Charlie Cook’s Keys to 2020
Insights into the 2020 election landscape visualized by National Journal’s Presentation Center
June 11, 2019
Moderator Daniel Stublen
Speaker Charlie Cook President Trump’s approval rating is currently lower than recent presidents when they were re-elected
Approval ratings of re-elected presidents RATINGS AT COMPARABLE POINTS IN PRESIDENCES, TRUMP RATING CURRENT AS OF JUNE 3, 2019
■ Clinton ■ W. Bush ■ Obama ■ Trump
90% Approval at reelection: W. Bush: 53% Obama: 50% 80% Clinton: 57% 66%, W. Bush, Trump approval: 40% 2002 midterm 70%
60% 47%, Obama, 2010 midterm 50%
40%
43%, Clinton, 38%, Trump, 1994 midterm 30% 2018 midterm
20% Jan '17 May '17 Sep '17 Jan '18 May '18 Sep '18 Jan '19 May '19 Sep '19 Jan '20 May '20 Sep '20
Sources: Gallup
Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: June 10, 2019 2 Trump’s approval rating is between the last two presidents who did not win reelection
Approval ratings of presidents who were not re-elected RATINGS AT COMPARABLE POINTS IN PRESIDENCES, TRUMP RATING CURRENT AS OF JUNE 3, 2019
■ Carter ■ H.W. Bush ■ Trump
90% Approval at reelection loss: Carter: 31% H.W. Bush: 42% 80% Trump approval: 40%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20% Jan '17 May '17 Sep '17 Jan '18 May '18 Sep '18 Jan '19 May '19 Sep '19 Jan '20 May '20 Sep '20
Sources: Gallup
Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: June 3, 2019 3 Major polls show Trump’s “strong disapproval” higher than “strong approval”
Trump job approval, by intensity
■ Strongly approve ■ Somewhat approve ■ Don’t know/Not sure ■ Somewhat disapprove ■ Strongly disapprove
Fox News 28% 18% 1% 9% 44% May 11-14, 2019
NBC/WSJ 29% 17% 3% 10% 41% April 28-May 1, 2019
ABC News/ Washington Post 28% 12% 6% 9% 45% April 22-25, 2019
Election National Exit Poll 31% 14% 1% 8% 46% Nov. 6, 2018
Sources: Fox News, NBC/WSJ, ABC/Washington Post
Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: June 3, 2019 4 National polling on voters’ intentions to re-elect Trump
■ Definitely voting to re-elect ■ Don’t Know ■ Considering/probably voting for Democrat/someone else ■ Considering/probably voting to re-elect ■ Definitely voting for Democrat/someone else
NPR/PBS Marist, 36% 13% 51% May 31-June 4, 2019
ABC News/ Washington Post, 28% 14% 3% 55% April 22-25, 2019
Grinnell College/ Selzer and Co. 35% 3% 17% 45% Nov. 24-27, 2018
Fox News, 28% 10% 9% 7% 46% May 11-14, 2019
NBC/WSJ, 27% 14% 11% 15% 33% Feb. 24-27, 2018
*Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding Sources: NPR/PBS Marist, Grinnell College/Selzer and Company, Fox News, NBC/WSJ, ABC News/Washington Post
Danari White | Slide last updated on: June 3, 2019 5 Percent of people who “strongly approve” of Pres. Trump
2016 Trump voters 64% Republican Men 60% Republicans 60% Republican Women 60% Conservatives 52% White Evangelicals 51% White men without College Degree 37% Rural Whites 37% White Men 36% White Men with College Degree 36% Rural voters 35% Whites with no College Degree 34% Age 45+ years of age 34% Men 32% Whites 32% White Women With No College 31% Whites with College Degree 30% $50,000+ income 29% All Voters 28% White Women 28% Under $50,000 income 26% Urban 25% Women 24% Suburban 23% Under 45 years of age 20% Independents 17% Moderates 16% Non-whites 16% Democratic Men 8% Liberals 7% Democrats 5% Clinton voters 3% Democratic Women 2% Sources: Fox News
Slide last updated on: June 3, 2019 6 Percent of people who “strongly disapprove” of Pres. Trump
Clinton voters 78% Democratic Women 78% Democrats 76% Liberals 76% Democratic Men 74% Non-whites 58% White Women with college degree 50% All Women 48% Under $50,000 income 48% Suburban 46% Urban 45% Moderates 45% Under 45 45% All Voters 44% White Women 43% Age 45+ 43% Whites with college degree 42% $50,000+ income 40% Whites 39% Rural voters 39% Independents 38% White Women with no college degree 38% Men 38% Rural Whites 38% Whites Without college degree 36% White Men with college degree 34% White Men 34% White Men without college degree 33% White Evangelicals 16% Conservatives 15% Republican Women 6% Republicans 5% Republican Men 4% 2016 Trump voters 4% Sources: Fox News
Slide last updated on: June 3, 2019 7 By Cook’s estimates, only 20% of the electorate is up for grabs
Definitely voting Definitely voting Up for grabs, for Trump, against Trump, 20% 35% 45%
“President Trump needs to win between 2/3 and 3/4 of the 20% that are up for grabs in order to be re-elected.”
Sources: Cook Political Report
Slide last updated on: March 8, 2019 8 Margin over 50% for Trump or Clinton head-to-head (independent and 3rd party candidates removed)
*Clinton’s head to head margin over 50% in DC was 47.9% Sources: National Journal Research, 2019
Daniel Stublen | Slide last updated on: March 8, 2019 9 Trump’s 2016 results by state compared with Romney in 2012 (independent and 3rd party candidates removed)
■ Trump outperformed Romney ■ Romney outperformed Trump
Sources: National Journal Research, 2019
Daniel Stublen | Slide last updated on: March 8, 2019 10 Candidates must secure at least 270 electoral votes to win
Cook Political Report ratings 2020 ELECTORAL COLLEGE
Solid to Lean R (220) Toss Ups (86) Lean to Solid D (232)
270 majority line
Solid Republican 125
Likely Republican 56
Lean Republican 39
Toss Up 43 43
Lean Democrat 22
Likely Democrat 22
Solid Democrat 188
Source: Cook Political Report.
Nicholas Wu | Slide last updated on: Jan. 28, 2019 86 electoral votes are in Toss Up states for the 2020 presidential election Cook Political Report: 2020 Electoral College ratings ■ Solid D ■ Likely D ■ Lean D ■ Toss Up ■ Lean R ■ Likely R ■ Solid R
WA 12 VT MT ME* ND 3 3 4 OR 3 MN 7 ID 10 NH 4 SD WI NY 4 WY 3 10 MI 29 3 16 IA PA MA 11 NE* 6 20 NV OH 5 IL IN 6 UT 18 RI 4 20 11 6 CO WV CA 9 KS MO 5 VA 13 CT 7 55 6 10 KY 8 NC 15 NJ 14 TN 11 AZ OK AR 11 NM 7 SC DE 3 5 6 9 GA MS AL 16 MD 10 6 9 AK TX LA DC 3 3 38 8 FL HI 29 4
*Nebraska and Maine award two electors each to the winner of their state’s popular vote and one elector to the winner of each of their congressional districts Sources: Cook Political Report.
Danari White | Slide last updated on: June 10, 2019 12 Consumer sentiment is around the same point as in 2016, but consumer confidence has increased significantly Tracking polls of consumers
INDICES CALCULATED BY THE SURVEYING ORGANZATIONS
■ University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment ■ Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Sources: Conference Board, University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers
Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: June 3, 2019 13 The unemployment rate is at an almost historic low of 3.6%
Monthly civilian unemployment rate PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL LABOR FORCE; SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ■ Unemployment rate
6.0%
5.5%
5.0%
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0% Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19
10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19
Sources: FRED, St. Louis Fed
Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: June 3, 2019 14 Congressional results are mixed when a president wins or loses reelection
President’s party gain/loss of seats in House or Senate VITAL STATISTICS ON CONGRESS ■ ■ House seats gained/lost by incumbent president’s party ■ ■ Senate seats gained/lost by incumbent president’s party
1 2012 8 Obama re-elected
4 2004 3 W. Bush re-elected
-2 1996 -9 Clinton re-elected
0 1992 10 H.W. Bush not re-elected
-2 1984 14 Reagan re-elected
-12 1980 -34 Carter not re-elected
0 1976 -1 Ford loses election
Sources: UC Santa Barbara
Danari White | Slide last updated on: March 20, 2019 15 Historical partisan control of Congress after elections
•House of Representatives
88TH-116TH CONGRESS
155 147 149 119 103 100 83 81 85 82 79 75 71 61 59 51 53 51 53 46 30 33 38 26 20 24 23 12 9
'62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18
Senate 88TH-116TH CONGRESS
36 34
28 24 24
18 16 17 14 14 12 10 10 11 10 8 10 10 10 10 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 2 0
'62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18
Source: United States Senate, Office of the Clerk of the House of Representatives
Slide last updated on: March 19, 2018 16 Trump’s narrow victories in key states leave him vulnerable to even a small swing in 2020
10 states were decided by less than 5% ■ Clinton win ■ Trump win Clinton by 2.7% Clinton by 1.5% Trump by 1% Trump by 0.3% (19,995 votes) (44,470 votes) (27,257 votes) (13,080 votes) WA
VT ME* MT ND VT-3 OR MN Clinton by 0.4% NH-4 (2,701 votes) ID SD WI NY NY WY MI IA PA Trump by 1.2% Clinton by 2.4% NV NE (68,236 votes) OH (26,434 votes) UT IL IN CO WV CA KS MO VA KY NC AZ TN Trump by 3.8% OK (177,009 votes) Trump by 3.9 % NM AR SC (91,682 votes) MS AL GA
TX LA
AK FL Trump by 1.2% (112,911 votes) HI
*Clinton won Maine’s statewide vote, but Trump received an electoral vote for winning the 2nd district Source: National Journal research, 2019.
Slide last updated on: March 19, 2019 17 Google searches for Democratic presidential candidates: December 30, 2018 - June 1, 2019
Number of weeks in the top-3 most searched ■ Iowa ■ South Carolina ■ New Hampshire ■ Nevada ■ Overall US
Joe Biden 14 15 14 16 15 Bernie Sanders 14 13 15 15 14 Pete Buttigieg 11 9 9 10 11 Kamala Harris 8 10 5 10 8 Beto O'Rourke 5 7 5 5 7 Elizabeth Warren 7 5 7 4 4 Cory Booker 2 2 3 1 2 Tulsi Gabbard 2 2 1 3 2 Amy Klobuchar 1 4 1 1 Kirsten Gillibrand 2 1 1 1 1 Bill de Blasio 1 1 1 Andrew Yang 1 John Delaney 1 Eric Swalwell 0 Steve Bullock 0 Seth Moulton 0 Marianne Williamson 0 Julian Castro 0 Michael Bennet 0 Jay Inslee 0 Tim Ryan 0 John Hickenlooper 0 Wayne Messam 0 Source: Google Trends 18 Google searches for Democratic presidential candidates: March 30, 2018 - June 1, 2019
Number of weeks in the top-3 most searched ■ Iowa ■ South Carolina ■ New Hampshire ■ Nevada ■ Overall US
Joe Biden 9 8 7 9 9 Pete Buttigieg 9 7 7 9 9 Bernie Sanders 6 6 7 6 7 Beto O'Rourke 2 2 1 1 1 Elizabeth Warren 1 2 Kamala Harris 2 1 Bill de Blasio 1 1 1 Cory Booker 1 Tulsi Gabbard 1 Amy Klobuchar 1 Andrew Yang 1 Kirsten Gillibrand John Delaney Eric Swalwell 0 Steve Bullock 0 Seth Moulton 0 Marianne Williamson 0 Julian Castro 0 Michael Bennet 0 Jay Inslee 0 Tim Ryan 0 John Hickenlooper 0 Wayne Messam 0 Source: Google Trends 19 The Cook Political Report has released its first set of 2020 House race ratings Cook Political Report ratings ALL 2020 HOUSE RACES
Solid to Lean R (196) Toss Ups (21) Lean to Solid D (218)
218 majority line
Solid Republican 162
Likely Republican 19
Lean Republican 14
Toss Up 4 17
Lean Democrat 18
Likely Democrat 18
Solid Democrat 183
Source: Cook Political Report.
Slide last updated on: May 6, 2019 House Republicans are defending 37 competitive seats to 53 competitive Democratic seats Cook Political Report ratings COMPETITIVE 2020 HOUSE RACES Democrat-held seat Republican-held seat
*Asterisks denote incumbents not seeking reelection or seeking other office (17 Dem, 4 GOP) (19 GOP)
GA-6 McBath AK-AL Young (18 Dem) (18 Dem) IA-1 Finkenauer AZ-6 Schweikert IA-2 Loebsack* CA-22 Nunes AZ-1 O’Halleran CA-10 Harder IA-3 Axne (14 GOP) AZ-2 Kirkpatrick CA-21 Cox IL-14 Underwood IA-4 King CA-25 Hill CA-39 Cisneros ME-2 Golden KS-2 Watkins CA-7 Bera CA-45 Porter MI-8 Slotkin CA-50 Hunter KY-6 Barr CA-49 Levin CA-48 Rouda NJ-3 Kim FL-15 Spano MI-6 Upton CO-6 Crow FL-26 Mucarsel-Powell NM-2 Torres Small IL-13 Davis MN-1 Hagedorn FL-27 Shalala IL-6 Casten NY-11 Rose MO-2 Wagner MN-8 Stauber IL-17 Bustos KS-3 Davids NY-19 Delgado NE-2 Bacon MT-AL Gianforte* MN-3 Phillips MI-11 Stevens NY-22 Brindisi NC-2 Holding NC-13 Budd NV-4 Horsford MN-2 Craig OK-5 Horn NY-27 Collins NY-1 Zeldin NJ-5 Gottheimer MN-7 Peterson SC-1 Cunningham OH-1 Chabot NY-2 King NJ-11 Sherrill NV-3 Lee UT-4 McAdams PA-1 Fitzpatrick NY-24 Katko NY-18 Maloney NH-1 Pappas VA-2 Luria PA-7 Wild NJ-2 Van Drew VA-7 Spanberger PA-10 Perry OH-12 Balderson PA-17 Lamb NJ-7 Malinowski GA-7 Woodall* TX-10 McCaul PA-16 Kelly VA-10 Wexton PA-8 Cartwright NC-9 OPEN TX-21 Roy TX-6 Wright WA-8 Schrier TX-7 Fletcher TX-23 Hurd TX-22 Olson VA-5 Riggleman WI-3 Kind TX-32 Allred TX-24 Marchant TX-31 Carter WA-3 Herrera Beutler
Likely Democrat Lean Democrat Toss Up Lean Republican Likely Republican
Source: Cook Political Report.
Slide last updated on: May 6, 2019 In 2018, House Republicans defended 100 competitive seats to only 13 competitive Democratic seats
(1 Dem, 29 GOP) (1 Dem, 28 GOP) (1 Dem, 28 GOP) Cook Political Report ratings MN-1 Walz* CA-10 Denham MN-8 Nolan* PA-14 OPEN (Lamb) COMPETITIVE 2018 HOUSE RACES CA-25 Knight AK-AL Young AR-2 Hill CA-50 Hunter Democrat-held seat CA-39 Royce* AZ-6 Schweikert CA-45 Walters FL-6 DeSantis* AZ-8 Lesko Republican-held seat CA-48 Rohrabacher FL-16 Buchanan CA-1 LaMalfa FL-15 Ross* FL-18 Mast *Asterisks denote incumbents not seeking reelection, CA-4 McClintock FL-26 Curbelo FL-25 Diaz-Balart seeking other office, or lost their primary election CA-21 Valadao GA-6 Handel GA-7 Woodall CA-22 Nunes IA-3 Young IA-04 King CO-3 Tipton IL-14 Hultgren IL-12 Bost IN-2 Walorski KS-2 Jenkins* IL-13 Davis MI-1 Bergman (3 Dem, 13 GOP) KY-6 Barr MI-6 Upton MI-3 Amash ME-2 Poliquin MO-2 Wagner MI-7 Walberg AZ-1 O’Halleran MI-8 Bishop MT-AL Gianforte NC-8 Hudson NV-3 Rosen* NC-9 Pittenger* NC-2 Holding NY-1 Zeldin (7 Dem, 5 GOP) NV-4 Kihuen* NC-13 Budd NE-2 Bacon NY-2 King AZ-2 McSally* NJ-3 MacArthur NY-11 Donovan NY-21 Stefanik CA-7 Bera CO-6 Coffman NJ-7 Lance NY-24 Katko NY-23 Reed CA-16 Costa FL-27 Ros-Lehtinen* NM-2 Pearce* NY-27 Collins OH-10 Turner FL-7 Murphy IA-1 Blum NY-19 Faso OH-1 Chabot OH-14 Joyce MN-7 Peterson IL-6 Roskam NY-22 Tenney PA-16 Kelly OK-05 Russell NH-1 Shea-Porter* KS-3 Yoder OH-12 Balderson SC-1 Sanford* TX-2 Poe* NJ-5 Gottheimer MI-11 Trott* PA-1 Fitzpatrick TX-22 Olson TX-6 Barton* PA-8 Cartwright MN-2 Lewis PA-10 Perry TX-23 Hurd TX-10 McCaul CA-49 Issa* MN-3 Paulsen TX-7 Culberson VA-5 Garrett* TX-21 Smith* NJ-2 LoBiondo* NJ-11 Frelinghuysen* TX-32 Sessions WA-3 Beutler TX-24 Marchant PA-5 VACANT-Meehan PA-7 VACANT-Dent UT-4 Love WA-5 McMorris Rodgers TX-31 Carter PA-6 Costello* VA-10 Comstock VA-2 Taylor WI-1 Ryan* WI-6 Grothman PA-17 Rothfus/Lamb WA-8 Reichert* VA-7 Brat WV-3 Jenkins* WV-2 Mooney
Likely Democrat Lean Democrat Toss Up Lean Republican Likely Republican
Source: Cook Political Report.
Slide last updated on: November 5, 2018 22 Republicans have more seats up for re-election in 2020 than Democrats do Cook Political Report ratings
ALL 2020 SENATE RACES 12 Democrat held seat Republican held seat *Asterisks denote incumbents not seeking reelection 8 7
3 3
1 0
Solid Democrat Likely Democrat Lean Democrat Toss Up Lean Republican Likely Republican Solid Republican Coons (DE) Peters (MI) Jones (AL) Collins (ME) Perdue (GA) Sullivan (AK) Durbin (IL) Smith (MN) McSally (AZ) Ernst (IA) Cotton (AR) Markey (MA) Udall (NM)* Gardner (CO) Roberts (KS)* Risch (ID) Shaheen (NH) McConnell (KY) Cassidy (LA) Booker (NJ) Hyde-Smith (MS) Daines (MT) Merkley (OR) Tillis (NC) Sasse (NE) Reed (RI) Alexander (TN)* Inhofe (OK) Warner (VA) Graham (SC) Rounds (SD) Cornyn (TX) Moore Capito (WV) Enzi (WY)*
Source: The Cook Political Report, 2019.
Slide last updated on May 6, 2019 23 National polling on Trump impeachment
■ “Yes, should be impeached” or “Congress should begin impeachment proceedings” ■ “No, should not be impeached” or “Congress should not begin impeachment proceedings” ■ Don’t know/No opinion
ABC News/ Washington Post, 37% 6% 56% April 22-25, 2019
Fox News, 42% 8% 50% May 11-14, 2019
*Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding Sources: Fox News, ABC News/Washington Post
Daniel Stublen | Slide last updated on: June 11, 2019 24