PREFACE (Including License to Download and Restrictions on Distribution) Prepared June, 2008, by the Author, Catherine G. Burke. In 1979 Lexington Books (belonging to D. C. Heath and Company) published the book "Innovation and Public Policy: The Case of Personal Rapid Transit", based on research, carried on as part of the doctoral program at UCLA from 1973-1977. I had become acquainted with the research on PRT at The Aerospace Corporation, El Segundo, California, and wondered why such a seemingly attractive system was not being adopted. I examined other research efforts in Japan, England, France and Germany and discovered their research began far more successfully, but in non-transportation agencies. As the projects appeared ready for implementation, the various Ministries and agencies controlling public transport took over the research and there they died. In the U.S., the only potential funding came from the US Department of Transportation or Transit Authorities, so Aerospace was also forced to abandon its highly promising project. At the time of publication, Lexington Books/D. C. Heath was the copyright holder. Aerospace Corporation, MITI in Japan, Cabinentaxi in Germany, and MATRA in France gave me permission to use their photos and maps which were also part of the copyright. Several years later when the book went out of print, D. C. Heath assigned the copyright to me. At the time the book was published I waived my royalty rights to keep the price of the book at a minimum so that even impecunious students could afford it. I personally bought the remaining copies of the book which were given to interested parties and to College and University Libraries at a price that simply covered my costs. I believe that Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) is the wave of the future, with its many benefits to the rider. It will be safe, rapid, private, and comfortable. It will be fully accessible to the physically handicapped, the elderly and young people without a car - at a reasonable cost. In the urban landscape, it is sized and automated for low capital and operating costs and designed to reduce congestion, pollution and noise. Its footprint would also contribute to optimal land use. Therefore, my purpose is to have the book read as widely as possible, because if enough readers feel as strongly as I do about the virtues of PRT, they could become the constituency which will stimulate the development and widespread installation of PRT systems. For all these reasons, I am happy to have the Advanced Transit Association publish the book on the Internet. My consent Is conditional to the attachment of this Preface to the beginning of each installment, inasmuch as it grants the right to download, duplicate, and distribute the book subject to certain restrictions stated in the next paragraph. As sole Copyright holder of "Innovation and Public Policy: The Case of Personal Rapid Transit", I hereby grant the license to any person to download any or all installments of the book, provided the downloaded text is preceded by this Preface. Any person is also licensed to duplicate and distribute, free of charge, the entire book or any complete chapter of the book, provided the text distributed is preceded by this Preface. Under no circumstances may anyone charge or receive remuneration for distributing any portion of the book. No portion of the book can be used out of context without the explicit permission of the Copyright holder. Although the book was published in 1979, the issues and the analyses made then are still valid today--with the exception that costs have changed considerably over the nearly 30 years since publication. Some costs have come down like those of computer and control systems. Vehicle costs have risen, but possibly less than average costs because of the high degree of automation in their manufacture. The dominant costs, however, were guideway costs, and these might be considerably higher today than in 1979. Operating costs will also be higher, because of the labor costs in operation, maintenance, security and the higher prices for electricity. Of course costs of building trains and buses have also risen to a great extent, so comparisons of PRT with rail and bus systems strengthen the case for PRT. The rising price of oil and gasoline reinforce the appeal of PRT as far less costly than driving an automobile. Current cost estimates can be found on a number of web sites; the most comprehensive is maintained by Dr. Jerry Schneider at Innovative Transportation Technologies, http://faculty.washington.edu/jbs/itrans/ and by the Advanced Transit Association, http://www.advancedtransit.org/news.aspx Because the book is about innovation and the problems in bringing a dramatically new technology on line, chapter six developed a model involving the degree of change based on the impact on different individuals and organizations. The model shows 4 levels of change, while more recent research indicates there should be five such levels. The additional level belongs in the middle just above the current level 2. Any questions related to the downloading, the fonts to be used, the availability of installments, or questions related to the current status of PRT should be addressed to Bob Dunning at e-mail address: [email protected]. Any questions regarding content may be addressed to the author. Requests to use any part of the book in a manner that does not conform to the license granted above should be addressed to the author at e-mail address: [email protected]. -- Dr. Catherine Burke ·Catherine G. Burke Lexington Books Innovation and Public Policy Innovation and Public Policy The Case of Personal Rapid Transit Catherine G. Burke University of Southern California LexingtonBooks D.C. Heath and Company Lexington, Massachusetts Toronto Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Burke, Catherine G. Innovation and public policy. 1. Personal rapid transit-United States. I. Title HE308.B87 338.4'0973 79-2410 ISBN 0-669-03167-4 Copyright © 1979 by D.C. Heath and Company. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or trans­ mitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Published simultaneously in Canada. Printed in the United States of America. International Standard Book Number: 0-669-03167-4 Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 79-2410 Contents List of Figures ix List of Tables xi Acknowledgments xiii Part I Politics, Innovation; and Transportation 1 Chapter 1 Introduction 3 The Problem of Innovation 3 Personal Rapid Transit 6 Objectives and Methods 7 Chapter 2 Politics, Technology, and Innovation 13 Political Subsystems 13 Macropolitical Systems 14 Domains-Consensus and Conflict 14 The Power Setting 16 Network Patterns and Relationships 17 Environmental Conditions 18 Organizational Politics 18 The Urban Transportation Network 20 People and Politics 29 Technology 30 Technological Innovation 31 Scope and Depth of Change 32 Paradigms 34 Invention and Innovation 35 Systems of Appraisal 35 The Role of Government 36 Entrepreneurship 37 Risk 38 Summary 41 Chapter 3 The Rise and Fall of Public Transportation 43 Historical Overview of the Public Transit Industry 44 Summary 62 Conclusions 65 v vi Innovation and Public Policy Chapter 4 Today's Problems and Alternatives 67 Land Use 67 Congestion 68 Access and Mobility 70 Environmental Quality 73 Safety 74 Energy Consumption 74 Resource Consumption 74 Quality of Life in Urban Areas 75 Costs 76 Freight Movement 76 Institutional Problems 76 Alternative Transportation Systems 78 Private Transportation 79 Public Transportation 80 Conclusions 88 The Transit Paradigm 91 Part 11 The Federal Experience 95 Chapter 5 History and Development of Personal Rapid Transit 99 Early Ideas 99 The HUD Studies 100 Morgantown 104 Transpo '72 115 Summary and Conclusions 118 Chapter 6 The Challenge of Personal Rapid Transit 129 Alternative Systems 130 PRT-Service and Technology 132 Conceptualizing Change 133 PRT and the Urban Transportation Problem 138 The Paradigm Challenge 149 Summary 159 Chapter 7 Paradigm Challenge and the Political System 163 UMTA 164 New Technology Opportunities Program 169 Automated Guideway Transit Technology 178 Local Politics and Federal Programs 179 Contents vii Downtown People-Mover Project 183 Implications for Theory 186 Part III A Tale ofFour Cities 193 Chapter 8 Denver 201 Chapter 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul 213 Chapter 10 Las Vegas 219 Actors 221 Chronology 224 Issues 236 Chapter 11 Los Angeles 243 Chapter 12 Local Politics and Federal Money 269 Part IV A Larger Perspective 279 Chapter 13 The International Experience 281 England-Cabtrack 282 Japan-CVS 286 Germany-Cabinentaxi 290 France-Aramis 295 Conclusions 298 Chapter 14 Technological Innovation and Public Policy 301 The Hypothesis Restated 303 Technology and the Struggle for Power 307 Forces for the Status Quo 310 Forces for Change 331 Summary 334 Notes 337 Glossary 381 Selected Bibliography 387 Index 391 About the Author 402 List of Figures 1-1 PRT Model Superimposed on City Street 8 1-2 Typical PRT Network for Los Angeles Region 9 1-3 Representative PRT Station 10 2-1 Urban Transportation Political Subsystem 22 4-1 Existing Transit Paradigm 92 6-1 Generic Automated Guideway Transit Vehicle 134 6-2 Monorail Guideway Configuration 135 6-3 Aerospace Corporation PRT Guideway Configuration 136 6-4 Aerospace Corporation PRT Vehicle 137 6-5 Aerospace Corporation Guideway Detail