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Follow on to the Development of Spatial Models of Essential Fish Habitat for the South Inshore and Offshore Marine Plan Areas

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Follow on to the Development of Spatial Models of Essential Fish Habitat for the South Inshore and Offshore Marine Plan Areas h Follow on to the Development of Spatial Models of Essential Fish Habitat for the South Inshore and Offshore Marine Plan Areas March 2016 Follow on to the Development of Spatial Models of Essential Fish Habitat for the South Inshore and Offshore Marine Plan Areas MMO Project No: 1096 Project funded by: The Marine Management Organisation Report prepared by: Institute of Estuarine and Coastal Studies, University of Hull © Marine Management Organisation 2016 This publication (excluding the logos) may be re-used free of charge in any format or medium (under the terms of the Open Government Licence www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/). It may only be re-used accurately and not in a misleading context. The material must be acknowledged as Marine Management Organisation Copyright and use of it must give the title of the source publication. Where third party Copyright material has been identified, further use of that material requires permission from the Copyright holders concerned. Disclaimer This report contributes to the Marine Management Organisation (MMO) evidence base which is a resource developed through a large range of research activity and methods carried out by both MMO and external experts. The opinions expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect the views of MMO nor are they intended to indicate how MMO will act on a given set of facts or signify any preference for one research activity or method over another. MMO is not liable for the accuracy or completeness of the information contained nor is it responsible for any use of the content. This report should be cited as MMO (2016). Follow on to the Development of Spatial Models of Essential Fish Habitat for the South Inshore and Offshore Marine Plan Areas. A report produced for the Marine Management Organisation, pp 142. MMO Project No: 1096. ISBN: 978-1- 909452-40-4. First published March 2016. Contents Contents .................................................................................................................... 4 Figures ...................................................................................................................... 5 Tables ........................................................................................................................ 8 Executive Summary ................................................................................................. 1 1. Introduction .......................................................................................................... 4 1.1 Aim and objectives ........................................................................................... 6 2. Project Approach and Methodology ................................................................... 8 2.1 Stakeholder consultation .................................................................................. 8 2.2 Validation activity ............................................................................................. 9 2.2.1 Validation using expert judgement ............................................................. 9 2.2.2 Model statistical validation ....................................................................... 10 2.3 Additional data ............................................................................................... 11 3. Results ................................................................................................................ 12 3.1 General assessment ...................................................................................... 12 3.2 Validation of maps.......................................................................................... 13 3.2.1 European plaice (Pleuronectes platessa) ................................................. 14 3.2.2 Sole (Solea solea) .................................................................................... 22 3.2.3 Lemon sole (Microstomus kitt) ................................................................. 26 3.2.4 Dab (Limanda limanda) ............................................................................ 30 3.2.5 Red gurnard (Chelidonichthys cuculus) ................................................... 35 3.2.6 Common dragonet (Callionymus lyra) ...................................................... 39 3.2.7 Solenette (Buglossidium luteum) .............................................................. 43 3.2.8 Thickback sole (Microchirus variegatus) .................................................. 47 3.2.9 Thornback ray (Raja clavata) ................................................................... 50 3.2.10 Herring (Clupea harengus) ..................................................................... 52 3.3 Areas of improvement – Fish survey data ...................................................... 56 3.4 Areas of improvement – Environmental data layers ....................................... 71 3.4.1 Bathymetry ............................................................................................... 71 3.4.2 Seabed substrate & bed forms ................................................................. 72 3.4.3 Currents ................................................................................................... 73 3.4.4 Salinity ..................................................................................................... 74 3.4.5 Temperature............................................................................................. 75 3.4.6 Biogeochemistry ....................................................................................... 76 4. Conclusions and Recommendations ............................................................... 77 4.1 Validation, improvement and confidence of outputs from MMO (2013 a-c) .... 77 4.2 Further improvement to the application of the original approach in marine plan areas .............................................................................................................. 79 4.3 Recommendations ......................................................................................... 80 5. References .......................................................................................................... 82 Annex 1: Questionnaire ......................................................................................... 84 Annex 2: Methods for model statistical validation ............................................ 119 Annex 3: Thickback sole nursery grounds (amended) ..................................... 125 Figures Figure 1: a) Nursery habitats for European plaice (Pleuronectes platessa) predicted by classification tree modelling of the distribution of juveniles (40-180mm total length; 0-group; Lauria et al., 2011) in the South marine plan areas. b) Relative confidence associated with the model spatial prediction. ............................................................. 5 Figure 2: Validated map of adult foraging habitat of European plaice (Pleuronectes platessa) predicted by classification tree modelling of the distribution of adults (190- 640mm total length) in the South marine plan areas. The cells outlined in black (1) indicate areas where the model overestimates the presence of adult plaice. ........... 15 Figure 3: Confidence associated with the predicted adult foraging habitat of European plaice (Pleuronectes platessa) in the South marine plan areas: a) before validation (overall confidence: moderate); b) after validation (overall confidence: moderate-low). ......................................................................................................... 16 Figure 4: Validated map of nursery habitat of European plaice (Pleuronectes platessa) predicted by classification tree modelling of the distribution of juveniles (40- 180mm total length) in the South marine plan areas. Nursery habitat is identified with probability of presence >50%. .................................................................................. 17 Figure 5: Confidence associated with the predicted nursery habitat of European plaice (Pleuronectes platessa) in the South marine plan areas: a) before validation (overall confidence: low); b) after validation (overall confidence: moderate). ........... 18 Figure 6: Validated map of spawning habitat of European plaice (Pleuronectes platessa) predicted by classification tree modelling of the distribution of early stage eggs (1.75-2.28mm diameter) in the South marine plan areas. Spawning habitat is identified with probability of presence >50%. ........................................................... 20 Figure 7: Confidence associated with the predicted spawning habitat of European plaice (Pleuronectes platessa) in the South marine plan areas: a) before validation (overall confidence: moderate-low); b) after validation (no statistical validation was possible therefore overall confidence remains moderate-low). ................................ 21 Figure 8: Validated map of adult foraging habitat of common sole (Solea solea) predicted by classification tree modelling of the distribution of adults (210-470mm total length) in the South marine plan areas. ............................................................ 22 Figure 9: Confidence associated with the predicted adult foraging habitat of common sole (Solea solea) in the South marine plan areas: a) before validation (overall confidence: low); b) after validation (overall confidence: low). ................................. 23 Figure 10: Validated map of nursery habitat of common sole (Solea solea) predicted by classification
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