AWIO20 FMEE 101206 TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2021/02/10 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY: Warnings WTIO20 n°021/10 and WTIO30 n°21/10/20202021 on tropical cyclone FARAJI. Next Warnings issued at 12UTC

PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION: The basin remains in a monsoon trough (MT) configuration centered between 9S and 14S east of 50E. West of this MT, the monsoon flow concerns the entire Mozambique Channel and converges towards a low pressure zone located off the Mozambican coast around 22.7S/40.0E. The convective activity is focused at the level of tropical cyclone FARAJI, in the Mozambique Channel along the axis of the monsoon flow on its eastern part and more modestly on the northern side of the MT.

Tropical Cyclone FARAJI : Position at 0800UTC : 15.3S/85.1E Estimated minimum pressure: 962 hPa Max wind over 10 minutes: 85kt Forward motion: SSE 3kt For more information, please refer to the next bulletins issued at 12UTC and following.

On the Mozambique Channel: The monsoon flow, currently in place in the channel, will strengthen over the next few days due to the baroclinic interaction between a high altitude trough rising from the South-West and the low pressure area in the South of the channel. On the satellite imagery we can discern a vortex near the island of Europa. The automatic station present on this island, shows a decrease in pressure.

The depression is shifting westward under the influence of the subtropical ridge, and is positioned at the end of Thursday under the through. The system remains under the axis of the trough on Friday, which could allow the formation of a warm core near the coast of Mozambique. On Saturday, the through shifted towards the North- West, and the system could then deepen into a moderate tropical storm on the western edge of the ridge that strengthens south of Mada (the displacement of the system limiting the negative effect of the north flow, and benefiting from a good polar divergence). As it tracks towards the SSO, it remains near the coast of Mozambique , whose proximity could have a limiting effect, but on waters with particularly favourable potential. The location near or on the land of the low pressure zone should not allow its deepening but rather favour the intensification of the monsoon flow.

This situation should leave at least winds close to 35 knots over a good part of the canal. Related to this situation, weather conditions will be disturbed during the week on the coastal regions of the Mozambique channel in Madagascar and Mozambique.

The risk that an other moderate tropical storm forms in the Mozambique Channel is low to moderate from Friday onwards and become moderate on Sunday.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10% Moderate: 30% to 60% Very high: over 90% Low: 10% to 30% High: 60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.