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Ubsonvn2018.09.Pdf Downloaded from Capital IQ by Dung Hoang Nguyen ([email protected]) at Albizia Capital Pte Ltd on Wednesday Sep 05 2018 02:00:14 AM, Sessionid:0os5r1xn3mu4dnmpear2nxem Global Research 4 September 2018 Vietnam Strategy Equity Strategy Financial deepening, the next leg higher Asia Ian Gisbourne Vietnamese capital markets are still at a very early stage of development Analyst The next five years should witness significant financial deepening in Vietnam. It is still [email protected] the only country in the region (ex. China) where bank credit exceeds the sum of listed +662-613 5758 bonds and equities outstanding. We expect a pivot from dependence on bank loans in favour of capital markets. The government plans to divest shares in 400 SOEs by 2020 and we expect many new private companies to seek listings. For Vietnam to converge on the average for East Asia we estimate the value of outstanding bonds would have to grow by circa US$200bn, or 400%, and equities by US$173bn (+100%) by 2023. Our index targets are 1,070 (Dec/2018) and 1,360 (Dec/2019), equating to a total increase of 36%. This is based on the historic earnings yield gap and assumptions about 1) EPS growth and 2) benchmark bond yields. The sensitivity to changes in rates is significant, and remains one of the largest risks for investors (note, the consolidation since April correlates with the inflection in bond yields). Our most preferred stocks are Mobile World (Link), Military Bank (Link) and Techcombank (Link). A positive feedback loop between financial deepening and growth Total system credit has grown from 20% of GDP in 1997 to 130% in 2017. At the current rate, credit outstanding could exceed 250% by 2027. We believe this is unsustainable. Other challenges include: relatively high public debt and persistent fiscal deficits; lingering concerns around the level of banks' capital and profitability; and the size of the State and stagnant productivity. The good news is that we believe the government recognises these challenges and that capital markets can offer a solution. Financial deepening should allow for better allocation and pricing of credit. For these reasons we believe there is a positive feedback loop between financial deepening and growth. However, the converse is also true and thus it is key the government executes on its commitment to put the market economy at the heart of policy. The signposts to watch for In this report we discuss the signposts to watch out for to test our thesis: 1) the draft securities law to be discussed in parliament in October (it represents the next stage in development of local capital markets); 2) changes in foreign ownership for companies as a whole and banks in particular; 3) progress on equitisation and proposals for a new committee to manage State assets; 4) how many of the 700+ companies on 'UPCoM' get transferred to the main Board (UPCoM is a mezzanine exchange designed to prepare companies for a full listing); and 5) long standing speculation that Vietnam might make it onto the watch list to be reclassified as an 'emerging market' by MSCI. Today we are initiating upon six stocks with an average upside of 35% Our most preferred names are Mobile World, Military Bank and Techombank. Our least preferred name is Vietcombank (Link), on valuation; we rate it NEUTRAL. Whilst our positive stance on the banking sector is consensus, we believe our rationale is quite different. We do not believe the model of the past (rapid credit growth, especially to large corporates) is sustainable. Rather, we think growth should be driven by household credit and fee income; similar to what we have observed elsewhere in the region over the past 15 years. For consumer names, we believe the market is still under-estimating the growth in both Mobile World (Link) and Vinamilk (Link). The former because of the changing profile of growth; the latter because of weak sales of FMCG in Vietnam in Q118. www.ubs.com/investmentresearch This report has been prepared by UBS Securities (Thailand) Ltd. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 43. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should For the exclusiveconsider use this of Dung report Hoang as Nguyenonly a single([email protected]) factor in making at Albizia their Capital investment Pte Ltd decision. Downloaded from Capital IQ by Dung Hoang Nguyen ([email protected]) at Albizia Capital Pte Ltd on Wednesday Sep 05 2018 02:00:14 AM, Sessionid:0os5r1xn3mu4dnmpear2nxem Vietnam Strategy P2 UBS Research THESIS MAP a guide to our thinking and what's where in this report MOST FAVORED LEAST FAVORED Mobile World, Military Bank, Techcombank PIVOTAL QUESTIONS Q: Can Vietnam sustain rapid rates of economic growth? Yes if, we believe, financial deepening complements growth in trade and investment. The economy faces a number of particular challenges: over-dependence on bank credit; relatively high public debt and persistent fiscal deficits; lingering concerns around the level of banks' capital and profitability; and the size of the State and stagnant productivity. Financial deepening should allow for better allocation and pricing of credit. One of the biggest risks we see is delay in implementing reforms.more Q: Financial deepening, could this offer substantial opportunities? Yes. Six of the eight largest listed companies are former SOEs. The government plans to divest some or all of its shares in another 400 SOEs by 2020. The bond market is currently the smallest in East Asia; in order to reach a similar depth to peers it would have to quadruple over the next five years. We also see the potential for exponential growth in contractual savings e.g. life assurance. more Q: Are there structural factors particular to Vietnam behind recent volatility? Our base case is that Vietnamese equities will continue to get 'more valuable' but that government policy, limited liquidity and information and increasing foreign flows should also mean the market remains highly volatile. more UBS VIEW Vietnamese capital markets are still at a very early stage of development. Our base case is that the next five years will witness significant financial deepening. Vietnam is also the only country other than China where bank credit exceeds the sum of listed bonds and equities. We expect a pivot away from dependence on bank loans to capital markets. For Vietnam to converge on the average for East Asia we estimate the value of outstanding bonds would have to grow by circa US$200bn, or 400%, and equities by US$173bn (+100%) by 2023. Our VNINDEX targets are 1,070 (Dec/2018) and 1,360 (Dec/2019), equating to a gain of 7% in the remainder of 2018 and a total gain of 36%. EVIDENCE The Financial Sector Road map until 2020 and a paper published in 2016 by the World Bank and Vietnamese Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) entitled 'Vietnam 2035, Toward Prosperity, Creativity, Equity and Democracy' are significant statements of intent. They acknowledge the challenges described above and commit to targets for deepening capital markets. WHAT'S PRICED IN? The forward PE for Vietnam on 2019 EPS remains below the average for ASEAN despite superior growth prospects. This is despite circa. 80% outperformance over the past five years. Most of the gains were achieved between April 2017 and April 2018. Since then, the Index has corrected by 20% in US$-terms. Why? Five-year yields have increased by circa 200 bps since March. We believe this is discounted in current share prices but further, sharp increases in yields would cap any equity gains, in our view. more UBS recommendations and valuations PE P/BV Div Yld Price UBS PT Upside Mkt Cap ADV, 30D 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 Company (Local) (Local) (%) (US$m) (US$000) (x) (x) (x) (x) (%) (%) Military Bank 23,700 33,500 41% 2,197 6,219 9.0 7.4 1.6 1.4 2.5% 2.5% Mobile World 120,000 160,000 33% 1,663 2,924 12.9 11.4 5.4 4.8 1.5% 1.7% Techcombank 26,300 42,500 62% 3,946 1,740 11.3 10.2 1.8 1.5 0.0% 0.0% Vietcombank 62,500 64,500 3% 9,650 5,885 20.0 16.5 3.7 3.2 1.3% 1.3% Vietnam Dairy 156,700 190,000 21% 9,760 6,880 26.8 23.6 7.9 6.9 3.2% 3.7% VP Bank 25,900 38,000 47% 2,693 5,292 7.8 6.9 1.7 1.3 0.2% 0.0% Average 35% 4,985 4,824 14.6 12.7 3.7 3.2 1.5% 1.5% Source: UBS estimates Vietnam Strategy 4 September 2018 2 For the exclusive use of Dung Hoang Nguyen ([email protected]) at Albizia Capital Pte Ltd Downloaded from Capital IQ by Dung Hoang Nguyen ([email protected]) at Albizia Capital Pte Ltd on Wednesday Sep 05 2018 02:00:14 AM, Sessionid:0os5r1xn3mu4dnmpear2nxem Vietnam Strategy UBS Research Sector Q1 SIGNPOSTS – Vietnam Strategy In order to see whether our thesis is playing out, here’s what we’ll be tracking: WHAT WE EXPECT Oct 2018 Draft Securities Law The next stage in development of capital markets The State Securities Commission is drafting a new Securities Law. It is, to be presented to the National Assembly this October. We expect it to address issues such as information disclosure, market conduct, regulatory and supervisory authority, listing procedures and foreign participation in local capital markets.
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