Illinois Finds Its GO Buyers
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Vol. 392 No. 35309 N.Y., N.Y. THE DAILY NEWSPAPER OF PUBLIC FINANCE Thursday, May 14, 2020 THURSDAY Fed: Muni Illinois www.bondbuyer.com Program is WASHINGTON Finds Its THE $3 TRILLION HEROES ACT, which would give $915 bil- Imminent lion in direct federal aid to BY SARAH WYNN GO Buyers state and local governments, appears poised for approval in Federal Reserve leadership said their municipal short-term the House on Friday, but its BY LYNNE FUNK, CHIP BARNETT lending program will be up and AND CHRISTINE ALBANO prospects in the Senate seem running in a matter of weeks, slight.. 4 not months, while municipalities The municipal market digest- forge ahead and price deals to a ed large deals out of Illinois, New SIFMA RELEASED UPDATED MODEL mostly receptive muni market. York City, and a California pen- documents to help dealers In a Senate Banking, Housing sion obligation deal while yields comply with changing guid- and Urban Affairs Committee fell again in the secondary. hearing Tuesday, Fed Vice Chair However, despite triple-A bench- ance on decreasing duplicative of Supervision Randal Quarles Bloomberg News mark yields falling by two or four disclosures in response to said he expects the Fed’s Munic- Fed Vice Chair of Supervision Randal Quarles said he expects the Fed’s basis points, credit concerns are revised Municipal Securities ipal Liquidity Facility as well as Municipal Liquidity Facility to be running in weeks, not months. increasing among investors. Rulemaking Board guidance on its Main Street Lending Program The Fed, meanwhile, said it Rule G-17. 4 to be open in a matter of weeks. ture for me to say exactly how lenges are ahead,” said Emily needs a few weeks to get the short- Committee Chairman Sen. many weeks it would be before Brock, director of the federal li- term lending program up and run- THE REGIONS Mike Crapo, R-Idaho, told they will be operational,” Quarles aison center for the Government ning but investors signaled Wednes- Quarles he was concerned on said. “But it is the highest prior- Finance Officers Association. “So day that the market is able to take WHILE THEIR REGIONS, SIZES AND how quickly the Fed could get ity of what we’re working on.” a lot of states and localities have on new-issues at yields that are still funding streams vary, leaders those programs operating. The Fed, since the creation of already taken the first step with- historically low. of several U.S. mass transit “I don’t think we’re looking at the MLF in early April has been out the Fed even being around.” Investors are signaling that high- months, but it would be prema- releasing details over the past few In an ideal world, it would er-grade, longer-term issuers will systems spoke as one in under- weeks on how it will work, but have been great to get the MLF fare far better than lower-rated, scoring the dire need for addi- it has yet to begin buying munis. functioning few weeks ago, but higher-yield ones, and that general tional federal funding to battle WEDNESDAY’S YIELDS The program will buy $500 billion the Fed also had to start from obligation bonds will fare better scratch, Brock said. the effects of the COVID-`19 The Bond Buyer 40 of short-term notes from issuers. than short-term notes, depending pandemic.. 5 “Cities and states are already “Would it have been nice to get on the ratings and structure of the 5.3 To Maturity talking with their financial insti- this information sooner?” Brock issuer. 3.84 Down 0.01 4.5 tutions and to their deal teams to said. “Sure, ideally, but there are Illinois served as case in point THE SOUND DEFEAT OF A BALLOT make a determination of the best so many steps along the way that for both of these signals, pricing measure that would have 3.7 type of capital, the best source of had to be taken in order to make its $800 million general obligation overhauled Atlantic City’s capital, the best way for them to this a substantial program. You bond deal to a receptive market. 2.9 mayor-council system of gov- help to underpin what the chal- Turn to Fed page 5 Turn to GOs page 2 ernment will prevent any major 2.1 To Par Call 3.29 Down 0.04 structural changes to the 1.3 junk-rated municipality as it 04/30 05/05 05/08 05/13 Louisiana is Counting Fiscal Cost of Coronavirus grapples with new fiscal chal- 5.5 lenges created by the COVID- BY SHELLY SIGO 19 pandemic. 5 5.0 4.5 COVID-19 and depressed oil WEB EXCLUSIVE 4.0 prices will take an outsize toll 3.5 on Louisiana’s finances, with COLORADO NEEDS TO CUT $3.3 bil- 3.0 the state and local governments lion from the budget for fiscal 2.5 facing billions in losses, accord- 2.0 year 2021 after the largest ing to the state’s economist and 1.5 auditor. revenue drop in the state’s his- MAMFJDNOSAJJ On Monday, the revenue es- tory, officials said. Complete market coverage appears on page 2 timating conference adopted a general fund forecast for fiscal 2020 and 2021 that projects more than $1 billion in lower state revenues compared to pre- vious baseline numbers in De- cember and January. The lower forecasts are attrib- utable to the nearly two months Louisiana’s businesses have been shuttered and skyrocketing Bloomberg News unemployment because of the Workers disinfect the French Market in New Orleans. The impact of the Turn to State page 6 pandemic and collapsing oil prices will hit Louisiana budgets hard. 001_BB051420 1 5/13/2020 5:03:12 PM Market News Thursday, May 14, 2020 2 The Bond Buyer GOs Faring Better Than Notes in Present Market Conditions Continued from page 1 pon in 2030 to yield 5.65%; 5.50% coupon to push,” a Chicago trader said. “The timing year saw 11 defaults in those months. in 2039 to yield 5.75%; and, 5.75% coupon of that deal, the short maturity, nestled in the The year-to-date impairment count — Yields on Illinois were trimmed across the in 2045 to yield 5.85%. heart of the COVID fallout timeline, and the which encompasses all borrowers notifying deal including 10 basis points on the long end Sources said that investors feel more pro- lack of the ability to market is essentially bondholders of technical or payment defaults and 15 basis points on the 10-year. The state tected with the bigger coupon payments and what would have forced that type of yield. or of a credit threat that poses reasonable risk initially intended to sell $1 billion but then it also allows Illinois to collect more cash up It’s like, would you rather own MTA zeros in of near-term default — is now 66, slightly dropped the taxable piece, shrinking the deal front (a higher dollar price for bonds) and 30 or MTA notes? The zeros all day because ahead of last year’s pace (which had been the to $750 million, before later raising the size then kick the can of interest payments down they straddle the storm.” fastest in six years), MMA’s Default Trends to $800 million in the re-pricing. the road. For instance, the New York MTA (A2/A-/ report said. The deal came with coupons and yields The state backed off issuing the $1.2 bil- A+/AA+) deal last week doubled in size This year’s mix skews strongly toward re- above 5% but was re-priced to lower yields lion short-term notes last week after hearing to over a billion and then it rallied strongly tirement projects, which account for nearly a from a morning pricing wire. The deal was price talk of 7% yields. (30 basis points better) in the secondary; third of all fresh impairments. The retirement oversubscribed by as much as 14 times on It points to the major uncertainty of the well-compensated investors (+280 bps) un- sector has never provided more than 20% of 2021 bonds, 15 times in the 2023 maturity market banking on repayments from low- derstand the MTA as too big to fail. The new impairments on a full-year basis. Land and 14 times in 2024. er-rated issuers entering the short-term notes New York MTA green taxable bonds sold at secured projects are next, with the most YTD The 30-year also saw 14 times oversub- market, generally, especially without the 5.175% in 2049 traded as low as 4.82% in impairments since 2014. scriptions and the long bond was 10.3 times Fed’s hands on the deals or the issuer paying massive blocks Friday. “Only four 2020 impairments are in safe oversubscribed. a hefty yield penalty. The exempt MTAs, 4.75s of 2045, traded sectors so far. MMA continues to expect Bonds in 2021 came with a 4.875% cou- Longer-dated lower-rated general obli- at 4.75%-4.78%. a pandemic-linked increase in 2020’s safe pon priced at par. 5.125% in 2022 at par; gation bonds feel safer to investors instead, So although credit conditions remain in sector impairment count (versus 2019’s full 5.375% in 2023 at par; 5.50% in 2024 at par; sources said. flux — and with a potentially enormous year total of 25), but such has not yet begun,” 5.50% coupon to yield 5.60% in 2025; 5.50% “The 7% price talk was for the short downside should even a few safe sector cred- the report said.