ...... 19
All-stars ...... 21
New Facilities ...... 23
Discrimination ...... 26
Summary ...... 29
III. METHODOLOGy ...... 32
Dependent Variable ...... 34
Independent Variables ...... 35
Predicted Outcomes ...... 36 IV. RESULTS ...... 46 V. CONCLUSIONS ...... 54 VI. SOURCES CONSUL TED ...... , ..... 59 LIST OF TABLES
2.1 Factors Impacting Attendance ...... '" 10
3.1 Teams in the National Hockey League ...... 33
3.2 Independent Variable Summary ...... 35
3.3 Predicted Value of The Independent Variables ...... 36
4.1 Summary Statistics ...... 48
4.2 Regression Analysis Results ...... 49 LIST OF FIGURES
1.1 Attendance in the National Hockey League ...... 4 1.2 Goals Scored Per Games ...... , .... 6 2.1 Factors That affect Attendance ...... 9 LIST OF MODELS 3.1 ...... 45 4.1 ...... 46 CHAPTER I
INTRODUCTION
"Hockey captures the essence of Canadian experience in the new world. In a land so
inescapably and inhospitably cold, hockey is the chance of life, and an affirmation that despite
the deathly chill of winter we are alive". I For many Canadians hockey is a way oflife and the
most skilled Canadian players choose to showcase their talents in the National Hockey League,
which is considered as the best professional hockey league in the world. The National Hockey
League (NHL) is made up of over fifty percent Canadians and yet there are more American
teams than Canadian teams that make up the league. Typically, however, Americans do not show
the same pride and passion as their partners up north which can be seen in the low attendance
that some franchises have been averaging. Before the lockout, many teams were struggling to
sell tickets, however, since the lockout ticket sales have increased. 2
This thesis is going to look at the factors that affect NHL attendance since the lockout-out
in the 2004-2005 season. The analysis will show the impact that location has on attendance along with other factors that may affect attendance, including goals scored, competitive balance, all-
stars, fights, playoff experience, total points, saves, weekend games, and new rules and regulations. There are many different reasons why fans attend hockey games, and if franchises
I Leacock, Stephen. "Hockey Quotes and Sayings." Quotes and Sayings. Available from http://www.quotesnsayings.com/hockey/. Internet; accessed 27 March 2009.
2 Ziehm, Len. "Hawks' Ticket Prices on ice." Chicago Sun Times. Available from http://www.suntimes.com/sports/hockeylblackhawks/ 1474777 ,CST-SPT -htix 13 .article. Internet; accessed 27 March 2009. 2
can figure out which of these factors affect attendance ratings, than they will be able to improve
their attendance sales by focusing on these factors that are known to significantly affect
attendance.
Purpose
The purpose of this thesis is to examine how attendance has been affected since the
lockout in the 2004-2005 season. The lockout was the first ever lockout in sports to end an entire
season for any sport. There have been strikes but nothing to this extent that actually ends an
entire season. The lockout is the first time since 1919 that the Stanley cup has not come to terms
on player salaries in time for the start of the 2004 season. The lockout resulted in the loss of the
entire 2004-2005 season and produced an outcome in favor of the owners including a salary cap,
a pay cut for players, new free-agency rules, a new drug-testing policy, and changes in the rules
of play. 3 In the 2005-2006 season following the lockout, attendance in the NHL slowly started to
increase and by the second year the NHL saw an increase of 91 %. 4 This is a significant increase
for any sports team to see in a single year, even baseball which has had similar labor strikes has
not been able to produce as much ofan increase in attendance. If the hockey league as a whole can figure out what the reasons are for the increase in attendance, than the franchises may have a better chance of increasing their attendance ratings which in tum increases their revenue. (Even another five percent increase in attendance would help the league tremendously due to the amount of games played in a single hockey season). Attendance is such an important issue in the
3 Staudohar, Paul D .. "The Hockey Lockout of2004-05." Monthly Labor Review, no. 29 (2005): 1-23.
4 Holloway, Andy. "Hockey Stuck." Canadian Business, no. 9 (2006): 3
National Hockey League and right now due to ESPN dropping their broadcasting rights with the
league, fans are unable to watch as many games as they would before. The NHL signed a deal
with the Outdoor Life Network and another deal with Versus (an up and coming sports network)
that is worth $216 million over the next three years. 5 However, the revenue that they are bringing
in does not compare to the revenue that was brought in from the broadcasting rights that the
NHL had with ESPN. With national, broadcasting rights down, attendance in one of the major
forms of revenue that is brought in for the NHL which adds to the pressure of franchises to bring
in large ticket sales.
So what has changed? In the early 1980's the National hockey League's attendance was
up and fans would be at the games early and many would never leave before the game was over.
In a one on one interview, Murray Bannerman talks about the fans and attendance when he played for the Chicago Blackhawks. "When I was playing hockey, the Chicago Stadium would be packed before the games. People would never come to games late, now you see people arriving to the game after the first period.,,6 In the late 1990's and until the lockout, the NHL lost a significant amount of fans. Teams at this time were struggling to bring in enough revenue to break even. The Buffalo Sabres were one of a few teams to actually file for bankruptcy. 7 The franchise actually owed its creditors over $206 million. Figure 1.1 shows the decrease in attendance from the late 1990's until the 2004 season ending lockout. After the lockout, the attendance records start to rise again.
5 Thomaselli, Rich. "Reality Checked: NHL Ratings, Crowds Shrink," Advertising Age, no. 76 (2005):
6 Bannerman, Murray, "Live interview of the Chicago Stadium." accessed 21 December 2008.
7 "NHL's Buffalo Sabres File for Bankruptcy Protection." CBS News, (2003): 4
FIGURE 1.1 A TTENANCE IN THE NATIONAL HOCKEY LEAGUE
11000 17000
16000 ~'<"''<' lSOOO 14000 15000 .""" 12000 11000 10000 toOO
! tooo ."'<>'<' >< h~~" ''!'' <" 1m 2000 2001 2002 loo) 2004 2007
*Hockey Rants chart on attendance in the NHL 8
This graph shoes the decrease in attendance since 1999 until the lockout in 2004. 2003 had the worst year for attendance in the NHL only bringing in an average of 10,500 fans per game; however after the lockout attendance starts to increase at a fairly high rate. The 2007/2008 season sold approximately 3,500 more tickets on average compared to the 2002/2003 season.
8 Jes. "A Breif Look at Post-Lockout NHL Attendance." Hockey Rants. Available from http://www.jesgolbez.blogspot.com/2007_03_0l_archive.html. Internet; accessed lJanuary 2009. 5
When the lockout took place, many spectators worried that the National Hockey League
would be unable to get back onto their feet. The League however, was able to increase their
attendance. Were fans scared that the franchise would shut down again if revenue was not
brought in? This may have been one of the reasons why attendance has increased in the past
three years. After three seasons attendance is still increasing which makes this theory possible
due to the novelty effect of the game. A novelty effect is when fans are so interested in what is
new that they are attracted to the game because of it. In this case the end of the lockout will
attract more fans instead of the game of hockey itself to a certain amount of time.
After the lockout, many new rules were created in an attempt to facilitate more scoring
chances. The new rules are; two line passes are now allowed, there are no more ties- instead one
five minute overtime will be played and a shootout will follow if no goals have been scored,
there are smaller neutral zones, goal lines have been moved in from thirteen inches to eleven
inches, there are tag up off sides, the size of goaltending equipment has been reduced, there are
no line changes if a team ices the puck, zero tolerance on penalties, fines for diving, and new
regulations on where goaltenders can play the puck from. The new rules are intended to open up
the ice as well as to keep the clock running so that there is more space. The new rules will also allow there to be more flow to the game. They have also brought interest back from the fans by seeing scoring increase since the rules inception. Beacham and the NHL board discussed several proposals floating in the hockey world to increase scoring.9 Many people believed that if scoring could increase then more fans would want to watch the game because it would be more exciting.
Figure 1.2 shows the increase in scoring since the lockout.
9 Beacham, Greg. "NHL Borad of Govemors sees Scoring Drop as Temporary, Wraps up Meeting Without Big Charges." Assoicated Press, (2007): I. 6
FIGURE 1.2
GOALS SCORE PER GAME
(5
5
1
o 2003 2004 2000 2007
Goals scored per game in the NHL 10
The graph shows two seasons before the lockout as well as two seasons after the lockout and it is evident that scoring has increased since the lockout. It is also important to see that the largest increase was in power play goals, a power play goal is when one team is a man up due to the other team serving time in the penalty box. The average goals scored per game before the lockout was 5.1 goals; however after the lockout goals scored per game jumped up to 5.9 goals
10 Ryder, Alan. "Welcome Back to the New NHL Globe Sports." Globe Sports. Available from http://www.globesports.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081 027. wsptryder I 023/GSStory/G 10beSports/home. Internet; accessed 1 January 2009. 7
per game. II This is just one more hypothesis to why the NHL' s attendance ratings increased
after the lockout.
There has been a lot of research done in the past on factors that affect the NHL's
attendance before the lockout. Using this data, a hypothesis can be made to help determine
factors that affect the NHL's attendance since the lockout. The hypothesis is as follows: goals
scored, fights, competitive balance, all-stars, weekend vs. weekday games, location, and games
played will all impact attendance. The variables stated above are not the final results. The final results will be shown in later chapters. This hypothesis is based on previous research done in the
NHL before the lockout as well as in other studies of other sports such as Major League
Baseball, the National Football League, the National Basketball Association, and from UEFA, which is a European soccer association with the best European soccer teams all competing in one league.
In the following chapter, the Major League Baseball (MLB), National Football League
(NFL), National Hockey League (NHL), National Basketball Association (NBA) , and Union of
European Football Associations (UEF A) will be looked at as well as the variables listed above in the hypothesis. The articles will explain the effects that various factors have had on attendance in sporting events as well as what factors do not affect attendance on a significant level.
II Ryder, Alan. "Scoring Increase in the NHL." Globemedia, (2008): 1-2. CHAPTER II
LITERATURE REVIEW
Attendance has been one of the few ways that the National Hockey League is able to bring in revenue. With attendance at 91 % capacity in 2006 (compared to baseball's attendance at
69.31 %), many franchises are interested in what is being done right. 12 The National Hockey
League (NHL) has struggled for many years trying to increase attendance. The season following the lockout in 2004-2005, ESPN refused to renew the NHL's broadcasting rights which hurt their revenue significantly, however, some revenue was still brought in from national broadcasting rights through the Outdoor life Network for $135 million. Other channels such as Versus are now starting to show more NHL games which will help ratings. In the 2008-2009 season Versus signed a deal with the NHL for $72 million every year for the next three years and even more if the ratings keep going upY Versus expects to see an increase in the ratings since the 2007-2008 season viewing has gone up fifty percent. National broadcasting helps fans stay in touch with their teams whether they are home or away and as we see in the case of the Chicago Blackhawks when games are broadcasted on national television, attendance at games increases. For example, during the 2006-2007 season the Blackhawks did a "black-out" where they did not play any games on television and their attendance was at 63.9%. However, during the 2007-2008 season and the start of the 2008-2009 season more games were able to be viewed on
12 Holloway, Andy. "Hockey Stuck." Canadian Business, no. 9 (2006):
13 Bettman, Gal)', and Bloom Howard. "The National Hockey League- The Cable TV Deal that Makes No Sense (or Does it ?)." Sports Business News, (2008): 8 9 television and attendance ratings have increased up to 82% in the 2007-2008 season to 100% in the beginning of the 2008-2009 season. This suggests that national broadcasting rights can affect attendance in the National Hockey League.
This chapter reviews studies done on attendance pre-lockout in the National Hockey
League along with other sports such as Major League Baseball, the National Football League, the National Basketball Association, and the European Soccer League. There is still much that is unknown about the National Hockey league so this thesis will also pose new fields of research that have not been looked at yet. Figure 2.1 presents a summary of the major factors impacting attendance in sports and will serve to organize this chapter.
FIGURE 2.1
FACTORS THAT AFFECT ATTENANCE
/ ( location \ NE'W Stadium sand disoimination FacilitiE's
Sports Attendance
,~U-stars and Fighting and superstars violence -.~'\
CompetitiVE' \ Balan(e ,mel \ winning \ per(entage " 10
Table 2.1 summarizes important studies on attendance. The left side of the table shows the section topics while the rest of the table shows the summary conclusions from the studies that affect attendance. The rest of this chapter will summarize the important conclusions in much more depth.
TABLE 2.1
FACTORS IMPACTING ATTENDANCE
Section Title Summary Authors
Location Location overall helps attendance. When Carlton, 2004, teams are in good locations they will Jones, 1988 have better attendance. If a team Weidecke, 1999 relocates the short run impact will hurt Weinfree, 2004 attendance, but in the long run, teams can start to see a profit
Competitive Determine the outcome of fans at a game. Falter, 2008 balance and If a team is expected to win a game, Hayne, 2006 wmnmg attendance will decrease; if a team is Meehan, 2007 percentage expected to win attendance will also Weilke, 1994 decrease. Fans want uncertainty when watching a game so a more competitive league will have better attendance ratings.
Fighting and Helps attendance in hockey, but Ferguson, 1993 Violence Canadian teams would rather watch a Jones, 1996 game of hockey than see a lot of fights; Paul,2003 whereas Americans love to see fights break out in hockey games.
All- stars and Brandes, 2008 Superstars Attract fans to games through Hausman, 1997 extraordinary performance. Local 11
superstars only attract fans to home games based off of popularity. Nationwide superstars attract fans to both home and away games because fans want to see their skill and talent.
New Facilities They are extremely expensive and often Coates, 2005 and Stadiums require public financing in order to help Leadley, 2005 pay for the building. New facilities tend to increase attendance due to the novelty effect or the honeymoon effect. After time these wear off and attendance will go back to normal. The increase in attendance is not enough to pay for the new stadium so teams often have to rely on public financing.
Discrimination Discrimination is generally always seen Burdekin, 1991 as a bad thing and in sports Pedace,2008 discrimination is also considered bad Scully, 1973 except in the English premier league where fans of every race and color want to see South Americans play soccer.
Location
In some sports location has a more significant impact than others. For example, in the
NHL, Canada has been home to most of the NHL's playersl4. In fact in the 1960's and 1970's it was a big surprise when American players made it into the NHL. 15 In sports like soccer and baseball warmer weather is often important in bringing in fan attendance because it is easier to watch a game in warmer weather than sitting outside in the freezing cold and snow. Location is
14 Hockey Wigets.com, 2007.
15 Davidson, John, and Steinbreder John. Hockey For Dummies. Foster city: lOG Worldwide, 1997. 12 also important because it is hard to pick up a team and move locations. Lastly, if there is already another team in the area they have to think about sharing revenue with the other team which tends to lower attendance for both franchises. This next section highlights specific studies that have examined how location affects attendance.
The first study on location is a study done by Winfree, McClusky, Mittelharnmer, and
Fort (2004). This study looks at the location of Baseball stadiums and the impact on attendance in Major League Baseball. This study also examines the impact on attendance when there is a substitute (minor league teams in the same location or very close to the same location). They hypothesize that the closer the MLB teams are to their substitute team, than the less fans they will have at games. They also hypothesize that this will not only affect the attendance ratings for the major league team but for the minor league team as well. They concluded that the closer the major league team is to their minor league team the lower the attendance will be for each team relative to major league teams that are further away from a minor league team. 16 The next study also looks at teams that are located in the same city or in cities close by; however, the sport they studied is hockey.
Carlton, Frankel, and Landes (2004) look at the NHL to see if they have market power.
Along with Winfree et al (2004), Carlton, Frankel, and Landes (2004) believe that a team that is located in close proximity to another team will not sell as many tickets due to competition. They take their study even further and look at how the relocation of a team can also affect attendance.
They believe that a sports team is like joint ventures because franchises have to work together in order to make the league work and be successful. Their definition for success is for a team is to make it to the championship tournament. Their study looks at data from the twenty one teams in
16 Fort, Rodney, McCluskey Will, Mittelhammer Ron, and Winfree Jason. "Location and Attendance in Major League Baseball." Applied Economics, no. 36 (2004): 2117-2124. 13 the league in the 1980's. They believe that if an NHL team is the only team in the area than that team will have market power due to the relatively high demand for NHL tickets. The higher demand for tickets gives the franchise a chance to raise market prices in an attempt to maximize profits; however, if they raise the prices too much than fans will find another source of entertainment. Another factor that they look at is expansion teams. They believe that an expansion team will not always be best for the teams already in the NHL. They use the example of Tampa Bay having a team and the NHL wanting to open up a team in Orlando. They believe that this will lower the attendance in both arenas because there is no longer just one team in the area. Fans now have a choice of which game they can attend. They also look at relocation which is when a team moves from one city to another city. They examine two teams that have moved in the past, the first team moved from Kansas City to Colorado, and the second team from Atlanta to Calgary. Their results show that attendance decreases when teams move. Overall, they conclude that a team that has moved will draw fewer fans to their home games and thereby imposes a cost on all the other league members. 17 So although relocation might be more beneficial in the long run, the short-term effects of relocation hurt the NHL. Opening up more teams in the same city also hurt attendance due to fans having more options when choosing which game to attend. The next study by Jones and Ferguson (1988) agree with Carlton, Frankel, and Landes (2004) with the way that they look at the NHL as a business.
Jones and Ferguson (1988) believe that the NHL can be looked at as a business. They do not look at the NHL as a league but instead they look at individual teams through supply and demand and they agree with Carlton, Frankel and Landes (2004) that re-Iocation might hurt a team and a city in the short run but in the long run it can be beneficial for attendance. They set
17 Carlton, Dennis W., Frankel, Alan S. , and Landes Elisabeth M .. "The Control of Externalities in Sports Leagues: An Analysis of Restrictions in the National Hockey League." Journal of Political Economy, University o/Chicago. no. 112 (2004): 266-288. 14
teams as local monopolies and they devise a model of demand with price and attendance. They
hypothesize that location will have an effect on attendance; however, they do not state whether the results are positive or negative. Their results show that attendance at hockey games is an
inferior good, which is also known as a good in which is not a necessity to have. They also find that location does playa significant role on attendance and that is why teams move to another
location. An example of a team that has moved to another location is Atlanta. The original
Atlanta team moved to Calgary to become the Calgary flames because Canadian teams had higher attendance ratings. Jones and Ferguson (1988) conclude that in the long run better quality teams tend to emerge in better quality locations. IS These better quality locations are known to be more northern cities and Canadian cities which are known as hockey towns compared to southern cities which are not as well known for their hockey. The last study to look at location also finds that northern locations in hockey may be more beneficial than southern locations due to popularity of the sport.
Weidecke (1999) looks at many different variables in her study in order to find out which variables affect game day attendance before the lockout. Weidecke's (1999) study further strengthens Ferguson and Jone's (1988) results that northern locations are known more their appreciation of hockey. Weidecke (1999) also agrees with Ferguson and Jones (1988) in that southern cities tend to have fewer fans than northern cities. Her findings are that only points scored and locations are significant factors impacting attendance. 19 Weidecke's (1999) conclusions show that points scored during a season affect a team by an average increase of sixty one fans for each additional point that a team earns. Lastly, she finds that there are fewer fans
18 Ferguson, D.G., and Jones J.C.H. "Location and Survival in the National Hockey League." Journal of Industrial Economics, no. 36 (1988): 443-457.
19 Weidecke, Jennifer. "affecting attendance in the National Hockey League: A multiple regression modeL" Master's thesis, University of North Carolina Chapel Hills, (1999): 15 who attend games the further south a hockey team is located meaning that there are more fans who attend games in northern cities.
In summary, location has both positive and negative impacts on attendance. A way in which to make location a positive aspect on attendance would be to have only one team in the area. If there is more than one team in the area relocation is the best idea for the long run benefit of the franchise even if it hurts their attendance in the short-run. Location can have a negative impact on attendance if a team chooses to stay where they have a lot of competition. More teams in one area means the fans will have more of a choice when deciding which game to attend. If a team chooses not to relocate and has competition from other teams in the area, than location can have a negative impact on both teams in the area. Another negative impact that location has on attendance in hockey is that southern teams are not known as well for hockey then northern teams, so in the end southern states are going to have a harder time bringing in more fans. Once a team has found their location, they must look at other factors that can affect their attendance records. The next section focuses on how competitive balance and winning percentage affect attendance in sports.
Competitive Balance and Winning Percentage
The more unpredictable the outcome of a sporting league's events are, the more competitively
2o balanced that particular league is assumed to be . A perfectly competitive league would be a league where every team wins exact Iy half their games? I If a team is winning all of their games than the league is not as competitive as it could be. Uncertainty keeps the game interesting.
20 Preissing, Thomas. "Determinants of Competitive Balance in the National Hockey League." Department of Economics and Business. The Colorado College.
21 Preissing, Thomas. "Determinants of Competitive Balance in the National Hockey League." Department of Economics and Business, The Colorado College. 16
Competitive balance and winning percentage have different effects on attendance in different sports. Baseball and football fans would rather have uncertainty in the game than knowing their home team is going to win while hockey and soccer fans would rather see their home teams win.
The studies below look at competitive balance and winning percentage and how they affect attendance outcome. The studies below show the effects that competitive balance and winning percent has in different sports. These studies also show that certain sports have a more similar fans base than other sports.
Meehan, Nelson, and Richardson (2007), look at how competitive balance effects game day attendance in Major League Baseball. They do this by using the attendance levels for the
2000-2002 seasons. The results highlight three points. First, the results find that the effects of change in competitive balance on attendance are not symmetric. Second, they find that the effects of change in competitive balance increase as a team falls further behind from the divisional leader. Lastly, the effects of change in competitive balance decline throughout the season. If the home team has a better record than the visiting team but increases if the visiting team has a better record than the home team. 22 This shows that fans want to see a team that is going to compete and also that the uncertainty outcome of a game does attract fans. People do not want to see a game that is going to be a blowout especially if it is going to be their home team. The results show that the more competitive a league is, than the higher the attendance ratings for the game will be. The next study looks at the affects winning percentage and competitive balance has on the NFL and like Meehan, Nelson, and Richardson, they believe uncertainty is more important to fans than a perfect winning percentage.
22Meehan, James W., Nelson Randy A., and Richardson Thomas V .. "Competitive Balance and Game Attendance in Major League Baseball." Journal o/Sports Economics. no. 8 (2007): 563-580. 17
Weilki and Zlaptor (1994) look at winning percentage for the NFL and supports the previous study in saying that an uncertainty in a game will attract more fans than if the team is expected to win. Weiki and Zlaptor (1994) use a Tobit Analysis to show that there is significance between the winning percentage of a team and the amount of fans that attend their games. The winning percentage of a league over the years along with competitive balance affects attendance for the National Football League?3 Weilki and Zlaptor (1994) show the significant impact that winning percentage has in the long run when used to find competitive balance. In the NFL no team consistently has a really high winning percentage?4 Although some teams may always be above 500, there is no team who consistently wins the super bowl. From this study, they conclude that the National Football League has been a competitive league for many years and that the league can expect to be competitive for many more years. This means that the NFL can expect attendance rates to stay close to one hundred percent. The third study to look at winning percentage does not support the conclusions of Weilki and Zlaptor (1994).
Hayne (2006) examines winning percentage in the National Hockey League and does not support the other two studies conclusions that believe uncertainty in a game is important.
Hayne (2006) believes that winning percentage is important in bringing fans to games even if that means the fans know their team is going to win or lose. In an attempt to increase attendance and revenue, Hayne (2006) constructs a study on winning percentage. Hayne (2006) uses an ordinary least squares regression analysis and data sets for team point production and goals allowed. From his results he finds that fighting has a significant impact on a team's winning percentage. Fighting was proven to change the momentum of a game and give the losing team a
23 Welki, Andrew, and Zlatoper Thomas. "US Professinoal Football: The Demand for Game Day Attendance in 1991." Managerial and Decision Economics, no, 15 (1994): 489-495.
24 "NFL Standings." ESPN. Available froIl) http://sports,espn.go.com/nfi/standings. Internet; accessed 27 March 2009. 18 new life without having to wait for the end of a period. All of the variables that Hayne tested were significant in determining winning percentage. The variables are goals scored, assists, penalty minutes, majors, shots, saves, save percentage, plus/minus, power play goals, total face offs won, total face offs lost, and even strength goals?5 Teams with a higher winning percentage will see more fans at their games than a team who has a lower winning percentage. The next study agrees with Hayne in saying that a higher winning percentage will help attract more fans.
Falter, Perignon, and Vercruysse (2008) looks at winning percentage through world cup soccer and the effect that winning has on the fan's attendance. They believe that the period following a world cup victory will bring an increase to consumer demand (attendance) due to the increase in overwhelming joy that comes from their country winning the world cup. The study looks at the 1998 world cup which was hosted by France. They look at the effect of the home team winning the world cup. From their tests they find that demand was higher in France after they won the world cup in 1998. They find that the cities that host the world cup do see an increase in their attendance ratings. 26 This study also finds that exceptional performance during the world cup and a higher winning percentage also improves the sport's popularity amongst the country. This study shows the significant impact that winning percentage has on a country's consumer demand. The more a team wins in soccer during the world cup, the more interested the fans from that country are going to be.
From these studies it is evident that competitive balance and winning percentage do impact attendance; however they affect sports differently. As we see above soccer fans love to see their
25 Hayne, John. "NHL Team Production." The Department of Economics and Business at Colorado College, (2006): 6S.
26 Falter, Jean-Marc, Perignon Christophe, and Vercruysse. "Impact of Overwhelming Joy on Consumer Demand: The Case ofa Soccer World Cup." Journa[ofSports Economics. no. 9 (200S): 20-42. 19 teams win. A country who wins a world cup can bring more demand for game day attendance.
The study on hockey shows that fans would rather see a game if they know their team has a better chance of winning, whereas in football and baseball it is evident that if a team is expected to win all the time the attendance will drop because fans want to see uncertainty in games. It is evident that fans love to see their team win, however, fans also want uncertainty so if a team is expected to win every game then they will not have as high of an attendance rating as a team who has a high winning percentage with some uncertainty.
Violence
Americans seem to have a taste for violence. In the National Hockey League, fighting has always been a big part ofthe game. The question becomes does violence impact attendance in both American and Canadian cities? Several studies have looked at this factor to see how violence affects attendance.
The first study looks at violence in hockey. Jones, Stewart, and Sunderman (1996) examine how violence affects game attendance in the National Hockey League in the 1989-1990 season. They hypothesize that there is a positive relationship between violence and game day attendance in the National Hockey League.27 Their data confirms their hypothesis that there is a significant positive relationship between violence and game attendance; however the positive relationship occurs significantly in American cities and less significantly in Canadian Cities.
From this study they suggest that Canadian cities tend to have an appreciation for the game of hockey and the skill required to play. Violence is only a small reason why fans attend the game.
In American cities fighting is a big reason why fans go to games and due to rules and
27 Jones, J.C.H, Stewart K.G, and Sundennan R .. "From the Arena into the Street: Hockey Violence, Economic Incentives and Public Policy." American Journal a/Economics and Sociology. no. 55 (1996): 231-243. 20 regulations, fighting is not expected to stop anytime soon. The reason for this is that the team itself does not get into trouble for fighting. According to the Rules for the 2008-2009 season, rule
47 states that a five minute major penalty will be imposed on anyone who fights. After
28 someone's third fight, they will be suspended for two games. It is not unless there is a team fight or a serious misconduct, like not going straight to the penalty box after a fight, when fines are given out. So Jones, Stewart, and Sunderman (1996) state that from their results fighting does have a significant positive impact on attendance in American cities, and fighting will not stop unless the rules and regulations start to affect the team instead of just the player/players who fight. The next study will looks at fighting in the NHL. This study, just like the one done by
Jones, Stewart, and Sunderman (1996) also looks at the affect that fighting have on attendance in
American and Canadian cities.
Jones, Ferguson, and Stewart (1993) agree with the previous study that fans have an appreciation for fighting. They also support Jones et al (1996) results that fighting will positively affect attendance. They look at the economics of violence in the NHL and the impact that it has on attendance. They believe that 1) hockey fans have a taste for violence, so game attendance and violence are positively related, and 2) the more extreme degrees of violence are positively associated with American attendance not Canadian attendance. 29 The results show that there is a significant positive relationship between violence and attendance for games played in both
American and Canadian cities. They also find that American cities have a significant relationship of extreme violence and fighting. Although there was a significant relationship of fighting in
Canadian cities, the relationship was negatively significant for extreme violence in Canadian
28 "2008-2009 Official Rule Book." The National Hockey League 2008. A vailable from http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=26336. Internet; accessed 16 November 2008.
29 Ferguson, D.G, Jones lC. H., and Stewart K.G .. "Blood Sports and Cherry Pie: Some Economics of Violence in the National Hockey League." American Journal a/Economics and Sociology. no. 51 (1993): 21
cities. The last study also looks at fighting in the NHL and also believes that Americans have a
greater appreciation for fighting than Canadians; however, both American and Canadian teams
will see an increase in attendance if there are more fights.
The first two studies agreed that fighting will improve attendance in the NHL and the
following study is yet another study that suggests fighting is a major part of the sport of hockey
as well as a major part in bringing fans to the game. Paul (2003) examines variations in the NHL
to find out what factors affect attendance in the NHL for each individual game. His data shows that teams who fight more often draw more fans to their games. Although this was a positive coefficient for all teams in the league, the American teams showed a higher coefficient than
Canadian teams meaning that fighting has a bigger impact on attendance for American fans than for Canadian fans. 3o All of these studies show the importance that fighting has on attendance in the NHL especially in American cities.
The previous studies all looked at violence and fighting in the National Hockey League and the effects that fighting has on attendance. All three articles find that fighting does in fact positively affect attendance; however, Canadian cities have a smaller appreciation for violence.
American fans love fighting as a whole whether it is a single man fight or the whole team.
Fighting and violence in general has been suggested to help attendance in the National Hockey
League and the rules and regulations support fighting. However, extreme degrees of fighting cause attendance to drop in both American cities and Canadian cities. So although fighting helps increase attendance ratings for the NHL, too much fighting can hurt attendance ratings.
All stars and superstars
30 Rodney, Paul J .. "Variation in NHL Attendance: The Impact of Violence, Scoring and Regionalregional rivalries-discrimination and the NHL ." The American Journal/or Economics and Sociology, (2003): 22
Many professional teams have superstars on their team. There are also teams who do not
have superstars. Superstars and all stars are players who dominate the sport that they play. They
are the best at what they do compared to anyone else they play. Superstars are also a positive to
have on a team because they can help bring fans to games. Several studies have examined the
impacts of all-stars and superstars on attendance.
The first study looks at how superstars affect attendance in the National Basketball
Association. Hausman and Leonard (1997) look at super stars in the National Basketball
Association through economic value and policy. They hypothesize that superstars will generate more revenue on television than non superstars. Their results support the hypothesis and they conclude that superstars not only generate revenue for their own team, but for the other teams they playas well. 31 It is estimated that the value of Michael Jordan compared to other players in the National Basketball Association'is around $53 million. This means that not only did Michael
Jordon create revenue for the Chicago Bulls, but he created revenue for the other teams that were playing the Chicago Bulls as well due to the amount of fans that wanted to watch him play. The next study takes a different approach to all-stars, but also suggests that all-stars impact attendance in a positive way.
Brandes, Franck, and Niesch (2008) look at how local and nation-wide all-stars attract fans to their games. This study takes a different approach but agrees with Hausman and Leonard
(1997) that all-stars attract fans and improves attendance. They examine all-stars' talent and how it affects attendance during a soccer game. They believe that it is controversial that an all-star's superiority or popularity can drive match attendance and increase revenue for a team. They test their hypothesis by using longitudinal match attendance data over a period of nine years. Their
31 Hausman, Jerry A., and Leonard Gregory K .. "Superstars in the National Basketball Association: Economic Value and Policy." Journal a/Labor Economics, no. 15 (1997): 23 results show that star attraction is seen at home games and road games. They also find that local hero's attract fans; however, they tend to only attract fans to their home games and not road games. 32 From their results Brandes, Franck, and Niesch (2008) conclude that superstars do attract fans to their games by their outstanding performance and local heroes attract fans from popularity and not by their skill level.
Both of these studies look at how superstars affect demand and their results are similar. In the two studies they find that fans want to watch superstars whether the superstars are on the home team or the away team. The second study looks at soccer and finds that there is a difference between a local superstar and a superstar that is known nationwide. Teams that have more superstars will generate more attendance at games compared to teams who do not have any superstars.
New Facilities
New stadiums cost millions, or even billions of dollars to make. The New York Yankee's stadium cost $1.3 billion to make. 33 The Yankees paid approximately $1.1 billion and the rest of the costs will be paid off by public financing. 34 The question becomes do new stadiums bring in more revenue and attract more fans to games? There are several studies that examine the effects of new facilities on attendance in sporting events.
32 Brandes, Leif, Franck Egon, and Nuesch Stephan. "Local Heroes and Superstars: An Emprical Analysis of Star Attraction in German Soccer." Journal o/Sports Economics. no. 9 (2008): 266-286.
33 Munsey and suppes, "New Yankee Stadium." Ticket Triangle. Available from. Internet; accessed 11 November 2008.
34 Munsey and suppes, "New Yankee Stadium." Ticket Triangle. Available from. Internet; accessed 11 November 2008. 24
One study that looks at new facilities on attendance finds that the incredibly high cost for a new stadium might not really be worth it. Coates and Humphreys (2005) look at what is known as the novelty effect on new facilities and attendance in professional sports. A novelty effect from the view of a new stadium can be defined as an improved interest in a team due to a new stadium or new technology.35 Fans do not always go to a game just to watch their team play.
Sometimes fans are drawn to a game because of the new stadium. Coates and Humphreys (2005) test the novelty effect of new stadiums on attendance in the National Football League from 1969 to 2001. Their hypothesis is that older facilities draw fewer fans than newer facilities. Their results show that newer facilities have little effect on football attendance. Teams sell 137,792 more tickets in the first five years compared to baseball's 2,500,794 for an eight year period and basketballs 293,878 for nine years.36 The conclusion that Coates and Humphreys come to is that stadium subsidies are an inefficient method of subsidizing professional sports franchises. The benefits from building a new stadium tend to be captured by the franchises only. The results show that there is a small significant increase in attendance from building a new stadium; however, the dynamics of a novelty effect are not very strong at all. The next study looks at the honeymoon affect in Major League Baseball.
This study by Zygmont and Leadley (2005) looks at the honeymoon affect in Major League
Baseball. The honeymoon affect is similar to the novelty affect that was looked at in the previous study by Coates and Humphreys (2005). The revenue from the honeymoon affect does not bring in enough money to payoff the actual costs of the ballpark. Zygmont and Leadley (2005) look
35 Coates, Dennis, and Humphreys, Brad. "Novelty effects of New Facilities on Attendance at Professional Sporting Events." EconPapers, no. 03
36 Coates, Dennis, and Humphreys Brad R .. "Novelty Effects of New Facilities on Attendance at Professinoal Sporting Events." Contemporary Economic Policy, no. 23 (2005): 436-455. 25 at the honeymoon affect and they expand on existing attendance demand literature by incorporating a theoretical model of attendance and price in Major League Baseball. They hypothesize that over time the novelty of a facility wears off and a decline in attendance begins.
They use a set of panel data from 1970 to 2000. They conclude that new baseball-only parks will generate an additional $228 million in ticket revenue for fifteen years. Although this is less than the cost of building the stadium, there may be other revenue sources that may be sufficient to eliminate the need for public subsidies.37 Overall, attendance generated from creating a new stadium will not be enough to pay for the cost of the stadium. Building new stadiums does bring in extra attendance; however, in order to pay for the stadium other sources of revenue need to be taken into account because attendance alone will not be enough.
Zygmont and Leadley (2006) also concluded another honeymoon effect study. This study looks at the honeymoon affect in NHL arenas. The study agrees with the previous study because they believe that a new facility will cause an increase in attendance at first but, it will not be enough to payoff the cost of the new building. They estimate that the opening of a new arena will increase attendance demand fifteen to twenty percent in the first year of opening, and that the honeymoon effect is over after five years. 38Their paper uses a Tobit analysis to test for a honeymoon effect using pooled cross-section time series samples from the 1970 season to the
2003 season right before the lockout. A pooled cross section times series sample is a data base that provides multivariate statistical history for each number of individual entities.39 They make
37 Leadley, John c., and Zygmont Zenon X .. "When is the Honeymoon Over? Major League Baseball Attendance, 1970-2003." Journal a/Sport Management, no. 19 (2005): 278-299.
38 Leadley, John, and Zygmont Zenon X .. "When Is the Honeymoon Over? National Hockey League Attendance, 1970~2003." Canadian Public Policy, no. 32 (2006): 213-232.
39 Dielman, Terry. "Pooled Cross-Sectional and Time Series Data: A survery of Current Statistical Methods." The American Statistician, no. 37 (1983): 111-122.) 26 their hypothesis due to past research done on the honeymoon effect in other sports such as MLB and the NBA. During the period 1994-2003, twenty one new arenas were built and the honeymoon effect was extended to eight years. They believe that the affect on attendance will not be as large as it seems due to the capacity size of arenas. From their research they find that new NHL arenas feel the honeymoon effect for eight years which is equivalent to new Baseball only parks.
From these studies, it is evident that attendance is affected by new stadiums; however, it is not a long term affect. In fact the increase in attendance from building a new facility does not even create enough revenue to pay for the facility itself even with all of the public subsidies. So even though attendance does initially increase attendance, the novelty effect wears off with time and franchises are left with finding new ways to create revenue in order to pay for the new facility and break even.
Discrimination
Discrimination has been around for a very long time; and to this day discrimination is still seen in sports. Today there are many different races that play sports; however, there was a time when races did not mix. Jackie Robinson, the first African American baseball player to play on an all white team and league, is just one person to show the struggles that have come about in changing the rules of sports. A few studies look at discrimination in sports and how they affect attendance in the past and present.
This first study looks at discrimination in the MLB in the 1970's. Scully (1973) looks at player discrimination in Major League Baseball from a positional standpoint to determine whether discrimination affects attendance or not. Scully (1973) hypothesizes that it is in the best 27 interest of the teams to keep black players out of important leadership positions. He also believes that black players have to be better to stay and play on professional sports teams. Two equations are formulated to test for discrimination in Major League Baseball and their results show that attendance does decrease when black players are on a team. Discrimination has been in sports since they were first integrated. The exact impact is hard to measure but Scully (1973) presents a model that helps to explain the affect of black players on the revenue of a team. For a 1% increase in black players, there was a decrease in revenue of $38,000.40 This study looks at how baseball was affected by African American baseball players in the 1970's. Although this study was conducted almost forty years ago there is still discrimination in sports to this day and this will be shown in a more recent study that shows discrimination in the National Basketball
Association.
Burdekin and Idson (1991) support Scully's (1973) results that there is discrimination in sports. The authors come to a different conclusion because Burdekin and Idson (1991) believe that discrimination is seen in all races and not in just one. Burdekin and Idson (1991) look at player discrimination on attendance in the NBA. They believe that fans will prefer to see players of their own race. Taking data from the 1980/1981-198511986 seasons, they find that racial discrimination is evident. Discrimination is evident in two forms; firstly, discrimination comes from the ethnicity of the town and secondly, predominantly white fans prefer to see white players while predominantly black fans want to watch black players. 41 This impacts attendance tremendously because if a team is predominantly of one race than the fan base will be
40 Scully, Gerald. "Economic Discrimination in Professional Sports." Law and Contemporary Problems, no. 38 (1973):
41 Burdekin, Richard, and Idson, Todd. "Customer preferences, attendance, and the racial structure of professional basketball teams." Applied economics, no. 23 (1991): 179-186. 28 predominantly of one race. Their results show that discrimination hurts attendance in the NBA which also ends up hurting revenue. The next study shows a positive affect that discrimination can have on attendance.
The next study looks at discrimination in the English Premier League. Unlike the first two studies on discrimination Pedace (2008) shows that having a certain race of athletes can add more fans to games. Pedace (2008) tests the existence of nationality discrimination in the English
Premier League. He believes that holding salaries constant, there would be a positive association between team success and the number of players having "non desirable" nationality characteristics. 42 Players from Scandinavia, Northern Europe, Southern Europe, and South
America are considered strong players to bring in higher attendance revenue. Although some studies on discrimination look at wages earned, Pedace believes that this is not an accurate way to test for discrimination in the English Premier League. Pedace obtains his results from using a market test to determine if there is discrimination from the years 1997-2002. His results show that players from South America may receive preferential labor market treatment. This data is only evident in the English Premier League. From the data in the study he concludes that owners see an increase in attendance with a larger percent of South American soccer players on their team than without any South American athletes at all.
Discrimination has been around for a long time. Although discrimination is normally seen as a bad thing, some discrimination in past studies has shown to have a significant impact on the increase in attendance in sporting events. From the studies looked at, discrimination is clearly evident in baseball, soccer, and basketball; however, only in one of these sports do we see a positive side of discrimination on attendance. Baseball and basketball
42 Pedace, Roberto. "Earnings, Performance, and Nationality Discrimination in a Highly Competitive Labor Market: An Analysis of the English Professional Soccer League." Journal a/Sports Economics, no. 9 (2008): 115-140. 29 find results that fans do not want to see blacks in a leadership role. They also find out that fans prefer to watch players of their own race instead of someone of a different color. The English
Premier League shows that attendance jumps when fans see a South American soccer player on their team. South American players tend to not only attract fans from the home team, but from the away team as well much like how all stars and superstars attract fans from both teams playing. The owners are the ones who see the benefit from having a South American athlete on the team. So although discrimination has shown to have a negative impact on attendance, the
English Premier League shows a positive form of discrimination by a South American race attracting fans of all races.
Conclusion
"We can't control wins and losses, but we can create a great atmosphere. That is the challenge - to get our sales in business up to the usual level (of other NHL clubs), to 60-40 or even 75-25. Right now, we're not even above 50 per cent in business-based attendance.,,43 Before the lockout, attendance started to decrease and teams were having a hard time making ends meet when it came to expenses. Teams cannot always count on winning in order to attract fans to their games so they rely on what they can control. Teams like the Nashville Predators were struggling to even sell fifty percent of their available seating for games.
The studies reviewed look at different factors that affect game attendance. Location overall tends to help attendance. When teams are in a good location they will have better attendance; however, if a team needs to relocate in order to gain more attendance the short-run impacts of moving can hurt attendance until the franchise has been there for a few years.
43 Diller, Jack. "The 2002 Hockey Quotes of the Year." About.com. Available from http://proicehockey.about.com/od/musicfilmcardstriviaJaJ02hockey~quotes~2.htm. Internet; accessed 1 April 2009. 30
Competitive balance and winning percentage significantly can determine the outcome of fans at a game. If a team is not expected to win a game, attendance will drop, if a team is expected to win a game than attendance will also drop. Fans want uncertainty when watching a game so the more competitive a league is, the better the attendance ratings will be as a whole for the league. Violence has been proven to help attendance in hockey; however, in Canada extreme degrees of fighting attracts fewer fans to the game because they would rather watch hockey than a boxing match on ice. All stars and Superstars attract fans to games through extraordinary performance. Local superstars only attract fans from the home team and they tend to attract them based off of popularity. On the other hand nationally known superstars attract fans from both the home team and the away team and they are known for their skill level and performance on the field, rink, or court. New facilities are extremely expensive and often require public financing in order to help pay for the building. New facilities tend to increase attendance due to the novelty effect or the honeymoon affect. After time these wear off and attendance goes back to normal.
The amount of increase in attendance does not normally pay for the price of the new facility so in the long run attendance wears off and the new facility is not paid off. Discrimination is the last factor looked at. Discrimination is generally always seen as a bad thing and in sports discrimination is also considered bad except in the English Premier League where fans of every race and color want to watch South Americans play soccer.
There have been many studies done on what factors affect pre lockout attendance in the
NHL but there have not been many studies done on post lockout attendance. This thesis will help determine what factors affect NHL attendance post lockout which will help close the gap of research that has not been studied. This thesis has many similarities to pre lockout studies, but due to the many changes in the game and the rules, this post lockout thesis is examining if there 31 are different factors that affect attendance. One of these factors may be the salary cap which may change competitive balance due to fact that franchises with a lot of money are no longer able to buy any player they want anymore. Another new area of research is how fans react to the new rules and whether it makes the game more interesting for them. It is a wonder why hockey is not as popular as any other big time sports teams like football, baseball, and basketball but with more research the NHL can better prepare itself on how to run an efficient franchise in order to make maximum profits and increase game day attendance. The previous studies give excellent insight on factors that affect attendance. The next chapter will explain the methodology behind what factors affect game day attendance since the 2004-2005 season ending lockout in the National
Hockey League. CHAPTER III
METHODOLOGY
The purpose of this chapter is to show the methodology that is used to determine what factors affect attendance in the National Hockey League. The type of research done is quantitative research. Quantitative research is scientific research of certain properties and their relationships. The objective of quantitative research is to use mathematical models and theories and come up with a conclusion about the relationship between variables. First this chapter will go over the data set that is used in the regression analysis along with how the data was obtained.
This section will also explain the dependent variable as well as the independent variables that were used in the regression analysis. The data will be taken from all thirty hockey teams in the league.
Data Set
There are thirty teams in the National Hockey League and these teams are split up into two different conferences and six different divisions. The two conferences that the teams are split up into are the Eastern conference and the Western conference. From the two conferences, the teams are split up into six divisions. Each conference has three divisions. In the Eastern conference there is the Atlantic, Northeast, and Southeast divisions while the western conference consists of the Central, Northwest, and Pacific divisions. In order for a team to make the playoffs they must finish in the top eight of their conference. One conference can be more competitive than another
32 33 conference depending on the teams in the conference and how well each of the teams are doing.
For example, the Western conference may have their 8th place team at seventy points while the
Eastern conference may only have their 8th place team at sixty points. The point system goes as follows: two points for a win either in regulation time, overtime, or a shootout. One point is awarded for a tie or loss in a shootout and no points are given to a team who loses the game in regulation. Table 3.1 shows the thirty NHL teams as well as their conference and divisions.
TABLE 3.1
TEAMS IN THE NATIONAL HOCKEY LEAGUE
Eastern Conference Western Conference
Atlantic Division Central Division
New Jersey Devils Chicago Blackhawks
New York Rangers Columbus Blue Jackets
New York Islanders Detroit Red Wings
Philadelphia Flyers Nashville Predators
Pittsburgh Penguins St. Louis Blues
Northeast Division Northwest Division
Boston Bruins Calgary Flames
Buffalo Sabres Colorado Avalanche 34
Montreal Canadiens Edmonton Oilers
Ottawa Senators Minnesota Wild
Toronto Maple Leafs Vancouver Canucks
Southeast Division Pacific Division
Atlanta Thrashers Anaheim Ducks
Carolina Hurricanes Dallas Stars
Florida Panthers Los Angeles Kings
Tampa Bay Lightning Phoenix Coyotes
Washington Capitals San Jose Sharks
--
Data receivedjrom NHL.com44
The data that is required for running the regression equation was available mainly at
NHL.com for all thirty of the teams. Other data was found from ESPN.COM as well as versus. com. The data was collected from the regular season play (eighty two games) since the lockout in 2004-2005 to the 2007-2008 season. The purpose of the regression will be to test the dependent variable and the effects that other variables have on it.
Dependent Variable
In this regression, the dependent variable will be attendance during the 2005-2008 regular season games. There are eighty two games in a regular hockey season and every team plays forty
44 National Hockey League. "Standings." NHL.com Available from http://www.nhl.comlice/standings.htm?navid=NA VISTNIMain.lntemet;accessed August 2008. 35 one home games. Since every rink holds a different amount of people, attendance will be calculated as a percentage opposed to just using the numbers of people who attend the game at each rink. Calculating attendance as a percentage on a scale from zero percent to one hundred percent will allow for all the rinks to be compared on a constant level. Attendance will be impacted by different variables which are also known as the independent variables.
Independent Variables
There are many independent variables that are hypothesized to affect attendance. An independent variable is a variable that determines the value of another variable. The independent variables are taken from team statistics, individual talents, and city demographics. Based on previous research, the independent variables are hypothesized to have some sort of positive or negative effect on the dependent variable. Table 3.2 shows the independent variables as well as where their information was found.
TABLE 3.2
INDEPENDENT VARIABLE SUMMARY
Variable Variable Definition Source
Abbreviation Name
GS Goals Scored Goals scored during regular season for NHL.com each team
P Points Points will be the final points for wins, NHL.com ties, and loses, two for a win, one for a tie, and zero for a loss.
Win% Winning The amount of wins a team has per NHL.com Percentage season compared to how many games a team has played 36
CB Competitive The uncertainty or certainty of a leagues NHL.com and Balance competitiveness equation
GP Games Played The amount of games played during a NHL.com regular season
LOC Location Whether the team is from a northern or NHL.com southern location
Alstr All stars A player who is picked to participate in NHL.com the all star game for that particular year
Plyof Play offs A team will get a point if they have made Versus. com the playoffs the year before
wkd Weekend If a game is a weekend game than it will NHL.com have been played on a weekend which is games Saturday or Sunday
Maj/fgt Majors/fights Five minutes in the box for a fight or NHL.com violent move
mmor Minor Two minute penalty for a minor rule NHL.com breaking. penalties
Table 3.3 shows the predicted outcome of the independent variables on attendance which will then be further discussed further in this chapter. A positive coefficient means that the independent variable will positively affect attendance and a negative coefficient means that the independent variable will negatively atTect attendance.
TABLE 3.3
PREDICTED VALUE OF THE INDEPENDENT VARIABLES
Variable Predicted Outcome
goals + 37
Points +
Winning percentage + and-
Competitive balance + and-
All-stars +
Play offs +
Location -
-- Weekend games +
Games played -
Majors/fights +
Minor penalties +
The following sections will go further into depth about the independent variables and how they are predicted to affect the dependent variable. A definition of the independent variable will be given as well as where the information was found.
Goals Scored
Goals scored are defined as how many goals are scored by a team in a single season. A goal is achieved when the entire puok crosses the goal line and enters the net. A player cannot deliberately kick it in or bat it in with a glove, although a goal is allowed when a puck deflects off a player (but not off an official).45 The data for goals scored will be found at NHL.com for all three of the regular seasons. From past research, the more goals that are scored in a game/season,
45Davidson, John, and Steinbreder, John. Hockey For Dummies. Foster City: lOG Books Worldwide, 1997. 38 the more fans that a team will have at their games. 46 The NHL franchise wanted to increase scoring after the lockout and in an attempt to do so they changed the rules. As the figure 1.2 depicted in chapter one, there was an increase in scoring in the NHL after the lockout; however, the regression will investigate whether the increase in scoring has an effect on attendance and whether the effect is positive or negative.
Points
Points will be defined as the total number of points awarded to a team throughout the regular season. A team will receive two points for a win in regulation time, overtime, and shootout. One point will be awarded to a team who ties after regulation time and either loses in overtime or a shootout. If a game is tied after regulation time, than a five minute over time will be played with only four skaters on the ice opposed to five skaters. If the game is still tied after the overtime than the game will go into a shootout, which is when each team will choose three players to go in on a breakaway and try to score on the goaltender. In the case of a tie after the first three rounds, each team will choose another skater to shoot until one team scores and the other does not. Lastly, zero points will be awarded for a team who loses in regulation time.
Points will be found at nhl.com
Winning Percentage
Winning percentage is the percentage of games that a team wins over a single season.
This was be found by calculating the amount of wins a team has divided by their total amount of games played multiplied by one hundred to get the percentage.
Winning Percentage =- (Games won / Games played) x 100%
46 Rodney, Paul J .. "Variation in NHL Attendance: The Impact of Violence, Scoring and Regionalregional rivalries discrimination and the NHL ." The American Journal for Economics and Sociology, (2003): 39
For example, if a team wins forty one games and there are eighty two games in a season then the team will have a fifty percent winning percentage. The affects of winning percentage on attendance, in theory, will be positive if a team has a winning season and negative if they have a losing season. Although fans want to see their team win, attendance will also decrease if the outcome of a game is known for example if a team is expected to win or lose fans might not attend the game.
Competitive Balance
Competitive balance refers to the relative quality of teams in a league that makes the outcome of the game unpredictable, and variations in team success that makes the outcome of the league unpredictable.47 There are many ways to calculate competitive balance, but for the purpose of this analysis, the formula used is the within season standard deviations of win percentages. Standard deviation is a statistic that describes the average distance that observations lie from the mean of the observations in the single data set. The larger the standard deviation, the greater the dispersion of winning percentages and the less balance there is in the league. 48
Competitive balance was found from a calculation and data from NHL.com. The calculation is as follows:
When competitive balance is close, then the league will be more competitive leaving uncertainty in the game. The uncertainty is hypothesized to bring more fans to a game whereas when a
47 Grant, Meryn, pg 6Competite balance in the national hockey league after the salary cap. 2008.
48 Michael A. Leeds and Peter Von Allmen, The Economics of sports (Boston: Pearson Addison Wesley, 2005), 158.
49 Weisstein, Eric W. "Standard Deviation." From MathWorld--A Wolfram Web Resource. http://mathworld.wolfram.com/StandardDeviation .htm I 40 league is less competitive, the attendance will go down because fans will have a better idea of who will win the game. 50
All-stars
An all-star is someone who is highly skilled and normally leads a team or league in points, goals, assists, or saves. A few examples of all-stars are Sidney Crosby, Martin Brodeur, and Jonathan Toews. These are a few athletes who have competed in the all-star games. All-stars were calculated by looking at players who played in the all-star game for that currant year. This data was calculated by giving one point for every player on a team that attended the all-star game. The data was found on NHL.com for all three seasons. From research in chapter two, it is evident that fans will want to watch a team who has more all-stars on it than a team without all- stars. This is also true for a home team or an away team because fans want to see all-stars no matter who they play for because the player is exciting to watch. All-stars are known for their
5 skills (also known as "dangling"). Dangling is someone with awesome stick handling ability. I
The more skills a player has, the more they will be able to create plays or make big saves. The more scoring chances there are, and the better the saves are, the more exciting the game will be for fans to watch which will increase· the attendance ratings.
Location
Location is where the team plays their games. This is also known as their home rink. The more northern teams are known more for their hockey than the southern teams. 52 The data will
50 Welki, Andrew, and Zlatoper Thomas. "US Professinoal Football: The Demand for Game Day Attendance in 1991." Managerial and Decision Economics, no. 15 (1994): 489-495.
51 "Hockey Terms." Street Hockey King. Available from http://www.streethockeyking.comihockeyterms.html. Internet; accessed 25 March 2009.
52 Weidecke, Jennifer. "affecting attendance in the National Hockey League: A multiple regression model." Master's thesis, University of North Carolina Chapel Hills, (1999): 41 be found by looking at the team's location. If the teams are in northern U.S or Canada they will be in the north and given a one and if the team is in the south than they will be a southern team and given a zero. Location will be a dummy variable. A dummy variable is a numerical variable used in regression analysis to represent subgroups of the sample in a study. In research design, a dummy variable is often used to distinguish different groups53. In this study, a group was given a one if they fit the northern category and if they do not fit the northern location, a zero was given.
This data was found by looking at the teams in the league and then by looking at a map to distinguish if they were located in the southern part of the United States. The Canadian teams will all be given Northern locations and will not be used as part of the measurement for North and South, the dividing will only look at American teams. This is because there are mostly
American teams and only six Canadian teams. It is believed that Northern teams will attract more fans to their games because there are more Canadian players in the NHL than from any other country which will attract more fans, and also because it is colder up North allowing for more time for people to play hockey inside as well as outside.
Games Played
Games played are very self explanatory; games played are the number of games played by one team, in a regular season. Play-offs are not included. All teams have the same number of games played which is a standard 82 games. This information can be found at any hockey site such as; espn.com, nhl.com, and versUS.com. Games played are hypothesized to have a negative effect on attendance. The reason for this is due to the large amount of games that are played in a regular NHL season. In the National Football League there are only sixteen games played in a regular season which means that fans have less time to watch their team play than in the National
53 Trochim, William M.K. "Dummy Variables." Research Methods Knowledge Base. Available from http://www.socialresearchmethods.netlkb/dummyvar.php. Internet; accessed I February 2009. 42
Hockey League. Fans are less willing to miss a game if there are less, but it is not so hard to miss a game when there are eighty- two to go to in a single season.
Play- offs
The NHL playoffs start with sixteen teams. Eight teams are taken from the Western conference and eight teams are taken from the Eastern conference to play in the NHL playoffs.
The playoffs start with matching up the first ranked team with the 8th ranked team of each conference. The teams play up to seven games, or until one team wins four games. The data was taken from NHL.com but can also be found at versus.com. Play-off games were another dummy variable and they were calculated by giving the team a one if they made the playoffs that year and a zero if they did not make the playoffs. If a team is better than most teams they will probably make the playoffs due to having more wins and overall points. So it is assumed that a team who makes the playoffs will attract more fans to their games than a team who does not make the playoffs.
Weekend Games
Weekend games are games that are played on the weekend. The weekend will consist of
Saturday and Sunday games. Friday night games will not be included in weekend games. Many people work during the week and have a hard time making it to games because of work. Saturday and Sunday games give these fans the chance to make it to a game without having to miss a day of work. NHL.com supplies schedules of every team for the past three years which was used to find out what games have been played on weekends. For every game that has been played on a weekend the team will get one point. Having games on weekends allows more people to be able to attend the game so it is hypothesized that having a weekend game will have a positive effect on attendance. 43
MajorslFighting
Majors are penalties that last for five minutes. When a player is awarded a major penalty they have to stay in the penalty box for the whole five minutes even if the other team scores. In a minor two minute penalty, once the other team scores, a player is allowed to come out of the box even if their time is not up. The biggest reason why five minutes majors are given is due to fighting; however, severe degrees of violence will cause a major as well. Some examples of these severe degrees of violence are hitting a player with their stick and drawing blood as well as a violent slash. A slash is when the player takes their stick and hits another player in their arm. In many studies, fighting has been known to increase attendance in the NHL. Fans have a great appreciation of fighting except for when the fighting gets out of control and extremely violent that many Canadian cities get turned away. When the level of fighting gets severe many
Canadian fans will not want to attend the game. 54 Severe degrees of fighting are considered more than two fights per period. Fighting was found at NHL.com under major penalty minutes. For this data only major penalties will be used instead of majors and minors because minor penalties do not indicate an act of violence. As seen in other studies, it is believed that attendance will increase with the more fights a team has. If a fan knows a team will be more willing to fight in a game they will want to go to the game more than if they did not think there was going to be a fight. The only time when fighting will have a negative impact on attendance is when the fights get extremely violent and then fighting will have the opposite effect of attendance.
Minor Penalties
54 Jones, J.e.H, Stewart K.G, and Sundennan R .. "From the Arena into the Street: Hockey Violence, Economic Incentives and Public Policy." American Journal of Economics and Sociology. no. 55 (1996): 231-243. 44
Minor penalties are small breakings of the rules. Some examples of minor penalties are; boarding, butt ending, charging, cross checking, delay of game, elbowing, holding, hooking, interference, kneeing, slashing, spearing, and tripping. 55 These are not serious penalties and most often can be seen as an accident. These actions are not direct actions to hurt another player. If a player receives a minor penalty then they will be put into the penalty box for two minutes. In these two minutes if the other team is able to score then the penalty ends early and the player who served the penalty is able to go back onto the ice for more five on five hockey. Minor penalties were found at NHL.com along with major penalties. It is hypothesized that minor penalties will help attendance because as seen in figure 1.2, scoring increased significantly on the power play since the lockout. Fans want to see more goals and if there are more minors than it can be hypothesized that there will be more goals; however, too many minors will disrupt the flow of the game and some fans will lose interest. So just like with majors a few minors will help attendance; however excessive amounts of minor penalties will have a negative effect on attendance. Minor penalties will be considered by finding the average number of penalty minutes in a game and any team who has more than the average will be considered to have excessive penalty minutes.
Based on other research, an empirical model was developed in order to test the hypothesis. The hypothesis that is being tested is that attendance has been positively affected since the lockout due to some of the rule changes. The independent variables listed above are the variables that are believed to have a significant impact on attendance at hockey games. Model
3.1 is the empirical model that was used to test the affects of game variables on attendance in the
NHL.
55 Davidson, John, and Steinbreder, John. Hockey For Dummies. Foster City: IDG Books Worldwide, 1997. 45
MODEL 3.1
Attendance= BO + BIG + B2P +B3W% + B4CB + B5GP + B6LOC + B7Alstr +B8PlyoJ
+ B9wkd + BIOMAJIFGT + BIIMINOR
In this chapter, the dependent, independent, and dummy variables were explained as well as a full detail of the data set to be used. In the next chapter, model 3.1 will be tested in order to find out which independent variables affect attendance with some sort of significance. The next chapter discusses the results of the regression analysis to explain the importance of the independent variables. CHAPTER IV
RESULTS
This chapter will discuss the results based on the variables described in the previous
chapter. The data has been analyzed by using attendance as the dependent variable. Model 4.1
shows the Attendance equation that was tested against multiple independent and dummy
variables that were thought to have a significant impact on attendance in the National Hockey
League. Table 4.1 shows the summary statistics of the variables and model 4.2 shows the regression results as well as the level of significance for each variable.
The model below is the final equation used for the regression. There are thirteen variables used in the regression equation. The variables that are subtracted are variables that are believed to have a negative effect on attendance. Games played have been taken out from the original equation because every team plays eighty two regular season games. There is no differentiation between teams so games played are not an accurate determination of attendance.
MODEL 4.1
Attendance= Bo + Bi Goals Scored + B2 Total Points - B3 Winning Percent +B4 Competitive Balance + B5 Minors +B6 Majors + B7All-stars +BB Play-Offs +B9 Weekend Games +BJO Location
Summary Statistics
Table 4.1 displays the mean, standard deviation, minimum, and maximum values for each variable that had been used in the study. The arithmetic mean of a set of values is the
46 47
quantity commonly called "the" mean or the average. Given a set of samples h, I, the arithmetic mean IS
The standard deviation that will be used is the season standard deviations of win
percentages. This type of standard deviation is also known as a population standard deviation.
The population standard deviation (often represented by the Greek letter sigma) measures the
variability of data in a population. It is usually an unknown constant. The formula is:
The minimum and maximum are the lowest number for each variable and the maximum will be the greatest number for each variable. Below are the summary statistics.
56 Weisstein, Eric W. "Arithmetic Mean." From MathWorld--A Wolfram Web Resource. http://mathworld.wolfram.com/ArithmeticMean.html
57 Weisstein, Eric W. "Standard Deviation." From MathWorld--A Wolfram Web Resource. http://mathworld.wolfram.com!StandardDeviation .htm I 48
TABLE 4.1
SUMMARY STATISTICS
Mean Standard Minimum Maximum Deviation
Attendance % 91.67 8.035 66.4 112.7
Goals Scored 240.9 26.29 193 314
Total Points 91.27 14.47 56 12
Minors 452.2 71.36 318 619
Majors 36.87 13.63 7 71
Winning Percent 49.58 9.503 .2682 .7073
Competitive .2008 .1853 .00029118 .004564 balance All-stars 1.422 .7340 0 4
Play offs .5333 .5017 0 1
Weekend Games 27.24 2.931 23 37
Location .5667 .4983 0 1
Goals Against 240.9 29.65 184 316
~---
58 Lekulana Kolobe Last edited by Lekulana Kolobe on Feb 22, 2006 6:41 am US/Central. What is R-Squared? http://cnx.orglcontent/mI3447/latestl connexions
59 Hennekens, C. H., I:..pidemiology in Medicine. Boston: Little, Brown and Co., 1987. 49
Table 4.2 shows the regression results for all the variables that were tested. The t-stats are recorded in parentheses and will be listed at every confidence level. The F-stat and R-squared are also listed in the chart. An r-squared of 1.0 (100%) indicates a perfect fit. R squared is a statistical measure of how well a regression line approximates real data points. R squared is a descriptive measure between zero and one, indicating how good one term is at predicting another. 58 The F-statistic is a value resulting from a standard statistical test used in analysis of variation or otherwise known as ANOVA and regression analysis to determine if the variances between the means of two populations are significantly difTerent. 59 Below are the numbers for the regression.
TABLE 4.2
REGRESSION ANAL YSIS RESULTS (T- STATISTICS RECORDED IN PARENTHESES)
Variables Equation 1
Goals Scored .06123 (2.07) Total Points -.02447 ( -.31) Minors -.03337 ( -2.48)
Majors -.25529 (-4.70) Winning Percent -11.63 ( -.90)
Competitive Balance 752.6 ( 1.49)
Location 3.587 (2.38) 50
All-Stars -.044 (-.04)
Play-offs 1.155 (.81 )
Weekend Games .0072 (.03)
--_. R-squared .40
F -statistics 5.28
* Significance at the 99% confidence level (t-stat > 2.576)
** Significance at 95% confidence level (t-stat > 1. 96)
*** Significance at 90% confidence level (t-stat > 1.653)
The data set for the regression included 90 observations covering a time period of three hockey seasons. In the next section, coefficients and conclusions from model 4.1 will be further discussed.
Model 4.1
The first model examines the results for the independent variables and their affect on attendance. There are four variables in the regression that are at a level of considerable significance and these four variables are; major penalty minutes, goals scored, location, and minor penalty minutes. Major penalty minutes have the highest level of significance.
Major penalty minutes are significant at a 99% confidence level. Major penalty minutes are normally given to a player for fighting or for a severe degree of violence. This was expected to be a significant factor in determining attendance and from the results fighting and severe violence have a negative impact on attendance. The results go against past studies by Jones et al 51
(1996), Ferguson et al (1993), and Paul (2003) that all stated fighting has a positive effect against attendance. This suggests that fans would rather see a skilled game of hockey rather than watch a fight. The results imply that since the lockout fighting has lost its value and there are other factors that bring fans to a game. The next three variables are also significant, but at a 95% confidence level.
Location, goals scored, and minor penalty minutes were all significant at the 95% confidence level. Goals scored were expected to have a significant impact on attendance since the lockout because the NHL franchise had changed the rules of the game in attempt to increase scoring. These rules are; two line passes are now allowed, there are no more ties instead one five minute overtime will be played and a shootout will follow if no goals have been scored, there are smaller neutral zones, goal lines have been moved in from thirteen inches to eleven inches, there are tag up off sides, the size of goaltending equipment has been reduced, there are no line changes if a team ices the puck, zero tolerance on penalties, fines for diving, and new regulations on where goaltenders can play the puck from. The t-stat for goals scored is 2.07. This means that the variable is significant at a 95% confidence level. The results support the hypothesis that goals scored does in fact have a positive effect on attendance since the lockout. Another significant variable on attendance is location.
Location was calculated as a dummy variable where a northern town was given a one and a southern town was given a zero. The t-score for location is 2.38 which is significant at the 95% confidence level. Based on previous studies location was believed to have a positive effect on attendance if the team was from a northern location and a negative effect if the team was from a southern location. The results support previous studies looked at by Ferguson and Jones (1988) and Weidecke (1999) in saying that northern locations do attract more fans to their games than 52 southern locations do. The last variable to show significance at the 95% confidence level is minor penalty minutes.
Minor penalty minutes like major penalty minutes was expected to have a positive effect on attendance up to a certain level of minutes; however, from the results minor penalty minutes were found to have a negative effect on attendance. The t-score for minor penalty minutes is 2.48 which is significant at the 95% confidence level. The results go against the hypothesis and other past studies that look at violence by Jones et al (1996), Ferguson et al (1993), and Paul (2003).
This shows that fans want to watch the game with limited interruption. The results show that fans do not want to see a team who is going to generate a lot of penalty minutes.
The remaining variables failed to provide significant evidence affecting attendance in the
NHL since the lockout. Total points, games played, all-stars, competitive balance, winning percent, play-offs, and weekend games all were insignificant variables that did not affect attendance as much as expected. Competitive balance was barely off the significance level with
1.49. This means that competitive balance does have an impact on attendance, but not at a significant level.
The goal of this study was to produce an accurate definition of what factors affect attendance in the NHL since the lockout. The r-squared was only .4 which means that the data covered 40 percent of the factors that affect attendance. Although this is not extremely high, it is still a respectable percentage. The r-squared lets us know that there are still other factors that might affect attendance since the lockout. Since the focus of this study were game factors that affect attendance it can be assumed that there are outside factors that affect attendance. The following chapter will talk about final conclusions of the study as well as further research that can be done to determine the exact factors that affect attendance. CHAPTER 5
CONCLUSION
This chapter presents the final conclusions of this study along with a discussion on limitations and of this studies future research that can be done to follow up this study. The analysis tested ten independent variables as well as three dummy variables in an attempt to determine what factors affect attendance since the 2004-2005 season ending lockout in the
National Hockey League. The thirteen variables tested were; goals scored, total points, winning percent, competitive balance, all-stars, play-offs, major penalty minutes, minor penalty minutes, location, and weekend games. Games played was originally in the equation; however, due to every team playing the same amount of regular season games, games played was taken out of the equation. All of these game variables were expected to have an effect on attendance; however, only four variables were shown to have a significant effect on attendance
Conclusion
This study is a starting point on determining what factors affect attendance. More research is needed in order to determine all the factors that affect attendance in the National
Hockey League. This study found that there are four variables that affect attendance in the NHL on a significant level. These four variables are goals scored, location, minor penalty minutes, and major penalty minutes.
53 54
Goals scored were found to be significant at the 95% significance level. The NHL changed the rules of the game in an attempt to increase scoring because they believed that scoring would increase attendance. 6o Scoring has increased since the lockout and as this study has proved, an increase in goals scored will attract more fans. This shows that the NHL franchise has made the right decision to change the rules of the game because scoring has increased which means that more fans will want to watch the games. The next significant variable was location.
Location is the second variable that had a significant impact on attendance. Location was a dummy variable. Northern cities were given a one while a southern city was given a zero. The line was drawn halfway through the United States due to the relatively low number of teams in
Canada compared to the United States. Location was significant at the 95% significance level as well as goals scored. This study suggests that northern cities do tend to attract more fans than southern cities. This study also helps support past research by Jones and Ferguson (1988) as well as Weidecke's (1999) research stating that teams who relocate to northern cities will eventually have more attendance because better teams emerge in better locations where there will be more fans. 61 The result from this study helps teams who are thinking about relocating because northern cities will attract more fans. A team will have a better chance of selling out their arena in the long run if they relocate to a northern location even if they struggle in the short run. 62
Minor and Major penalty minutes are the last two significant variables when determining factors that affect attendance.
60 Mertle, James. "A look at the NHL's 'new' goals." SB Nation. Available from http://www.fromtherink.com/2009/4/5/823244/a-look-at-the-nhls-new-goals. Internet; accessed 9 April 2009.
61 Ferguson, D.G., and Jones lC.H. "Location and Survival in the National Hockey League." Journal a/Industrial Economics, no. 36 (1988): 443-457.
62 Weidecke, Jennifer. "affecting attendance in the National Hockey League: A multiple regression modeL" Master's thesis, University 0/ North Carolina Chapel Hills, (1999): 55
From the data in this study, minor penalties have increased in the NHL every year since the lockout. The analysis showed that minor penalties negatively affect attendance in the NHL.
The original hypothesis was that minor penalty minutes would increase scoring which would than increase attendance; however, minor penalty minutes had the opposite effect on attendance.
Minor penalty minutes were significant at the 95% significance level. This proves that the
NHL's attendance has dropped since the lockout due to the increase in fighting. Excessive minors was found by averaging the total number of minor penalty minutes in the NHL per season and finding any team who was above the average minor penalty minutes, major penalty minutes was also found this way and will be discussed later in the chapter. There were seventeen teams above the average level in the 2005-2006 season, thirteen teams above average in the 2006-2007 season, and 15 teams above average in the 2007-2008 season. Scoring increases during power play chances;63 however, minor penalty minutes decrease attendance. So fans would rather see an increase in even strength goals than see a team have excessive minor penalty minutes. Minor penalty minutes flows into major penalty minutes which is a more severe penalty ending with five minutes in the box instead of only two.
Major penalty minutes were the last variable that was significant in this study. Major penalties consisted mainly of fighting, but are also used for severe degrees of violence or aggression. The NHL has been trying to decide if fighting in the NHL is a good thing or not. 64
This study determined that since the lockout, fans do not want to see as many fights as they used to. The results show that major penalty minutes was the most significant variable to impact
63 Ryder, Alan. "Welcome Back to the New NHL Globe Sports." Globe Sports. Available from http://www.globesports.com/servlet/story IRTGAM. 20081027. wsptryder1023/GSStoryI GlobeSports/home. Internet; accessed 1 January 2009.
64 Buccigross, John. "The Pros and Cons of Fighting in the NHL." ESPN .com. Available from http://sports.espn.go.com/nh l/columns/story?columnist=buccigross john&id=27242S4. Internet; accessed 10 April 2009. 56
attendance in the NHL. Major penalty minutes were significant at the 99% significance level
with a t-score of -4.70. The hypothesis was expecting major penalty minutes to have a positive
impact on attendance due to past studies. Jones et al (1993) found that fighting was a major
impact on attendance in the NHL as well as Jones et al (1996) in a later study. Paul (2003) also found that fighting had a significant impact on attendance in the NHL. All of these studies go against what this study found; however, all of those studies were conducted pre- lockout. This study gives data from after the lockout. This shows that the NHL should have stronger rules and penalties against players who'decide to fight because fans want to see a hockey game and not a boxing match on ice.
Future studies
This study looked at game factors of the NHL to try and determine what affects attendance. The r-squared was 40% which means that there is still data missing from the equation and that the equation used in this study is not the most accurate determination of what affects attendance in the NHL since the lockout. This section will suggest further areas of research to be looked at to further determine what affects attendance since the lockout.
This study looks at just game factors, and the only factor that is not associated with the game itself is location. Location had a significant impact on attendance which raises the idea that other non game factors can affect attendance. Further research can be done on the city that the teams play in. For example, population of the city may have an impact on attendance as well as the average income that the people of the city make. The age of the stadium can impact attendance. Newer stadiums can attract fans due to the novelty affect which is seen in chapter II.
Coates and Humphreys (2005) looked at new facilities in football and find that fans want to come to a game just to see the new facility. Older stadiums may attract fewer fans than newer 57 stadiums. This is another possible idea to further help determine what factors can affect attendance in the NHL.
There are a few limitations in this study. The first of these limitations is that there are only three seasons of data that can be used since the lockout. The data is not as reliable as if there were more seasons to calculate. This allows for further research to be conducted for five, ten, fifteen, and so on years. Further research in a few year will help show how factors affect attendance in the National Hockey League more accurately. Although it is important to look at this study again in the future, it is important to remember that times change and so does the play of game. In ten to fifteen years the rules and teams may not be the same as they are today. Sports teams are always changing and adapting to new teams in the league and new rules. This study shows the short term effects of game attendance, but fails so show any outside factors that may also affect attendance. This opens the door for further research on what factors affect attendance in the National Hockey League. SOURCES CONSULTED
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