Downloaded from Capital IQ by Dung Hoang Nguyen (
[email protected]) at Albizia Capital Pte Ltd on Wednesday Sep 05 2018 02:00:14 AM, Sessionid:0os5r1xn3mu4dnmpear2nxem Global Research 4 September 2018 Vietnam Strategy Equity Strategy Financial deepening, the next leg higher Asia Ian Gisbourne Vietnamese capital markets are still at a very early stage of development Analyst The next five years should witness significant financial deepening in Vietnam. It is still
[email protected] the only country in the region (ex. China) where bank credit exceeds the sum of listed +662-613 5758 bonds and equities outstanding. We expect a pivot from dependence on bank loans in favour of capital markets. The government plans to divest shares in 400 SOEs by 2020 and we expect many new private companies to seek listings. For Vietnam to converge on the average for East Asia we estimate the value of outstanding bonds would have to grow by circa US$200bn, or 400%, and equities by US$173bn (+100%) by 2023. Our index targets are 1,070 (Dec/2018) and 1,360 (Dec/2019), equating to a total increase of 36%. This is based on the historic earnings yield gap and assumptions about 1) EPS growth and 2) benchmark bond yields. The sensitivity to changes in rates is significant, and remains one of the largest risks for investors (note, the consolidation since April correlates with the inflection in bond yields). Our most preferred stocks are Mobile World (Link), Military Bank (Link) and Techcombank (Link). A positive feedback loop between financial deepening and growth Total system credit has grown from 20% of GDP in 1997 to 130% in 2017.