Emerging Infectious Diseases
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Estimating the Instantaneous Asymptomatic Proportion with a Simple Approach: Exemplified with the Publicly Available COVID-19 Surveillance Data in Hong Kong
ORIGINAL RESEARCH published: 03 May 2021 doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.604455 Estimating the Instantaneous Asymptomatic Proportion With a Simple Approach: Exemplified With the Publicly Available COVID-19 Surveillance Data in Hong Kong Chunyu Li 1†, Shi Zhao 2,3*†, Biao Tang 4,5, Yuchen Zhu 1, Jinjun Ran 6, Xiujun Li 1*‡ and Daihai He 7*‡ 1 2 Edited by: Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China, JC 3 Catherine Ropert, School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China, Chinese University of 4 Federal University of Minas Hong Kong (CUHK) Shenzhen Research Institute, Shenzhen, China, School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi’an Jiaotong 5 Gerais, Brazil University, Xi’an, China, Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada, 6 School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Reviewed by: Hong Kong, China, 7 Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China Mohammad Javanbakht, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Iran Background: The asymptomatic proportion is a critical epidemiological characteristic Changjing Zhuge, that modulates the pandemic potential of emerging respiratory virus, which may vary Beijing University of Technology, China *Correspondence: depending on the nature of the disease source, population characteristics, source–host Daihai He interaction, and environmental factors. [email protected] Xiujun Li Methods: We developed a simple likelihood-based framework to estimate the [email protected] instantaneous asymptomatic proportion of infectious diseases. Taking the COVID-19 Shi Zhao epidemics in Hong Kong as a case study, we applied the estimation framework [email protected] to estimate the reported asymptomatic proportion (rAP) using the publicly available † These authors share first authorship surveillance data. -
Globalization and Infectious Diseases: a Review of the Linkages
TDR/STR/SEB/ST/04.2 SPECIAL TOPICS NO.3 Globalization and infectious diseases: A review of the linkages Social, Economic and Behavioural (SEB) Research UNICEF/UNDP/World Bank/WHO Special Programme for Research & Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR) The "Special Topics in Social, Economic and Behavioural (SEB) Research" series are peer-reviewed publications commissioned by the TDR Steering Committee for Social, Economic and Behavioural Research. For further information please contact: Dr Johannes Sommerfeld Manager Steering Committee for Social, Economic and Behavioural Research (SEB) UNDP/World Bank/WHO Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR) World Health Organization 20, Avenue Appia CH-1211 Geneva 27 Switzerland E-mail: [email protected] TDR/STR/SEB/ST/04.2 Globalization and infectious diseases: A review of the linkages Lance Saker,1 MSc MRCP Kelley Lee,1 MPA, MA, D.Phil. Barbara Cannito,1 MSc Anna Gilmore,2 MBBS, DTM&H, MSc, MFPHM Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum,1 D.Phil. 1 Centre on Global Change and Health London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK 2 European Centre on Health of Societies in Transition (ECOHOST) London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK TDR/STR/SEB/ST/04.2 Copyright © World Health Organization on behalf of the Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases 2004 All rights reserved. The use of content from this health information product for all non-commercial education, training and information purposes is encouraged, including translation, quotation and reproduction, in any medium, but the content must not be changed and full acknowledgement of the source must be clearly stated. -
Commentary Disease Transmission Dynamics and the Evolution
Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA Vol. 96, pp. 800–801, February 1999 Commentary Disease transmission dynamics and the evolution of antibiotic resistance in hospitals and communal settings Simon A. Levin*† and Viggo Andreasen‡ *Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Eno Hall, Princeton University, Princeton NJ 08544; and ‡Department of Mathematics, Roskilde University, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark Despite the tremendous benefits of antibiotics for dealing with sally, exercising little influence on their host under normal a wide range of pathogens, there is by now little doubt that conditions. Antibiotics are typically introduced to treat the their indiscriminate use has led to the emergence of novel true pathogens, and for them the problem of resistance resistant strains and a frightening new set of threats to public introduces questions concerning the length and intensity of health. Hospitals and other community settings provide an treatment, multidrug strategies, and patient compliance. (See, especially fertile ground for the spread of those types; in for example, refs. 2–4). Commensals provide a different sort particular, the recent emergence and proliferation of bacteria of problem, however. Under normal conditions, they live in resistant to both methicillin and vancomycin has engendered such places as the skin or upper respiratory tract, causing little serious concern, threatening the effectiveness of the last or no harm. On occasion, however, they become translocated available options for treatment of potentially fatal Staphylo- to sites that are normally sterile, such as the blood or lungs, coccus strains. where they may have serious harmful effects (6). Many viru- It seems clear that a considered and comprehensive strategy lence factors, for example in Staphylococcus aureus, are carried for antibiotic use is essential, permitting the intelligent de- on plasmids, and can be exchanged among different strains. -
Valacyclovir Reduced Genital Herpes Transmission in Couples Discordant for Herpes Simplex Virus Type 2 Infection Corey L, Wald A, Patel R, Et Al
146 THERAPEUTICS Evid Based Med: first published as 10.1136/ebm.9.5.146 on 30 September 2004. Downloaded from Valacyclovir reduced genital herpes transmission in couples discordant for herpes simplex virus type 2 infection Corey L, Wald A, Patel R, et al. Once-daily valacyclovir to reduce the risk of transmission of genital herpes. N Engl J Med 2004;350:11–20. Clinical impact ratings GP/FP/Primary care wwwwwwq Infectious diseases wwwwwqq ............................................................................................................................... In heterosexual couples who are serologically discordant for herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection, does once Q daily valacyclovir reduce the sexual transmission of genital herpes? METHODS MAIN RESULTS The table shows the results. Design: randomised placebo controlled trial. CONCLUSION In heterosexual couples discordant for herpes simplex virus type 2 infection, valacyclovir reduced transmission of infection. Allocation: concealed.* Commentary Blinding: blinded {participants, healthcare providers, data revious studies have shown that antiviral drugs can reduce the collectors, data analysts, and outcome assessors}À.* frequency of recurrence and subclinical shedding of viral particles.1 Follow up period: 8 months. P This important, large, well designed trial by Corey et al is the first to show an effect on the transmission of HSV-2 infection to an uninfected partner. In this study, the reduction in transmission was limited; 62 partners had Setting: 96 sites in the US, Canada, Europe, Latin America, and to take the drug daily for 8 months to prevent 1 infection, and 57 partners Australia. had to take the drug daily to prevent overall acquisition of HSV-2 infection. 2 independent predictors were found in addition to the drugs: Participants: 1498 couples >18 years who were women as the susceptible partners (hazard ratio [HR] 3.3) and duration immunocompetent, heterosexual, monogamous, in good health, of HSV-2 infection ,2 years (HR 2.9). -
Use of Antibiotics for Cholera Chemoprevention
Use of antibiotics for cholera chemoprevention Iza Ciglenecki, Médecins Sans Frontières GTFCC Case management meeting, 2018 Outline of presentation • Key questions: ₋ Rationale for household prophylaxis – household contacts at higher risk? ₋ Rationale for antibiotic use? ₋ What is the effectiveness? ₋ What is the impact on the epidemic? ₋ Risk of antimicrobial resistance ₋ Feasibility during outbreak control interventions • Example: Single-dose oral ciprofloxacin prophylaxis in response to a meningococcal meningitis epidemic in the African meningitis belt: a three-arm cluster-randomized trial • Prevention of cholera infection among contacts of case: a cluster-randomized trial of Azithromycine Rationale: risk for household contacts Forest plot of studies included in meta-analysis: association of presence of household contact with cholera with symptomatic cholera Richterman et al. Individual and Household Risk Factors for Symptomatic Cholera Infection: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis. JID 2018 Rationale: clustering of cholera cases in time and space Relative risk for cholera among case cohorts compared with control cohorts at different spatio-temporal scales Living within 50 m of the index case: RR 36 (95% CI: 23–56) within 3 days of the index case presenting to the hospital Debes et al. Cholera cases cluster in time and space in Matlab, Bangladesh: implications for targeted preventive interventions. Int J Epid 2016 Rationale: clustering of cholera cases in time and space Relative risk of next cholera case occuring at different distances from primary case Relative risk of next cholera case being within specific distance to another case within days 0-4 Within 40 m: Ndjamena: RR 32.4 (95% 25-41) Kalemie: RR 121 (95% CI 90-165) Azman et al. -
2019 Maryland STI Annual Report
November 2020 Dear Marylanders, The Maryland Department of Health (MDH) Center for STI Prevention (CSTIP) is pleased to present the 2019 Maryland STI Annual Report. Under Maryland law, health care providers and laboratories must report all laboratory-confirmed cases of chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis to the state health department or the local health department where a patient resides. Other STIs, such as herpes, trichomoniasis, and human papillomavirus (HPV), also affect sexual and reproductive health, but these are not reportable infections and therefore cannot be tracked and are not included in this report. CSTIP epidemiologists collect, interpret and disseminate population-level data based on the reported cases of chlamydia, gonorrhea, syphilis and congenital syphilis, to inform state and local health officials, health care providers, policymakers and the public about disease trends and their public health impact. The data include cases, rates, and usually, Maryland’s national rankings for each STI, which are calculated once all states’ STI data are reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The CDC then publishes these data, including state-by-state rankings, each fall for the prior year. The 2019 report is not expected to be released until early 2021 because of COVID-related lags in reporting across the country. The increases in STIs observed in Maryland over the past 10 years mirrors those occurring nationwide, and the increasing public health, medical and economic burden of STIs are cause for deep concern. The causes for these increases are likely multi-factorial. According to CDC, data suggest contributing factors include: Substance use, poverty, stigma, and unstable housing, all of which can reduce access to prevention and care Decreased condom use among vulnerable groups Shrinking public health resources over years resulting in clinic closures, reduced screening, staff loss, and reduced patient follow-up and linkage to care services Stemming the tide of STIs requires national, state and local collaboration. -
Estimating the COVID-19 Infection Rate: Anatomy of an Inference Problem
Estimating the COVID-19 Infection Rate: Anatomy of an Inference Problem Charles F. Manski Francesca Molinari The Institute for Fiscal Studies Department of Economics, UCL cemmap working paper CWP20/20 Estimating the COVID-19 Infection Rate: Anatomy of an Inference Problem Charles F. Manski Department of Economics and Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University and Francesca Molinari Department of Economics, Cornell University April 26, 2020, forthcoming in the Journal of Econometrics Abstract As a consequence of missing data on tests for infection and imperfect accuracy of tests, reported rates of cumulative population infection by the SARS CoV-2 virus are lower than actual rates of infection. Hence, reported rates of severe illness conditional on infection are higher than actual rates. Understanding the time path of the COVID-19 pandemic has been hampered by the absence of bounds on infection rates that are credible and informative. This paper explains the logical problem of bounding these rates and reports illustrative findings, using data from Illinois, New York, and Italy. We combine the data with assumptions on the infection rate in the untested population and on the accuracy of the tests that appear credible in the current context. We find that the infection rate might be substantially higher than reported. We also find that the infection fatality rate in Illinois, New York, and Italy is substantially lower than reported. Acknowledgements: We thank Yizhou Kuang for able research assistance. We thank Mogens Fosgerau, Michael Gmeiner, Valentyn Litvin, John Pepper, Jörg Stoye, Elie Tamer, and an anonymous reviewer for helpful comments. We are grateful for the opportunity to present this work at an April 13, 2020 virtual seminar at the Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University. -
Potential for Transmission of Antimicrobial Resistance In
Report of the Scientific Committee of the Food Safety Authority of Ireland 2015 Potential for Transmission of Antimicrobial Resistance in the Food Chain Report of the Scientific Committee of the Food Safety Authority of Ireland Potential for Transmission of Antimicrobial Resistance in the Food Chain Published by: Food Safety Authority of Ireland Abbey Court, Lower Abbey St Dublin 1 DO1 W2H4 Tel: +353 1 8171300 Fax: +353 1 8171301 [email protected] www.fsai.ie © FSAI 2015 Applications for reproduction should be made to the FSAI Information Unit ISBN 978-1-910348-01-7 Report of the Scientific Committee of the Food Safety Authority of Ireland Potential for Transmission of Antimicrobial Resistance in the Food Chain CONTENTS FOREWORD 4 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 5 ABBREVIATIONS 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7 CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 10 1.1 The Scale of the Antimicrobial Resistance Problem ...................10 1.2 Human and Animals – The ‘One Health’ Concept.....................11 1.3 The Background to the Antimicrobial Resistance Problem . .11 1.4 Genetic Diversity, Genetic Determinants and Change in Bacteria . 14 1.5 Selection for Antimicrobial Resistance...............................15 1.6 Surveillance of Antimicrobial Resistance in Ireland and Europe . .15 1.7 Prudent Use of Antimicrobials – Definition . 15 1.8 Surveillance of Antimicrobial Use in Ireland and Europe ...............16 1.9 Antimicrobials and the Food Chain . .16 1.10 Antimicrobial-resistant Bacteria and the Food Chain ..................16 1.11 Summary . .17 1.12 Chapter Bibliography..............................................17 CHAPTER 2. TERMS OF REFERENCE 20 2.1 Chapter Bibliography..............................................20 1 of 58 Report of the Scientific Potential for Transmission of Committee of the Food Safety Authority of Ireland Antimicrobial Resistance in the Food Chain CHAPTER 3. -
Zoonotic Diseases Fact Sheet
ZOONOTIC DISEASES FACT SHEET s e ion ecie s n t n p is ms n e e s tio s g s m to a a o u t Rang s p t tme to e th n s n m c a s a ra y a re ho Di P Ge Ho T S Incub F T P Brucella (B. Infected animals Skin or mucous membrane High and protracted (extended) fever. 1-15 weeks Most commonly Antibiotic melitensis, B. (swine, cattle, goats, contact with infected Infection affects bone, heart, reported U.S. combination: abortus, B. suis, B. sheep, dogs) animals, their blood, tissue, gallbladder, kidney, spleen, and laboratory-associated streptomycina, Brucellosis* Bacteria canis ) and other body fluids causes highly disseminated lesions bacterial infection in tetracycline, and and abscess man sulfonamides Salmonella (S. Domestic (dogs, cats, Direct contact as well as Mild gastroenteritiis (diarrhea) to high 6 hours to 3 Fatality rate of 5-10% Antibiotic cholera-suis, S. monkeys, rodents, indirect consumption fever, severe headache, and spleen days combination: enteriditis, S. labor-atory rodents, (eggs, food vehicles using enlargement. May lead to focal chloramphenicol, typhymurium, S. rep-tiles [especially eggs, etc.). Human to infection in any organ or tissue of the neomycin, ampicillin Salmonellosis Bacteria typhi) turtles], chickens and human transmission also body) fish) and herd animals possible (cattle, chickens, pigs) All Shigella species Captive non-human Oral-fecal route Ranges from asymptomatic carrier to Varies by Highly infective. Low Intravenous fluids primates severe bacillary dysentery with high species. 16 number of organisms and electrolytes, fevers, weakness, severe abdominal hours to 7 capable of causing Antibiotics: ampicillin, cramps, prostration, edema of the days. -
Evolution of Disease Transmission During the COVID-19
www.nature.com/scientificreports OPEN Evolution of disease transmission during the COVID‑19 pandemic: patterns and determinants Jie Zhu & Blanca Gallego* Epidemic models are being used by governments to inform public health strategies to reduce the spread of SARS‑CoV‑2. They simulate potential scenarios by manipulating model parameters that control processes of disease transmission and recovery. However, the validity of these parameters is challenged by the uncertainty of the impact of public health interventions on disease transmission, and the forecasting accuracy of these models is rarely investigated during an outbreak. We ftted a stochastic transmission model on reported cases, recoveries and deaths associated with SARS‑CoV‑2 infection across 101 countries. The dynamics of disease transmission was represented in terms of the daily efective reproduction number ( Rt ). The relationship between public health interventions and Rt was explored, frstly using a hierarchical clustering algorithm on initial Rt patterns, and secondly computing the time‑lagged cross correlation among the daily number of policies implemented, Rt , and daily incidence counts in subsequent months. The impact of updating Rt every time a prediction is made on the forecasting accuracy of the model was investigated. We identifed 5 groups of countries with distinct transmission patterns during the frst 6 months of the pandemic. Early adoption of social distancing measures and a shorter gap between interventions were associated with a reduction on the duration of outbreaks. The lagged correlation analysis revealed that increased policy volume was associated with lower future Rt (75 days lag), while a lower Rt was associated with lower future policy volume (102 days lag). -
Evidence That Coronavirus Superspreading Is Fat-Tailed BRIEF REPORT Felix Wonga,B,C and James J
Evidence that coronavirus superspreading is fat-tailed BRIEF REPORT Felix Wonga,b,c and James J. Collinsa,b,c,d,1 aInstitute for Medical Engineering and Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139; bDepartment of Biological Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139; cInfectious Disease and Microbiome Program, Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA 02142; and dWyss Institute for Biologically Inspired Engineering, Harvard University, Boston, MA 02115 Edited by Simon A. Levin, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, and approved September 28, 2020 (received for review September 1, 2020) Superspreaders, infected individuals who result in an outsized CoV and SARS-CoV-2 exhibited an exponential tail. We number of secondary cases, are believed to underlie a significant searched the scientific literature for global accounts of SSEs, in fraction of total SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Here, we combine em- which single cases resulted in numbers of secondary cases pirical observations of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 transmission and greater than R0, estimated to be ∼3 to 6 for both coronaviruses extreme value statistics to show that the distribution of secondary (1, 7). To broadly sample the right tail, we focused on SSEs cases is consistent with being fat-tailed, implying that large super- resulting in >6 secondary cases, and as data on SSEs are sparse, spreading events are extremal, yet probable, occurrences. We inte- perhaps due in part to a lack of data sharing, we pooled data for grate these results with interaction-based network models of disease SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2. Moreover, to avoid higher- transmission and show that superspreading, when it is fat-tailed, order transmission obfuscating the cases generated directly by leads to pronounced transmission by increasing dispersion. -
Shigellosis Outbreak Investigation & Control
SHIGELLOSIS OUTBREAK INVESTIGATION & CONTROL IN CHILD CARE CENTERS / PRE-SCHOOLS Colorado Department of Public Health & Environment Communicable Disease Epidemiology Program For information on Shigella disease control and epidemiology, including reporting requirements and routine case investigation, please refer to the CPDHE Communicable Disease Manual, available at: http://www.cdphe.state.co.us/dc/Epidemiology/dc_manual.html When a case of shigellosis occurs in a child care center attendee or worker, immediate involvement of public health authorities is critical. Shigella spreads very quickly through child care centers, but can be controlled if appropriate action is taken. When an outbreak occurs, the first case to be diagnosed may be a child, or an adult contact of a child. For a single case of shigellosis associated with a child care center: • Children with shigellosis should not be permitted to re-enter the child care center until diarrhea has resolved and either the child has been treated with an effective antibiotic for 3 days or there are 2 consecutive negative stool cultures. • It is important to obtain the antibiotic susceptibility pattern for the isolate from the physician or the clinical laboratory that performed the test in order to determine if a child has been treated with an effective antibiotic. • Parents of cases should be counseled not to take their children to another child care center during this period of exclusion. • Public health or environmental health staff should visit the facility, review hygienic procedures, and reinforce the importance of meticulous handwashing with childcare center staff. • Look for symptoms consistent with Shigella infection (diarrhea and fever) in other children or staff during the 3 weeks previous to the report of the index case.