DOCSLIB.ORG

Charlie Cook's Keys to 2020

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Charlie Cook's Keys to 2020 Charlie Cook’s Keys to 2020 Insights into the 2020 election landscape visualized by National Journal’s Presentation Center June 11, 2019 Moderator Daniel Stublen Speaker Charlie Cook President Trump’s approval rating is currently lower than recent presidents when they were re-elected Approval ratings of re-elected presidents RATINGS AT COMPARABLE POINTS IN PRESIDENCES, TRUMP RATING CURRENT AS OF JUNE 3, 2019 ■ Clinton ■ W. Bush ■ Obama ■ Trump 90% Approval at reelection: W. Bush: 53% Obama: 50% 80% Clinton: 57% 66%, W. Bush, Trump approval: 40% 2002 midterm 70% 60% 47%, Obama, 2010 midterm 50% 40% 43%, Clinton, 38%, Trump, 1994 midterm 30% 2018 midterm 20% Jan '17 May '17 Sep '17 Jan '18 May '18 Sep '18 Jan '19 May '19 Sep '19 Jan '20 May '20 Sep '20 Sources: Gallup Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: June 10, 2019 2 Trump’s approval rating is between the last two presidents who did not win reelection Approval ratings of presidents who were not re-elected RATINGS AT COMPARABLE POINTS IN PRESIDENCES, TRUMP RATING CURRENT AS OF JUNE 3, 2019 ■ Carter ■ H.W. Bush ■ Trump 90% Approval at reelection loss: Carter: 31% H.W. Bush: 42% 80% Trump approval: 40% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Jan '17 May '17 Sep '17 Jan '18 May '18 Sep '18 Jan '19 May '19 Sep '19 Jan '20 May '20 Sep '20 Sources: Gallup Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: June 3, 2019 3 Major polls show Trump’s “strong disapproval” higher than “strong approval” Trump job approval, by intensity ■ Strongly approve ■ Somewhat approve ■ Don’t know/Not sure ■ Somewhat disapprove ■ Strongly disapprove Fox News 28% 18% 1% 9% 44% May 11-14, 2019 NBC/WSJ 29% 17% 3% 10% 41% April 28-May 1, 2019 ABC News/ Washington Post 28% 12% 6% 9% 45% April 22-25, 2019 Election National Exit Poll 31% 14% 1% 8% 46% Nov. 6, 2018 Sources: Fox News, NBC/WSJ, ABC/Washington Post Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: June 3, 2019 4 National polling on voters’ intentions to re-elect Trump ■ Definitely voting to re-elect ■ Don’t Know ■ Considering/probably voting for Democrat/someone else ■ Considering/probably voting to re-elect ■ Definitely voting for Democrat/someone else NPR/PBS Marist, 36% 13% 51% May 31-June 4, 2019 ABC News/ Washington Post, 28% 14% 3% 55% April 22-25, 2019 Grinnell College/ Selzer and Co. 35% 3% 17% 45% Nov. 24-27, 2018 Fox News, 28% 10% 9% 7% 46% May 11-14, 2019 NBC/WSJ, 27% 14% 11% 15% 33% Feb. 24-27, 2018 *Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding Sources: NPR/PBS Marist, Grinnell College/Selzer and Company, Fox News, NBC/WSJ, ABC News/Washington Post Danari White | Slide last updated on: June 3, 2019 5 Percent of people who “strongly approve” of Pres. Trump 2016 Trump voters 64% Republican Men 60% Republicans 60% Republican Women 60% Conservatives 52% White Evangelicals 51% White men without College Degree 37% Rural Whites 37% White Men 36% White Men with College Degree 36% Rural voters 35% Whites with no College Degree 34% Age 45+ years of age 34% Men 32% Whites 32% White Women With No College 31% Whites with College Degree 30% $50,000+ income 29% All Voters 28% White Women 28% Under $50,000 income 26% Urban 25% Women 24% Suburban 23% Under 45 years of age 20% Independents 17% Moderates 16% Non-whites 16% Democratic Men 8% Liberals 7% Democrats 5% Clinton voters 3% Democratic Women 2% Sources: Fox News Slide last updated on: June 3, 2019 6 Percent of people who “strongly disapprove” of Pres. Trump Clinton voters 78% Democratic Women 78% Democrats 76% Liberals 76% Democratic Men 74% Non-whites 58% White Women with college degree 50% All Women 48% Under $50,000 income 48% Suburban 46% Urban 45% Moderates 45% Under 45 45% All Voters 44% White Women 43% Age 45+ 43% Whites with college degree 42% $50,000+ income 40% Whites 39% Rural voters 39% Independents 38% White Women with no college degree 38% Men 38% Rural Whites 38% Whites Without college degree 36% White Men with college degree 34% White Men 34% White Men without college degree 33% White Evangelicals 16% Conservatives 15% Republican Women 6% Republicans 5% Republican Men 4% 2016 Trump voters 4% Sources: Fox News Slide last updated on: June 3, 2019 7 By Cook’s estimates, only 20% of the electorate is up for grabs Definitely voting Definitely voting Up for grabs, for Trump, against Trump, 20% 35% 45% “President Trump needs to win between 2/3 and 3/4 of the 20% that are up for grabs in order to be re-elected.” Sources: Cook Political Report Slide last updated on: March 8, 2019 8 Margin over 50% for Trump or Clinton head-to-head (independent and 3rd party candidates removed) *Clinton’s head to head margin over 50% in DC was 47.9% Sources: National Journal Research, 2019 Daniel Stublen | Slide last updated on: March 8, 2019 9 Trump’s 2016 results by state compared with Romney in 2012 (independent and 3rd party candidates removed) ■ Trump outperformed Romney ■ Romney outperformed Trump Sources: National Journal Research, 2019 Daniel Stublen | Slide last updated on: March 8, 2019 10 Candidates must secure at least 270 electoral votes to win Cook Political Report ratings 2020 ELECTORAL COLLEGE Solid to Lean R (220) Toss Ups (86) Lean to Solid D (232) 270 majority line Solid Republican 125 Likely Republican 56 Lean Republican 39 Toss Up 43 43 Lean Democrat 22 Likely Democrat 22 Solid Democrat 188 Source: Cook Political Report. Nicholas Wu | Slide last updated on: Jan. 28, 2019 86 electoral votes are in Toss Up states for the 2020 presidential election Cook Political Report: 2020 Electoral College ratings ■ Solid D ■ Likely D ■ Lean D ■ Toss Up ■ Lean R ■ Likely R ■ Solid R WA 12 VT MT ME* ND 3 3 4 OR 3 MN 7 ID 10 NH 4 SD WI NY 4 WY 3 10 MI 29 3 16 IA PA MA 11 NE* 6 20 NV OH 5 IL IN 6 UT 18 RI 4 20 11 6 CO WV CA 9 KS MO 5 VA 13 CT 7 55 6 10 KY 8 NC 15 NJ 14 TN 11 AZ OK AR 11 NM 7 SC DE 3 5 6 9 GA MS AL 16 MD 10 6 9 AK TX LA DC 3 3 38 8 FL HI 29 4 *Nebraska and Maine award two electors each to the winner of their state’s popular vote and one elector to the winner of each of their congressional districts Sources: Cook Political Report. Danari White | Slide last updated on: June 10, 2019 12 Consumer sentiment is around the same point as in 2016, but consumer confidence has increased significantly Tracking polls of consumers INDICES CALCULATED BY THE SURVEYING ORGANZATIONS ■ University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment ■ Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Sources: Conference Board, University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: June 3, 2019 13 The unemployment rate is at an almost historic low of 3.6% Monthly civilian unemployment rate PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL LABOR FORCE; SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ■ Unemployment rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Sources: FRED, St. Louis Fed Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: June 3, 2019 14 Congressional results are mixed when a president wins or loses reelection President’s party gain/loss of seats in House or Senate VITAL STATISTICS ON CONGRESS ■ ■ House seats gained/lost by incumbent president’s party ■ ■ Senate seats gained/lost by incumbent president’s party 1 2012 8 Obama re-elected 4 2004 3 W. Bush re-elected -2 1996 -9 Clinton re-elected 0 1992 10 H.W. Bush not re-elected -2 1984 14 Reagan re-elected -12 1980 -34 Carter not re-elected 0 1976 -1 Ford loses election Sources: UC Santa Barbara Danari White | Slide last updated on: March 20, 2019 15 Historical partisan control of Congress after elections •House of Representatives 88TH-116TH CONGRESS 155 147 149 119 103 100 83 81 85 82 79 75 71 61 59 51 53 51 53 46 30 33 38 26 20 24 23 12 9 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 Senate 88TH-116TH CONGRESS 36 34 28 24 24 18 16 17 14 14 12 10 10 11 10 8 10 10 10 10 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 2 0 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 Source: United States Senate, Office of the Clerk of the House of Representatives Slide last updated on: March 19, 2018 16 Trump’s narrow victories in key states leave him vulnerable to even a small swing in 2020 10 states were decided by less than 5% ■ Clinton win ■ Trump win Clinton by 2.7% Clinton by 1.5% Trump by 1% Trump by 0.3% (19,995 votes) (44,470 votes) (27,257 votes) (13,080 votes) WA VT ME* MT ND VT-3 OR MN Clinton by 0.4% NH-4 (2,701 votes) ID SD WI NY NY WY MI IA PA Trump by 1.2% Clinton by 2.4% NV NE (68,236 votes) OH (26,434 votes) UT IL IN CO WV CA KS MO VA KY NC AZ TN Trump by 3.8% OK (177,009 votes) Trump by 3.9 % NM AR SC (91,682 votes) MS AL GA TX LA AK FL Trump by 1.2% (112,911 votes) HI *Clinton won Maine’s statewide vote, but Trump received an electoral vote for winning the 2nd district Source: National Journal research, 2019.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Charlie Sykes
    CHARLIE SYKES EDITOR-AT-LARGE, THE BULWARK Quick Summary Life in Brief Former conservative radio host and Wisconsin Hometown: Seattle, WA Republican kingmaker who gained national prominence as a leading voice in the Never Trump Current Residence: Mequon, WI movement and created the Bulwark website as a messaging arm for like-minded conservatives Education: • BA, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, • Love for journalism and politics heavily influenced 1975 by his father • Self-described “recovering liberal” who criticizes Family: both political parties for inflexibility and for • Married to Janet Riordan alienating those who reject status quo • Three children, two grandchildren • As conservative radio host, cultivated significant influence in Wisconsin GOP politics – quickly Work History: becoming a go-to stop for Republican candidates; • Editor-at-Large, The Bulwark, 2019- drew significant attention to issues like school Present choice • Host, The Daily Standard, 2018 • Became national figure after refusing to support • Contributing editor, The Weekly Donald Trump Standard • Co-founded the Bulwark with Bill Kristol, which • Contributor, NBC/MSNBC, 2016-present has become a leading mouthpiece of the Never • Host, Indivisible WNYC, 2017 Trump conservative movement • Editor-in-Chief, Right Wisconsin • Considers himself a “political orphan” in the era of • Radio show host, WTMJ, 1999-2016 Trump after exile from conservative movement • Radio host, WISN, 1989-93 whose political identity has changed many times • PR for Dave Schulz, Milwaukee
    [Show full text]
  • New Congress
    Elected Officials for 117th Congress, 1st session Green = new; Yellow = seat changed party; AL = At large (single district) Uncalled races are highlighted in red and will be updated as results are finalized ALABAMA Sen. Alex Padilla (appt’d) D-CA NEW Sen. Tommy Tuberville R-AL NEW Doug LaMalfa (R-CA-01) Re-elected Sen Richard Shelby R-AL Incumbent Jared Huffman (D-CA-02) Re-elected Jerry Carl (R-AL-01) NEW John Garamendi (D-CA-03) Re-elected Barry Moore (R-AL-02) NEW Tom McClintock (R-CA-04) Re-elected Mike Rogers (R-AL-03) Re-elected Mike Thompson (D-CA-05) Re-elected Robert Aderholt (R-AL-04) Re-elected Doris Matsui (D-CA-06) Re-elected Mo Brooks (R-AL-05) Re-elected Ami Bera (D-CA-07) Re-elected Gary Palmer (R-AL-06) Re-elected Jay Obernolte (R-CA-08) NEW Terri Sewell (D-AL-07) Re-elected Jerry McNerney (D-CA-09) Re-elected Josh Harder (D-CA-10) Re-elected ALASKA Mark DeSaulnier (D-CA-11) Re-elected Sen. Lisa Murkowski R-AK Incumbent Nancy Pelosi (D-CA-12) Re-elected Sen. Dan Sullivan R-AK Re-elected Barbara Lee (D-CA-13) Re-elected Don Young (R-AK-AL) Re-elected Jackie Speier (D-CA-14) Re-elected Eric Swalwell (D-CA-15) Re-elected ARIZONA Jim Costa (D-CA-16) Re-elected Sen. Mark Kelly D-AZ NEW Ro Khanna (D-CA-17) Re-elected Sen. Krysten Sinema D-AZ Incumbent Anna Eshoo (D-CA-18) Re-elected Tom O’Halleran (D-AZ-01) Re-elected Zoe Lofgren (D-CA-19) Re-elected Ann Kirkpatrick (D-AZ-02) Re-elected Jimmy Panetta (D-CA-20) Re-elected Raul Grijalva (D-AZ-03) Re-elected David Valadao (*prev served) (R-CA-21) NEW* Paul Gosar (R-AZ-04) Re-elected Devin Nunes (R-CA-22) Re-elected Andy Biggs (R-AZ-05) Re-elected Kevin McCarthy (R-CA-23) Re-elected Dave Schweikert (R-AZ-06) Re-elected Salud Carbajal (D-CA-24) Re-elected Ruben Gallego (D-AZ-07) Re-elected Mike Garcia (R-CA-25) Re-elected Debbie Lesko (R-AZ-08) Re-elected Julia Brownley (D-CA-26) Re-elected Greg Stanton (D-AZ-09) Re-elected Judy Chu (D-CA-27) Re-elected Adam Schiff (D-CA-28) Re-elected ARKANSAS Tony Cardenas (D-CA-29) Re-elected Sen.
    [Show full text]
  • Meet Seth Moulton
    Meet Seth Moulton Seth Moulton is a Democrat, entrepreneur, and Iraq War veteran who wants to represent a new generation of leaders in Washington. Born and raised in the 6th District of Massachusetts by his parents Tom, a retired real estate lawyer, and Lynn, a secretary at Massachusetts General Hospital, Seth is no stranger to hard work and service. He attended public schools, followed by Phillips Andover and Harvard College, which he could only afford thanks to student loans. Seth spent his summers throughout high school and college repairing boats in Marblehead and working on a shortline railroad in New Hampshire to help pay for school. Seth’s college mentor, the late Reverend Peter Gomes, often said that believing in the right thing, or supporting others who do the right thing, is not good enough; you ought to go do it. Following Reverend Gomes’ advice, Seth committed to serving others and decided to join the Marines shortly after his college graduation in June 2001. Later that same year, our country was under attack and Seth was called to duty. Seth served four tours in Iraq over five years. While he didn’t agree with the war, and had no idea it would occur when he joined, he served with honor as he never wanted someone else to go in his place. He was in the first Marine company to enter Baghdad, worked to establish a free and independent Iraqi media, and was hand-selected to work directly for General David Petraeus as a liaison to senior Iraqi military and political leaders south of Baghdad.
    [Show full text]
  • August 10, 2021 the Honorable Nancy Pelosi the Honorable Steny
    August 10, 2021 The Honorable Nancy Pelosi The Honorable Steny Hoyer Speaker Majority Leader U.S. House of Representatives U.S. House of Representatives Washington, D.C. 20515 Washington, D.C. 20515 Dear Speaker Pelosi and Leader Hoyer, As we advance legislation to rebuild and renew America’s infrastructure, we encourage you to continue your commitment to combating the climate crisis by including critical clean energy, energy efficiency, and clean transportation tax incentives in the upcoming infrastructure package. These incentives will play a critical role in America’s economic recovery, alleviate some of the pollution impacts that have been borne by disadvantaged communities, and help the country build back better and cleaner. The clean energy sector was projected to add 175,000 jobs in 2020 but the COVID-19 pandemic upended the industry and roughly 300,000 clean energy workers were still out of work in the beginning of 2021.1 Clean energy, energy efficiency, and clean transportation tax incentives are an important part of bringing these workers back. It is critical that these policies support strong labor standards and domestic manufacturing. The importance of clean energy tax policy is made even more apparent and urgent with record- high temperatures in the Pacific Northwest, unprecedented drought across the West, and the impacts of tropical storms felt up and down the East Coast. We ask that the infrastructure package prioritize inclusion of a stable, predictable, and long-term tax platform that: Provides long-term extensions and expansions to the Production Tax Credit and Investment Tax Credit to meet President Biden’s goal of a carbon pollution-free power sector by 2035; Extends and modernizes tax incentives for commercial and residential energy efficiency improvements and residential electrification; Extends and modifies incentives for clean transportation options and alternative fuel infrastructure; and Supports domestic clean energy, energy efficiency, and clean transportation manufacturing.
    [Show full text]
  • Marc Short Chief of Staff, Vice President Pence
    MARC SHORT CHIEF OF STAFF, VICE PRESIDENT PENCE u Life in Brief Quick Summary Hometown: Virginia Beach, VA Lifelong conservative GOP operative who rose through party ranks to become a trusted Mike Current Residence: Arlington, VA Pence confidante. Utilizes expansive network of Koch allies, White House staff, and congressional Education ties to push Administration priorities • BA, Washington & Lee, 1992 • MBA, University of Virginia, 2004 • Polished and pragmatic tactician who plays a behind-the-scenes role advising Vice President Family: Pence and other senior leaders • Married to Kristen Short, who has • Early conservative political views shaped By his worked for Young America’s Foundation, father, Dick Short, a wealthy GOP donor well- Freedom Alliance, and the Charles G. connected to Virginia GOP circles Koch Foundation • Extensive experience with Freedom Partners and • Three school-aged children the Koch Brothers exposed him to large network of GOP donors and influencers Work History • Earned reputation as smart strategist on the Hill • Chief of Staff to the Vice President of the working closely with then-Rep. Mike Pence United States, 2019-Present • Provided GOP estaBlishment credentials and • Senior Fellow at UVA Miller Center of congressional experience to Trump White House PuBlic Affairs, 2018-19 to advance Administration’s early agenda, • Contributor for CNN, 2018-19 including on 2017 tax cuts and Neil Gorsuch’s • Partner at Guidepost Strategies, 2018-19 confirmation to the Supreme Court • White House Director of Legislative •
    [Show full text]
  • The Weekly Standard…Don’T Settle for Less
    “THE ORACLE OF AMERICAN POLITICS” — Wolf Blitzer, CNN …don’t settle for less. POSITIONING STATEMENT The Weekly Standard…don’t settle for less. Through original reporting and prose known for its boldness and wit, The Weekly Standard and weeklystandard.com serve an audience of more than 3.2 million readers each month. First-rate writers compose timely articles and features on politics and elections, defense and foreign policy, domestic policy and the courts, books, art and culture. Readers whose primary common interests are the political developments of the day value the critical thinking, rigorous thought, challenging ideas and compelling solutions presented in The Weekly Standard print and online. …don’t settle for less. EDITORIAL: CONTENT PROFILE The Weekly Standard: an informed perspective on news and issues. 18% Defense and 24% Foreign Policy Books and Arts 30% Politics and 28% Elections Domestic Policy and the Courts The value to The Weekly Standard reader is the sum of the parts, the interesting mix of content, the variety of topics, type of writers and topics covered. There is such a breadth of content from topical pieces to cultural commentary. Bill Kristol, Editor …don’t settle for less. EDITORIAL: WRITERS Who writes matters: outstanding political writers with a compelling point of view. William Kristol, Editor Supreme Court and the White House for the Star before moving to the Baltimore Sun, where he was the national In 1995, together with Fred Barnes and political correspondent. From 1985 to 1995, he was John Podhoretz, William Kristol founded a senior editor and White House correspondent for The new magazine of politics and culture New Republic.
    [Show full text]
  • Widgets Weekly: the Art of Covering Congressional Minutiae
    Widgets Weekly: The Art of Covering Congressional Minutiae To compile this chart of trade press organizations, The Politico reviewed the lists of all credentialed print media that covered the 109th Congress. The lists are compiled by the House and Senate press galleries. (The list for the current Congress will not be available for several months.) For the purposes of this list, we defined the trade press narrowly, excluding congressional newspapers such as The Hill and Roll Call. (We also would have excluded ourselves, but The Politico began publishing during this session of Congress.) We also excluded most of the financial press unless the publication was tailored to bond traders or another very specific sector. Finally, we included what's referred to as the newsletter press, such as BNA. Please let us know in the comments section - or write directly to us mailto: [email protected] - if we excluded one that should be included or included one we should have left out. Source: Congressional Press Galleries Credentialed Trade Publications National Journal’s Technology Daily IDG News Service Telecommunications Reports Institutional Investor American Banker Internewsletter Atlantic Information Services Interpreter Releases Penton Media Inc. Liability & Insurance Week Food Chemical News Linn's Stamp News Research Institute of America Group LP/Gas Washington Technology Mail on Sunday Bond Buyer Mass Transit Lawyer CQ Researcher Medical Devices Report IMAS Publishing Multichannel News Inside Mortgage Finance National Law Journal Inside Washington Publishers Natural Gas Week McGraw-Hill Co. Oberle Communications Army Times Publishing Co. Oil & Gas Journal Energy Daily Pesticide Report Federal Employees News Digest Pharmaceutical Executive Government Contractor PR Week Human Events Public Lands News Natural Gas Intelligence Radio & Records U.
    [Show full text]
  • POLITICAL REPORTING in the AGE of INFOTAINMENT Melissa
    POLITICAL REPORTING IN THE AGE OF INFOTAINMENT Melissa Oribhabor Jennifer Rowe, Committee Chair August 2014 Introduction The effects of infotainment have been felt by the news industry since politicians started appearing on talK shows and comedy shows, hoping to humanize themselves to the voting public. One of the earliest examples was in 1968 when presidential candidate Richard Nixon appeared on “Rowan and Martin’s Laugh-In” (Xenos 198). Even earlier than that, John F. Kennedy appeared on the “The Tonight Show” with Jack Paar in 1960. But with the 24-hour news cycle and the Internet drawing the public away from traditional forms of news, infotainment has become even more prevalent during the past 30 years. Infotainment can be seen easily on television, with programs such as “The Daily Show” and CNN’s “RidicuList” with Anderson Cooper; however, infotainment in terms of print journalism has not been studied as in- depth. This research not only looks at infotainment in print journalism but more specifically how it affects political journalists. Literature Review Moy, Xenos and Hess in their 2005 article “Communication and Citizenship: Mapping the Political Effects of Infotainment” define infotainment as the convergence of news and entertainment. The paper states that in recent years news programs started developing more elements of entertainment, and entertainment programs started to disseminate the news. The term “infotainment” is largely used in reference to entertainment programs that have elements of news (Moy et. al. 2005, 113). “Soft news” and “infotainment” are often used interchangeably in research on this topic. Soft news includes sensationalized stories, human-interest stories, and stories that focus more on entertainment over serious hard news content (Jebril et.
    [Show full text]
  • 2012 Election Results Coastal Commission Legislative Report
    STATE OF CALIFORNIA—NATURAL RESOURCES AGENCY EDMUND G. BROWN, JR., GOVERNOR CALIFORNIA COASTAL COMMISSION 45 FREMONT, SUITE 2000 SAN FRANCISCO, CA 94105- 2219 VOICE (415) 904- 5200 FAX (415) 904- 5400 TDD (415) 597-5885 W-19a LEGISLATIVE REPORT 2012 ELECTION—CALIFORNIA COASTAL DISTRICTS DATE: January 9, 2013 TO: California Coastal Commission and Interested Public Members FROM: Charles Lester, Executive Director Sarah Christie, Legislative Director Michelle Jesperson, Federal Programs Manager RE: 2012 Election Results in Coastal Districts This memo describes the results of the 2012 elections in California’s coastal districts. The November 2012 General Election in California was the first statewide election to feel the full effect of two significant new electoral policies. The first of these, the “Top Two Candidates Open Primary Act,” was approved by voters in 2010 (Proposition 14). Under the new system, all legislative, congressional and constitutional office candidates now appear on the same primary ballot, regardless of party affiliation. The two candidates receiving the most votes in the Primary advance to the General Election, regardless of party affiliation. The June 2012 primary was the first time voters utilized the new system, and the result was numerous intra-party competitions in the November election as described below. The other significant new factor in this election was the newly drawn political districts. The boundaries of legislative and congressional seats were redrawn last year as part of the decennial redistricting process, whereby voting districts are reconfigured based on updated U.S. Census population data. Until 2011, these maps have been redrawn by the majority party in the Legislature, with an emphasis on party registration.
    [Show full text]
  • April 23, 2019 April Omni B Survey, Data for Progress Items
    To: Data for Progress From: YouGov Blue Date: April 23, 2019 April Omni B survey, Data for Progress Items [primaryvote] Next year, there will be a presidential $state_election_text in [state] to select nominees for president for the Democratic and Republican parties. Will you... <1> Definitely [vote or participate] <2> Probably [vote or participate] <3> Maybe [vote or participate] <4> Probably not [vote or participate] <5> Definitely not [vote or participate] [partyvote] And if you were to [vote or participate], would you [vote or participate] in the... <1> Democratic [primary or caucus] <2> Republican [primary or caucus] <3 fixed> Not sure [CHOICE20] Thinking about the 2020 Democratic presidential [primary or caucus] in your state, which candidate or candidates are you considering voting for? Select all that apply. <1> Joe Biden <2> Bernie Sanders <3> Kamala Harris <4> Beto O’Rourke <5> Cory Booker <6> Amy Klobuchar <7> Elizabeth Warren <8> John Hickenlooper <9> Kirsten Gillibrand <10> John Delaney <11> Julián Castro <12> Stacey Abrams <13> Tammy Baldwin <14> Bill DeBlasio <15> Tulsi Gabbard <16> Pete Buttigieg <17> Jay Inslee <18> Tim Ryan <19> Seth Moulton <20> Eric Swalwell <21> Andrew Yang <22> Marianne Williamson <23> Mike Gravel <24> Steve Bullock <25> Michael Bennet <26> Wayne Messam <27 fixed> None of these [RANK20] And of those candidates, please ranK them from the candidate you most prefer to the candidate you would least prefer. <1 (if selected in CHOICE20)> Joe Biden <2 (if selected in CHOICE20)> > Bernie Sanders <3 (if selected
    [Show full text]
  • Schmuhl Enters Indem Chair Race “Jan
    V26, N24 Thursday, Feb. 11, 2021 Schmuhl enters INDem chair race “Jan. 6 really affected Forming a ticket me,” said Schmuhl, who has run campaigns for with Myra Eldridge, Joe Donnelly and Shelli Yoder. “The presidency Schmuhl has backing of Joe Biden is exciting. of Joe Donnelly The leadership of the DNC under Jaime Har- By BRIAN A. HOWEY rison, the former state INDIANAPOLIS – Less than a party chair from South year after running Pete Buttigieg’s mete- Carolina and a person oric $100 million presidential campaign I know, is also exciting. and three months after he appeared to Some of those bigger pass on a run pieces came together. for Indiana I also heard from a lot Democratic of Democrats from all Party chair, over the state who were Mike Schmuhl urging me to reconsider. officially kicked And I did.” off that cam- Schmuhl will face paign, running in tandem with off with long-time party Marion County Clerk Myra Eldridge. operative Trish Whitcomb, who told HPI Wednesday morn- Schmuhl told Howey Politics Indiana that the ing, “I continue to get people reaching out to me. I’m glad Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol and outreach from that we have such talented people who want to be Demo- scores of Hoosier Democrats convinced him to reconsider. Continued on page 3 The mob & Mike Pence By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS – For those of us in Indiana who know Mike Pence, Wednesday’s video timeline was ab- solutely chilling. It is by chance that he survived the Jan.
    [Show full text]
  • Jonathan Rauch
    Jonathan Rauch Jonathan Rauch, a contributing editor of National Journal and The Atlantic, is the author of several books and many articles on public policy, culture, and economics. He is also a guest scholar at the Brookings Institution, a leading Washington think-tank. He is winner of the 2005 National Magazine Award for columns and commentary and the 2010 National Headliner Award for magazine columns. His latest book is Gay Marriage: Why It Is Good for Gays, Good for Straights, and Good for America, published in 2004 by Times Books (Henry Holt). It makes the case that same-sex marriage would benefit not only gay people but society and the institution of marriage itself. Although much of his writing has been on public policy, he has also written on topics as widely varied as adultery, agriculture, economics, gay marriage, height discrimination, biological rhythms, number inflation, and animal rights. His multiple-award-winning column, “Social Studies,” was published in National Journal (a Washington-based weekly on government, politics, and public policy) from 1998 to 2010, and his features appeared regularly both there and in The Atlantic. Among the many other publications for which he has written are The New Republic, The Economist, Reason, Harper’s, Fortune, Reader’s Digest, U.S. News & World Report, The New York Times newspaper and magazine, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, The Los Angeles Times, The New York Post, Slate, The Chronicle of Higher Education, The Public Interest, The Advocate, The Daily, and others. Rauch was born and raised in Phoenix, Arizona, and graduated in 1982 from Yale University.
    [Show full text]